June 5th, 2023: Judge, Donaldson, Kahnle, Stanton, Severino, Cole, Allen, Weber, Cortes, Prospects

Do you know what Tuesday is? Tuesday – June 6th – is the 10-year anniversary of the Yankees drafting Aaron Judge. Where does the time go? Here’s my draft prospect profile. Judge was at the MLB Network studios on draft day and got to go up on stage and shake Bud Selig’s hand and all that after the Yankees made him the No. 32 pick. Here’s the video. A decade later and Judge is the reigning AL MVP and the American League’s single-season home run king, and those are only his most recent accomplishments. Been a hell of a decade. Here now is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon because the Yankees have an off-day, and there’s no reason to wait to hit publish.

1. Weekend thoughts. Fun weekend at Dodger Stadium. Other than that first inning Friday, I mean. The Yankees outscored the Dodgers 14-6 after the first inning of the series, and with the series win this weekend, the Yankees are 10-9 all-time against the Dodgers in interleague play. The Yankees now have a winning record against each of the other 29 franchises. No other team can say that (because they all have a losing record against the Yankees). Pretty absurd stat, if you ask me. Now here are a few thoughts on the Dodgers series.

Judge 1, wall 0

Aaron Judge is literally running through walls for the Yankees. He took extra bases away from J.D. Martinez with a running catch Saturday – Statcast says Martinez’s rocket had a 40% catch probability – and crashed through the bullpen wall (video). And yes, it’s the wall, not the door. The bullpen door didn’t swing open. Judge broke through the dang wall like the Kool-Aid Man.

“I think the fence got most of it,” Judge told Bryan Hoch after the game. “Thankfully it was that part of the wall where it had some give. I think that saved me quite a bit. If it was a solid wall, it might be a different story.”

It was a great catch and an important catch too. If Judge doesn’t make the play, the best case scenario is the Dodgers have runners at second and third with no outs in the eighth inning of a two-run game. It’s very possible Max Muncy would have scored from first and Martinez would have gotten to third base on the play. Look at the Yankees’ win probability numbers:

• Runner at first with no outs (before catch): 76.9%
• Runner at second with one out (after catch): 81.6%
• Runners at second and third with no outs (no catch, scenario 1): 52.0%
• Run scores, runner at third with no outs (no catch, scenario 2): 43.4%

Judge banged his toe on the play and was out of the lineup Sunday, and could miss a few more days as he receives treatment. "I don't know (if he’ll go on the injured list). Not at this point. We'll see how he is today, tomorrow, and the next day,” Aaron Boone told Hoch on Sunday. Judge going on the injured list because of the stupid broken wall in Dodger Stadium would be annoying.

“I think once the adrenaline kind of wore off, it does get a little worse and a little bit of swelling. It’s part of it,” Judge told Greg Joyce. “... If I’m on (the injured list), I’m on it, but I’m trying not to be. Who knows? I’ve got no answer yet. I’m hoping today and tomorrow having a little bit of rest, we’ll be good to go hopefully on Tuesday. But we’ll take it day-to-day right now.”

Unless this banged up toe becomes a bigger problem, I chose to focus on the positive, and say holy crap what a catch. I don’t know what more Judge could do for this team. I said that a bunch last season and it’s still true. He does whatever the Yankees need when they need it. What a remarkable play and what a remarkable player. A dominant force every which way.

“He's amazing, man,” Gerrit Cole told Hoch. “There's some great players in this series, no doubt. A couple of Hall of Famers on the other side as well. But he's just on another level. There’s not a weak part of his game. Gosh, what a blessing to have him on my team.”

Donaldson, Kahnle, and Stanton return

Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton returned Friday – Donaldson missed 52 games and Stanton missed 43 games – and they both had an impact right away. Donaldson went deep in his first and fourth at-bats back and Stanton went deep in his second at-bat back. Granted, the Yankees lost the game, but those two stepped into the lineup and contributed instantly.

Stanton also ripped a double that led to the go-ahead run in the eighth inning Sunday, and he’s 2-for-7 with a double, a homer, a walk, and two strikeouts in his two games back. Donaldson is 2-for-8 with the two homers and three strikeouts. All things considered, they look okay at the plate given the long layoffs. Stanton hitting missiles right away is certainly encouraging.

“Good to see them here and part of this,” Boone told Greg Beacham. “They’ve worked hard to get to this point, so excited to get them back in there and get going.”

Tommy Kahnle also returned over the weekend. He missed the start of the season with a biceps issue and tossed a scoreless inning in his 2023 debut Friday night. It wasn’t a clean inning (he allowed a double and a walk) but Kahnle struck out one and got five whiffs on 11 swings against his changeup. The Kahnle changeup was there. The fastball velocity? Not so much.

Kahnle is 33 now (34 in August) and almost no one throws as hard at 33 as they did at 28, plus he’s had all those arm injuries in recent years and he didn’t have a proper Spring Training this year. He’s still building arm strength and that’s understandable. That said, Kahnle is aware his fastball is not what it once was, and he worked on adding a sinker during his rehab stint.

