July 14th, 2023: All-Star Game, Jersey Patch, Bellinger, Mailbag

The Yankees open the second half Friday night at Coors Field and it is a damn shame Aaron Judge will miss the series. I want to see what happens when he connects with a ball a mile up. The Yankees have not been to Coors Field since 2016 (they have played in every other current stadium at least once since then) and, the last time they played there, Ike Davis started at first base. Feels like a century ago. Let’s get to today’s post. (Here’s my 2023 draft recap, in case you missed it.)

1. The All-Star Game (and the second half). The 2023 All-Star Game is in the books and the American League’s nine-year winning streak is over. Rockies catcher Elias Díaz hit the go-ahead two-run home run against Orioles closer Félix Bautista in the eighth inning to give the National League the 3-2 win (video). That’s what the O’s get for co-opting the King Félix nickname.

"When I was rounding the bases, I was just overwhelmed with emotion,” Díaz, a 32-year-old first time All-Star who got non-tendered by the Pirates three years ago, told Mark Feinsand after being named All-Star Game MVP. Pretty cool moment for Díaz.

As for the Yankees, Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge were their only All-Stars, and Judge didn’t make the trip so could continue receiving treatment on his toe under the Yankees' supervision. Cole started and threw a 1-2-3 inning (video). Adolis García and Randy Arozarena helped him out with leaping catches at the wall. Gerrit got a taste of what life is like with actual outfielders in the outfield. Hope he didn’t get too used to it.

“I think it worked out great. They got good swings. Got out of there (in) nine pitches, and we played great D,” Cole told Mark Sanchez. “… It was great. A lot of adrenaline for a bullpen day.”

My only additional comment on the All-Star Game is it is so lame they went to a single uniform. Players wearing their team’s uniform was so cool and unique. It was so fun seeing a Yankee in right field, an Angel in center, etc. It was easier to identify players too, which I imagine was helpful for casual fans tuning in only to see their guy(s).

I hate – and I think hate is an appropriately strong word here – making everyone wear the same uniform. One of the coolest things about the All-Star Game was seeing all the different players and all the different uniforms on the field together. I’m not much of a traditionalist, but this is one tradition they should’ve kept. MLB needs the extra jersey sale money, I guess.

Anyway, the Yankees open the second half Friday night against Díaz and the Rockies and boy, new hitting coach Sean Casey has a chance to look real smart, real fast. Three games in Coors Field against a Rockies' pitching staff that wasn’t good to begin with, and is now depleted by injuries? The Yankees might put up 22 runs in three games like they did in Oakland a few weeks ago. Casey will look like a genius! I’m all for it. Don’t care who gets credit or looks smart. Just score runs.

Three games with the Rockies, three games with the Mike Trout-less Angels, three games with the Royals. That’s what the Yankees are looking at coming out of the All-Star break. We know this team is capable of fumbling the bag (see: the Oakland and St. Louis road trip), so those aren’t wins in the bank, but the Yankees really need to do damage these next 10 days. Their postseason hopes are starting to depend on it.

“Ultimately, you’ve got to play well enough to get into the dance, and then you’ve got to play your best baseball at that time,” Cole told Andy McCullough (subs. req’d) earlier this week. “So you’ve got to take the experiences that you have throughout the season – positive and negative – and use them to your advantage. It’s gonna be on us to adjust and continue to get better. We do need to get better. That’s for sure.”

2. Welcome to the jersey ad patch era. The Yankees have themselves a jersey advertising deal. It was only a matter of time. Earlier this week the Yankees announced a jersey ad deal with Starr Insurance. It runs through 2031 and Darren Rovell says it averages $25M a year, so that’s $200M from 2024-31, plus whatever they’re paying for the rest of 2023. Here’s the patch:

“We are extremely proud to welcome Starr Insurance as the Yankees’ first-ever Signature Partner,” Hal Steinbrenner said in a statement. “Having had Starr as an insurance carrier of ours for the last decade and having worked closely with their leadership team as part of our preestablished partnership, it is clear that Starr is the right company to embark with on this landmark relationship. There were many aspects of Starr that aligned with our organization, including their century-plus history, significant New York presence, worldwide reach and unparalleled commitment to the community. My father was also well-acquainted with (Starr CEO Maurice Greenberg), whose devotion to philanthropy I deeply respect.”

