June 19th, 2023: Red Sox Series, All-Star Game, Prospects

On this date in 2015, Alex Rodriguez took Justin Verlander deep for his 3,000th career hit. And the Yankees have not scored a single run since. Let’s get to today’s post. It’s yet another off-day, so here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon.

1. Swept in Fenway. How are the Yankees supposed to win a World Series while Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole are in their primes without eating tens of millions of dollars to make their declining veterans go away? I don’t care about the money. Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t care about my wallet unless I’m opening it to give him money. Why should I care about his? I care about the roster and lineup spots. This offense was not good enough to win the last few years, it was not reinforced over the winter, and now everyone’s on the decline. Is this really a surprise?

• Josh Donaldson: 6-for-37 (.162), 5 HR, 11 K
• DJ LeMahieu: 6-for-35 (.171), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 12 K
• Anthony Rizzo: 4-for-48 (.083), 1 2B, 11 K
• Giancarlo Stanton: 5-for-41 (.122), 1 2B, 2 HR, 15 K

Those are June numbers, and, as a team, the Yankees are hitting .192/.250/.370 (69 wRC+) this month. Their season batting line sits at .230/.298/.412 (96 wRC+), which is only slightly better than what defense-first catcher Jose Trevino hit last year (.248/.283/.388 and 91 wRC+). The Yankees badly miss Aaron Judge. They also aren’t an Aaron Judge away from having a postseason-caliber lineup. What happens when Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney inevitably cool off?

“We’ve got to find a way right now,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch between games Sunday. “We’re going through a challenging time right now offensively. We’ve got to dig ourselves out.”

Maybe Rizzo is still smarting from the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. and maybe Stanton didn’t have enough rehab games. Always possible. It’s also possible Rizzo aged 10 years overnight like Alfonso Soriano in 2014 (even his defense has been bad lately) and Stanton just can’t catch up to good velocity anymore. Giancarlo rules, I love the guy, but he’s hitting .176/.271/.429 (97 wRC+) in 385 plate appearances since coming off the injured list last June 4th. This is not a little two-week blip.

A few weeks ago I wrote the Yankees had few paths to shake up the roster. Now they could shake things up quickly, easily, and maybe impactfully. They could release Josh Donaldson, a move that would be met with zero criticism, and install Oswald Peraza at third base. They could put Estevan Florial in left and give Bauers time at first base and DH, and start taking at-bats away from Rizzo and Stanton because Bauers is the better hitter right now. They could (should) demote Anthony Volpe. They could get super aggressive and put Austin Wells behind the plate.

The Yankees will do none of these things because they are unrelentingly patient, which serves them well a lot of time, but there’s a razor thin line between patience and complacency, and the Yankees crossed that line a while ago. This is not a new thought. I’ve written about this many times before. How else do you explain watching the offense completely check out in the postseason (again) and then not upgrading it in the offseason? What a colossal failure by Brian Cashman.

And because a bad offense isn’t bad enough, the bullpen is starting to crack under the workload. Mike King’s velocity has been down lately …

… and he’s had a hard time putting hitters away his last few outings. Did you know Wandy Peralta hasn’t struck out a single batter in June? His last strikeout was May 31st in Seattle. Seven appearances, 4.1 innings, 21 batters faced in June. Zero strikeouts. Clay Holmes has been nails lately. Everyone else in the bullpen seems to have hit a wall. Gotta hope a second wind is coming soon.

The starters could give more innings, sure, but it’s kinda hard to do when Luis Severino is struggling, Clarke Schmidt has issues going through the lineup a third time, and the Yankees literally don’t have a No. 5 starter (they’ll need one Thursday rather than Saturday because of the rainout this past weekend). Honestly, I feel like the starters have done well given the injuries. They’re not blameless, but this isn’t really on them.

The offense could make life easier on the bullpen by giving them some cushion once in a while. Every single night the Yankees play a tight game with high leverage innings. The Braves just swept four games from the Rockies and won the four games 8-3, 8-1, 10-2, and 14-6. Four wins by at least five runs in one series. The Yankees have two wins by at least five runs in their last 34 games (18 wins). The high leverage guys are needed every single night.

(Matt Krook spent 15 days on the active roster before getting into a game, and when he finally did get into a game, the defense betrayed him. Justin Turner’s grand slam is on Krook, but the inning should never have gotten that far in the first place.)

The 2023 Yankees feel a lot like the 2015 Yankees. The 2015 Yankees started the season well enough, then all the veterans aged out of usefulness at once, and the Yankees lost the division by six games after having a six-game lead at the trade deadline. Maybe Aaron Boone will show his team video of the 2015 Blue Jays to motivate them. His masterful gambit with the 2004 Red Sox worked so well during last year's ALCS, after all.

It’s going to get worse before it gets better, both short and long-term. This team is frustrating, bland, and stale, and I feel like the only way out of this mess – not just this year, but moving forward – is with young players. And I just don’t trust the Yankees to get the most out of their young position players. They’ve had one (1) position player prospect reach his potential since Brett Gardner. I’ve watched too many talented young hitters come up and stagnate these last few years to give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt.