"My fastball isn’t what it was and I just needed something different. Just another look," Kahnle told Conor Foley while rehabbing with Triple-A Scranton. "... I just felt like the sinker definitely plays very well off of my changeup, and to be honest, because my four-seam, it’s kind of like a straight plane a little bit. I like it just based off two different eye sights for the hitters. Two different fastballs for me probably will help a lot more than (just the one).”

Kahnle threw a sinker early in his big league career, so it’s not a new pitch, but rather a (very) old pitch he’s bringing back. He didn’t throw any sinkers Friday and who knows, maybe he didn’t feel comfortable with the pitch during his rehab games and won’t use it in MLB games that matter. We’ll just have to wait and see whether he breaks it out at some point, and to what extent.

Adding a sinker would make sense though – if you’re losing velocity, you can make up for it by adding movement – and it would fit the Yankees’ M.O. They love sinkers and changeups. Kahnle could be like a righty Wandy Peralta if it works out. Yennier Cano dominates with sinkers and changeups. It would be a new and different pitch mix for Kahnle, but it can certainly be effective.

Donaldson and Stanton returned with dingers and the offense needs them. DJ LeMahieu needs more time off his feet and the third basemen hit .211/.293/.316 (72 wRC+) during the 52 games Donaldson missed. Even 2022 Donaldson would be an upgrade. Kahnle returned as well, and with all the pitching injuries, he can be a big help even before his velocity bounces all the way back and/or he successfully incorporates the sinker.

“Just kind of getting out there and getting with the flow of the game again,” Kahnle, the Yankees’ highest paid reliever at $5.75M in 2023, told Joyce about his season debut. “I’d assume just more reps, the more time I can work on fastball command. I didn’t like where it was at today.”

Severino’s rough start (and missing velocity)

After looking so good in his first two starts off the injured list, Luis Severino had a disastrous first inning Friday night, and the Dodgers put six runs on the board in a heartbeat. I guess we have to give Severino credit for making it through four innings rather than checking out in the first, but still, it was bad: 4 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 3 HR, and 12 batted balls over 97 mph. The three homers tie Severino’s career high, and are his new career high away from Yankee Stadium.

“At that point, I just wanted to try to get some outs. I tried to save the bullpen,” Severino told Hoch about the six-run first inning. “... This is a good team. When you make mistakes like that, they will take advantage.”

Severino got hit so hard there was speculation he was tipping his pitches – “Even if I was tipping or not, I need to get better,” he told Hoch – but it seemed to me like location more than anything. Location and a lack of life. Look at the pitch locations of the balls the Dodgers put in play:

Sure, Severino could have been tipping, and if he was he needs to fix it, but he caught way too much of the plate all night. The Dodgers are too good to leave fastballs in the middle of the zone, even when you throw 97-99 mph. And Severino was not throwing 97-99 mph Friday. His heater averaged 95.0 mph and topped out at 96.6 mph. This is, uh, bad:

“I didn’t notice (my velocity was down),” Severino told Hoch. “For me, the main thing is location. I would rather throw 99, but if I throw 95, I can get through a lineup.”

Friday’s average fastball velocity was Severino’s lowest in 2023, Spring Training included, and it is worrisome given his injury history. It was Severino’s fifth start of the regular season (two rehab games and three big league games) and my hope is this is just a dead arm phase similar to what veteran pitchers can go through toward the end of camp, and he’ll bounce back next time.

The Yankees don’t seem concerned about Severino’s velocity, though I don’t find that reassuring. This team doesn’t have the best track record with injuries, plus Severino is a special case given his injury history and who he is and his importance to the team. Missing 2 mph off the fastball is significant and sets off some alarm bells, at least for me from where I sit.

“He pitches in and out, mid-90s, upper-90s sometimes,” Boone told Hoch. “The last couple, he’s had that really good life to his heater. Just a tick off tonight.”

Cole’s cramping

Definitely could’ve done without the anxiety of Cole exiting Saturday’s game after six innings and only 80 pitches. There is zero chance – zero – a healthy Cole leaves that game. Fortunately, it was just some cramping. Between that and Judge’s ugly slide in Minnesota (and now his toe), we’ve had a few too many injury scares involving irreplaceable players this season.

“I guess just one of those days. Tough work, tough lineup, making me execute a lot of pitches,” Cole told Joyce about the cramping in his legs after the game. “We managed it well, but getting into the later innings, didn’t want to risk anything.”

Cole’s health is one of those things that is bigger than any one single game, especially this early in the season. Yeah, it was only cramping, but cramps friggin’ hurt, and there's no reason to risk anything with Cole. The worst case scenario is Cole changing his mechanics, possibly without even realizing it, and suffering a more serious injury. No complaints about pulling him.

Before that though, Cole was fantastic! Six innings of one-run ball against a very good offense, and the run was kinda dumb. He hit Jason Heyward on an 0-2 pitch, then David Peralta dunked a bloop single along the left field foul line and Heyward scored all the way from first with two outs. It was a great bounce back start after a few rocky ones for Cole.