You may have noticed this with other teams, but the patch placement is based on handedness. Aaron Judge will have the patch on his left sleeve so it’s facing forward when he’s batting, and Anthony Rizzo’s patch will be on his right sleeve for the same reason. Oswaldo Cabrera is a switch-hitter and his patch placement will be based on that day’s opposing starter. I'm not joking. You may not like it, but these things will be inescapable. Eventually though, they’ll blend into the background. Trust me.

I have no opinion of the jersey ads nor do I really care they’re there. I was unmoved when they put the New Era logo on caps or the Nike swoosh on jerseys (or ads all over the outfield walls, which really only started to become a thing 20-ish years ago). No sense in getting worked up over something I can’t control, I guess. It’s gonna happen whether I like it or not. The patch itself is unobtrusive and the colors blend in somewhat, at least. Whatevs.

The jersey ads are a $25M a year revenue stream the Yankees didn’t have before, and I assume that money will go into their “we thought about signing Shohei Ohtani, but we think it’s prudent to avoid a long-term contract, so we traded for Patrick Corbin and Avisail García instead” fund. There is no reason – zero – for payroll not to go up now. Any excuses Hal gives are nonsense.

The Yankees act like the pinstripes are sacred when in reality they’re up for sale, just like everything else. They’ll dump the facial hair policy as soon as they figure out how to monetize beards. So, give me a City Connect uniform already. Or at least an alternate jersey. The Yankees will make money off those too! Jersey ads have arrived. Might as well fully embrace jersey weirdness.

(There’s a joke in here somewhere about Hal saying “This is New York City, fans want the stars” on June 13th, then announcing a jersey ad deal with Starr Insurance a month later.)

3. Scouting the Trade Market: Cody Bellinger. The trade deadline is only two weeks and four days away and, clearly, the Yankees need to do something. The offense is below average overall and it has been dreadful lately, and we have no idea when Aaron Judge will return. Left field is not the only position the Yankees could stand to upgrade, but it is the most obvious.

Enter Cody Bellinger, who we saw in the Bronx last weekend. Bellinger took Carlos Rodón deep (video) and is a trade candidate as a rental player on a team that is 42-47 and 6.5 games out of a postseason spot. The NL Central is bad enough that the Cubbies are one good week away from being right back in the race. Until that happens, we can reasonably assume Bellinger is available.

“I understand the circumstances,” Bellinger told Sahadev Sharma (subs. req’d) recently. “I don’t think about it. I try not to think about it. It’s all out of my control.”

What’s Bellinger’s story? Should the Yankees pursue him? Let’s dig into all that and more now. Here’s what you need to know about Bellinger in advance of the trade deadline.

Background

Bellinger’s father, Clay, broke into the big leagues with the Yankees and picked up three World Series rings in a four-year career (1999-2000 Yankees, 2002 Angels). “The Yankees obviously mean a lot to our family. He won a few championships here, a role player and pretty good player. It was obviously all in the old stadium, but still feels the same,” Cody told Max Goodman during the Cubs series last weekend.

As a player, Cody is nothing like this father. Clay was a light-hitting utility guy. Cody is a two-time All-Star, a former NL Rookie of the Year, and a former NL MVP with a +8.6 WAR season on his resume. That MVP season was something else: .305/.406/.629 (161 wRC+) with 47 homers.

Bellinger, who turned only 28 on Thursday, has not been that player since 2019, however. Not even close. He hit .203/.272/.376 (78 wRC+) in over 1,100 plate appearances from 2020-22 and the Dodgers non-tendered him last winter. The Dodgers are as smart as it gets and they develop hitters as well as team, and yet they gave up on their former MVP. They couldn’t solve him.

