July 20th, 2023: Ohtani, Bullpen, Rodón, Carlson, Luxury Tax, Mailbag

Do you think Gerrit Cole is jealous he doesn’t get to face the Yankees?

The Yankees are in sole possession of last place this late in the year for the first time since the final day of the 1990 season. Granted, being 50-47 and in last place in the five-team AL East this year is a lot different than losing 95 games and being in last place in the seven-team AL East in 1990, but last place is last place. At least there's nowhere to go but up, right? Here is Friday morning’s post Thursday afternoon since the Yankees have an off-day.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees are three series into a four-series stretch against teams playing at a combined 95-loss pace (Cubs, Rockies, Angels, Royals) and they are 0-3 in those three series, and 2-7 in individual games. Per FanGraphs, the Yankees’ postseason odds have slipped from 60.9% before the Cubs series to 30.4% now. They’ve fallen from 55.6% to 30.4% just since the All-Star break. There’s still a lot of season to play and the Yankees are one good week from being back in a postseason spot, but sheesh, what a crash this has been. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

On pitching to Shohei

Shohei Ohtani is incredible, isn’t he? I want him on the Yankees so badly. He is in Barry Bonds territory right now, or 2022 Aaron Judge territory to use a more familiar name. Aaron Boone watched teams pay dearly for unnecessarily pitching to Judge in big situations all last season, and I think it was nice of him to give Angels fans that same happiness Monday night.

“When we have a two-run lead there – the guy hitting behind him (Mickey Moniak) is hitting .330 too – I wasn’t gonna put another runner out at second and the tying run on and the go-ahead run at the plate with a two-run lead,” Boone told Belle Fraser about not intentionally walking Ohtani in the seventh inning Monday. “Now, had (the runner at first) gotten to second and we were behind in the count or something, different story.”

The Yankees made an unforced error and pitched to Ohtani, and Ohtani tied the game with a monstrous two-run home run to center field. The bat flip was epic. An exclamation point on a highlight reel moment by a transcendent player while the team on the other end hit a new low. Good teams find ways to win games and bad teams trip over their own feet like the Yankees.

Pitching to Ohtani in that situation was obviously the wrong call – this isn’t a second guess, we all knew it at the time – and making it even dumber is the fact Boone (correctly!) intentionally walked him to load the bases with the score tied in the fifth inning. The Angels had runners on the corners with two outs and the Yankees walked Ohtani to push another run into scoring position. Why walk him in a tie game there but not with a two-run cushion in the seventh?

(Yes, I know Moniak hit a home run the next day and went 5-for-13 in the series. The guy has swung at 47.7% of the pitches he's seen outside the strike zone. I’d much rather pitch to him than Ohtani in any situation.)

And what’s up with the pitch selection? Mike King threw a 96 mph fastball by Ohtani to get to two strikes, decided to try it again, and got burned. Ohtani is way, way too good to beat with the same pitch twice. King may not realize this because he watches the Yankees offense all the time, but you have to mix it up against high level hitters. The same thing rarely works twice, especially on back-to-back pitches.

“Greedy,” King told Erik Boland about the home run pitch to Ohtani. “... Instead of just really throwing a chase fastball up and away, I tried to keep it close enough for him to swing, not obviously on the plate. But I can’t let him be the one that beat us and I did today.”

Ohtani is gonna hit home runs (and triples). He’s so good and you just have to accept it’s gonna happen. But the Yankees made mistakes when they pitched to him despite having two bases open*, and tried to beat him with back-to-back fastballs. They have to be smarter and I am not sure this team has the capacity to be smarter. They do dumb things all the time. Credit to Ohtani for not letting the Yankees get away with their mistakes. He is a marvel.

* I thought pitching to Ohtani leading off the ninth inning was a mistake too, but Nick Ramirez struck him out on three pitches. The Yankees got away with that one.

Bullpen trouble

Because enough things aren’t going wrong, the typically excellent bullpen is beginning to crack, either because it's overworked or the usual “that’s baseball, Suzyn.” This all happened within the last seven games:

• July 9th vs. Cubs: Blew a three-run lead in the seventh (Jared Young RBI ground out and Yan Gomes two-run single).
• July 16th at Rockies: Blew two-run leads in the eighth (C.J. Cron grand slam) and 11th (Nolan Jones two-run homer).
• July 17th at Angels: Blew a two-run lead in the seventh (Ohtani two-run homer).