Cramps have an annoying way of recurring and lingering, but as long as it’s just cramping, Cole will be fine in the long-term. Hopefully they go away between now and his next start, and we can all forget about Saturday. More importantly, Cole looked more like Cole against the Dodgers. He had a shaky May, then the good version of the $324M man showed up this past weekend.

Allen and Weber injured

I hope to one day love something as much as recently acquired Yankees love getting injured. The latest is Greg Allen, who very obviously tweaked something in his lower half during his fifth inning at-bat Friday night …

… yet remaining in the game another three (!) innings. The Yankees are always willing to let an injured player talk his way into staying in the game before eventually taking him out. This goes back a ways too. It’s not just a Boone thing. Remember when Jacoby Ellsbury played an inning after running into the wall and suffering a concussion? This team aggressively rests players and yet constantly allows guys to talk their way into staying in the game. It’s remarkable.

"He's pretty sore,” Boone told Chris Kirschner about Allen’s injury Saturday. “He's not moving around great. So, it was a clear IL. We'll get some tests on him Monday."

Anyway, Allen was placed on the injured list with a right hip flexor strain Saturday, and Oswaldo Cabrera was called up to replace him. Cabrera’s the better player, but I think I would’ve preferred the Yankees bring Franchy Cordero back so Oswaldo could go work on things in Triple-A. There are so many off-days coming up that it would be pretty easy to avoid using Franchy. Well, whatever.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has started the last two games in center field and it sounds like that is the plan until Harrison Bader returns, which could be as soon as Friday, the first day he’s eligible to be activated. Judge’s toe issue means Cabrera is currently the backup center fielder. Who else could they even put out there with Judge beat up? Jake Bauers? No thanks.

“We’ll see. Probably a little reluctant to do it right now,” Boone told Pete Caldera about playing Judge in center before he crashed into the wall and hurt his toe. “Doesn’t mean I won’t.”

Judge started 16 of his first 26 games in center field yet now, even before the toe injury, Boone was a “little reluctant” to play him in center. I have to think it’s related to his hip injury he suffered on the Minnesota slide. The Yankees really didn’t want to play Judge in center coming into the season and only did so when Bader got hurt. After the hip (and toe?) injury, it seems he’s an emergency option only, so Kiner-Falefa figures to play every inning in center* until Bader (or Allen) returns.

* This is Cabrera’s best chance to play center field and make good on my bold prediction that he’ll play every position other than pitcher and catcher this season. He’s already played first, second, third, short, left, and right. Center field is all that remains. (Cabrera played one inning at first base in the April 30th blowout loss to the Rangers to give Anthony Rizzo a breather.)

In addition to Allen, the Yankees also lost righty Ryan Weber over the weekend. He has a forearm strain. I thought it was unusual he didn’t pitch a third inning Friday – Weber threw 29 pitches and has thrown as many as three innings and 50 pitches with the Yankees this year – but this explains it. He spoke up about the injury following his second inning of work.

“Something’s definitely going on,” Weber told Joyce, adding he’s worried he’ll need Tommy John surgery, which far too often follows forearm strains. “Hopefully a couple weeks at best. But we obviously all know what it could be. But I’m not going to think of any of that right now.”

Webdog has allowed five runs in 14.1 innings spread across eight appearances this season and he even picked up a save against the Reds. A legit save in extra innings (video), not one of those weenie “three innings in a blowout” saves. Weber’s the kinda guy you can use for three innings one day or not use for a week, and not sweat it either way. There’s value in that.

Hopefully Weber doesn’t need Tommy John surgery. He turns 33 in a few weeks and has such a small margin of error as it is. Tommy John surgery could be a career-ender for a journeyman like him. He can’t afford to lose anything off his stuff. With any luck, Weber will avoid the worst case scenario and return in a few weeks. If not, at least he’ll get big league pay the rest of 2023.

(A few weeks ago Weber told Dan Martin he hated the automatic strike zone in Triple-A because he relies on clipping the corners and the bottom of the zone, and the system gave him nothing. I thought that was interesting. Weber allowed 22 runs in 34.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton before the Yankees called him up.)

Lefty Nick Ramirez was called up to fill Weber’s roster spot and that spot will be a revolving door until Ian Hamilton returns later this month (he threw off a mound for the first time last Tuesday, per Brendan Kuty). Deivi García, Matt Krook, Greg Weissert, and even Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are shuttle options in the interim. Four injuries on a six-game road trip (Allen, Bader, Weber, Nestor Cortes), and possibly a fifth (Judge). West Coast trips are the worst.