The Cubs signed Bellinger to a one-year, $17.5M prove-yourself contract over the winter. He took a .298/.355/.491 (126 wRC+) line with nine homers and 11 steals into the All-Star break.

Offense

Bellinger’s .298/.355/.491 (126 wRC+) slash line is very good, though getting there has been an adventure. This is what the youths call extreme variance:

• April: .297/.391/.604 (158 wRC+) with 16.2 K% and 9.2 BB% (105 PA)
• May and June: .237/.284/.301 (65 wRC+) with 23.5 K% and 6.9 BB% (102 PA)
• July: .471/.500/.706 (224 wRC+) with 5.3 K% and 7.9 BB% (38 PA)

The slash line is the slash line. More important are the offensive skills and how they’ve changed over the years. During his MVP peak, Bellinger was a hard-contact monster who drove the ball as well as anyone in the sport, and didn’t strike out excessively while doing it. With the Cubs this year, he’s upped his contact rates even further, but has sacrificed hard-hit ability in the process:

Bellinger is a tinkerer (he shows up to Spring Training with a new batting stance every year) and by all accounts a hard worker and coachable, and he tried many different things to right the ship with the Dodgers. Alas and alack, Bellinger has big market team media training, so he talks in generalities and hasn’t detailed any of the adjustments he made with the Cubs this year.

“We knew that he’d gone through a couple different swing changes and tried a number of different things,” Cubs assistant hitting coach Dustin Kelly, who worked with Bellinger when he was a minor league hitting instructor with the Dodgers, told Sharma and Patrick Mooney (subs. req’d) in April. “... The core values of what we identified as being athletic – creating a little bit more of a hip hinge and setting a really good hand placement – has remained the same.”

Bellinger’s contact quality and slash line do not match up at all (AVG vs. xAVG, etc.), and while Statcast’s expected stats are useful, they are an oversimplification. He is an extreme fly ball hitter, always has been (career 35.1% grounders), and the direction of those fly balls matter. Here’s the breakdown of Bellinger’s fly balls and line drives this season:

(Just to be clear, this tells you Bellinger has pulled 38.0% of his fly balls and line drives, and 51.4% of those pulled fly balls and line drives have had a 95 mph exit velocity or better.)

Hitters who consistently outperform their contact quality metrics generally pull more than 50% of their fly balls and line drives (and it’s often closer to 60%). They don’t put up huge exit velocities, but they get the most out of what they have by pulling the ball when they put it in the air. Ozzie Albies has become the poster boy for this hitting profile. Isaac Paredes and a few other Rays do this too. Bellinger’s 38.0% pull rate on fly balls and line drives isn’t especially reassuring.

I haven’t watched Bellinger much this season, so maybe he has turned into a hit it where they ain’t type who wears out the patch of grass in front of outfielders with bloops and low liners. I dunno. Bellinger has a pretty swing and we saw how well it can play in Yankee Stadium when he took Rodón into the second deck last week, but he hits the ball in the air more toward Death Valley in center and left-center. It’s not exactly a batted ball profile optimized for Yankee Stadium.

Furthermore, opposing defenders have a -5 OAA when Bellinger is at the plate, one of the worst marks in the league. Look at this. Every single one of those was scored a hit (three doubles and a single). They’re chronological, but I appreciate that they get increasingly hilarious. Bad defense and generous official scoring is one way to turn a .392 xSLG into a .491 SLG, eh?

To be fair, Bellinger is very fast and he makes a lot of contact. For every double on an outfielder falling down, there’s an infield single or a bloop he turns into a hustle double. He does make his own luck to some extent. Still, this is not the most convincing .298/.355/.491 (126 wRC+) line. It’s built on a lot of less than stellar contact and some shoddy defense. I am: skeptical.

