August 7th, 2023: Severino, Cortes, Rodón, August Targets, Prospects

PSA: I have a vacation coming up. CBS is making me take a few days because I haven’t taken any time off since the season started (much further back than that, really). I’m gonna escape the city for a bit and put in some beach time. My vacation is the week of Aug. 21st, so two weeks away. I’ll have a post that Monday morning, and that’ll be it for that week. Thank you as always for reading and your support. As for today, the Astros series is over and I already have all this written, so I figure I might as well hit publish now rather than wait until after the first game of the White Sox series. So, here is Tuesday morning’s post 24 hours early.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees and Astros just played a four-game series on four different networks – FOX on Thursday, Apple TV+ on Friday, YES Network on Saturday, Amazon Prime Video on Sunday – and there were technical difficulties for the last few innings Saturday. Normally I would be willing to forgive the technical difficulties because hey, it happens, but my patience is wearing thing. It’s so costly and tiresome to be a baseball fan these days. The most fan unfriendly sport, I swear. Also, why are the commercials so loud on Amazon? (The answer is the loud commercial legislation only covers television, not streaming.) Sorry for being crabby. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Sevy makes me sad

Given Jose Trevino’s wrist and Anthony Rizzo’s concussion, the odds are annoyingly high Luis Severino is pitching through a horrible injury, and the Yankees just don’t care. That would be preferable to the alternative: Severino is healthy and simply cooked. At least an injury would explain his performance, you know? Everyone insists he’s healthy though.

“I’m not gonna lie, every time I give up a homer or a run in the first inning, it’s like ‘Jesus Christ, what am I doing?’” Severino told Max Goodman after Friday’s start. “I start looking for different stuff, if it’s mechanical, if it’s tipping.  I’m having a tough time getting people out and minimizing homers, but I feel healthy and I’m going to keep working, trying to get better.”

Friday’s five-run, four-inning outing gives Severino a 7.74 ERA (6.56 FIP) – that 7.74 ERA is the highest in franchise history through 13 starts – and opponents are hitting .327/.394/.594 against him. For reference, Freddie Freeman entered Sunday's game hitting .337/.414/.589. Severino has turned every batter he’s faced into a slightly lesser Freddie Freeman this season. Yikes, man.

Severino’s problems start with his fastball. Opponents are hitting .370 with a .719 SLG and an 18.0% whiff rate against his four-seamer this year. Last year it was a .186 AVG and .377 SLG with a 20.7% whiff rate. His velocity has been down a bit and the induced vertical break is down about 10%, meaning his fastball has less “life” up in the zone. And Severino’s locating terribly. Seems like every fastball is either middle-middle or way out of zone for an easy take.

The Yankees and Severino are aware of his fastball problem too. He threw 87 pitches Friday and only 15 four-seam fastballs. Severino is typically a 50% four-seamer guy. Friday he was at 17%. Here are the lowest four-seam fastball usage games of his career (starts only):

1. Aug. 4th, 2023 vs. Astros: 17.2% (15 of 87)
2. April 26th, 2016 vs. Rangers: 33.8% (25 of 74)
3. Sept. 5th, 2018 vs. Athletics: 35.6% (21 of 59)
4. June 10th, 2022 vs. Cubs: 36.9% (38 of 103)
5. July 30th, 2023 vs. Orioles: 37.5% (30 of 80)
6. July 17th, 2023 vs. Angels: 37.8% (37 of 98)

Three of Severino’s six lowest four-seam fastball usage games have come within his last four starts. He’s becoming a junkballer, albeit one who sits 95-97 mph. Whatever the reason, his fastball has gone from being one of the best fastballs in the game to a total liability, so much so that Severino has lost confidence in it and is barely throwing it.

“Obviously, the fastball command’s a good starting point. He’s gotta be better with the fastball and keep it in areas that are productive for him,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Greg Joyce back in June. “Then probably landing the slider a little bit more for strikes.”

I would never rule out a mechanical issue, though I think it’s the arm injuries are just starting to catch up to Severino. He’s hurt everything – elbow, shoulder, lat – multiple times and injuries will take their toll. It’s happened to countless others. Matt Harvey, Tim Lincecum, Carlos Martinez, Julio Teheran … they were all great, and then suddenly they weren’t, all at a relatively young age.

