June 9th, 2023: Judge, Cortes, Rodón, Weber, Bader, Severino, Schmidt, McKinney, Mailbag

Between off-days, postponements, and the West Coast trip, it feels like it’s been a month since the Yankees played a normal schedule. They've been playing at some odd hour or under an apocalyptic sky or not at all. Hopefully things get back to normal soon, in more ways than one. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Injury updates. Been another tough few days on the injury front. The Yankees lead baseball in days lost to injury (by a lot) and they have 12 players on the injured list. That is somehow not the most (or even the second or third most) in baseball. The Dodgers and Reds each have 14 players on the injured list, and the Tigers have 13. Still, 12 is enough for me. Here’s the latest on the injured Yankees.

Judge to the injured list

In the end, the stupid Dodger Stadium fence succeeded in sending Aaron Judge to the injured list. Judge was officially placed on the injured list Wednesday (backdated to Sunday) with what the Yankees called a right great toe sprain. He also has a bruise. There is no fracture and Judge received a platelet-rich plasma injection during Tuesday night’s game.

“The biggest thing now is trying to get the swelling out of there. He saw improvements today, but now we’re just trying to see where we are in the coming weeks or days,” Aaron Boone told Matthew Ritchie. “... I think it definitely could have been worse. I feel like he’s going to be alright, just needs some time now. Hopefully, it’s on the shorter side of things, but the biggest thing is getting the swelling out of there. Look, any time you lose Aaron Judge for any amount of time and he goes on the IL — hopefully it’s a short one – you don’t like that.”

The Yankees did not give a timetable for Judge’s return, which doesn’t reassure me this will be “on the shorter side of things” (Boone said they should have a better idea of how long Judge will be out this weekend). The Baseball Prospectus Injury Ledger has only two great toe sprains in its database dating back to 2018, which required 13-day and 18-day stints on the injured list. For all toe sprains, the average is 26 days. We just have to hope for the best.

We watched DJ LeMahieu become a shell of himself in the second half last year because of a toe injury, and while it was a different injury (LeMahieu had a fractured sesamoid bone), it showed how much you need your toes to hit. Everything in this game starts from the ground up. If you don’t have a solid base underneath you, you’re not gonna hit hard or throw hard. Judge at 75% is better than most players at 100%, but still, getting a compromised Judge when he returns would be very bad.

The Yankees rely so heavily on Judge, especially offensively, and now it’s on the other veterans to pick up the slack. Anthony Volpe and fill-ins like Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun will be in the lineup as well, so they have to contribute too, but it’s really on the veterans to do the heavy lifting. And do the heavy lifting they have not lately:

• DJ LeMahieu: .223/.281/.351 (73 wRC+) since May 1st
• Anthony Rizzo: 9-for-48 (.188) with no homers and 15 strikeouts in his last 12 games
• Gleyber Torres: 11-for-55 (.200) with one homer in his last 13 games

Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are in that veteran group as well, though they only have a handful of games under their belts since returning. These five guys – Donaldson, LeMahieu, Rizzo, Stanton, Torres – went a combined 0-for-15 in the first game of the doubleheader Thursday. That’s just not gonna cut it.

The Yankees are a game on a Wild Card spot. Where will they be when Judge returns? I’ve kinda given up on the division, but even if you hold out hope, the Yankees have to solidify their Wild Card position before they can think about the AL East. That’s just how the math works. Judge being out is an opening for the Blue Jays in particular to reclaim postseason position.

It’s only June though, so don’t worry too much about who sits in what Wild Card spot. The bigger issue is Judge is on the injured list for the second time this year, and the difference between the Yankees with Judge and the Yankees without Judge is massive. It’s shocking, really. One player shouldn’t have that big of an impact on his team in this sport, but Judge does. Get well soon, Captain. The Yankees need you.

"There's no timetable really, which I think is best,” Judge told Bryan Hoch. “Because there's a couple things going on in there. So I think they don't want to say a timetable and then it's a couple of weeks longer or a couple of weeks less. I think it's more based on how it's feeling."

(Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Dodgers are going to reinforce the fence and add padding to cover the exposed concrete where Judge banged his foot. Better late than never, I guess. The Dodgers should have to lend Mookie Betts to the Yankees while Judge is on the injured list. It’s only fair.)

