July 7th, 2023: Cordero, Orioles, Vásquez, Donaldson, 2023 Draft, Mailbag

The draft begins Sunday night and the All-Star break is next week. Letter grades usually aren’t my thing but I have the itch to hand out midseason grades for some reason, so I might as well scratch it. This is what I’m thinking next week:

• Tuesday: Midseason grades plus whatever else
• Wednesday or Thursday: Draft recap (here’s last year’s)
• Friday: Mailbag plus whatever else

Now that I’ve committed to midseason letter grades, I look forward to being mad at myself when I sit down to write them. That’s a problem for Monday Mike though. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post as the word “surgery” enters the Aaron Judge toe injury lexicon. Groan.

2. Weekday thoughts. Only three more games until the All-Star break. Thank goodness. I think I need a little break from the Yankees. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games now that we’re only hours away from Carlos Rodón’s long-awaited Yankees debut.

Split with the O’s

After the Yankees won the first two games of the Orioles series, you couldn’t help but get greedy and think about winning three of four, or maybe even a sweep. Instead, the Yankees settled for a split, which is so perfectly 2017-23 Yankees. They get your hopes up and then don’t finish the job. This team specializes in letdowns.

“Tonight’s just a bad night for us. No fun to go through,” Aaron Boone said after Thursday’s loss (video). “... Tonight’s a frustrating night obviously. No one likes getting beat over the head, but it’s also part of it. These are also things that harden you in the arena too. You’ve got to move on from it, and we’ve got a big series now into the break.”

It’s a bummer to see Luis Severino so diminished. He has no business being in the rotation right now, though Nestor Cortes is still weeks away from returning, so the only alternatives are Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez. A 7.38 ERA (6.38 FIP) with a .315/.380/.560 opponent’s batting line in nine starts is worst pitcher in baseball stuff, and Severino’s body language is terrible. He’s lost.

“We got the break coming up, and obviously we’ll dive deep in these next couple of days and continue to try and get him right,” Boone said about Severino (video). “... Physically, he’s good. We’ve gotta – it is concerning – it’s on all of us to get it right.”

The Yankees used a position player pitcher for the fifth (!) time this year Thursday night. That’s embarrassing, man. The Yankees used a position player pitcher five times from 2016-22. They’ve now done it five times in 88 games in 2023. They’re a pitching-first team and they’ve surrendered 96 runs in their last 19 games, or 5.05 per game. Stop! Stop! He’s already dead!

It appears some roster shuffling is coming. Rodón will be activated Friday, Deivi García will surely be sent down following his extended relief outing (only three games until the All-Star break and he wouldn’t be available for any of ‘em), and I’m gonna guess Albert Abreu is heading to the injured list after grimacing and shaking out his arm, and suddenly losing 3 mph off his fastball.

Furthermore, Jake Bauers hurt his shoulder diving for a ball Wednesday and went for an MRI on Thursday. A few hours after Bauers’ MRI, Estevan Florial was pulled from Triple-A Scranton’s game. The full set of roster moves could be something like this:

• García optioned.
• Abreu to the injured list.
• Bauers to the injured list.
• Rodón activated.
• Florial called up.
• Reliever called up (Greg Weissert? Anthony Misiewicz*? Brito threw five innings Tuesday, so it won’t be him)

The Yankees will need to open 40-man roster spots for Rodón and Florial, though that’s easy enough. Greg Allen and Cortes are 60-day injured list candidates at this point. Allen is weeks away and Nestor has only thrown a handful of bullpen sessions. He was placed on the injured list June 5th and still has several rehab steps (and starts) ahead of him.

I don’t know if Florial can hit MLB pitching. He’s an actual outfielder who will catch the ball in left field though. The tomato cans the Yankees are running out there now ain’t it. The veterans are not gonna save the Yankees. Young players (and a healthy Aaron Judge) are the only way to get moving in the right direction. Get Oswald Peraza up here too. (RailRiders manager Shelley Duncan told Donnie Collins nothing is imminent with Florial following their game Thursday, but he would say that anyway. Doesn’t mean much.)

In the grand scheme of things, splitting with the Orioles is fine. It stinks it happened after winning the first two games, but the Yankees didn’t lose any ground. All their flaws were on display the last two games though. The offense is inept, the left field situation is still dire, and all the injured guys have not made an impact upon their return. What are the positives here? Gerrit Cole rules and Anthony Volpe might get to a .700 OPS by the All-Star break?