The emotional part of my brain says the Yankees have no business trading prospects for rentals at the deadline. The roster isn’t worth sacrificing young players for three-month upgrades. The rational part of my brain says you only get so many bites at the apple with Judge and Cole in their prime, and you should do everything you can to improve the team around them. The Yankees didn’t over the winter, but they’ll have another chance at the deadline, and should not pass.

The 2017 Yankees went to Game 7 of the ALCS with an exciting young core, they had one of the best farm systems in baseball, and they had the smallest amount of money committed to payroll that they’ve had in a very long time. They were all set up to dominate the sport. Instead, the result is this, and it is looking increasingly likely 2017 will be the peak of the Judge era. No matter what the higher-ups say, this the furthest the Yankees have been from championship-caliber since that aging 2015 group necessitated a mini-rebuild in 2016.

2. The Yankees and the 2023 All-Star Game. The All-Star Game is somehow only three weeks away – wasn’t Opening Day like two weeks ago? – and the fan voting is underway. Here’s the ballot. The starting position players will be announced next Thursday. The full All-Star Game rosters will be announced next Sunday.

The rules say every team has to send one player to the All-Star Game and I’m totally cool with that. It’s a meaningless exhibition – remember when the All-Star Game determined home field advantage in the World Series? that was silly – and the league should give every fan base a reason to tune in. The All-Star Game is not to be taken seriously.

And yet, here I am to examine who the Yankees could send to the All-Star Game and related events. The All-Star Game may be meaningless, but we all want to see our guys there, right? Let’s go through the events and see who could be headed to Seattle next month.

All-Star Game

The Yankees sent six players to the All-Star Game last season and have averaged 4.6 players per All-Star Game since 2017. I’m going to take the under this year. Here are this year’s All-Star Game candidates. (Reminder: Fans vote for the starters, and the rest of the rosters are filled out by the players’ ballot and the commissioner’s office. The managers no longer have any say.)

OF Aaron Judge: Judge led all AL outfielders in votes (by a lot) as of last week's update and looks like a good bet to be voted in as a starter for the fifth time in his career. Even if he doesn’t get a starting spot, I would expect Judge to be selected to the All-Star Game through the players’ ballot, even with the injuries and relatively few games. Judge is a megastar and will be there one way or another.

Will Judge actually play in the All-Star Game though? We still don’t have a timetable for his toe injury and, with each passing day, it is more and more likely he won’t be ready for the All-Star Game. I think Judge will be an All-Star one way or another, either through the fan or player voting, and if he’s unable to participate, he will be replaced on the roster by whoever is next up on the ballots (not necessarily the next Yankee).

RHP Gerrit Cole: Cole is like 99.5% of the way to being an All-Star Game lock. He’s been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year, and 7-1 with a 2.75 ERA will never look out of place in the All-Star Game. Cole has at most two starts remaining before the player vote is finalized, and, realistically, it would be hard to perform poorly enough between now and then to fall off the roster.

1B Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo’s slump, which is entering its fourth week, has knocked his batting line down to .262/.339/.429 (116 wRC+). That 116 wRC+ places him 13th among the 25 full-time first basemen with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, and sixth among AL full-time first baseman. Rizzo’s production has really dipped lately.

Blue Jays fans are stuffing the ballot again and Vlad Guerrero Jr. will probably win the fan voting for the third straight year (did you know Vlad Jr. still hasn’t hit a home run in Toronto this season?). Yandy Díaz has been one of the five best hitters in baseball this year regardless of position, so he’s going to the All-Star Game too. Barring injury, there is at most one first base spot open. Here are the best candidates:

• Ty France, Mariners: .278/.347/.422 (121 wRC+)
• Nate Lowe, Rangers: .272/.355/.430 (120 wRC+)
• Ryan Noda, Athletics: .245/.397/.422 (140 wRC+)
• Anthony Rizzo, Yankees: .262/.339/.429 (116 wRC+)

Noda, a Rule 5 Draft pick, is currently second in the AL in OBP (partly because Judge doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify). With Brent Rooker hitting .255/.356/.491 (139 wRC+), the Athletics – the 19-55 Athletics – might actually send two players to the All-Star Game. Noda’s been that good. Seems to me Rizzo has played his way out of the All-Star Game these last few weeks. Bummer.

Gleyber Torres: The only AL second baseman who unquestionably deserves to be an All-Star this year is Marcus Semien. He’s been awesome. Jose Altuve figures to advance to the second phase of the fan voting. From there, one of two things will happen:

1. Altuve will beat Semien in the fan voting, then will skip the All-Star Game like the last two years so he doesn’t get booed. In that case Semien would start.
2. Altuve finishes second in the fan voting and is not voted in on the players’ ballot because he’s played only 21 games around his World Baseball Classic thumb injury.