As for baserunning, Bellinger is excellent there. He’s not gonna steal 30 bags (career high is 15 steals in 2019) but his extra-base taken rate is elite (56%) and he knows how to use his legs to pressure defenses. Bellinger has played in a big market, in the postseason, in the World Series, the works. He knows what that’s all about. I see that as a plus.

Defense

Bellinger was drafted as a first baseman and he started his pro career as a first baseman, but he’s so fast and so athletic that the Dodgers eventually put him in center field, and he’s really good out there. Career +12 DRS and +21 OAA, and he has a rocket arm. He still plays first base on occasion too. So, if you need him to do that, Bellinger can do that too.

Now, as good as Bellinger is in center, he’s no Harrison Bader. Bellinger would have to move to left field, a position he’s played infrequently in the big leagues (315.1 career innings) and not at all since 2018. Athletically, I’m certain Bellinger could handle left. It’s just a matter of getting used to the reads and whatnot. And, if Bader gets hurt again (let’s be real, that’s a distinct possibility), Bellinger is more than capable of stepping into center full-time.

(Keep in mind the defensive bar in left field is on the floor. Yankees left fielders have -11 DRS and -5 OAA this season, mostly because they’re playing infielders out there. Bellinger could struggle with the transition and be a merely average defensive left fielder, and he’d still be a huge improvement. I think he’d handle left field just fine though, and be an asset out there.)

Injury history

Bellinger has had several significant injuries. Mostly “baseball” injuries, for lack of a better term. Recapping the serious stuff:

• Nov. 2020: Offseason arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn right labrum.
• April 2021: Missed nearly two months with a hairline fracture in his leg after a collision at first base.
• Sept. 2021: Missed a week with a fractured rib after an outfield collision.
• May 2023: Missed a month with a knee contusion after crashing into the wall.

The shoulder surgery is a big one. Bellinger had several shoulder dislocations early in his career (popped out and popped right back in after diving for a ball, etc.) and it finally gave out during an aggressive forearm smash in the 2020 postseason. The Dodgers hoped the shoulder surgery and hairline fracture in his leg explained Bellinger’s poor 2021-22 seasons, but no dice. He was bad when healthy too.

Other than the shoulder, which has given him no trouble since surgery, Bellinger has no chronic injuries in history, and as far as we know he’s not dealing with any nagging issues right now. It’s a 2-3 month rental. There’s a chance Bellinger could pull an Andrew Benintendi and suffer an unforeseen injury while with the Yankees, but that’s just baseball and the risk you take with any rental. There are no immediate red flags here (like there was with Frankie Montas' shoulder last year).

Contract status

The Cubs signed Bellinger to a one-year contract worth $17.5M, but they refuse to be normal, so it’s somewhat complicated. Here’s the breakdown:

• 2023: $12.5M salary
• 2024: $25M mutual option ($5M buyout)
• Bellinger will become a free agent if the mutual option is declined

(Bellinger also gets a $1M bonus for winning Comeback Player of the Year, which he won’t do if he changes leagues at the deadline.)

Mutual options – both sides have to say yes – never get picked up. They’re just a way to move money to next year’s payroll. The trade deadline is, conveniently, at the two-thirds point of the season this year. One-third of $17.5M is $5.775M. But, because of the contract structure, you’re really taking on $9.125M (33% of his $12.5M salary plus the $5M buyout next year). Stupid Cubs.

The Cubs are willing to eat money to get a better return (see: Anthony Rizzo trade), though the Yankees shouldn’t have to do that. All the injury call ups have nudged payroll over the $293M third luxury tax threshold (FanGraphs estimates payroll at $294.1M), and there’s no use in going back under. It’s just a higher tax rate. All the non-monetary penalties were incurred at $273M. Giving up more/better prospects to avoid a few bucks in tax would be absurd. I don’t think it’ll happen.

What would it take?

Last year’s Benintendi package would be ideal. The Yankees sent the Royals three Single-A pitchers, none of whom ranked among their best prospects and none of whom they currently miss, and called it a day. Benintendi last year and Bellinger this year share similarities too:

• A 128-ish wRC+ that might not last all year.
• Legitimately excellent defense and baserunning.
• Youth (28) and pedigree with big market champions.

