August 10th, 2023: Severino, Schmidt, Loáisiga, Volpe, Holmes, Rortvedt, Postseason Race, Mailbag

UPDATE: Not even five minutes after I hit publish Erik Boland reported the White Sox claimed Deivi García off waivers, so that's that. So long, Deivi.

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Old buddy Chad Green is working his way back from Tommy John surgery with the Blue Jays, which is bad news for the Yankees and their fading postseason hopes. I bring this up because, during a rehab game Tuesday night, Green got hit in the back of the head by the catcher’s throw on a stolen base attempt. Here’s video. Got him pretty good. Green is in concussion protocol now and will miss at least a week. Poor guy. Between blowing out his elbow on a pickoff throw (not even on a pitch) and taking a catcher’s throw to the back of the head, it’s been a rough two years for him, physically. Get well soon, Greenie. Anyway, the Yankees have an off-day, so here is Friday morning’s post Thursday afternoon.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees are 2-7-3 in their last 12 series and the two series wins came against the Athletics (33-82) and Royals (37-79). We have a pretty good idea of this team’s capabilities now. They can win a series against the extremely bad A’s and Royals, but taking a series from the slightly less awful White Sox (47-69) is a bridge too far. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

This should be it for Severino

The Yankees were smart to give Luis Severino an opener Wednesday. It didn’t work, he got hit hard anyway, but sending him out there as a traditional starter wasn’t working. They had to try something. Now we know keeping him away from the top of the lineup won’t cure whatever ails him. This sucks so much, but the Yankees can’t use Severino in any sort of meaningful capacity again if they’re serious about reaching the postseason.

“I’m just having the worst year of my life in baseball,” Severino told Greg Joyce after the loss Wednesday. “I’m not sure (what else I can do), but right now, I’m willing to do anything to get better. I love being a starter, but right now, this year has not been working.”

Realistically, the Yankees have three options with Severino. In no particular order:

• Continue starting him/using as a bulk innings guy behind an opener.
• Demote him to the bullpen and use him in low leverage spots.
• Designate him for assignment.

There is no sending Severino to the minors to work on things the way the Blue Jays sent Alek Manoah to rookie ball. Severino has enough service time to refuse a minor league demotion, elect free agency, and keep his contract. I haven’t found a single veteran player in this position who accepted the demotion. (The Yankees wanted to demote Carl Pavano, but he said no.)

Complicating things is Carlos Rodón’s injury (he played catch in Chicago but hasn’t thrown off a mound yet) and Domingo Germán leaving the team. The Yankees are short on starters. Randy Vásquez will start in Rodón’s place Friday. They could have started Nestor Cortes that day, but they want to give him extra rest*, so Vásquez will have to start Wednesday as well. Starting Vásquez on Saturday rather than Friday would have allowed the Yankees to avoid using him again before next Thursday’s off-day. Now he has to start twice before the next off-day.

* Thursday’s off-day (today) already gave Cortes an extra day of rest. He’ll be on two extra days Saturday. Considering he had trouble recovering between starts because of his injury earlier this season, I’d be lying if I said pushing him back another day didn’t make me a little worried. Is he still not recovering normally?

Other than Vásquez and Jhony Brito, the Severino alternatives in Triple-A are Clayton Beeter and Will Warren, neither of whom has pitched well with Scranton, though no one has pitched well in Triple-A this year. The strike zone is the size of a postage stamp with the automatic zone. Warren doesn’t have to go on the 40-man roster until next offseason and that’s a consideration. Once he goes on the 40-man, he stays on the 40-man. Beeter has to go on the 40-man this offseason. He’s the better call up candidate from a roster flexibility standpoint.

Mitch Spence has pitched well by Triple-A standards this year and could be a short-term option. Similar to Brody Koerner in 2021, Spence is someone the Yankees could call up, plug in for a few innings, then designate for assignment without losing sleep if he gets claimed on waivers. Point is, the Yankees must find an alternative to Severino. His performance has become untenable.

Rodón is eligible to return Tuesday, Aug. 22nd. Assuming he can return after the minimum stay (a big assumption), the Yankees will only need to use Severino (or Severino’s spot) once between now and then. My guess is they bite the bullet, give Severino that one start (or pair him with an opener), and kick the can down the road until Rodón returns. After that, they could keep Vásquez in the rotation and move Severino to the bullpen (I would be surprised if they release him even though it would not be unwarranted given his performance).