Either way, Altuve probably won’t be at the All-Star Game this season, leaving a second base spot open behind Semien. I see three candidates for that spot:

• Brandon Drury, Angels: .267/.313/.498 (119 wRC+)
• Whit Merrifield, Blue Jays: .305/.364/.393 (115 wRC+)
• Gleyber Torres, Yankees: .256/.331/.439 (114 wRC+)

Andrés Giménez, who started in place of Altuve last year, is hitting .244/.309/.378 (91 wRC+), and that’s not gonna cut it. Defense will only get you so far come All-Star Game voting time.

The second base sleeper is Zach McKinstry. He took a .288/.400/.432 (138 wRC+) line into June and a hot start is the kinda thing that sticks in your mind. Plus the Tigers have to send someone. With Eduardo Rodriguez hurt, McKinstry and primary closer Alex Lange are their best options. The non-Semien second base spot could go to the token Tiger.

Merrifield has played nearly as much outfield (29 games) as second base (41 games), but he’s on the All-Star ballot as a second baseman, and he’s a well-known player and a two-time All-Star previously. Plus that .305 AVG is nice and shiny. That won’t look out of place in the All-Star Game. Should Altuve back out again, I think Merrifield is the best bet to get the other second base spot alongside Semien, unless it’s needed for McKinstry. Torres isn’t too far behind though.

RHP Clay Holmes: Holmes was an All-Star last season and he’s been fantastic the last few weeks. Don’t underestimate the potential for players to look at the ballot and say “that guy has the nastiest sinker I’ve faced this year and I think he was an All-Star last year, I’ll vote for him.” They’re not racking their brains when it’s time to vote for All-Stars, you know? Ultimately, I don’t think Holmes makes it, even with all the inevitable pitcher injury and workload replacements.

Other candidates: I don’t see any. Domingo Germán’s stinker over the weekend reduced his chances from slim to none. Mike King had a rough start and a rough last few games, and he’s already facing an uphill battle as a non-closer reliever. Others like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Billy McKinney have zero chance. It’ll be Cole and Judge, maaaybe Torres, maaaybe Holmes, and that’s it. The Yankees have not had as few as two All-Stars since 2013 (Robinson Canó and Mariano Rivera) and there’s a distinct possibility it happens this year.

Home Run Derby

The Yankees have not had a player in the Home Run Derby since 2017, when Judge won it and Gary Sánchez lost to Miguel Sanó in the second round. I don’t expect that to change this year, but who knows? I’m wrong all the time. The few Home Run Derby candidates:

Aaron Judge: Judge has said several times he will only do the Home Run Derby again if it’s in New York. Add in the toe injury and this is a firm no. Even if the toe heals up soon and Judge returns to the Yankees in a week or two, he'll skip the Home Run Derby to avoid any sort of setback.

Giancarlo Stanton: Stanton reached the been there, done that phase of his career a few years ago. He won the 2016 Home Run Derby and also participated in the 2014 and 2017 Home Run Derbys. If he didn’t do it back home at Dodger Stadium last year (while being an All-Star who was already in Los Angeles), he ain’t doing it at T-Mobile Park this year. Stanton’s a no.

(I would be cool with Giancarlo doing it. Maybe it would get his swing on track? Stanton hit 59 homers en route to being named NL MVP in 2017, and he hit 33 homers in 73 games after the Home Run Derby. He has said he thinks the Home Run Derby might’ve helped him get his swing locked in. The Yankees could really use a productive Stanton. Do it, G!)

Anthony Rizzo: You don’t have to be an All-Star to participate in the Home Run Derby. That said, Rizzo has done the Home Run Derby once before (2015) and he’s a soon-to-be 34-year-old with a troublesome back and three prior All-Star Game selections. Is he really going to fly all the way to Seattle for the Home Run Derby? Hell no. He’s going on vacation with his family like every other veteran non-All-Star. If Rizzo gets selected to the All-Star Game, maybe he does the Home Run Derby since he'll already be there. I doubt it given his back, but maybe. (But nah.)

Gleyber Torres: The days of MLB having to beg players like Jesús Aguilar and Michael Cuddyer to participate in the Home Run Derby to fill out the field are over. The young generation of stars seems eager to do it, and that’s a good thing for the sport. Gleyber’s best hope at being asked to swing away in the Home Run Derby involves about 30 other players saying no first.

Maybe Torres sneaks into the All-Star Game and someone backs out of the Home Run Derby at the last minute, and Gleyber steps in as a replacement? That happened in 2019. Christian Yelich had a back issue and Matt Chapman, who was already in Cleveland for the All-Star Game, filled in. Unless that happens with Torres, the odds are strongly in favor of this being the fifth straight Yankees-less Home Run Derby. Kinda lame.

