June 30th, 2023: Germán, Torres, Kiner-Falefa, Stanton, Volpe, Judge, Futures Game, Lee, Mailbag

1. Perfection in Oakland. Last Thursday Domingo Germán became the third Yankee to allow 10 runs and four home runs in a game. This Wednesday Germán became the fourth Yankee to throw a perfect game. He joined two exclusive clubs in a week! Domingo Germán, perfect game thrower. Can't say I had that on my 2023 Yankees bingo card. As a wise man once said, you can’t predict baseball, Suzyn.

“When you think about the history of baseball and how many pitchers have done it, to be part of history now, it’s exciting,” Germán told Greg Joyce, while also revealing an uncle passed away earlier this week. “... Definitely not an easy week. At the same time, I felt like staying here with the team and doing my job, and all the support they provided me allowed me to do this. They gave me the strength and support I needed.”

Here are all 27 of Germán’s remarkably stress-free outs. He went to only two three-ball counts and there was no spectacular defensive play behind him. There didn't need to be. The closest thing was Anthony Rizzo’s backhand grab on Seth Brown’s fifth inning ground ball (video). Per Statcast, Esteury Ruiz’s third inning soft liner (video) was the only ball the Athletics put in play with a hit probability over 50%. There was very little threat of a hit or a walk.

"It was quite different,” Kyle Higashioka told Sonja Chen about catching Germán’s perfect game after catching Corey Kluber’s no-hitter in 2021. “Honestly, I just felt like I was a passenger for this one. Just don't miss the ball and don't mess it up. Domingo was definitely driving the ship, and he had a plan. I mean, we both had a plan, but he had just ultimate confidence in his stuff."

Two weeks ago I noted Germán's new, snappier curveball has been one of the best curveballs in baseball this season, and he used that curveball expertly Wednesday. It was his most used pitch (51 of 99 pitches) and he got 19 of his 27 outs with the curveball, including eight of nine strikeouts. The curve got 12 whiffs on 32 swings (38%) and generated an 86.2 mph average exit velocity. When you have a great pitch, you might as well throw it a lot, and Germán did Wednesday.

“He threw that curveball in any count that he wanted to,” Tony Kemp told Michael Wagaman. “It was spinning differently and moving differently. He put his fastball where he wanted to. Changeup as well. He just kind of mixed them. Got a couple of good swings off him, but no results.”

Germán is the first pitcher born in the Dominican Republic to throw a perfect game and he’s the third pitcher born outside the United States to throw one, joining El Presidente Dennis Martínez (Nicaragua) and King Félix Hernández (Venezuela). Here are a few more nuggets on Germán’s perfect game, the 24th perfect game in baseball history:

• This is of course the fourth perfect game in Yankees history. Germán joins Don Larsen (1956 World Series), David Wells (1998), and David Cone (1999). The last three times the Yankees threw a perfect game, they won the World Series. Plan the parade!
• Higashioka joins Yogi Berra (Larsen), Jorge Posada (Wells), and Joe Girardi (Cone) as Yankees to catch a perfect game. Higashioka (Germán, Kluber), Girardi (Cone, Dwight Gooden), and Berra (Larsen, Allie Reynolds twice) are the only Yankees to catch multiple no-hitters.
• The 11-0 score is the most lopsided perfect game in history. The Giants won Matt Cain’s perfect game 10-0, and Jim Bunning and Cone won theirs 6-0. The average score of all perfect games is 3.5-0. Would you believe there have been seven 1-0 perfect games?
• Hernández threw MLB’s last perfect game on Aug. 15th, 2012. The 3,969 days between Félix and Germán is the longest perfect game drought since 4,755 days between Catfish Hunter (May 8th, 1968) and Len Barker (May 15th, 1981).
• The Athletics had not been no-hit since four Orioles pitchers got them on July 13th, 1991. They had baseball's longest streak of not being no-hit by far. The longest streak now belongs to the Nationals/Expos, who were last no-hit during Cone’s perfect game in 1999. Oakland's streak was nearly a decade longer.
• This is the second time the A’s have been on the wrong end of a perfect game. The first? Cy Young on May 5th, 1904. That was the first perfect game in the Modern Era (since 1900).

The only thing more surprising than Germán throwing a perfect game is the Yankees scoring 11 runs, and I’m only half joking. They scored 11 runs total in their previous five games. Giancarlo Stanton went 2-for-3 with a homer, Isiah Kiner-Falefa reached base three times, and Anthony Volpe continued his post-chicken parm hot streak. For one night everything was, well, perfect. Nicely done, Domingo.

"When he gets rolling like that, he's just so fun to watch at his craft," Aaron Boone told Chen. "He's so good at commanding all of his pitches. His curveball was great tonight. But because his changeup and his fastball were good too, it made that curveball even more special.”