The Yankees should put Severino in the bullpen. Every little sign of progress (good starts against the Angels and Royals) is met with steps back (terrible starts against the Orioles and Astros). It’s August and the Yankees are trying to get to the postseason. You can’t continue to let Severino go out there and get blasted every fifth day hoping it clicks at some point. This is a huge bummer, I love Severino, but every fifth day he’s a liability.

“Everything is on the table moving forward,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch following Friday’s game (Boone has said “everything is on the table” about several things this year, it’s a go-to phrase that essentially means nothing). “We’ll talk through it. The biggest thing is, whatever we do, it’s trying to continue to get him to find that consistency.”

Nestor returns

There are few things in this game I enjoy more than Nestor Cortes at his best. He’s so fun, and he was at his best Saturday afternoon, his first start back from a shoulder issue. Cortes struck out a season high eight and allowed just a solo homer in four innings. He was on a 60-ish pitch limit and he got through four innings against a good lineup on 64 pitches.

“That’s Nestor right there at his best,” Boone told Hoch. “Obviously he was not built up yet, but that’s what it looks like. Crisp with the fastball, getting it to where he wanted to get it, the cutter, slowing them down a little bit with the slider. I thought he was really, really sharp.”

Nestor had his best average four-seam fastball (92.8 mph) and cutter (88.4 mph) velocities of the season Saturday, and he threw his three fastest four-seamers and his fastest cutter of the year in that game. Pitcher with a healthy shoulder gets back his velocity, news at 11.

“Felt like I was a lot stronger than where I was three months ago, even to start the season,” Cortes told Hoch. “No type of soreness, no type of aches. I knew that if I was in a good spot with my arm. I was going to be able to command most of my pitches as well as I did today.”

We haven’t heard anything about how Nestor felt Sunday – recovery between starts was the main issue with his injury, remember – but he looked like 2022 Cortes against the Astros and 2022 Cortes is an impact starter. Severino seems like a lost cause, sadly, and Carlos Rodón has been a complete dud. A healthy and effective Nestor is not a luxury. He's a necessity.

“Nestor’s been a really good piece. He’s proven that since he went into the rotation since the middle part of ‘21,” Boone told Hoch. “In the midst of all that (injury stuff) early in the season, he was showing that he’s the old guy, too. It’s a huge lift. That’s why we’ve been looking forward to getting him back, because we know what he’s capable of.”

Rodón injured (again)

Year 1 of Rodón’s six-year contract with the Yankees could not be going worse. He got hurt (forearm), got hurt again (back), was ineffective when he did pitch (22 runs in 27 innings), and now he’s hurt yet again (hamstring). The only time the Yankees have splurged on a free agent since Gerrit Cole and this is what they get. Rodón exited Sunday’s game with tightness in his left hamstring after the Astros bombed him for five runs and two homers in 2.2 innings.

“The walks definitely keep hurting me,” Rodón said after the game (video). “... (My home run total is) getting up there quick. I would like them to stop, that’s for sure.”

Before we get to the hamstring injury and the ramifications, I will point out a positive: Rodón got six misses on 17 swings against his four-seamer Sunday, or 35%. His fastball whiff rate was up around 28% the last two seasons, which is top of the line, but four of his first five starts this year were in the 15% range. Rodón can’t be the guy the Yankees signed him to be without getting hitters to swing through fastballs. A good hitting Astros team swung through heaters Sunday.

As for the injury, Rodón will have an MRI on Monday and the Yankees haven’t said anything about the injured list yet. They have an off-day Thursday and can push his rotation spot as far back as next Tuesday. And, if Rodón does have to go on the injured list, the Yankees will only need their No. 5 starter once between now and Aug. 26th because of off-days. That said, the rotation situation is getting dicey:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole (amazing)
2. LHP Carlos Rodón (awaiting word on the hamstring and he’s been ineffective)
3. RHP Luis Severino (very bad)
4. LHP Nestor Cortes (just returned from a two-month shoulder injury)
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt (has already set a career high in innings)
6. RHP Domingo Germán (will not pitch again in 2023)
7. RHP Frankie Montas (not coming back anytime soon)
8. RHP Jhony Brito (fine as a fill in but stretched as a full-time starter)
9. RHP Randy Vásquez (relatively untested)

“I feel pretty confident that I should be able to pitch,” Rodón said about the hamstring following Sunday’s game (video). That’s all well and good, but I don’t believe him. He said he felt like he could pitch when he hurt his forearm in Spring Training and again when he hurt his back in April. The “I’ll pitch through anything” tough guy act doesn’t hit the same way with a 7.33 ERA, Carlos.