Futures Game

I wish MLB better marketed the Futures Game. It is up against a bunch of actual MLB games on Saturday afternoon/evening, and, beginning last year, it airs exclusively on Peacock. They also shortened the Futures Games to seven innings a few years ago. This is the All-Star schedule:

• Saturday: Futures Game
• Sunday: Day 1 of the draft
• Monday: Home Run Derby
• Tuesday: All-Star Game

Why not play a full nine-inning Futures Game on Wednesday night, when there’s nothing else going on in the baseball world? I suppose the answer is the Triple-A All-Star Game is played that Wednesday and it airs exclusively on MLB Network. There has to be a better way to do this though. The Futures Game is almost an afterthought Saturday.

(I’m sure MLB has its ducks in a row as far as what gets ratings and advertising dollars and all that, and I assume that’s why the Futures Game is low priority. I’ve been to several Futures Games and I kid you not when I say the crowd for the Celebrity Softball Game afterward is larger than the crowd for the Futures Game.)

The Yankees sent three players to the Futures Game last year (Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, Ken Waldichuk), though that isn’t the norm. One or two MLB teams send three players to the Futures Game each year, and the rest send one or two. Two Yankees in the Futures Game this year would be neat. If it’s just one, then it’s just one. Here are the Yankees’ Futures Game candidates in one idiot blogger’s estimation.

OF Jasson Domínguez: A handful of players have been selected to three Futures Games, most notably Edwin Encarnación (2003-05) and Carlos Carrasco (2006-08), and I expect Domínguez to join that group this year. His .210/.355/.390 (106 wRC+) doesn’t scream All-Star, but the Futures Game isn’t an All-Star Game. It’s a top prospects showcase and Domínguez is one of the game’s best and most famous prospects. I think he’ll be there for the third straight year.

OF Spencer Jones and OF Everson Pereira: The Brewers sent two outfielders to the Futures Game last year (Jackson Chourio and Joey Weimer), so it can be done, though it is rare. I gotta think Domínguez is at the front of the Yankees outfielder line. If MLB wants someone else, then I would bet on Jones over Pereira because he’s a recent first round pick and a bigger name. Also, Pereira’s currently injured (more on that in a bit).

SS Oswald Peraza: It is extremely rare for players with MLB time to be selected to the Futures Game and Peraza isn’t even rookie-eligible anymore. He exhausted his rookie eligibility through service time earlier this year. Peraza’s mashing in Triple-A (.292/.360/.563 and 125 wRC+), but he has too much big league time and doesn’t fit the spirit of the Futures Game. He’s a no.

(Also, the Yankees would likely hold Peraza out of the Futures Game anyway because he’s their top piece of infield depth and also one of their best trade chips. Teams are consulted during the roster selection process and they can hold players out of the Futures Game. The Yankees did it with Luis Severino in 2015 because they were preparing to call him up.)

RHP Will Warren: Triple-A has not been kind to Warren (6.29 ERA and 6.92 FIP in six starts), though he is the organization’s top pitching prospect, and will get Futures Game consideration. The AL pitching crop is shockingly thin right now. Here are the AL pitchers on Baseball America’s June top 100 prospects list update (subs. req’d):

10. RHP Gavin Williams, Guardians: Healthy and great this year
12. RHP Tanner Bibee, Guardians: In MLB (graduated Sunday)
13. RHP Taj Bradley, Rays: In MLB (needs seven more innings to graduate)
16. RHP Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles: In Triple-A but made 10 MLB starts this year
26. RHP Shane Baz, Rays: Injured
42. RHP Bryce Miller, Mariners: In MLB (graduated Sunday)
52. LHP Ricky Tiedemann, Blue Jays: Injured
53. RHP Mason Miller, Athletics: Injured (in MLB)
77. LHP DL Hall, Orioles: Injured (kinda)
79. RHP Daniel Espino, Guardians: Injured
82. RHP Bryan Woo, Mariners: In MLB
83. RHP Owen White, Rangers: Healthy and great this year, spent one day in MLB last week

Figure Williams and White go, and a token Mariner (RHP Emerson Hancock?) is selected since they’re the host team. That still leaves seven open AL pitching spots. Warren is exactly the kinda guy who could get the nod given the lack of top 100 options. That is, unless the Yankees pitcher selected to the Futures Game is …

RHP Chase Hampton: The Yankees promoted Hampton to Double-A over the weekend and he allowed three runs in six innings in his Somerset debut Sunday. He struck out eight (video). Hampton is fifth in the minors in strikeouts (85) and third in the minors in strikeout rate (39.9%, min. 50 innings). He’s the new hotness and one of the top breakout pitchers in the minors, and could get the Futures Game nod over Warren as a result. Warren’s already old news.

