July 10th, 2023: Lawson, Casey, Rodón, Stanton, Midseason Grades, Prospects

The All-Star break has arrived and not a moment too soon. I think we can all use a little break from our underperforming pinstripers. I finished today’s post (much) earlier than I anticipated, so I’m going to hit publish now rather than wait until Tuesday morning. Let’s get to it now that Gerrit Cole has been named the AL's All-Star Game starting pitcher, per Jon Heyman.

1. Lawson fired, Casey hired. Not long after Sunday’s loss to the Cubs, the Yankees announced primary hitting coach Dillon Lawson has been dismissed. The Yankees will hire Sean Casey to replace him, per Ken Rosenthal, and assistants Casey Dykes and Brad Wilkerson will remain. The team has not yet announced Casey, though Brian Cashman said Lawson's replacement would be an outside hire, not an internal promotion, and the new person would be in place for Friday’s second half opener.

“There's an opportunity here,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch. “I believe that we do have more than capable players to find higher ground than we found in the first half. I'm looking for a unique personality that will blend and connect with that group of players, as well as some of the players that I currently have on the injured list.”

This is the first in-season coaching change for the Yankees since Nardi Contreras replaced Billy Connors as pitching coach in July 1995, so it’s the first since Cashman took over as GM. Cashman said he broached the change with Hal Steinbrenner on Saturday, which suggests getting shut down by Jameson Taillon on Friday was the final straw, then they pulled the trigger following Sunday’s loss.

“I came up in an organization that made changes in-season constantly. It's not something I've gravitated to in my tenure as general manager,” Cashman told Hoch. “But, at the same time, when you feel like you have to do that, then you do it and you face it, full-bore.”

The Yankees just wrapped up one of the worst offensive first halves in franchise history. Their .231 AVG is the fourth lowest in a first half in Yankees history. Their .301 OBP is fifth lowest and their 94 OPS+ is ninth lowest. That’s out of 110 first halves (not counting the Highlanders years), so yeah, this offense has been historically dreadful. Dreadful enough that Lawson was scapegoated now rather than November.

Casey will be the Yankees' third primary hitting coach in three years and sixth in the last 10 years. That seems not great. The problem isn’t the hitting coach, not that Lawson was part of the solution. Lawson didn’t make the Yankees sit on their hands and not add a left fielder in the offseason. Miguel Andújar, Gary Sánchez, et al regressed before Lawson got the job. Remember the Judge and Giancarlo two-man army in 2021? The offense has been trending down for a while.

The problem is the players, first and foremost. They’re the guys failing in the batter’s box. Lawson wasn’t swinging the bat for them. The problem is also Cashman and everyone else charged with building the roster. It’s old and unathletic. Did you watch the Orioles series last week? It was night and day. The Yankees were two steps slow. Lawson was only a tiny little part of the problem.

“Even though I’m making a change, I put the roster together,” Cashman told Lou DiPietro. “We’ve had injuries and there are a lot of different reasons, so it’s not just the messenger in this situation. There’s a lot of stuff occurring real time you have to get through, but I have made the decision regardless we’ll be best served to have a different messenger going forward.”

I am a coach agnostic. They’re obviously important but we really have no idea who does what or who deserves blame or credit. The fact the Yankees took the rather extreme step of firing their hitting coach in-season is a pretty good indication they believed things were going really off the rails. Did players go to management and complain? That could’ve pushed Cashman into action.

As for Casey, the Yankees are once again hiring someone away from a TV network and putting him into a high profile job despite zero coaching experience. Maybe Casey will be the greatest hitting coach who ever lived. I have no idea. I just know having a good personality and sounding smart on television is way, way different than being a good coach.

Casey and Aaron Boone were teammates for several years with the Reds and Tim Naehring, Cashman’s top lieutenant, was in Cincinnati’s front office at the time, so the Yankees have insight into him personally. If nothing else, Casey is the polar opposite of Lawson, who never played in the big leagues and was a hardcore analytics guy. Casey played 12 years in the show and went to three All-Star Games.

I’m guessing the Casey hire is a “you’re the man for the rest of the season and we’ll see how it goes, then we'll make a more permanent decision in the offseason” situation. The in-season available hitting coach pool can't be very deep (Chili Davis? Dave Magadan?). I am completely unmoved by the hire. Whatever, man.

The Yankees will (probably) have a better offense in the second half because they’ll make trades and the veterans aren’t really this bad, and Casey will get all the credit. I don’t care. Just score runs. Give Randy Levine the credit for all I care. I think the Yankees need better players more than a new coach, but a new coach (probably) can’t hurt at this point. What do the Yankees have to lose?

Bottom line, the Yankees are getting desperate. You can’t fire players and Cashman’s not gonna fire himself, so you fire the hitting coach, and you don’t fire the hitting coach unless you’re underperforming and desperate to turn things around. I would say Boone should feel a little heat, though part of me is convinced he’s bulletproof, so I dunno. For the patient-to-a-fault Yankees to make an in-season coaching change, they must be freaking out upstairs.

“Since I've been here, we've had pretty consistently high levels of offensive production,” Cashman told Hoch. “This year has been a completely different story. Ultimately, the end results are not that Yankees DNA that we're used to seeing.”

2. Weekend thoughts. Friday night’s two-hit shutout loss combined with Toronto’s blowout win over the Tigers dropped the Yankees into fourth place in the AL East, and out of a postseason spot for the first time since May 12th. Friday’s loss was also the first time the Cubs won a game in the Bronx. Ever. Including the 1932 and 1938 World Series, the Cubs were 0-12 all-time in Yankee Stadium, old or new. History with an exclamation point. Here are a few thoughts on the final series before the All-Star break.