“We’ve got to continue to discuss all options, as well as work alongside him and try to get him right,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “You still see the glimpses of it in there, but we’ve got to keep exploring things.”

After 63.2 innings of 8.06 ERA (6.64 FIP) ball, it’s time to pull the plug. It sucks, Severino is one of my favorite Yankees of the last 10 years, but this can’t continue. The Yankees can’t have it both ways. They can’t treat these games as so important that Aaron Judge has to play with a torn toe ligament while also continuing to run Severino out there every fifth day. This isn’t working for the Yankees, it isn’t working for Severino, it isn’t working for anyone.

“We gotta win, but we’re also having a little problem with enough bodies right now. We’ve had some guys go down,” Boone told Joyce. “We gotta find a way and that means unlocking some people that are going through scuffles. If that doesn’t happen on some level, it ain’t happening. We need to get some guys turned around and contributors. Sevy’s part of that.”

Schmidt’s continued effectiveness (and workload)

Another very good start for Clarke Schmidt on Tuesday. The White Sox are a good matchup for him – their lineup struggles with spin and has the highest chase rate in baseball – and he struck out seven in 5.1 innings of one-run ball. After a rough first few weeks, Schmidt is down to a 4.23 ERA (4.23 FIP) through 23 starts and 115 innings. He’s been really sharp lately.

“It’s baseball, and it's inevitable that you're going to face adversity, obviously. Sometimes it's worse than others. The way that you kind of handle adversity in this game tells you a lot about yourself,” Schmidt told Tim Stebbins after the game. “For me, I was just kind of continuing to put the work in and continuing to trust in my stuff and that the results were going to come. When they did start coming, once that ball got rolling down the hill, it was like it couldn't be stopped, in a sense.”

Those 115 innings are a career high. Schmidt’s previous career high were the 111.1 innings he threw as a sophomore at South Carolina in 2016, and college innings are way different than MLB innings. Last season he threw 93 innings between the regular season and postseason. Schmidt looks strong, though red flags are beginning to pop up. His release point is dropping, so his arm slot is lower …

… and his average sinker velocity is 93.0 mph in July and August after sitting at 94.7 mph in April and May. Less velocity and a lower arm slot suggest – but do not confirm – there is some level of fatigue. That doesn’t mean Schmidt won’t get a second wind at some point. It just means he’s thrown more innings than ever, and this is how his body is responding at this moment in time.

“I think physically, I feel great,” Schmidt told Joyce (subs. req’d) last month. “I have a good routine in between starts, so I’ve been bouncing back good. I don’t really feel any fatigue body-wise, so it’s been good.”

Teams are much smarter and have much more data now than they did even five years ago. The whole “don’t increase your workload more than 30 innings from one year to the next” thing is outdated. They monitor biomechanics and monitor how pitches are working and look for red flags, and act accordingly. Counting innings is a good proxy, though far from a complete picture.

“We haven’t had that conversation yet as far as, ‘We’re not going to let him go past 130 or 140 (innings).’ But we’re open-minded too,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Joyce (subs. req’d). “... So in the meantime, if he’s responding well and everything’s checking out, we’ll kind of keep chugging along.”

With Schmidt, the concerns are two-fold. First, the Yankees have to keep his long-term future in mind. Schmidt has an elbow injury history (there’s a reason he’d never topped 100 innings as a pro until this year) and he’s a good, young, cheap, and controllable starter. You want to protect his future because he can be very valuable to the Yankees, even as a league average No. 4.

And second, I think it’s fair to say Schmidt has been the Yankees’ second best starter this year, at least over the last two months or so, and they want him to be effective as long as possible. If that means pushing a start back a few days or skipping one outright, then that’s what needs to happen. What good is Schmidt if he’s out of gas in late August or September (or October)?

Managing Schmidt’s workload the rest of the way is necessary and the Yankees have to strike a balance between protecting his future and doing what they can to get to the postseason in 2023. Schmidt’s progress is one of the few encouraging signs in a season that has otherwise been pretty disappointing. The Yankees look to have themselves a pretty good young starter here. Major props to Schmidt for turning his season around after that rough start.

“There’s definitely personal goals that you have, and one of those was I wanted to get 30 starts and I wanted to get as many innings as I possibly can,” Schmidt told Joyce (subs. req’d). “I’m just trying to continue to build that workload and continue to put up innings and go deep in games.”