The Yankees insist their players will turn it around because they have track records – they have said this since last year – but it’s not happening, and I don’t see why it would at this point. That was about as bad a four-game split as you can have, after about as bad a 3-3 road trip as you can have. This team needs an enema.

* The Yankees claimed the lefty Misiewicz off waivers from the Tigers on Thursday and he was initially sent to Scranton. The Yankees are the 28-year-old’s fifth team in the last two years. He’s a cutter/four-seamer/curveball guy with good spin and meh underlying numbers, but you never know with relievers with this team. Misiewicz slotted into Jimmy Cordero’s 40-man roster spot.

Shut down by Kremer

Dean Kremer, who took a 5.04 ERA (5.13 FIP) in Wednesday’s start, held the Yankees to two runs in seven innings. He’s the 22nd pitcher to complete seven innings against the Yankees this year. Only 18 pitchers did it last year, and only 12 did it in 2021. Kremer struck out a career high 10 on Tuesday. Three of his six games with 7+ strikeouts have come against the Yankees.

“He seemed like he had extra life on his fastball today,” Anthony Rizzo, who probably feels that way about a lot of pitchers these days, told Hoch after the game.

Kremer isn’t a Yankees killer. He has a career 4.87 ERA (4.63 FIP) in eight starts against the Yankees and a career 4.63 ERA (4.70 FIP) against everyone else. Rather, Wednesday’s game was a product of a pitcher with these splits …

• vs. RHB: .258/.304/.432 (.319 wOBA) with 23.8 K% and 4.8 BB%
• vs. LHB: .307/.361/.540 (.386 wOBA) with 19.9 K% and 7.3 BB%

… seeing a lineup with only two lefties (Rizzo and Bauers). Oswaldo Cabrera and Billy McKinney were on the bench, but they’re Oswaldo Cabrera and Billy McKinney. Long gone are the days of having Tim Raines and Darryl Strawberry available as platoon options. (McKinney was unavailable for a few days earlier this week after fouling a pitch into his toe on the road trip.)

The Yankees got shut down by Kremer because, as we’ve seen time and time again the last few years, they lack the lefty bats to match up with a pitcher with those splits. The Orioles had seven lefties and switch-hitters in their lineup* against Clarke Schmidt on Tuesday. They have a roster capable of matching up against guys with big splits. The Yankees most certainly do not.

* Do you know how long it’s been since the Yankees had seven lefties or switch-hitters in their starting lineup? It hasn’t happened since Sept, 30th, 2016.

Ultimately, the Yankees handed a two-run lead over the bullpen Wednesday and the bullpen blew it. Those guys are allowed to have a bad night though. The bullpen has been making small leads stand up all season. The bigger issue is the downside of an imbalanced lineup again showed up. If you’re a righty who struggles against lefties, the Yankees are a good matchup for you.

A quick note on optionable relievers

Players can only be sent down to the minors five times in a single season now. After the fifth option, he has to go through waivers. Here is my unofficial tally of the number of options the various shuttle pitchers have used this season:

• RHP Jhony Brito: 2 (so 3 remaining)
• RHP Deivi García: 2 (assuming he’s sent down for Rodón on Friday)
• LHP Matt Krook: 2
• LHP Anthony Misiewicz: 4 already
• LHP Nick Ramirez: 2
• RHP Randy Vásquez: 3
• RHP Greg Weissert: 2

Option and service time rules are complicated, so I can’t guarantee those numbers are accurate. For example, Brito was optioned on April 3rd and recalled as an injury replacement on April 8th. In that case I believe the April 3rd option is rescinded. If not, Brito is at three options for the season already, and has two remaining.

Also, the 15-day minimum stay in the minors doesn’t count for the 27th man for a doubleheader. I don’t think that counts against the five options either (otherwise Krook and Weissert would be at three). What about Opening Day? Does that first option out of Spring Training count? Kinda feels like it should, but I’m not sure. If it does count, Vásquez is at four already.

The five-option limit is one of those things I try to keep track of just so I know who can come and go. The Yankees are on top of it though. They’re not gonna call up Vásquez to make a spot start and then get caught off guard when it turns out he’s already used his five options. The options have been distributed pretty evenly thus far (other than Misiewicz, who just arrived). It’s not an accident. The Yankees have their ducks in a row.

