July 4th, 2023: Bader, Severino, Leadoff Spot, Rotation, All-Star Game, Breaux, Nationals

The Yankees have a +35 run differential and you can break that down into +34 against the Athletics and +1 against everyone else. You can also break it down into -17 against the Red Sox and +52 against everyone else. Take your pick. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. I swear, only the 2023 Yankees could throw a perfect game and still have a bad road trip. The road to the postseason is paved with wins against bad teams and the Yankees just split six games against two bad teams. Going 3-3 against the Athletics and Cardinals is weak, guys. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Never bunt, hit dingers

Three straight games with a sacrifice bunt! Who is this team? The Yankees sac bunted for the third straight game Monday – it’s their first three-game sac bunt streak since a five-gamer in 1997, and they had three sac bunts all year going into this streak – including to set up the game tying run in the series opener against the Orioles. I have two conflicting feelings:

1. The offense is really struggling, and giving up outs (the currency of offense) probably isn’t the best idea.
2. The offense is really struggling, so do whatever you have to do to generate offense.

All three sac bunts these last three games led to runs, so hey, thumbs up. Of course, the most notable bunt Monday night was the bunt not made. Harrison Bader squared around twice with runners on first and second and no outs in the eighth inning, but once the lefty Danny Coulombe fell behind in the count 2-1, Aaron Boone gave Bader the green light, and hit the game-winning three-run homer (video).

“I wasn’t gonna take the bat out of his hands completely there,” Boone said after the game (video). “… I was only gonna play (for the bunt) for one pitch probably there. He did the rest. Got a hanger and did good things with the hanger.”

(I'm 95% sure Bader gave Boone a hard time about asking him to bunt. The YES Network showed Bader walking up to Boone in the dugout after the homer and the two laughing. That had to be it.)

In all seriousness, I’m begrudgingly okay with the uptick in bunts given the state of the offense, but Bader should always swing against lefties. He took a .345/.394/.862 line against lefties into Monday’s game (and a .228/.240/.337 line against righties). Swing away against lefties, bunt against righties, Harrison. Good win. Sorely needed win. Build on it Tuesday.

Strugglin’ Sevy

Even while shutting out the Rangers (the highest scoring team in baseball) for six innings in his previous start, Luis Severino didn’t exactly dominate. He had only four swings and misses on 95 pitches and he had just one 1-2-3 inning. Severino navigated jams more than he avoided them. On Saturday, Severino jumped back on the struggle bus: 4 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 HR.

“There’s a lot of things within there that should get him back online,” Boone told Max Goodman following Severino’s stinker. “He’s healthy and the fastball is there. We just gotta get him more consistent right now with command, and just crispness of the stuff outing after outing.”

I disagree the fastball is there. I mean, it’s there in the sense that Severino throws a fastball, but his velocity dipped again Saturday …

… and the induced vertical break is down from 17.5 inches last year to 16.3 inches this year. In English, that means Severino’s fastball has less life up in the zone. It’s not coming in as hot and it doesn’t have the same hop that causes hitters to swing under it. The result: .300 AVG and .556 SLG against Severino’s fastball this year. Those numbers were .186 and .277 last season. Seven homers allowed on the fastball already too. He allowed nine on the fastball all last year.

I’m more worried about Severino being diminished by all the injuries (including the lat strain this spring) than I am about him being hurt again. I mean, if he’s hurt again, it would stink, but at least then we might have an explanation. If this is fully healthy Severino, it’s bad news. His fastball is down a grade, probably two, and his slider and changeup are less effective because hitters don’t have to respect his fastball as much. It’s a bad, bad combination.

“Right now I’m not in my best moment. I can’t make excuses. I just need to figure out a way to be consistent and get people out,” Severino told Goodman. “... This whole year has been concerning for me. I want to be able to go out there and help my team. That’s frustrating that I can’t do that.”

Even with Carlos Rodón returning later this week, the Yankees aren’t in position to pull Severino from the rotation. Nestor Cortes is still a few weeks away and Clarke Schmidt is 4-5 starts away from setting a new career high in innings. Schmidt has pitched well the last few weeks and how the Yankees manage his workload moving forward is a pretty big deal. The Yankees have little choice but to let Severino work through things right now.