Cortes has shoulder strain

As expected, Nestor Cortes was placed on the injured list Thursday. He has a left rotator cuff strain and received a cortisone shot Tuesday. Nestor told Pete Caldera he is shut down from throwing for 15 days. Add in the build-up period and all that and Cortes is looking at what, 4-6 weeks on the shelf? Seems about right for a shoulder strain.

“During the start (in Seattle), it wasn’t bothering me. It was just the recovery in-between where it would take a little bit longer than usual to get right,” Cortes told Ritchie. “It just got harder to get non-sore. After Seattle – I usually don’t throw the day after I pitch – I took that day off and then we had an off-day. When I got to LA and threw that first day, it didn’t feel right. That second day in LA was when I said something, because it felt like I had just pitched yesterday. So, I wasn’t recovering on time.”

Randy Vásquez got the start in Nestor’s place Thursday and was great, and because he was the 27th man for the doubleheader, he had to go down after the game. Thanks to all these June off-days, the Yankees don’t need their No. 5 starter again until June 24th, and they’ll only need their No. 5 three times between now and the All-Star break. That softens the blow a bit, though giving the other starters extra rest will be a bit more challenging. It is what it is.

Just looking at where we are in the calendar, it’s entirely possible we won’t see Cortes again until after the All-Star break. It’s only a month away. Hopefully the cortisone shot and rest take care of whatever’s ailing him and Nestor comes back as an above-average starter. At this point, I am all for the Yankees trading for a starter at the deadline. Get a starter and don’t bank on a bunch of injured pitchers coming back good as new (and staying healthy the rest of the year).

Rodón faces hitters

Carlos Rodón has taken a significant step forward with his rehab work. He faced hitters Wednesday for the first time since being shut down with his achy back a few weeks ago. Rodón threw 20 or so pitches and he did it in the smoke at Yankee Stadium. He’s gonna go from a forearm strain to back stiffness to black lung. Great. Here’s some video.

“It was good. Hoping the next one I can refine some stuff, put the ball in the zone a little more,” Rodón told Max Goodman after Wednesday’s live batting practice session. “Stepping on the mound and facing hitters, that’s a step towards the end goal of pitching here for the boys.”

Rodón threw to Jake Bauers and Oswaldo Cabrera – “Jake said he thought it was coming out good,” Rodón told Mark Sanchez – and threw all his pitches, and he told Gary Phillips he sat around 92-94 mph. If Rodón is to be believed, that’s good velocity considering he was 92-95 mph in his lone Grapefruit League start. This was just a live BP with minimal adrenaline.

Most importantly, Rodón came through Wednesday’s session well and he will throw another live BP Sunday, Boone told Phillips. He’ll likely throw at least more live BP after that before getting into rehab games. This seems like the best case scenario:

• Sunday, June 11th: Second live BP (three days rest)
• Friday, June 16th: Third live BP (normal rest)
• Wednesday, June 21st: First rehab game (normal rest)
• Tuesday, June 27th: Second rehab game (extra day of rest because Monday is the universal off-day in the minors)
• Sunday, July 2nd: Third rehab game (normal rest)
• Friday, July 7th: First MLB game (home vs. Cubs) (normal rest)

The All-Star break is the week of July 10th, so if the Yankees determine Rodón needs an extra live BP or a fourth rehab start, he won’t come back until after the All-Star Game. They could also decide Rodón doesn’t need a third live BP or a third rehab start (or both) and bring him back either late this month or very early next month. I’d bet against it, but maybe?

The important thing is Rodón faced hitters and came through it okay. Before he couldn’t even get through a simple bullpen session without his back bothering him. He still has a ways to go before he makes his Yankees debut, but Rodón is the closest he’s been to joining the Yankees since he was shut down following his Spring Training start. Progress is being made.

Weber has UCL strain

Ryan Weber does indeed have a damaged elbow ligament, though apparently it’s not a full tear. He’s currently deciding between rehab and Tommy John surgery, and if it was a full tear, rehab wouldn’t be an option. Either way, we won’t see Weber for a while. He was put on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot for Billy McKinney (more on him in a bit).