Miscellany

Nice spot start for Vásquez on Wednesday. He had just one 1-2-3 inning and he walked three against one strikeout, but five scoreless innings is five scoreless innings. Vásquez is giving me 2021 Luis Gil vibes. He’s (probably) not fully ready for the show yet, though he’s able to out-stuff hitters and get by. Nicely done, Randy … Although those two fifth inning home runs put a damper on things, I thought Schmidt was terrific Tuesday afternoon. As noted, the Orioles had seven lefties or switch-hitters in the starting lineup, and Schmidt was still able to retire 13 of the first 14 batters he faced, including striking out the side in the third inning. Here are his updated numbers against lefties:

• First 9 starts: .369/.438/.667 (.463 wOBA) with 21.9 K% and 10.4 BB%
• Last 9 starts: .242/.327/.364 (.311 wOBA) with 17.6 K% and 9.6 BB%

Schmidt is backdooring his cutter to steal strikes against lefties, something he didn’t (or couldn’t) do earlier this season, and he’s executing better with his breaking ball. He’s up to 87.1 innings this year. His high as a pro are the 90.2 innings he threw in 2019 and 2022 (he threw 111.1 innings his sophomore season at South Carolina). Schmidt’s not scheduled to start this weekend and will get a nice 10-14 day break before his next outing … Ian Hamilton has given up some loud contact since coming off the injured list (4 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HR). I hope he’s just shaking off the rust and this isn’t the clock striking midnight. That would be a shame … The Yankees are 1-7 when Josh Donaldson hits a home run this season and he is 4-for-81 (.049) in at-bats when he doesn’t homer. I don’t have anything to add to this. Just, what the hell man … And finally, the YES Network announced Thursday that cameraman Pete Stendel suffered a fractured orbital bone when he was hit by an errant throw Wednesday. He’s home resting now. I’ve only chatted with him a handful of times, but he’s been nothing but nice to me. Get well soon, Pete.

1. Cordero suspended. Earlier this week MLB announced Jimmy Cordero has accepted a suspension for the rest of the season under the league’s domestic violence policy. It amounts to a 76-game suspension plus however many postseason games the Yankees play. I haven’t seen any details on what led to the suspension. It came out of nowhere.

“I was pretty upset. I know a lot of the guys on the team are upset,” Aaron Judge told Bryan Hoch. “This is in the league’s hands, and the league handed down the suspension. Hopefully he learns from this and becomes a better person. It's just a sad situation. Just thinking about Cordero's family, and his wife and kids. It's a tough situation that you never, never want anybody to go through."

Cordero was suspended the day the Yankees needed to clear a roster spot for Randy Vásquez while not having any obvious demote/release candidates. Also, Cordero threw 42 pitches in his last appearance, 14 more than any other game this year. That was Sunday, the day before an important series against a division rival, and it gave everyone else in the bullpen the afternoon off. Sure seems like the Yankees knew the suspension was coming, right down to the day, and planned their bullpen usage and roster moves around it. Either that or it’s a big coincidence.

(For what it’s worth, Aaron Boone told Dan Martin the Yankees knew about the investigation for about a week, though they didn’t find out about the suspension until Tuesday night, the night before it was announced by MLB.)

As for the on-field impact, Cordero was quite good this year, though he was also something like the team’s fifth or sixth best reliever. It’s not a massive season-altering loss. Cordero doesn’t get paid, doesn’t count against the luxury tax, and doesn’t count against the 40-man roster while on the restricted list.

Not much more to say here. It’s an easy enough loss to absorb on the field and I hope all involved get the help they need. The length of the suspension suggests whatever happened was pretty bad. It is MLB’s eighth longest suspension (out of 18) for domestic violence.

“I think that’s a ways away. I’m not sure,” Judge told Chris Kirschner when asked whether he would welcome Cordero back as a teammate. “I’ll have a better answer for you when the season is over with on that one.”

(I’ve seen a few folks say the Yankees should release Cordero. The collectively bargained domestic violence policy doesn’t allow it. The earliest the Yankees can release Cordero is the day his suspension ends. There’s a reason the Dodgers were stuck with Trevor Bauer all that time.)

