June 15th, 2023: Subway Series, Volpe, Severino, Injuries, Germán, LeMahieu, Mailbag

Hal Steinbrenner was in New York for the quarterly owners’ meetings earlier this week and he spoke to reporters afterward. Here’s what he said. I find Hal insincere and patronizing, so I’m not going to analyze everything he said, but there it is if you’re interested. Let’s get today’s post. It’s another off-day, so here’s the post Thursday afternoon rather than Friday morning.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees are 82-80 in their last 162 games, postseason included. Whatever the opposite of a fun fact is, that’s it. Here are a few thoughts on the last two games.

Subway Split

It is very 2023 Yankees-y that Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s extremely cool straight steal of home (video) ultimately went for naught in a loss. Gerrit Cole’s gem was wasted, various Mets’ defensive and baserunning blunders were wasted, and leadoff doubles were wasted. The Yankees could have easily won both Subway Series games. They could have easily lost both too.

“I just couldn’t believe I did that in the big leagues, especially in this game,” Kiner-Falefa told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s game. “I wish the result would have been different. That was kind of a cool moment for myself, but at the end of the day, it’s a tough loss. We have to go to Boston and pick it up, and start playing better baseball.”

Kiner-Falefa is the first Yankee to steal home since Didi Gregorius as part of a double steal with Starlin Castro on Aug. 27th, 2016 (video). The Yankees were playing the Orioles and Buck Showalter was in the other dugout for that one too. Kiner-Falefa is the first Yankees with a straight steal of home since Jacoby Ellsbury against the Rays on April 22nd, 2016 (video).

Including Kiner-Falefa’s steal of home, the Yankees needed the aid of an egregious defensive mistake to score each of their last four runs.

• Last run Tuesday: Brandon Nimmo didn’t catch Anthony Volpe’s “double.”
• First run Wednesday: Starling Marte airmailed the throw to third base.
• Second run Wednesday: Jeff McNeil threw wildly to first on a potential double play they weren’t going to turn anyway.
• Third run Wednesday: No one yelled at Brooks Raley to step off when Kiner-Falefa was halfway down the line before he even broke for home.

“I got halfway and (Raley) didn’t acknowledge me. The third baseman (Eduardo Escobar) didn’t acknowledge me,” Kiner-Falefa told Hoch. “I timed it up right before he made a move. I had already committed, and the timing just worked out perfectly.”

The Yankees are hitting .196/.258/.355 (67 wRC+) as a team since Aaron Judge last played and they’ve scored no more than three runs in six of the nine games. For the season, the Yankees are down to a .299921 OBP as a team. That is truly unbelievable. This is so far short of what a Yankees offense should look like. We’re approaching the halfway mark of the season here. It’s no longer early and this isn’t some short-term team-wide slump. This is what the offense is.

The veterans who the Yankees need to lead the way while Judge is sidelined continue to be total no-shows. Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres are a combined 16-for-133 (.120) with two doubles and six home runs since Judge last played, and five of those 16 hits came Tuesday night. Justin Verlander looked as vulnerable as I’ve ever seen him against the Yankees, yet they let him off the hook repeatedly.

It is remarkable the Yankees are 39-30 despite this offense. The pitching staff has been great overall and yeah, the Yankees did hand a two-run lead over to the bullpen Wednesday night, but the usual high leverage guys weren’t available*, and the bullpen is allowed to have a bad night once in a while. The bullpen has been great overall. The offense? Not so much.

* After the game Aaron Boone confirmed Clay Holmes, Mike King, and Wandy Peralta were all unavailable Wednesday. It would have been four appearances in five days and five appearances in seven days for Holmes and Peralta. It would have been three appearances in four days for King (including one multi-inning outing), who hasn’t pitched back-to-back days once all season (because he usually goes multiple innings). Those guys needed a break Wednesday on top of Thursday's off-day.

The two Subway Series games were fun back-and-forth games. I didn’t feel that extra buzz I usually feel for the Subway Series, but that’s probably a me problem more than a Yankees and Mets problem. The Yankees are 3-5 in their last eight games against the White Sox (30-39), Red Sox (34-25), and Mets (32-36). Not exactly premium competition there. I’m not sure how this team is supposed to start stacking wins unless those veteran hitters actually hit.

Volpe’s adjustment

The only noteworthy thing Hal Steinbrenner said earlier this week is the Yankees are not considering sending Volpe to Triple-A. The front office is not gonna turn around and demote the kid next week or even next month and make the owner look bad, so Volpe’s staying. That means the pressure is on Volpe to get his act together at the plate and start contributing.

“I’ve had zero conversations about (sending Volpe down),” Hal told Hoch. “I think defensively he’s been pretty solid. Pitchers have adjusted to him now. He’s going to have some adjustments to make himself. I don’t think any of this is out of the ordinary. I told Anthony at the end of Spring Training, ‘You are the starting shortstop of the New York Yankees. This isn’t a three-week trial.’ So (he is) going to be that, through the ups and downs.”

Volpe started to make those adjustments this week. He showed up to the Subway Series with a more closed batting stance and standing closer to the plate, and he went 3-for-8 with three doubles in the two games against the Mets. Granted, the second double was generously scored, though Volpe’s fly out in the eighth inning Tuesday was the best contact he made the last two nights (video). Anyway, here are the obligatory before and after GIFs:

After Tuesday’s game Volpe said he went home to New Jersey on Monday’s off-day to visit his parents and also some former minor league teammates at Double-A Somerset, including Austin Wells. They watched video while eating Mama Volpe’s chicken parmesan, Wells pointed a few things out, and Volpe corrected them.