“Weber’s got a UCL strain. Now it's determining a course of action," Boone said earlier this week (video). "If it's going to be rehab with time down. Surgery is on the table. No decision on that yet."

Not a whole lot to say here. Weber did fine work the last few weeks, soaking up 14.1 mostly low leverage innings with 3.14 ERA (4.54 FIP). He’s also the kinda guy who is one bad outing or even one extended outing away from getting designated for assignment to make way for a fresh arm. At least Weber got hurt with the Yankees and not the RailRiders. He’ll accrue service time and collect big league paychecks while on the injured list.

“I kind of made myself that long guy or that Swiss Army knife,” Weber told Sanchez. “The timing of it (stinks). Kind of in a groove and then this happens. It’s just bum luck.”

Bader unlikely to return Friday

Just a quick update on Harrison Bader. He won’t be activated when eligible Friday, but he has been increasing his workouts and isn’t too far away. Bader has been going through agility drills. I’m not sure if he’s started hitting yet. The Yankees have an off-day Monday and another off-day Thursday. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees are planning to have Bader continue his rehab work through next week, then activate him for Friday’s game in Boston. We’ll see.

“(Hamstrings) can be tricky and you don’t want to come back too soon, especially with the position I play,” Bader told Erik Boland earlier this week. “... Definitely going to take the next few days to build up appropriately and keep adding speed to what I’m doing. That’s the biggest thing. I can do everything right now, it’s just a matter of doing it at the speed where not only can I be successful for myself, but more importantly for the team.”

2. Weekday thoughts. Yankees vs. Red Sox for the first time this season this weekend. Why it took until June for them to play, I do not know, but they’ll play this weekend in New York and next weekend in Boston. Six of the next eight games are against the Red Sox, who have lost eight of their last 11. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few games.

“Unhealthy”

I gotta admit, I got a kick out of the YES Network weather chyron listing the air quality as “unhealthy” during Tuesday’s game, and then Michael Kay verbally shrugging his shoulders and transitioning right into the lineups and pitching matchup. There was a “we probably shouldn’t be doing this but what the hell” vibe to the ChiSox series.

Playing Tuesday probably wasn’t the best idea, and MLB absolutely had to postpone Wednesday’s game (it was MLB’s call, not the Yankees). It was awful outside. The sky was orange and you could smell and taste the fire. I made a 20-minute round trip to the store and came back in feeling like I licked an ashtray. Expecting fans to sit through that and athletes to perform in that is ridiculous. Good call postponing that game Wednesday. The smoke was terrible.

As I write this Thursday evening, things could be better this weekend, but no one really knows. The wind will blow whichever way it chooses. Hopefully this weekend’s Red Sox series can be played safely. And if games have to be postponed, then games have to be postponed. May this all end soon so we can have comfortably breathable air again.

Another rough outing for Sevy

For the second straight start, Luis Severino’s velocity was down Thursday, and his fastball got hit hard. You should be able to get outs with 94-95 mph, but Severino generated just one whiff on 33 fastballs (18 swings), and all three homers were on heaters. He’s allowed six home runs in his last nine innings. A Judgian pace, that is.

Severino’s fastball is not good right now and he knows it. He threw only six fastballs among 30 total pitches in the fourth and fifth innings, and one of the six was a get-me-over heater in a 3-0 count. Severino isn’t locating his slider all that well either right now. These last two starts could have been much worse. He did a good job grinding through those nine innings.

"I'm not 100% sure what’s going on,” Severino told Bryan Hoch. "The bottom line is that I need to fix it. It’s unacceptable. I can’t go out there and give up three homers every time I get the ball. I need to fix it quick.”

With Severino, the worry is always injury, but the Yankees are so cautious with him that I can’t imagine they’re letting him pitch through something. Maybe he’s nursing something and just hasn’t told them about it? Either way, Severino’s fastball is lacking both velocity and life, and his location has been poor too. It’s just another problem for a team with a few too many problems right now (pitching injuries, veteran hitters underperforming, etc.).