3. Final pre-draft thoughts. The 2023 draft begins Sunday night and runs through Tuesday. The draft is only 20 rounds these days, which is probably all teams need following MLB’s minor league takeover and contraction plan. That’s another subject for another time though. Anyway, with the draft coming up, I have a few closing thoughts, so let’s get to ‘em.

Picks and slot values

Just to recap, here are the picks the Yankees hold this year, and their slot values. They forfeited their second and fifth rounders to sign Carlos Rodón.

1st round (No. 26 overall): $3,065,000
3rd round (No. 97 overall): $692,000
4th round (No. 129 overall): $506,800
6th round (No. 192 overall): $285,400
7th round (No. 222 overall): $224,700
8th round (No. 252 overall): $188,000
9th round (No. 282 overall): $173,100
10th round (No. 312 overall): $164,400
Rounds 11-20 are every 30 picks thereafter

Every pick in rounds 11-20 has a $125,000 slot value and anything over $125,000 counts against the bonus pool. Same with undrafted free agents. The Yankees will make just that No. 26 pick Sunday. Monday is rounds 3-10 and Tuesday is rounds 11-20.

The Yankees have a $5,299,400 bonus pool, second smallest behind the Phillies ($5,185,500). Add in the 5% overage (the maximum you can go over before forfeiting a future first rounder) and the Yankees can max their bonus pool out at $5,564,370 this year. That’s less than slot for the No. 9 pick ($5,716,900). What can you do? That’s the cost of being not awful.

The Stafura rumors

The Yankees usually pick late in the first round and it’s rare to see them firmly connected to a player throughout the spring. The Spencer Jones, Trey Sweeney, and Austin Wells buzz popped up very late and there were basically no rumblings about Anthony Volpe. Nothing unusual there. That’s how it is with every team late in the first round. The nets are cast wide out of necessity.

This spring, however, the Yankees have been connected to New York HS SS Sammy Stafura (my profile) basically since Day 1. Nearly every mock draft from the major scouting publications has had the Yankees taking Stafura. It’s not a coincidence. The Yankees are in on Stafura heavily, so much so that there’s no point in linking them to anyone else right now.

I don’t doubt the reporting. I just wonder if the Stafura rumors have taken on a mind of their own these last few weeks, and the Yankees’ interest in other players is being overlooked (I’m sure they don’t mind). Things are set up for the Yankees to either draft Stafura and make us say “yeah, of course,” or draft someone else and make us say “woah! didn’t see that coming!” Feels like there’s no in-between this year.

It is possible, if not likely, I’m reading way too much into this. It’s just rare – this basically never happens – the Yankees are so firmly connected to one player the entire draft season. Usually we hear they’re on this guy, then that group of college hitters, then wait it’s this other player, until things get zeroed in the last week before the draft. This year the zeroing in happened like three months out. Weird.

Other prospects of note

Counting the Day 2 college pitchers as one “player,” I wrote up only 14 draft prospects this year, down from 24 last year and 28 the year before. What’s that about? Must’ve gotten a late start this year. Probably for the best seeing how the Yankees draft one, maaaybe two players I write up each year. It’s a labor of love. It’s also a lot of wasted words. Anyway, here are a few last minute draft prospects I want to touch on, quick-hitter style.

Virginia HS OF Jonny Farmelo: A late riser who has been connected to smart teams like the Rays (No. 19 and 31 picks) and Braves (No. 24) in recent weeks, Farmelo is a lefty hitting tool shed with speed, athleticism, bat-to-ball skills, a good approach, and some pop. MLB.com says he has “the speed and range to play center field, with the upside of being a dynamic up-the-middle presence.” The Yankees don’t draft high schoolers often these days, but Farmelo sounds like someone who could be the exception.

LSU RHP Ty Floyd: Floyd boosted his stock in the College World Series. Teams normally don’t get caught up in one or two starts, but Floyd struck out 10 in five innings against a powerhouse Wake Forest offense, then struck out 17 in eight innings against Florida (video). Floyd had a 4.35 ERA (5.47 FIP) with a 31.0% strikeout rate this spring and the fastball metrics (mid-90s velocity, spin, induced vertical break, etc.) are elite. The secondaries are less refined. Floyd was considered a possible second or third rounder previously and would have been up the Yankees’ alley at No. 97. Now he’s likely to go late in the first round. Floyd gives off major Spencer Strider vibes (Strider was a similar elite fastball, meh secondaries draft prospect) and teams won’t want to miss out on that guy again after Strider made it all the way to the fourth round in 2020.