(I’d be lying if I said I felt immaculate vibes Wednesday. Germán’s foreign substance suspension ended a month ago, and he served one of the longest domestic violence suspensions in baseball history a few years ago. Also, the A’s are intentionally bad. No one else is perfect gaming them, but still. They’re so bad it’s kinda depressing.)

2. Weekday thoughts. A few more quick thoughts on the Athletics series: Gleyber Torres has to be banged up. The Yankees had an off-day Monday, he did not start Tuesday, then he was the DH on Wednesday and Thursday. He pinch-hit in the ninth inning Tuesday and stayed in to run the bases, so whatever it is can’t be too bad, but there’s something going on for him to not play the field for four straight days. If Aaron Boone is sitting Torres because of his recent shoddy baserunning, this would be a) the first time he’s done something like that, and b) a weird way to go about it. Methinks Gleyber is not 100% … At 404 feet, Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s home run Thursday is tied for his longest batted ball as a Yankee, and chances are Esteury Ruiz would have robbed it had he been able to keep the glove on his hand. Here’s the list:

1. 404 feet: Homer vs. Hogan Harris (June 29th, 2023) (video)
2. 404 feet: Homer vs. Kevin Gausman (Sept. 26th, 2022) (video)
3. 403 feet: Triple vs. Tyler Wells (May 24th, 2023) (video)
4. 394 feet: Line out vs. George Kirby (May 31st, 2023) (video)
5. 389 feet: Homer vs. Tyler Wells (May 24th, 2023) (video)

Gausman is the only pitcher Kiner-Falefa has taken deep twice, and he tagged Wells for two of his five farthest hit balls as a Yankee. Four of Kiner-Falefa’s top five distances have come since he made a few tweaks to his stance last month. Hmmm. Interesting … Back-to-back days in right field for Giancarlo Stanton, including a day game after a night game. Perhaps not coincidentally, he went 3-for-7 with a double, a homer, and a walk in the two games. Stanton has said (several times) he feels better at the plate when he plays the field because it keeps him active. I say the Yankees should give him more time in the outfield, and manage his workload however necessary. It’s not like they’re running Raines-Bernie-O’Neill out there … And finally, Anthony Volpe is 15-for-43 (.349) with five doubles and a homer since adjusting his batting stance. Only 12 strikeouts too (an acceptable 24.5%). He’s up to .212/.290/.375 (86 wRC+) on the season. Definitely not great, but Volpe looks the best he's looked at the plate all year, I think. Fingers crossed this is just the start of a long and productive stretch.

3. Mining the news. Got a few Yankees-related nuggets to pass along, so let’s get to them now.

Judge voted in as All-Star Game starter

As expected, Aaron Judge was voted in as an All-Star Game starter for the fifth time in his seven full seasons. He’s not going to play in the All-Star Game because of the toe injury (whoever is next up in the voting will take his spot), but he was voted in. Here are the All-Star Game starters. The rest of the rosters will be announced Sunday (then injury replacements will trickle in).

It’s possible, if not likely, Gerrit Cole will be the only other Yankee selected to the All-Star Game. You have to go back to 2013 (Robinson Canó and Mariano Rivera) for the last time the Yankees had only two All-Stars. Before that, it was 1993 (Wade Boggs and Jimmy Key). Anthony Rizzo has the best chance to go to the All-Star Game among the rest of the Yankees. Then I guess it’s Clay Holmes? Judge is in and Cole is a lock. After them, it’s a bit of a toss up.

(Also, Judge played catch earlier this week (video). That’s a low intensity workout, for sure, but it is the first time Judge has done any sorta baseball activity since going on the injured list. Playing light catch qualifies as baby steps. Still, they’re steps.)

Beeter, Jones selected to Futures Game

Geez, I really whiffed on the Futures Game, huh? MLB announced the rosters earlier this week and Clayton Beeter and Spencer Jones will represent the Yankees. Not Jasson Domínguez, as I expected. Not Will Warren or Austin Wells either, who I figured would be next in line. Perhaps the Yankees held Warren out in case he’s needed in the big leagues? Dunno. Beeter and Jones it is.

Not-so-fun fact (or maybe it is a fun fact, I guess it depends how you feel about prospects): the Yankees have traded away one of the players they sent to three of the last four Futures Games. Here’s the list:

• 2022: Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, Ken Waldichuk (traded for Frankie Montas)
• 2021: Jasson Domínguez, Luis Medina (traded for Montas)
• 2020: no game
• 2019: Deivi García
• 2018: Justus Sheffield (traded for James Paxton)

So which one gets traded, Beeter or Jones (or both)? Gotta be Beeter, right? Jones is a recent first round pick and is adored within the organization by scouts and analysts alike. Sorry, Clayton, but them's the breaks. In all seriousness, I’m not against trading prospects at all. I just wish the Yankees had made better trades the last few years.