Anyway, Rodón missing time would all but guarantee Severino remains in the rotation, which would be a mistake, but the Yankees specialize in mistakes. They have to go 32-18 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins, which is about what it’ll take to get a Wild Card spot. Hopefully Cortes continues to look as good Saturday. It’s gonna be really tough to put together winning streaks with this rotation though, even if Rodón doesn’t miss a start.

(Brito was sent down after Sunday’s game. That clears a 26-man roster spot for Jonathan Loáisiga. Anthony Misiewicz might be the 40-man roster casualty. Not sure. Anyway, the Yankees could call Brito right back up if Rodón lands on the injured list.)

Miscellany

We don’t need to do hustle discourse with Giancarlo Stanton. He was thrown out at home by a mile Saturday (video) and Boone was asked whether Stanton was running at full effort after the game. He obviously wasn’t. Stanton gets hurt when he runs at full speed – his highest sprint speed this year came on the play he hurt his hamstring – so he doesn’t run at full speed. You’re free to say it’s pathetic and embarrassing and whatever else that a professional athlete runs like that, but Stanton’s doing it so he doesn’t get hurt, not because he’s dogging it. I didn’t like the send, though I understand testing Mauricio Dubón, who has a weak arm. What’s more likely to score the run, Dubón making an inaccurate throw or the next hitter (Isiah Kiner-Falefa) getting a hit against Justin Verlander? … The Yankees left 14 runners on base in the final six innings Sunday. I guess I should be happy they’re stranding runners these days rather than just not getting runners. Still, the Yankees have scored more than three runs only four times in their last 12 games. The at-bats have been better later, but we’re in August now and the Yankees are 4.5 games out of a postseason spot. They need results, not encouraging signs … Why did Wandy Peralta face a string of seven (!) straight righties in the sixth inning Sunday? Even with Ian Hamilton and Mike King unavailable, there were four other righties in the bullpen at the time! Here are Wandy’s splits before that four-run, two-homer inning:

• vs. RHB: .250/.357/.405 (.338 wOBA) with 16.3 K% and 14.3 BB%
• vs. LHB: .123/.265/.175 (.222 wOBA) with 23.2 K% and 10.1 BB%

The level of talent on the roster does not matter. Boone will find a way to get the least out of it. We’ve seen it for six years now, and this roster is lacking talent, so the manager’s mistakes are magnified. Peralta needs to do his job, yes, but he shouldn’t have been in the game in that spot to start with … And finally, trade deadline addition Keynan Middleton made his Yankees debut Friday night and struck out two in a perfect inning. He then retired all six batters he faced after Peralta’s meltdown Sunday. More importantly, he wore No. 93. Middleton is the first player in franchise history to wear No. 93. We’re down to six numbers that have never been worn by a Yankee: 00, 78, 80, 87, 94, and 96. There have been a few 00s throughout history, and if Adam Ottavino and Germán can wear 0, someone can wear 00.

2. Post-deadline “trade” targets. The trade deadline was a week ago and August waiver trades are no more, but there are still ways to add players through the end of the season. MLBTR had a great primer last week. Here’s the short version:

• Trades: Players on minor league contracts who have not been on a 40-man roster at any point this season can be traded.
• Waiver claims: They’re not revocable like trade waivers in the old days, but waiver claims are still very much a thing.
• Free agents: Business as usual here. You can sign anyone who’s on the open market for whatever reason.

The postseason roster eligibility deadline is 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31st and that’s a hard deadline. There’s no getting around that. If the player is not in the organization by then, he can not play in the postseason, period. He doesn’t have to be on the big league roster at the deadline. He just has to be in the organization. There are always a flurry of small moves on Aug. 31st.

There’s already been one notable post-trade deadline trade: Kole Calhoun to the Guardians. He spent a few weeks with Triple-A Scranton earlier this year before opting out and spending a few weeks in Triple-A with the Dodgers. Cleveland is dealing with injuries and Calhoun had not been on a 40-man roster at any point this year, so he was trade-eligible, and he was traded.

Coordinated waiver claims can also function as a trade. “I can’t send you anything in return, but if you put that guy on waivers, I’ll claim him and take his salary.” That kinda thing. The Yankees did this with Cory Gearrin in August 2019. Gearrin was a few weeks away from free agency and the last place Mariners saved about $300,000 in real money by letting the Yankees claim him.