Florida Atlantic 1B Nolan Schanuel: I mostly just want to type out Schanuel’s slash line: .444/.612/.864 (219 RC+) with 24.6% walks and 4.8% strikeouts this spring. That’s 71 walks and 14 strikeouts. I would call those video game numbers, but no self-respecting MLB The Show player walks that much. Schanuel did that in a not great conference and the exit velocity and whatnot is just okay, but he can hit. He’s gotten a lot of buzz in the 18-24 range, possibly as a below slot option for a team with an extra pick(s) they can spend the savings on later (Brewers, Guardians, Mariners, Rays). Not sure Schanuel will make it to the Yankees at No. 26. Not sure he’s their type as a first base-only guy either, but hey, look at that batting line!

California HS C/1B Ralphy Velazquez: Velazquez was one of the first players I added to my list of draft prospects to write about and I just never got around to him. He fits the Yankees’ M.O. as a lefty swinger with big time ball-tracking data and a track record of performance against top competition while playing an up-the-middle position. Velazquez is a bat-first prospect and it is not seen as likely that he’ll catch long-term. If he can’t, he’ll have to go to first base because he lacks the speed for the outfield and the quick reactions for third base.

Illinois HS RHP Blake Wolters: Wolters gave up basketball this year to focus on baseball and he’s made significant gains, most notably going from the low-90s last summer to the mid-90s this spring, and touching 99 mph. He’s shown the ability to spin the ball, though his breaking ball is not consistent yet. Wolters has size (listed at 6-foot-4 and 210 lbs.), arm strength, and spin, and he showed he can make adjustments when he refined his mechanics this spring. I would bet against the Yankees taking a high school pitcher at No. 26, though that realistically is their only chance to get Wolters. He won’t be around at No. 97.

Final thoughts

I do not claim to know what the best pick or the right pick would be. Society has evolved beyond the point of saying “the Yankees took Baseball America’s 54th ranked player with the No. 26 pick, so it’s a bad pick.” The capacity for players, particularly young players just entering pro ball, to get better has never been greater. Player development is outrageously good these days.

All I can tell you is my preference and I like Kent State LHP Joe Whitman (my profile). Feels like there’s a lot of untapped potential there, plus the Yankees always need quality lefties in Yankee Stadium. I don’t see it as drafting for need. I see it as drafting to your organizational strengths. I’d like to see what the team’s pitcher development gurus could do with Whitman.

Stafura is a very good prospect (Jim Callis says he was a standout at the draft combine) and, based on the little I know, he would be a fine selection at No. 26. I know several other teams, including teams that pick before the Yankees (Braves and Guardians, notably) have interest in Stafura, so it could be the Yankees won’t even get a chance to select him. We’ll find out Sunday.

The Yankees’ developmental strengths are pitching (really all types) and hard-hit ability. They can teach their hitters to hit the ball harder. From where I sit, they lag in developing approach and pure hitting ability, which is largely innate but can be taught to some extent. The Dodgers and more recently the Orioles seem to have figured it out. They know how to maximize hitters.

Exit velocity has been a priority on draft day and that’s fine, there’s a clear correlation between hitting the ball hard and being a successful hitter, though I wonder if it would make sense to target more polished hitters and try to coach up their hard-hit ability, rather than the other way around. To be clear, I wouldn’t listen to me if I were the Yankees. I’m just thinking out loud here.

Recent history suggests the Yankees will go with a hitter in the first round and coach-up-able pitchers in the middle rounds. It’s worked for them the last few years, so why not stick with it? This draft is very deep in hitters, and if the Yankees take a hitter at No. 26, chances are that player will be a better prospect than the hitters taken at No. 26 most years.

