June 26th, 2023: Judge, Donaldson, Little Things, Hamilton, Rodón, Volpe, Schmidt, McKinney, Prospects

Happy 11th anniversary to one of my all-time favorite dumb plays: Dewayne Wise’s phantom catch (video). Wise flipped into the stands to make the catch along the left field foul line, except he didn’t make the catch. He came out of the stands with an empty glove and the umpire called Jack Hannahan out anyway. A fan a good 10 feet away picked up the ball:

That was before the days of expanded replay, so the call stood, and it’s not like it was a critical play anyway. It had no real bearing on the outcome of the game. Still, it is one of the top silly moments of the RAB era. Here now is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon since the Yankees have yet another off-day. It’s their last one until the All-Star break, so enjoy it.

1. Judge’s toe. In the least surprising news ever, Aaron Judge’s toe injury is more severe than the Yankees let on. Over the weekend Judge confirmed he has a torn ligament in his toe and he still feels pain when he walks. Aaron Boone said he expects his star right fielder to return this season but wouldn’t commit to that.

“That's an absolute. I can't say that about anyone. But yeah, I feel like he's going to be back,” Boone told Bryan Hoch about Judge returning this season. “He can do a little bit more each and every day, but not to the point where he's running or doing full baseball stuff yet. We've just got to continue to wait and get him there. He's obviously as tough as they come. He wants to be back out there. We'll just keep trying to get him healed and treated, and hope for the best.”

To be fair, the Yankees put Judge on the injured list with a “great right toe sprain” and a sprain is by definition a tear. Judge received two platelet rich-plasma injections (one each in two different ligaments) and you get those when the tear is minor enough that you can avoid surgery. But still, it’s a ligament tear, and ligament tears take a while to heal regardless of whether they’re in your toe or your elbow.

But why do the Yankees downplay every injury? It’s been more than three weeks since Judge got hurt and we went from he might avoid the injured list to we hope he can be back after the minimum 10 days to he could start baseball activities this weekend to I can’t 100% commit to him returning this season. Why are we always strung along and given small bits of increasingly worse news? Just tell us “we don’t know when he’s coming back” when that’s the prognosis. We’re adults. We can handle bad news.

The Yankees have whittled their credibility down to zero when it comes to injuries and, ultimately, that doesn’t matter. Fans have no real power to influence anything and us being mad isn't a call to action. But still, we can’t trust the Yankees with injuries, regardless of whether they say someone is day-to-day or going to miss two months. I’m sure there’s a reason they’re so cagey – maybe they don’t want to hurt ticket sales by admitting Judge will be out long-term? – but it’s so frustrating.

"I don’t think too many people in here have torn a ligament in their toe,” Judge told Hoch. “If it was a quad, we’d have a better answer. If it’s an oblique or hamstring, we have answers and a timeline for that. With how unique this injury is, and it being my back foot – which I push off of and run off of – it’s a tough spot.”

So the Yankees will be without their captain and best player for who knows how long. They were six games out in the AL East and 2.5 games up on a Wild Card spot the day Judge got hurt. Now they’re 9.5 back in the division and one game up on a Wild Card spot. All things considered, I could be worse, though the stonks are definitely down:

The emotional reaction is sell sell sell, but that ain’t happening, nor should it. Judge will be back at some point (probably) and Gerrit Cole is having his best 162-game season as a Yankee. A postseason berth is there for the taking. The Yankees have several needs leading up to the trade deadline – they need a starter, a third baseman, and another bat at minimum – and there’s a way to buy without gutting the system. I just hope this deadline goes better than the last two.

Ultimately, the Yankees will only be able to do so much at the deadline. The roster isn’t getting overhauled, not now or in the offseason. Now that it’s 100% clear Judge is not particularly close to returning, the veterans have to get their act together. The updated June numbers:

• Josh Donaldson: .125/.204/.438 (68 wRC+) in 54 PA
• DJ LeMahieu: .174/.191/.348 (40 wRC+) in 47 PA
• Anthony Rizzo: .167/.286/.212 (46 wRC+) in 77 PA
• Giancarlo Stanton: .121/.215/.241 (24 wRC+) in 65 PA
• Gleyber Torres: .183/.256/.352 (68 wRC+) in 78 PA

Everyone except Donaldson has kinda sorta maybe looked better lately? LeMahieu had a few loud doubles this weekend, Stanton drove in an insurance run Sunday, and Rizzo’s been on base 12 times in the last six games*. Donaldson’s probably a lost cause, but if the other four produce like we expect them to produce (even when adjusting for age), the Yankees will be okay until Judge returns and reinforcements arrive. Not great, but okay.