Schmidt has another strong start

Clarke Schmidt has settled in nicely these last few starts. Granted, he’s faced a less than stellar offense in three of his last four starts (Mariners, Reds, White Sox, plus the Orioles), but pitching well against weak offenses qualifies as progress. Schmidt has a 2.49 ERA (3.65 FIP) in his last four outings, and he completed six innings Tuesday for only the second time in his 13 starts.

“Really happy about it,” Schmidt told Matthew Ritchie about Tuesday. “Being able to go deeper in games, throwing a lot of strikes. You know, my pitch count was intact. Felt like I could have stayed in that game and continued to go. I think we’re just getting better every time we’re out there, making improvements, and it’s really starting to show.”

The second homer Schmidt allowed to Seby Zavala was a bomb. He left a cutter in the middle of the plate and Zavala hit it halfway up the bleachers. Zavala’s first home run was a short porch job though – at 320 feet, it is the shortest homer at Yankee Stadium in the Statcast era (since 2015) – and those are the only two homers Schmidt has allowed in his last four starts. There’s also this:

• First nine starts vs. LHB: .369/.438/.667 (.464 wOBA) with 21.9 K% and 10.4 BB%
• Last four starts vs. LHB: .194/.286/.226 (.243 wOBA) with 20.0 K% and 8.6 BB%

Not much has changed with Schmidt’s pitch selection. He’s thrown fewer curveballs and a few more sweepers in his last four starts, though nothing crazy, and his cutter usage varies based on how many lefties are in the opposing lineup. It just seems like his execution is better. Not as many sliders left up, fewer fastballs in the middle of the plate, etc.

“He’s definitely maturing in his starting role with just an understanding of how to stay out of danger areas, what his full arsenal looks like to lefties and righties. But he’s made a lot less mistakes,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Gary Phillips recently. Kyle Higashioka added: “We’re figuring out the stuff that kind of works best for him sequencing-wise, and I’m kind of also figuring out where his misses are and what to avoid in certain situations.”

Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón (and Frankie Montas) are weeks away from returning, so the Yankees really need Schmidt to continue his recent success, and this is a golden opportunity for Schmidt too. Pitch well and you’ll get a rotation spot next year. The Yankees could use a cheap, young starter moving forward, and Schmidt is being given every opportunity to be that guy.

Tuesday’s outing brought Schmidt’s ERA under 5.00 for the first time this year and the underlying numbers are better than that (4.96 ERA and 4.32 FIP). With the caveat the Yankees could rearrange things with all the upcoming off-days, Schmidt lines up to face the Red Sox twice and the high-scoring Rangers in his next three starts. That’ll be a nice test for him. I hope he aces it.

“Early on in the season, with adding the cutter, we didn’t have really too good of a feel as to how to incorporate it,” Schmidt told Phillips. “Now I feel like we’re starting to dial in the pitch package a little bit more and learning how to pitch with the cutter, and being able to find new ways to get lefties out.”

McKinney returns

Welcome back, Billy McKinney. The Yankees summoned McKinney, not Franchy Cordero or Estevan Florial, to take Aaron Judge’s roster spot earlier this week. McKinney made his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2018 and played only two games before crashing into the wall in Toronto and hurting his shoulder. The Yankees are his sixth team since 2020.

“We considered both,” Aaron Boone told Phillips about Cordero and Florial. “And frankly, Flo has been doing a good job. Franchy’s been doing a good job. And Billy’s been really doing a good job. The moment in time now, Billy made the most sense … A little defensive flexibility. Been raking for a month and a half now. Really, really playing well. Kind of earned the opportunity.”

McKinney, who is still only 28, did indeed rake for the last month and a half. After a dreadful April with Triple-A Scranton (.206/.260/.338 and 45 wRC+), he slashed .343/.494/.687 (194 wRC+) with more walks (20.7%) than strikeouts (17.2%) from May 1st through his call up. Here are McKinney’s full season Triple-A contact quality numbers:

• Average exit velocity: 89.9 mph (Triple-A average: 87.8 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 39.8% (Triple-A average: 37.6%)
• Barrel rate: 21.4% (Triple-A average: 17.7%)

“I felt like I wasn’t really seeing the ball as well as I could early in the year,” McKinney recently told Conor Foley. “That’s the goal, especially nowadays, is seeing the ball out of the hand as fast as you can, being able to read and predict from there and just trying to get to a better spot earlier.”