Rodón’s debut

Fittingly, a night that started with an excited crowd amped up to see the Yankees debut their big pitcher signing ended with the team being booed off the field as the offense they never bothered to upgrade got shut down again. By Jameson Taillon, no less. Taillon entered the game with a 6.93 ERA (5.17 FIP) on the season. This offense can fix any pitcher.

“I just needed an outing like this, period,” Taillon told Pete Caldera after Friday’s game. “I have a lot of love for those guys over there, so it’s not like I wanted to stick it to ‘em. This wasn’t like any sort of revenge game. But it does feel good on this stage in NYC to have a good night.”

As for Carlos Rodón, his Yankees debut was good overall though not quite dominant. Only two strikeouts out among 22 batters (9.1%) and eight whiffs on 35 swings (22.9%). The Cubs swung early in the count – 18 of those 22 batters swung at the first or second pitch – and I didn’t think Rodón located his slider well. Too many were too far outside the zone and easy takes.

Overall though, Rodón had his usual velocity and life on the fastball, and he got a steady diet of easy out fly balls. Cody Bellinger put a mistake fastball in the second deck, and there were a few deep fly balls to the wall, but that’s life when you’re a fly ball pitcher (35.6% ground balls from 2021-22). Rodón ran out of the gas at the end, which is to be expected given his pitch count.

“I was pretty impressed with the fastball, and the secondary stuff was there too,” Kyle Higashioka told Bryan Hoch. “I thought it was definitely a change of pace from the guys I normally catch. It’s kind of fun almost, doing something new. I thought he looked really good.”

All in all, it was a good but uneventful (in a good way) debut for Rodón, who’s going with the David Wells meets state trooper look:

Does chest hair count as hair below the lip? You’re pushing the envelope of the hair policy, Carlos. Anyway, I assume the whiffs and strikeouts will go up once Rodón locates his slider a little better and gets more innings under his belt, and rounds into form. This was essentially his fourth Spring Training start, remember. A fine debut, all things considered.

“It was nice to finally pitch in the pinstripes at Yankee Stadium,” Rodón told Hoch. “But (a loss) was not the way I wanted to start.”

Stanton goes long, then short

There are few things in this game I enjoy more than Giancarlo Stanton getting his pitch, laying into it, and hitting the everloving crap out of the ball. Back in April, Giancarlo hit a ball on top of the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar in center field. I had never seen that before. Prior to Saturday, I had never seen a ball hit off the facing of the upper deck in left field, then Stanton did it (video).

“I’ve never seen a ball go up there,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “To hit it 118 (mph) that high to the direct pull side, you can’t make that up. That’s as weird as it gets.”

Home runs down the line never seem to go as far as they look and yet Statcast measured that shot at 447 feet, which is long for any homer in any direction. Then, a few innings later Stanton hit one of the short-porchiest homers you’ll ever see (video). In one game he hit a titanic shot off the facing of the left field upper deck and a cheap homer off the bottom of the right field foul pole.

The second homer measured at 322 feet, the second shortest home run at Yankee Stadium in the Statcast era, and I’m not gonna lie, I was hoping it stood as a triple. Stanton hasn’t hit a triple since 2018 and he may never hit one again the way he runs. It’s gonna take a weird bounce or an outfielder(s) falling down for Giancarlo to hit a triple. Alas, this was a regular ol’ dinger.

“I saw it hit off the pole, but just keep running until they tag you out,” Stanton told Hoch about the second homer. (“Keep running until they tag out” feels like the Yankees’ credo at times, no?)

I don’t know how to verify this without checking every multi-homer game manually, but I gotta think the 125-foot difference between Stanton’s two homers is one of the largest single-game distance differentials. Also, according to Mike Petriello, Stanton had the tenth hardest hit homer (118.1 mph) and the softest hit homer (91.3 mph) of the Statcast era Saturday. The man contains multitudes. No further commentary here. Just a unique player hitting two unique homers in one game.

Franchy, not Florial

Last week I noted Estevan Florial was pulled from Triple-A Scranton’s game not long after Jake Bauers went for an MRI on his achy shoulder. Alas and alack, Florial did not get the call when Bauers went on the injured list. It was Franchy Cordero instead. Franchy went 1-for-3 over the weekend and started Friday night’s game.

“Flo has done a really nice job down there of putting together a really strong season. Certainly keeps pushing himself into the conversation anytime we do have a need,” Boone told Max Goodman when asked about passing over Florial for a call up. He added Cordero already being on the 40-man roster was a factor too (though apparently it wasn’t a factor when Bauers, Willie Calhoun, and Billy McKinney were called up).

Greg Allen is expected to start a rehab assignment either later this week or early next week, and his imminent return certainly factored into the decision. Cordero will be up for a few days and go right back down when Allen’s ready. Florial’s out of options and the Yankees would have to clear a 40-man spot only to put him on waivers when Allen’s ready. I get it.

As good as he’s been in Triple-A – he’s hitting .294/.389/.596 (138 wRC+) this year – I don’t have high hopes for Florial because he hasn’t improved his strikeout rate at all. He’s running a 28.7% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging strike rate this year, his third in Triple-A. Look at his contact rate heat map. Florial can turn on anything inside and that’s it. He can be beat up, down, and away.

More than anything, I’m just over the whole “infielders in the outfield” thing. Yankees left fielders rank 29th with -11 DRS and 26th with -5 OAA this year, and it’s not like they’ve done a whole lot at the plate either. Florial may not hit much (or at all), but he’ll at least catch the ball. At least Allen should be back soon. Left field is such a (predictable) mess, man.