* Did you know Rizzo hasn't hit a home run since May 20th? I knew it’s been a while but I didn’t realize it was that long ago. May 20th was the middle game of the Reds series. It was so long ago that Ben Rortvedt started behind the plate, and he doesn’t even exist.

Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney, and the pitching staff can only take the Yankees so far. They need (and I’m sure will get) help at the deadline, though that’s weeks away. Bottom line, either the veteran hitters will hit and the Yankees will be okay, or they won’t and the Yankees won’t. I hope Judge gets healthy and returns soon, but this will be a lengthy absence, and it’s exposing the insufficiency of the roster around him. Judge’s MVP case has managed to get stronger while on the injured list.

“The reality is we're without him right now. We've got to find a way to get it done,” Boone told Hoch. “We have the people in there to get it done. We've just got to do a better job right now of putting pressure on the opposing pitchers and defense.”

2. Weekend thoughts. Taking two of three from a very good Rangers team despite getting so little offense is a heck of a good weekend. The pitching, Billy McKinney, and scattered timely hits from others have kept the Yankees afloat the last week or two. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few days.

The beginning of the end for Donaldson?

Three straight games on the bench for Josh Donaldson. Aaron Boone hinted at sitting Donaldson for a few games so he could work on stuff behind the scenes, similar to DJ LeMahieu early last week, but Donaldson is unpopular in a way LeMahieu is not. This feels like an outright benching, or at least a concerted effort to hide Donaldson from the vicious boos at Yankee Stadium.

“(We were) in a long conversation. Just him and I talking. I’m sorry it spilled over. We’re good. We’re on the same page,” Boone told Bryan Hoch after being a half-hour late to his pregame media session Sunday. Boone’s tardiness led to speculation a Donaldson DFA was imminent, though it would have been unusual timing, and there was no call up in the clubhouse to take his roster spot. So, he remains.

When the Yankees cut ties with a highly paid veteran (Aaron Hicks, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, etc.), it has followed the same four-step process almost every time:

1. The player remains a regular and is painfully unproductive.
2. He slides into a platoon role and plays occasionally.
3. His playing time is cut further and he barely plays.
4. He gets released.

(It didn’t play out that way with Jacoby Ellsbury because he spent the entire 2018-19 seasons on the injured list before being released in Nov. 2019. He did lose playing time late in 2017 though. Ellsbury started only four of the team’s 13 postseason games that year and mostly pinch-ran.)

The last few days have felt like a rapid acceleration of that process. Donaldson started Thursday and went 0-for-3 with an error, then pinch-struck-out Friday, then got benched Saturday and Sunday. He went from starter to playing occasionally to benched in three days. And this all happened only a few days after Brian Cashman said the Yankees want to give Donaldson “some runway here where he gets consistent at-bats” to get on track. The words don’t match the actions.

“He’s going to play a lot. I know there’s a lot in there,” Boone told Hoch on Sunday. “I just want to get him going because I know he can be a key figure for us.”

The Yankees start a six-game road trip Tuesday and we’ll see how much Donaldson plays in Oakland and St. Louis. Maybe this weekend really was nothing more than giving Donaldson a chance to work on a few things behind the scenes and/or an effort to keep him away from booing fans (similar to Hicks at the end of his tenure).

I could be wrong – I thought Hicks was on the verge of being cut like five times before the Yankees finally pulled the plug – but it does feel like Donaldson’s days are numbered. He has nothing to offer other than his glove and he’s gone after the season one way or another. He’s an easy player to drop and getting benched is often a sign the end is near. Unless Donaldson mashes on this road trip, his days as a Yankee feel numbered.