Severino will start Thursday’s game against the Orioles – that will be an important one no matter how the next two nights go – and then he’ll get a nice long All-Star break to rest and forget about baseball for a little bit. The Yankees are on the postseason bubble and can’t afford Severino pitching to 6.30 ERA (6.33 FIP) all year. He has to be better. Can he be better? I don’t know, but I do know losing so much life off his heater has me concerned. How could you not be?

On the lineup and leadoff spot

I was planning to save this for the next edition of Five Things You May Or May Not Know About The 2023 Yankees, but I don’t know when that’s coming, and I don’t think I can wait any longer. I present to you some numbers (entering Monday’s game):

Yankees leadoff hitters: .233/.299/.386
MLB average leadoff hitter: .266/.338/.428

Yankees leading off an inning: .228/.301/.371
MLB average batter leading off an inning: .243/.312/.410

The leadoff hitter, the guy batting in the No. 1 spot, has a .299 OBP. Hitters leading off an inning, regardless of where they’re slotted in the lineup, have a .301 OBP. I guess that’s actually good seeing how the Yankees have a .300 OBP as a team overall. This team is bad at hitting period, and they’re especially bad at setting the table.

Setting aside defensive alignment and speaking purely about offense, the best lineup the Yankees can muster right now probably looks like this:

1. Anthony Volpe
2. Gleyber Torres
3. Anthony Rizzo
4. Giancarlo Stanton
5. Harrison Bader
6. Who
7. Cares
8. They
9. All stink

Volpe has been excellent since his chicken parm powwow with Austin Wells. I’m not eager to rush him back into the leadoff spot – can we give the kid a chance to catch his breath and really settle in? – but I don’t see what other choice the Yankees have at this point (he’s their best hitter!) It’s too bad we have to discuss this because others aren’t carrying their weight.

Losing two of three to the Cardinals stinks, don’t get me wrong, but St. Louis has a good offense and they took three of four from the Dodgers a few weeks ago. They’re probably not as bad as their record. I’m mostly annoyed at just how bad the Yankees were offensively and how feeble the at-bats have become. They’re hitting like me in MLB The Show. Hack at anything near the strike zone and the result is a ground out, a pop up, or the occasional dinger.

The leadoff guy being bad is just part of the team-wide offensive problem. Every so often there’s a night like Monday when it all works out, but geez, this offense is frustrating, and there are times I think about how much has to change to get back to a truly great offense, and I’m overwhelmed. The pitching staff is going to drag this team to a Wild Card spot. The offense has to be better to go any further than that.

The doubleheader and the upcoming rotation

I was a bit surprised the Yankees simply pushed their starters back a day after Friday’s rainout. They could have started Gerrit Cole on normal rest Saturday and pushed Severino back one more day to Sunday, which would have allowed Cole to face the Orioles this week. Now he’ll miss that series and the struggling Severino will start against a team the Yankees are chasing.

Starting Cole against the O’s would have been ideal, but, following Sunday’s start, he ranked fourth in innings (109.2) and second in batters faced (448). Cole’s worked a ton this year and giving him extra rest when you can isn’t a bad idea. Here, just for the sake of laying it out, is the rotation the rest of the first half:

• Tuesday vs. Orioles: Clarke Schmidt
• Wednesday vs. Orioles: Randy Vásquez (officially TBA but it’ll be Vásquez)
• Thursday vs. Orioles: Luis Severino
• Friday vs. Cubs: Carlos Rodón (officially TBA but it’ll be Rodón)
• Saturday vs. Cubs: Gerrit Cole
• Sunday vs. Cubs: Domingo Germán

Rodón dominated in his final rehab start Sunday (3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K) (video), as a guy with his credentials should against High-A hitters*. The most important thing is he came out of it feeling good and healthy. He’s had no issues with his forearm or back during his rehab start and, barring an unfortunate surprise, Rodón will make his Yankees debut Friday.

“Excited to think about getting him back and know that that’s right on the horizon,” Boone told Greg Joyce over the weekend. “He’s one of those guys we feel like is a difference-maker. Hopefully we have a few of those guys trickling in in the second half of the season.”