The Cubs operate differently than the Royals, however. When they ripped apart their core a few years ago, Chicago went for quality over quantity. They traded their guys (Rizzo, Javy Báez, etc.) for that one great prospect rather than 2-3 good prospects. The Royals were cool with a bunch of second and third tier guys. The Cubs sought that one stud.

Chicago can plausibly say they’re planning to give Bellinger the qualifying offer after the season, which would net them a draft pick immediately after the first round (assuming Bellinger signs a contract worth $50M+). So, the get-in price is a prospect equivalent to a pick immediately after the first round. Anything less isn’t worth their time. The Cubs have the high draft pick in their back pocket.

What does that trade package look like then? The guys in the farm system roughly equivalent to a pick immediately after the first round are Chase Hampton, Will Warren, Austin Wells, etc. I do not want to surrender a prospect like that for a rental. If we were talking about the final piece to possibly put a great team over the top, sure, but we’re talking about a team with numerous holes and injuries trying to back into a Wild Card spot. We gotta be realistic about this squad.

Different teams value players differently and who knows, maybe the Cubs view someone like Justin Lang or Matt Sauer fair value, and the Yankees can get away with that. Also, supply and demand drives the market. If there’s a bidding war for Bellinger – and there very well might be – the price could exceed what the algorithm says he’s worth real quick.

(Also, if the Yankees are planning to pursue Bellinger as a free agent in the offseason, there is value in acquiring him at the deadline and seeing how he fits with the team. That’s not the kinda value you pay the Cubs to acquire, but it exists.)

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

On the surface, yes, of course. Bellinger’s a lefty hitter who can use the short porch, doesn’t strike out excessively, can play good to great defense, and is familiar with playing in a big market. That checks just about every box, yes? I suppose you could prefer someone with multiple years of team control, but if you can find someone realistically available who is under control long-term and does all that, you’re better at this than me.

I’m not sold on .298/.355/.491 (126 wRC+) being Bellinger’s true talent level, though it’s possible (probable) there are other indicators suggesting Bellinger will be an above-average hitter moving forward. And the question is, okay, so he’s maybe not a .298/.355/.491 (126 wRC+) hitter, but what is he really? If Bellinger is, say, a .270/.330/.430 guy, that could help the Yankees too.

The other variable: Bellinger might be the best outfielder available. The Cardinals plan to sell, but unless they put Lars Nootbaar on the table, there’s no real fit there. Tyler O’Neill only exacerbates the too right-handed/too swing-and-miss-y problem. I’m not sold on Lane Thomas. Randal Grichuk doesn’t move the needle. Adam Duvall? Max Kepler? Tommy Pham?

Even with a fall back to Earth possibly on the way, Bellinger may be the best fit for the Yankees given the alternatives. And we’re only talking about a 2-3 month rental here. Who’s to say you don’t run into 2-3 great months? Maybe Bellinger .450 BABIPs his way into our hearts and a regrettable long-term extension. Weirder things have happened.

Obviously the cost will factor into this, but I begrudgingly think Bellinger is the best outfield option for the Yankees at the deadline. He checks the most boxes and offers the most upside. Looking over the list of outfield trade candidates, Bellinger’s the only one with the ability to put a team on his back for a few weeks. Maybe a surprise name will hit the market soon. Until that happens, Bellinger is likely the best the Yankees can do in left field at the deadline given their specific needs.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB announced the 2014 regular season schedule earlier this week. If you came here seeking a deep dive into next year’s schedule, I’m sorry to disappoint you. The schedule is only so interesting to me. All I care about is whether the Yankees are going to South Korea or Paris or something like that, and no. Not next year. Opening Day is Thursday, March 28th, and the Yankees begin the season with a seven-game road trip (four in Houston and three in Arizona). The home opener is scheduled for Friday, April 5th, against the Blue Jays. Here’s the schedule. Peruse at your leisure.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Max asks: Can you analyze Tommy Pham and David Robertson as potential trade targets?