(Donaldson told Hoch that Sunday's pregame chat with Boone was just “a lot of baseball stuff, personal stories” but I don’t buy that for a second. Props to Donaldson for not saying something stupid and making this a bigger deal than it needs to be – one of Boone's strengths is making sure stuff like this stays in the clubhouse and doesn't become a headache – but there’s no chance Boone was 30 minutes late to his pregame press conference because he was exchanging war stories with Donaldson.)

The little things (that are a big problem)

I am increasingly in awe of how sloppy and mistake prone the Yankees have been this year. I’m not even mad. I’m oddly curious to see how far they can take it. It’s worse than in previous years, right? And it’s not like they’re playing aggressively and pushing the envelope, and sometimes it just doesn’t work out. Every single game – Every. Single. Game. – the Yankees screw something up. They have to overcome the other team and their own dopey mistakes.

The Yankees are remarkably bad at the little things, so I went into the Rangers series planning to chronicle their careless mistakes. They gave me plenty Friday night alone. Look at all this from that one game (listed chronologically).

Schmidt’s “wild pitch”: It was scored a wild pitch but it should’ve been a passed ball on Jose Trevino, who straight up missed a fastball and allowed Adolis García (video) to reach on a strike three, extending the first inning. The Rangers didn’t score and it forced Clarke Schmidt to throw only another six pitches, so it wasn’t that costly, but still. It was the kinda passed ball that would’ve sent John Flaherty into a five-minute rant had Gary Sánchez been behind the plate. When you’re a defense-first guy hitting .220/.259/.311 (57 wRC+) like Trevino, you gotta catch fastballs for strike three, my guy.

Three first pitch grounders: This was the inning that broke me. I turned off the television and got something to eat after this, then I went crawling back to the Yankees an inning later because I’m a sucker. In the second inning Anthony Rizzo got hit by a pitch and DJ LeMahieu doubled to left to give the Yankees runners at second and third with no outs. Here’s what followed:

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 70.6 mph first pitch ground out
• Billy McKinney: 52.2 mph first pitch ground out (run scored)
• Jose Trevino: 55.9 mph first pitch ground out

Runners on second and third with no outs, and three first pitch hacks at non-fastballs (Kiner-Falefa and Trevino got sliders, McKinney a changeup) that produced three balls that traveled a combined 17 feet in the air, per Statcast (video). Here’s the spray chart:

Maybe it’s not fair to call this sloppy baseball or classify it as a “little thing” the Yankees screwed up but good freaking lord. Does anyone on this team have anything resembling a competitive approach at the plate anymore? In related news, the Yankees are down to 29th in OBP (.296) and are 22nd in pitches seen per plate appearances (3.87).

IKF lets a pop up drop in: I don’t want to give Kiner-Falefa too much grief for this because he’s playing out of position, but a) it’s a ball even an inexperienced center fielder should catch (95% catch probability, per Statcast) (video), and b) Kiner-Falefa being the backup center fielder speaks to crummy roster construction. The Yankees don’t want to play Harrison Bader so many days in a row following his hamstring injury and the backup is the guy who flunked at shortstop last year. Every game the Yankees have an infielder in the outfield (Kiner-Falefa, Jake Bauers, or Oswaldo Cabrera) and it’s cost them several times, including in that fourth inning.

IKF wandering off second: This is what I get for calling Kiner-Falefa “surprisingly likable” as a utility player. He stole second base in the fifth inning, was called safe, and then he just wandered back to the dugout and was tagged out. To be fair, he would have been called out on replay (video), but still. Kiner-Falefa admitted he got deked. He told Gary Phillips someone yelled “out!” so he headed back to the dugout. Little League stuff, man. Stay on the base until you’re sure you’re out. I can’t believe I have to write this. (At least force the other team to use their challenge. Maybe you get lucky and they determine it's inconclusive.)

Because that wasn’t enough, Gleyber Torres and Rizzo both inexcusably got doubled off second base Sunday, among other things. The Yankees operate with a tiny margin of error right now and all these little screw ups hurt. The big things will not get better until the little things improve, and the little things have never been worse or more costly than they are right now.