Miscellany

Cody Bellinger had a nice weekend in the Bronx, going 3-for-10 with the home run against Rodón (video) and a nice sliding catch Saturday (video). Predictably, a bunch of “the Yankees need to trade for Bellinger!” takes immediately popped up. Reminds me of Jeff Samardzija in 2014. He threw seven shutout innings against the Yankees a few weeks before the trade deadline and everyone wanted him. Bellinger is worth a deeper dive before the deadline, though I’m a bit uneasy about a guy who’s had three good (nonconsecutive) months in the last three years and has underwhelming ball-tracking data:

There is more to life to Statcast profiles, but still, the contact quality doesn’t match the .298/.355/.491 (126 wRC+) slash line. Bellinger makes me squeamish in a Joey Gallo kinda way. Like I said though, a deeper dive is required … Gleyber Torres’ error was obviously terrible, but I can’t get over how bad Boone’s bullpen management was Sunday. He went to Ian Hamilton, then asked Tommy Kahnle to bail him out. The next inning he went to Ron Marinaccio, then asked Clay Holmes to bail him out. Twice he went to one of his B relievers and had to use an A reliever to try to clean up a bases loaded mess. Just go to the good reliever first! Again, Gleyber’s error was awful and inexcusable, but four of the next six batters reached after that. At some point the blame shifts to the pitchers and manager … And finally, teams get a little creative with their pitchers around the All-Star break and Domingo Germán was available out of the bullpen (on normal rest) Saturday. If he was needed, Clarke Schmidt would have started Sunday (on normal rest). Germán wasn’t needed Saturday, so he started Sunday and pitched well, and Schmidt got two outs out of the bullpen, in part to avoid going so long between game action. The Yankees have tentatively announced Rodón, Schmidt, and Gerrit Cole will start the first three games out of the break. They’re pushing Luis Severino back as much as possible. Can’t say I blame them. The Yankees open the second half in Coors Field. Good time to have a rested bullpen coming out of the break.

3. 2023 midseason grades. At 49-42 (.522), the Yankees are on pace to win 87 games, and they are a game behind the third Wild Card spot and a game up on last place in the AL East at the All-Star break. Here are a few more numbers on the 2023 Yankees to date:

• Runs scored per game: 4.40 (19th in MLB)
• Runs allowed per game: 4.18 (9th)
• AVG: .231 (29th)
• OBP: .301 (26th)
• SLG: .410 (13th)
• wRC+: 96 (21st)
• ERA: 3.80 (7th)
• ERA+: 111 (4th)
• FIP: 4.22 (17th)
• DRS: +14 (13th)
• OAA: +6 (12th)
• SP WAR: +4.5 (21st)
• RP WAR: +3.0 (9th)
• Position player WAR: +9.6 (18th)

The Yankees are 84-78 in their last 162 games, postseason included, and they are 14-5 in Gerrit Cole starts this year. They’re 35-37 when anyone else starts, and they have a +34 run differential against the intentionally bad Athletics and a -14 run differential against everyone else. Through the first half of the season, they have been mediocrity defined.

“It’s been a grind of a first half for us,” Aaron Boone said Sunday (video). “I love the grit of this group though. As tough as it’s been with some of the adversity we’ve faced, the reality is we’re in position to achieve our goals heading into the second half. It’s all right there for us. It’s on us to get it done.”

As promised last week, I am here to hand out midseason grades for each and every member of the 2023 Yankees. I don’t do letter grades often because what am I grading them against? Their performance in a vacuum? Their performance relative to expectations? Something else entirely? I guess the answer is: all of the above. It’s baseball. We don’t have to take these grades too seriously.

With that in mind, here are my midseason letter grades for the 2023 Yankees. The players are listed alphabetically within each grade tier.

Incomplete

I’ve always felt “incomplete” is the coward’s way out, but sometimes it’s the only answer. These are the players with only a few games or a few innings in pinstripes this season.

OF Greg Allen: Like a true Yankee, Allen got injured almost immediately after being acquired. He came over in a minor deal with the Red Sox on May 20th and hurt his hip on June 2nd. Allen is expected to begin a rehab assignment later this week or early next week. He went 3-for-14 (.214) with a triple, a homer, and a stolen base during his short time on the active roster.

RHRP Colten Brewer: The Yankees picked up Brewer following their Opening Day win, after he opted out of his minor league deal with the Rays. He spent two weeks with the Yankees and allowed four runs in 8.1 innings spanning three appearances (all four runs came in his last outing). Most notably, Brewer chucked three scoreless innings in a tie game in Cleveland on April 10th and gave the Yankees a chance to win the game (though they ultimately lost). He was dropped from the roster and sent to Triple-A soon thereafter, and the Yankees released him earlier this week so he could pursue an opportunity in Japan.

OF Estevan Florial: Florial was on the Opening Day roster, you may recall. He pinch-ran for Giancarlo Stanton and replaced him defensively in the eighth inning of the season opening win, then was designated for assignment the next day to clear a roster spot for Brewer. Florial cleared waivers and is hitting .294/.389/.596 (138 wRC+) with 21 homers in Triple-A Scranton.

RHRP Deivi García: Once the top pitching prospect in the organization, Deivi is an afterthought now, though he did return to the big leagues this year for the first time since May 2021. He picked up a three-inning save in a blowout win against the Athletics on May 10th, and threw 2.2 scoreless innings in the blowout loss against the Orioles last Thursday. García has a 4.93 ERA (6.30 FIP) with 21.1% strikeouts and 16.1% walks in 34.2 Triple-A innings in his new multi-inning reliever role. Eh.

LHRP Matt Krook: The 28-year-old Krook finally achieved his lifelong dream of reaching the big leagues on May 27th, and then he didn’t pitch. Six days on the active roster and no appearances the first time around. Krook eventually came back and made his debut at Fenway Park, entering with runners on second and third and no outs. The defense kicked the ball around and he gave up a grand slam to Justin Turner. Krook’s line in two MLB games: 4 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 1 K. He’s been nails in Triple-A though (1.17 ERA and 2.45 FIP with 42.1% strikeouts).