Loáisiga returns and Deivi DFA’d

Welcome back, Jonathan Loáisiga. Loaisiga made only three appearances in April before having surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, and, in his first game back Tuesday, he looked like himself. His first pitch was one of his patented two-seamers in under a righty’s hands:

Make contact with that and the best case scenario is what, breaking your bat and hitting a weak roller? Fouling the pitch into your leg? Loáisiga’s stuff is vicious. His velocity Tuesday was where it normally sits and he located well too. It was impossible to tell he missed four months. Glad to have Loáisiga back. He gives the Yankees another needed high-leverage option.

“Game 1 and he’s absolutely electric,” Mike King told Max Goodman (after looking pretty electric himself Tuesday). “It’s just good to have our bullpen guys back. We gel together down there. He was such a big part of our team for the last few years.”

Erstwhile top pitching prospect Deivi García was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot when Loáisiga was activated off the 60-day injured list. I figured Franchy Cordero or Anthony Misiewicz would go, but nope, the Yankees officially pulled the plug on Deivi. Since his promising big league cameo in 2020, García has been a mess. His minor league numbers:

García had a minor finger injury last summer and the Yankees used it as an opportunity to send him to Extended Spring Training for a reset, and also keep him off the active roster long enough that he qualified for a fourth minor league option this year. Deivi moved into a multi-inning bullpen role this season and hey, it got him back to the Bronx. He even picked up a three-inning save on May 10th (video). Other than that though, it’s been really bad the last three years.

"Just really has struggled to find that consistency," Boone told Garrett Stepien about the decision to DFA García. "Has had some injuries that derailed him a bit here in different seasons, but really just struggled – whether it was sometimes the stuff would come and go, other times the command was kind of an issue – so a guy that kind of really burst through, kind of shot through the system there in what was '19 or '20, yeah, it's tough.”

Even at his prospect peak, García was risky. Riskier than the typical top pitching prospect. I had him as the No. 2 prospect in the system in 2021 and noted he telegraphs his curveball, so it doesn’t play as well as the pitch data says it should, and also that sub-5-foot-10 righties have a really poor track record. Only 14 of them have amassed +10 WAR in the Expansion Era (since 1961). Short righties tend to be homer prone and look at Deivi’s Triple-A dinger rates in the table.

The Yankees have until Monday to put García through waivers and he has to go through waivers. The trade deadline has passed. There’s no working out a deal now (I’m sure they tried before the deadline). Maybe Deivi gets claimed, maybe he doesn’t. I dunno. The Cubs tried sneaking righty and 2019 first rounder Ryan Jensen through waivers the other day and he got claimed, though he has options left for 2024 and 2025 and a much shorter track record of being bad in Triple-A.

Even if García clears waivers, this effectively ends his time with the Yankees. He’ll be a minor league free agent after the season and will presumably look for a fresh start elsewhere. He’s only 24 and he’s a recent top prospect. Some team will give him a minor league deal and hope their pitching people crack the code. I know the Yankees are idiots who screw up all their prospects, blah blah blah, but Deivi always walked a bit of a tightrope. It just didn’t work out. Too bad.

"(The DFA) doesn't mean the end for him either. He's still a young man and still with an opportunity to get better,” Boone told Stepien. “And as we've seen throughout this game, paths aren't always easy and linear. This game's filled with stories of ups and downs and guys that get to the big leagues early and take a hit and struggle and can re-find it or continue to make adjustments, so that opportunity's probably still there for him."