Beeter was promoted to Triple-A Scranton last week and I suppose the Yankees could promote Jones to Double-A Somerset after the Futures Game, but boy, that would be aggressive. He’s doing well with High-A Hudson Valley (.263/.321/.486 and 117 wRC+) but not dominating, and he’s 1-for-30 with 10 strikeouts in his last eight games. A full year in High-A would be fine.

“I’m confident with how I’m playing. This year is a learning process. There’s a lot of ups and downs and I’m learning about my swing and approach,” Jones told Dan Martin (subs. req’d) earlier this month. “I don’t want to be a guy that strikes out a lot, so we’re working on seeing the ball better and making good swing decisions.”

Yankees have scouted Lee

According to Dan Kurtz, the Yankees (and several other teams) had scouts on hand to watch Kiwoon Heroes center fielder and reigning Korea Baseball Organization MVP Jung-Hoo Lee earlier this month. Back in January the Heroes announced they will post Lee after this season. He turns 25 in August and will not be subject to the international bonus pools.

Lee is having a down year by his standards, slashing .303/.391/.453 (137 wRC+) with six home runs, 12.5% walks, and 6.6% strikeouts. Last year he hit .349/.421/.575 (175 wRC+) with 23 homers and stellar strikeout (5.1%) and walk (10.5%) rates. Those 23 homers are far and away a career high (they’re more than his second and third best home run seasons combined).

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Lee the fourth best non-MLB prospect in the World Baseball Classic behind Japanese stars Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Munetaka Murakami. Here’s his scouting report (here’s WBC video):

The son of Korean baseball legend Jeong Boom Lee, Jung Hoo jumped straight from high school to the KBO and set a new rookie record for hits en route to winning the rookie of the year award. He quickly blossomed into the league’s biggest star and won the KBO MVP award last season. Lee is a high-contact hitter with a fast lefthanded swing and a preternatural feel for the barrel. He consistently squares balls up and drives them on a line to all fields, using his plus speed to rack up doubles and triples. His lean build and flat swing path make him a contact hitter, but he has enough strength to turn on inside pitches and drive them over the right field fence. Lee has the speed and athleticism to stay in center field and is playable at all three outfield positions, although his fringe-average arm strength would be stretched in right field. He has a chance to be an everyday center fielder who hits for average near the top of a lineup in MLB and is expected to come over after the 2023 season.

A 25-year-old left-handed hitting center fielder with contact and on-base skills, and some power? The Yankees need exactly that. Whether Lee’s skills will translate to MLB is another matter, as is the money. The upcoming free agent class positively stinks and a lot of teams will have money to spend with few places to (wisely) spend it. The bidding war for Lee could get crazy.

Also, I feel obligated to note the Yankees scouting Lee doesn’t actually mean much. They scout everyone. The Yankees could have serious interest in Lee and may be planning to pursue him aggressively, but the fact they’ve scouted him doesn’t tell us that. They’re doing their due diligence. It would be more notable if they weren’t scouting him. I’m sure we’ll talk about Lee a bunch in the coming weeks and months. Still too much season to play to worry about him now.

(In related news, the Yankees had a scout watching Shota Imanaga of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan earlier this week, according to Yakyu Cosmopolitan. The 29-year-old lefty has a 2.28 ERA with 81 strikeouts and eight walks in 75 innings this year. I don’t know much about him other than he’s on the small side (5-foot-10 and 176 lbs.) and has a low-90s fastball. Here’s video.)

FCL Yankees hammer Manoah

Earlier this month the Blue Jays sent struggling starter Alek Manoah down to the rookie Florida Complex League for a reset. He spent three weeks throwing bullpens and working on stuff in the team’s pitching lab, then, this past Tuesday, Manoah returned to game action. Coincidentally, he faced the FCL Yankees. Manoah’s line: 2.2 IP, 10 H, 11 R, 11 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 HR (box score).

SS Roderick Arias, my No. 13 prospect, took Manoah deep, and the Associated Press says it “cleared the approximately 30-foot center-field batter’s eye,” so yeah, it was a bomb. 2B Keiner Delgado, one of my Not Top 30 Prospects, went 3-for-3 with a double against Manoah. A lineup of 17-19 year olds hung 11 runs on last year’s third place finisher in the Cy Young voting. Yeesh.

“You don't have a scouting report on anyone,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Ethan Diamandas about Manoah’s rough rookie ball outing. “The kids, they're in a win-win situation because they're amped up. I think sometimes you get Major League guys who aren't as amped up in certain situations.”

(As far as I know there is no video of Arias’ dinger, otherwise I’d happily pass it along. Alas.)