RHRP Jonathan Loáisiga: Loáisiga really only appeared in three games before getting hurt, huh? He got hurt earlier than I realized. Loaisiga allowed one run in three innings, then was placed on the injured list with what was initially called elbow inflammation on April 8th. He later had surgery to remove a bone spur. Loáisiga threw a light 10-pitch bullpen session Sunday, his first since surgery. The Yankees said they expect him back in August at the earliest..

IF Oswald Peraza: Called up when Stanton hurt his hamstring on April 16th, Peraza spent 24 days on the active roster before hurting his ankle stumbling into second base. He should have played more while he was up, particularly with Josh Donaldson injured, but to be fair, Peraza didn’t exactly force the issue. He went 6-for-32 (.188) with the Yankees. He’s hitting .267/.354/.506 (111 wRC+) in Triple-A. I have no idea what the Yankees are doing with him or plan to do with him.

LHSP Carlos Rodón: Rodón finally made his Yankees debut Friday and it was fine: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR while on a pitch count. He is the one player among the incompletes the Yankees absolutely need to stay healthy and be productive to make any sorta noise in the second half and into the postseason.

C Ben Rortvedt: He exists! Rortvedt made his long-awaited Yankees debut after Jose Trevino went down with a hamstring injury in May. He spent 12 days with the big league team and went 2-for-7 with a double in five games (three starts). That double is the only double by Yankees catchers this season. Okay, that’s not true, but you believed it for a second.

RHSP Randy Vásquez: Rotation depth was a question coming into the season, particularly once guys started getting hurt in Spring Training, and the Yankees probably had to go to Vásquez earlier than they would have liked. No matter, he’s turned in three very good spot starts, including two against strong Padres and Orioles lineups. Two runs allowed (on a Juan Soto homer) in 15.1 innings is just swell, thank you, even if the 10/7 K/BB is a bit unsightly.

RHRP Ryan Weber: Webdog was damn good during his month with the Yankees. He pitched to a 3.14 (4.55 FIP) in 14.1 innings across eight appearances, including throwing 2.1 scoreless innings in a tie game in Toronto on May 16th (which the Yankees won late) and nailing down a save in extra innings in Cincinnati on May 20th. Weber went on the injured list with a tear in his elbow ligament in early June. He’s trying to rehab the injury and avoid Tommy John surgery, and, even if the rehab is successful, Weber will be out a while. Likely the rest of the season. *salute emoji*

RHRP Greg Weissert: Weissert has allowed three runs and 13 baserunners in 6.2 innings spanning in three brief big league stints this season. Not much more to say than that. He’s been good in Triple-A (3.08 ERA and 3.43 FIP with 35.7% strikeouts).

F

The worst performers. The guys who should feel bad about themselves and apologize to me personally for having to watch them play this season.

UTIL Oswaldo Cabrera: Look, if you would have told me in Spring Training that Cabrera would struggle and get demoted to Triple-A, I would’ve believed it. That was not an outlandish outcome. I would not have expected Cabrera to be one of the worst players in baseball though. There are 280 players with at least 180 plate appearances this season. Cabrera’s ranks:

• AVG: .204 (268th)
• OBP: .259 (276th)
• SLG: .309 (264th)
• wRC+: 56 (274th)

Yuck. The Yankees sent Cabrera to the minors twice and both times they called him right back up because of an injury (he’s played two games in Triple-A this year). Including Triple-A, Oswaldo has 43 plate appearances in the last 44 days. To be clear, he hasn’t earned more playing time, but maybe let him go to Triple-A and get regular at-bats while someone else grows roots on the bench?

RHRP Jimmy Cordero: Cordero was effective when he was on the field, which he will not be the rest of the season after accepting a suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy last week.

OF Franchy Cordero: Give Franchy props, he hit a few clutch home runs in April, at a time when the Yankees were desperate for offense (granted, they’ve been desperate for offense the entire season). To recap:

• April 7th at Orioles: 3-run homer with the Yankees down 4-0 in the fourth
• April 9th at Orioles: 2-run homer with the Yankees up 2-0 in the fifth
• April 11th at Guardians: 3-run homer with the Yankees up 3-2 in the third
• April 12th at Guardians: Solo homer with the Yankees down 3-2 in the seventh

Cordero slipped into a bad funk after that, going 1-for-29 (.035) with 14 strikeouts in his final 12 games before being sent to Triple-A. He returned this past weekend and has a .158/.186/.386 (50 wRC+) line in 59 plate appearances with the Yankees and a .345/.462/.621 (170 wRC+) line with the RailRiders.

3B Josh Donaldson: The Yankees are 2-7 when Donaldson hits a home run and he is 5-for-89 (.056) in at-bats that do not end in a homer (the MLB average is .221 in non-homer at-bats). On Saturday Donaldson became the first player ever to hit 10 home runs within his first 14 hits of the season, which would be cool if he hit that tenth homer on April 8th and not July 8th.

Donaldson still plays the hell out of the hot corner, but he also spent two months on the injured list, and .232 would be a bad batting average. It is Donaldson’s on-base percentage. I don’t think I have ever disliked a player more. Donaldson could hit .500 the rest of the season and I would still want a livestream of him packing up his locker when he’s finally gone.

OF Aaron Hicks: It's sorta remarkable Hicks began this season with the Yankees after last year. He spent 39 games on the active roster, started 20 of them, and hit .188/.263/.261 (49 wRC+) in 76 plate appearances. That includes going 1-for-20 (.050) with eight strikeouts at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees finally cut bait on May 20th and ate the $27M or so remaining on Hicks’ contract. It should have happened in the offseason, when there were way more options to replace him, but better late than never.