Miscellany

Excellent start for Domingo Germán on Sunday: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR. He had probably his best curveball of the season, and he held the Dodgers to an 82.0 mph average exit velocity on 17 balls in play. Germán made just the one mistake that J.D. Martinez hit out of the park, and his offense picked him up. Maybe starting a guy named Domingo on Sundays will become the new analytics craze … Anthony Volpe has found a way to thread the needle and be good while being bad. He’s slashing .193/.268/.353 (75 wRC+) and that’s objectively terrible, but he’s also had some late inning heroics and is on pace for 24 homers and 35 steals, which is incredible for a rookie. Even with his stolen base pace slowing down (because he’s not getting on base), Volpe has a legit chance at becoming only the 14th 20/20 rookie in history … He belongs in Triple-A but I’m very happy Cabrera had a productive weekend against the Dodgers. Oswaldo hit an insurance run solo homer Saturday and drove in the game-winning run with a weak ground ball Sunday. Whatever helps the team win and boosts his confidence, I’ll take it … Bauers hit two homers Saturday and went 7-for-17 (.412) with two doubles and three homers on the road trip. Willie Calhoun has played well lately too and he’s struck out just once in his last 35 plate appearances. When the time comes, I suspect the Yankees will keep Bauers over Calhoun because he’s an exit velocity guy (and they love exit velocity) and a more versatile and more capable defender (not that either guy is all that versatile or good defensively). Then again, it could come down to who is swinging the bat the best when the Yankees get healthy and need to clear a roster spot. For now, both Bauers and Calhoun have given the offense a nice shot in the arm the last few weeks … Somewhat quietly, Rizzo has struck out 45 times in his last 36 games and 155 plate appearances, or 29.0%. The 45 strikeouts are easily the most in a 36-game span in Rizzo’s career. His previous high was 40 strikeouts in a 36-game span spanning 2012-13, when he was still very early in his big league career. Rizzo already has 18 multi-strikeout games this year, only five fewer than last season and more than he had in 2021 (15), 2019 (16), and 2018 (11). Even with the strikeouts, Rizzo has been very productive this year, but a sudden increase in strikeouts for a soon-to-be 34-year-old is a bit of a red flag … And finally, I was pretty convinced Jimmy Cordero was hurt before he warmed up in the ninth inning Sunday. He hasn’t pitched since the series finale against the Padres last Sunday, and I don’t think he warmed up even once during the road trip before Sunday (though I could have missed it). Every reliever except Kahnle, who was just activated Friday, has pitched at least twice since Cordero last got into a game. If he was hurt, it couldn’t have been too bad, otherwise he’d be on the injured list. Hamilton was unavailable for a few days with his groin issue last month without us knowing about it, so maybe something like that with Cordero? Of course, Hamilton later hurt that groin more seriously, so I hope it's not something like that. Hopefully it was just a weird usage quirk and Cordero’s fine, and not grinding through a nagging minor injury.

2. Nestor dealing with shoulder issue. Well, I guess we now know why Nestor Cortes has been losing velocity within his starts and hitting a wall the third time through the order. He has an achy shoulder and is likely to be placed on the injured list, Aaron Boone announced Sunday. Cortes has had difficulty recovering between starts and will go for tests Monday or Tuesday.

“It’s been harder and harder in between starts. I finally said something (Saturday),” Cortes told Greg Joyce. “Usually the day after (a start) is pretty rough, normal soreness. But in this case, the second and third day kind of felt the same. It didn’t really feel like I was recovering better … I think it’s more of an inflammation, but we gotta see what it really is. Get in there and see what the images say. Hopefully these images come back better than what we expect.”

Baseball is a zero-sum game and when one guy comes off the injury list, someone else has to take his place. Or at least that’s what it feels like with the 2023 Yankees. Luis Severino returned then bam, Cortes got hurt. Giancarlo Stanton was nearing a return, so of course Harrison Bader got hurt. It’s been one injury after another all season. It’s exhausting.

“We don’t think it’s anything too major, but the last couple of times recovering in between, he’s had that achiness,” Boone told Bryan Hoch. “... That’s our sense now (that he doesn’t need surgery), but again, we haven’t had tests. That’s the trainers’ sense, that this is probably not (a surgery situation). But then again, we’re speculating there.”

The Yankees have not yet announced who will replace Cortes in the rotation – “I have an idea, but we’ll make that call here over the next couple of days,” Boone told Hoch – though they know exactly who will replace Cortes. They’re just not telling us yet. Here is the rotation the Yankees announced for the White Sox series:

• Tuesday: Clarke Schmidt (normal rest)
• Wednesday: TBA
• Thursday: Luis Severino (extra day of rest)

Both Randy Vásquez (would be on normal rest) and Jhony Brito (would have an extra day) line up to pitch Wednesday, so the Yankees are okay in that regard. The fact the Yankees still haven’t put Nestor on the injured list suggests it’ll be Vásquez. Vásquez is still in his 15-day waiting period and will need an injured list stint to come back up Wednesday. Brito doesn’t.

And you know what? That’s probably the right move, and not just because Vásquez impressed in his lone spot start while Brito labored through his extended look. The White Sox are the hackiest bunch of hackers that ever hacked. Their team 33.8% chase rate is not just the highest in baseball this season. It’s the highest since the 114-loss Tigers in 2019 (34.3%). Furthermore:

• White Sox vs. breaking balls: .204 AVG and 35.1% whiffs
• White Sox vs. changeups: .231 AVG and 34.5% whiffs

The White Sox have more trouble with breaking balls than changeups, they swing at everything, and their four best hitters by wRC+ (Jake Burger, Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn) are right-handed. Seems like you should throw the righty with a 3,000 rpm breaking ball at them rather than the changeup guy, no? On paper, Vásquez over Brito is the way to go, which of course means the Yankees will go with Brito, who will dominate because the Yankees are usually right and I’m usually wrong.