Miscellany

With Wednesday’s pinch-hitting appearance, Anthony Volpe has gotten into all 115 games this season (107 starts and eight appearances off the bench). Why he pinch-hit for Jake Bauers with the bases empty rather than Oswaldo Cabrera with the bases loaded, I do now know, but Volpe is hitting .192/.302/.274 (67 wRC+) since the All-Star break, so it probably wouldn't have mattered either way. The last Yankees to play in every game of the season were Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodriguez in 2005. Robbie Canó came close a few times too (161 games in 2009 and 2012). Knowing the Yankees, I’m sure Volpe will get a full day off at some point … Boone didn’t pinch-hit Volpe for one of the worst hitters in baseball with the bases loaded Wednesday and he didn’t use Clay Holmes to keep the deficit at 5-2 in the bottom of the eighth inning either. Holmes hadn’t pitched in four days and there was an off-day coming Thursday. He’s appeared in only three of the team’s last 12 games. It probably wouldn’t have mattered Wednesday, but if the Yankees want to win more games, they have to put their best players on the field more often. Boone needs to be more flexible with Holmes … Five starts in the last eight games for Ben Rortvedt, including two sets of back-to-back starts. He has also caught all four Gerrit Cole starts since Jose Trevino went on the injured list, and that pairing seems to be working well. Rortvedt hasn’t hit at all (1-for-26 since being called back up, albeit with only six strikeouts) though the Yankees are playing him a bunch. I like it. Let’s see what he can do. We know what Kyle Higashioka can do. Let’s find out what the Yankees have in Rortvedt, or at least begin the process of finding out what the Yankees have in Rortvedt … And finally, in their last four games the Yankees struck out 47 times and walked 32 times in 169 plate appearances. That’s a 27.8% strikeout rate and an 18.9% walk rate, so 46.7% of the hitters the Yankees sent to the plate the last four games struck out or walked. How boring. Walks are good, I know that, but at one point the Yankees drew 13 walks in eight innings spanning Sunday and Monday, and just one of the 13 came around to score. Earlier this year the Yankees weren’t getting many runners on base. They had a sub-.300 OBP as a team for several weeks. Now they’re getting guys on base and not driving them in. This feels more familiar. Maybe the offense really is back, and by back I mean back to the 2017-22 offense that still wasn’t good enough. Keep getting men on base and the runs will come eventually, I yell into the void.

2. Breaking down the postseason race. You’re smart. You know the Yankees are in a dire situation even with 47 games remaining. 47 games is a lot of games, but the Yankees are 5.5 games behind the third Wild Card spot with three (really five) very good teams ahead of them. Here are the Wild Card standings entering play Thursday:

1. Rays: 69-57 (+4 GB)
2. Astros: 66-49 (+1.5 GB)
3. Blue Jays: 65-51 (0 GB)
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4. Mariners: 62-52 (2 GB)
5. Red Sox: 59-55 (5 GB)
6. Yankees: 59-56 (5.5 GB)
7. Angels: 58-58 (7 GB)
8. Guardians: 55-60 (9.5 GB)

(The Rangers are two games up on Houston in the AL West, so there’s a chance they switch places. We can worry about that and what it means for the Yankees in the Wild Card race when it happens.)

The Mariners have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break (17-8) and Toronto is 11-6 in their last 17 games. They also have the easiest remaining schedule among Wild Card hopefuls, according to FanGraphs. From Aug. 28th to Sept. 10th, Toronto gets to play 12 straight games against the Nationals, Rockies, Athletics, and Royals. Lordy.

In terms of difficulty, the Yankees have about an average remaining schedule compared to other Wild Card contenders. Of course, opposition doesn’t matter to this team. The Yankees have lost series to the Cardinals, Rockies, and White Sox (twice!) in the last few weeks. Here is the grim postseason odds graph:

Those 8.4% postseason odds are the Yankees’ lowest since the end of the 2016 season, when they missed the postseason. At no point from 2017-22 did their postseason odds dip below 24.3%, per FanGraphs, and I count only 28 days total that they were under 40%. Most of those came early in 2017, before we knew Aaron Judge is a monster and that team was pretty good.

5.5 games back may not look like much, but let’s not kid ourselves here, the Yankees are in a very bad position. They’re chasing multiple good teams and are 29-36 in their last 65 games, including 5-8 since Judge returned. I want to take a step back and take a big picture look at the postseason race. Let’s break down the Yankees and their postseason outlook on the off-day.

The race to 90 wins

Current records indicate it will take 91 wins to get the third Wild Card spot, but let’s call it an even 90 for now. It’s hard to see a sub-90 win team getting to the postseason in the American League this year. 90 wins is a reasonable target to at least stay in the race.

To get to 90 wins, the Yankees must go 31-16 in their final 47 games. They have won only 31 of their last 67 games, so that’s not good, and their best 47-game stretch this season is 28-19 from April 15th to June 4th, which isn’t that much worse than 31-16. The Yankees last won 31 of 47 games in the first half last year, when they had that unreal start to the season. This is largely the same group of players. Who’s to say they can’t go on a 47-game heater again?