It’s a deep draft and a bad year to forfeit picks to sign a qualified free agent, but these things don’t happen in a vacuum. The Yankees are trying to win a World Series and Rodón is far, far more likely to contribute to a World Series in the near future than the two draft picks the Yankees gave up to sign him ever will. Hopefully a deep draft class leads to a good draft.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. No surprise here, but no Yankees will take part in the Home Run Derby next week. The Home Run Derby has been Yankees-less since Aaron Judge won it in 2017 (Gary Sánchez was also in it that year). Here is this year’s Home Run Derby field:

Also, several All-Star Game replacements were announced this week, and no Yankees have been added. It’s still just Judge and Gerrit Cole. I’m sure there will be a few more replacements added before Tuesday, so maybe Clay Holmes sneaks in. Probably not, but maybe. Here are the updated All-Star Game rosters.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

George asks: Is it my imagination or is Stanton finally assuming less of a closed stance in the last few games? I've always hated it when he takes that very exaggerated position with his feet, as opposed to facing the pitcher more head on.

I did not notice this myself but George is right. Giancarlo Stanton is more open at the plate now. Here are the slowed down before and after GIFs:

It’s not an extreme change but Stanton isn’t quite as closed now as he was even two weeks ago. Hitters typically open up their stance to get a better look at the ball, and with the way Stanton has been struggling dating back to last year, getting a better look at the ball certainly seems smart.

Because of the camera angles, it’s difficult to tell exactly when Stanton made the adjustment, but I think June 27th is the first day with the more open stance. That was the first day of the Athletics series (the previous day was an off-day). Stanton is 7-for-29 (.241) with two doubles, one homer, three walks, and five strikeouts since June 27th.

It’s easy to think of Stanton as a brute force masher, and he is to some extent, but he puts a lot of work into preparation. He studies pitchers intently and every batting practice round he does nothing but shoot the ball to right field. Giancarlo has not hit well for over a year now, but it’s not because he doesn’t work at it. Hopefully this seemingly minor adjustment leads to big production.

Adam asks: We all know that the Yanks went all-in on Shohei when he first came over, and Shohei showed zero interest. But is there any reason to believe things have changed and that we actually have a shot at him this off-season? I can't imagine the Angels trading him in the middle of a HR race regardless of team record, but is there any reason to hold on to the hope that the Yanks could trade for him in an effort to win him over on moving to NYC for a few months before free agency? I haven't loved watching a non-Yankee this much since Griffey, and the "I'll never play for the Yankees" narrative is such a weird parallel (despite completely different reasons for it).

Honestly, no, there’s no reason to think Shohei Ohtani has since changed his mind and is willing to play in New York, but it’s not like he’s had the opportunity, right? Gerrit Cole turned down the Yankees as their first round pick in 2008 and yet he signed with them as soon as he was free to do so. We just don’t know whether Ohtani is willing to sign with the Yankees, and that is true of every free agent every offseason. (Shohei says his priority is winning, so who knows.)

Adam sent this question in a few hours before Mike Trout broke his hamate Monday night. The Angels are 4-11 in their last 15 games and, at 45-44, they are four games behind the last Wild Card spot. It goes without saying losing Trout for 6-8 weeks (or whatever it is) is a devastating blow. He’s not having a typical Trout year, though that just means he’s been a top 15 player in the world rather than the top 1 player in the world. The Halos … they’re in trouble.

Jon Heyman reported the Yankees made a “serious offer” for Ohtani at the deadline last season. We don’t know who was part of that “serious offer,” but if the Yankees tried last year, I see no reason to think they won’t try this year. Ohtani is a DH only and he requires a six-man rotation, and the Yankees can easily swing that.

• Giancarlo Stanton has played the outfield five times in the last eight games. He’s not exactly tearing the cover off the ball either. Ohtani is a big DH upgrade. I mean, the guy is hitting .296/.383/.650 (177 wRC+) with 31 homers. Every team could use that bat.
• The six-man rotation could be beneficial. Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino have injury concerns and Clarke Schmidt is gonna set a career high in innings soon. The Yankees can finagle things in such a way that Cole still starts every fifth day, if they want.

There is a recent history of players joining the Yankees as rentals, falling in love with the city and the organization, and then re-signing as free agents. Zack Britton, J.A. Happ, and Chase Headley all did it, and they reportedly turned down more money too. I don’t think we can definitively say trading for Ohtani would give the Yankees a better chance of retaining him, but there is a trend of that happening.

The trade deadline is three weeks and four days away. I think the Angels would have to crash and crash hard – which they are fully capable of doing! – between now and then to trade Ohtani. They have aggressively called up prospects (Sam Bachman, Ben Joyce, Zach Neto) and made trades (Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, and supposedly they're now talking to the Pirates about something, dunno what though) to improve the roster and try to get to the postseason. As long as they’re within striking distance of a Wild Card spot, I think they keep Ohtani and go for it.