There are two possibilities here. One, Manoah treated it like a Spring Training game and worked on something specific, like his mechanics or landing his slider for a strike. If he did the same thing over and over and over because he was working on something specific, okay, yeah, you can see how an 11-run outing can still be considered a productive day, right?

Or two, Manoah treated it like a competitive game and took the mound trying to get outs, and instead got hammered by a bunch of teenagers. In that case: lol wtf lmao. For what it’s worth, Scott Mitchell says people at the game had nothing positive to report, and Manoah got hit pretty hard. Doesn’t sound like he was working on something specific. He was just bad.

“The things that we were talking about in terms of strike-throwing, delivery, tempo, velocity, was all positive,” Schneider told Keegan Matheson. “The rest of the stuff, you can take it with a grain of salt. You factor today into it, but we’re very pleased with the work that he’s put in. Results aside today, the stuff that we’ve been talking about, he’s going in the right direction.”

Sometimes good players just stop being good. It happened with Ricky Romero a decade ago, so the Blue Jays know that well (Romero did battle knee trouble though). I don’t know what’s wrong with Manoah. Not my problem. I’m just doing my bloggerly duty and passing along word of a recent FCL Yankees game. In conclusion:

4. 2023 draft prospect: Illinois HS OF Dillon Head. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Head, 18, hails from the Chicago suburbs and he’s made big gains over the last year. He's gotten stronger and dropped his exaggerated leg kick, and now appears more ready for pro ball. Last summer Head was thought to be better off following through on his commitment to Clemson, and developing there for three years. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 34
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 22
• FanGraphs: No. 14
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 49
• MLB.com: No. 22

Last summer Head was just about the fastest player at Perfect Game, and he scored well on things like throw velocity, exit velocity, and swing efficiency. He hit .486/.565/.917 this spring in limited action (his high school only plays 25 games) against weak competition in the Chicago suburbs. Here’s video and a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Scouts marvel at Head's ability to spray the ball around the field and admire his “hit it where it’s pitched” approach. He projects to be a line drive/gap bat at the next level, though he does possess strength to the pull side, and can leave the yard when he gets extended. He does operate with a bit of a bat wrap in his swing, but enough bat speed is there to overcome it right now. A 70-grade runner, Head gets out of the box quickly and should be a stolen base threat and high-BABIP player. He covers plenty of ground in center field and has above-average or plus arm strength with good accuracy as well.

Head, a left-handed hitter, has “game-altering speed,” per FanGraphs. They add he is “adept at altering his posture through contact to match pitch location … he can dip and scoop low pitches or straighten his back and impact high ones with power.” A quality defensive center fielder with speed and an adaptable swing could make for a nice little ballplayer.

The Yankees have gone for up-the-middle players the last few years, though they also targeted bat-first players with loud ball-tracking data. Spencer Jones, Trey Sweeney, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells were all bat over glove. I’m not sure Head fits that mold. I do know he’s getting a lot of buzz in the 20-30 range, right where the Yankees pick, so we’ll see.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dan asks: Will the Cardinals be deadline sellers? How far do they have to fall for Arenado to be available? What would it take and would you do it?

Sam asks: With the mediocrity of both central divisions and the expanded postseason, it feels as though there are fewer potential sellers than in years past. One team I'm keeping an eye on is the Cardinals. Do you see the Yankees matching up with them for a trade for one of their many outfielders? They've obviously done business before, so there's a relationship there I guess. Is Dylan Carlson the move or does he not move the needle enough? Do the Yankees try to put together a package of prospects to try for Nootbaar?

Going to lump these two together. We’ll see the Cardinals this weekend and, recent “hot” streak aside (they’re 6-4 in their last 10 games), they’re quite bad. Bad enough that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated they will sell at the deadline. Not an outright fire sale. More like a 2016 Yankees-esque retool. They’re gonna try to contend in a weak division in 2024.

Starting with Nolan Arenado, he’s obviously still very good (.273/.321/.485 and 118 wRC+ despite a slow start in April), though he’s 32 now, and he’s showing signs of decline on both sides of the ball. Arenado is one of the five (maybe three?) best defensive third basemen ever, but the eye test and the numbers aren’t great this year. His reaction time seems to have slowed down a bit.

As good as he still is, I feel like Arenado is exactly the kinda player the Yankees should avoid. They don’t need another guy entering his mid-30s who is owed big money ($79M from 2024-26 once you factor in what the Rockies are paying him) and showing signs of decline. Maybe the Cardinals will eat some money, but then you have to give up better prospects to get him. I dunno. Not sure another aging star is the solution. (Also, Arenado has a full no-trade clause. Does he even want to come to the Yankees?)