IF DJ LeMahieu: Remember when LeMahieu was hitting .276/.347/.455 (124 wRC+) on May 14th, and looked like he was back? Like back back? That was fun. He’s hitting .168/.226/.266 (32 wRC+) since then and looks old, slow, and too often overmatched by fastballs. Yikes, man:

LeMahieu’s defense is still quite good, particularly at third base, though a .220/.285/.357 (78 wRC+) season slash line is just about the worst case scenario. The Yankees stretched LeMahieu’s four-year contract out over six years for luxury tax purposes, and can now look forward to having him on the books through 2026 rather than knowing they’ll be gone after next year. Hard to overstate just how harmful the various luxury tax plans have been to the on-field product.

RHSP Luis Severino: What a bummer. What a disaster. Severino looked so good in his first two starts off the injured list and has been so bad in the seven starts since. Maybe that pitch to the backstop against the Padres really was a sign something’s up? Either way, Severino is not a Major League pitcher right now. He has already allowed more runs this season (40 in 42.2 innings) than he did all last season (37 in 102 innings), and opponents are hitting .315/.383/.560 against him. Severino has turned every batter he’s faced into roughly Freddie Freeman this year (.320/.396/.556).

DH Giancarlo Stanton: A DH that doesn’t H gets an F. A .203/.276/.426 (90 wRC+) line – that includes Saturday’s two-homer game – from a bat-only player is awful, then you can add nearly two months on the injured list with a hamstring injury on top of it. The names in this F category are among the biggest reasons the Yankees are outside the postseason bracket looking in at the All-Star break.

D

Congrats on being bad, but not so bad that you got an F. This group is smaller than I expected only because there were more Fs than I expected, so, yay?

LHSP Nestor Cortes: As much as I love the guy, Nasty Nestor entered the season as a regression candidate because last year’s .232 BABIP and 0.91 HR/9 (8.2 HR/FB%) are the kinda things that usually don’t get repeated, particularly when that home run rate is paired with a 33.5% ground ball rate in Yankee Stadium. The regression monster came:

• BABIP: .298 (up .066 from 2022, third largest increase in MLB)
• HR/9: 1.52 (up 0.61 from 2022, 14th largest increase in MLB)
• HR/FB%: 10.3 (up 2.1 from 2022, 26th largest increase in MLB)

Those increases are among the 202 pitchers with at least 100 innings last year and 50 innings this year. Cortes allowed two runs or fewer in six of his 11 starts, so he wasn’t getting blasted every time out like Severino, but there have definitely been more bumps in the road this season. Nestor was hampered by a hamstring injury in Spring Training and he’s been on the injured list over a month now with a shoulder issue, and he’s not eligible to come off the 60-day injured list until Aug. 3rd. Maybe his 5.16 ERA (4.60 FIP) in 59.1 innings is F worthy?

1B Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo’s recent awfulness seems to be flying under the radar. Donaldson, LeMahieu, and Stanton are getting most of the grief (understandably) and Rizzo’s just kinda skating by. Here are a few numbers on Rizzo:

• 2023 overall: .257/.348/.405 (114 wRC+)
• Since May 20th (his last home run): .199/.301/.243 (59 wRC+)
• Since May 28th (Fernando Tatis Jr. collision): .168/.299/.215 (54 wRC+)
• Since June 3rd (Aaron Judge’s injury): .175/.309/.223 (60 wRC+)

Tim Anderson, Esteury Ruiz, and Myles Straw are the only players with zero homers and more plate appearances than Rizzo since May 20th. I mean, a .215 SLG since May 28th? Really? Rizzo was so good earlier this season that his overall line is still respectable, though the 114 wRC+ ranks him 13th among full-time first baseman. Middle of the pack. At a time when the Yankees needed Rizzo to really step up and lead the way, he’s wilting.

C

The 2023 Yankees as a team deserve a C. They’re not bad, but they don’t seem to be very good either, and they’ve fallen short of expectations so far. Here are the guys doing just enough at doing just enough.

RHRP Albert Abreu: Abreu somehow did not wind up on the injured list despite grimacing and shaking out his arm, then immediately losing 3-4 mph off his fastball last Thursday. That six-run, two-out outing really put a damper on his season numbers (4.46 ERA and 4.66 FIP). He entered that game with a 3.11 ERA (4.03 FIP) in 37.1 innings. That is perfectly fine for the seventh or eighth guy in the bullpen. Abreu isn’t great but he’s definitely overhated, especially relative to his role.

1B/OF Jake Bauers: The Yankees have summoned every corner outfield lefty bat they signed to a minor league deal over the winter and Bauers has been the best of the bunch, both in terms of his actual output (.224/.312/.470 and 114 wRC+) and also the quality of his at-bats. His outfield defense is an adventure – Bauers seems to either make a spectacular play for flub something routine – but he battles in the box and there’s legit juice in his bat. Bauers has a case for a B, though I’m not willing to go that far. Seems like there’s a place for him on the bench as a platoon bat even in an alternate universe where the Yankees are 100% healthy.

RHSP Jhony Brito: Brito was the No. 5 starter the first two months of the season and he handled himself well. The 4.70 ERA (5.28 FIP) and 4.28 innings per start aren’t great, though that seven-run, two-out disaster against the Twins on April 13th skews things. Outside that, Brito has a 3.53 ERA (4.88 FIP) and is averaging 4.64 innings per start. Still not amazing, but better, and more representative of how Brito has pitched. The April 13th game counts, absolutely. It’s not like Brito got blasted every fifth day though. Getting C work from essentially your No. 8 starter, a kid who only reached Triple-A for the first time last June, is a good outcome.