It seems like the consensus is Ohtani will sign with the Dodgers, but who really knows. He is my favorite non-Aaron Judge player to watch and I really, really, really hope the Yankees trade for him later this month and/or sign him as a free agent. His production is a bargain at $50M a year and he’ll pay for himself the first few years of his next contract with his unmatched marquee value. His prime lines up perfectly with Cole’s and Judge’s too. I’m not gonna get my hopes up, but maybe?

Vinny asks: Should the Padres decide to sell, what’s a hypothetical trade package for Juan Soto?

At 41-46, the Padres are nine games out in the NL West and six games behind the final Wild Card spot. They’ve been done in by underperforming stars (namely Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, and Manny Machado) and a lack of depth. The bench and middle of the bullpen tend to get exposed when they’re pushed into action. San Diego has a very top heavy roster.

Soto hasn’t been part of the problem. He’s hitting .272/.426/.490 (152 wRC+) with 15 home runs and he leads baseball with 81 walks, and he’s hit .307/.451/.543 (172 wRC+) since May 1st. Soto will become a free agent after 2024 and he’s a Scott Boras client, and he’s already rejected one monster contract. Boras loves to take his top clients out into free agency and break contract records. A Soto extension in San Diego (or anywhere) would surprise me.

I’d say it’s unlikely, but if the Padres do decide to move Soto, the Yankees should be at the front of the line. He’s the impact lefty bat they sorely need. There haven’t been many trades involving 1.5 years (or even two full years) of a star position player. There have been plenty involving one year (Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, Francisco Lindor, etc.), but not two years. (Trea Turner was traded 1.5 years prior to free agency, though that was part of a larger deal with Max Scherzer.)

My guess is the Yankees would make Anthony Volpe off-limits. He was reportedly off-limits at the deadline last year when they spoke to the Nationals about Soto, and I see no reason to believe their feelings have changed. In that case, no one in the farm system should be off-limits. Jasson Domínguez, Spencer Jones, Oswaldo Peraza, whoever. They’re all on the table for me.

The complicating factor is the Padres aren’t gonna rebuild. They have a ton of money invested in that roster and they won’t take a step back for a few years and build up the farm system while Bogaerts and Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are in their prime. I assume they’ll want at least some MLB players, or near-MLB-ready players, in a Soto trade. Might as well use the Trade Values site:

That’s an extremely easy yes, isn’t it? We all love Mike King and he’s an important piece of the 2023 Yankees, but he’s been merely very good rather than Terminator Mike King since the elbow fracture last year. Clarke Schmidt isn’t starting a postseason game in a perfect world, and the two prospects are the cost of doing business. That’s a really, really easy yes for me.

Soto is an incredible hitter, legitimately a once-in-a-generation type, though he’s at best average defensively, and he’s not cheap. He’s making $23M this year and is likely to join Shohei Ohtani in the “$30M in arbitration” club next year. Everything is a give and take in this game. You want me to take on that $30M commitment? Okay, then you get a lesser trade package. This is all a hypothetical anyway. I don’t expect the Padres to trade Soto this summer.

Jack asks: We came into the season thinking that Greg Weissert was a breakout candidate. That certainly hasn't materialized. What's going on with Greg, the guy the Yankees never bother calling up?

Eh, I’m not sure Weissert was ever really a breakout candidate. If anything, he had his breakout last season. Weissert gets so much movement on his sinker and sweeper. He hasn’t pitched much in the big leagues this season, so here is last year’s sweeper horizontal movement leaderboard (min. 50 sweepers thrown). You will notice a pattern:

That movement – Weissert’s sinker was at 11% above average horizontally – is a double-edged sword. It’s hard to hit but also hard to control, hence Weissert’s double-digit walk rates and high (for a reliever) hit-by-pitch totals. All those free baserunners will likely prevent him from ever being more than a middle relief option, and hey, there's nothing wrong with being a middle reliever.

Weissert is a perfectly fine if not better than average shuttle reliever who fits in the 35-40 range of the 40-man roster. He’s in the wrong organization. The Yankees don’t have room for him in their bullpen. I assume Weissert would welcome a trade to a team that can offer a greater big league opportunity. With the Yankees, it’s hard to see him being anything more than an up and down guy during his option years (Weissert still has options for 2024 and 2025).