The Cardinals seem most likely to shop their free agents-to-be and also Tyler O’Neill, who is currently on the injured list. St. Louis has more outfielders than roster spots and O’Neill is the a) oldest, b) most expensive, and c) closest to free agency. He also seems to have fallen out of favor with the front office and coaching staff. They had issues earlier this year. Another swing and miss righty isn’t what the Yankees need anyway.

St. Louis has seven rentals to shop, though Adam Wainwright isn’t going anywhere in his final season, so it’s really six rentals. In order of how likely the Yankees are to acquire them, I’d rank those six rentals like so:

1. RHP Jordan Hicks: 100 mph sinker? That’s certainly Yankees-like. Hicks had a brutal start to the season, so much so that there was speculation he might get designated for assignment, but he’s been lights out since moving to the first base side of the rubber a few weeks ago.

2. RHP Jack Flaherty: The Yankees are willing to accept injury risk to get upside and Flaherty is a high upside pitcher who frequents the injured list. He’s been pretty meh this season, which will keep the price down, and it’s not like the Yankees would need him to come in and be an ace. Or even the No. 2 or 3.

3. LHP Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery might be the best starting pitcher available at the deadline and I just don’t see the Yankees giving up a prospect package of any significance for a starter. They already have the core of their rotation (Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, etc.). They need a depth guy more than a cornerstone and Montgomery would be overqualified as a depth guy. (Obviously there’s no such thing as too many good starters. Just doesn’t seem like the Yankees will commit many trade resources to the rotation.)

4. RHP Chris Stratton. Spin rate setup guy. An upgrade over the Albert Abreu and Ron Marinaccio roster spots more than an unquestioned member of the Circle of Trust™. Maybe the Yankees will use Marinaccio as part of a package to get a left fielder or third baseman? In that case Stratton could be a replacement.

5. SS Paul DeJong: The hard-hit ability is good and so is the defense, but DeJong hasn’t hit in four years now. Not sure he would do much to improve the third base situation (he hasn’t played third since 2016 anyway). If Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza get hurt between now and the trade deadline, then yeah, DeJong would make sense. That’s Volpe and Peraza, not Volpe or Peraza. Both would have to get hurt to push the Yankees into the shortstop market.

6. RHP Drew VerHagen. A perfectly cromulent last guy in the bullpen. Maybe I’m underrating him and the Yankees can turn VerHagen and his mid-90s sinker into the next Clay Holmes.

The guy to get from the Cardinals is Lars Nootbaar, who’s hitting .260/.364/.373 (108 wRC+) this year. He’s 25, he’s a lefty hitter with on-base and contact skills, the ball-tracking data suggests there’s more power in there, and he’s a good defender. And he’s very likable and personable. Nootbaar fills a need on offense and in the field, and he’s under control through 2027.

I’d do it. Jasson Domínguez is at least a year away from helping the Yankees and likely 2-3 years away from being a legit impact player. Clarke Schmidt is on a nice run now, but you have to give something to get something. That’s an easy yes for me. Nootbaar is an instant and significant upgrade, and does Schmidt even start a postseason game, realistically?

For what it’s worth, I’ve heard the Cardinals aren’t discussing Nootbaar at all. Just their rentals, O’Neill, and Steven Matz, and apparently the market is good. There aren’t many clear cut sellers and the bad teams (Athletics, Rockies, etc.) don’t have much to sell. The Cardinals could do well at the deadline. Unless they make Nootbaar available, I’m not sure there’s a trade match here for anything other than miscellaneous arms (Hicks, Flaherty, etc.).

Daniel asks: Cashman, historically at least, does not have many trade misses. But how bad does the Gallo trade look now, with Ezequiel Duran’s huge breakout?

Duran is hitting .322/.364/.555 (154 wRC+) and the Rangers have stuck him in left field because their infield is full and they want to keep his bat in the lineup. The 38.5% chase rate and .396 BABIP suggest there’s a correction coming, but Duran’s always hit the ball very hard, which he is doing now against MLB pitching. He’s a better defender and more athletic than I expected too.

It’s not a stretch to say Duran is better than every infielder on the Yankees’ roster right now. Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu look old, Anthony Rizzo is morphing into James Loney (singles and defense), Gleyber Torres has plateaued, and Anthony Volpe is going through rookie growing pains. At minimum, Duran would be their best option at third base.

(Is it fair to expect Duran to have developed into this player with the Yankees? His entire career outlook changes with the trade. He worked with different coaches, got different playing time opportunities, etc. Plus the Yankees haven’t knocked it out of the park with young hitters the last few years. Decent chance Duran is currently repeating Triple-A had he remained a Yankee.)