Every so often a recognizable name is involved in a minor league trade (Calhoun, John Axford, Delino DeShields Jr.) or claimed on waivers (Asdrúbal Cabrera, Kevin Gausman, José Quintana) in August. You’re not going to find a difference-maker with the current rules though. The Yankees won’t be able to bring in a new starting left fielder. It’s role players, depth guys, and spare parts.

Here are a few players who could possibly help the Yankees as minor league trade or waiver claim candidates this month. Lefty Kenny Rosenberg and his Triple-A leading 27.8% strikeout rate (min. 80 innings) and dominant changeup (81 mph exit velocity, 43% whiffs, 55% grounders) was going to be featured here, but the Angels called him up Saturday. Alas.

RHP Robert Dugger, Rangers

The Triple-A Pacific Coast League is a hitter’s paradise this season – the league averages are a .273/.369/.458 batting line and a 5.80 ERA – and that’s important context for Dugger, who has a 4.68 ERA (5.09 FIP) in 102 innings. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the league! His strikeout (22.1%) and walk (8.7%) rates are better than the PCL averages (21.8% and 12.2%), and the contact quality is about average:

• Average exit velocity: 87.7 mph (Triple-A average: 87.7 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 38.8% (Triple-A average: 36.9%)
• Barrel rate: 16.7% (Triple-A average: 17.4%)

Dugger, 28, is a kitchen sink guy, has been since his prospect days with the Mariners, and he leans primarily on his slider, curveball, and changeup. His low-90s fastballs (two and four-seamers) are show-me pitches. Dugger’s thrown about 50% fastballs this year. He’s a candidate to go full Masahiro Tanaka and throw something like 30% fastballs. That might be the best formula.

The Rangers went all-in on pitching in the offseason and at the deadline, and Dugger has no real path to the big leagues without several injuries. Texas might be willing to part with him in a minor league trade. And, for the Yankees, Dugger is a stretched out starter who would provide rotation depth at a time when Carlos Rodón may be hurt, Luis Severino is ineffective, Domingo Germán is away from the team, and Clarke Schmidt has already set a new career high in innings.

2B/LF Tony Kemp, Athletics

At $3.725M, Kemp was the fourth highest paid A’s player on Opening Day. By comparison, the Yankees’ fourth highest paid player will make $22M this year (Rodón). Anyway, Kemp’s .217/.305/.310 (79 wRC+) slash line is obviously bad, though he’s been much better lately, hitting .281/.368/.415 (126 wRC+) since June 1st. There’s also this:

• More walks (9.7%) than strikeouts (9.0%).
• Fourth lowest swinging strike rate in baseball (5.1%).
• He pulls 33% of his fly balls and line drives. MLB average for lefty batters is 31%.
• 12-for-14 stealing bases and an elite 52% extra-base-taken rate.

Kemp will not win any Statcast awards (86.9 mph exit velocity and 1.2% barrel rate) but the Yankees have more than enough players who light up the exit velocity gun. Kemp’s thing is working at-bats, putting the ball in play, and raising hell on the bases. He’s a poor man’s Brett Gardner, basically. Similar skill sets, but Kemp is a grade worse across the board.

The A’s have a few young outfielders who need lineup spots and I’m sure they’d love to shed the $1.1M or so remaining on Kemp’s contract, so he’s a waiver candidate. He’ll be a free agent after the season and I don’t think Oakland's bringing him back. Kemp plays second base and left field and would be a better use of a roster spot than Oswaldo Cabrera, I think. (It has been five days since Cabrera appeared in a game.)

RHP Casey Lawrence, Cardinals

I heard secondhand the Yankees tried to sign Lawrence after he opted out of his contract with the Blue Jays last month, but he instead went to the Cardinals because they were going to sell at the deadline and thus offer a clearer path to the big leagues. Lawrence is still in Triple-A, where he’s pitched to a 4.59 ERA (4.90 FIP) in 100 innings. He’s able to limit damage when he doesn’t throw the ball middle-middle:

Lawrence, now 35, has a few cups of coffee under his belt and he’s a fastball/slider/changeup guy with interesting enough pitch characteristics. In particular, he gets heavy sink on his fastball even though it’s mostly 89-91 mph. Like Dugger, Lawrence’s appeal to the Yankees is being a fully stretched out starter at a time when their rotation depth is sketchy. I just figured I'd mention him since the Yankees had interest not too long ago.

