May 26th, 2023: Cole, Cortes, Kiner-Falefa, Vásquez, Donaldson, Stanton, Kahnle, Rodón, Mailbag

I’m sure many of you have noticed a little less John Sterling in your lives lately. He skipped a few games two weeks ago because his triplets graduated college, and more recently he’s been under the weather. Andrew Marchand says Sterling, now 84, will skip this weekend’s Padres series and the West Coast trip next week, then return to the booth when the Yankees come home June 6th. Justin Shackil, who seems to be Sterling’s heir apparent, will handle radio play-by-play duties in the meantime. Like the rest of us, Sterling is losing his fastball with age, but the man is an institution. He is the soundtrack to so many iconic Yankees moments. I don’t listen to many games on radio these days, but I hope Sterling feels better and I look forward to him returning to the booth. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees were due for a bullpen meltdown and that meltdown came Wednesday, when they entered the seventh inning with a four-run lead and exited with a four-run deficit. The eight-run inning ties the Orioles’ biggest ever against the Yankees, if you can believe that (these two franchises have been around forever, is eight really the best the O’s have done?). They also had an eight-run inning against the Yankees on June 5th, 1989 (box score). Now here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

The O’s series

The Orioles series this week reminded me of those Yankees-Rays series circa 2010-11 in which one team was young, athletic, quick, energetic, and fundamentally sound, and the other was the Yankees. The O’s are what I thought the Blue Jays would be the last few years. I’m not sure Baltimore has enough pitching to make real noise this year, but they are A Problem.

The Yankees were a miracle comeback away from getting swept this week and, to be fair, they were a miracle comeback away from winning two of three. But the O’s were the better team this series – better players, better execution, better all the way around – and when the Yankees run out a lineup like Thursday’s …

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. CF Harrison Bader
5. DH Willie Calhoun
6. SS Anthony Volpe
7. 3B Oswaldo Cabrera
8. C Ben Rortvedt
9. LF Greg Allen

… it’s a harsh reminder the Yankees are a notch or two below championship-caliber (no matter what Hal Steinbrenner says). That is not an “everything will be fine when Giancarlo Stanton returns” lineup. That's a “five of those guys probably don’t belong in the big leagues” lineup. Add in the pitching injuries and it’s a minor miracle the Yankees are 30-22. This franchise is allergic to being bad. Frustrating? Yes. Deficient roster? For sure. But bad? Basically never.

The Yankees took care of business in Toronto, but also went 3-4 in the two recent series with the Rays, then dropped two of three to the Orioles at home. Those are the teams the Yankees are chasing and the new schedule gives them fewer head-to-head games to make up ground. This is a bad outcome. Not a season killer or anything. Not even close. The Yankees just have to be better though. There are too many no-shows and too many winnable games slipping away.

Cole’s 2,000th strikeout (and his two pitches)

Gerrit Cole entered Tuesday’s start needing two strikeouts to join the 2,000-strikeout club and he finished the night with exactly two strikeouts, tied for his fewest in a game as a Yankee. Old pal Jorge Mateo was Cole’s 2,000th strikeout victim (video). Only Chris Sale (1,626 innings) and Pedro Martinez (1,711.1 innings) reached 2,000 strikeouts quicker than Cole (1,714.1 innings).

“It’s a pretty special accomplishment,” Cole told Bryan Hoch. “I was pretty depressed about the whole thing (giving up five runs in five-plus innings) for the most part, until Judgie came through and picked us up. I’m probably leaving the game tonight more thrilled about how we played as a team as opposed to accomplishing that.”

Cole struggled with his command Tuesday, both in and out of the zone. He got two quick outs in the first inning, then went from 0-2 to a walk against Anthony Santander, 1-2 to a walk against Ryan Mountcastle (he of the 4.5% walk rate), and then he left a slider up that Adam Frazier hit for a two-run double. The two homers he allowed missed the target and were mistakes in the zone:

“The stuff was pretty good, but the command was not good enough,” Cole told Hoch about Tuesday’s start. “I thought we were non-competitively out of the zone too many times, losing count leverage. Overall, they were super disciplined in their approach and put good swings on pitches that they should have.”