I don’t mind Duran doing so well with the Rangers. Good for him. I’m annoyed Joey Gallo so thoroughly sucked with the Yankees, and did not solve the problem (left field) he was brought in to solve. Gallo was so bad the Yankees had to trade three more prospects to replace him at the next year’s deadline. The Yankees traded seven prospects to get a .179/.299/.376 (~93 wRC+) line and +1.2 WAR out of Gallo and Andrew Benintendi. Good grief.

Gallo made the Gallo trade look plenty bad before Duran broke out this season. Duran having the season he’s having while basically every Yankees infielder stinks is just salt in the wound. This era of Yankees baseball is defined by misses. Misses in the postseason, misses in trades, misses on (more accurately passes on) elite talent in free agency, misses with young players expected to contribute. Just one miss after another, and the Gallo deal is certainly among them.

Brian asks: Stanton has 4.5 years remaining on his contract and $144 million (though the Marlins are responsible for $30M). Assuming he is washed (which is not certain), would this be the longest commitment of dead money washed veteran the Yankees have ever had?

Hopefully these last two games are the start of something, but the fact of the matter is Giancarlo Stanton has hit .208/.289/.450 (107 wRC+) since last Opening Day. There’s at least some Chris Davis 2.0 worry here. Stanton’s strikeout and contact rates are right in line with the rest of his career, there’s no trouble there, plus he’s still crushing the ball. The larger issues are he’s stopped walking, and he’s now an easily defended dead pull ground ball hitter:

• Walk rate: 6.3% (career 11.5%)
• Ground ball rate: 47.6% (career 42.9%)
• Pull rate: 48.8% (career 42.1%)

This is easy for me to say, but Stanton really needs to focus on right field. He’s strong enough to hit home runs that way (and not just because of the short porch) and his best seasons were the seasons he used the entire field. And it’s not like I’m asking Stanton to do something he’s never done before. He’s done it before, but he’s gotten away from it, and I’d like him to get back to it.

As for the money, the Yankees owe Stanton $98M in real dollars from 2024-27 (once you factor in what the Marlins are paying), though his luxury tax hit is a more manageable $22M per year. The $98M would be the most money any team has ever eaten to cut a player loose, and it’s not close. The dead money leaderboard:

1. Josh Hamilton: Angels paid $63M after sending him back to the Rangers
2. Pablo Sandoval: Red Sox ate $48M when they released him
3. Rusney Castillo: Collected roughly $46M while buried in Triple-A with Red Sox
4. Several players in the $25M to $30M range (Carl Crawford, Aaron Hicks, Alex Rodriguez, etc.)

I guess technically Castillo wasn’t dead money because he was an active player in Triple-A, but obviously the Red Sox weren’t playing him that much to fill a roster spot in Pawtucket. Castillo was dead money, for all intents and purposes. A-Rod had roughly $27M remaining on his deal (Hicks slightly under that). That’s the most the Yankees have eaten to move on from a player.

The Yankees need to get younger and more athletic – they’re so freaking slow! – and Stanton is the opposite of those two things. I love the guy, but barring a monster second half, releasing him in the offseason has to be a consideration. And if he goes to the Dodgers next season and they revive his bat, so be it. Releasing Stanton is so very unlikely, of course. I could things playing out like this:

• 2023: Stays the rest of the year, has a few spurts, but otherwise he isn’t as productive as the Yankees need him to be.
• 2024: The Yankees keep him and hope a new hitting coach (because someone will be scapegoated and it won’t be Aaron Boone or Brian Cashman) fixes him.
• 2025: They begin the process of cutting back on his playing time in the first half, then release him in the middle of the season (and eat about $50M).

Stanton’s a sunk cost. The Yankees are paying him that $98M whether Hal Steinbrenner likes it or not. The real cost is the roster spot. The Yankees can either pay Stanton to continue to be unproductive, or they can pay him to go away and use the roster spot on a better player. The fact they still haven’t moved on from Josh Donaldson leads me to believe they are nowhere close to moving on from Stanton.

I love Giancarlo, when he’s hot there’s nothing quite like it, but he turns 34 in November and his contract was always going to age poorly. The Yankees knew that when they made the trade and were willing to take the bad at the end to get the good upfront. Hopefully Stanton gets himself straightened out, that would be ideal, but this has gone on long enough now that you have to be at least a little bit worried.

Frank asks: If given the opportunity to only sign one offensive upgrade over the next season or two. Would Soto or Ohtani be a better fit for this team? I know the answer seems obvious with Ohtani being the freak that he is, but Soto can play the field, is younger, gets on base more, and whether we like it or not, will probably be cheaper.