UTIL Jake Scheiner, Mariners

Outside big league hangers-on like Calhoun and DeShields, guys like Scheiner are the best you can do in a post-deadline minor league contract trade, realistically. The soon-to-be 28-year-old has performed well enough in his first taste of Triple-A (.263/.348/.536 and 117 wRC+) and the underlying numbers are strong:

• Average exit velocity: 89.4 mph (Triple-A average: 87.7 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 43.4% (Triple-A average: 36.9%)
• Barrel Rate: 22.5% (Triple-A average: 17.4%)
• Strikeout rate: 23.8% (Triple-A average: 21.8%)
• Walk rate: 15.3% (Triple-A average: 12.2%)
• Swinging strike rate: 11.4% (Triple-A average: 12.2%)
• Chase rate: 20.6% (Triple-A average: 27.0%)

Scheiner plays three positions regularly and they just so happen to be the three positions where the Yankees are most uncertain: first base, third base, and left field. Back in March, Baseball America (subs. req’d) listed Scheiner outside Seattle’s top 30 prospects, but noted “his power, instincts and work ethic give him a chance to be an up-down power bat.”

A righty hitting four corners guy – Scheiner has played right field in the past and I’m sure he can handle it again in a pinch – with some pop (26 homers this year and 65 the last three years) can be a useful bench piece. If nothing else, Scheiner would allow the Yankees to send Cabrera to Triple-A for regular at-bats rather than let him collect cobwebs on the big league bench.

LHP Brent Suter, Rockies

I was surprised the Rockies didn’t trade Suter at the deadline, though nothing about the Rockies makes sense, I suppose. The soon-to-be 34-year-old has a 2.74 ERA (3.17 FIP) in 49.1 relief innings and he’s long been one of the best exit velocity suppressors in baseball. Here are the last three years (min. 150 innings):

1. Tyler Rogers: 84.7 mph average exit velocity
2. Brent Suter: 85.1 mph
3. Devin Williams: 85.1 mph
4. Ryan Yarbrough: 85.1 mph
5. Zack Wheeler: 85.5 mph

Suter also has the 11th lowest barrel rate (4.8%) the last three years. That’s out of 249 pitchers with at least 150 innings. He’s a soft-tosser – Suter is a four-seamer, sinker, changeup guy who might touch 90 mph on a good day – who is fearless and really knows how to use what he has. Also, he works very quickly. Suter struck out Josh Bell in 20 seconds earlier this year (video).

The Rockies owe Suter about $900,000 the rest of the season and saving that money is their only motivation for putting him on waivers. I’m not sure they’ll do that, and, even if they did, there’s a pretty good chance some team ahead of the Yankees on the waiver order will claim him first. A multi-inning lefty who limits hard contact fits in any bullpen. I’m not sure this is realistic.

Other possible targets

Even with Steve Cohen’s billions, the Mets would love to shed the $4M or so remaining on Carlos Carrasco’s contract (not to mention the associated luxury tax), but no one’s taking that on. He’s not a waiver claim candidate. He’s a “wait until they release him and sign him for the prorated minimum” candidate. Ditto Yasmani Grandal, who’s still owed about $5.5M.

The Brewers dropped Keston Hiura from the 40-man roster in Spring Training and his .301/.391/.547 (130 wRC+) line is underwhelming for a positionless player in the PCL. Hiura is a former high draft pick (No. 9 overall in 2017) and top prospect, though he has an exploitable hole in his swing up in the zone that is proving to be a fatal flaw:

Are lefty hitting Triple-A outfielders like Ben Gamel (Padres) and Andrew Stevenson (Twins) an upgrade over Billy McKinney? Yeah, maybe, though it isn’t certain. Veteran righty Matt Andriese (Dodgers) is back from Japan and still kicking around Triple-A. Andrew McCutchen would be the ideal August waiver target, though he seems intent on retiring as a Pirate.

In addition to Gearrin, the Yankees have acquired players like Luke Bard, Jonathan Davis, and Sal Romano in August waiver claims and minor league trades the last few years. That’s the pool of players we’re talking about here. Fringe roster guys who could be the 27th man on the 26-man roster, so to speak. Maybe Kemp can help, maybe Scheiner is a sleeper, and maybe Suter actually get to the Yankees on waivers. Otherwise, meh.

