July 27th, 2023: Judge, Rodón, Germán, Marinaccio, Trade Deadline, Mailbag

The trade deadline is Tuesday, which is inconvenient for me because Tuesday is also post day. I tentatively plan to run a shorter version of Tuesday’s regular post on Monday instead, then play things by ear around the deadline. Don't worry, I won't abandon you. I just don’t want to write a bunch of stuff, hold it until Tuesday, then have to put it all in the Content Graveyard. Let’s see where the deadline takes us. Sound good? Here is Friday morning’s post Thursday afternoon since the Yankees have yet another off-day.

1. Judge returning Friday. I was planning to write something today about it sounding like Aaron Judge will return Friday in Baltimore, then Joel Sherman beat me to it and reported Judge will indeed be back Friday as long as there are no last minute setbacks. Such are the perils of semi-weekly blogging. The Yankees haven’t made this official yet. That’ll happen sometime Friday afternoon.

"I wouldn’t rule anything out,” Boone told Pete Caldera on Wednesday. “But we’re kind of taking it day by day. Huddling up and seeing what the next steps are. Right now, it’s seeing how he came out of today, and if we need to keep doing more (rehab, we will).”

Judge went to Tampa earlier this week and got a bunch of at-bats (including some against a rehabbing Jonathan Loáisiga) in simulated games Tuesday and Wednesday. He ran the bases and played the field as well. Judge acknowledged he will have to manage the pain the rest of the season, but all his rehab work has gone well, so the Yankees are bringing him back.

"It's not going to be pain-free, but we'll just get as close to manageable as we can,” Judge told Bryan Hoch last week.

(Skipping a proper minor league rehab assignment after eight weeks on the injured list feels like a recipe for Judge going 4-for-46 with 19 strikeouts the next two weeks.)

The Yankees are 19-23 since Judge got hurt and they went from 2.5 games up on a postseason spot to 2.5 games back of a postseason spot. They’re activating him because they’re desperate, just like they fired former hitting coach Dillon Lawson because they were desperate. Six important games against the Orioles and Rays are coming up, and the trade deadline is Tuesday. The pressure’s on. The Yankees have floundered too long.

I have a hard time giving the Yankees the benefit of the doubt with injuries – they let their starting catcher play with a torn ligament in his wrist for three months! – and I just have to trust they’re not putting their franchise player at risk of a more serious injury in Year 1 of a massive nine-year contract by letting him play through pain. I guess I should be heartened Paul O’Neill, who knows a lot more about this stuff than me, didn’t seem too concerned during Wednesday’s broadcast about the toe affecting Judge at the plate even though he’s a back foot hitter.

The good news is Judge won’t probably have to run much on that toe. Why in the world would anyone pitch to him? I don’t think Anthony Rizzo (.168/.271/.228 and 44 wRC+ since June 1st) and Giancarlo Stanton (.200/.278/.443 and 93 wRC+ this year) will scare teams into pitching to Judge. Just call it a hunch. Judge is gonna run a 24% walk rate the rest of this season like he did last September, isn’t he?

I don’t like the Yankees bringing Judge back and letting him play through pain and I fully expect this to backfire, mostly because I can’t remember the last time they did something that didn’t backfire. It has been mistake after mistake for two years now. Hopefully this works and Judge is fine, and the Yankees start stacking wins. With this team though, nothing ever seems to go as planned. Between this and Lawson, it feels like the Yankees are lobbing Hail Marys.

“I think we’re getting the big guy back, so I’m really excited, and we’ll see what happens,” Isiah Kiner-Falefa told Hoch after Wednesday’s win. “His presence when he’s not even playing is huge, so to have him back in the lineup, it’s going to be a good feeling. I think guys are going to be a little more confident. He brings energy and he really sets the tone.”

(As for the roster move, they’re totally gonna send Oswald Peraza down again, aren’t they? He has started only two of the last four games and Kiner-Falefa can back up the left side of the infield. That would allow the Yankees to keep Greg Allen, Jake Bauers, and Billy McKinney, who are all out of options. Demoting Peraza is the path of least resistance.)

2. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees and Mets have split every Subway Series dating back to 1998. That’s not true, but it feels like it is. They split four games this year (including two in each park), four games last year, six games in 2020, four games in 2019, and six games in 2018. The Yankees and Mets can’t even give their fan bases proper bragging rights. New York sports are very unsatisfying right now. Here are a few thoughts following the latest installment of the Subway Series.

Rodón arrives

It took longer than we would have liked (a lot longer than we would have liked), but Carlos Rodón finally had his first good start as a Yankee, and he was very good: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K on 93 pitches. He located his slider very well, easily the best of his four starts, and the result was seven misses on 10 swings against the pitch. Fastball touched 98 mph too. His slider whiffs:

“I would have taken (my first win as a Yankee) about three starts ago, but it’s nice to have it now and finally get that out of the way,” Rodón told Bryan Hoch after the game. “We can build off this start and see where we can go from there.”

Rodón threw 93 pitches against the Mets and 91 of the 93 were a fastball (65) or slider (26). He threw one curveball and one changeup all night, and the curveball was toward the end of his outing (87th pitch). That’s Rodón though. He threw 96% fastballs and sliders last year and 92% fastballs and sliders the year before. We can worry about the need for a third pitch when the fastball and slider stop working, and three bad starts off the injured list aren’t enough to say they have stopped working. They certainly worked well Wednesday.

We’re still waiting to see the big strikeout totals – the Mets have the fifth lowest strikeout rate in baseball (21.5%), to be fair – and Rodón has to cut down on the walks, not that three in 5.2 innings is astronomical. If we’re sitting here in September and still looking at 16.7% strikeouts and 13.3% walks, it’s a problem. Through four starts, nah. Irksome more than worrisome right now.

I had forgotten about the blown kiss incident until the broadcast mentioned it, and Rodón got a nice ovation when he exited the game. No harm, no foul. Rodón pitches with a bit of an attitude and he let out a big roar after striking out Pete Alonso to strand two runners in the fifth. If he pitches well, this guy will be a fan favorite. You can see it. Now he just needs to pitch well consistently. Wednesday was a welcome step in the right direction.

“Rodón looked awesome,” Isiah Kiner-Falefa told Hoch. “I feel like this was his first real big game in New York, and he came through for us. It was a big ‘Welcome to New York’ moment. He’s a bulldog out there, and that’s the energy we need. It’s fun to play behind him.”

Germán’s last stand? (probably not, no)

Earlier this week Aaron Boone said the Yankees would not use a six-man rotation when Nestor Cortes returns and it seems pretty clear who should move to the bullpen when the time comes. The Mets tagged Domingo Germán for six runs and three homers in six innings Tuesday night. He’s allowed 33 runs and 10 homers in his last seven starts and 36.2 innings even with the perfect game.

“That’s how the game can be sometimes,” Germán told Hoch. “You strike out hitters but yet you give up the runs. If you want to find something positive out of the outing, because they are not recognizing pitches and swinging, you’re getting strikeouts. Then it’s a matter of executing the pitches in key situations.”

To be fair to Germán, his outfield defense did him zero favors Tuesday (what else is new?), but I don’t understand throwing an 0-2 changeup to Alonso, which he hit out of the park for a three-run homer. Even Boone questioned the pitch selection. “The 0-2 changeup to Alonso, I just don’t think it was the right pitch in that spot,” Boone told Mark Sanchez after the game.

Germán has a great curveball and he got nine whiffs on 18 swings against it Tuesday, yet they threw Alonso an 0-2 changeup. Can we use our brains a little please? It was a bad changeup, Germán left it up and right out over the plate, but still. Why are you even throwing that pitch in that count instead of your very best pitch? Groan.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Germán. This is just who he is. When he locates, he pitches well. When he doesn’t, he gets blasted. There’s no in-between with him. He’s either great or stinky. Germán has a 4.77 ERA (4.77 FIP) with a 1.74 HR/9 (17.5% HB/FB) this year and it’s a 4.45 ERA (4.52 FIP) with a 1.64 HR/9 (15.9% HR/FB) for his career. He’s comfortably within the range of possible outcomes. His season numbers aren’t out of character.