* Rodón made his first two rehab starts with Double-A Somerset. He moved down to Hudson Valley for the third only because Somerset and Triple-A Scranton were on the road, and Hudson Valley was at home. Big leaguers travel for rehab games only when absolutely necessary.

The Yankees are still carrying a nine-man bullpen and a pitcher must go down to make room for Vásquez on Wednesday. I guess Nick Ramirez? He’s pitched really well, but it’s either demote Ramirez or designate Albert Abreu for assignment. The roster moves could look like this:

• Wednesday: Ramirez optioned, Vásquez called up
• Thursday: Vásquez optioned, reliever called up (Matt Krook*? Greg Weissert?)
• Friday: Reliever optioned, Rodón activated

* The 15-day waiting period doesn’t apply to the 27th man for doubleheaders. Krook could come back Thursday even after spending Saturday with the Yankees.

The Yankees may not even bother to call up a reliever Thursday unless it’s absolutely necessary (the bullpen is taxed, etc.). Players only get five options per year now. Are the Yankees really gonna burn one for a one-day stint when the reliever might not even pitch? If the bullpen is fried and they have to, they will. Otherwise they might just activate Rodón following Vásquez’s spot start. It’ll probably depend on the state of the bullpen.

(The Yankees will have to clear a 40-man roster spot when Rodón comes off the 60-day injured list. Aaron Judge has been on the injured list 30 days already, though I assume the Yankees keep the door open for him to return as soon as possible. Greg Allen is the more likely 60-day injured list candidate. He’s been out 31 days already and isn’t close to returning.)

I’m kinda rambling now. Point is, I was a bit surprised the Yankees pushed Cole back and out of the Orioles series, though I get giving him an extra day. They’ve been hard to come by. Rodón’s long-awaited Yankees debut is only a few days away too, even if it will be abbreviated (he threw 58 pitches Saturday, so figure 75-ish pitches Friday). The big offseason addition is finally in position to contribute.

Miscellany

As is often the case, the bullpen was the unsung hero Monday. Ramirez is making it really hard to send him down. He entered with runners on the corners and one out in the fifth, stranded both runners, and went 1-2-3 in the sixth as well. Four relievers combined to retire 14 of 17 batters faced. The bullpen saves this team’s bacon almost every single night. Remember when the bullpen was Mariano Rivera and hold onto your butts? Times have changed … Speaking of the bullpen, that was some outing for Mike King on Saturday. He entered with the bases loaded and two outs, escaped that jam, then fired three more scoreless innings. King retired 10 of the 12 batters he faced and threw just 36 pitches. That’s only his fourth highest pitch count of the year, and two weeks ago he needed 36 pitches to get four outs in Boston. Nicely done, fellow Mike … Eventful night for Isiah Kiner-Falefa Monday. It wasn’t all good – an actual outfielder probably makes those two catches in the third inning – but it was eventful. He singled to begin the seventh inning go-ahead rally and he doubled in the eighth inning as well, though he was thrown out at third after the throw got away. Honestly, I’m fine with that. The Yankees had a three-run lead and their stud closer was warmed up. I’m fine pushing the envelope there. Just didn’t work out. The Yankees are an adventure on the bases and in the field most nights, but at least they’re interesting, I guess. Kiner-Falefa was the main character in that regard Monday.

2. All-Star Game. As expected, Gerrit Cole was named to the All-Star Game over the weekend. Aaron Judge, who was voted in as a starter through the fan vote, is the only other Yankee to make it, so unless someone (Clay Holmes? Anthony Rizzo?) is added as an injury replacement in the coming days, this will be the first time since 2013 the Yankees have only two All-Stars. Robinson Canó and Mariano Rivera represented the Yankees that year.

“I’m very humbled,” Cole told Greg Joyce about being an All-Star. “I always think it’s special as a pitcher because you’re voted in by your peers. It’s a tremendous honor from people across the league who voted for me … I’m thrilled, I’m excited. I love to go represent the Yankees and everything we’re about. I’m looking forward to it.”