Hamilton set to return

Ian Hamilton wrapped up his rehab assignment over the weekend (2.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K in three games) and he’s set to rejoin the Yankees on the road trip. “That’s the plan,” Boone told Mark Sanchez on Sunday. Hamilton has been out with a groin strain since May 16th and he was quite good (1.23 ERA and 1.77 FIP) before getting hurt.

The Yankees haven’t announced a roster move yet and it stands to reason Nick Ramirez, who has ridden the Scranton shuttle all season, will be sent down, but Ramirez has been sneaky great: 1.56 ERA (2.52 FIP) in 17.1 innings, and just one run allowed in his last 11 appearances. With Wandy Peralta struggling, keeping Ramirez around as the second lefty wouldn’t be a bad idea (though Tommy Kahnle and Ron Marinaccio can match up with lefties with their changeups).

Albert Abreu is the only other reliever at risk of losing his roster spot for Hamilton and – you can get mad at me for saying this – Abreu’s been perfectly fine as a low leverage last guy in the bullpen type (3.09 ERA and 4.30 FIP). Abreu is out of options, so dropping him for Hamilton means he’s out of the organization, and the Yankees sacrifice a little depth at a time when it feels like no one has enough pitching. I don’t think the Yankees want to do that.

The other option is sending down Jhony Brito, who is scheduled to start Tuesday’s series opener in Oakland. The rotation and roster moves would look like this:

• June 27th at Athletics: Jhony Brito
• June 28th at Athletics: Domingo Germán (Brito sent down, Hamilton activated)
• June 29th at Athletics: Clarke Schmidt
• June 30th at Cardinals: Luis Severino
• July 1st at Cardinals: Gerrit Cole
• July 2nd at Cardinals: Randy Vásquez in Brito’s spot (send down Ramirez?)

Rather than drop a reliever for Hamilton on Tuesday, the Yankees could kick the can down the road until the weekend, and carry nine relievers for the time being. With the way things have gone this year, someone will get hurt between Tuesday and Vásquez’s spot start Sunday, and this roster puzzle will solve itself. (Brito wouldn’t be able to come back up and start Sunday because of the 15-day waiting period).

Vásquez’s spot start would be just that, a spot start. Carlos Rodón is on track to join the Yankees next week and step into that rotation spot. The fact the Yankees didn’t announce a roster move for Hamilton after Sunday’s game or even Monday morning, and made everyone fly all the way out to Oakland, leads me to believe this convoluted Brito/nine-man bullpen plan could actually happen. We’ll see. Either way, Hamilton will be back soon. Good news for a bullpen that needs as many quality options as it can get.

Miscellany

Good start for Severino on Saturday. Six shutout innings against the highest scoring team in baseball, and he navigated a few messy innings. Severino’s velocity is creeping back up …

… though he only got four swings and misses on 95 pitches (43 swings). The Rangers have the eighth lowest swinging strike rate in baseball, but still. You’d like to see more whiffs. Severino’s not back back yet, but he’s trending in the right direction … Bader has the best .255/.278/.473 (103 wRC+) line I’ve seen in a while. He got The Big Hit in Sunday’s comeback, he hits for some power and steals bases, and the defense is so good. Similar to Gio Urshela, Bader’s an eye test superstar. Good, fun player. Now please stay healthy the rest of the year … Grown Ass Man save for Marinaccio on Saturday. He hadn’t pitched in five days and the Rangers put the first two runners on base in a one-run game. Two swinging strikeouts (fastball and changeup) and a pop up later, and he was out of it (video). There have been a few hiccups along the way, but you really have to be impressed at the job the bullpen has done this season … And finally, as the Yankees play more games outside the AL East, it is becoming more and more obvious just how brutal this division is. The other divisions just do not stack up. The Yankees have the ninth best record in baseball (43-35) while being 11-15 in the AL East. With a completely neutral and balanced schedule, they’re probably a top five team in baseball. Are the Marlins (45-34) really better than the Yankees? Are the Giants (44-34) and Diamondbacks (47-32)? The Rangers (47-30)? The records say they are, but are they really? I am unconvinced. (Of course, the schedule is not balanced, and the Yankees are stuck in the AL East. It is what it is.)