There’s a non-zero chance Tuesday was Germán’s final game as a Yankee. The trade deadline is Tuesday and decent starters are in very short supply, particularly decent starters under control next season. A smart team would self-evaluate honestly, understand the current state of affairs, and cash German in as a trade chip in a seller’s market. I’m not gonna hold my breath though. Since he’s likely not going anywhere, Germán just needs to pitch better. He’s stunk lately.

Marinaccio’s missing velocity and month-long slump

Semi-bold prediction: Ron Marinaccio will not be a Yankee at this time next week. Either he’ll be with some other team after a trade or he’ll be a RailRider. Ron from Toms River has allowed a run in six of his 10 appearances this month (nine runs in 8.1 innings overall) and opponents have hit .353/.488/.706 against him with more walks (nine) than strikeouts (eight) in July. Eek.

“It’s been a battle,” Marinaccio told Gary Phillips earlier this week. “... I just have to stick it out and try and throw everything with as much conviction as I can. If you’re not convicted in a pitch, it’s not going to be as good as it can be.”

Marinaccio’s velocity is down this year relative to last year and it’s been down even more these last two months. He came out of the lost pandemic season with more streamlined mechanics and a lot more velocity, which helped him make the jump from fringe prospect to a big leaguer. Now that velocity is fading back to its pre-pandemic level:

(Marinaccio made only one appearance and threw only five fastballs last October, and he left that game with the stress reaction in his right shin. Don’t sweat that scary Oct. 2022 drop in the graph.)

“We’re trying to create as much force as we can driving down the mound,” Marinaccio told Phillips. “I feel like I’m getting stuck over the rubber at times and I don’t have much power at the end of my throw. And that probably speaks to velocity ticking down at times. It’s been up and down for me. I feel like I’ve been getting close at times. Then I’ve had outings where I haven’t felt great too.”

Velocity is not everything but it is important, and Marinaccio’s changeup plays differently when his fastball is 95-96 mph rather than 93-94 mph. His changeup had a 45.3% chase rate and 40.9% whiff rate last year. That’s top of the line. This year it’s down to 30.7% chases and 29.5% whiffs, and it’s 25.0% and 20.0% in July, respectively. Marinaccio’s moneymaker ain’t makin’ money.

It’s possible Marinaccio has hit a wall and is fatigued. He’s at 43.2 innings this year after throwing only 44 innings last year, and he landed on the injured list with a shoulder issue last July. Perhaps he just needs to catch a second wind. It’s also possible the clock is striking midnight. Marinaccio is 28 already and these late-blooming 27-28 year old relievers don’t always have the longest shelf life.

Whatever the reason, Marinaccio has been very bad the last several weeks. Bad enough that a demotion to Triple-A could be in order, either because the Yankees add an arm at the deadline or swap him out with another reliever (Matt Bowman? Anthony Misiewicz? Greg Weissert?). Marinaccio’s not the reason the Yankees are outside the postseason field, but this is a roster spot that can be upgraded.

“I don’t think about (possibly being sent down). I just think about trying to get a little bit better every day,” Marinaccio told Phillips. “Whatever the situation might be, I’m gonna keep working my best to bring the best out of myself and help the team wherever I am. I’m always hoping to be here.”

Quick numbers on Casey

The Yankees dismissed hitting coach Dillon Lawson after the first half finale and replaced him with Sean Casey, who had no prior coaching experience. They’ve only played 11 games in the second half – only 11? really? feels like a lot more to me – and thus 11 games under Casey. I was interested to see the numbers, so I pulled them. Might as well share ‘em:

There was a fleck of dust on my screen that made the 96 wRC+ under Lawson look like -96 wRC+, and yeah, that felt right. Anyway, it’s at least a little funny the offense has performed worse under Casey than it did under Lawson. That’s just kinda how things go with the Yankees now. Their attempted fix only made things worse.