That July 16th game in Colorado is somehow the first time in franchise history the Yankees blew two multi-run leads in the eighth inning or later. The Yankees have played 17,206 games, not counting the Highlanders years. You’d think at some point over the last century they would have checked that box, but nope.

King’s troubles are into their sixth week. He’s allowed a run in eight of his last 12 appearances (multiple runs in five of those eight games) and there’s been a lot of extra-base damage. Opposing hitters have a .225/.337/.479 line against him in those 12 games and 18.2 innings. Pitching to Ohtani in that seventh inning Monday was a mistake, but King set the two-run homer up by going from 0-2 to a walk against No. 9 hitter Eduardo Escobar.

“I’ve definitely been a little bit off mechanically,” King told Greg Joyce earlier this week. “That kind of correlates directly to confidence. So then instead of going out there and ripping it and having the feeling that I’m going to succeed. I do feel like I’ve made some adjustments that have gotten me back on track a little bit.”

Tommy Kahnle is in his first rut of the season*, throwing strikes is still a challenge for Wandy Peralta, Ron Marinaccio has been wobbly, Ian Hamilton hasn’t been quite as sharp since coming back from his groin injury, and Clay Holmes picked a really bad time to give up his first homer of the season last weekend in Colorado. Everyone’s a culprit in the bullpen malaise.

* Kahnle physically assaulted a fan Wednesday. You hate to see it.

Boone and the Yankees are desperate enough now that Holmes and Peralta warmed up Monday. It would have been the third straight day pitching for both – Boone said he was going to use Holmes in a save situation – and using a reliever three straight days is something the Yankees a) don’t like doing, and b) haven’t done all year. The Yankees need wins and are starting to push their go-to relievers.

Whatever the reason (workload, coming back to Earth, it’s just bad now, etc.) the bullpen has not been as reliable lately as it was earlier this year. The Yankees are still in the postseason race largely because the bullpen made every little lead stand up the first three months. Now those 1-2 run leads are slipping away, and the rest of the team isn’t good enough to pick up the slack.

Rodón’s kiss

Carlos Rodón blowing a kiss at booing fans Wednesday was not a good look (video). It’s not the end of the world and nothing that can’t be forgiven, but it just looks bad. Rodón is three starts into his Yankees career after three months on the injured list, and he was pitching like garbage. Fans are frustrated about everything. You’re gonna hear it, and reacting like that will only create more headaches.

For what it’s worth, Rodón handled it about as well as he could have after the game. From Bryan Hoch:

“It was the best reaction I could give,” Rodón said. “But better not to give a reaction, I guess. It was a frustrating outing, that’s for sure, and I showed it there in the second early.”

Rodón said there was no particular comment that prompted the exchange.

“I didn’t really pay mind to what was said,” Rodón said. “A fan was angry, as they should be. I’m angry, too. I was just angry at myself and blew a kiss, unfortunately.”

Rodón’s kiss doesn’t rise to the same level as Jack McDowell giving Yankee Stadium the finger, something that still defines McDowell's Yankees career even though he was fantastic after that game and helped get the Yankees to the postseason for the first since 1981. Rodón’s kiss was childish. It was not an unforgivable act in my eyes.

Pitch well and fans will like you (or at least tolerate you). Pitch poorly and you’re gonna get booed and called a bum. Pitch poorly and egg on fans like that, and you’ll dig yourself a hole. Rodón’s likely still rounding into form following the injury, but pitching well is the only way things get better. The Yankees need him to pitch well and he needs to pitch well to get everyone off his back, because he put a target on himself with that kiss.

“I just haven’t really done my job at all,” Rodón told Hoch. “But I think if I look at this group, we get punched in the face, and we get back on the saddle. Let’s see what happens on Friday. That’s kind of the mindset.”

Quick injury updates

Aaron Judge continued to take batting practice and run this week (he ran the bases for the first time Wednesday), which is certainly a good sign, though the Yankees continue to be cagey about his return date. He’ll be back when he’s back. Only way you can approach this now. Here are a few more quick-hit injury updates.