Mark asks: I’ve been wondering in recent weeks why it seems to be more obvious when a pitcher is in decline than when a hitter is in decline. With pitchers, declining velocity is the first and most obvious marker. However, it doesn’t seem like there is a corollary to hitters. We all suspect that Donaldson has lost bat speed and as such is “cheating” to catch up to fastballs. However, is there any empirical way to show this. And if so, do these metrics confirm what our eyes see: that JD is cooked?

We have more measurables for pitchers (velocity, spin, etc.) and pitchers generally have more control over their results than hitters as well. Statcast measures bat speed, swing plane, and things like that, but the data isn’t public. We don’t know much about it yet either. What’s a good average bat speed? How do different bat speeds play at different swing planes? Etc.

Hitter analytics are behind pitcher analytics, partly because hitting is reactionary and we don’t have public measures of body movement or the way your brain reads and reacts to situations. A 37-year-old could hit a 110 mph line drive just like a 24-year-old, but exit velocity won’t tell us the 37-year-old has to start his bat early to catch up to the same 94 mph fastball.

Elevated strikeout and ground ball rates were pre-Statcast indicators of a slowing bat. Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Rizzo (but not Giancarlo Stanton) are all running their highest strikeout rates since their early days in the big leagues. Only Donaldson has an elevated ground ball rate though. Is that just a sign of the times, that aging hitters are better at getting the ball airborne than the aging hitters of yesteryear? I don’t know.

I wish I had a better answer. We can measure exactly (or close to exactly) how the ball comes out of the pitcher’s hand and how the ball comes off the hitter’s bat, but the pitcher dictates the action and the hitter reacts, and that’s more difficult to measure. The information we have these days is way better than even five years ago. It’s still an incomplete picture though.

Ray asks: Barring a meltdown, the Yankees will go into the All-Star break 10 games over .500 playing a bunch of Quad A players on offense and veterans underperforming. Yes, their pitching *should* carry them to the WC. But as someone who isn't a Boone fan, how much credit does he get for holding together such a motley crew, especially since his GM didn't help him in the off-season?

Aaron Boone definitely deserves credit. The Yankees have as much of a winning culture as you can have without the championship cherry on top, and this year three or four of them navigating long-term injuries to important players better than anyone could have reasonably expected. Do it once and okay, nice work. Do it year after year and it’s a repeatable skill. Boone deserves credit for building and maintaining a good culture that allows his players to succeed. He has the ability, similar to Joe Torre, to shut down any distractions and avoid big messes. It’s not easy and it’s important in this neck of the woods. Joe Girardi was intense and you could see the stress on his face. Players pick up on that. Boone’s calm serves the Yankees well, even though he does make annoying on-field moves regularly.

Nico asks: No offense to IKF and JD, but when they both hit the ball farther than ever in the same game, it got me wondering: Is the rocket ball back?? Or did IKF really just learn how to hit the ball 400+ feet last week? Could partially explain Ohtani and Acuna's insane stats as well.

There is some evidence the ball is more “juiced” than last year. It’s definitely not at 2019 levels. More like 2021. Drag coefficient data is public now. I can’t explain how the science works. I just know the lower the drag coefficient, the more the ball carries.

Average barrel distance is another possible indicator. In a nutshell, a barrel is a batted ball within the exit velocity and launch angle ranges most conducive to high slugging percentages. Average fly ball distance has changed over time in part because of the recent emphasis on exit velocity, but barrels are in a fixed range. Here is the average barrel distance over the years:

• 2018: 382 feet
• 2019: 390 feet
• 2020: 390 feet
• 2021: 386 feet
• 2022: 383 feet
• 2023: 384 feet

Keep in mind we’re only a week into July. Home runs and fly ball distances typically peak in July and August, the hot summer months, and we’re just now getting there. Just for comparison, the average barrel distance was 388 feet a week into July 2019. It was 381 feet a week into July last year. Figure the 2023 average barrel distance will finish around 386 feet, like 2021.

A conspiracy theorist could say MLB is juicing the ball a little more this year after realizing they went too far in the other direction last year. They’re trying to find the right balance. I think it’s incompetence more than malice. Specifications for the ball-making process have a wide range, and the result is having no idea how the ball will play year to year. So it goes.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)