The bad news is the Yankees must have their best 47-game stretch of the season just to get to the 90 wins that might get you the third Wild Card spot. The worse news is they also need no more than two of the other Wild Card contenders to reach 90 wins. Here is what all those other clubs have to do to fall short of 90 wins:

• Rays: 20-26 or worse
• Astros: 23-24 or worse
• Blue Jays: 24-22 or worse
• Mariners: 27-21 or worse
• Red Sox: 30-18 or worse
• Angels: 31-15 or worse
• Guardians: 34-13 or worse

Tampa is 21-25 in their last 46 games. Going 20-26 the rest of the way isn’t out of the question. That’s what needs to happen though. The Yankees have to play their best baseball of the year to get to 90 wins and they need no fewer than five of those seven teams above to do that.

The American League is rough, man. The Padres lost three of four to the Dodgers last weekend and they gained half a game in the Wild Card race. The Yankees can’t do that. Every night one or two or four of their Wild Card competitors picks up a win. It’s very tough to make up ground that way. It’s only August, but the Yankees already need help. They need other teams to beat their Wild Card competitors while also taking care of their own business.

Tiebreaker scenarios

All ties are broken mathematically now. Even ties in which one team will make the postseason and the other will not. MLB and the MLBPA did away with Game 163 tiebreakers as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and it is incredibly lame. There have been some all-time classic Game 163s. I wasn’t around for Bucky Dent, but I remember watching the Tigers vs. Twins chaos in 2009 (video) and waiting to see who the Yankees would play in the ALDS.

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. After that it gets complicated. Here are the Yankees’ tiebreaker scenarios (i.e. the season series) with all the other the teams in the Wild Card race:

• Rays: Rays lead 6-4 with three games remaining
• Astros: Tied 2-2 with three games remaining
• Blue Jays: Yankees lead 4-3 with six games remaining
• Mariners: Yankees won season series 4-2
• Red Sox: Red Sox lead 5-1 with seven games remaining
• Angels: Angels won season series 4-2
• Guardians: Yankees won season series 4-2

I should mention the Rangers too in case the Astros move into first place. Texas won the season series 4-3 against the Yankees, so they have the tiebreaker. The Yankees have to go at least 6-1 in those last seven games against the Red Sox to clinch the tiebreaker and yeah, that’s not going to happen. They can finish with the same record as Seattle and Cleveland, but not the Angels.

Those last six games with the Blue Jays are all late in the season – they play two three-game series within the final four series of the season – and are the last hope. Stay within six games of Toronto the rest of the way and the Yankees will at least have a chance, assuming the Blue Jays remain in a Wild Card spot. Toronto has to go 4-2 in those six games to clinch the tiebreaker against the Yankees, but if they go 4-2, they’ll bury the Yankees and the tiebreaker is irrelevant.

The most straightforward path to a Wild Card spot is passing the Mariners and Red Sox, using those last six head-to-head games to chase down the Blue Jays, and then either claiming the third Wild Card spot outright or leaning on the tiebreaker to finish ahead of Toronto. Easy peasy.

The third Wild Card spot is best, yes?

Yes. The postseason format is screwy and, on paper, the third Wild Card spot is preferable to the second or even the first Wild Card spot. I’d rank the six postseason berths like so (we can safely assume the AL East and AL West winners will have a better record than the AL Central winner at this point):

1. Division winner with the second best record: Get a Wild Card Series bye, then play the winner of the AL Central vs. third Wild Card team in the ALDS

2. Division winner with the best record: Get a Wild Card Series bye, then play the winner of the first vs. second Wild Card teams in the ALDS

3. AL Central winner: Host the third Wild Card team in the Wild Card Series, then play the division winner with second best record if you advance to ALDS

4. Third Wild Card team: Go on the road to play the AL Central winner in the Wild Card Series, then play the division winner with the second best record if you advance to ALDS

5. First Wild Card team: Host the second Wild Card team in the Wild Card Series, then play the division winner with the best record if you advance to ALDS

6. Second Wild Card team: Go on road to play the first Wild Card team in the Wild Card Series, then play the division winner with the best record if you advance to ALDS

Using the current standings as an example, the Astros sit in the second Wild Card spot and would have to go on the road to play the Rays in the Wild Card Series, and then advance to play the Orioles in the ALDS. Would you rather do that, or be the third Wild Card team and go on the road to play the Twins in the Wild Card Series, then get the Rangers in the ALDS? Exactly.

Realistically, it’s third Wild Card spot or bust for the Yankees. Climbing into the second spot is so very unlikely, and that’s fine. On paper, I’d rather be the third Wild Card team than the second just because the AL Central is so weak. (Self-promotion: I wrote a thing at CBS this week about why the AL Central is baseball’s weakest division, if you’re interested.)