(The roster moves will probably be something like Cortes to the injured list and Vásquez up on Wednesday, then Vásquez sent down Thursday with a fresh reliever coming up. That fresh reliever could even be Brito since Ryan Weber isn’t around to be the long man anymore.)

The good news is the Yankees have a ton of off-days in June and, after Wednesday, they won’t need their No. 5 starter again until Saturday, June 24th. The bad news is I’m guessing the Yankees wanted to use those off-days to give their starters a little breather in the middle of the season, and can’t do that if they keep avoiding the No. 5 while Cortes is out. That stinks.

Carlos Rodón will face hitters Wednesday and Frankie Montas (remember him?) started a throwing program last week, according to Joyce. Those two are on the mend but also weeks away from returning. Now Cortes has a shoulder issue and Gerrit Cole has cramping. Also, Schmidt has thrown 55.2 innings and is on pace to shatter his career high workload (111.1 as a college junior in 2016), plus Severino and Domingo Germán have arm injury histories.

It feels like the universe is telling the Yankees to go get a starter at the trade deadline. You can squint your eyes and cross your fingers and say this will be a fierce rotation when everyone gets healthy, but everyone getting healthy probably won’t happen. It rarely does. Someone – some pitcher – is always getting hurt. It is the nature of the beast. Pitchers break. It’s what they do.

With any luck, Nestor’s shoulder problem will prove to be minor, and he’ll come back later this month looking like 2022 Cortes, the guy who legitimately pitched like an ace, rather than the 2023 version who couldn’t turn over a lineup three times. Shoulders are scary though, and yeah, the Yankees should start preparing to pursue a quality starter at the deadline. It feels necessary.

“I’m not really concerned,” Cortes told Joyce. “It’s just a lot of soreness. I haven’t been able to bounce back like I want to between starts. Hopefully everything comes back clean in the MRI and we can just get ahead of it and get better.”

3. Prospect thoughts. It’s June and I haven’t updated the minor league standings once this season, so let’s do that now:

• Triple-A Scranton: 27-30 (13.0 GB and in fifth place)
• Double-A Somerset: 29-21 (2.5 GB and in second place)
• High-A Hudson Valley: 29-22 (1.5 games up and in first place)
• Low-A Tampa: 21-30 (15.5 GB and in sixth place)

Every full season league now uses the split season format in which the first half division winner gets one postseason berth, and the second half division winner gets the other postseason berth. The first half ends in three weeks, so Somerset has time to catch up and Hudson Valley needs to hold on. Scranton and Tampa are already looking ahead to the second half. Now here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Hampton emerging as latest mid-round find

RHP Chase Hampton, last year’s sixth round pick, is making the same strides in his first year of pro ball as RHP Will Warren (2021 eighth round), LHP Ken Waldichuk (2019 fifth round), and RHP Hayden Wesneski (2019 sixth round). He got into better shape over the winter, tightened up his mechanics, added velocity, and sharpened his slider. Hampton is officially a capital D-Dude.

“Pure electricity. He knows how to spin the ball, ultra-competitor,” High-A Hudson Valley pitching coach Preston Claiborne (yes, that Preston Claiborne) told Max Goodman about Hampton recently. “Props to him for putting on weight this offseason, taking his solid program from the strength and conditioning department and running with it. Big time accountability because he wants to be the guy. He’s definitely got that potential. He showed up to camp this spring and was throwing 3-4 four miles per hour harder, just absolutely pounding the strike zone.”

Saturday night Hampton struck out 10 in seven innings of two-run ball (video), and he’s struck out at least nine batters in five of his eight starts this season. For the season, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA (3.16 FIP) with an absurd 40.4% strikeout rate and 19.0% swinging strike rate. Here are the minor league strikeout and swinging strike rate leaderboards (min. 40 innings):

Strikeout rate
1. Emmet Sheehan, Dodgers: 43.2% (age 23 in Double-A)
2. Andrew Abbott, Reds: 42.7% (age 24 in Double-A and Triple-A)
3. Chase Hampton, Yankees: 40.4% (age 21 in High-A)
4. Frank Mozzicato, Royals: 40.0% (age 20 in Low-A)
5. Connor Phillips, Reds: 38.2% (age 22 in Double-A)

Swinging strike rate
1. Emmet Sheehan, Dodgers: 19.8% (age 23 in Double-A)
2. Jean Pinto, Orioles: 19.3% (age 22 in High-A)
3. Chase Hampton, Yankees: 18.8% (age 21 in High-A)
4. Angel Bastardo, Red Sox: 18.6% (age 21 in High-A)
5. Frank Mozzicato, Royals: 18.1% (age 20 in Low-A)

Hampton is simply too good for High-A. He could pull a Warren and reach Double-A just a few weeks into his first full pro season despite being a lower profile draft pick. (Warren made only eight High-A starts last year before moving up. Hampton has made eight starts this season.)