Greg Allen (hip): Allen is 5-for-14 (.357) with a homer in four rehab games and is expected to rejoin the Yankees when they start the homestand Friday, or soon thereafter. I figured Franchy Cordero would go down to clear a roster spot, though maybe his good game Wednesday buys him more time. I dunno. If nothing else, Allen will give the Yankees another actual outfielder to play the outfield, something that has been in short supply this season.

Jake Bauers (shoulder) and Willie Calhoun (quad): These two are on the verge of rehab assignments. Bauers has been working out with Triple-A Scranton and Calhoun with Double-A Somerset. The Yankees will have a bit of a roster crunch once they’re both healthy and ready to be activated, though the upcoming trade deadline could clear things up. Worry about the roster crunch when everyone gets healthy and there actually is a roster crunch.

Nestor Cortes (shoulder): Cortes threw a 35-pitch live batting practice session Monday (Judge stood in and tracked pitches but did not swing) and all went well. He is expected to begin a rehab assignment Sunday. Boone said Nestor will likely make three rehab starts (he can’t be activated off the 60-day injured list until Aug. 3rd anyway). How the Yankees squeeze six starters into five rotation spots is something we’ll worry about when Cortes is ready to be activated.

Josh Donaldson (calf): Donaldson’s season is likely over. He has a Grade 2+ right calf strain and the Yankees there's no timetable for his return. This is the fifth significant calf injury (fourth to his right calf) of Donaldson’s career and the previous four averaged 48 days on the injured list. At age 37, he’s not gonna heal faster now than he did in his 20s (I’m speaking from experience here). If he is indeed done for the year, Donaldson finishes his Yankees career with a .207/.293/.385 (93 wRC+) line and +2.2 WAR in 666 plate appearances. They paid him $50M. I don’t think this is Brian Cashman’s worst trade (giving way Mike Lowell will be hard to top) but it might be the second worst? Guessing we won’t see Donaldson at Old Timers’ Day anytime soon. (Donaldson is now a 60-day injured list candidate whenever a 40-man roster spot is needed.)

Luis Gil (elbow): Gil threw his second live batting practice Tuesday as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. I know this because he tweeted out the video. That suggests Gil could get into rehab games soon. Pitchers get a 30-day rehab period, though teams can request a second 30-day period for Tommy John surgery guys. The Yankees will likely time Gil’s rehab so they won’t have to activate him (and thus clear a 40-man roster spot) before the end of the regular season. They’ll be able to activate him at any time, of course, but they’ll avoid the 60 days running out before Game 162, just to retain roster flexibility. In that case, the earliest Gil would go out on an official minor league rehab assignment is Friday, Aug. 4th.

Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow): Loáisiga threw an extended two-inning bullpen session Sunday. The next step is facing hitters in live batting practice sometime this weekend. He could start a rehab assignment within 7-10 days, so figure a return in early-to-mid August as long as there are no setbacks. Hopefully Loáisiga comes back and dominates right away. The bullpen is beginning to falter.

Frankie Montas (shoulder): Remember him? Frankie the Yankee was in Los Angeles for a follow up exam on his shoulder earlier this week, so he joined the Yankees in Anaheim. He recently had to hit pause on his throwing program for a few days because of soreness, though it was typical post-surgery soreness and not a new injury. Montas has resumed throwing and is only playing catch. Not sure how far away he is from getting up on a mound. It’s looking like the best case is a return in September, and that’s far from a guarantee.

Miscellany

All things considered, good outing for Luis Severino on Monday, even though he navigated jams more than avoided them. He did reach back and hit 100 mph twice in the fifth inning. Severino had thrown only one pitch at 100 mph all season prior to that (May 27th vs. Padres). One run in six innings is one run in six innings. I’ll take it every time. Hopefully Severino can build on that outing and get back to truly dominating soon … Oswald Peraza isn’t good enough to be on the roster over Donaldson on Saturday but is good enough to hit leadoff on Monday. He reached base five times Monday and it says something that he came up and immediately had the best at-bats on the team. I’m not sure what it says, exactly, but it says something, and I’m not sure it’s good. Like a true 2023 Yankee, Peraza followed up Monday’s great game by going 0-for-8 with seven strikeouts the next two games … Anthony Volpe’s post-chicken parm hot streak is over. Volpe is 4-for-45 (.089) with 14 strikeouts in his last 12 games. Through the not insignificant sample of 364 plate appearances, Volpe is hitting .207/.278/.374 (80 wRC+). He’s been one of the worst hitters a) among rookies, b) in his age group, and c) overall this season. Hard not to be discouraged, especially since the Yankees seem to have no solution beyond letting him grind through it. Other teams (Cardinals with Jordan Walker, Dodgers with Miguel Vargas, etc.) have sent highly regarded prospects down when they stumbled this year. Why Volpe is immune to a Triple-A stint, I do not know, and I do not trust the Yankees to know what’s best when it comes to developing young hitters.