Postseason schedule

MLB announced the postseason schedule earlier this week and the 2-2-1 and 2-3-2 formats are back. Last year’s postseason had fewer off-days because they had to cram the new format into the existing postseason schedule while also leaving enough time to make up games postponed by the lockout. Here are the postseason dates potentially relevant to the Yankees:

• Wild Card Series: Oct. 3-5
• ALDS: Oct. 7-13
• ALCS: Oct. 15-23
• World Series: Oct. 27 to Nov. 4

The season starting in March and ending in November is just the way it is now. The MLBPA has been pushing for a 154-game season the last few years, which could bring back the days of Opening Day in April or the World Series ending in October (or both!), though that’s not gonna happen anytime soon. That’s a thing for the next CBA in 2027.

Anyway, those are the postseason dates. We can worry about what they mean for the Yankees and how they’ll line up their rotation and all that when they actually get to the postseason. I’m not wasting any energy on that now, when they’re 5.5 games out on Aug. 10th. Point is, things are bad. Climbing up the standings and making a real run at a Wild Card spot is not impossible, but it is improbable. The Yankees have dug themselves quite a hole here.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. I wrote about prospects C Agustin Ramirez and RHP Drew Thorpe earlier this week and then the Yankees promoted both of them to Double-A Somerset a day later. Thorpe will make his first start with the Patriots on Friday. Ramirez is 1-for-9 in his first two Double-A games with a 114 mph single (video). The Ramirez promotion surprises me. This is his first year above rookie ball and he played 56 games in Low-A and only 27 games in High-A before being moved up to Double-A. Granted, he mashed in those 27 games (.384/.430/.714 and 230 wRC+), but it’s still only 27 games. Maybe the Yankees want to see Ramirez with more advanced pitchers (both hitting them and catching them) before making a 40-man roster decision this offseason? I dunno.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Keith asks: What are your thoughts on Cole exercising his opt-out after next season? I am guessing the Yankees would void it with the extra year, but still interesting.

Gerrit Cole can opt out after next season but the Yankees can void the opt out by exercising a one-year, $36M club option that tacks a tenth year onto his contract at the same annual salary. At this point it is very likely Cole will use the opt out and the Yankees will pick up the option to keep him. The end of 2024 is a long, long way away though. What if Cole’s dingeritis returns? What if the Yankees crash hard next year and are a bad team with bloated contracts like the 2013-17 Phillies? Maybe they would just walk away and let another team pay for Cole’s age 34+ seasons, which are likely to be decline years.

Another possibility is the Yankees are bad next year, Cole is amazing and clearly going to opt out, and the Yankees trade him. They would probably have to eat money to make it happen, plus he controls the situation with his no-trade clause, but aces rarely become available, and they could get a good return. Surely the Dodgers would love Cole at, say, $20M a year, right? By all accounts Cole loves being a Yankee. He’s no dummy though. He will squeeze the Yankees for every last penny. That opt out is in his contract for a reason. Right now, I say Cole will opt out and the Yankees will exercise the option to keep him. But, 15 months from now, who knows?

Alessandro asks: Do you think the Guardians could shop Jose Ramirez in the offseason?

I think the chances it happens are very small. The Guardians somehow convinced Ramírez to sign a sweetheart extension last March and they owe him only $105M from 2024-28, or $21M per year. He’s a $30M a year player on the open market. Ramírez apparently loves Cleveland though, and his contract has a full no-trade clause, so he will only gets traded if he wants to get traded.

In the unlikely event the Guardians do make Ramírez available in the offseason, the Yankees have to go all-in on him right? Even with his 31st birthday coming up in September, he’s an “everyone is on the table” player. Ramírez is hitting .284/.355/.490 (125 wRC+) with 18 homers this season and he does so many other things too:

• Switch-hitter who walks (10.2%) more than he strikes out (10.0%).
• As a lefty batter he pulls 46% of his fly balls, a Rizzoian rate.
• 16-for-20 in steals with a strong 48% extra-base taken rate.
• Excellent defense at third base (+3 DRS and +7 OAA).
• Posts up every day (has missed only 21 games the last four years).

The Yankees have not had a good switch-hitter since Aaron Hicks had his productive years from 2017-20 and they don’t have a long-term third base solution. Ramírez is an impact switch-hitter and a good defender at a position of need, and that contract is a bargain. Cleveland has a thing for quantity over quality trades too. Tell them to pick 4-6 guys in the minors and call it a day.