Cole lines up to start Saturday against the Cubs. That means next Tuesday would be the day he throws his usual between-starts bullpen session. Could he instead pitch an inning in the All-Star Game that night? Sure. I don’t see why not. It’s a high profile game but it is relatively low stress. The game doesn’t matter. There’s no scheduling reason Cole can’t pitch in the All-Star Game.

As of this writing Cole leads all pitchers (not just AL) with +3.4 WAR. He has as good a case to start the All-Star Game as anyone in the AL, especially with Shane McClanahan going on the injured list the other day. I’d say Cole, Shohei Ohtani, Framber Valdez (because Dusty Baker is managing), and Luis Castillo (because the game is in Seattle) are the most likely candidates to start the All-Star Game for the AL. We’ll find out who it is Monday.

“One of these days I would really like to start it. I gotta check that one off,” Cole told Joyce. “But I’m not sure how that shakes out over the next week. I know there’s a lot of deserving guys out there, specifically (Nate Eovaldi) has been lights out for Texas this year and probably deserves a hard look. We all love watching Shohei play, so having him pitch and hit first or second is probably the way things might shake out. But hey, you know what? If I don’t like it, I gotta pitch a little better I guess.”

Judge won’t play in the All-Star Game because of his toe injury – “As we get closer, we’ll make a decision,” Judge told Joyce when asked whether he’ll attend the All-Star Game and take part in pregame introductions and all that – so if Cole doesn’t pitch Tuesday and no one gets added as an injury replacement, no Yankees will play in the All-Star Game. As Benjamin Hoffman wrote last week, that has happened only twice in the 92 prior All-Star Games:

1991: Scott Sanderson was the Yankees’ only All-Star and he didn’t pitch because he started a few days earlier, and didn’t have enough rest.

1943: Tiny Bonham, Spud Chandler, Bill Dickey, Joe Gordon, Charlie Keller, and Johnny Lindell made the All-Star Game that year, but AL manager (and Yankees manager) Joe McCarthy didn’t use any of them because he wanted to show the AL was so superior to the NL that the AL didn’t need any Yankees to win the All-Star Game. The AL won 5-3.

“We didn’t need them,” McCarthy said about not playing his Yankees in the All-Star Game (per Hoffman). “We got out there in front early enough. Besides, these other boys deserved a chance to shine. The Yankees have had enough of the limelight.”

Needless to say, zero Yankees appearing in the All-Star Game would be incredibly lame. If Cole doesn’t want to pitch because it disrupts his routine or whatever, fine, but it is his throw day and I don’t see why couldn’t throw an inning. This is Cole’s sixth All-Star Game (2015, 2018-19, 2021-23) but he’s only pitched in it once. He threw a scoreless inning as a Pirate in 2015.

The 2023 Yankees are better than the 2013 Yankees (I think?) but they certainly give off the same “two All-Stars only” vibe. Cole and Judge are the standouts on this team the same way Canó and Rivera were the standouts on that team. The Yankees are very top heavy this season. Cole and Judge truly are the stars. Everyone else just seems to be along for the ride.

3. Quick Triple-A catcher note. On Sunday, the Yankees demoted Josh Breaux from Triple-A Scranton to Double-A Somerset, though I don’t believe this is a precursor to an Austin Wells promotion. The RailRiders were carrying four catchers on the active roster and Breaux was not getting much playing time. The other three:

• Rodolfo Durán: .247/.312/.441 (84 wRC+) in 186 PA
• Carlos Narvaez: .283/.425/.472 (130 wRC+) in 134 PA
• Ben Rortvedt: .301/.427/.521 (141 wRC+) in 89 PA

Durán has the most plate appearances but he is essentially the emergency third catcher. Breaux (elbow) and Rortvedt (aneurysm) started the season on the injured list and Narvaez was promoted in May, and they’ve gotten the majority of the playing time behind the plate since arriving. Durán has played more first base than catcher lately. The Yankees are comfortable giving inconsistent playing time.

Breaux, 25, is still something of a prospect, yet he hadn’t played at all since June 25th, and he got into only three games (11 plate appearances) since completing his injury rehab and joining the RailRiders on June 16th. He’s gotta play and there’s no real path to playing time with Scranton with Narvaez and Rortvedt tearing it up. They’re ahead of Breaux on the depth chart.