2. Latest trade deadline chatter. T-minus 12 days until the trade deadline. I want the Yankees to sell, and with each passing game that looks more and more like the correct choice, but I am not convinced they actually will sell. Just please don’t do something stupid, I ask. Here is the latest on the trade front, which isn’t much at the moment.

Yankees interested in Carlson

According to Mark Feinsand, the Yankees have interest in Cardinals center fielder Dylan Carlson. The 24-year-old is hitting .236/.344/.365 (103 wRC+) with good strikeout (20.1%), swinging strike (9.5%), and walk (11.0%) numbers this year. He's under control through 2026. A Cardinals fan friend of mine described Carlson as “Bader light. Excellent glove, can’t hit right-handers.”

“I try to keep my focus here in this clubhouse,” Carlson told Derrick Goold earlier this week about being the subject of trade rumors (again). “I’d be lying if I said you don’t hear that stuff. The best thing for me is keeping my focus in here and being ready to play when I’m called upon.”

Three years ago Carlson was one of the best prospects in baseball and he hit .266/.343/.437 (113 wRC+) en route to finishing third in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting. He played through a thumb injury last year and his numbers slipped, and he’s bounced back some this year, at least in the OBP department. The Yankees could no doubt use a .344 OBP guy.

As noted, Carlson doesn’t hit righties despite being a switch-hitter. This season he’s running an 84 wRC+ against righties and a 142 wRC+ against lefties. For his career, it’s a 90 wRC+ vs. 142 wRC+ split. Also, Carlson wears out left and center fields as a lefty batter. Here are his fly balls and line drives as a lefty the last two years. He’s not someone who will take advantage of the short porch:

The Yankees will need a center field next season and the interest in Carlson reminds me of their rebuild-on-the-fly efforts in 2015 and 2016. Those two years the Yankees traded for four young players who had not necessarily fallen out of favor with their previous teams, but had fallen behind someone else on the depth chart. To recap:

• Starlin Castro: Traded to clear room for Javy Báez and Addison Russell.
• Didi Gregorius: Traded to clear room for Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings.
• Aaron Hicks: Byron Buxton was ready to take over center field.
• Nathan Eovaldi: Made expendable by Jarred Cosart, José Fernández, and others.

Carlson had to compete for the center field job in Spring Training, lost it to Tyler O’Neill, and lately they’ve used Tommy Edman (when healthy) and Lars Nootbaar in center. Carlson has been a platoon guy more than an everyday player despite his defense, which rates well in all three spots. He’s down the depth chart a bit and the Yankees have a history of targeting these post-hype young players.

For the 2023 Yankees, Carlson won’t move the needle much, though he is better than everyone they’ve played in left field. We should look at him through the prism of 2024-26 though. Carlson is a good OBP guy and a great defender in center, and he turns only 25 in October. Where else are the Yankees getting a 25-year-old center fielder with this ability and top prospect pedigree?

Carlson is a Brett Gardner type more than a middle of the order masher and he does enough to help a contender at the bottom of the lineup. There’s always a chance he delivers on that former top prospect status too, and you get 2017-18 Sir Didi or 2017-20 Hicks production for a few years. If the Yankees need him to hit in the top or middle of the order, that’s a Yankees problem, not a Carlson problem.

The Cardinals want starters who have velocity and can miss bats, and earlier this week it was reported they might have interest in Clayton Beeter. He fits the mold. Here’s what president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Katie Woo the other day (subs. req’d):

“How we evaluate pitchers is something that we are taking a hard look at upstairs,” Mozeliak said. “More swing-and-miss versus ground-ball type would definitely be baked into future thinking.”