3. Prospect thoughts. With all due respect to RHP Juan Carela, the Yankees neither added nor subtracted from their prospect pool at the trade deadline. I was hoping we’d get some new faces in here. Too bad. Here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Season-ending injury for Arias

SS Roderick Arias, last year’s top international signing, is done for the season. He suffered a hand or wrist injury on July 20th and needed surgery. That’s his second hand/wrist injury in as many years. I don’t know if it’s the same hand he hurt last year. Would it be better to injure both hands or hurt one hand multiple times? Does it even matter? Whatever.

Rod-A, who is still only 18, played well before the injury, hitting .267/.423/.505 (143 wRC+) with six homers and nearly as many walks (20.8%) as strikeouts (22.3%) in 130 plate appearances in the rookie Florida Complex League. He hasn’t played in more than two weeks and yet Arias still ranks sixth in the league in homers, and two of the guys ahead of him at 23-24 years old.

Last season Arias had a 32.9% strikeout rate in the Dominican Summer League, so getting to 20.8% in the FCL this year is a real nice improvement while moving up a level (it’s still rookie ball, though the FCL is generally more competitive than the DSL). Here’s what minor league hitting coordinator Joe Migliaccio told Mike Ashmore about Arias recently:

“Generally, we see a lot of similar trends at the lowest levels. For example, guys do not swing at non-fastballs a lot. They’re very passive against non-fastballs, and that was one of Roderick’s flaws at the time.”

…

“So, for him, it was building that foundation of, ‘When do I swing? What do I swing at?’ And then kind of fine-tuning the swing itself in the cage.”

Migliaccio said that Arias’ contact quality was five times the FCL average and that his swing decisions have also vastly improved.

I’m not sure what “Arias’ contact quality was five times the FCL average” means, but it sounds good. More importantly, Arias has only 270 plate appearances two years into his pro career. The hand injuries are taking away needed at-bats and defensive reps. Hopefully there’s no lingering effects and he can have a full and healthy season in 2024.

Ramirez breaking out

From 2021-22, C Agustin Ramirez was a rookie ball sleeper largely because he hits the ball very hard and he at least has a chance to stick behind the plate. Because of roster crunches and the lost pandemic season, it wasn’t until 2023, his fifth pro season, that Ramirez escaped rookie ball, and he’s been dynamite this year:

Ramirez, 22 in September, was promoted from Low-A Tampa to High-A Hudson Valley at the end of June and his walk rate took a nosedive once he got away from the automated strike zone, but his power is up and he’s striking out less, albeit in a much smaller sample. Here are the contact quality numbers we have on Ramirez from his time with the Tarpons:

• Average exit velocity: 91.8 mph (Low-A average: 85.8 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 51.0% (Low-A average: 31.0%)
• Barrel rate: 18.4% (Low-A average: 13.9%)
• Chase rate: 24.3% (Low-A average: 27.8%)

There’s legit juice in Ramirez’s bat. Here’s a recent home run that left the stadium. That definitely isn’t the shortest swing you’ll ever see, but, to date, it hasn’t led to excessive swing-and-miss or big strikeout totals. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Ramirez in their midseason top 30 Yankees prospect list (he’s No. 25):

The 21-year-old Ramirez is a powerful backstop who posts big-time exit velocities and has done a much better job this season of getting the ball in the air. His present approach is a bit pull-heavy and he can get over-aggressive, especially on spin. He’s a solid receiver with a strong arm but needs to get better at blocking … He has a chance to be an offensive-minded backup catcher.

The Yankees signed Ramirez out of the Dominican Republic for $400,000 in 2018 and, before this season, Eric Longenhagen wrote “Ramirez is the same age as a college draft prospect and if you were to parachute his tools (chiefly, the power and arm strength) into a college catcher, I think this toolset goes in the late-second to third round.”

Ramirez will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason. Rule 5 Draft eligible again, I should say. He was Rule 5 Draft eligible last offseason, but taking a rookie ball catcher is a waste of time and money, so he was not picked. A successful High-A catcher is more appealing, though even then the track record of Rule 5 Draft eligible catchers is horrible*. They rarely stick.