Anthony Seigler was placed on the injured list on June 29th and Breaux’s demotion suggests Seigler may be out a while. Wells and Mickey Gasper are Somerset’s two catchers with Seigler hurt. Wells is on a catch-catch-DH three-day schedule and I’m guessing Breaux will catch when Wells is at DH, and Gasper will be the emergency third catcher who also plays some first base.

So, Breaux’s weekend demotion is more about getting him the at-bats with Somerset he wasn’t getting with Scranton. When will the Yankees promote Wells? I do not know. I kinda feel like it should have happened already. Regardless, I don’t believe Breaux’s demotion is about clearing a Triple-A spot for Wells. I think it was about clearing the Scranton catching logjam.

4. Scouting the Trade Market: Washington Nationals. The 2021 trade deadline is exactly four weeks away and, at minimum, the Yankees need a left fielder, preferably a left-handed hitter. They could also use a starting pitcher, a third baseman, a catcher, a bench bat, and maybe even another reliever. I don’t expect a change at catcher. The other spots? Yeah, I could see it.

Given the current postseason races, there are very few clear-cut sellers this summer, and the teams expected to sell (Athletics, Rockies, Royals, etc.) don’t have much to offer. The last place the Nationals are among the expected sellers as well, and GM Mike Rizzo isn’t afraid to be bold. He traded Max Scherzer, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and others the last two deadlines.

"Well, I think we're gonna be aggressive. Take that whatever way you wanna take that,” Rizzo said during a recent radio interview. “We're gonna do whatever's best for the organization and for the long-term. We've got some good players that a lot of teams are calling about. We've got six or seven guys that we've fielded phone calls about already.”

Rizzo and Brian Cashman are technically the two longest-tenured GMs in baseball (Billy Beane moved into an executive vice president role a few years ago) but they haven’t made many trades with each other. Just four trades total, all minor. I don’t think that means Cashman and Rizzo have a bad working relationship. Just kind of a weird quirk. They haven’t done much business.

Anyway, the Nationals are “gonna be aggressive” at the deadline according to Rizzo, and they have several players who might fit the Yankees. With the trade market already starting to move – the Rangers brought in old buddy Aroldis Chapman over the weekend – let’s break down what the Nationals have to offer.

3B Jeimer Candelario

2023 stats: .264/.339/.475 (118 wRC+), 11 HR, 20.2 K%, 8.3 BB% in 336 PA

The lowdown: Non-tendered by the Tigers over the winter, the Nationals signed Candelario to a one-year contract worth $5M, and he’ll be a free agent again after this season. The 29-year-old is having his best 162-game season, particularly on defense. Candelario went from -20 DRS (but only -1 OAA) at third base from 2017-22 to +3 DRS and +6 OAA in 2023. For what it’s worth, Jon Morosi says Candelario is available. I mean, duh.

My take: I answered a mailbag question about Candelario recently and I will refer you back to that rather than repeat myself here. The short version is I dig it. Yankees’ third basemen went into Monday’s game hitting .195/.259/.367 (71 wRC+)* and everyone they’ve put there has stunk (they have played great defense though). It would not take much for the switch-hitting Candelario, who has Yankee Stadium friendly pull power from the left side, to be an upgrade. No long-term risk either.

* Give A-Rod a contact at this point. Good grief.

What would it take? Even quality rental bats (think Brandon Drury, David Peralta, and Tommy Pham last year) don’t bring back much more than one or two second tier prospects these days. This is more of a “two guys we aren’t planning to protect from the Rule 5 Draft” trade than a “two prospects we really like” trade. Think Andrés Chaparro and Elijah Dunham types.

LHP Patrick Corbin

2023 stats: 4.84 ERA (4.87 FIP), 15.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, 45.3 GB% in 96.2 IP

The lowdown: Corbin has been merely bad rather than the worst pitcher in baseball this year, though the underlying numbers are all career worsts. He’s neither missing bats nor limiting hard contact, plus he’s owed the remainder of his $24M salary this year and $35M (!) next year. Corbin has a limited no-trade clause, but even if the Yankees are on it, it shouldn’t be an issue. Corbin is a native New Yorker and he wasn’t shy about letting everyone know he would welcome playing for the Yankees when he was a free agent a few years ago.