McKinney went 2-for-6 with a triple and a homer in his return to the Yankees in Thursday’s two doubleheader games. Validation for everyone who thought McKinney would carry the 2023 Yankees back when he was in the farm system in 2017! He's a career .206/.277/.387 (77 wRC+) big league hitter, so who knows how long this will last, but Thursday happened. No taking it away.

I figured the Yankees would call up Cordero after Judge went on the injured list, though I understand why it was McKinney. First, he can play center field. Not great, but he can play it and play it passably (he was in center for the first game Thursday). Cordero can not. With Judge and Harrison Bader hurt, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the de facto starting center fielder and Oswaldo Cabrera is the backup. McKinney gives the Yankees one (1) actual outfielder who can play center field. What a concept.

And second, McKinney is out of minor league options and possibly a goner when Bader returns, which could be as soon as early next week. The Yankees won’t sweat losing McKinney if he gets claimed off waivers or elects free agency, but I don’t think they wanted to risk that with Florial for what might only be a few days in the big leagues. This is a temporary thing.

Once upon a time McKinney was a first round pick (taken eight spots before Judge in 2013) and a prominent enough prospect that he was traded for Jeff Samardzija, Aroldis Chapman, and J.A. Happ. Now he’s a journeyman Quad-A type who can do exactly what the Yankees need him to do these next few days: plug a roster spot until someone better gets healthy. Nice day Thursday. Hopefully McKinney keeps it up and forces the Yankees to make a tough decision down the road.

Miscellany

I saw a lot of consternation about Wandy Peralta being removed after throwing just one pitch in the first game of Thursday’s doubleheader, but I was cool with it. Peralta has been sneaky bad against righties this year (.276/.391/.431 and .366 wOBA) and Chicago’s two best righty hitters were coming up in a one-run game. Mike King just needs to do his job against Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez, and not throw a fastball here:

King has been great this year and he settled down and retired all six batters he faced after Jiménez’s go-ahead two-run homer, but he didn’t do the job he was asked to do. That’s all there is to it. It happens even with the best relievers, and it's not always the manager's fault. Peralta against Robert and Jiménez in a one-run game was not a good matchup (on paper) … Terrific outing for Randy Vásquez in the second game Thursday: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K. He retired 15 straight at one point. The White Sox were a good matchup for Vásquez because all their best hitters are righties vulnerable to spin, and he delivered. Well done, kid … Since the start of the West Coast trip, Jake Bauers is 10-for-26 (.385) with three doubles and three homers. Bauers and Willie Calhoun have really stepped up at a time when a few too many veterans are struggling. Bauers, Calhoun, and McKinney went a combined 8-for-19 (.421) with four doubles, a triple, and two homers in the doubleheader. Let those dudes split Gerrit Cole's next paycheck or something.

3. 2023 draft prospect: Ohio HS SS Colt Emerson. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Emerson, 18 next month, was an all-state wide receiver who split his time between baseball and football prior to this season. He’s hit .446/.598/1.014 this spring, his first as a full-time baseball player, and he hit .360 with more walks than strikeouts for Team USA at the 18-and-under World Cup last summer. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 26
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 43
• FanGraphs: Unranked
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 28
• MLB.com: No. 27

Last summer Emerson put up 99th percentile exit velocity at Perfect Game, though his other measurables were good more than top of the class. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

The 6-foot-1, 197-pound infielder is a pure hitter, with a smooth and compact lefthanded swing that stays in the zone a long time. Scouts rave about the repeatability and balance of his swing, as Emerson maintains a consistent posture throughout his operation, with a steady head and few unnecessary movements. His barrel manipulation is apparent, and he has a savvy ability to square up the baseball in different quadrants of the strike zone, with good timing vs. all pitch types. On top of his hand-eye coordination, Emerson’s understanding of the strike zone is also advanced … While he’s much more of a hit-over-power profile currently, he should have the strength and barrel accuracy to get to average power in the future. Emerson has turned in above-average run times, but is more of an average runner who has a chance to stick at shortstop with solid arm strength or slide over to either second base or third base.