* A full-time catcher has not been picked in the Rule 5 Draft since the Padres took Luis Torrens from the Yankees in 2016. Blake Sabol is going to stick with the Giants this year, though he’s a 25-year-old who had previously played in Triple-A, and he’s a backup catcher who also plays the outfield. He’s not just a catcher.

I’m not sure what the Yankees will do with Ramirez after the season. My guess right now is they don’t add him to the 40-man roster because High-A to MLB as a catcher is an enormous jump, but we can worry about that later. For now, Ramirez is having a breakout season at the plate, and the defensive skills are good enough that staying at catcher long-term seems likely. He’s officially made the jump from sleeper to bona fide prospect.

Thorpe’s up and down year

I gotta say, I did not expect RHP Drew Thorpe to still be in High-A in August. Last year’s second round pick came out of Cal Poly as a three-year starter, and guys like that typically don’t spend much time in Single-A. Thorpe, 23 in October, has been very good overall: 2.81 ERA (3.30 FIP) with 32.5% strikeouts and 7.7% walks in 109 innings. This kinda sums up his season though:

• July 22nd: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K, 0 HR (video)
• July 29th: 4 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 HR
• Aug. 4th: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 HR

Within his last three starts Thorpe set Hudson Valley’s single-game strikeout record (July 22nd) and then gave up as many runs as in his previous 10 starts combined (July 29th). That Aug. 4th game is the quintessential “kept his team in it” game, not that wins and losses are the priority in High-A. Point is, we never really know which Thorpe will show up on a start-to-start basis.

The Yankees drafted Thorpe because his changeup is excellent and his slider is promising, and they hoped to boost his velocity like they have so many others. There has been a velocity boost, though not a significant one. Thorpe was 90-92 mph in college and has been mostly 92-94 mph this year, I’ve been told. Perhaps the jump into the 95-97 mph range is coming next year.

Thorpe’s 138 strikeouts are second in the minors and his 17.9% swinging strike rate is the highest in the minors among the 222 pitchers with at least 80 innings. No. 2 on that list, Red Sox RHP Angel Bastardo, is at 16.6%, so the gap is large. It’s fair to call Thorpe the best bat-misser in the minors. Then again, three-year college guy in High-A. He should miss a lot of bats.

Another thing: Thorpe’s 109 innings are already a career high. He’s not way over his previous career high (104.2 innings at Cal Poly last year), but he is over it. Between that and the schedule (Hudson Valley’s season ends the week of Sept. 10th), Thorpe’s only got another 5-7 starts remaining this year. Maybe get him up to Double-A Somerset for the last few?

I don’t want to make it sound like Thorpe has had a bad season. He’s been really good even as a high draft pick in High-A. There has been a lot of unevenness though. He’s great one start, bad the next, okay the next, so on and so forth. I figured Thorpe would carve up High-A hitters and be in Somerset by June like RHP Chase Hampton, but nope. The Yankees believe he still has a few developmental boxes to check in High-A, apparently.

Transactions and injury updates

Because of the draft and trade deadline, it’s been a while since my last minor league update, and there are a few transactions and injuries I want to touch on. Let’s go through them quickly.

Calhoun elects free agency: DH Willie Calhoun cleared outright waivers last week and elected free agency rather than return to Triple-A Scranton. He hasn’t signed with a new team yet. What this means is the Yankees have one fewer call up candidate in Scranton. I gotta think Calhoun would have been at the front of the line had he hung around. Now it’s OF Franchy Cordero and SS Oswald Peraza. One fewer player standing in OF Estevan Florial’s way, in theory.

Sweeney to IL: SS Trey Sweeney was placed on Double-A Somerset’s injury list last Friday. He exited Wednesday’s game after stealing a base and I don’t know what’s wrong with him, though waiting a day to put him on the injured list could be an indication it’s a relatively minor day-to-day thing and they’re playing it safe. Sweeney, 23, is hitting .250/.366/.419 (119 wRC+) with 13 home runs and a strong 8.7% swinging strike rate this year. Since June 1st, he’s hitting .267/.366/.481 (131 wRC+) with 10 of those 13 homers.

Diaz has TJS: RHP Indigo Diaz, who the Yankees acquired in the Lucas Luetge trade, had Tommy John surgery last week, he announced on Instagram. He struggled badly with walks with Double-A Somerset (16 in 19 innings) and had to be demoted to High-A Hudson Valley in June. The timing of the injury means Diaz will be sidelined until 2025, his age 26 season. Bummer. IF Caleb Durbin, the other guy in the Luetge trade, is hitting .262/.336/.402 (104 wRC+) with Somerset. His 6.9% strikeout rate is fourth lowest in the minors among the 1,225 players with at least 200 plate appearances.