To be clear, 11 games is nothing and I implore you to take no meaning from the numbers in that table. I don’t blame Casey for the offense sleepwalking through these last 11 games even a tiny little bit. We’ve learned basically nothing about his skills as a hitting coach. Those numbers are the product of underperforming players, not bad coaching. I just wanted to see the numbers, so I looked them up. There they are.

Miscellany

Back-to-back three-walk games for DJ LeMahieu, who had terrific at-bats against Justin Verlander on Tuesday. Six walks in two Subway Series games after six walks in his previous 17 games. LeMahieu is the first Yankee with back-to-back three-walk games since Frankie Cervelli in 2010, of all people … 10 up, 10 down for four relievers Wednesday. Nice to see that after a few rough weeks for those guys. Mike King has not thrown more than one inning in each of his last four appearances, though I don’t think the Yankees are changing how they use him. He was going to go out for the ninth inning Sunday before the offense broke the game open, and the Yankees were clearly going to use him for multiple innings in the final game in Anaheim, but King gave up two runs and needed 34 pitches to get two outs. I think they still consider him a multi-inning guy … Alonso hit two home runs in his first three at-bats Tuesday. The Yankees have gotten two home runs from their first basemen in their last 55 games. This team has a long list of problems and Anthony Rizzo turning into late-career Casey Kotchman is near the top … And finally, Harrison Bader had three hits Wednesday, all against José Quintana. His platoon splits are getting comical: .366/.413/.854 (235 wRC+) vs. lefties and .229/.252/.313 (53 wRC+) vs. righties. Bader has 10 extra-base hits in 46 plate appearances against lefties and 12 extra-base hits in 152 plate appearances against righties. He’s gonna make me look up the largest single-season platoon splits ever after the season, isn’t he? Please pick it up against righties, Harrison.

3. The trade deadline (emphasis on dead). The trade deadline is five days away and things are starting to pick up around the league. The Angels took Shohei Ohtani off the market (was he ever really on the market?), then doubled down by adding Lucas Giolito (and Reynaldo López). The Angels are 1.5 games behind the Yankees in the Wild Card race and going for it.

(Shoutout to the Yankees for getting swept in Anaheim last week and convincing the Angels to go for it.)

Things around the Yankees remain very quiet. It’s been four days since the last token “the Yankees are interested in that guy” report. Jon Heyman says the Yankees are “hoping to become trade deadline buyers but have decided they aren’t quite ready to dive into the market in a big way yet.” Translation: they know buying is futile but they’re gonna do it anyway.

I think a 2013-esque trade deadline is the most likely outcome. In 2013, the Yankees woke up the morning of the deadline 8.5 games back in the division and 3.5 games back of a Wild Card spot, but it was Mariano Rivera’s final season (and Robinson Canó’s last year before free agency). The Yankees had to do something to make a postseason push. Those somethings:

• Traded a Grade C prospect for Alfonso Soriano, who used his no-trade clause to force his way back to the Yankees.
• Traded a player to be named later for Brendan Ryan. The player was never named and it amounted to a salary dump.
• Signed Mark Reynolds off the scrap heap.

Reynolds and Ryan were brought in during the post-deadline waiver trade period, which no longer exists, but the point is the Yankees addressed their most-glaring roster needs without putting a dent in the farm system. They were technically buyers, though they didn’t go all-in on buying because that would have been a mistake with that 2013 roster.

The 2023 Yankees are eight games back in the AL East and 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot*, and while they don’t have a legend retiring, they do have Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge in their prime. That alone is a reason to buy. At the same time, the Yankees are not particularly good and have been fading. They shouldn’t go all-in on buying, similar to 2013.

* On paper, the third Wild Card spot is preferable to the second Wild Card spot. The third Wild Card spot gets you the AL Central winner in the Wild Card Series, albeit on the road. Move into the second Wild Card spot and you’re going on the road to play one of the Astros, Orioles, Rangers, or Rays.