Now 38, Robertson is the same guy he’s always been. Cutters and curveballs, very good against righties and great against lefties, strikeout rate around 30% (29.9% to be exact), Houdini acts, willingness to pitch in any role. He’s pretty much the perfect modern reliever. Flexible and very effective. I would happily welcome Robertson back. He’s forever cool with me.

As for Pham, the 35-year-old is having his best season in years, taking a .277/.350/.485 (130 wRC+) line into the All-Star break. He’s been streaky – Pham went 3-for-23 (.130) in the last six games of the first half and immediately prior to that he went 26-for-64 (.406) in 17 games – but who isn’t streaky? Consistency is a myth. Pham has long been a Statcast superstar …

… and he combines league average strikeout rates with double-digit walk rates and single-digit swinging strike rates. His defense has slipped (whose hasn’t at 35?) and he would be another righty bat in a lineup that needs a lefty. The TL;DR version is Pham is an imperfect fit because he would worsen the lineup imbalance, but he’s way better than the Yankees’ current left fielders.

Robertson ($10M) and Pham ($6M) are both working on one-year contracts. The Mets have made two trades in recent weeks and both times they ate all the money to get better returns:

• Angels: Eduardo Escobar for two pitching prospects (ate $5M)
• Mariners: A DFA’d pitcher for Trevor Gott and Chris Flexen

Steve Cohen has more money than anyone could possibly spend in one lifetime, but the Mets took on about $8.5M between salary and luxury tax in the Gott/Flexen trade, and they immediately designated Flexen for assignment. It’s one thing to throw your money around. It’s another to pay $8.5M for literally Trevor Gott. Whatever man.

Point is, the Mets are using their money to get the best possible trade return, so you’ll have to give up something good to get Pham and/or Robertson. The Phillies gave up a fringe top global 100 pitching prospect (Ben Brown) to get Robertson at last year’s deadline. The Red Sox  ate Pham's salary and gave up a non-top 30 team prospect (Nick Northcut) to get him last summer.

On the field, sure, Robertson and Pham both fit, though I would hope the Yankees exhaust all possibilities for a lefty bat before moving forward with Pham. The question is cost. If the Mets insist on eating all the money to get the best possible prospects back, that might be an issue. The Yankees should be doing the exact opposite at the deadline, and paying the money so they can give up lesser prospects.

Dan asks: Am I crazy to think the Yanks haven't been a good team (outside of their couple of months last season) since 2019?

I don’t want to lecture anyone but there is a difference between bad and Yankees bad. The Yankees have not been bad since 2019. They have the fifth most wins (273) and the fifth best winning percentage (.575) since the start of the 2020 pandemic season, and you can’t have the fifth best record in a 30-team league over a four-season span while being bad.

The Yankees have been Yankees bad since 2019 though. The Yankees played at an 89-win pace in 2020, they won 92 games in 2021 and had to eke out a 1-0 win in Game 162 to avoid a Game 163 tiebreaker, and they’re on an 87-win pace this year. Plus they’re 6-11 in the postseason since 2020, including 2-8 against teams other than Cleveland. Those aren’t happy endings.

Furthermore, the Yankees had a below average offense in 2021 (19th in runs per game) and they have a below-average offense in 2023 (also 19th in runs per game), and they limped to the finish last year. Nothing hurts the spectator's experience more than a poor offense. A poor offense is a major drag and it makes the team less enjoyable, and appear worse than they actually are.

The Yankees haven’t been bad because they have won a lot of games compared to the rest of the league, though they have been Yankees bad because we expect a bona fide World Series contender, and they’re a notch (or two) below that. We were told the Yankees needed to get younger to win a title, they got younger, and six years later we’re still waiting for the payoff.