DH Willie Calhoun: Calhoun falls into the “better than expected but still not very good” category that is difficult to grade. A .239/.309/.403 (96 wRC+) line, including .245/.324/.432 (108 wRC+) against righties, isn’t great for a DH and emergency corner outfielder. Calhoun did get a few important hits earlier this season, and like I said he’s been better than expected. I just have a hard time going higher than a C here. He’s been fine. Nothing more, nothing less.

RHSP Domingo Germán: It’s been a typical Germán season, no? There have been moments of greatness (a perfect game!), moments of awfulness (10 runs and four homers in the start before the perfect game), and moments of dumbassery (sticky stuff suspension after being warned earlier in the season). Germán’s numbers always seem to wind up in the same place, don’t they?

• 2018-22: 4.42 ERA (4.50 FIP)
• 2023: 4.32 ERA (4.62 FIP)

I thought about bumping Germán up to a B following Sunday’s game, but I don’t want to be a prisoner of the moment. A 4.32 ERA (4.62 FIP) is textbook C stuff. Germán’s been mostly good with a few duds along the way.

C Kyle Higashioka and C Jose Trevino: I’m combining these two because, for all intents and purposes, they are one and the same. Trevino has a slight edge in playing time but it's been close to a 50/50 split since Trevino returned from his hamstring injury on May 30th. Offensively, Yankees catchers have been dreadful. Defensively, they’ve been great:

• AVG: .220 (22nd among the 30 teams)
• OBP: .268 (27th)
• SLG: .353 (22nd)
• wRC: 71 (25th)
• FanGraphs framing: +13.9 (2nd)
• Statcast framing: +8 (2nd)
• DRS: +7 (4th)
• Caught stealing rate: 23% (12th)

The defense, other than the caught stealing rate, is A worthy, and I suspect the unquantifiable “work with pitchers” portion of the job is A worthy as well. The offense is F worthy, even by catcher standards, particularly Trevino (.211/.255/.316 and 57 wRC+). Every game the Yankees have to use three roster spots at catcher: the starter, the guy who pinch-hits for him, and then the backup who has to take over behind the plate.

Average out the A defense and F offense and you get a C. Probably closer to a C+ since they’re “only” the fifth worst hitting catcher tandem in the game. On the list of things wrong with the Yankees, catcher is not top five, but it might be No. 6. Punting offense behind the plate is tougher to swallow when the rest of the lineup no-shows twice a series.

RHRP Ron Marinaccio: Kind of a weird year for Marinaccio. The 3.60 ERA (3.66 FIP) and 27.5% strikeout rate are solid, though it feels like he’s been worse than that. I think it’s this:

• Walk rate: 12.9%
• Inherited runners: 8 of 30 scored (27%)
• Meltdowns: 12

Meltdowns are relief appearances that decrease the team’s win probability at least 6% and Marinaccio’s 12 are tied for the most in baseball. Boone has brought Marinaccio in with runners on base in 20 of his 38 appearances. The manager’s gotta know better. Marinaccio’s been fine overall. Couple great outings, couple bad outings, mostly fine outings. Firm C.

OF Billy McKinney: Did you know it wasn’t until Sunday that McKinney passed Hicks in plate appearances (as a Yankee) this year? Feels like he’s been around for months but it really hasn’t been that long. Anyway, similar to Franchy, McKinney has hit some important dingers:

• June 8th vs. White Sox: Solo homer with Yankees up 2-0 in the fifth
• June 20th vs Mariners: Solo homer with Yankees up 1-0 in the second
• June 21st vs. Mariners: Solo homer with Yankees up 2-0 in the fourth
• June 24th vs. Rangers: Solo homer with score tied 0-0 in the fourth

McKinney is the anti-Donaldson. The Yankees have won every game he’s homered in, including a 1-0 win in that June 24th game. Alas and alack, McKinney has come back to Earth the last few weeks, and is 2-for-25 (.080) with nine strikeouts in his last 10 games. He has a .240/.269/.467 (99 wRC+) line overall and it feels like he’s been better than that, but the stats don’t lie. For a journeyman who was third in line for an injury call up, a C is pretty good.

LHRP Wandy Peralta: Magic Wandy’s 2.62 ERA is deceptive. He’s had a hard time finding the strike zone all year (38.7% zone rate, second lowest among the 338 pitchers with at least 30 innings), especially against righties (14 walks and 13 strikeouts). Even against lefties, Peralta has seven walks and four hit batters in 15.1 innings. Wandy is a ground ball monster (64.4%) and he’s gutsy as hell. Still way too many free baserunners. He hasn’t been as automatic as the last two years.

LHRP Nick Ramirez: Yet another Yankees bullpen find. Ramirez added a slider while in Triple-A with the Mariners last year and the Yankees helped him refine it, and he’s forced the Yankees to keep him around the last few weeks after opening the season as a shuttle guy. I can’t go higher than a C right now because Ramirez had a few tough outings within the last week, and also because he’s been sneaky bad against lefties (.324/.390/.486 and .379 wOBA).

RHSP Clarke Schmidt: Getting into C territory at the All-Star break is fine work by Schmidt. I’m not being a smart ass. He was terrible to start the season and he’s really turned things around the last few weeks, so much so that he’s probably the Yankees’ second best starter right now (pending more innings from Rodón). The before and after:

Perhaps I should have nudged Schmidt into B territory. His season is split right down the middle in terms of good and bad though, so I think a C is appropriate. Schmidt is definitely trending in the right direction (he’s one of the very few Yankees trending in the right direction). He’s been really good the last few weeks.

2B Gleyber Torres: Remember when Torres went 8-for-19 (.421) with two homers and five steals on that first homestand? Good times. He’s hitting .240/.306/.391 (94 wRC+) and is 3-for-7 stealing bases since that first homestand, and is hitting .223/.293/.364 (84 wRC+) since June 1st. Gleyber’s .251/.324/.413 (107 wRC+) line this year is almost identical to his .256/.324/.406 (106 wRC+) line from 2020-22. He’s yet another young Yankee who came up, had immediate success, then stagnated. Gleyber has been better than the other veterans dragging the offense down, though that’s not exactly high praise.