“A little stuff with my stance and how I set up the hip, but it was so small. We both kind of noticed it and started talking about it. I think we both took a lot away from it,” Volpe told Greg Joyce. “... (The closed stance is) just kind of what I’ve always done. Realizing that one way or another you kind of get away from it was obviously frustrating, but it’s nice to know that what I was doing and wasn’t getting results with wasn’t natural, what I always do. So kind of getting back to where I’ve been and where I feel comfortable. Whatever happens from there, I’ll take it.”

In theory, the closed stance and standing closer to the play will prevent Volpe from opening up early, which has been a problem the last few weeks. How much of a difference will it make? Beats me. We’re gonna find out. The early returns are promising, though it is only two games. If nothing else, at least adjustments are being made. Hopefully it all works out and we can look back at this as the chicken parm that turned Volpe’s season around.

“At the end of the day, I gotta earn it every day,” Volpe told Joyce about Hal saying he won’t be demoted. “Nothing really changes from my end. I understand I have a job to do. I just want to help the team win in any way possible.”

(It’s fair to ask why the hitting coaches didn’t pick up on this sooner. Maybe they did and the information wasn’t presented to Volpe in a digestible way? Maybe Wells communicated things more clearly? Teammates have been helping each other since the dawn of time. I bet this stuff happens way more than we know. I will say Wells helping Volpe, along with Aaron Hicks having a strong start with the Orioles, looks bad for the hitting coaches. Whether it actually is bad isn’t for us outsiders to say.)

Another bad Severino start

Let’s start with the good: Luis Severino’s velocity was back up Tuesday. Mostly in his last two innings, but it was back up, and 15 times he hit 97+ mph. He threw only one fastball at 97 mph or better in his previous two starts combined. This is encouraging, right?

What is not encouraging is six runs (five earned) on seven hits, three walks, and a hit batsman in 4.2 innings. Only five swings and misses among 104 pitches, including zero on 18 sliders, and Severino balked twice in one inning. He had only one career balk going into the game*. In the end, it was another bad outing for Severino, his third in three starts since I said he looked as good as ever. Thanks for making me look dumb, Luis.

“To me, I didn’t get better,” Severino told Hoch after the game. “I need to be a better pitcher. I feel like every time they give me the ball, I’m not helping the team right now. I just need to figure out what’s going on, and hopefully I can do that soon.”

* James Smyth says Severino is the first Yankee with two balks in a game since Hideki Irabu in 1997, and the first Yankee with two balks in one inning since Rich Monteleone in 1992. Monteleone came up in the random Yankee feature Tuesday. Hadn't thought about the guy in 25 years and then he comes up twice in a week. Freaky.

The velocity gets all the attention but, to me, location is the biggest issue. You can get outs at a high level at 94-95 mph. But look at the pitch locations. Everything Severino threw was up Tuesday, and when everything is up, it suggests the pitcher is overthrowing. And when a pitcher overthrows, it’s often because he is trying too hard to generate any velocity he’s missing.

Severino has always pitched up in the zone with his fastball, but he was above the zone a bunch Tuesday, plus there are too many yellow and green dots in the middle of the zone. The missing velocity is one piece of the puzzle. The location, and leaving so many hittable pitches over the plate, is another piece, and I believe a larger piece. Either way, there’s a lot going wrong with Severino right now. The performance is poor and he just looks terrible.

“At least the fastball was there today. I need to do a better job putting guys away,” Severino told Gary Phillips. “... I can’t put a finger right now on what’s going on. So I just need to get a deep dive on all my outings and try to figure it out.”

I will say Severino has done a good job battling these last three starts. The Dodgers crushed him in the first inning, but he got through four innings. The White Sox made him work early, and he still completed five innings. The Mets beat up on Severino in the first few innings, yet he was able to get into the fifth. Lesser pitchers are out in the first or second inning. The performance has stunk, no doubt, but Severino is at least battling and giving the Yankees some innings. It’s something.

In a screwed up way, an injury would at least explain things, because if this is healthy Severino, yikes. The Yankees are down three starters (Nestor Cortes, Frankie Montas, Carlos Rodón) and they are weeks away from returning, not days. The Yankees need Severino to be a reliable starter, not just someone who takes the ball every five days. Squint your eyes and there are a few positives to take from the fourth and fifth innings Tuesday. He still seems so far from being himself though.

“Hopefully, he got a little unlocked," Boone told Pete Caldera. “Even though overall it was a rough outing, hopefully it’s also one that he can kind of build on.’’

Quick injury updates

Got a few injury updates to pass along, though I’m not in the mood to give them the full analysis treatment, so let’s do it quick hit style. Here’s the latest, going alphabetically:

Greg Allen (hip): It’ll be a while until we see Allen again. He’s going to miss 6-8 weeks with his hip flexor strain, Boone told Hoch. That presumably makes Allen a 60-day injured list candidate. The 6-8 week timetable puts him on track to return in late July at the earliest.

Harrison Bader (hamstring): Bader went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in a rehab game with Double-A Somerset on Wednesday and is expected to join the Yankees for Friday’s series opener in Boston. I hope (and assume) the corresponding roster move will be Oswaldo Cabrera to Triple-A. Cabrera has 15 plate appearances in the last 19 days. That’s no way to develop a young player.

Deivi García (unknown): Not sure what the injury is, but García was placed on Triple-A Scranton’s injured list Thursday. Deivi’s had another rough year in Triple-A (5.23 ERA and 6.11 FIP with 21.6% strikeouts and 16.2% walks in 31 innings), though his one-game MLB cameo was nice. Jhony Brito, Yoendrys Gómez, Randy Vásquez, and Greg Weissert are the only healthy 40-man roster pitchers in the minors at the moment.

Ian Hamilton (groin): Hamilton will face hitters Thursday in Somerset and could begin a rehab assignment soon. Seems like Hamilton could be back as soon as next weekend? Depends how many rehab games he needs.