My take: You could dream on pitching coach Matt Blake working his magic and turning Corbin, 34, into a serviceable No. 4-5 starter or at least a good left-on-left matchup option out of the bullpen, but yeesh. That’s all Corbin is right now: hopes and dreams. There is basically nothing to suggest he can contribute to a contending team.

What would it take? The Yankees could send Josh Donaldson to Washington to offset the 2023 money almost perfectly, though the Nationals would then have to eat a huge chunk of Corbin’s 2024 salary. I’m talking like $30M, and even then they can’t expect to get a decent prospect in return. Donaldson for Corbin plus $30M? It’s not happening. No point in discussing it further.

LF Corey Dickerson

2023 stats: .237/.273/.366 (70 wRC+), 2 HR, 21.2 K%, 5.1 BB% in 99 PA

The lowdown: The Nationals signed several veterans to one-year deals (Candelario, Dickerson, Dominic Smith, etc.) hoping they would play themselves into trade value. Candelario has, Dickerson and Smith have not. Dickerson missed time with a calf strain earlier this season.

My take: I liked Dickerson in the past (I signed him as part of my 2021-22 Offseason Plan), but, at age 34, his bat has slowed and he’s had trouble staying on the field. Maybe you luck into 200 good plate appearances down the stretch. Otherwise there’s nothing to get excited about here. Dickerson’s nearing the end of the line. Jake Bauers is a better player at this point.

What would it take? Next to nothing. Absorb the remainder of Dickerson’s $2.25M salary and I bet you could have him for a Grade-D prospect. Decent chance the Nationals designate him for assignment to clear playing time for a younger outfielder in the second half of the season.

RHP Hunter Harvey

2023 stats: 3.16 ERA (3.53 FIP), 27.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 44.1 GB% in 37 IP (video)

The lowdown: Once a top prospect with the Orioles, Harvey’s injury troubles have been so significant that he threw more than 45 innings in a season just once from 2015-22 (82 innings in 2019). The 28-year-old has stayed healthy and been an effective setup man this season though. Kinda feels like the Nationals should trade Harvey before he gets hurt again.

My take: Harvey throws very hard (fastball averages 98.7 mph but has very low spin) and hitters miss with nearly 40% of their swings against his splitter, so there’s a good foundation here. The Nationals are one of the worst player development organizations in baseball, and that includes little success making pitchers better at the MLB level. Harvey feels like someone who could get to another level with a smarter team, though the long injury history is obviously a red flag.

What would it take? Harvey has 2.5 years of team control remaining but eh, I wouldn’t get too excited about years of control with an injury prone reliever. The Brewers gave up a team top 15 prospect (LHP Antoine Kelly) and a non-top 30 prospect (UTIL Mark Mathias) to get 2.5 years of Matt Bush at last summer’s trade deadline. That seems like a good trade benchmark for Harvey. Buyer beware: Bush allowed 26 runs in 33 innings with Milwaukee and got designated for assignment this past weekend.

RHP Kyle Finnegan

2023 stats: 3.34 ERA (4.54 FIP), 22.4 K%, 9.5 BB%, 44.8 GB% in 35 IP (video)

The lowdown: Finnegan, 32 in September, has been Washington’s go-to high leverage reliever the last three years almost by default. The under-the-hood numbers aren’t particularly good …

… though Finnegan can touch 100 mph and has missed a lot of bats with his slider and splitter, though never at the same time. Last year the slider was his dominant secondary pitch. This year it’s the splitter.

My take: Finnegan seems like the kinda reliever who gets traded to the Astros or Dodgers or Rays (or Yankees) and becomes a monster basically overnight. I can’t stress this enough: the Nationals are very bad at player development and maximizing talent. I certainly don’t have all the answers and I’m not sure Finnegan is a few tweaks away from being great. I’m just saying It wouldn’t surprise me if he is. The Yankees know relievers. If they target Finnegan, I’d trust they have a plan that gets more out of him than Washington has.