SS Anthony Volpe: A rookie season with high peaks and deep valleys. Volpe had a great Spring Training and started the season well enough, then he slipped into a deep funk that really should have landed him in Triple-A. A chat over chicken parm with Austin Wells led to a few adjustments at the plate, and Volpe finished the first half well.

The thing is, Volpe has not been good overall. That post-chicken parm sprint to the All-Star break got him to .216/.287/.395 (89 wRC+). Volpe is a rookie who essentially skipped over Triple-A and needs time to adjust, sure, but that line is objectively bad. This is his age 22 season. There are 11 players this year with 200 plate appearances in their age 22 or younger seasons. Volpe’s ranks:

• AVG: .216 (11th)
• OBP: .287 (11th)
• SLG: .395 (11th)
• OPS+: 88 (10th)

Relative to his peers, Volpe has been bad. I wish it weren’t true, but it is. There’s “rookie learning the ropes” and then there’s this. The defense has been fine and the baserunning very good, at least when Volpe gets on base enough to steal. Hopefully the strong finish to the first half means Volpe has indeed Figured It Out and is on his way to being a productive member of a contending team. For now, I can’t go any higher than a C, and I think the case for a D is much stronger than the case for a B.

B

Now we’re getting into the players who are having legitimately good seasons. You will not be surprised to learn more than half of them are relievers.

CF Harrison Bader: Probably the most difficult player to grade. Bader has only played 43 of 91 games because of oblique and hamstring injuries, and the .286 OBP is an eyesore, though his defense is out of this world and the power-heavy .256/.286/.461 (102 wRC+) line is solid enough. His numbers against righties are poor (.222/.248/.325 and 56 wRC+) but are trending up.

In a perfect world, Bader is the sixth or seventh best hitter on a good team. It’s not his fault he’s the second or third best hitter on his current team. I went back and forth between a B and C here because of all the missed time. The best ability is availability and Bader’s never had much of it. I think the on-field impact, which seems to transcend the stats, is enough to nudge Bader up into a B.

RHRP Ian Hamilton: The annual “where did this guy come from?” bullpen find. Hamilton and his slambio were excellent and earned a spot in the Circle of Trust™ before a groin injury sent him to the injured late May. He’s been shaky since returning (five runs in five innings), and hopefully that’s just him shaking off the rust. Hamilton’s been really good overall. The injury and recent ineffectiveness knock him down to a B, and a B is a major win for a non-roster reliever.

RHRP Tommy Kahnle: I came into this exercise figuring Kahnle would be in the incomplete group given how much time he missed with the biceps injury, but he’s already appeared in 16 games and thrown 15.1 innings. That’s a pretty good workload. Sunday was Kahnle’s first slip up, otherwise it’s been vintage Tommy Tightpants. It’s A performance and D availability. That averages out to like a C+. Kahnle rules so I’m gonna round up and give him a B.

UTIL Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Did you know Kiner-Falefa is hitting .304/.389/.496 (133 wRC) in his last 126 plate appearances? That dates back to when he tweaked his stance in May. The overall .255/.303/.380 (90 wRC+) line is good for a utility guy. His defense in the outfield has been solid despite several misplays, which I put that on the Yankees more than Kiner-Falefa. He’s trying his best and he’s only out there because the Yankees didn’t address their outfield needs over the winter. Nice year for Kiner-Falefa. I hope you’re ready for the “should the Yankees re-sign IKF?” discourse in a few months.

RHRP Mike King: This definitely isn’t pre-elbow fracture Mike King. That guy was as dominant as any reliever in the game. Post-elbow fracture Mike King has been very good more than elite and hey, nothing wrong with that. Just for comparison, the opponents' batting lines:

• 2022: .192/.256/.291 (.241 wOBA) with 33.2 K% and 8.0 BB% (199 BF)
• 2023: .210/.285/.326 (.274 wOBA) with 25.4 K% and 7.5 BB% (201 BF)

I can’t go with an A because there have been more blowups than we’d like, but there’s no shame in a B. King owns a 2.77 ERA (3.16 FIP) and is averaging five outs per appearance. That’s a great bullpen weapon and just short of A status. Call it B+.

A

The highest honor and a mark only few players, particularly 2023 Yankees, deserve.

RHSP Gerrit Cole: The easiest grade of the midseason. Cole has been the epitome of an ace this year – the Yankees are 8-0 when Cole starts following a loss and he has a 2.13 ERA in those games while averaging 6.33 innings per start – and he ranks among the league leaders in basically everything. Here’s where he ranks among all starters:

• Innings: 117 (5th in MLB)
• Batters faced: 476 (8th)
• ERA: 2.85 (7th)
• ERA+: 148 (10th)
• FIP: .343 (17th)
• Strikeout rate: 25.8% (22nd)
• Walk rate: 7.1% (33rd)
• HR/9: 0.85 (13th)
• WAR: +3.8 (1st)

Cole has reined in last year’s home run trouble and he’s having his best season as a Yankee, including the 60-game pandemic season. I’m not sure he’d win the AL Cy Young if the season ended today, but he would get a ton of support, and I can’t imagine he would finish lower than third in the voting. Cole’s been great. An easy, indisputable A.

RHRP Clay Holmes: There was a stretch early in the season when it appeared the Yankees had a Holmes problem. He couldn’t throw strikes or keep runs off the board. Everything changed in early May. Without giving specifics, Holmes told Bob Klapisch he made a minor adjustment when the Yankees were in Tampa from May 6-8, and it has turned his season around.