Aaron Judge (toe): The Yankees continue to be very cagey about Judge’s injury. They keep saying it’s a tricky injury and he’s doing better, but they’re not giving us a timetable for his return. I have a hard time believing they’re keeping good news from us. I assume Judge will miss a few more weeks, not a few more days. He was eligible to come off the injured list Wednesday.

Carlos Rodón (biceps, back): Rodón will throw his third live batting practice session Thursday. The Yankees will see how he feels afterward, and it’s possible the next step is a rehab game sometime next week. A return the week of July 3rd looks like the best case scenario. That’s enough time for three rehab starts. The Yankees will need to clear a 40-man roster spot when Rodón comes off the 60-day injured list (Allen to the 60-day?).

Ben Rortvedt (wrist): Everyone’s favorite NPC (non-playable catcher) got hurt again. Rortvedt is on the Triple-A injured list with a bone bruise after taking a pitch to the wrist. Boone told Brendan Kuty the Yankees hope it’s a short-term thing, but a) Boone downplays everything, and b) bone bruises are tricky. So are wrist injuries.

Ryan Weber (elbow): He's going the rehab route and will try to avoid Tommy John surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection recently and, even if the rehab is successful, he’s going to miss months, not weeks. Get well soon, Webdog.

Miscellany

What a job by Holmes on Tuesday, striking out Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte with the bases loaded to preserve a one-run lead (video). Throwing a 3-2 slider to Marte takes some guts. Holmes told Bob Klapisch he made a mechanical adjustment when the Yankees were in Tampa a few weeks back (he didn’t give specifics other than indicating it was something with his plant leg), and since then he’s allowed one run in 19 innings with a 32.0% strikeout rate and a 60.5% ground ball rate. He’s been awesome lately … Jake Bauers saw 24 pitches in three plate appearances against Verlander and had terrific at-bats Wednesday. He’s a boom or bust defender in the outfield, it seems like he either makes a great catch or does something dopey, but could you imagine where the Yankees would be without his bat? Or Billy McKinney’s or Willie Calhoun’s? … And finally, Matt Krook is up to 14 days on the active roster without appearing in a game. He warmed up in the first inning Tuesday, when Severino was getting knocked around, and I remember seeing him warm up at some point during the Red Sox series as well. Otherwise no game action for the 28-year-old rookie. Kinda amazing how it always feels like the Yankees are working their bullpen hard while simultaneously having that one reliever who never gets used, isn’t it? The solution: score some damn runs so Krook can pitch in a blowout.

2. Five things you may or may not know about the 2023 Yankees. Time for another edition of random stuff I have on my list to write about, but no obvious place to put it. Just to update the stat I had in the intro last time, lefties are now 2-for-36 (.056) against Wandy Peralta this season, and 66% of their plate appearances have ended with a strikeout or ground ball. Wandy’s dominated lefties. Here are five more things you may or may not know about the 2023 Yankees.

Germán has one of the best curveballs in baseball

Three or four times this season I’ve written “Domingo Germán had maybe his best curveball of the season the other day,” and when you say it that often, that’s just his curveball. It’s not his best of the season. That’s just the pitch at all times. Here are the most effective curveballs in baseball this season, according to Statcast’s pitch values (min. 200 thrown):

1. Charlie Morton: -16 runs (the best pitch in baseball this year, period)
2. Phil Maton: -9 runs
3. Domingo Germán: -6 runs
4. Drew Smyly: -6 runs
5. Alex Lange: -6 runs

(Statcast presents pitch values as negatives, so -6 means the pitch has led to six fewer runs than the average curveball. Kinda confusing, but whatever.)

The curveball is Germán’s most used pitch (41.1%) and it has leveled up this year. Specifically, he is throwing it with a little more velocity and a little less vertical break, so it’s snappier. Here are the numbers on Germán’s curveball:

I gotta be honest, I still don’t fully understand vertical break. Those numbers are not adjusted for gravity, but the numbers that are adjusted for gravity are tiny, and how everything is calculated is above my pay grade. Horizontal break is pretty simple. Vertical break? Nope.

Anyway, Germán is getting more chases and more swinging strikes on this new snappier version of his curveball. Germán got caught with a foreign substance recently, though sticky stuff spin rate increases are usually up around 200 rpm. There’s a correlation between velocity and spin, and the spin rate increase on Germán’s curveball is small enough that it can be explained by the velocity increase.

I’m not gonna call him a season-saver, that’s a bit dramatic, but Germán has really stepped up and done a tremendous job this year. He’s been the team’s second best starter at a time when the non-Gerrit Cole starting staff is littered with injuries and inconsistency. Germán has stabilize things. Well done, Domingo. Nice curveball you have there.

The bullpen’s ground ball rate is one of the best ever

Since hiring pitching coach Matt Blake in Nov. 2019, the Yankees have gravitated toward power sinkers, particularly in the bullpen. Home runs in the late innings can be killers and the Yankees want to limit those, and they have. In the Blake era the Yankees’ bullpen has the lowest home run rate (0.72 HR/9) and highest ground ball rate (52.5%) in baseball. Having the lowest homer rate is rather remarkable given the team’s home ballpark.

Clay Holmes is at the forefront of Blake’s sinker plan, but it’s not just him. It’s also Wandy Peralta and others like Albert Abreu, Miguel Castro, Jimmy Cordero, Joely Rodríguez, Lou Trivino, Ryan Weber, and Greg Weissert. Jonathan Loáisiga and Mike King switched to sinkers full-time under Blake as well. Strikeouts are the best possible outcome. They can’t hurt you. After that, the best way to limit damage is keeping the ball on the ground, and the Yankees’ bullpen excels at that.