3. Five reasons to be optimistic about the 2023 Yankees. In the interest of covering all the angles, every once in a while I put together a case for the Yankees doing something I don’t think they actually should do (like sticking with the status quo in left field), and, no joke, I originally planned to write “the case for sticking with Josh Donaldson” in this post. The case would have looked like this:

• Positive regression is coming because he’s still hitting the ball hard (91.3 mph average exit velocity and 22.2% barrel rate) and has a fluky low .051 BABIP (!).
• His defense at third base is still so very good (recent errors aside).
• The internal alternatives are lacking (Isiah Kiner-Falefa? DJ LeMahieu? Oswald Peraza?).
• The external alternatives are lacking (Yoán Moncada? Jace Peterson?).
• Releasing Donaldson could come back to bite the Yankees like Aaron Hicks.

(That last one is a stretch. Donaldson being good for another team is better than Donaldson being bad for the Yankees.)

All that said, drilling down and making an honest-to-goodness case for sticking with Donaldson is a bridge too far even for me. And once the Yankees benched him this past weekend, there was really no point in defending him. The Yankees themselves have stopped doing it. I’m just glad I didn’t start working on it a few days ago and have to stick it in the Content Graveyard.

Now that there’s no point in defending Donaldson, I’m going to pivot to something else instead, and give you a few reasons to be optimistic about the 2023 Yankees. Because let’s be real here, even with the 4-2 homestand and series win over the very good Rangers, the vibes aren’t great. Aaron Judge’s injury is more severe than the Yankees let on, the offense is a drag, a few usually reliable relievers are struggling, and it seems like someone gets hurt every other day. It ain't great.

There are reasons to be optimistic though. You have to squint your eyes a little but, but they’re there, and the Yankees still have 84 games remaining. Plenty of season to go. Here, in no particular order, are five reasons to feel good about the current state of affairs as the Yankees head out west.

Rodón is nearing a return

Counting on Carlos Rodón to stay healthy is dicey given his injury history, though he’s closer to pitching for the Yankees now than he has been at any point. His second rehab start went well Sunday (4 H, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K) (video) and he says he feels ready. Rodón will definitely make one more rehab start, and that might be it. He could join the Yankees after that.

“It was good,” Rodón told Matt Kardos following his rehab start. “Hit the pitch count – well, a little under, but still got 50 in, had to go down and throw two more – got up and down four times and mixed in a little bit of everything, so it was good. I was just kind of trying to deploy all of the pitches and be in the zone with them, and just work with pitch shape.”

You’re smart and you know Rodón coming off the injured list is not like trading for an impact starter. Getting Rodón back from the injured list only moves the Yankees closer to whole, something they have not been all season. He’s an excellent pitcher when healthy who has not been healthy. The Yankees will soon have Rodón after not having him all year, and that’s exciting.

“I feel ready,” Rodón told Kardos. “(When I join the MLB team is) kind of a decision that we have to speak about, where I fall in the rotation and where they schedule it.”

Volpe is coming around (maybe? hopefully?)

Since showing up to Citi Field with a more closed batting stance and standing closer to the plate, Anthony Volpe is 8-for-31 with four doubles (including one to start Sunday's comeback), a homer, six walks, and 12 strikeouts. Putting that into familiar rate stats: .258/.378/.484 (143 wRC+) with 16.2% walks and 32.4% strikeouts.

Five of those 12 strikeouts came in one day (the Red Sox doubleheader) and there were some good, hard-fought walks in there:

• June 16th: 0-2 to a walk against righty annihilator Tanner Houck
• June 16th: Six-pitch walk against lefty Brennan Bernardino
• June 21st: 1-2 to a walk against Luis Castillo
• June 22th: Five-pitch walk against righty Bryan Woo
• June 23rd: 0-1 to a walk against Dane Dunning
• June 24th: 0-1 to a walk against Jon Gray

Volpe has six walks in his last 29 plate appearances. He had six walks in his previous 163 plate appearances. The walks are nice, though the real progress is the quality of his at-bats and his command of the strike zone. Volpe is still striking out too much (way too much, really), but he does seem more under control at the plate since making those adjustments.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Volpe has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this season. His .195/.275/.362 (77 wRC+) line is shockingly bad for a highly regarded prospect who isn’t a defense-first type. Volpe should be in Triple-A, I think, but the Yankees aren’t going to do that. At least now we’re seeing some positive signs after an adjustment was made.