I don’t think Cleveland will make Ramírez available. They can contend in that weak division next season and that contract is affordable even for a team with an eight-figure payroll. Ramírez is much more likely to wind up in the Guardians’ Hall of Fame than get traded. Too bad. He would be an amazing fit for the Yankees.

Scott asks: What would concern you more: A) Volpe's struggles as a 22 year old that has never proven himself, B) If the Yankees had signed Trea Turner/Carlos Correa. They have great track records but a lot of years and money are committed to them.

This was more difficult to answer than I expected! The easy answer is B would concern me more because it’s a lot of money tied up in potentially unproductive players. If Anthony Volpe can’t hack it, that would really stink, but the Yankees could easily move on. Not so easy to do that with Turner, who’s signed through 2033. (Correa is “only” signed through 2028.)

The not-so-easy answer is I think Correa and Turner are better bets to be above-average big leaguers in 2024 than Volpe, and as long as Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge are on the roster and in their primes, the short-term should be the priority. I’m asking Correa and Turner, two prime-aged players, to return to their previous level of performance. With Volpe, I’m asking him to be something he’s never been (an above-average big leaguer), and if he doesn’t work out, who replaces him? It will be years before another top in-his-prime shortstop hits free agency, so we have to try the Volpe thing again with Oswald Peraza.

I would say I’m more concerned about Volpe’s season. His 82 OPS+ is the lowest by a rookie with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title since Dansby Swanson in 2017 (68 OPS+). On one hand, Swanson’s a pretty good player, so maybe this is a good sign. On the other hand, it took a few years for Swanson to become a pretty good player. Cole and Judge can't wait for Volpe to figure it out. Rookies this bad usually don’t get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. They usually get sent to the minors to work on things, but for whatever reason Volpe is immune to a demotion. Is this really best for his development?

Also, not signing Correa or Turner is not a hypothetical. It’s reality. The Yankees didn’t sign them, and they instead gave that money to Carlos Rodón, who’s been terrible. It’s not like they have a pile of cash to spend because they didn’t give it to Correa or Turner. It’s already been spent and, so far, it’s been spent poorly. If we’re gonna worry about Correa and Turner in Year 1, it’s only fair we worry about Rodón in Year 1, right?

I’m rambling. To answer the question, I’m more concerned about Volpe. The Yankees have not done well finishing off the development of  their young hitters the last few seasons and Volpe has underwhelmed as a rookie. Correa and Turner were stars as recently as last season. I am much more confident in them going back to being the players they’ve been their entire careers than I am the Yankees getting the most out of Volpe.

Matt asks: To quote Bill Belichick “I am on to 2024” and with that said I am growing increasingly concerned, in no particular order, that a combination of strong AL East rosters, weak FA class, incompetent front office and blind ownership is putting us on a collision course with a luxury tax reset. Without deep diving a full offseason plan how can the Yankees address their current issues? I just don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel and fear another prime year of Judge/Cole will be wasted.

Yeah, it’s not hard to look at the Yankees and think the future is bleak. Resetting the luxury tax rate next year is basically impossible. The threshold is $237M next season and the Yankees already have $196.7M tied up in seven players, per Cot’s. That leaves only $40.3M for the rest of the roster, and roughly $17M of that $40.3M goes to the player benefits package. So it’s really $23.3M for the other 19 roster spots, or $1.23M per player.

The Yankees won’t be able to reset their luxury tax rates next year and I think they’ll spend up to the third threshold again ($297M). The upcoming free agent class is terrible after Shohei Ohtani. Harrison Bader will legit be one of the 10 best position players available and he’s fine. As of right now, the 2024 roster looks like this:

C: I assume some combination of Kyle Higashioka, Ben Rortvedt, and Jose Trevino
1B: non-concussed Anthony Rizzo, hopefully
2B: Gleyber Torres
SS: Anthony Volpe hell or high water
3B: DJ LeMahieu but it would be nice to bring in a lefty bat here
LF: they have to bring in someone
CF: beats me
RF: Aaron Judge
DH: Giancarlo Stanton

SP: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, assorted others

RP: It’ll be good no matter they have out there, I trust the Yankees implicitly with bullpens

Kinda have to bring in another starter, no? I’d rather the Randy Vásquezs and Clayton Beeters and Will Warrens not be Plan A in the No. 5 spot. A veteran innings dude, someone like Kyle Gibson or Martín Pérez, would help (though I’d happily take someone better). I’m not saying the Yankees should definitely sign one of those two. I’m just using them as examples.