C Austin Wells: They take three catchers to the Futures Game and I assume Mariners C Harry Ford will be one of the three because they’re the host team. It would not be undeserved. Ford is a consensus top 50-ish prospect in baseball. Here are the other AL catchers on Baseball America’s June top 100 prospects list update (subs. req’d):

23. Logan O’Hoppe, Angels: Injured (in MLB)
25. Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics: Has played almost as much first base (81 games) as catcher (82 games) the last two years
68. Bo Naylor, Guardians: In MLB
78. Samuel Basallo, Orioles: 18-year-old in Low-A having a great year
80. Yainer Diaz, Astros: In MLB
86. Edgar Quero, Angels: Having a great year in Double-A
90. Austin Wells, Yankees

You don’t see many 18-year-olds in the Futures Game. Domínguez did it, though he was a special case as one of the most hyped prospects ever. Basallo? Eh, not really. If they consider Soderstrom a first baseman rather than a catcher, then Wells has a pretty good chance to go. Ford, Quero, and Wells looked like a reasonable Futures Game catching trio.

Last year the Yankees promoted Domínguez to High-A Hudson Valley after the Futures Game and I wonder if something similar could be in the cards with Wells. He’s hitting .248/.352/.504 (127 wRC+) this year and .256/.357/.489 (128 wRC+) in 406 Double-A plate appearances dating back to last year. It’s time to get him to Triple-A, so maybe after the Futures Game? We’ll see.

RHP Clayton Beeter: Beeter’s having a fantastic season and the Futures Game broadcast could talk up the “the Yankees got him in the Joey Gallo trade” angle. The Yankees could even do the “promote him after the Futures Game” thing like Domínguez last year. With all due respect though, Beeter is not the kinda prospect you see in the Futures Game. He’s a second tier guy more than someone who finds himself in a showcase of the game’s best youngsters.

I think Domínguez is the closest thing to a Futures Game lock for the Yankees. The Yankees let Waldichuk pitch in the Futures Game last year even though he was knocking on the door of the big leagues (and a trade chip), so Warren being a phone call away isn’t a dealbreaker. Then again, the 2023 Yankees are in worse shape pitching-wise than the 2022 Yankees. They might hold him out. That could give Hampton an edge.

Ultimately, I think Domínguez and Wells go to the Futures Game, and it is much more likely the Yankees send one player (almost certainly Domínguez) than three players (I’d say Warren over Hampton in the event they do send a third). Now that I’ve laid all that out, prepare for Beeter, Pereira, and 3B Tyler Hardman to represent the Yankees.

3. Prospect thoughts. OF Spencer Jones had a whale of a series last week. He went 12-for-24 with a double, three homers (video), two steals, three walks, and only five strikeouts in the six games against Rome. Last year’s first rounder is hitting .289/.344/.531 (134 wRC+) on the season. Maybe Jones is a Futures Game candidate after all? We’ll find out soon enough. Here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Thorpe hitting his stride

It seems my expectations for RHP Drew Thorpe, last year’s second round pick, were unfair. I thought he'd dominate right away. It took him a few weeks to get settled in and settled in he has. Thorpe has thrown at least six scoreless innings in four of his last five starts while putting up a 42/8 K/BB in 33 innings (video). His season numbers: 2.64 ERA (3.14 FIP) with 31.1% strikeouts and 8.1% walks in 64.2 innings. Thorpe’s been really good overall.

“(Thorpe has) such a unique slot and feel for five different pitches,” High-A Hudson Valley pitching coach Preston Claiborne told Max Goodman recently. “He came in with a devastating slider already from college and that pitch has only gotten a little bit better. He’s throwing a little bit harder now too than he was, which is awesome to see. And then he’s got an electric changeup, a very unique changeup that deviates from the expected movement path that we normally see. He doesn’t have that Cole Hamels or Pedro Martinez diving changeup. He’s got more of a John Means changeup … It goes against a lot of the models. That’s why he’s able to use it against right-handed and left-handed batters.”

We don’t have High-A Statcast though I’ve been told Thorpe is sitting in the 92-94 mph range this year after sitting 90-91 mph at Cal Poly last spring. So there has been a velocity increase, just not the monster spike we sometimes see with Yankees’ pitchers. The important thing is Thorpe is now Figuring It Out after a surprisingly control-challenged start to his pro career. I expect the Yankees to move him up to Double-A Somerset soon. Possibly after the All-Star break.

Florial’s continued excellence, and the importance of context

OF Estevan Florial has hit six home runs in his last nine games (video) and his season batting line is up to a stout .304/.395/.631 (147 wRC+) in 52 Triple-A games. Florial has already hit 18 home runs, tying his career high set in 2021 (17 in the minors and one in MLB), and the RailRiders still have another 70-something games remaining. Here are his contact quality numbers:

• Average exit velocity: 90.5 mph (Triple-A average: 87.9 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 46.4% (Triple-A average: 37.7%)
• Barrel rate: 29.3% (Triple-A average: 17.8%)

Bobby Dalbec (30.6%) is the only Triple-A hitter with a higher barrel rate than Florial. The slash line is excellent and so is the contact quality. I do think it’s important to add some context to Florial’s performance though. First and foremost, this is his third straight season in Triple-A. He should be mashing, though he’s going above and beyond what I would have expected anyway.