Schmidt seems to be figuring things out

Not-so-fun fact: Clarke Schmidt has a 1.97 ERA in his last six starts, and the Yankees are 0-6 in those six games because they’ve scored nine runs total. Stupid offense. Schmidt has picked up the “pitch well and get no run support” torch from Jordan Montgomery, apparently. Lack of run support aside, this is a welcome sight:

In his last seven starts Schmidt has a) held his own against lefties (.293 wOBA allowed), b) not let things snowball into big innings (multiple runs allowed in only three of 37 innings), and c) pitched deeper into games (completed five innings six times after doing it only three times in his first nine starts). Schmidt looks like a young pitcher who is figuring things out. That’s fun.

I think Schmidt will settle in as a solid No. 3-4 type starter moving forward, albeit one who leaves you frustrated because his stuff is visually impressive and makes you think he should be better. I’m just not sure he’ll ever have the command to take The Big Leap. There’s nothing wrong with being a good No. 3-4 starter though. Those guys cost you $15M a year in free agency. Point is, Schmidt’s having his first sustained success as a big league starter. That’s a major positive.

McKinney is the new Carpenter

Although he lacks Matt Carpenter’s track record, Billy McKinney is this year’s Carpenter as the out-of-nowhere lefty dinger guy who stepped in to give the offense a much-needed shot in the arm. McKinney’s hitting .302/.327/.623 (159 wRC+) in the admittedly tiny sample of 55 plate appearances, and the underlying numbers are strong:

• Strikeout rate: 14.5%
• Barrel rate: 17.8%
• BABIP: .293 (so not unsustainably high)
• Pull rate: 51.1% (lefties who pull the ball mix well with Yankee Stadium)
• Chase rate: 20.5% (comfortably better than average)

The clock might strike midnight at some point (like Franchy Cordero), but McKinney is easy to root for as a journeyman finally having success, and he has already helped the Yankees win several games. He has four home runs as a Yankee and the Yankees won those four games by the scores of 3-0, 3-1, 4-2, and 1-0. They were important, winning homers.

McKinney is not chasing, he’s not striking out much, and when he’s put the ball in play, he’s hit it hard and in the direction of the short porch. That was Carpenter last season before the broken foot effectively ended his season. The fact McKinney is a former Yankees prospect who returned to the organization and is now delivering is pretty cool too. Fun story, this guy.

The upcoming schedule is friendly

We all know any team can beat any other team on any night in this game. Still, I’d rather have a bunch of bad teams coming up on the schedule than a bunch of first place teams, and the Yankees will face some bad teams on this road trip. They have three games in Oakland (20-60) and then three games in St. Louis (32-45). Like I said: bad.

It is way too early to call a game or series a must-win and expecting a sweep against any opponent is a bit much, but the Yankees really need to take the screws to the A’s. Oakland had that seven-game winning streak not too long ago, which included splitting four games with the Rays, but they are 1-10 since then and have been outscored 61-29. The Yankees have to beat up on that team. The same way they beat up on the A’s in Yankee Stadium a few weeks ago.

I’m conditioned to think the Cardinals are good and that will be a tough series, and I’m sure it will, but gosh, they’re legit bad. The rotation outside Montgomery is a mess, the defense is the worst by a Cardinals team in decades, and a lot of players in the lineup are underperforming. Something about St. Louis is just off this year, so much so they might sell at the deadline.

As bad as the A’s and Cardinals are, expecting the Yankees to go 6-0 on the road trip is unfair. Those are still Major Leaguers playing for their livelihoods in the other dugout. But 3-3 would be a disappointment. The Yankees should win more than they lose on that trip. A soft spot in the schedule has arrived and it’s an opportunity to get on a roll and bank a few wins.