After beginning the season with seven straight homerless outings, Cole has allowed six dingers in his last four starts. That was bound to happen, right? His home run problem was never going to go away completely, not when his home ballpark is Yankee Stadium, and his 0.80 HR/9 (9.5% HR/FB) is still very good. There are probably more homers coming, sorry to say.

Earlier this week I mentioned Cole is becoming a two-pitch pitcher. He went into Tuesday’s start having thrown roughly 80% fastballs and sliders in his three previous starts, and the trend continued against the Orioles. It was 81% fastballs and sliders Tuesday:

The YES Network showed Cole fidgeting with his right thumb while warming up Tuesday and maybe he’s dealing with something (blister? broken fingernail?) that hampers his control and his ability to throw his curveball and changeup? Cole gave Gary Phillips a succinct “no” when asked whether the thumb is an issue, but of course he’s gonna say that. If the thumb is an issue, he’d never tell us. I guess we have to keep an eye out for any thumb-related hijinks.

Cole has come back to Earth the last few times out and it’s really just two bad starts – he gave up six runs in five innings on May 7th and five runs in five innings on May 23rd, and two runs total in the two starts in between – but the Yankees need Cole to be excellent and to pitch deep into games. It is a team built around run prevention and he’s the ultimate run preventer and bullpen saver. Congrats on 2,000 strikeouts, Gerrit. Now please pitch like you did in April again.

Not so Nasty Nestor

As much as I complain about Aaron Boone going batter-to-batter (it feels like he’s doing it more than ever this year), I was totally fine with sending Nestor Cortes out for the seventh inning Wednesday. Nestor cruised through the first six innings and his pitch count was at 77, and the lead was four runs, not one or two. It backfired and it was a situation where the players* just didn’t perform. It’s not always Boone’s fault. (Foul pole homers always feel extra deflating, no?)

“The ball Frazier hit, I thought it was well-located for who I was facing and what my heater does,” Cortes told Hoch. “He was getting beat all day with the heater, so I feel like he probably wanted to cheat a little bit on it. It was more middle than I probably wanted it, but still in a good spot. If that ball is two inches away, he probably pops it up.”

* That means Cortes and relievers Jimmy Cordero and Albert Abreu, and also Anthony Volpe for not knocking down Austin Hays’ liner and Kyle Higashioka for his passed ball.

I don’t know whether it’s fatigue or just hitters getting another look at him, but Nestor’s numbers the third time through the lineup this season are ghastly. Legitimately the worst in baseball among full-time starters. Worst AVG, worst OBP, worst SLG, worst wOBA. Here is Cortes as he goes through the lineup:

2022 first and second time thru: .188/.239/.319 (.247 wOBA)
2023 first and second time thru: .230/.263/.307 (.255 wOBA)

2022 third+ time thru: .194/.248/.287 (.239 wOBA)
2023 third+ time thru: .452/.500/1.048 (.620 wOBA)

In hindsight, I should have seen the third+ time through the order regression coming. Performing better the third+ time through than the first and second time through like Cortes last season is not normal. Still, I would not have expected him to go from that good to this bad. Once the lineup turns over that third time this year, Nestor’s throwing batting practice.

Maybe I missed it, but I haven’t seen Cortes comment on fatigue. I think that’s fan and media speculation after the hamstring injury cut into his Spring Training and he had a start pushed back by strep throat a few weeks ago. It’s certainly possible Nestor is running out of gas once he gets to 75-ish pitches. The in-game velocity decline supports that theory …

… though that graph shows a drop from 91.9 mph the first time through the lineup to 91.1 mph the third time through the lineup. It’s not 2-3 mph of velocity loss within a start. Last year Nestor’s velocity mostly held steady each time through the lineup, so yeah, I suppose fatigue could be a factor. If it is, I haven’t seen him or the Yankees say anything about it.