Emerson is one of the youngest players in the draft class and analytic models typically love younger players, though I don’t think the Yankees weigh that heavily. Blake Rutherford and Anthony Seigler were older high schoolers, and even Austin Wells was older for a draft-eligible sophomore. Then again, Rutherford and Seigler didn’t work out, so maybe they’ve shifted gears.

Anyway, Jim Callis recently said “high school shortstops are the best bet for the Yankees” and mentioned Emerson by name, so there you go. There’s some ‘tweener risk here, that Emerson won’t have enough bat for third base nor enough range for the middle infield, but he is a lefty with contact skills and a chance to stay up the middle, which is firmly late first round material.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mark asks: What about LaMonte Wade Jr. as a trade target? High OBP, lefty, can play the outfield, looks like he has a few years left of team control but he’s already 29 so the asking price shouldn’t be too crazy. I think I’d rather him than Conforto or Yazstremski at this point.

The Giants have played well the last few weeks and they’re only a half-game back of a Wild Card spot, and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently said he plans to be aggressive at the deadline and get the team to the postseason. Subtracting Wade would run counter to that approach, so this is a hypothetical, but yes, Wade would be an ideal trade target.

Okay, maybe not ideal because he’s mostly played first base this year and is spotty defensively in the corner outfield, but Wade’s bat is exactly the kinda bat the Yankees need. Lefty (though he needs a platoon partner), walks a ton (17.4%), doesn’t strike out (18.6%) or swing and miss (6.6% swinging strike rate) much, has power. The Yankees are playing Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun in the outfield. They can live with Wade’s outfield defense the rest of this season.

Wade is hitting .288/.428/.478 (155 wRC+) this season and, as I wrote back in December, a knee injury hampered him last year and dragged down his numbers. Wade’s breakout year was a .253/.326/.482 (116 wRC+) line in 2021, including .268/.341/.518 (129 wRC+) against righties. Even if he’s not really 2023 good, a 125 wRC+ bat against righties would be a big help.

Trade for Wade now and you’re buying high, though as I’ve watched this offense sputter the last three years and we inch closer to the end of Gerrit Cole’s and Aaron Judge’s primes, I’ve kinda stopped caring about cost. The Yankees should just get the help they need, put their best foot forward, and try to win a World Series. I’m annoyed Frankie Montas got hurt and Joey Gallo stunk. I’m not annoyed the Yankees gave up so much prospect value to get them. It was the right idea, just poor execution. Anyway:

Why yes, I would trade the player who went unclaimed on waivers two months ago for the guy with a 155 wRC+. Thank you, Trade Values site. Twist my arm and I might even be willing to kick in Albert Abreu, if that’s what it takes. You drive a hard bargain. (Yes, I double-checked, that’s the right Wade. It’s the only Wade on the Giants in the Trade Value site database.)

Wade is flawed (poor outfield defense, needs a platoon partner, has had injuries), but 2.5 years of him should cost you something closer to what the Royals gave up for two years of Andrew Benintendi, no? Wade can really hit and he’s on the heavy side of the platoon. With any luck, the Giants will fall out of the race and sell, preferably several of their good players to the Yankees.

Lynn asks: If Volpe continues to struggle offensively throughout the month of June do you think the Yankees should send him down and give Peraza a shot at SS?

Anthony Volpe is currently hitting .188/.264/.353 (71 wRC+) and stuff like this, as a wise man once said, is not what you want:

Volpe has chased out of the zone more and made less hard contact the last few weeks, and he has been getting worse as the season has progressed, not better. His whole thing has been struggling at a new level and adjusting, and of course the adjustment period in the big leagues could be longer than it was in the minors, but Volpe is getting worse. That’s bad.

I think if Volpe is still sitting on a 71-ish wRC+ come the end of the month and not showing much progress with his chases and whatnot, the Yankees should send him to Triple-A. Countless guys – countless top prospects – have had to go to Triple-A for a reset before finding big league success. The worst thing the Yankees could do is be stubborn and force feed Volpe big league pitching if he continues to look as overmatched as he has.