What does a 2013-esque deadline look like in 2023? Probably something like Randal Grichuk in left, Tom Murphy behind the plate, and someone like José Cisnero or Michael Fulmer in the bullpen. That addresses three needs at what should be minimal cost. It’s not enough to put the Yankees over the top but is enough to keep them in the race and selling tickets into September.

Opening up the top of the farm system and paying a premium for Cody Bellinger when his value is at its highest (.415/.433/.756 and 213 wRC+ in July) seems unwise, and the Yankees stopped paying big for relievers two years ago. They can live without a catcher. A catcher might be a “if something falls into our laps, sure, otherwise we’re not going to stress over it” deadline want.

As I said last week, I think the Yankees should prioritize 2024, not putting band-aids on the 2023 team. A controllable young outfielder would be ideal (I admit I have no idea who this player is) and unearthing the next Clay Holmes would be cool too. Rentals unlikely to be brought back (Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Wandy Peralta, Luis Severino) should be shopped in a seller’s market.

Things are just now picking up around the league and I don’t want to read anything into it being so quiet around the Yankees. I’m tempted to say things are quiet because the Yankees still don’t know what they should do, which really means they know exactly what they should do (sell) but don’t want to do it. The entire trade market has been slow though. It’s not just the Yankees.

All I ask is the Yankees don’t do anything stupid at the deadline. Don’t trade higher end prospects for rentals, don’t use prospects as sweeteners to dump salary, that sorta thing. Realistically, the Yankees have more problems than can be fixed at one deadline, so please don’t make those problems worse by grasping at straws with ill-advised rental trades.

4. 2023 draft signings. The signing deadline for 2023 draft picks was this past Tuesday and, surprise surprise, the Yankees got all their guys signed. They exceeded their bonus pool but not so much that they’ll have to forfeit future picks as part of the penalty. No team has done that yet and I’m not sure any team will anytime soon. This year was business as usual.

Here’s my draft recap and here are the bonus numbers. As a reminder, the Yankees forfeited their second and fifth round draft picks to sign Carlos Rodón.

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement raised the slot value for all picks after the tenth round (and undrafted free agents) from $125,000 to $150,000. I didn’t realize that. My bad. Anything over $150,000 counts against the bonus pool, but you don’t get pool savings for going under. The Yankees went straight slot with every pick in rounds 11-20. Nothing to see there.

Wegner and Hendry were obvious bonus pool saving picks as college seniors (Wegner was a graduate student at Arkansas and the oldest player drafted this year), and the Yankees also saved a few bucks with Smith, Romero, and Judice. Those savings went to Lombard and Riggio. Lombard was committed to Vanderbilt and those guys usually require an overslot bonus to skip school.

Riggio was a draft-eligible sophomore, so he had a little extra leverage. The Yankees announced they had signed every pick except Riggio on July 18th. Looks like they got everyone else signed, then went to Riggio and said this is what we can afford, take it or leave. I don’t think it actually went down like that, but that’s what it looks like. Whatever. Everyone signed.

The Yankees still have $93,470 to spend before hitting the 5% excess spending threshold and forfeiting future picks*. That money could go to undrafted free agents – the Yankees gave East Carolina 1B Josh Moylan a $150,000 bonus as an UDFA, which Jim Callis says is the biggest UDFA bonus he’s seen so far this year – or they might not spend it at all. Who knows.

* Callis says the Brewers were $29 short of hitting the 5% threshold. Not $2,900 or $29,000. $29.

Including rounds 11-20, the Yankees spent $6,970,900 on draft bonuses this year. They went $171,500 over their bonus pool and are taxed 75% on that, so that’s a $128,625 penalty. All in, that’s $7,107,625 on draft spending, or roughly 40 innings of Gerrit Cole. So, that’s a wrap on the 2023 draft season. All the picks are in and everyone’s signed. Until next year.