What would it take? Finnegan has 2.5 years of control remaining like Harvey. Last year’s Bush trade works as a framework here as well.

OF Lane Thomas

2023 stats: .299/.348/.506 (129 wRC+), 14 HR, 25.9 K%, 5.7 BB% in 351 PA

The lowdown: The Nationals acquired Thomas from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade a few years ago (remember when Lester pitched for the Nationals and Cardinals? weird), and he’s having a really great season. The batting line speaks for itself and Thomas ranks 12th among all outfielders with +2.6 WAR. The Nationals did very well in the Lester trade.

My take: Look, I’m just a big dumb idiot who decided to start a blog one day, but Thomas strikes me as a major regression candidate. He has run single-digit swinging strike rates throughout his career, so Thomas certainly gets his bat on the ball, though a lot of this doesn’t add up:

• .376 BABIP, including .434 vs. LHP
• .299 AVG vs. .259 expected AVG
• .506 SLG vs. .426 expected SLG
• .366 wOBA vs. .320 expected SLG

Statcast’s expected stats aren’t the be-all and end-all, but when the BABIP is that high and the gap between actual and expected stats is that big, it gives me pause. Among the 159 players with at least 250 plate appearances, Thomas has the fourth largest gap between AVG and xAVG, the third largest gap between SLG and xSLG, and the second largest gap between wOBA and xwOBA. He’s outperformed his contact quality significantly.

Furthermore, Thomas doesn’t walk much and he’s a righty hitter who hits a lot of ground balls (45.5%) and pulls everything to the left side of the field (49.8%). Left field is not where you want to hit the ball in Yankee Stadium, plus the Yankees really need a lefty hitter. Another righty would only further add to the lineup imbalance. Thomas also rates as an average-ish defender.

Hitters who pull the ball in the air a lot typically outperform their xSLG (a lot of the Rays guys do this), though Thomas has only pulled 47% of his fly balls and line drives this year. The guys who outperform their xSLG this way are usually over 55%. I have a real hard time believing a hitter with a .376 BABIP and a 16.7 HR/FB% despite meh contact quality will keep this up.

Thomas turns 28 next month and he’s entering what figure to be his most productive seasons, so perhaps the slash line stays the same and the underlying numbers catch up. That said, things don’t really add up here, and Thomas strikes me as a buy high regression candidate. He hit .239/.314/.406 (99 wRC+) from 2021-22. That might be who he really is.

What would it take? Thomas is under team control through 2025 and geez, I’m not sure how to value this guy. The Nationals will market him as an All-Star caliber player and seek a hefty return. It will be a seller’s deadline and they might as well set a high asking price. But there’s limited track record here, and teams know the slash line and under-the-hood numbers don’t add up.

To be clear, I’m not saying Thomas is a bad player or would be a bad addition. He is an imperfect fit as yet another righty bat, though I’m mostly worried about paying All-Star prices for a guy I’m not comfortable expecting to perform at that level moving forward. Thomas gives me 2019 Mike Tauchman vibes. It’s happening and he’s helping his team win, but is this really gonna last?

Anyway, there aren’t any good recent trade benchmarks at Thomas’ service time level. The Trade Values site says:

You could play around and come up with dozens of different prospect combinations to make it work. I will say that, in all their recent seller trades, the Nationals have sought MLB-ready young players (MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz, etc). That said, trading Thomas is a bit different than trading Scherzer, Soto, and Turner. They can’t be quite as picky here.

RHP Jordan Weems

2023 stats: 1.88 ERA (5.31 FIP), 25.9 K%, 11.1 BB%, 44.1 GB% in 14.1 IP (video)

The lowdown: A converted catcher who has bounced from the Red Sox to the Athletics to the Diamondbacks to the Nationals via waivers and minor league contracts the last four years, Weems has elite fastball metrics (velocity, induced vertical break, etc.) and not much else. His control is spotty, his secondary pitches are inconsistent, etc. Weems has been a bit of a stathead sleeper the last few years, so I figured I’d mentioned him.