It’s Shohei Ohtani. This is a no lose situation, they’re both awesome, but it’s Ohtani. Figure out a way to make the six-man rotation and DH situation work. We’re not splitting atoms here. It won’t be too difficult. Ohtani and Juan Soto are comparable hitters …

2023 Ohtani: .309/.389/.659 (182 wRC+) in 360 PA
2023 Soto: .267/.421/.491 (153 wRC+) in 349 PA

2021-23 Ohtani: .275/.369/.577 (154 wRC+) in 1,665 PA
2021-23 Soto: .275/.430/.492 (154 wRC+) in 1,667 PA

… who go about it in slightly different ways (Soto is an OBP guy, Ohtani is a power guy), though they are both top tier hitters. I’d be happy with either. But one guy is also an ace pitcher! So give me him. Even at $60M a year, Ohtani’s a bargain. Elite players (hitter or pitcher) go for $40M a year in free agency now. Ohtani is both rolled into one, plus his marketability is unmatched.

The best argument for Soto over Ohtani is age. Ohtani turns 29 next week and Soto turns 25 in October. How many more years is Ohtani an elite hitter and an elite pitcher, or even elite at one and above-average at the other? There’s a decent chance Soto hasn’t even hit his peak yet. Sign him as a free agent in two years and you get his entire prime. You’re buying the end of Ohtani’s peak.

Given where the Yankees are now – trying to maximize Gerrit Cole’s and Aaron Judge’s prime – they should sign Ohtani this winter rather than wait for Soto to become a free agent in two years. Every season is precious, man. You don’t get these years back. Get Ohtani now and pair him with Cole and Judge while they’re all at the height of their powers. No more kicking the can down the road.

Mike asks: You mentioned in an earlier post that the Yankees push Peraza’s free agency back a year if they wait a bit, I think you said that would happen in late June. Is that coming up soon? Has Peraza been at third at all recently in AAA? With DJ and Donaldson having such offensive struggles this year, I’m guessing I’m not the only one wondering if you think the Yankees will shuffle the infield in the coming weeks. What do you think will happen? Will they cut Donaldson and give Peraza the lion share of time at third? Will they demote Volpe, even just for a bit to get him on track? What do you think our infield will look like in September?

My unofficial math says Oswald Peraza has to spend 55 days in the minors this season to push his free agency back from the 2028-29 offseason to the 2029-30 offseason. This is Day 93 of the season and Peraza spent 35 days in the big leagues (April 16th to May 20th) between the active roster and the injured list earlier this year. 93 - 35 = 58, so yeah, it looks like Peraza has been down long enough to push back free agency.

As for third base, Peraza has played it just twice in Triple-A this season (May 27th and June 8th). He’s played more games at second base (four). I don't get it. It feels like the Yankees have decided Peraza and Anthony Volpe are the middle infield of the future, and any deviation from that plan is not allowed. The need – the glaring need – is that third base right now, but nope, Peraza isn’t getting work there. I just do not understand.

Cutting Josh Donaldson and putting Peraza at third base is such an easy move. And if the Yankees don’t want to go that far, they can put DJ LeMahieu at third and use Peraza in LeMahieu’s usual infield rover role, only with shortstop instead of first base. There is a very easy and very obvious way to get this touted young player the Yankees claim to love into the big league lineup, and yet he remains in Triple-A. Shrug.

Sal asks: How is Carlos Narvaez not on the prospect radar? Feels to me like a 24 yr old, newly promoted to AAA Catcher, putting up an .850 OPS and known for defense, would be on a team's Top 30.

Fun fact: Narvaez led the Yankees in innings caught in Spring Training. He caught 70 Grapefruit League innings because Kyle Higashioka was away at the World Baseball Classic and every other catcher in big league camp missed time with injury. Narvaez even hit a walk-off home run one day (video). Remember that? That was a pretty cool moment by March standards.

Anyway, Narvaez hit .194/.327/.383 (98 wRC+) with 11 homers in 300 plate appearances with High-A Hudson Valley last season. He started this season with Double-A Somerset, moved up to Triple-A Scranton after only 16 games, and he’s hitting .266/.425/.415 (121 wRC+) with strong contact quality numbers in 120 plate appearances with the RailRiders:

• Average exit velocity: 89.1 mph (Triple-A average: 87.8 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 44.3% (Triple-A average: 37.5%)
• Barrel rate: 21.4% (Triple-A average: 17.7%)

Narvaez has walked as much as he’s struck out (20.0% each) with Scranton, though that’s an outlier compared to the rest of his career and likely a product of the automatic strike zone. He’s been a 12% walk rate and 30% strikeout rate guy at other stops. The power has always been there though. Narvaez was always said to have legit juice in his bat.

Because of the automatic strike zone, Triple-A Statcast tells us nothing useful about Narvaez’s framing skills, though he has been regarded as a good defender with a strong arm (albeit with an inconsistent release). Catchers are often late bloomers and perhaps Narvaez is just now figuring things out. He’s going to be a minor league free agent after the season, so if he keeps this up, Narvaez will find himself on someone’s 40-man roster.