(If you’re interested, Jonathan Mayo put together a super early 2024 mock draft. It’s only the top 20 picks, though the Yankees are in the top 20 because of their record.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Rob Manfred was re-elected as commissioner at the owners’ meetings earlier this week, MLB announced. He received a four-year contract extension through the 2028 season, so he’ll be at the negotiating table when the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in Dec. 2026. We’re gonna have to do all that again. Manfred is great at his job, which is advocating for the owners and making them money. He’s horrible at the public speaking part of the job, but he’s great at making the owners rich. There will never be a “good” commissioner again because good for the owners is very different than good for the fans. Manfred stinks. At least we’ll still be able to make fun of him when he says something stupid, which you know he will … And finally, the 2024 Spring Training schedule was announced earlier this week, if you’re interested in such things. I get more excited for the Grapefruit League schedule than the regular season schedule, probably because Spring Training is when baseball is truly back. Anyway, the Yankees open the Grapefruit League season Saturday, Feb. 24th, on the road against the Tigers. The home opener is the next day. Pitchers and catchers typically report 10 days before the first spring game, so Wednesday, Feb. 14th, or thereabouts. Now let’s get back to focusing on 2023.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Steve asks: With LeMahieu’s season very fresh in our minds, doesn’t it make sense for Judge to get the surgery now and not wait until November? Every video we see is him limping and Boone and Judge talk about “pain tolerance” … where is the voice of reason? Are they really going to let this toe injury ruin this season and next? It doesn’t make sense.

Steve sent this question in days ago, before it was reported Aaron Judge will rejoin the Yankees this weekend in Baltimore. It is certainly more timely now.

I will start by saying Judge’s injury and DJ LeMahieu’s injury are very different. LeMahieu had a broken bone and, back in Spring Training, he said he saw three different specialists and they suggested three different surgeries. There was no established treatment plan for his very unusual injury. They seem to have a better handle on Judge’s injury.

That said, I get what Steve is saying. This team’s upside is going on the road in the Wild Card Series and scoring five runs in three games. Why rush your franchise player back for that and make him play hurt (in Year 1 of a nine-year contract, no less)? Focus on 2024 you idiots! I wrote it last week. I’m on Team Soft Sell and part of that is doing whatever puts Judge in the best position for next season.

Taking a step back and looking at this rationally though, the Yankees are only 2.5 games back of a postseason berth, and Judge at 50% is better than most players. You only get so many bites at the apple with Judge and Gerrit Cole in their prime. Get into the postseason and you can win the World Series. It’s a long shot, but it’s better than the no shot the Yankees would have by missing the postseason all together.

I can’t give you a better answer than “we just have to trust the Yankees and their doctors,” which I know is not reassuring. I don’t think the Yankees would do anything that puts Judge at risk of a more serious, more long-term injury. From what I can tell, it’s a “it’s going to hurt but you can’t make it worse” thing, so he’s gonna play. Fingers crossed they’re right and Judge doesn’t make it worse, and this doesn’t affect him in the future in any way.

Andrew asks: MJ Melendez. Lefty “power” bat that was a highly rated prospect once upon a time. Is he a good fit?

Melendez is the epitome of “development isn’t linear.” Here is his career to date:

• 2017: Received a $2.1M bonus as the No. 52 pick in the draft
• 2018: Hit .251/.322/.492 (128 wRC+) with 19 HR and 30.3 K% in 111 G (Lo-A)
• 2019: Hit .163/.260/.311 (67 wRC+) with 9 HR and 39.4 K% in 110 G (Hi-A)
• 2020: Remade his swing at home during the canceled pandemic season
• 2021: Hit .288/.386/.625 (161 wRC+) with 41 HR and 21.7 K% in 123 G (AA and AAA)
• 2022: Called up in May, hit .217/.313/.393 (99 wRC+) with 18 HR and 24.5 K% in 129 G

Now 24, Melendez had a nice series in the Bronx last weekend (4-for-11 with two doubles), though he’s having a tough season overall: .217/.294/.356 (77 wRC+) with eight homers and 28.7% strikeouts. Sketchy defense puts him at -1.2 WAR. Melendez has struggled enough that smart Royals bloggers (always trust the bloggers!) believe a demotion to Triple-A is in order.