As Yankees fans, our perception of “bad” is different than everyone else’s. It just is. Expectations are greater here and we hold the team to a higher standard. Such is life when a large portion of the fan base has never seen a losing season. The Yankees look bad to us, but they’re not really bad. They’re certainly not as good as they should be though. We should and do expect more.

Chris asks: DJ LeMahieu gains 5/10 rights after this season, which means August 1st is essentially the team’s last chance to offload his contract. Do you view that as something they should consider, and how movable is that contract?

LeMahieu’s contract includes a full no-trade clause from 2021-22 and a five-team no-trade list from 2023-26 (we don’t know the five teams). He picks up 10-and-5 rights after this season, so the Yankees left the door open for a trade this year and this year only. It’s the only year during his contract they can trade LeMahieu to 24 of the other 29 teams without his permission.

As for considering a LeMahieu trade, I mean, yes? He turned 35 earlier this week, he’s hitting .220/.285/.357 (78 wRC+) this season, and he’s hitting .223/.294/.346 (81 wRC+) in 488 plate appearances since last year’s All-Star break. The Yankees owe LeMahieu the rest of his $15M salary this year plus $45M total from 2024-26. They absolutely should look to trade him.

LeMahieu has negative trade value at this point. The Yankees are going to have to eat money to move him by paying his salary while he plays elsewhere and/or taking back a bad contract in the trade. A Mets fan friend suggested this to me the other day:

The Mets get a righty hitting infielder to complement the lefty hitting Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil, and the Yankees get Starling Marte to address the outfield situation. The money matches up well. There’s roughly $50M remaining on Marte’s deal and $53M remaining on LeMahieu’s deal, though Marte is only signed through 2025. LeMahieu has the extra year and is signed through 2026.

I’m not endorsing a LeMahieu for Marte trade. Marte’s having a poor year himself (.256/.309/.336 and 83 wRC+) and his defense in particular has slipped significantly. This is just an example of the kind of trade the Yankees will have to make to unload LeMahieu. Either that, or they’ll have to eat a bunch of money and pay him to play elsewhere, like they’re doing with Aaron Hicks.

The Yankees love LeMahieu. They love his high contact bat (which hasn’t been as high contact this year), his versatility and his defense, his demeanor, everything about him. That said, they have to look at this objectively, and if there’s a way to unload LeMahieu and (part of) his contract to create a path to a younger and more athletic team, they must consider it. I’m not optimistic a trade will happen before the deadline. LeMahieu and his no-trade clause are likely here to stay.

Elizabeth asks: (In the July 10th post) you point out that the team is "old and unathletic," compared to the Orioles. Please share: when did you last describe the Yankees as young and athletic? (I'm really scared about the likely answer here.)

It wasn’t that long ago, right? They looked sprightly in the first half last season. Maybe they only look old and athletic because they’re not winning much. I could buy that.

I would say the last time the Yankees had what I’ll call youthful energy was 2019. They still had Didi Gregorius back then, Gleyber Torres had not yet regressed, and guys like Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman got a lot of playing time. If it’s not 2019, then it was 2018, when Aaron Hicks was still good and rookie Miguel Andújar was banging extra-base hits every night in addition to Sir Didi, Gleyber, Aaron Judge, peak Giancarlo Stanton, etc.

Paul asks: Shohei pitches in a 6-man rotation normally, right? Any idea what that would mean for the playoffs?

He does, yeah. We need to see the postseason schedule before I can give you a good answer. Last year’s postseason schedule was condensed because the regular season was a few days longer (because they had to make up games postponed by the lockout) and MLB didn’t want to push the World Series back into mid November, so there were fewer off-days. The Yankees and Guardians would have played Games 2-5 of the ALDS on four consecutive days if not for rainouts, and Games 3-7 of the ALCS would have been played on five consecutive days.