Tully heads to KBO: Last week the Yankees released LHP Tanner Tully so he could sign with the NC Dinos in Korea. Tully had been Triple-A Scranton’s veteran innings guy and he gets $200,000 for the rest of the season, per Jee-Ho Yoo. The 28-year-old had a 5.64 ERA (4.86 FIP) in 91 innings with the RailRiders. Scranton’s rotation at the moment is LHP Edgar Barclay, RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Mitch Spence, RHP Randy Vásquez, RHP Will Warren, bullpen game. RHP Jhony Brito was sent down after Sunday’s game and could step in as the sixth starter, but things are fluid with Carlos Rodón’s injury. RHP Richard Fitts has pitched well the last few weeks. He might be in line for a promotion to the RailRiders.

Feliz heads to Japan: What will you remember most from RHP Michael Feliz’s time with the Yankees? The Yankees signed him on May 18th, he struck out 15 and allowed five runs in 13.1 innings with Scranton, then the Yankees granted Feliz his release on July 24th so he could sign with the Chunichi Dragons in Japan. He was pretty far down the depth chart. Not a huge loss or anything, but it is one fewer pitcher with MLB experience on Scranton’s roster.

Snelten released: The Yankees released LHP DJ Snelten last week. His numbers with Triple-A Scranton are something else: 36 IP, 31 H, 34 R, 40 BB, 48 K. Snelten caught my eye in Spring Training because he touched 99 mph, and he held that velocity into the regular season, but there’s not much to him other than the radar gun reading. The other pitch characteristics are meh and the control is, well, not there. Too bad it didn’t work out. Hard-throwing lefties are always a hot commodity.

McAllister returns!: Remember RHP Zach McAllister? Sure you do. The Yankees drafted him in the third round in 2006 – that was the Dellin Betances, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, and David Robertson draft class – and traded him for Austin Kearns at the 2010 deadline. We were all mad about that. McAllister, now 35, rejoined the organization over the weekend, presumably to help replace Feliz, Snelten, and Tully. He has not pitched in the big leagues since 2018 (!) but he’s still at it, and has bounced around Triple-A the last few years. McAllister retired all three batters he faced in his RailRiders debut Sunday and it was literally his RailRiders debut. When he last played for Triple-A Scranton in 2010, it was before the name change. They were still the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees at the time. Also, he’s a sidearmer now. McAllister had a 4.93 ERA (4.35 FIP) in 38.1 innings in Triple-A with the Diamondbacks before opting out last week.

Miscellany

2B Keiner Delgado, one of my Not Top 30 Prospects, is hitting .278/.384/.462 (123 wRC+) with as many walks as strikeouts (both 13.0%) in the FCL. Check out the kid’s leg kick (video):

That’s one of those “they don’t teach that but it works for him” leg kicks. Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Delgado could “carve out a spot as a big league utilityman” and I’ve likened him to Ronald Torreyes. He makes a lot of contact and is okay at everything, though great at nothing … RHP Brendan Beck, the 2021 second round pick who missed 2022 and the start of 2023 with Tommy John surgery, has been great since completing his rehab and joining High-A Hudson Valley: 19 IP, 14 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 20 K. The Yankees are building Beck up slowly and he’s stretched out to four innings and 57 pitches. So far, so good. Beck was drafted as a senior and he turns 25 in October, so I imagine the Yankees are planning to send him right to Double-A to begin 2024 … And finally, C Anthony Seigler found himself in left field the other day in an emergency situation. I note this only because Seigler, who switch-pitched as an amateur, threw left-handed in the outfield. He of course throws right-handed behind the plate. Here he is in left field last Wednesday and then behind the plate Thursday (video) (forgive the quality, that’s Double-A video for you):

Lefty throwing catchers are pretty much extinct – there has not been a lefty throwing catcher in the big leagues since Benny Distefano caught three games for the 1989 Pirates – because lefties with good arms get put on the mound. Seigler’s switch-throwing ability is a novelty more than a useful skill, but maybe switch-pitching is in his future if the whole catching thing doesn’t work out. He’s hitting .168/.340/.221 (68 wRC+) this season, so yeah.

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