“Upstairs we’ve had an internal discussion about it,” he added. “We recognize how we are. We also were a team that was really good defensively, we understood how to shift. Having pitchers that allowed the ball to be put in play, especially on the ground was something we benefited from. … We’re not so stubborn or arrogant to say, ‘No, we’re just going to keep doing our system and hope for a better outcome.’ We understand that there has been a shift and we’ll try to adjust to it.”

The Yankees have several upper level pitching prospects who could interest the Cardinals under the whole “guys who miss bats” thing. Beeter, Richard Fitts, Chase Hampton, Randy Vásquez, Will Warren, etc. I’m not saying trade any or all of ‘em, just noting this is an area the Yankees have some depth. They traded from that depth last deadline and could do it again this year.

Carlson is a bit of a trade value unicorn as a former top prospect who has been good more than great in the big leagues, and has 3.5 years of control remaining. Few players who fit that criteria have been traded in recent years. Beeter for Carlson is an easy yes for me. I assume it would have to be Beeter+ for Carlson and I don’t know what that + looks like.

My focus is on 2024 and beyond more than 2023. I may be in the minority, but that’s my focus, and a multi-year contract for Harrison Bader scares me. Cool guy and all, and I appreciate that he loves being a Yankee, but the injury history, low OBP, and inability to hit righties are all red flags. He turns 30 next year and he’ll become unplayable pretty quick once his defense slips. I’d like to avoid a long-term Bader contract, if possible.

So, again, where else are the Yankees going to get a soon-to-be 25-year-old center fielder with a good glove, contact skills, on-base ability, and three years of control? If Carlson were playing up to his full potential, he wouldn’t be available, and certainly not at a price the Yankees could afford. He’s a good buy low target (at least in theory because I don’t know what the trade package looks like) who would fill a long-term need at an important position. I’m in.

Yankees may try to get under $293M luxury tax threshold

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees’ “dealings at the deadline might be influenced by a desire to get under the highest luxury-tax threshold, according to sources with knowledge of the team’s thinking but not authorized to speak publicly.” FanGraphs estimates the luxury tax payroll at $294.1M. Cot’s has it at $299.3M.

Originally, Rosenthal’s article said getting under the $293M third luxury tax threshold would avoid knocking next year’s first round pick back 10 spots and I panicked, because I was under the impression the draft pick penalty kicked in at the $273M second threshold. Soon thereafter Rosenthal corrected his article and yes, the draft pick penalty happens at $273M, not $293M. Phew.

Anyway, the Yankees incurred all the non-monetary penalties (first rounder moves back, worse compensation for qualified free agents, etc.) at $273M, so getting under $293M does nothing but save money. Save money and keep Hal Steinbrenner’s 29 business partners happy, because they all expected the new $293M third threshold to function as a hard payroll cap.

Assuming Cot’s is correct and the luxury tax payroll is $299.3M, the Yankees would need to clear at least $6.3M at the deadline to get to $293M. It’s really more like $8M to $10M because they’ll need to leave wiggle room for injury and September call ups down the stretch. You don’t want to work so hard to get under $293M only to have a pulled hamstring derail it on Sept. 15th, you know?

Let’s say the Yankees have to cut $10M to get under $293M comfortably. In-season luxury tax hits are prorated, and the deadline is the two-thirds point of the season, so that means unloading $30M in full season salary. That’s DJ LeMahieu ($15M) and Luis Severino ($15M), or Anthony Rizzo ($20M) and Gleyber Torres ($9.95M), or Giancarlo Stanton ($22M) and Frankie Montas ($7.5M). We’re talking about a sneaky big salary dump undertaking here.

And the thing is, getting under the third threshold would only save the Yankees about $12M. That’s the $6.3M over the $293M threshold and the 90% third penalty tier tax on that $6.3M. $12M is a lot of money in the real world, but really? That’s what you’re trying to save? And the actual number might be smaller than $12M because Cot’s $299.3M luxury tax payroll estimate seems a tad high to me.

Hopefully this is just a smokescreen and the Yankees trying to convince other teams they won’t take on money at the deadline. If the Yankees cut money because they trade veterans for young players, okay, but if they cut money just for the sake of cutting money, yikes man. Getting under $293M would be a straight cash grab. There’s no on-field or draft pick benefit.