I’m inclined to think it’s just hitters getting more looks at him, both within that night’s game and dating back to last season, and he’s executing poorly. And again, poor execution can be related to fatigue. Sometimes guys just hang pitches and they clank off the foul pole though. Cortes has faced 48 batters the third time through the lineup and seven have taken him deep. Yeesh.

Given the numbers and given the fact the third time through trouble happens just about every start, the Yankees must have a shorter leash with Cortes, particularly in close games. If that means pulling him at 77 pitches after six innings, then do it. They did it with Jordan Montgomery all those years, right? The goal is to win games, not max out the starter’s pitch count.

Hopefully Cortes is able to build up his stamina or make the adjustment or do whatever he needs to do to solve this third time through problem, and the Yankees can go back to letting him pitch deep into games. As things stand, they should have a shorter leash with him. This third time though the lineup problem is significant enough to warrant a change in how Nestor is used.

“This is a tough loss and everything, but one of the things (to take away) from it is another strong outing against a good team for Nestor,” Boone told Hoch. “I know it goes bad there a little bit at the end, but take a step back and look at how he threw the ball, especially coming off his last one. There’s encouraging things there.”

IKF the power hitter

Three home runs and a booming triple (video) for Isiah Kiner-Falefa in his last six games and 15 plate appearances. This is the same guy who hit four homers in 531 plate appearances all last season, you may remember. Wednesday’s triple was 107.3 mph off the bat, the seventh highest exit velocity of Kiner-Falefa’s career, and it would have been a homer in 12 parks. Huh.

“I brought my leg kick back from previous years, when I was with Texas and coming through the minor leagues,” Kiner-Falefa said Wednesday (video). “I think I’m understanding my role a little more and when I’ll be playing, and the type of pitchers I might be facing. Just a little more studying and preparation on the guys I’m gonna be facing and be ready to go when I’m in there.”

Kiner-Falefa is a tinkerer, he’s changed his stance and his leg kick plenty of times throughout his career, including early last season. Here, for the sake of posterity, is his leg kick this year vs. last year. His leg kick seems a little bigger now, though I don’t want to make too much of it because again, Kiner-Falefa is a tinkerer, and he could have a new leg kick next week.

Bench players go on hot streaks like everyone else (remember when Marwin Gonzalez randomly went 8-for-21 with two doubles and three homers last June?) and that might be all this power binge is, a hot streak. If Kiner-Falefa keeps up another few weeks, we can circle back and figure out what’s going on, because this isn’t the same guy we’ve watched the last 13 months.

The recent production is helpful and appreciated, and I want to give Kiner-Falefa props for being a pro throughout everything this year. Losing the shortstop job, learning the outfield, playing sparingly, etc. That had to be difficult to swallow, but he hasn’t complained and is finding ways to contribute. Being a bench guy is hard when you’re used to playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa has been making the most of his opportunities lately.

“I don’t think my numbers last year were good enough to hold the (shortstop) spot, so it is what it is. I wasn’t good enough last year,” Kiner-Falefa said (video). “I was given another opportunity to be here, so I’m just trying to do everything I can to show what I can do and prove why I’m here.”

Vásquez to debut Friday

Randy Vásquez, my No. 10 prospect, will be called up to make his MLB debut Friday. Boone said it’s not certain Vásquez will start, the Yankees may pair him with an opener, but he will pitch one way or another. Vásquez will be the 21st different pitcher the Yankees use in 2023. Somehow that is only the 16th most in baseball. (The Athletics have already used 28!)

“Very surprised,” Vasquez told Greg Joyce about the call up. “You’re always waiting for that call. It’s a call I’ve been waiting my whole life for, ever since I was a kid.”