The bullpen has taken its ground ball ability to another level this season. The bullpen doesn’t just lead baseball in ground ball rate. It has one of the highest ground ball rates since batted ball data started being recorded in 2002. Here are the highest bullpen ground ball rates on record:

1. 2015 White Sox: 53.4%
2. 2012 Giants: 52.6%
2. 2023 Yankees: 52.5%
3. 2014 White Sox: 52.1%
5. 2013 Pirates: 52.0%
…
24. 2023 Mariners: 49.7% (second best in 2023)

The last bullpen with a 50% ground ball rate in a full 162-game season was the 2017 Diamondbacks at 50.6%, and only 19 teams have done it since 2002. That’s 19 out of 660 individual bullpen units, and 14 of the 19 came before 2015, which was roughly the start of the launch angle era. This bullpen’s ground ball ability is historically great.

Right field has been very unproductive

Here’s an unexpected one: Yankees right fielders are hitting .185/.264/.440 (89 wRC+) this season, and that power-heavy 89 wRC+ ranks 24th among the 30 teams. The right fielders have hit 18 home runs, the second most in baseball, so I guess that’s good. Baseball Reference has Yankees right fielders at +0.8 WAR. FanGraphs is a bit kinder at +2.3 WAR.

Considering the Yankees just sunk nine years and $360M into the reigning AL MVP, who also happens to play right field, what gives? What gives is Aaron Judge has not played much right field this season. He spent a bunch of time in center field early in the year and a bunch of time on the injured list more recently. Here is the right field starts leaderboard:

1. Aaron Judge: 22
2. Franchy Cordero: 12
3. Oswaldo Cabrera: 11
4. Jake Bauers: 10
5. Willie Calhoun: 7
6. Giancarlo Stanton: 5
7. Greg Allen: 1
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 1

Judge has started only 22 of the team’s 69 games in right field and he’s taken only 98 of their 279 right field plate appearances, or 35%. His batting average is lower than what we’re used to but Judge has hit .224/.378/.645 (167 wRC+) with 10 home runs in those 98 plate appearances as a right fielder. He’s been great overall at his usual position.

All those other non-Judge right fielders have combined to hit .169/.199/.349 (~46 wRC+) with eight home runs in 181 plate appearances. A .199 OBP from a corner outfield spot, even in only – “only” – 181 plate appearance. Yikes, man. Freaking yiiikes. This offense, it’s bad.

The Yankees are the best team in the National League

Well, technically tied with the Blue Jays, but the Yankees have the best record against NL teams this season. Here are the best winning percentages against NL teams this year:

1. Yankees: 12-5 (.705)
2. Blue Jays: 12-5 (.705)
3. Braves: 29-13 (.690)
4. Rays: 14-7 (.667)
5. Astros: 13-7 (.650)

The NL teams the Yankees have played this year: Giants (2-1), Phillies (2-1), Reds (3-0), Padres (2-1), Dodgers (2-1), and Mets (1-1). Going 12-5 against the NL means the Yankees are 27-15 against the AL, and the AL is the superior and more competitive league this season. The Yankees are 11-12 against the AL East, the game’s toughest division.

I honestly wouldn’t read too much into this. We could slice and dice the schedule in any number of ways to make whatever point we want to make. I just stumbled across a fun, random fact and am presenting it here with no conclusions drawn. Onward.

LeMahieu’s strikeout rate increase is the largest this century

Even after going 2-for-8 with a double and a homer in the Subway Series, DJ LeMahieu is hitting .236/.296/.395 (90 wRC+) on the season, and that ain’t gonna cut it. He’s hit .174/.211/.302 (33 wRC+) over the last calendar month. Maybe it’s just a (very) bad slump, but with his 35th birthday coming up, LeMahieu very well might be washed. I hope not.

The most startling thing about LeMahieu’s season is the strikeouts. He struck out 63 times this year and could match last year’s total (71) within a week. LeMahieu’s 26.3% strikeout rate is more than double last year’s 13.1% strikeout rate, and far above his career 14.9% strikeout rate. LeMahieu has been one of the game’s great bat-to-ball guys throughout his career. Now he’s running a strikeout rate on par with Giancarlo Stanton’s (28.1% from 2021-23).

LeMahieu’s 13.2-percentage point increase in strikeout rate from last year is easily the largest in baseball among the 206 players with at least 500 plate appearances last season and 200 plate appearances this season. Old pal Thairo Estrada is a distant second with a 7.5-percentage point increase. Only 10 others have more than a 5.0-percentage point increase.

LeMahieu’s strikeout rate increase is the largest this season and also the largest from one year to the next this century. Excluding 2019-20 and 2020-21 because we all want to forget the 60-game pandemic season, here are the largest year-to-year strikeout rate increases this century among players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title both years:

1. 2022-23 DJ LeMahieu: +13.2% (13.1% to 26.3%)
2. 2009-10 Colby Rasmus: +9.4% (18.3% to 27.7%)
3. 2016-17 Yonder Alonso: +8.7% (13.9% to 22.6%)
4. 2011-12 Josh Hamilton: +8.2% (17.3% to 25.5%)
5. 2005-06 Bill Hall: +7.8% (18.9% to 26.6%)

I had to look this up manually and I’m not willing to put in the work to go back further than 2000, so I can’t tell you the last player with a year-to-year strikeout rate increase as large as LeMahieu’s. Besides, even the biggest strikeout rate increases were small around the turn of the century (in the 3% to 4% range), which makes sense because it wasn’t until the late-2000s and early-2010s that strikeouts really exploded. I think I went back far enough.