(Realistically, there is no way the Yankees can get under the $273M second penalty tier to avoid pushing next year’s first rounder back 10 spots. They’d have to do something like unload Gerrit Cole’s entire contract to even come close to making it happen at the deadline.)

3. Rapid fire thoughts. FanGraphs is going through their annual Trade Values series and Anthony Volpe checks in at No. 27, ahead of players like Kyle Tucker and Ozzie Albies (and his absurdly team friendly contract). It’s a good read and it’s good to get a perspective on Volpe from folks who aren’t Yankees fans. When you’re a fan of a team and you watch them every single day, you notice every little flaw and tend to overrate the significance of those flaws. Every fan of every team thinks they make dumb baserunning mistakes and have a manager who misuses the bullpen. That’s just baseball. Volpe’s season certainly hasn’t been good, but it maybe hasn’t been as bad as it seems when you’re watching every swing and every at-bat. I was surprised (in a good way) to see Volpe at No. 27.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Stuart asks: What would the package need to look like to send Gleyber and Stanton to the Dodgers? How much cash would we need to include and would we need to add a prospect? (I might have my notes wrong but is it true the Marlins are off the hook for the $30m they owe if Stanton is traded?)

Using Gleyber Torres to dump Giancarlo Stanton’s contract might save the Yankees what, $5M a year on Stanton? If that? I have a hard time believing the Yankees can move Stanton without eating his entire contract. He turns 34 in November and he’s a DH with an injury history who isn’t hitting much these days. I don’t think attaching Gleyber as a sweetener would help much.

As for the $30M from the Marlins, that was contingent on Stanton not opting out after the 2020 season, and as far as I know it doesn’t go away if the Yankees trade (or release) him. That money is a few years away (Miami will send the Yankees $5M on July 1st and Oct. 1st in 2026, 2027, and 2028), though it counts for luxury tax payroll purposes now, and knocks Stanton’s number down to a reasonable $22M. His luxury tax hit is 44th highest in baseball this year.

I know it may not seem like it these days, but the Yankees aren’t stupid, and they knew Stanton’s contract was unlikely to age well at the time of the trade. They were willing to assume the bad years at the end to get the great years upfront, and now those bad years have arrived. I wouldn’t count on attaching a sweetener(s) to Stanton to net meaningful savings. Few million, maybe.

Gregg asks: The last few days, the Yanks started IKF and Cabrera in the OF. Crazy question but do you know how many games this season the Yankees started the game with three actual OF's (i.e. no IKF, Bauers, Cabrera, etc.) versus how many games they started 1-2 IF's masquerading as OF's.

The answer is 10 times. If we’re labeling Oswaldo Cabrera and Isiah Kiner-Falefa infielders (their natural positions), Jake Bauers a first baseman (his natural position), and Willie Calhoun a DH (the only position he is qualified to play defensively), the answer is 10 times. Ten times in 97 games the Yankees started three actual outfielders in the outfield:

• April 3rd vs. Phillies: Hicks in LF, Judge in CF, Franchy in RF
• April 10th at Guardians: Franchy in LF, Judge in CF, Stanton in RF
• April 11th at Guardians: Hicks in LF, Judge in CF, Franchy in RF
• April 12th at Guardians: Franchy in LF, Hicks in CF, Stanton in RF (Judge at DH)
• April 25th at Twins: Hicks in LF, Judge in CF, Franchy in RF
• May 9th vs. Athletics: Hicks in LF, Bader in CF, Judge in RF
• May 25th vs. Orioles: Allen in LF, Bader in CF, Judge in RF
• July 7th vs. Cubs: McKinney in LF, Bader in CF, Franchy in RF
• July 9th vs. Cubs: McKinney in LF, Bader in CF, Stanton in RF
• July 15th at Rockies: McKinney in LF, Bader in CF, Stanton in RF

If we consider Giancarlo Stanton a DH, which, come on, then it’s down to six times the Yankees started three actual outfielders in the outfield, or 6% of their games.

On one hand, players are more versatile than ever, and just about every team has a Cabrera or a Kiner-Falefa who they play in the outfield semi-regularly. On the other hand, 10 times in 97 games? Damn yo. Seems not great, and the left fielders having a -12 DRS and -5 OAA confirms my suspicions. Too bad the left field problem snuck up on the Yankees. No one saw this coming.