The Yankees have another high-end shortstop prospect knocking on the door, which should make sending Volpe down a little easier, and they shouldn’t worry about what the media writes and what gets said on sports radio. People will undoubtedly call Volpe a bust and say the Yankees made a mistake giving him a shortstop job, but who cares? Their words don’t matter and public reaction can’t factor into the decision-making. Do what’s best for the team and player, period.

Ideally Volpe will settle in soon and we can stop talking about a potential demotion. Right now though, it’s a fair question. He’s been very bad and getting worse, and a) the Yankees are in a tight postseason race and need to put the best players on the field, and b) there’s a point where this is bad for Volpe’s development. I don’t know where that point is, but it exists. A 71-ish wRC+ at the end of June would be pretty darn close to it, I would think.

CJ asks: What would your thoughts be on an Oswald Peraza for James Outman trade?

This feels like one of those trades both teams would say no to. I would be a tad underwhelmed after the Yankees hugged Peraza so tightly the last few offseasons and trade deadlines, but it’s a fair trade that addresses a need for each team. The Yankees get 5.5 years of a young lefty hitting outfielder and the Dodgers get 5.5 years of a young shortstop. It works.

Outman, 26, had a monster April (.292/.376/.615 and 167 wRC+) and has been terrible since, hitting .161/.257/.276 (51 wRC+) with a 37.6% strikeout rate since the calendar flipped to May. He’s been especially vulnerable to high fastballs and the Dodgers are still waiting for Outman to make that adjustment. The numbers say his glove is better in left than center too, but you can put him in center if needed.

The Yankees would have to answer a few questions before making this trade. First, do you still believe in Anthony Volpe as the shortstop of the future, or has the bad start to his big league career created some doubt? You’d be trading away the only immediate in-house alternative with high-end ability. A Peraza trade is an unequivocal commitment to Volpe.

Second, what are the alternatives in the outfield? Is there an established veteran who is more of an immediate, sure thing upgrade, with or without Peraza being involved in the trade? The Yankees are already dealing with growing pains at short. Do you want to do the same in left field and with a second lineup spot (which is essentially what the Yankees have done with Oswaldo Cabrera all year? Outman’s last month or so has been pretty ugly.

And third, what’s the long-term plan on the infield? Josh Donaldson is gone after the season, DJ LeMahieu is beginning to show his age, and Gleyber Torres will be a free agent after next year. The Yankees kinda need Peraza, even though they’ve hesitated to play him. Is it easier to find a new skill position infielder or a new corner outfielder in free agency? Probably the latter.

I think Peraza for Outman is a perfectly fair and a sensible trade, and I would endorse it. Outman addresses an immediate and pressing need, and my priority is the here and now. And it’s not like he’s a rental. He helps long-term as well. I’m not sold on Peraza being more than a 7-8-9 hitter on a good team. I think Outman is much better able to contribute right now, so I’d do it.

Anthony asks: Not a Yankee question specifically but an AL East opponent related question. Can you give us your thoughts on why Alek Manoah has been so bad this season. The drop off from his last two seasons to now is staggering.

Anthony sent this question in before Manoah allowed six runs and got one out Monday night, and before he got demoted to the Florida Complex League (!) on Tuesday afternoon. Manoah has a 6.36 ERA (6.52 FIP) this season after finishing third in the Cy Young voting with a 2.24 ERA (3.35 FIP) last season. His average start* this year is 4.5 innings and 3.5 runs. Yikes.

* Annoyingly, Manoah had his best start of the year at Yankee Stadium on April 22nd: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. Take that away and his average start is 4.3 innings and 3.8 runs.

Manoah’s strikeout rate has slipped from 22.9% last year to 17.0% this year. His swinging strike rate dropped from 11.2% to 8.5%. His walk rate is up from 6.5% to 14.9%, and his home run rate is from 0.83 HR/9 to 1.71 HR.9. There’s also this stuff:

Fastball velocity: Last year Manoah’s fastball averaged 93.9 mph. It’s down to 92.8 mph this year. He’s lost 1 mph, and this isn’t a guy going from 97 mph to 96 mph. Manoah was already working with average-ish velocity. He didn’t have a huge margin of error with his fastball as it was, and now it’s even smaller. That 1 mph means more to him than it does, say, Gerrit Cole.