The Yankees are operating with a 12-man pitching staff during Domingo Germán’s suspension and Jhony Brito was sent down after his start last Saturday, so the Yankees have been carrying four starters and eight relievers the last few days. Vásquez will start in Brito’s spot Friday since Brito can not yet be recalled. The 15-day rule and all. Here’s the upcoming rotation:

• Friday vs. Padres: Randy Vásquez (maybe with an opener)
• Saturday vs. Padres: Luis Severino (one extra day of rest)
• Sunday vs. Padres: Gerrit Cole (normal rest)
• Monday at Mariners: Domingo Germán (eligible to return Sunday)
• Tuesday at Mariners: Nestor Cortes (one extra day of rest)
• Wednesday at Mariners: Clarke Schmidt (one extra day of rest)
• Thursday: off-day

The Yankees opted to start Cole on normal rest Sunday rather than plug Germán into the rotation the first day he’s eligible to return. The June schedule is loaded with off-days, so the Yankees will have plenty of opportunities to give Cole a little breather next month. They’re gonna run him out there as much as possible for now.

As for Vásquez, he owns a 4.85 ERA (4.68 FIP) in 42.2 Triple-A starts this season, but he’s been much better lately. He’s a sinker/sweeper guy and the range of potential outcomes here is huge. Vásquez could walk five batters in 1.1 innings or strike out nine in six shutout innings, and neither would surprise me. Seems like Vásquez either dominates, or walks the park and labors.

"He did some good things in Spring Training. Good arm, good stuff," Boone told Joon Lee. "He's been pitching pretty well. He's had some games where he walked in guys, but is getting swing and miss too. He's the next guy up right now with an opportunity."

Thursday’s bullpen usage suggests Nick Ramirez will be sent down to clear a spot for Vásquez, and Ryan Weber will be available as a long man behind Vasquez. The sequence of roster moves figures to look like this (Vásquez is on the 40-man roster already, so no move is required there):

• Friday: Ramirez sent down, Vásquez called up
• Saturday: Vásquez sent down, fresh reliever called up
• Sunday: Germán activated (no need to send anyone down)

UPDATE: The Yankees announced Ramirez was sent down roughly 14 seconds after I scheduled this post, so there you go. Ramirez was indeed the move for Vásquez.

Deivi García and Greg Weissert will be eligible to return Saturday and the Yankees could always go with Matt Krook, who’s been outstanding with the RailRiders (17.1 IP, 5 H, 34 K, 50.0 GB%). It would be nice to have a second lefty, particularly one who could go multiple innings, but we’ll see which way the Yankees go. That last bullpen spot will be a revolving door anyway.

The Padres have been very disappointing this season – they rank 25th with 3.92 runs scored per game! – but Vásquez will see Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Xander Bogaerts in his first inning as a big leaguer. On second thought, yeah, give the kid an opener. It’s just a spot start, but MLB debuts are exciting, and I hope Vásquez has a memorable one (for good reasons).

Miscellany

I don’t want to dwell on DJ LeMahieu’s bunt attempt Tuesday (video) so I will just quickly say I want him to swing the bat there (duh), though Yennier Cano’s 69.6% ground ball rate and LeMahieu’s suddenly soaring ground ball rate …

… meant the odds of a rally-killing and inning-ending double play ball were elevated. The larger issue is LeMahieu is in an 8-for-45 (.178) skid and apparently feels so bad at the plate that he was compelled to bunt in that situation. That was his fourth bunt in the last four years, so this isn’t something he does often. Well, whatever. The Yankees won the game, so it’s water under the bridge. Please start hitting again, DJ … Last week I noted Harrison Bader was 8-for-41 (.195) with no extra-base hits against righties. Since then, he’s hit two homers against righties. Even after all these years, I can still use my jinxing powers for good. I expect a postseason share, Yankees … And finally, I can’t say I ever remember a team challenging a call without first checking with the replay guy like the Yankees did in the ninth inning Wednesday. The runner, Ryan Mountcastle, looked out at first base live (video), though I didn’t think the safe call was egregious. Obviously Boone had a much better view of it from the dugout. He asked for a review immediately and gave us a quality GIF:

“It’s not even close. What are you doing out there?” Boone leaves a lot to be desired in terms of on-field strategy, but I will say he’s pretty good comic relief. Last week he flippantly waved his hand and told Blue Jays third base coach Luis Rivera to get back in the coach’s box, and now we have him giving the umpires the business. It’s baseball. We don’t have to take it so seriously.