4. Minor league quick hits. Got a few minor league nuggets I want to touch on without giving them the full analysis treatment, so here are a few prospect quick-hitters.

Pereira returns. OF Everson Pereira, who weirdly did not play from May 31st through June 22nd despite never being placed on the injured list, returned to the Double-A lineup Friday and went deep in his first at-bat (video). He is 2-for-4 with a double, a homer, and two walks in two games since returning to the lineup, though he’s yet to play a full nine innings. They’re still managing whatever apparently minor injury kept Pereira out of the lineup for close to a month. At least he’s back and playing well though.

Beeter promoted. After 40 starts (and two relief appearances) spanning three seasons at the Double-A level, RHP Clayton Beeter was finally promoted to Triple-A Scranton over the weekend. He held his own in his RailRiders debut (5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 6 K, 2 HR) (video). Here’s the Statcast data:

Less spin than I expected given the scouting reports, though the movement on his four-seamer (induced vertical break, approach angle, etc.) is quite good. It’s a dominant fastball. I’m curious to see Beeter’s pitch mix the next few weeks. Primarily fastball/slider like Friday? Or does he throw the curveball and changeup more often, like a more traditional starter?

Peraza banged up. SS Oswald Peraza has not played since last Sunday because of a minor abdominal issue, according to Jack Curry. Conor Foley said tests came back clean and Peraza has been going through fielding drills, and should return to the lineup soon. He’s been slumping a bit this month (.184/.293/.367 and 63 wRC+ in 12 June games), but that’s baseball. Peraza’s having a very good Triple-A season overall (.292/.360/.563 and 125 wRC+). If only the Yankees, who are getting some of the worst third base production in baseball, could figure out a way to get an MLB-ready infield prospect they claim to love into the lineup. (Maybe the Yankees are waiting for Peraza to get healthy to cut ties with the now benched Josh Donaldson?)

Sweeney’s still mashing. SS Trey Sweeney went 3-for-5 with a double and a triple Sunday and he hit three homers in six games last week. He's hitting .315/.393/.741 (192 wRC+) since June 11th and .287/.368/.596 (153 wRC+) since June 1st. Sweeney has walked (14.5%) nearly as much as he’s struck out (19.2%) this season, and he has a strong 9.2% swinging strike rate. If the Yankees ever call up Peraza, Sweeney could move up to Triple-A in a corresponding move, though I think he’ll spend most of the season in Double-A. It’s fine. He’s on a real nice run now though.

Hall dominating. OF Anthony Hall, last year’s fourth round pick and my No. 25 prospect, did not start the season on time after having wrist surgery in January. He joined Low-A Tampa two weeks into the season, needed another two weeks to settle in, and he’s crushed the ball since: .328/.440/.540 (166 wRC+) with six homers and nearly as many walks (16.2%) as strikeouts (17.5%) in his last 36 games. Contact quality is good for the level too:

• Average exit velocity: 87.3 mph (Low-A average: 85.9 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 34.8% (Low-A average: 31.4%)
• Barrel rate: 15.2% (Low-A average: 14.1%)

I’d expect a college guy with Hall’s resume (he set Oregon’s single-season SLG record last year) to mash in Low-A and mash he has. Gotta think the Yankees will move him up to High-A Hudson Valley later this year. I'm not sure Hall is being challenged much at his current level.

Somerset and Hudson Valley qualify for postseason. Double-A Somerset and High-A Hudson Valley clinched their first half division titles over the weekend and secured a spot in the postseason. Here’s Somerset’s celebration. Every minor league uses the split season format now. Postseason spots go to the teams that win the first half and second half division titles. Triple-A Scranton and Low-A Tampa finished way back in their divisions, so they’ll have to shoot for the second half title. Somerset and Hudson Valley are in though. At least two postseason teams in the farm system this year.