Melendez came up through the minors as a catcher, but a) he’s not unseating Salvador Perez, and b) he might be the worst defensive catcher in baseball. He ranks 49th in innings caught the last two years and in that limited sample he’s at -19 DRS (second worst) and -15.8 FanGraphs framing runs (fourth worst). I seriously doubt the Yankees would tolerate defense that poor behind the plate. I don't think any team would.

Apparently the Perez roadblock snuck up on Kansas City, because Melendez played only two games in the outfield in the minors before being called up last year. He’s quick and athletic and he plays hard, but his outfield defense is awful (-15 DRS and -8 OAA) because he has so little experience. The Royals did a bad job preparing Melendez to play the outfield (he's play mostly right but also a good amount of left).

Bad season and terrible defense aside, there are things to like about Melendez. He has real pop in his bat – you don’t fluke into 41 homers at Double-A and Triple-A as a 22-year-old – and it’s a Yankee Stadium friendly profile because Melendez has a low ground ball rate (career 37.1%) and he's a lefty who pulls the ball more than most (career 45.3%). Here are his fly balls and line drives the last two seasons overlaid on Yankee Stadium:

Melendez is an elite exit velocity dude (career 91.8 mph average and 11.0% barrel rate). When he makes contact, it is extremely favorable contact. Will he make enough contact? That’s the question. Melendez went from 24.5% strikeouts and 11.4% swinging strikes as a rookie last year to 28.7% and 15.7% this year, respectively. Scary leaderboard time:

In-Zone Contact Rate (min. 300 PA in 2022)
1. MJ Melendez, Royals: 74.5%
2. Brent Rooker, Athletics: 74.9%
3. James Outman, Dodgers: 76.1%
4. Ryan Noda, Athletics: 76.6%
5. Joey Weimer, Brewers: 76.7%
(MLB average: 84.9%)

Giancarlo Stanton, who is no one’s idea of a contact hitter, has an 80.1% in-zone contact rate this year, for reference. Melendez is legitimately one of the worst in the league at making contact in the strike zone (Joey Gallo is at 69.1%, though he doesn’t make the leaderboard because he's at 263 plate appearances due to injuries). He operates with a very small margin of error.

The Royals are not a good player development organization – they used their top five picks on highly regarded college pitchers in 2018 and somehow they have Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, and Ryan Yarbrough in their rotation in 2023 – and perhaps that makes Melendez a change of scenery candidate. Then again, the Yankees haven’t knocked it out of park with young hitters, so maybe the Yankees aren’t the best fit for him either.

This is all hypothetical because I don’t think the Royals are ready to sell low on a young player who looked like a long-term building block as recently as last season. I am intrigued though. Give Melendez time to settle in and I think he’ll be okay in the outfield (and if he has to move to first base, that’s a long-term position of need too). Can those contact rates be improved? Well, scroll back up and look at his 2019-21. Why can’t Melendez do that again?

Harrison asks: Let's say the Yankees do not sell at the deadline but end up missing the playoffs. Do the Yankees have any qualified offer candidates?

They have two: Harrison Bader and Luis Severino. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, so figure around $20M this offseason (it was $19.65M last offseason). Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Frankie Montas, and Wandy Peralta are also eligible for the qualifying offer, but obviously won’t get it. Magic Wandy rules, but $20M for a middle reliever ain’t happening.

The Yankees did not make Jameson Taillon the qualifying offer last offseason and Taillon was better and healthier than Severino heading into free agency, so I don’t think they’ll give one to Severino either. That doesn’t mean the Yankees won’t try to bring him back. It just means they’ll try to at a lower annual salary (and thus a lower luxury tax hit), if they try at all.