2. Injury updates. As I write this Thursday afternoon, Spotrac says the Yankees lead baseball with 653 days lost to injury, the most in baseball. The Mets are second at 612, and no other team is over 537. I don’t know how reliable these numbers are, they always seem a little funky, but the Yankees leading baseball in days lost to injury would not be surprising in the least. Here’s the latest on all those injured players, some of whom are inching closer to a return.

Donaldson begins rehab assignment

Josh Donaldson, whose rehab was slowed recently because he cut his thumb putting something together for his daughter, started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Scranton on Thursday. He went 1-for-3 and played six innings at third base. Donaldson said his hamstring felt good and all that. He will play again Friday and Sunday, then the Yankees will reassess.

“Possibly in Seattle (next week),” Aaron Boone told the Associated Press when asked when Donaldson could be activated. “Probably more likely later in the week, just because he’s been down for so long. We’ll kind of evaluate at the end of Sunday, assuming we get there and everything is going well, whether we want to have him get another one or two (games) or not.”

My scorching hot take is the Yankees kinda need Donaldson. DJ LeMahieu is slumping badly and it has looked like he’s been playing in slow motion the last week or two. At this point in his career (35 in a few weeks, lots of injuries the last few years), LeMahieu simply may not be an everyday player anymore. The Yankees have to get him off his feet more often and Donaldson will help.

Don’t confuse this for me saying I want Donaldson back or that I expect him to produce. I think he’s done as a hitter. I’m just saying he would allow the Yankees to back off LeMahieu, and he’s (probably) a better hitter than Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun*. Their DH at-bats could instead go to LeMahieu. Donaldson will at least play great defense. Bauers and Calhoun don’t do much of anything. They’ve been so bad that late career Donaldson might be a better option.

* If you could combine Oswaldo Cabrera’s defense with Calhoun’s contact rates and Bauers’ exit velocity, you’d have a pretty good player! But separately, they all stink. Cabrera is hitting .199/.252/.301 (50 wRC+) two months into the season. He has to go to Triple-A when Donaldson returns. Enough is enough.

It’s a weird thing, understanding Donaldson can help the Yankees but also not looking forward to him coming back. I know the first time I see him swing through a hanging slider, I’ll want them to play LeMahieu at third base full-time, his workload be damned. But yeah, Donaldson can help. The Yankees can back off LeMahieu and know they’ll at least get top notch defense at third.

(Donaldson has missed close to two months now. His last MLB game was April 5th. Donaldson missing all that time and Oswald Peraza making only five – five! – starts at third base during his absence is an enormous missed opportunity. I don’t know what more of an opening the Yankees needed to play Peraza. He should have 30 games under his belt right now. Even if Peraza stunk, the Yankees would at least then know not to count on him down the stretch.)

Stanton nearing rehab assignment

The lineup lengthening bat the Yankees sorely need may not be far away. Giancarlo Stanton has been going through full baseball activities (batting practice, outfield work, running the bases, etc.) and he went for imaging on his hamstring Thursday to check the healing progress. Things came back okay and Stanton could begin a rehab assignment in the coming days.

Stanton has been out since April 15th and he’s looking at 3-4 rehab games, if not more. Can he make it back in time for the Dodger Stadium series next weekend? I am certain Stanton does not want to miss that. He grew up going to games at Dodger Stadium and he talks often about how special it is to play there, but if the rehab timeline doesn’t line up, it doesn’t line up.

Boone has said he plans to use Stanton in the outfield when he returns and we’ll see. The Yankees say this a lot and don’t always follow through. Stanton played five of his 14 games in right field before the injury, though that was when Harrison Bader was out. With Bader back, would the Yankees put Aaron Judge in left so Stanton could play right in the Bronx? They should, at least some of the time.