5. 2023 draft prospect: Kent State LHP Joe Whitman. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Whitman, 21, was so bad at Purdue that they barely used him (5.2 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 6 BB, 5 K from 2021-22). He transferred to Kent State this season and broke out, throwing 81 innings with a 2.56 ERA (3.47 FIP) and strong strikeout (29.1%) and walk (8.4%) numbers. Whitman got better as he got deeper into the season too. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 46
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 90
• FanGraphs: No. 22
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 45
• MLB.com: No. 46

As a final predraft showcase, Whitman made one start for the Cotuit Kettleers in the prestigious wood bat Cape Cod League on June 11th, and he dominated: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K. That’s about as good as it gets against top competition. Whitman’s an arrow up prospect leading into the draft. Here’s video and here’s part of FanGraphs’ scouting report:

Whitman is a super smooth lefty with fastball and slider command who has a chance to blow up on a pro strength and conditioning program … He throws quality fastball strikes despite a long arm swing, and his mechanical grace, especially at his size (6-foot-5 and 200 lbs.), and his command make him one of the better starting pitching prospects in the draft. Hitters can pick up Whitman's grip as his arm circles behind him, but then they don't see the ball again until it's right on top of them. The pacing of his delivery also catches hitters off guard, as Whitman accelerates his whole operation late in the process. His super quick arm stroke and ride/run life helps 92 play up. He could still stand to get stronger and might throw harder. The movement of his low-80s slider is tight and late, and he can land it for a strike or get a chase. His changeup isn't good or consistent, but we're talking about a guy who barely pitched in a competitive setting until 2023; if he had a good changeup, too, he'd be a top 20 pick. This is a great tip-of-the-iceberg prospect who should be in the late first round mix.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) notes Whitman’s slider will “eclipse the 3,000 rpm range” and it “generated whiffs at a 38% rate” this spring. Whitman already has fastball command and a good slider. Help him go from low-90s to mid-90s, improve that changeup, and you’re looking at a really good three-pitch mix and a lefty starter who could climb through the minors quickly. The risk is Whitman's track record as This Guy is rather short.

Whitman is the consensus top college lefty in the draft class and that guy always goes in the first round. You have to go back to 1979 for the last time a college lefty was not taken in the first round. The Yankees prefer hitters in the first round, but quality southpaws are a must-have in Yankee Stadium, and Whitman’s developmental needs (most notably fastball velocity) appear to align with their developmental strengths.

There might also be a chance at an underslot deal with Whitman. The No. 26 pick comes with a $3,065,000 slot value. For Whitman, taking, say, $2.5M at No. 26 would be better than taking slot at No. 34 ($2,481,400) or lower. If Whitman doesn’t think he’s a slam dunk first rounder, cutting a deal at No. 26 would be the way to go, and the Yankees could use the savings later in the draft.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. I forget to mention this Friday, but Aaron Judge did indeed advance to Phase 2 of the All-Star Game voting. He led all AL outfielders in votes and has a good chance to be voted in as a starter for the fifth time in his seven full seasons. Judge won’t play in the All-Star Game of course, the toe injury won’t allow it, but he’ll be voted in as a starter and then get replaced by whoever is next up in the voting. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement includes modest bonuses for All-Star Game voting. Here’s who gets what:

• Aaron Judge: $15,000 for leading outfield vote
• Anthony Rizzo: $2,500 for third place at first base

There’s also a $5,000 bonus for finishing in second place, though Rizzo was nearly a million votes behind Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Yandy Díaz. He wasn’t close. Gleyber Torres was fifth at second base, Giancarlo Stanton was sixth at DH, Anthony Volpe was seventh at shortstop, Jose Trevino was ninth at catcher, DJ LeMahieu was ninth at third base, and Harrison Bader was 20th in the outfield. No bonuses for them. Here’s the Phase 2 ballot. Vote away … And finally, last week Hal Steinbrenner said “we have not had any serious conversations” about a City Connect uniform, per Paul Lukas. The Yankees are one of 10 teams without City Connects, though the Cardinals and Phillies are scheduled to add one next year, so it’ll be no more than eight teams without one soon. The Yankees did Players Weekend jerseys. They can do City Connects. We don’t have to pretend the pinstripes are sacred and not to be tampered with. When the time comes, I just hope their City Connect uniforms are sharper than their Players Weekend getups.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)