Emiliano asks: Looking at the standings I noticed that a lot of playoff teams (if the season ended today) have catchers who can hit. I know that's not the reason those teams (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Arizona, Texas, Baltimore) are at the top, but are we seeing a shift in what a catcher is and what successful teams need from their catchers to be successful? Even the Mets who have been awful have Francisco Alvarez who doesn't get on base but hits for a lot of power and probably will have better numbers if his teammates hit to their talent level.

The Astros won the World Series with Martín Maldonado (career 71 wRC+ and 62 wRC+ since 2021) behind the plate last year, so you don’t need a good hitting catcher to win, but it certainly helps. The Yankees made their two deepest postseason runs of the Aaron Judge era in 2017 and 2019, Gary Sánchez’s two best seasons. Coincidence? Eh, probably, but maybe not!

Catchers are hitting .233/.299/.386 (87 wRC+) this year and they’ve been around that level since 2015. They haven’t had a 90 wRC+ in a 162-game season since 2017 and they were right at 90 that year. Catchers hit .246/.312/.389 (93 wRC+) from 2012-14 and that was the most recent golden age of catcher offense. Those were the peak Jonathan Lucroy, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, and Buster Posey years. Those guys could really hit.

One thing we’ve learned the last few years is pitch framing can be improved a great deal through coaching. It’s an athletic move, so everyone has a ceiling somewhere, but guys can make pretty big gains. I think even bigger than teams realized when we first started putting a number on the value of framing. The Brewers are the best in the business at improving framing. Omar Narváez went from -10.4 framing runs with the Mariners in 2019 to +3.9 with the Brewers in the shortened 2020 season, and he stayed at that level the next few years.

Now that teams can teach framing, the all-glove archetype is becoming less popular, and clubs are beginning to lean back toward offense. William Contreras hit .278/.354/.506 (138 wRC+) with -2.8 framing runs with the Braves last year. The Brewers stole him as part of the three-team Sean Murphy trade and this year he’s hitting .274/.353/.448 (119 wRC+) with +10.3 framing runs. Milwaukee bought the bat and let their catching gurus go to work on Contreras’ framing.

Offense will never be the No. 1 priority at catcher because there is so much that goes into the position defensively. Game planning is insanely detailed now. Teams want their catchers to master that, first and foremost, presumably because their internal data shows it has a greater impact than a good bat. Some catchers can do both though, hit and game plan (and frame), and the teams that have those guys have a huge advantage.

I think we're seeing too things. One, it's an era of great catching talent. Guys like Adley Rutschman and Sean Murphy don't come around often. And two, a correction after the league zagged so hard toward framing. It starts with player development. I know the Rays internally ranked Luke Maile as their top prospect years ago because he’s such a good framer. That would never happen now. Teams seek more bat-first catchers in the draft and international free agency (see: Wells, Austin) and are trying to coach up the defense, which is what the Mets were able to do with Álvarez.

Poll executives and I think they’d tell you their priorities at catcher are 1) game planning, 2) framing, and 3) offense, whereas a few years ago it was 1) framing, 2) game planning, and then a big gap before 3) offense. Offense is still behind the defensive stuff, though not quite as far as it was a decade ago. There has been a slight shift toward offensively minded catchers, yeah.

John asks: Could the reason for Austin Wells being in AA for as long as he has been, be the fact that AAA is utilizing the ABS and the Yankees want him to continue to develop his framing? Could it really be that simple? I think it’s more of the fact they have a catching “logjam” with Higgy and Trevino “blocking” Rortvedt and Narváez, but could it be a bit of both?

It is possible, though they only use the fully automated strike zone three days a week in Triple-A. They use the fully automated zone Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are the challenge system, in which a human umpire calls balls and strikes and teams can appeal three calls per game to the automated system. (Monday is the universal off-day in the minors.)

Wells would still be able to work on his framing in game situations Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Triple-A. He’s on a catch-catch-DH three-day schedule right now, so that’s only two days a week with the human umpire, but are the two additional days each week worth keeping him in Double-A, especially since the automated zone may only be 2-3 years away from eliminating framing as a skill in the big leagues? Don’t you risk stunting his offensive development?