My take: Weems is 30 and he has 4.5 years of team control remaining, but who really cares about age or team control with middle relievers? This is his final minor league option year, so the Yankees could bring Weems in and stash him in Triple-A as an extra layer of depth. As always, perhaps he’s a few adjustments away from being a real MFer out of the bullpen.

What would it take? Bullpen lottery tickets get traded all the time and the usual return is cash or a low grade prospect. The fastball is interesting, but not interesting enough to give up anything of any real value.

RHP Trevor Williams

2023 stats: 4.34 ERA (5.58 FIP), 16.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 39.2 GB% in 85 IP

The lowdown: Has it really been five years since Williams had that great season with the Pirates (3.11 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 170.2 innings)? Yeah, it has. That was 2018. Williams is on his fourth team since then and he’s an unspectacular low-90s fastball/slider/changeup pitcher. A perfectly fine depth guy who has no business starting important games down the stretch or in October. The 31-year-old is owed the balance of his $6M salary this year plus $7M next year.

My take: Williams is a solid swingman/spot starter type and that’s the role he had with the 101-win Mets last season. He made nine starts (never more than two in a row) and 21 relief appearances (eight times he threw at least three innings in relief), and had a 3.21 ERA (3.88 FIP). That’s the perfect role for him. That said, are you trading a prospect(s) to get him this year and then paying him $7M to do that next year? Nah.

What would it take? Starters with 1.5 years of team control/under contract get traded all the time, but they’re usually guys like Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas. Starters who’ve pitched at a high level and commanded large prospect packages. It’s not often 1.5 years of a back-end starter owed decent money get dealt. Not sure what fair value is here. Also not sure I’d give up more than one or two third tier prospects for Williams given the money and projected role.

* * *

Given my Thomas skepticism, I consider Candelario the best Nationals trade target for the Yankees, then it’s Thomas (at the right price) and miscellaneous relievers. And, of course, any trade for Candelario is predicated on the Yankees moving on from Donaldson. They’ll likely have to look elsewhere to address their left field needs, and if they do take the plunge and get a starting pitcher, I hope they go after someone better than Corbin or Williams.

5. 2023 draft prospect: Georgia HS SS Tai Peete. The 2023 MLB Draft will begin this coming Sunday and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Peete, 18 in August, was an exciting two-way prospect at this time last year, though he hurt his elbow pitching in a showcase event last summer and hasn’t returned to the mound. The nature of the injury was never disclosed, and although Peete played short this spring, it's said he appeared to be holding back on his throws. The elbow is a bit of a mystery. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 104
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 29
• FanGraphs: Outside top 54
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 44
• MLB.com: No. 53

Peete slashed .444/.563/1.074 against good high school competition this spring and he put up good but not top of the class measurables (exit velocity, throw velocity, etc.) at Perfect Game last summer. Sounds like he’s a shortstop only now. Pitching appears to be off the table. Here’s video and here’s MLB.com’s free scouting report:

With an electric left-handed swing and projectable strength and leverage in his 6-foot-2 frame, Peete sports well-above-average raw power. He needs more polish at the plate, as he rarely uses the opposite field and is less effective when he lapses into trying to launch balls as far as possible. He'll also have to prove he can make consistent contact against quality pitching after struggling to do so previously.

One of the better all-around athletes among 2023 high schoolers, Peete has plus speed and had displayed similar arm strength in the past … He has range to both sides at shortstop and should he have to move, he would fit the offensive profile at third base and the defensive profile in center field.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) adds Peete is an “aggressive hitter who will have to tighten his strike-zone discipline, but his hands work inside the ball in an extremely short lefthanded swing with over-the-fence power that should continue to rise as he gets stronger.” Law (subs. req’d) called him “tooled-out” and said “you can dream on the upside here.”

For what it’s worth, both Law (subs. req’d) and Jim Callis say the Yankees have interest in Peete in their latest mock drafts. That tracks considering the Yankees have been connected to just about every notable high school shortstop at some point this spring. Peete is in the second tier of prep shortstops this draft, so I think this is more due diligence. The Yankees typically go for players with more plate discipline than Peete seems to have presently.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)