Also, this season is only 43% complete and I’m certain there were other very large strikeout rate increases in the first 43% of the season that were whittled down in the final 57%. I’m sure there have been others with a 10-percentage point strikeout rate increase at this point in the season. Looking that up would be too painstaking. I’m giving you an incomplete but technically accurate picture.

Point is, LeMahieu’s strikeout rate increase is enormous, and currently the largest this century. His exit velocity and barrel rate and all that are still really good. In line with his 2019-21 peak, even recently. LeMahieu can still drive the ball when he makes contact. He’s just making less contact, both in and out of the zone. LeMahieu’s swinging and missing much more.

This, needless to say, is worrisome. The classic tells of a slowing bat are an increase in swings and misses, an increase in chases, and an increase in ground balls. I suppose the good news is LeMahieu’s chase rate and ground ball rate are in line with his career averages. The bad news is his skyrocketing strikeout rate. When a soon-to-be 35-year-old contact guy stops making contact, yeah, alarm bells should be ringing.

(LeMahieu is on pace for 563 plate appearances. If he manages to strike out 13.1% of the time (last year’s strikeout rate) from now through the end of the season, he’d finish the year with an 18.7% strikeout rate. That’s better than the league average but would still be a career high.)

3. 2023 draft prospect: Colorado HS SS Walker Martin. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Martin is this draft’s great unknown. Everyone agrees he has tremendous physical gifts, though he is his high school team’s quarterback, and he skipped a lot of baseball showcases because of football obligations. But the showcases he did attend, he wowed. Also, Martin is already 19 and has a February birthday, making him one of the oldest high schoolers in the draft class.

Furthermore, Colorado is not a baseball hotbed. Martin has faced poor competition, hence his .633/.722/1.634 line this spring. He led the nation with 20 homers in only 29 games. All together, Martin is a player who a) didn’t play in many showcase events but did well in the showcases he attended, b) hasn’t focused on baseball full-time, c) faced poor competition in high school, and d) has typically been older than his competition. Got all that? Here are the rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 33
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 28
• FanGraphs: Outside top 36
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 54
• MLB.com: No. 28

At Perfect Game last summer Martin put up top of the class exit velocities and good but not elite throw velocities, and he graded out surprisingly well in their swing efficiency metric. Better than a lot of the more seasoned high schoolers considered slam dunk first rounders. Here’s video and here’s part of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) since it’s the most informative:

(He has) wowed scouts with a sweet, lefthanded swing. Martin has a lean and projectable, 6-foot-2, 185-pound frame and impressive feel for the barrel with line drive power in batting practice and some pull-side game power as well. He has sound hitting mechanics with quick bat speed through the zone and does an excellent job staying balanced in his lower half, with a steady, quiet head throughout his swing. Scouts raved about his hitting potential, and while he’s mostly a line drive, gap-to-gap hitter now it would be unsurprising to see him get to average power in the future … Martin has turned in above-average and plus run times in workout settings, and he’s also a terrific athlete with one of the best Loden scores in the prep class. A shortstop now, Martin will need to improve his hands and actions to stick at the position, but he could grow into the power that would allow him to profile nicely at third if he’s forced to move.

Loden scores, eh? Loden Sports grades athleticism using biometric data, which they adjust for size and many other factors. Spencer Jones graded out so well that Loden classified him as an outlier athlete. MLB.com adds Martin has a “good swing with excellent rhythm at the plate, showing no difficulty in squaring up balls against elite competition, albeit in a small sample size.”

Older high school players have a higher bust rate than age appropriate players, but the Yankees did use recent first round picks on 19-year-olds Blake Rutherford* and Anthony Seigler, so they’re willing to take older high schoolers. Then again, Rutherford and Seigler didn’t work out, so perhaps the Yankees have adjusted their draft model and their preferences. I honestly have no idea.

* I was curious so I looked it up: Rutherford, now 26, is hitting .341/.387/.619 (166 wRC+) in 31 games with the Nationals’ Double-A affiliate this year. They signed him as a minor league free agent over the winter. Rutherford hit .250/.298/.416 (87 wRC+) with the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate from 2021-22. He didn’t work out as a prospect, but at least he was a useful trade chip.

It’s so easy to dream on a kid like Martin. He has great physical tools and he stood out against premium competition in showcases, and once you get him under pro instruction and focused on baseball full-time, he’ll take off. That’s the dream. Then again, that same thinking got Bubba Starling drafted No. 5 overall in 2011. He never did refine his baseball skills or learn how to hit a breaking ball.

For what it’s worth, Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Jonathan Mayo said the Giants (No. 16 pick) and Braves (No. 23) are in on Martin in their most recent mock drafts. Those two teams have a pretty good idea what they’re doing, particularly Atlanta when it comes to the draft, so I take that as a good sign for Martin. Two smart teams are interested in him.

The Yankees have been connected to high school shortstops in recent weeks and Martin is the most boom or bust of that group. They went boom or bust in the first round with Jones last year. Would they do it in back-to-back years? Or do they want to play it safe, especially after forfeiting two picks to sign Carlos Rodón? I don’t know, but Martin sure sounds fun and exciting.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) report MLB and team officials have discussed what amounts to a front office salary cap. The owners want to limit how much they’re spending on scouting, player development, technology, etc. They’re just looking to cut costs further, though cutting spending on the people and things that innovate and help move your organization forward seems kinda dumb. Not my problem though. Just wanted to pass that along, and while I do that, allow me to link off to R.J. Anderson’s piece on the possibility of front office unionization. Good stuff, that is.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Rich asks: The other day, I was looking at the Yankee statistics on espn.com and noticed that Aaron Judge had a dWAR of -0.7, worst on the team. According to the advanced stats, on what kinds of defensive plays has Judge not been good? Beyond the small sample size argument, in what parts of his defensive game has there been a decline in contrast to past years?