Trading Torres and putting Oswald Peraza at second would save a lot of money (Gleyber will be around $13M next year) but also likely make the Yankees worse. Gleyber’s good! Peraza could be good, but the Yankees burying him in the minors all year leads me to believe they’re not as sold on him as they claim. Oh, and they need two outfielders too. Should be a busy winter.

Because the free agent market stinks, I think it’ll be an active offseason for trades. All around the league. Not just the Yankees. Do they rekindle their Dylan Carlson talks with the Cardinals to solve center field? I think Beeter, Warren, Peraza, Austin Wells, and pitchers like Richard Fitts and Drew Thorpe are expendable. That’s a good talent base to take into the trade market. Then again, that all applied at the trade deadline, and look how that went.

Even if the Yankees rally to make the postseason, this season has to serve as a wake-up call. Last season should have – remember when we were all foolishly optimistic and thought last year would bring about real change? – and this season must. The Yankees have to reshape their roster and get younger and more well-rounded. They have too many one-dimensional players (this includes guys who are defense-first, not just a slugger like Stanton).

I don’t know what the offseason holds and I’m kinda anxious about it, but this is not a “sign a left fielder and call it a winter” roster. An overhaul – or as much of an overhaul as possible – is badly needed. Maybe the poor free agent class leads the Yankees to a bunch of small one-year deals that give them a deeper roster? That feels like hopeless optimism more than something that will actually happen. I reckon it will be a trade heavy winter.

Bob asks: What do you think the odds are of the Yankees bringing back Frankie Montas on a make good contract in 2024? What about Jimmy Cordero?

I think the chances are 0% for Montas. I don’t think bringing him back would be a terrible idea, there are worse rolls of the dice on a one-year contract, but there’s a lot of baggage there and I think the Yankees will simply cut their losses and move on. Montas didn’t just get hurt, he was bad when he was on the mound, and the trade looks awful. I don’t think they’re going to give it another go and try to salvage something that likely isn’t salvageable.

As for Cordero, we know the Yankees aren’t above rostering players who have been suspended for domestic violence. He’s under team control as an arbitration-eligible player and it will come down to the roster crunch as much as anything. Keynan Middleton and Wandy Peralta will be free agents and how the Yankees replace them will factor into whether Cordero, who is out of options and can’t be shuttled up and down, stays. I put it at 25/75 Cordero stays with the 75% chance he’s gone having more to do with the roster fit than his suspension.

George asks: We often see the manager and pitching coach go to the mound and make sure no opponent hears them by covering their mouths. Is there any rule which prohibits them from coming out with a glove and using it, rather than a hand, to mask what they're saying?

The pandemic season and the entirety of 2020 sucked big time, though one of the small silly things we got out of it was coaches going out for mound visits wearing masks, and still covering their mouths while talking to the pitcher. A true “I don’t know what to do with my hands” moment.

Anyway, Rule 3.06 specifically says “each fielder … may use or wear a leather glove” and the “each fielder” part implies no one else can wear a glove, including coaches. First and third base coaches could use gloves to protect themselves, I suppose, but they use their hands for plenty of other stuff. Imagine Luis Rojas waving runners around third with a glove on his hand? That would be a hoot.

Michael asks: You mentioned Tanaka in your last post. Is he still pitching? How is he doing?

Masahiro Tanaka is indeed still pitching. He’s still with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan and it’s not going well: 4.60 ERA with a 12.3% strikeout rate and a .293 opponent’s batting average in 16 starts and 94 innings. Veteran Japanese baseball scribe Jim Allen recently noted Tanaka had two seven-run, sub-five-inning starts in July. Brandon Tew did a deep dive in June and observed Tanaka’s stuff and command are down from his peak, which tends to happen to soon-to-be 35-year-olds with nearly 3,000 innings on their arm.

Tanaka is coming up on two major career milestones. He has 196 wins and 2,547 strikeouts between Japan and MLB, so 200 wins is within reach. Getting to 3,000 strikeouts will be difficult at his current strikeout rate though. Tanaka will have to hang on another 2-3 years to get there, maybe more. I love the guy and I look forward to seeing him at Old Timers’ Day, but it does seem like the Yankees let Tanaka go at the right time. He was good for the Golden Eagles from 2021-22, not amazing, and this year decline has really begun to set in. Father Time comes for us all.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)