We don’t have Statcast for the High-A South Atlantic League, though Hampton topped out at 95.9 mph during his lone Grapefruit League appearance, a tick better than the 93-95 mph he showed at Texas Tech last year. And that was only Spring Training. I’ve heard Hampton’s sitting 95-97 mph pretty consistently now that the season is underway, with better secondaries.

Texas Tech has a reputation for recruiting well and developing poorly, particularly on the mound. A lot of their pitchers take big steps forward soon after being drafted. Cubs RHP Caleb Kilian, Rays RHP Mason Montgomery, and Astros LHP Parker Mushinski are in that group, and it appears Hampton is now as well. The Yankees have had success turning these unheralded mid-round arms into legit pitching prospects, and Hampton is the latest.

Jones struggling with strikeouts

OF Spencer Jones, last year’s first rounder and my No. 4 prospect, began the season like gangbusters, racking up an extra-base hit or three seemingly every night with High-A Hudson Valley. “If you’re not going to count the guys in the majors (i.e. Anthony Volpe and at the time Oswald Peraza), he’s their best prospect and it’s not even close,” a scout told Zach Buchanan (subs. req’d) early last month.

The pace has slowed lately, and while Jones still owns a solid .276/.323/.514 (120 wRC+) batting line, the strikeouts are really starting to pile up. Jones has a 34.3% strikeout rate and a 14.7% swinging strike rate this season (and only a 6.5% walk rate), and in his last 16 games and 75 plate appearances, he’s struck out 29 times, or 38.7%. Here’s the minor league strikeout rate leaderboard (min. 200 plate appearances):

1. Jerar Encarnacion, Marlins: 37.9% (age 25 in Triple-A)
2. Omar De Los Santos, Mets: 37.8% (age 23 in High-A)
3. Nick Biddison, Dodgers: 36.3% (age 22 in Low-A)
4. Austin Hendrick, Reds: 35.1% (age 22 in High-A)
5. Spencer Jones, Yankees: 34.3% (age 22 in High-A)

“As the season goes on, pitchers are going to start attacking him a little differently,” Renegades hitting coach Kevin Martir told Goodman recently. “We’re helping him with game planning, being able to make adjustments per game or per at-bat. In college, you still have good arms there, but at some point they’re gonna miss more than they do here.”

With the caveat that a strikeout rate in the 35% range is always a red flag, particularly in High-A, Jones is not the typical first round college bat. He’s enormous (now officially listed at 6-foot-6, so apparently he shrunk an inch since Spring Training) and has a big strike zone, and he only had one full college season under his belt because of injuries and the pandemic. This isn’t some polished college hitter. Jones is still on the raw side for a player his age.

Jones made some adjustments last spring at Vanderbilt and a few more after signing, and he did make a good deal of contact in his short stint with Low-A Tampa last summer. That hasn’t been the case this year, though we can’t check his contact rates because we don’t have Statcast for the High-A South Atlanta League. I mean, his contact rates are probably bad given his strikeout rate, right? But are they merely bad, or are they in fatal flaw territory? There’s a difference.

The slash line is good more than excellent and the strikeout rate is worrisome. I’d be lying to you if I said that a 34.3% strikeout rate is fine, especially since Jones has struck out more as the season has progressed. Maybe the assignment to High-A was a bit aggressive? I’d be more worried if Jones were completely overmatched and hitting something like .210/.270/.350. As things stand, these last two months confirm that yeah, Jones has stuff to work on.

“Spencer is a coach’s dream,” Hudson Valley manager Sergio Santos (yes, the former reliever) told Goodman. “His athleticism wows you. But so does his work ethic, his willingness and curiousness to get better. It’s rare when you find a combo of somebody so talented yet so hardworking. When you have that recipe, it’s a superstar in the making.”

Rookie ball seasons get underway

It’s June and the rookie ball season has arrived. The Florida Complex League and Dominican Summer League both began play Monday. The Yankees are one of 19 MLB organizations fielding two DSL teams this season. A decade ago it was only 3-4. As always, the best place to follow box scores is MLB.com’s one-stop shop affiliates page.

For as far as minor league stats and information have come in the last decade, rookie ball roster pages are still notoriously unreliable. Fortunately, I’m not planning a full rookie ball preview. I just want to highlight a few names, and it really doesn’t matter if they’re in the FCL or DSL. Here are a few guys worth knowing.

Top 30 Prospects: SS Roderick Arias (FCL), OF Brandon Mayea (DSL), RHP Luis Serna (FCL). Serna missed the start of the season with a shoulder issue and is apparently healthy now (he’s listed on the active roster rather than the injured list). Mayea, this year’s big international amateur signing, doubled in his first pro at-bat Monday. He was then promptly removed for a pinch-runner, so he might’ve gotten hurt on that double. Sigh. Arias tripled Monday. He did not hurt himself and stayed in the game.

Not Top 30 Prospects: IF Keiner Delgado (FCL), RHP Omar Gonzalez (DSL), C Engelth Urena (FCL). Urena is on the injured list. He missed time with a broken hand last year but did come back to play at the end of the season. This must be a new injury. A shoulder injury ended Gonzalez’s season early last year, though he’s on the active roster, not the injured list.