How they align everyone defensively is secondary to getting Stanton’s bat back and lengthening the lineup. And hopefully Stanton performs better than he did when he returned from the injured list last June. He hit .166/.272/.425 (99 wRC+) in his final 284 plate appearances last season and that’s not gonna cut it. The Yankees need Stanton to return and be impactful.

Kahnle nearing return

Tommy Kahnle made his third rehab appearance Thursday and his rehab stint has been uneventful: 3 H, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K. All three rehab games were in Statcast parks and his fastball has averaged 95.3 mph and topped out at 96.0 mph, which is Spring Training-ish velocity. Thursday he got three outs spanning two innings and that was a box the Yankees wanted him to check, pitching in two separate innings.

Point is, Kahnle is healthy and pitching, and inching closer to rejoining the Yankees. He says he’s ready to go, of course, but Kahnle is a crazy person (I mean that in a good way) who would pitch every single day if the Yankees let him. Kahnle did not have a Spring Training though, and the Yankees want him to make at least one more rehab appearance, and possibly get four outs at some point before returning.

Kahnle is eligible to be activated Monday. The Yankees could have him make one more rehab appearance Saturday, then join them for the start of the West Coast trip Monday in Seattle. That seems doable. And if the Yankees decide he needs a little more rehab time, so be it. Either way, Kahnle is not far away. He should be back within a week. Hooray for that.

(The Yankees will need to clear a 40-man roster spot when Kahnle comes off the 60-day injured list. Carlos Rodón can go on the 60-day injured list, plus Bauers or Calhoun might get designated for assignment when Donaldson returns. The 40-man spot won’t be an issue.)

Rodón joins Yankees, progresses with throwing program

Not a whole lot to update with Carlos Rodón, who escaped from Tampa and joined the Yankees in New York to continue his rehab. He said the cortisone shot did the trick and he no longer has discomfort in his back, and he is on a throwing program. At this point though, that just means he is playing catch. Rodón has yet to throw off a mound.

"That’s up to the training staff and how they think I’m proceeding throughout the throwing,” Rodón told MLB.com about his timetable for throwing off a mound. “I feel like I was capable today (Tuesday), but obviously there’s patience involved in the whole process. Whenever they say to get on the mound, I’m sure I will be ready.”

The good news is Rodón’s forearm, the injury that originally sidelined him in Spring Training, is a non-issue. He’s had no discomfort for weeks. The back is the primary concern now, and given how early he is in his throwing program, Rodón is probably looking at a return in early July at the earliest. He has a long build up and a lot of rehab games ahead of him.

“That's a good barometer for him feeling good,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Gary Phillips about Rodón being clocked at 85-86 mph while playing catch. “And the ball was coming out well. We're getting close to him getting off the mound here shortly.”

We’ll know Rodón has truly turned the corner when he is able to face hitters without his back acting up. He’s played catch a bunch in recent weeks. We’ve been here before. Throwing off a mound with intensity will be the real test. I’m glad the cortisone shot seems to have worked, but Rodón is not close to returning, and playing catch doesn’t tell us a whole lot.

“He’s moving in a good direction. Now we want to keep that momentum going,” Boone told Peter Botte earlier this week. “... I know that it’s killing him not to be out there, but we also want to make sure we do right by him too, and make sure that when he does come back, he’s able to be that guy we expect. Hopefully we’ve started down that road now.”

Miscellany

Jose Trevino (hamstring) has started running and going through baseball activities. He is eligible to come off the injured list Sunday, though earlier this week Boone said “I don’t know if that’s in play or not,” so Trevino may not return until next week. Maybe that means Ben Rortvedt will get a third start at some point … Nothing new with Ian Hamilton (groin) or Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow). Neither is throwing yet, which is not unexpected. Hamilton is nine days into what the Yankees believe will be a four-week absence. Loáisiga had the bone spur taken out of his elbow on May 2nd and the surgery came with a 3-6 week shutdown period. He is three weeks and three days into that 3-6 week period … And finally, this is not an injury update but rather a suspension update: Domingo Germán has spent his suspension in Tampa and he threw an 80-ish pitch simulated game Wednesday to stay sharp. That lines him up to make his start Monday. He’ll rejoin the Yankees this weekend. So there you go.