There’s a good case for Narvaez being one of the Yankees' top 30 prospects. The back of my top 30 is a bunch of longshot Single-A kids and a reliever who got hurt before he got to Spring Training. Even if Narvaez tops out as a dingers-and-defense backup, that’s useful. Position scarcity and proximity to the big leagues give Narvaez a better chance to play in MLB than most players in the system.

Paul asks: In today's (Sunday's) game, Boone pinch ran for Trevino on first base with 1 out, down 1, in the 8th inning, with the trying run on second. Why did he wait until there was 1 out, instead of doing it as soon as Jose got in base with no outs?

I don’t have a good answer for this but I have seen it (waiting until there’s one out to pinch-run) enough around the league to know it’s A Thing, not just a dumb Aaron Boone thing. I assume it’s because you’re gonna be more conservative with no outs? With no outs, you’re not gonna send Jose Trevino home from first on a double. You’re gonna hold him up at third and give yourself three chances to get him home, so you don’t have to make the pinch-runner move yet. With one out, you have to be a little more aggressive to score that run, so you pinch-run. Sound plausible? I really don’t know. This is one of those things that probably has a perfectly reasonable explanation that I’m just not seeing.

David asks: Forgive the heresy, but how would a split season format change the competitive picture in the bigs? Trades, tanking, to buy or to sell…speculate a little on this alternate universe.

Every minor league uses the split season format now (the first and second half division winners qualify for the postseason) because it’s most fair. The turnover rate with minor league rosters is very high – Triple-A Scranton used 29 position players and 49 pitchers last year – so they reset everyone’s record at the end of June and give the new crop of players a shot at the postseason.

If a team wins the division title in both halves, the team with the second best full season record gets the second postseason spot. To make my life easy, I’m going to use the All-Star break to delineate the first and second halves even though it’s not the mathematical halfway point. These were the division winners last year:

• First half: Yankees, Twins, Astros, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers
• Second half: Blue Jays, Guardians, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers

The Mariners would have gotten the second AL West spot and the Padres would have gotten the second NL West spot. The Rays and eventual NL champion Phillies drop out of the actual postseason and the Twins and Brewers take it in their place in the split season postseason, respectively. Otherwise 10 of the 12 postseason teams are the same. How MLB would have seeded everyone, I do not know.

For MLB, the upside of the split season format is giving so many teams (think this year’s Mets and Padres) a second chance at the postseason, which would theoretically increase interest in the league. You’d have two sets of postseason races! We’d be in crunch time for the AL Central and NL West right now, and then we’d get to do it all again in a few months.

The downsides are numerous though. First and foremost, eliminating the Wild Cards means no longer can a third or fourth place team make the postseason. Right now the four best teams in each league are guaranteed to be in the postseason, regardless of division. With the split season format, the best team in the league isn’t even guaranteed to make it! Remember the 1981 NL West?

First Half
1. Dodgers: 36-21
2. Reds: 35-21 (0.5 GB)
3. Astros: 28-29 (8 GB)
4. Braves: 25-29 (9.5 GB)
5. Giants: 27-32 (10 GB)
6. Padres: 23-33 (12.5 GB)

Second Half
1. Astros: 33-20
2. Reds: 31-21 (1.5 GB)
3. Giants: 29-23 (3.5 GB)
4. Dodgers: 27-26 (6 GB)
5. Braves: 25-27 (7.5 GB)
6. Padres: 18-36 (15.5 GB)

The players went on strike for nearly two months in the middle of the 1981 season and MLB used the split season postseason format that year. The Dodgers won the first half NL West title and the Astros won the second half NL West title and went to the postseason while the Reds went 66-42, had the best record in baseball (!), and missed the postseason. Not great!

Second, six teams would clinch a postseason berth in mid July, so what would they have to play for the rest of the season? You’d have to incentivize first half division winners somehow. Maybe use second half record (or full season record) to determine Wild Card Series byes? I dunno, but you’d have to do something, otherwise you’ve just created a lot of meaningless baseball.

Third, the split season format would likely kill the trade market. The Cardinals, for example, are ready to sell right now, but with a split season format they would still have a chance to reach the postseason in that weak division. There would be very few clear sellers. We’re talking the very worst teams (Athletics, Royals, etc.) and that’s it. It would be an extreme sellers market, and GMs would rather do nothing than pay $1.10 for a $1 player, so a lot of nothing would happen.

MLB will push for (and probably get) a 14-team postseason in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement but I don’t think anyone wants the split season format. Split season is good and fair in the minors. In MLB, it should only be used in unusual cases like 1981. The unintended consequences, something MLB excels at, would be numerous. Nobody actually wants this, right? Right.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)