Prospects to Know: RHP Angel Benitez (DSL). Benitez had Tommy John surgery sometime last September or October and will miss the season, so there won’t actually be anything to keep track of with him this season. Lame.

RHP Jerson Alejandro (DSL): The Yankees signed Alejandro along with Mayea in January and he’s got a chance to be a significant prospect. Here’s what Ben Badler (subs. req’d) wrote about Alejandro in his international free agency review a few weeks ago:

Alejandro signed for $409,000 and developed into one of the elite pitching prospects in the class. He’s 6-foot-6, 255 pounds at 17 with the power stuff to match his frame coming from a sound delivery with efficient arm action. He pitches in the low-to-mid 90s, reaching 98 mph on a high-spin fastball that could eventually reach triple digits. Alejandro complements his fastball with a changeup that flashes plus with upside for more with its lively tailing action and tumble. He throws a curveball as well that has average potential. It’s a high-upside starter look between his stuff, mechanics and ability to throw all of his pitches for strikes.

Here’s some video. The kid certainly looks the part on the mound. With the caveat that they are all as far away from the big leagues as you can get while still being a pro baseball player, the Yankees have some awfully exciting lower minors arms in Alejandro, Benitez, Gonzalez, Serna, and the two kids about I’m about to cover …

LHP Henry Lalane and RHP Carlos Legrange (both FCL): These two are massive (they are both listed at 6-foot-7) and they both throw very hard and overwhelmed hitters in the DSL last year. Lalane is the more refined prospect of the two but Legrange seems to have greater upside. Lagrange turned 20 last month. Lalane just turned 19. (I wrote a bit more about them in my Prospects to Know feature.)

RHP Jordarlin Mendoza (FCL): The 19-year-old used a high spin mid-90s fastball and a good slider to lead the DSL in strikeouts last season. He signed during the 2021 international signing period (bonus unknown) and finally escaped the DSL this year.

OF Richard Meran (DSL): Meran is another member of the 2023 international signing class ($100,000 bonus) and he’s gotten a few OF Everson Pereira comps for his athleticism and explosive bat speed from the right side.

OF Gabriel Lara and IF Gabriel Terrero (both DSL): The Gabriels are two less-heralded members of this year’s international signing class. Lara ($30,000 bonus) and Terrero ($100,000 bonus) are both slash-and-dash speedsters, and Terrero has the added advantage of being a switch-hitter (Lara is a lefty bat).

Also notable: RHP Matt Sauer, who missed the start of the season with a forearm strain, is rehabbing with the FCL Yankees and started Monday’s season opener. He didn’t make it out of the first inning (0.2 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR), but at least he’s healthy and pitching in games again. A few more FCL appearances and Sauer will head back up to Double-A Somerset.

Minor roster moves

The Yankees made a pair of roster moves involving journeyman veterans over the weekend that are worth a quick note. First, catcher José Godoy was traded to the Orioles and no return was listed. It was likely a small sum of money, possibly even $1. Those $1 trades happen more often than you realize, and they almost always involve a Godoy type, a spare part Triple-A player.

Anyway, the Yankees signed Godoy when almost every catcher in big league camp other than Kyle Higashioka got hurt (and Higashioka was away at the World Baseball Classic), and now that guys are getting healthy, they don’t need him. This is the current catching depth chart:

• MLB: Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino
• Triple-A: Rodolfo Durán, Carlos Narvaez, Ben Rortvedt
• Double-A: Mickey Gasper, Anthony Seigler, Austin Wells
• High-A: Juan Crisp, Rafael Flores, Antonio Gomez, and Josh Breaux on rehab
• Low-A: Omar Martinez, Agustin Ramirez, Jesus Rodriguez

(Wells and Gomez are far and away the best prospects in that group. Breaux and Seigler were notable once upon a time, Ramirez is a sleeper as an exit velocity dude, Narvaez is a glove-first guy who’s made some progress with the bat and has a few fans, and that’s about it.)

Breaux has played seven rehab games with Hudson Valley (three at catcher and four at DH) and he’ll get up to Scranton before long, possibly even for the start of the new series Tuesday. Wells figures to get promoted fairly soon as well. Within the next couple weeks, I would think. Durán and/or Narvaez may find themselves sent down to Somerset as a result.

Godoy, who had only 41 plate appearances this year, getting traded was the first notable roster move. The second: Kole Calhoun opted out of his minor league contract last Thursday, per Jon Morosi. The Yankees could have added him to the 40-man roster and called him up to prevent that, but they didn’t, so Calhoun became a free agent. The Yankees signed the longtime Angel in late April.

Now 35, Calhoun hit .281/.390/.528 (131 wRC+) in 24 games with Scranton, though he started 11-for-22 (.500) and finished 16-for-62 (.210). There’s been chatter about a swing change, but eh. “Swing change” is venturing into “best shape of his life” territory. Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun have performed well enough of late that swapping out one for (Kole) Calhoun probably wasn’t a serious consideration.