Slider whiffs: The whiff rate on Manoah’s slider is down from 31.8% last year to 26.6% this year, the chase rate is down from 31.1% to 26.1%, and the foul rate is up from 29.6% to 43.4%. The slider has not been a putaway pitch. Hitters aren’t chasing or whiffing as much, and when they do swing, they’re fouling it away and staying alive more than in the past.

Bad location: The walk rate is way up and, not coincidentally, Manoah’s zone rate is down from 51.4% to 46.7%. There’s a stat that (as far as I know) isn’t available to the public that tracks noncompetitive pitches – it’s not quite as simple as “this pitch was that far away from the strike zone” but that’s the basic idea – and Manoah’s rate of noncompetitive pitches is way up, I’ve been told.

Simple regression: Obviously regression alone doesn’t explain going from a 2.24 ERA to a 6.36 ERA, but Manoah did outperform his underlying numbers last season: 3.35 FIP, 3.31 xERA, 4.36 DRA. He figured to take a step back this year (how many guys repeat a 2.24 ERA?) and some of that regression is likely baked into this disaster season.

That’s the what. The why is more difficult to answer. Last season Manoah threw 196.2 innings, a 67-inning increase from his previous career high set in 2021. He may just be worn down. Also, Manoah was one of the slowest workers in baseball last season. He could be having a hard time adjusting to the pitch clock* and the quicker pace.

* I shouldn’t talk, but Manoah’s a big dude (listed at 6-foot-6 and 285 lbs.) and maybe he isn’t conditioned well enough for the pitch clock era? It’s hard enough to repeat your mechanics at that size (Bartolo Colon and CC Sabathia are the exception, not the rule). Add in the pitch clock and there’s a lot going on in a short period of time.

The Blue Jays demoted Manoah to the FCL so he could go to their Spring Training complex and work with the organization’s pitching gurus at their pitching lab. He’s so broken that the Blue Jays believe Manoah needs a full reset, not a quick stint in Triple-A. There is no timetable for Manoah to rejoin the team. He's gonna stay down until he gets himself ironed out.

(Toronto has somehow used only five starters this season. They haven't said who will take Manoah's rotation spot, but they have a ton of off-days this month, and can go without a No. 5 starter for a bit.)

There is precedent for a demotion all the way to rookie ball. Roy Halladay allowed 87 runs in 67.2 innings as a 23-year-old in 2000, the Blue Jays sent him to the low minors for a reset, and Halladay came out of that as a Hall of Famer. That’s a best case scenario outcome, obviously, but The Manoah demotion is the same idea. They want him to get back to where he was the last two seasons.

“It’s not a knee-jerk reaction,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Keegan Matheson about Manoah’s demotion. “Like I’ve been saying all along, we want to make sure we’re doing everything we can to help him get better, and we feel like that’s the proper first initial step.”

It's nothing personal, but Manoah is deeply annoying and unlikable, and he could use a good humbling. You can’t talk as much trash as he does (to Gerrit Cole, Adam Frazier, Alex Verdugo, and others) and then show up with a 6.36 ERA. I’m generally pro-trash talk, it spices things up, but if you’re gonna do it, you better back it up. Manoah backed it up last year. This year he’s a punchline.

I can’t imagine many folks outside Toronto are upset about Manoah’s downfall. The diplomatic thing to say is I’d rather the Yankees beat Manoah and the Blue Jays with him at his best, but I don’t really feel that way. Sometimes good players have a bad year or just completely fall apart and are inexplicably bad forever. That’s baseball. Sucks for the Blue Jays and Manoah.

Jonathan asks: With as much as pitchers break, why don't teams have routine scans (MRIs, CT) say every X starts?  This would catch far more injuries before they become catastrophic.

I don’t have a good answer for this. All I can tell you is I know getting an MRI sucks and players don’t like going in the tube (and teams can’t force players to get one), and that if you give any pitcher an MRI, you’re going to find some gnarly stuff in their arm, especially veterans who've thrown lots of innings. It boils down to what abnormalities are actually a problem and what is asymptomatic. I’m neither a doctor nor a pitcher, so I don’t know the answer to this question, but I assume teams would already be giving their pitchers regular MRIs if it significantly helped prevent and/or manage injuries.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)