If they go back to a normal postseason schedule this year, meaning a 2-2-1 format for the LDS and a 2-3-2 format for the LCS, the postseason rotation with Shohei Ohtani could look like this, assuming he is the No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole and Cole starts every five days no questions asked:

Wild Card Series Game 1: Gerrit Cole
Wild Card Series Game 2: Shohei Ohtani
Wild Card Series Game 3: Carlos Rodón
off-day
LDS Game 1: No. 4 starter
LDS Game 2: Gerrit Cole (normal rest)
off-day
LDS Game 3: Shohei Ohtani (five days rest, normal rest for him)
LDS Game 4: Carlos Rodón (five days rest)
off-day
LDS Game 5: Gerrit Cole (normal rest)
off-day
LCS Game 1: No. 4 starter (seven days rest)
LCS Game 2: Shohei Ohtani (five days rest, normal rest for him)
off-day
LCS Game 3: Gerrit Cole (normal rest)
LCS Game 4: Carlos Rodón (seven days rest)
LCS Game 5: No. 4 starter (normal rest)
off-day
LCS Game 6: Shohei Ohtani (five days rest, normal rest for him)
LCS Game 7: Gerrit Cole (normal rest)
off-day
World Series Game 1: Carlos Rodón (five days rest)
World Series Game 2: No. 4 starter (five days rest)
off-day
World Series Game 3: Gerrit Cole (normal rest)
World Series Game 4: Shohei Ohtani (six days rest, one extra day for him)
World Series Game 5: Carlos Rodón (normal rest)
off-day
World Series Game 6: Gerrit Cole (three days rest)
World Series Game 7: Shohei Ohtani (four days rest, one day short rest for him)

That’s an extreme “every series goes the distance” scenario in which no one starts on short rest until Games 6-7 of the World Series, the ultimate must-win games. In that scenario, the Yankees would need to use their No. 4 starter (Nestor Cortes? Domingo Germán? Clarke Schmidt? Luis Severino?) four times, which is at least two more times than they’d like.

That’s a rough outline of what the postseason rotation could look like with Ohtani and his every sixth day schedule. We can dig in further and map this all out once the postseason schedule is announced and the Yankees actually have Ohtani.

Vinny asks: Any chance Sevy’s struggles could be pitch-clock related? Grasping at straws here.

Seems unlikely. Luis Severino was already a quick worker. He was in the top 27% of the league in pace last year. Severino went from 21.5 seconds between pitches within an at-bat last year to 18.6 seconds this year and that’s one of the smallest year-to-year decreases because he was already working quickly, and didn’t have to speed up much to be pitch clock compliant.

Maybe three fewer seconds is enough to completely derail Severino. I suppose it’s possible. It does seem unlikely though. Odds are this is a pitcher whose long arm injury history is catching up to him. Severino’s velocity has fluctuated and he’s not getting the same “rise” on his fastball as in the past. He just looks diminished. It sucks. Hopefully there’s an adjustment that can be made here, because I don’t think the pitch clock is to blame.

Brian asks: Since the current Yankees are unwatchably bad, I thought it would be more interesting to look back to the past. Who do you think was the best team from the 2010-2022 era?

2010. The 2017 team was the most fun team of that era, but I think 2010 was the best team. They had a legit chance to repeat, and while you can never be 100% sure, I think they would’ve at least gotten back to the World Series had they been able to complete the Cliff Lee trade. Instead, Lee went to the Rangers, and the Yankees had to face him in the ALCS instead of having him on their team. Groan.

Once you get beyond 2010, you get into the years when Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira began to decline and the Yankees were relying on Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in the rotation. The 2012 team was pretty good, the 2013-16 teams were not, then you get into the Aaron Judge era, when it’s seemed like the Yankees have been built just well enough to keep falling short.

That 2010 team needed another starter heading into the postseason, no doubt, but the offense was deep (five 120 OPS+ guys plus three others at 105 OPS+), CC Sabathia was in his prime, and that was the start of the “we know how to bullpens” era. Maybe Lee would’ve come in and ruined the mojo. Sure felt like that 2010 team was one Cliff Lee away from a title though.

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