Since that Rays series Holmes has been a monster: 0.68 ERA (1.76 FIP) with 35.0% strikeouts and 63.6% ground balls. That’s two runs allowed and a .148/.230/.171 opponents’ batting line in 26.1 innings. Holmes has faced 148 batters this year and 97 have either struck out or hit a ground ball, or 65.5%. Here is the strikeout plus ground ball leaderboard (min. 140 batters faced):

1. Ryan Pressly: 70.0%
2. Yennier Cano: 69.2%
3. Logan Webb: 66.7%
4. Jason Foley: 66.0% (should’ve traded for him last summer!)
5. Clay Holmes: 65.5%

Since that adjustment in Tampa, Holmes is back to being Terminator Holmes as a high strikeout and high ground ball late-inning dominator. These last two months he’s been as good as he’s been at any point as a Yankee. Perhaps those first few weeks should knock him down to a B. The thing is, Holmes was still pretty good those few weeks, with just a few more walks and a few ground balls with eyes hurting him. I think he’s worthy of an A.

OF Aaron Judge: Judge has played in 49 of the Yankees’ 91 games this season and he ranks fifth on the team with 213 plate appearances. Despite that, he still leads the Yankees in home runs (19, six more than anyone else!), RBI (40), win probability added (+2.73, two wins more than anyone else), and position player WAR (+2.3). Judge has been that good and the rest of the team that bad. He hit .291/.404/.674 (188 wRC+) in those 49 games and was basically repeating last season when he crashed into the Dodger Stadium wall.

I seriously considered dropping Judge down into B territory because, well, he’s only played 49 games, and being on the field matters. The injuries may have been fluky and the result of playing too hard (the hip on the slide in Minnesota and the toe crashing into the Dodger Stadium wall), but other players do those things without missing chunks of time. I’m not blaming Judge for his injuries. Not at all. They’re just the reality of his season.

Ultimately, I gave Judge an A because he was so good when he was on the field. It wasn’t until last week that he slipped out of the top 10 in championship probability added all among position players! He was that impactful when he played. To get an A while missing 46% of the season, you better be extraordinary in the 54% you did play, and Judge was.

4. Prospect thoughts. The draft started Sunday night and the Yankees used their first round pick on Florida HS SS George Lombard Jr. (my profile). I’m planning a full draft recap later this week, but here’s my quick analysis of the Lombard pick: taking a player I previously wrote up saves me work, therefore it is a good pick. Nicely done, Yankees. Here now are a few other prospect thoughts.

Jones and Beeter in the Futures Game

To little fanfare, the Futures Game was played Saturday night, and it was fairly uneventful for the Yankees. OF Spencer Jones took over in center field in the fourth inning and wasn’t tested with anything difficult defensively. He went 0-1 with a three-pitch strikeout against Braves RHP Spencer Schwellenbach and five-pitch walk against Mets RHP Mike Vasil. Yawn.

As for RHP Clayton Beeter, he faced two batters in the seventh inning. He got Padres SS Jackson Merrill to ground out to short and struck out Brewers OF Jackson Chourio on six pitches (video). They have to squeeze nine pitchers into a seven-inning game, hence only two batters faced. Not much else to note here. The NL won 5-0 and here’s the box score.

“I know every time my name gets mentioned, so does Joey Gallo’s,” Beeter told David Lennon in Seattle. “It’s cool, but at the same time, I want people to know who I am, too.”

Pereira promoted to Triple-A

Last week the Yankees moved OF Everson Pereira up to Triple-A Scranton and he socked a three-run homer in his first at-bat as a RailRider (video). Through five Triple-A games Pereira is 9-for-17 (.529) with a double and the homer. He’s put 14 balls in play with Scranton. The good: 93.1 mph average exit velocity, including a 114.8 mph line out. The bad: 64.3% ground balls.

The home run was cool though I would not read anything into Pereira’s Triple-A numbers yet. Not into his slash line, his exit velocity, his ground ball rate, nothing. He’s played five games with the RailRiders. It’s one series! We’ll check back in a few weeks and see where he’s at. I just wanted to note Pereira, my No. 5 prospect, is one step closer to the big leagues. (He hit .291/.362/.545 and 143 wRC+ in 46 Double-A games this year before being promoted.)

(The corresponding move for Pereira being promoted was OF Elijah Dunham being demoted to Double-A Somerset. Dunham hit .216/.330/.340 (72 wRC+) with a 28.7% strikeout rate with the RailRiders. The gap between Double-A and Triple-A is mighty big for some.)

Arias tearing up the FCL

SS Roderick Arias, the Yankees’ top 2022 international signing, is having a nice season in the rookie Florida Complex League: .277/.413/.542 (142 wRC+) with six homers and nearly as many walks (18.3%) as strikeouts (20.2%) in 104 plate appearances. Rod-A is fourth in the league in homers* and two of the guys ahead of him are a 23-year-old and a 24-year-old. Literal men among boys in the FCL.

* Arias is a switch-hitter and he’s hit all six home runs as a lefty, though he only has nine plate appearances as a righty, so yeah.

Arias, who will turn only 19 in September, hit .194/.379/.370 (113 wRC+) with an ugly 32.9% strikeout rate in the Dominican Summer League last year, though he missed the start of the season with a hand/wrist injury, and it’s reasonable to think he wasn’t 100% healthy when he did play. He seems healthy now and is putting up numbers, including taking Alek Manoah deep.

The strikeout rate improvement and the power is the headliner here. I wouldn’t get too excited about the walk rate. It’s rookie ball and I could probably run a 10% walk rate just by standing in the box and keeping the bat on my shoulders. The FCL average is a 23.0% strikeout rate. Arias is below that and he’s putting the ball over the fence. Very nice stateside debut for the young man. This is what you want a $4M prospect to do in rookie ball.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)