Second, Florial is still striking out a lot. His Triple-A strikeout rate has gone from 30.9% in 2021 to 30.4% in 2022 to 30.8% in 2023, and hitters with a 30% strikeout rate in Triple-A historically have a higher bust rate than 20-something-percent strikeout rate guys. Florial’s swinging strike rate has gone from 16.1% to 14.7% to 16.0% the last three years as well.

And third, the automatic strike zone has had a sizable effect on Triple-A offense. And it’s not even fully automated this year. They’re using the automatic strike zone Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The challenge system (human umps, and three calls per game can be appealed to the robot overlords) is used Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Here are the International League numbers the last two years:

• 2022: .251/.336/.414 with 23.3 K% and 10.1 BB%
• 2023: .262/.357/.440 with 22.7 K% and 11.8 BB%

Offense is up, walks are up, strikeouts are slightly down. Ryan Weber recently told Dan Martin the automatic strike zone is tight on the corners, and assuming that’s true for everyone, it explains the increase in offense. Pitchers have to come over the plate a little more, and when you’re over the plate more often, you’re going to get hit more. That’s just the way it is.

So as good as Florial has been this season – and he’s been great – he should be putting up big numbers because it’s third year in Triple-A, and because the automatic strike zone is squeezing pitchers. This applies to SS Oswald Peraza as well, though he’s in his second full Triple-A season, not his third. Context is important, especially as you get further away from MLB.

It’s obvious the Yankees aren’t going to give Florial an opportunity this season. Not without more injuries. It’s clear Aaron Judge will be out several weeks and the Yankees still went with Billy McKinney (who’s been very good!) over Florial. They’re playing Isiah Kiner-Falefa in center field between Harrison Bader’s injuries. It’s remarkable they’ve passed over Florial as many times as they have this year.

At least Florial is mashing and possibly building up trade value. He went unclaimed on waivers a few weeks ago, though the timing (right after Opening Day, when rosters were set) made a claim less likely. I’m not sure he’d get through waivers now. Florial will be a minor league free agent after the season and you have to expect him to leave and sign with a team with a clearer path to MLB playing time, making a trade likely. Maybe now the return will be something rather than nothing. Either way, great year for Florial, even with the proper context.

Pereira is MIA

OF Everson Pereira has not appeared in a game since May 30th, when he shot a ground ball single back up the middle in his first at-bat and was removed in the next inning. Pereira has not been placed on the Double-A Somerset injured list. He’s been on the active roster the entire time, but it’s not been 21 days since he last appeared in a game. Hmmm.

Mike Ashmore says Pereira is “day-to-day” and participating in pregame activities, and it seems like the Yankees are being very cautious with him given his injury history. So why not put him on the injured list then? It is literally a list for injured players. If anything, the Yankees have used the injured list liberally over the years. They’ll put guys on the injured list even when it’s a minor injury, just to be safe. Yet Pereira remains on the active roster. Weird, man.

Prior to this mystery injury, Pereira was in the middle of his best stretch of the season, going 18-for-43 (.419) with three home runs in the 12 games before getting hurt. He’s hitting .285/.350/.514 (129 wRC+) on the season. Still a few too many strikeouts (28.7%) and swinging strikes (15.0%), but he’s hitting, and he’s two years younger than the average Eastern League player. Recent injury aside, it’s been a fine season for Pereira.

Beck debuts (finally)

RHP Brendan Beck, my No. 26 prospect, finally made his pro debut last week. The 2021 second round pick had Tommy John surgery in Sept. 2021. Beck struck out five (the first five batters he faced) and threw three perfect innings in the rookie Florida Complex League. No Statcast or any word on how his stuff looked, but he’s back in game action. That’s always good.

Between the FCL and Low-A, Beck is gonna spend another few weeks in Tampa. A bump up to High-A Hudson Valley could happen late in the year, though Beck’s coming out party is scheduled for 2024. That’s when the training wells will come off and the Yankees will hope to get Beck up to Double-A Somerset before having to make a 40-man roster decision next winter.

The first few rehab games aren’t a great time to evaluate pitchers, though I hope we get word on Beck’s velocity and whatnot soon. He’s a build-a-pitcher type. Someone the Yankees hope can develop more velocity, a better breaking ball, etc. Beck is on the older side (turns 25 in October), but there’s nothing you can do about that. If you can get outs, they don’t care how old you are.

Mayea returns

Two quick notes on OF Brando Mayea, this year's top international signing. First, he is listed on the official roster as Brando, so I’m gonna start referring to him Brando. His name is Brandon but his nickname is Brando, and that’s what he’s going by in pro ball. Brando is it. That’s a way cooler name than Brandon anyway.

And second, Mayea returned last week after apparently injuring himself legging out a double in his first pro at-bat on June 5th. He missed 11 days total, so the injury couldn’t have been too bad. Mayea, 17, is 2-for-6 with a double in two Dominican Summer League games since returning. The Yankees gave him a $4.35M bonus back in January. Glad the injury was minor.