Geez, -0.7 dWAR, huh? That would be bad for a full season. It’s awful for 38 games in the field (Judge has 11 games at DH). Judge’s -0.7 dWAR is a bottom 20 mark in baseball and on par with noted defensive butchers like Alec Bohm and Jorge Soler. For what it’s worth, Judge is at -5 DRS and +1 OAA this season. (DRS is used in the dWAR calculation.)

Looking at the components of DRS, Judge has gotten dinged most for his range, and also some for his arm. As far as I know DRS breakdowns of individual plays are not available publicly, so just searching through Statcast, this play had a 65% catch probability but was not made, for example. Here are the numbers on Judge’s throwing:

Judge hold rate in RF: 52.0% in 2023 (57.0% from 2021-22)
MLB hold rate in RF: 46.3%

Judge hold rate in CF: 38.5% in 2023 (59.1% in 2022)
MLB hold rate in CF: 44.6%

Judge has not thrown a runner out yet and, in English, those numbers mean opponents are running a little more on Judge this year than in the past. But we’re also talking about 13 attempts in center and 25 in right. If Judge plays center in his first game back, stops two runners from going first-to-third, suddenly his hold rate is up to 46.7%.

I wouldn’t put much stock into 327.1 innings worth of defensive stats, but Judge did just turn 31 and he’s a big dude. If these small sample defensive stats are an early sign he’s slowing down in the field, it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world. I’m surprised Judge rates as poorly as he has in the early going. Let’s check back later in the season and see where he’s at.

Mike asks: We're all assuming Josh Donaldson will be gone after 2023, but should we be so sure? The Yankees owe him $16MM next year, or a $6MM buyout. The $10MM delta on what will be a one-year contract isn't all that much. The guy can still field, and the power still seems there. Think he survives one more season?

Mike sent in this question a few hours before last Saturday’s game. Donaldson went deep the night before and at the time was 4-for-19 with four homers in his six games off the injured list, all while playing his typically excellent defense. Say what you want about the bat, but Donaldson can still play the crap out of third base. I would be comfortable with the ball being hit at him in a “make this play or the season is over” situation.

Following the Subway Series, Donaldson is 4-for-30 (.133) with four homers and 10 strikeouts since returning from the injured list and he’s hitting .130/.212/.457 (75 wRC+) in 52 plate appearances this season. In limited action his strikeout and walk rates have continued to move in bad directions, though his contact quality remains strong, so I guess he has that going for him.

Unless he gets really hot and hits something like .275/.350/.500 the rest of the year while reining in the strikeouts, I just can’t see any way Donaldson returns. The $10M price tag isn’t much at all (that’s Brandon Belt money in free agency) but there are red flags aplenty, and I also think the Yankees are eager to clear the infield logjam, and get younger and more athletic (and cheaper).

My tepid take is Donaldson hitting all those home runs after returning is a bad thing. The Yankees lost those games, so it’s not like his homers put a W on the ledger, and it gave the team an excuse to keep him in the lineup ("See! The power is still there!"). In 2020, there was that “maybe they’ll pick up the option and keep him?” feeling whenever J.A. Happ had a good start, but nah, the Yankees were never gonna keep him. They’re not keeping Donaldson either.

(I think it is far, far more likely the Yankees release Donaldson this season than bring him back next season, not that I think the odds they release him are particularly good.)

Paul asks: You know how we see the stats on how a pitcher does the first/second/third time through the order? Do they have the flip side of that? How do the Yankees hitters do against opposing starters the first time through the order? Feels like they're frequently 0-fer.

Yeah, it does feel like the Yankees get no-hit once through the lineup once a series, doesn’t it? The Yankees have scored 35 runs in the first inning (18th most in baseball) and 100 runs in innings 1-3 (also 18th most), so they’re middle of the pack. Here are the offense’s numbers each time through the lineup (starting pitchers only):

NYY first time thru lineup: .204/.275/.357 (.278 wOBA) in 615 PA
MLB first time thru lineup: .248/.315/.411 (.317 wOBA)

NYY second time thru lineup: .247/.296/.461 (.325 wOBA) in 590 PA
MLB second time thru lineup: .254/.317/.426 (.323 wOBA)

NYY third+ time thru lineup: .233/.301/.430 (.317 wOBA) in 332 PA
MLB third+ time thru lineup: .263/.329/.443 (.335 wOBA)

The Yankees performing worse the third+ time through than the second is a bit wonky, but it could be a sample size thing at this point in the season. The larger point is yes, the Yankees positively stink the first time through the lineup. Far worse than the league average. Their numbers the second and third+ time through are a bit more representative.

Jon asks: If the Padres have to reevaluate payroll in the midst of the regional sports network collapse (and how mediocre they've been), how would you prioritize their big contract players in terms of who would fit as trade targets?

The fact the Padres extended Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth after Diamond Sports Group filed bankruptcy is a pretty good indication they’re not worried the cable bubble bursting will hurt the bottom line much. Maybe they decide to shake things up though, and move a player so they can use the money in other ways.

San Diego has six (!) players under contract through at least 2027. One of them is not Juan Soto, who will become a free agent after next season is atop my “Padres player I want” power rankings. Here’s how I would prioritize those six Padres signed through at least 2027 in the hypothetical scenario they become available at some point:

1. Fernando Tatis Jr.: $29.7M luxury tax hit from 2024-34 ($327M total)
Easy call for No. 1, no? There have been off-the-field headaches and a performance-enhancing drug suspension, but Tatis is only 24 and his .283/.341/.561 (145 wRC+) line this season is a career worst. The guy went 3-for-4 with two doubles, a homer, a walk, two stolen bases, a sliding catch, and an outfield assist Wednesday (video). He’s dynamic. Also, that $29.7M luxury tax hit qualifies as a bargain for a top tier hitter these days. It would be the 17th highest luxury tax hit in 2023, just ahead of Chris Sale.