Bader’s an interesting case. The upcoming free agent class stinks, he might be a top 10 position player on the market, and the Yankees have a massive hole in center field. Bader comes with red flags (injury history, doesn’t hit righties, etc.) but he’s also a top of the line defender who loves being a Yankee. To me, overpaying him on a one-year deal via the qualifying offer is preferable to a long-term deal with a lower salary. Bader in 2024? Sure, I’ll take him. Bader in 2025 and beyond? Ehhh.

Keep in mind the Yankees will only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round (that will be the No. 130ish pick range) because of their luxury tax status. Is the qualifying offer risk worth that reward? The Yankees didn’t think so with Taillon. I don’t think they will with Severino and I could see them passing on Bader too. No matter what happens at the deadline and the rest of the season, this roster needs an overhaul over the winter. Letting Bader go may be part of it.

Paul asks: Am I reading too much into the recent hires of Sean Casey and Andy Pettitte that the Yankees, as an organization, feel like they need to better balance analytics vs whatever-you-call-not-analytics? Maybe even just in ways to better communicate what the data is telling them to the players, which could be facilitated by former players better than by people who've never played at this level? Or just a coincidence?

I don’t believe it’s a coincidence. Adding two longtime big leaguers – two big name guys in Casey and Pettitte – to a coaching staff that is relatively light on big league experience feels intentional (Pettitte’s not a full-time member of the staff, but you know what I mean). Perhaps former hitting coach Dillon Lawson, who never played above college, had trouble getting through to the players and/or garnering respect? Casey’s an instant respect guy when he walks into a clubhouse.

Teams tend to hire coaches on the opposite end of the spectrum from the guy they’re replacing. Just look at the last four Yankees managers. The overbearing Buck Showalter was replaced by the laid back Joe Torre, who was replaced by the intense Joe Girardi, who was replaced by the excessively chill Aaron Boone. Why wouldn’t the same apply to coaches? I 100% believe the Yankees are trying to create a more balanced and relatable coaching staff with Casey (and Pettitte). They went too far off the beaten path to hire Casey to think it’s a coincidence.

Dan asks: It's Wednesday night, I'm watching the Yanks vs Mets and Peraza just booted a ball that was scored a hit but probably should've been an error. Kay and O'Neil both mentioned that it seems like the official scorers have been scoring more hits this year that should've been errors. Do you think there's some validity to that? My tinfoil hat theory is that maybe there's a push by MLB to score more hits so as to help aid the increase in batting average, thus helping bolster the data that the new rules are making the game better. If the league has no qualms with lying about the rocketball, what would stop them from having the scorers score more borderline hits/errors as hits?

Here’s the Oswald Peraza play, in case you missed it. It was initially scored a hit but was later changed to an error, which it obviously is. That’s as clear an error as you’ll see. Here are the league error rates the last few seasons:

• 2018: 1.15 errors per game (that’s 1.15 errors between the two teams)
• 2019: 1.19
• 2020: 1.17
• 2021: 1.08
• 2022: 1.06
• 2023: 1.02

Errors are way down this year, especially compared to the pre-pandemic years. The difference between the 2023 error rate and the 2019 error rate is one error every 7.7 games, so roughly a night. Over a 162-game season, that’s a difference of 317 errors. Turn 317 errors into hits in 2019 and the league batting average jumps from .252 to .254. Two points league-wide is pretty significant.

I fully buy MLB instructing official scorers to score anything remotely close to a hit a hit to inflate batting averages. I’ve believed this for a while. Here’s a screen grab from our Slack room at CBS as evidence (two of our editors acknowledged my genius):

For what it’s worth, a few weeks ago Bob Nightengale came out and said MLB instructed official scorers to more generously score hits, so there you go. Some of these scoring decisions these days are absurd and I don’t know how else you explain them. It’s not like there has been a massive turnover among official scorers and the new generation is scoring more hits. It’s largely the same group of people making different decisions.

Pitchers should be most upset because all the non-error calls are inflating ERAs, which will cost them through arbitration (on the flip side, it helps hitters because it helps their AVG). As a spectator, eh, who really cares? The end result is the same on the field. There’s a guy on base either way. Whether they score it a hit or an error doesn’t change how I enjoy the game.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)