The Yankees signed (Kole) Calhoun partly because Harrison Bader and Giancarlo Stanton were hurt, and they needed bodies in Scranton after Bauers and (Willie) Calhoun got called up. The Triple-A outfield is Franchy Cordero, Elijah Dunham, Estevan Florial, Michael Hermosillo, and Billy McKinney right now. Calhoun was a long shot to get called up, so opting out isn’t a surprise. So long, Kole with a K.

Miscellany

Over the last calendar month OF Jasson Domínguez has hit .257/.378/.448 (127 wRC+), which is way better than where he was earlier in the year. His season batting line sits at .211/.374/.398 (116 wRC+) with 24.3% strikeouts, 11.3% swinging strikes, and 20.4% walks. The walk rate is nice to look at, though league average strikeout and swinging strike rates from the 20-year-old in Double-A is the headliner here. The hits are beginning to fall in now too … Two lefties who intrigue me: LHP Edgar Barclay and LHP D.J. Snelten. Barclay was a Not Top 30 Prospect last year and he missed the start of this season with an elbow issue, but he returned over the weekend and struck out five in 2.1 scoreless innings with Double-A Somerset (video). There’s enough stuff and pitching know-how there to carve out an MLB role. Snelten, meanwhile, is a 31-year-old journeyman who was out of baseball from 2020-22. His numbers with Triple-A Scranton aren’t pretty (24.1 IP, 15 H, 15 R, 24 BB, 30 K), but he’s also touched 99 mph with his fastball (98.9 mph, to be exact), and that feels notable (video). Perhaps Snelten will settle in as he gets more innings under his best after the long layoff? That would be cool. And if nothing comes of it, then nothing comes of it, but there will always be a spot in my Triple-A bullpen for a lefty lottery ticket with upper-90s gas … And finally, RHP Drew Thorpe, last year’s second round pick and my No. 8 prospect, had his best start of the season Sunday: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K (video). Thorpe has been good overall (3.31 ERA and 3.37 FIP with 28.5% strikeouts and 9.7% walks) though not quite as dominant as I expected seeing how he’s a polished college guy in High-A. There could be some movement soon in which Thorpe and Hampton move up to Double-A Somerset and RHP Clayton Beeter joins Warren with Triple-A Scranton.

4. 2023 draft prospect: Florida HS SS George Lombard Jr. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Lombard’s father, George Sr., is a former big leaguer and a longtime coach. He is currently A.J. Hinch’s bench coach with the Tigers and had previous stops with the Dodgers (first base coach from 2016-20), Braves (minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator in 2015), and Red Sox (several roles from 2010-14). So yeah, George Jr. grew up around the game.

George Sr. was the No. 61 pick in the 1994 draft (he was taken 11 spots ahead of Aaron Boone) and George Jr. should easily beat his father’s draft slot. Lombard turned 18 last Friday and is one of the youngest players in the draft class. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 31
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 33
• FanGraphs: No. 28
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 33
• MLB.com: No. 38

MLB.com says Lombard ”already looks the part at 6-foot-3 (and 190 lbs.) with a pro body that stands out among high school players.” He hit .478/.583/.856 against good competition this spring and, at Perfect Game last summer, he finished in the 98th percentile in the 60-yard dash and the 99th percentile in exit velocity. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Unsurprisingly given his background, Lombard Jr. is a savvy, fundamentally sound player with strong all-around instincts for the game … Lombard Jr. slows the game down on both sides of the ball and at the plate, has a controlled and balanced but powerful swing that starts with a slow leg kick. There’s a bit of swing and miss in his game, but Lombard has done a nice job handling velocity and spin and doesn’t have any obvious holes at the plate. Previously a fringy runner, Lombard showed above-average and plus run times in 2022, and is likely a solid 55-grade runner now with a fringy first step but good speed underway. He has solid actions in the middle infield and should have a chance to stick at shortstop with average arm strength, but as he fills out a 6-foot-2, 195-pound frame perhaps he fits better at third base.

FanGraphs says Lombard has a “well-rounded collection of present tools and skills, as well as long-term physical projection that might lead some of those tools to be plus.” Law (subs. req’d) calls him “one of the more intriguing upside plays among high school hitters this year.” I heard there’s some swing sequence stuff (the way his hips and torso and all that sync up) teams think they can clean up with Lombard to unlock more hard-hit ability.

Lombard is an excellent student and is committed to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt typically only recruits the best of the best – the Commodores might as well be the 31st MLB team given the quality of their scouting and player development – and those commitments can be tough to break, though not impossible. The Yankees bought Dellin Betances and Anthony Volpe away from Vanderbilt, most notably. That said, the Yankees only have a $5,564,370 bonus pool. It ain’t much.

For what it’s worth, Law (subs. req’d) said the Yankees have interest in Lombard in his latest mock draft, and more recently Jim Callis added “high school shortstops are the best bet for the Yankees” based on what he’s hearing. The Yankees did not draft a single high schooler last year and they’ve used their last three first round picks on college players, so a high school shortstop would buck their recent trend.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)