2. Manny Machado: $33.7M luxury tax hit from 2024-33 ($337M total)
3. Xander Bogaerts: $25M luxury tax hit from 2024-33 ($255M total)
They’re roughly the same age (Machado is three months older) and comparable hitters. I have Machado over Bogaerts because of his superior glove. He’s a magician at third and Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu show elite infield defense can age well. I think the defense makes up for the difference in money, which the Yankees could easily afford anyway. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who prefers Bogaerts to Machado.

4. Joe Musgrove: $20M luxury tax hit from 2024-27 ($80M total)
Musgrove missed the start of the season because he dropped a kettlebell on his toe in Spring Training and broke it, and he’s still getting up to speed. He’s a comfortably above-average starter on a reasonable contract. At a time when guys like Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker get four years and $70M-ish, I would happily take Musgrove at four years and $80M. I considered him at No. 2 over Machado and Bogaerts.

5. Yu Darvish: $16.8M luxury tax hit from 2024-28 ($84M total)
Similar to the Yankees with LeMahieu and Aaron Hicks, the Padres stretched Darvish’s recent extension out over an additional 2-3 years to lower the luxury tax hit. He’s now signed through age 41 and that’s kinda scary for a guy who’s had a huge career workload between MLB and Japan. Darvish is still very good, but that contract comes with a ton of downside risk.

6. Jake Cronenworth: $11.4M luxury tax hit from 2024-30 ($80M total)
It’s very affordable on an annual basis and he’s a solid player, though Cronenworth turns 30 in January and he’s performed a little worse each year since hitting .285/.354/.477 (126 wRC+) as a rookie during the 60-game pandemic season. He’s currently a first baseman (who could play second or third) with a .216/.332/.377 (97 wRC+) line. Why San Diego rushed to extend him three years before free agency, I do not know. The worst contracts are long-term deals for good but not truly great players (see: Hicks). This here is one of ‘em.

Every single one of these contracts has no-trade protection. Bogaerts, Darvish, and Machado have full no-trade clauses. Tatis has a full no-trade clause through 2028 and then a 13-team no-trade clause from 2029-34. Musgrove has a full no-trade clause from 2024-26 and a 13-team no-trade clause in 2017. Cronenworth has an eight-team no-trade clause every year. Even if the Padres want to dump one or all of these guys, there are no-trade clauses to navigate. No reason to think any of them are going anywhere anytime soon though, regardless of the cable situation.

Ray asks: Jonathan India will soon be without a spot in the Reds since Matt McLain probably moves to second Elly De La Cruz takes over short. The Reds had already talked about moving India to left so … does he make sense for the Yankees and if he does what would a package look like?

I sat on this question a little too long and the Reds have since called up Elly De La Cruz, who is electrifying. So much power, so much speed. Can’t take your eyes off him. The Reds called up McLain, another top shortstop prospect, last month too. De La Cruz and McLain have spent their time at short and third, with Jonathan India manning his usual second base.

The Reds have even more infield prospects on the way, leading to speculation India could be on the trade block. He’s the oldest and closest to free agency among Cincinnati’s infielders, so he would be the one to go. The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year had a down year amid injuries last season, though he’s bounced back to hit .278/.361/.433 (111 wRC+) this year.

India, 26, is a contact and plate discipline guy (18.0% strikeouts, 9.5% walks, 6.9% swinging strikes) more than a power guy (eight homers), and that’s fine. The Yankees could use a good count-worker who puts the ball on the ball consistently. He’s a right-handed hitter, which isn’t ideal for the current lineup, but India is a good hitter who would make the Yankees better.

The question with India is – and has been since he was the No. 5 pick in the 2018 draft – his position. He was drafted as a third baseman, but he doesn’t have the arm for the hot corner (India has one of the worst infield arms, per Statcast), so the Reds stuck him at second base, where his range is lacking. India is at -17 DRS and -17 OAA in his career.

Could the outfield work? Beats me. Perhaps the Yankees could hide him in Yankee Stadium’s small right field. Problem there is right field is taken in the Bronx for another 8.5 years, or at least the next 4-5 years, I would think. First base might be India’s long-term home. He’s a good player and an imperfect fit, but if you like the player enough, you find a way to get him in the lineup.

India is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2026 season. There haven’t been any trades involving 3.5 years of an above-average position player at recent deadlines, so here’s what the Trade Values site says:

The Reds did a good job turning Luis Castillo into multiple top 100 prospects last year and India is their best or second best trade chip, along with Alexis Díaz. I’m not sure stacking a bunch of Grade-B prospects together until the Reds say yes is realistic. They might prefer one impact prospect to two or three good prospects, which likely means Jasson Domínguez.

I wish India’s position was less uncertain. The Yankees need a long-term third baseman and he would be great fit there if he had the arm for third. Is this a “get the good young hitter and figure out the position later” situation? I kinda feel like you have to go into a massive trade like this with a pretty good idea how the pieces will fit. I like India and he interests me, but it’s imperfect.

Ben asks: Think Candelario might be a target for the Yankees if Donaldson continues to suck and they don't give Peraza a shot at 3B? LHB, no shift has helped him.