Miscellany

SS Trey Sweeney is on a heater. The 2021 first rounder is 21-for-67 (.313) with four homers (video) in his last 15 games and is up to .249/.364/.400 (112 wRC+) with Double-A Somerset on the season. Including his 11-game cameo last year, Sweeney has a lower strikeout rate (20.1% vs. 23.6%) and swinging strike rate (8.8% vs. 9.9%) in Double-A than High-A. The contact skills are there. Maybe now the power is showing up too. Would be cool … I can’t imagine RHP Clayton Beeter will remain in Double-A much longer. He’s allowed one run total in his last five starts and 27 innings (video), and has a 2.08 ERA (3.33 FIP) with a 29.7% strikeout rate this season. Beeter reached Double-A in August 2021 and he’s made 40 starts at the level. Time to get him up to Triple-A, Yankees. (Beeter spoke to Greg Johnson about how thankful he is the Yankees turned him loose after the Dodgers kept him on tight pitch counts) … RHP Juan Carela, my No. 29 prospect, has struck out 10 batters in each of his last three starts (video). He has a 3.04 ERA (3.10 FIP) with a 30.9% strikeout rate with High-A Hudson Valley. Carela will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and it’s hard to see room on the 40-man roster for him. The kid might be pitching his way into being a trade chip … 1B T.J. Rumfield recently had a five-game home run streak (video) and he’s hit six homers in his last 10 games, and 12 homers in 47 games with Double-A Somerset this season. He hit 13 home runs at all levels (college, summer ball, minors) from 2020-22. Rumfield’s season line is unimpressive (.234/.327/.479 and 113 wRC+) but his ball-tracking data is said to be good and he doesn’t strike out much (14.8%). Maybe there’s a role for the lefty hitting first baseman down the line … And finally, 2B Jared Serna’s assault on Low-A pitching continues unabated. He’s hitting .311/.375/.534 (146 wRC+) with 13 homers, 15 steals, 17.0% strikeouts, 8.7% walks, and 9.3% swinging strikes. Serna will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season. I would think the Yankees will expose him to High-A pitching before making a 40-man roster decision. He also might be a trade chip. Tough to tie up a 40-man spot on a Single-A hitter without a clear position when you’re trying to win a World Series.

4. 2023 draft prospects: Day 2 college pitchers. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Rather than highlight another potential first round target, I’m going to shift gears a bit and look at a few college pitchers the Yankees may target on Day 2 of the draft (rounds 3-10). The Yankees have had a lot of success with Day 2 college arms the last few years. They draft ‘em, tweak a few things, then enjoy the breakouts. Some recent examples:

• 2019 draft: LHP Ken Waldichuk (fifth round), RHP Hayden Wesneski (sixth round)
• 2021 draft: RHP Richard Fitts (sixth round), RHP Will Warren (eighth round), RHP Chandler Champlain (ninth round) (also RHP Zach Messinger in the 13th round on Day 3)
• 2022 draft: RHP Chase Hampton (sixth round)

Fitts is a bit of a special case because he had first round buzz entering his draft season before uneven performance and foot injury derailed him. There have of course been misses along the way (2019 fourth rounder LHP Jake Agnos hasn’t pitched since 2019 due to injury), but the Yankees gravitate toward college arms they believe they can coach up on Day 2. There’s a clear pattern.

None of those guys above have actually thrown a pitch in pinstripes yet, though Waldichuk (Frankie Montas), Wesneski (Scott Effross), and Champlain (Andrew Benintendi) were all used as higher end trade chips. Granted, those trades have been duds, but that's not on the pitchers. The larger point is the Yankees turned mid-round draft picks into quality pitching prospects, and are sure to try again this year.

Those guys shared common traits that can help guide us as we look for college pitchers the Yankees may select on Day 2 this year. Not everyone checks every box, but, more often than not, the college pitchers the Yankees select on Day 2 fit this mold:

• Multiple years in the rotation: No reliever or swingman converts. The Yankees have targeted guys with experience and innings under their belt.
• Low-90s fastball: The Yankees have an excellent arm strength program and frequently turn low-90 into mid-90s, and mid-90s into upper-90s.
• A work-in-progress breaking ball: Can’t figure out a consistent slider or curveball? Don’t worry, the Yankees will teach you a sweeper before lunch.
• A specific arm action: Not just anyone can add velocity or pick up the sweeper. Certain arm strokes are conducive to it, and the Yankees seek them out.
• Great pitch data: Spin rate and whatnot. This stuff isn’t readily available at the college level and we usually don’t hear about it until after the draft.

Dozens of college pitchers get drafted each year and, after the first few rounds, the gap in talent gets very small. Also, the bonus pool factors into every single decision. It’s not as simple as “we like this guy the most, so we’re taking him.” If you can’t afford a player, he’s no good to you. You have to draft the player you really like and the player you know will sign at a specific number.

We’re doing some serious needle-in-a-haystacking here, but those shared traits can help narrow the pool down a bit, and maybe we’ll get lucky and run into someone the Yankees will draft in a few weeks and turn into the next quality pitching prospect. Here are a few college arms the Yankees could possibly target on Day 2 of the draft, listed alphabetically.