I hope the Triple-A catching logjam doesn't have much to do with it. Carlos Narvaez has played some first base this year. Narvaez, Wells, and Ben Rortvedt can all coexist in a big catcher/first base/DH rotation. Good teams make room for young players and bad teams make excuses. I think Wells is still in Triple-A because the Yankees are working on the entirety of defense, not just framing, and it’s fair to wonder if it is to the detriment of his offensive development.

Alessandro asks: How sad is the state of affairs in MLB that the expanded playoffs/"emphasis on parity across the league" has resulted in more teams that are close to .500, but not because schedules are tough and balanced, but because no team is pressured to be better than the bare minimum?

For the owners, that is a benefit of the new postseason system. Everyone gets to say they’re in the race (including the 2023 Yankees!). For fans, it stinks, because you no longer have to be a great team to get to the postseason, so why would owners and front offices bother to try to go from, say, 88 wins to 92? You wind up with a bunch of okay and maybe even good, but certainly not great, teams.

Right now, I think the Braves are the only truly great team in baseball. The Rays started very well but are 40-36 in their last 76 games. That’s a 85-win pace for two-plus months and more in line with their preseason projections. The Rangers have cooled off the last month or so, the Orioles lack the rotation to be legit great, the Dodgers have been up and down, the Centrals … lol.

Every night it feels like your viewing options are one great game, 13 games between two teams within a few games of .500, and one game between two teams so bad you don’t even have to acknowledge their existence. It’s like facing a position player pitcher when one of those awful teams comes up on the schedule. If your team wins, it’s because they’re supposed to, and if they lose, it’s frustrating.

Just about everything in this game is cyclical, so hopefully we soon get back to having a few superteams. The game is more entertaining that way. Superteams are villains and sports are better when there are teams or players everyone hates. Sure feels like winning is taking more of a backseat among the ownership ranks though. Sucks.

Michael asks: Who do the Yankees have to put on the 40-man this offseason? Which of those players could they trade?

The trade deadline is also 40-man roster cleanup time. Players on the Rule 5 Draft protection bubble are common trade fodder and we can reasonably assume the Yankees will push those players in trades again this deadline. Here are their notable minor leaguers eligible for the Rule 5 Draft after this season (asterisk indicates the player will be a minor league free agent, not just Rule 5 Draft eligible):

• Catchers: Josh Breaux, Antonio Gomez, Carlos Narvaez*, Austin Wells
• Infielders: Andrés Chaparro*, Jared Serna, Alex Vargas
• Outfielders: Jasson Domínguez, Elijah Dunham, Estevan Florial*
• Righties: Clayton Beeter, Juan Carela, Blas Castano, Carson Coleman, Matt Sauer, Mitch Spence
• Lefties: Edgar Barclay

Beeter, Domínguez, and Wells are the only slam dunk 40-man adds. Single-A catchers are not popular Rule 5 Draft targets because that’s an enormous jump, so Gomez can be left exposed. Vargas is a name more than a prospect now, and Barclay, Castano, Sauer, and Spence are upper level depth arms. Maybe some team gives them a look as a last guy in the bullpen type as a Rule 5 Draft pick. Maybe not. Serna is mashing in Low-A. Low-A hitters are rarely Rule 5 Draft candidates though.

Narvaez is having a breakout season and Chaparro has been just okay. They’re both in Triple-A. If they’re not traded at the deadline, they’re “add to the 40-man before they become free agents and trade them” candidates. The Yankees did that with Donny Sands two years ago. Chaparro is much more likely to go than Narvaez just because decent catching isn’t easy to find. Putting Florial back on the 40-man in November seems cruel. Let him go. Be free, young man.

Dunham performed so poorly in Triple-A that the Yankees demoted him to Double-A two weeks ago, and Coleman won’t pitch this season. He had a non-Tommy John elbow surgery in Spring Training. Not sure either is at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. Carela is pitching well in High-A but isn’t a top prospect. Listing him here might be a bit overzealous of me.

Other than Domínguez, I think every player listed here is a deadline trade candidate, and I don’t think Domínguez is off-limits either. He’s just not going in anything less than a blockbuster. Wells is entering the “they don’t like him as much as they say” zone for me given how long he’s been in Double-A. He’s a trade candidate because they’re all trade candidates (some more than others).

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