Decent chance Jeimer Candelario represents the Nationals at the All-Star Game this year. He took a .248/.328/.440 (107 wRC+) line into Wednesday’s game, which looks closer to his .271/.351/.443 (120 wRC+) line in 2021 than his .217/.272/.361 (80 wRC+) line in 2022. Candelario runs average-ish contact and walk rates, he’s a switch-hitter who’s better against righties, and he’s very short porch friendly. Here is his spray chart as a lefty batter:

Candelario’s third base defense has been awful most of his career (-19 DRS entering 2022) but it rates as plus this year (+3 DRS and +4 OAA). I don’t know whether that’s a small sample size thing or legitimate improvement. The Nationals are quite bad and not getting much coverage these days. I haven’t seen anything on Candelario’s defensive work. I’m inclined to put more stock into his 2016-22 defensive performance than his 62 games of work in 2023.

The Tigers non-tendered Candelario over the winter and the Nationals wisely gave him a cheap one-year deal ($5M). He’s going to be a free agent after the season, so they’ll either trade him or extend him. As good as he’s been this year, I doubt Candelario is a qualifying offer candidate. Here are the comparable rental bats traded at last year’s deadline:

• Andrew Benintendi (Royals to Yankees): Traded for three third tier pitching prospects.
• Brandon Drury (Reds to Padres): Traded for one second tier infield prospect.
• Joey Gallo (Yankees to Dodgers): Traded for one second tier pitching prospect.
• Robbie Grossman (Tigers to Braves): Traded for one third tier pitching prospect.
• David Peralta (Diamondbacks to Rays): Traded for one third tier catching prospect.
• Tommy Pham (Reds to Red Sox): Traded for one third tier pitching prospect.

Non-elite rental bats don’t bring back a huge return. Candelario switch-hits, doesn’t strike out excessively, it looks like he’d fit well with the short porch, and he has experience at first base in addition to third. Given all the injuries this season, I don’t think the Yankees wouldn’t have much trouble getting him into the lineup daily. Candelario would be a nice depth addition (as the No. 1 offensive addition, his bat is probably a bit light).

To me, giving up one or two mid-range prospects to get Candelario is worth it. I would rather give up the Benintendi package (Chandler Champlain, T.J. Sikkema, Beck Way) than the Gallo package (Clayton Beeter), but I wouldn’t lose any sleep over trading a Beeter type either. The Yankees should get the help they need and put the team in the best position to win while Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole are in their prime, not haggle over small differences in prospect value.

This is a quick mailbag answer rather than a deep dive, but I came into this expecting to give Candelario a great big meh, but I like it. The Yankees could put him at third, first, or DH depending on the day's need, and Candelario would be what, the Yankees’ third best hitter right now? It shouldn’t cost much and there’s no long-term risk. I dig it.

A different Mike asks: The deGrom news is brutal for baseball fans. I hope he makes a full recovery, but the odds are against him ever pitching at the same level given this age, and that this is his second TJ. So, two part question … If we have seen the best days of deGrom, is his 2018-2019 run the best stretch of pitching in the modern era? Maybe Bob Gibson in the late 60s? Also, he’s currently a career 44.6 WAR player. Magic number for the HOF is usually roughly 60. He’s frequently hurt, and as a result has amassed all of that WAR in only 215 career games, which is staggering. If this is it for deGrom (or close to it) is he in or out of the Hall of Fame?

Who’s to say deGrom is done as an elite pitcher? Justin Verlander had Tommy John surgery at 37 and won a Cy Young in his first year back. The second Tommy John surgery is riskier than the first, but it’s not as risky as it once was. Nathan Eovaldi has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year and he’s had his greatest success after his second Tommy John surgery. We’ll see what happens with deGrom. I hope he comes back and dominates.

To answer the first question, 1999-2000 Pedro Martinez is the gold standard for pitching peaks. He was in the AL East at the height of the Steroid Era and his league adjusted numbers were off the charts. Pedro had a 1.74 ERA in 2000 and the next best in the American League was Roger Clemens at 3.70. Just bonkers stuff. Here’s the comparison:

(If you’re reading this, chances are you know how + stats work. If not: 100 is league average and the bigger the number, the better the player performed relative to the rest of the league. The smaller the number, the worse he performed relative to league average.)

Pedro is on another level here. deGrom was outstanding those two years, but Martinez put up elite reliever numbers as a 215-inning starter during his two-year peak, and he did it in a hitter’s park in a tough division. deGrom still got to face pitchers hitting from 2018-19, and his home park was much more pitcher friendly. Gotta go 1999-2000 Pedro over 2018-19 deGrom, and 2018-19 deGrom was great.

Other pitchers with historically dominant two-year spans: 2001-02 Randy Johnson (+20.8 WAR), 1997-98 Roger Clemens (+20.1 WAR), 1994-95 Greg Maddux (+18.2 WAR), 1990-91 Roger Clemens (+18.4 WAR), and 1968-69 Bob Gibson (+21.6 WAR). There are many others out there, but those guys stand out from the rest. Those are all-time great two-year spans.

As for the second question, I think deGrom is short of the Hall of Fame unless he comes back and has another 2-3 years that look like 2018 and 2019. That’s a lot to ask, especially since he’ll be in his late 30s. Sandy Koufax had a short career with an insanely high peak, though Koufax’s short career was 2,324.1 innings. deGrom is at 1,356.1. Getting to 2,000 might be a challenge.

The best modern comparison for deGrom might be Johan Santana. Santana had a short Hall of Fame caliber peak (+23.5 WAR from 2014-06) and barely cleared 2,000 career innings (finished with 2,025.2 innings). Johan fell off the Hall of Fame ballot in his first year of eligibility. He received the same number of votes as Jamie Moyer. I’m not joking.

Unless he adds a few excellent seasons to resume when he returns from Tommy John surgery, I think deGrom winds up a Hall of Very Good player alongside guys like Santana, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, and maybe Corey Kluber and Brandon Webb. They did it at a Hall of Fame level at their peaks, but they didn’t do it long enough. Sucks, but making the Hall of Fame is hard.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)