Fresno State LHP Ixan Henderson

2023 stats: 3.74 ERA (5.25 FIP) with 26.0 K% and 8.9 BB% in 89 IP (video)

MLB.com says: “While his fastball tops out at 94 mph and averages right around 91, it’s a sneaky heater that comes with deception thanks to his arm slot and serves as his out pitch … his upper-70s slider that can miss a decent amount of bats, though he also has a slower curve, with the two blending together at times. There’s some feel for his changeup”

My take: Henderson’s arm action is Waldichukian and the “sneaky heater” line makes me think it might have the same invisiball traits as Waldichuk’s. Waldichuk doesn’t light up the radar gun but the spin, extension, etc. allowed his fastball to get by minor league hitters consistently. The Yankees have shown a willingness to draft and develop this kinda funky arm action, and Henderson is a prime sweeper candidate with the lower arm slot.

Arkansas LHP Hunter Hollan

2023 stats: 4.13 ERA (5.89 FIP) with 21.0 K% and 8.2 BB% in 80.2 IP (video)

MLB.com says: “He has operated at 90-92 mph and hit 97 as a junior while flashing three solid secondary pitches, the best of which is a 71-75 mph downer curveball that could use a bit more power but gets swings and misses. He utilizes a two-plane slider that parks around 80 mph and a firm mid-80s changeup with some tumble … high floor as a pitchability left-hander”

My take: Hollan sounds a bit more refined than the usual Yankees’ Day 2 college pitching target, so maybe he’s more of a Jordan Montgomery type (just a few tweaks) than a Warren type (total overhaul). This draft class is thin on lefties and someone with a “high floor as a pitchability left-hander” is a good candidate to come off the board earlier than the draft rankings would lead you to believe. Hollan is a projected fourth or fifth rounder right now.

Charlotte RHP Wyatt Hudepohl

2023 stats: 4.27 ERA (4.48 FIP) with 29.3 K% and 6.1 BB% in 105.1 IP (video)

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says: “The 6-foot-4, 220-pound righty has a deep mix of pitches, which includes a 93 mph fastball that touches 96, a sharp, power curveball in the low 80s, an upper-80s changeup and a cutter that also ranges from 85-92 mph.”

My take: Hudepohl is an arrow up prospect who had a 17-strikeout game in May and an 11-strikeout game in the Regionals two weeks ago. He’s pitched very well the last month or so, enough that he might now be more of a fourth or fifth rounder than a seventh or eighth rounder. If Hudepohl was under the radar coming into the spring, he’s not now. He might be too well-known to fit what I’m trying to do here.

Grand Canyon LHP Zach Thornton

2023 stats: 3.87 ERA (4.96 FIP) with 24.3 K% and 4.8 BB% in 88.1 IP (video)

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says: “(He) averaged 90 mph on (his fastball) this spring, while touching 94. He does spot the pitch consistently for strikes, and has paired it with a two-plane breaking slider in the low 80s and an 11-to-5 curveball in the mid 70s with big depth. He’s also mixed in a low-80s changeup with slight dropping action that looks like another quality pitch … he has great starting traits, above-average command and a physical frame to dream on for a team confident in its ability to train velocity.”

My take: That last line kinda says it all, no? Thornton has great starting traits and would fit well with a team that can help him add velocity. He’s pitching in the MLB Draft League this summer and that pitch data is available (sometimes), and Thornton’s is quite good despite below-average fastball velocity. Good spin, good movement, etc. He’s pretty much exactly the kinda guy the Yankees target on Day 2.

Illinois RHP Jack Wenninger

2023 stats: 4.59 ERA (5.24 FIP) with 22.6 K% and 8.3 BB% in 80.1 IP (video)

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says: “(He) relies heavily on his fastball that will sit anywhere from 90-94, but will touch 96 mph. His changeup is a plus secondary offering with tons of arm-side fade, and he’ll also mix in a bigger curveball. Adding some weight will lead to more explosiveness on the mound, which could be accompanied by an uptick in stuff”

My take: In addition to adding velocity and sweepers and all that, the Yankees have also helped these Day 2 college pitchers get into peak physical condition. I don’t mean they’re out of shape or anything like that. I just mean pro training programs are better than what’s available at a college program. The Yankees get their guys into better shape, which helps on the mound. Wenninger is a lanky 6-foot-4. Firm him up, boost the fastball, add a sweeper to that already plus changeup, and Wenninger could really be something.

* * *

Other possible Day 2 college pitcher targets: North Carolina RHP Max Carlson, Samford RHP Jacob Cravey, Canisius RHP Matt Duffy, New Mexico RHP Isaac Gallegos, South Carolina RHP Noah Hall, Middle Tennessee RHP Jaden Hamm, and Louisiana-Monroe RHP Nick Judice. I’m listing these guys here because a) they fit the criteria, and b) I want to be able to come back and toot my own horn in the event the Yankees draft one or two of ‘em.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)