3. 2023 draft prospects: New York HS SS Sammy Stafura. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Stafura, 18, is a local kid from Mohegan Lake, New York, just a few Metro North stops north of Yankee Stadium. He’s hitting .571/.626/1.234 against weak competition this spring, though he did stand out in showcase events the last two summers, including posting 92nd percentile exit velocities at Perfect Game. Here are Stafura’s current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 57
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 50
• FanGraphs: Unranked
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 47
• MLB.com: No. 119

The rankings say he’s a second or third round talent, though Stafura is an arrow up player, so much so that Astros GM Dana Brown has scouted him personally, per Ben Badler (subs. req’d). The GM doesn’t travel to see second or third rounders. Stafura’s put himself in the first round mix this spring. Here’s video and here’s MLB.com’s free scouting report:

A right-handed-hitting middle infielder, Stafura has gained strength since the summer and that has shown up in his performance. He can drive the ball to all fields, with the ability to hit it hard the other way at times, but it’s strength over bat speed with a bit of a stiff swing, leading some to see him more as a power-over-hit type.

Stafura is an excellent athlete and plus runner, one who even played some center field over the summer. But there’s a stronger belief he can stick at shortstop long term, another reason for his helium, with good actions and enough arm for the premium position. It’s been a little tough to evaluate him this spring because the league he plays in isn’t super-competitive, but teams buying the bat might consider the Clemson recruit in the top few rounds.

That scouting report is a bit outdated. More recently, Badler (subs. req’d) said Stafura has “gotten bigger, faster and stronger” and has “an explosive, compact swing that produces a high contact rate and the approach to stay through the ball and use the whole field.” He adds Stafura “checks a lot of boxes whether a team prioritizes the hit tool and game performance or places more of an emphasis on athleticism and the ability to play up the middle.”

Stafura sounds Yankee-like based on the latest information and, sure enough, Keith Law (subs. req’d) says the Yankees have been “heavy” on him the last few weeks, meaning they’ve scouted him a bunch. Even though they’ve gone heavy on college players in recent years, I doubt the Yankees have closed the door on high schoolers completely. Cutting off an entire pool of players is bad business, and Stafura sounds up their alley.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mike asks: Assuming the Rockies would be willing to dump him (which isn't a slam dunk for sentimental and also inept organization reasons), would Charlie Blackmon make any sense for this roster? I know he's a shell of himself and has only played RF/DH this year, but lefty bat, with pop plus by all accounts a good clubhouse guy, is there a fit?

Blackmon has 10-and-5 no-trade protection and has given no indication he wants to leave the Rockies, so this is all hypothetical. The soon-to-be 37-year-old is hitting .280/.370/.433 (107 wRC+) this year and he owns a .274/.340/.422 (94 wRC+) line in over 1,600 plate appearances the last four years. Park factors still haven’t completely figured out Coors Field, but clearly, Blackmon’s bat is just okay at this point.

The upside is a high contact lefty hitter (14.1% strikeouts and 8.3% swinging strikes) who pulls the ball in the air a ton (Blackmon’s ground ball and pull rates are about the same as Anthony Rizzo’s). The downside is very bad defense (-42 DRS and -35 OAA since 2018), zero innings in left field since 2015, and no baserunning value. Blackmon’s a platoon-ish DH at this point.

And you know what? That might actually work for the Yankees. Blackmon is a better version of Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun, and if he’s willing to accept a part-time role like Matt Carpenter last season, it could work. The Yankees need a bench bat and Blackmon offers contact and the ability to pull the ball in the air to right field. He appears to be a good match for the short porch.

My perfect world post-trade deadline lineup would look something like this:

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. LF to be acquired
6. 3B to be acquired
7. CF Harrison Bader
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. C Jose Trevino

Bench: C Kyle Higashioka, IF DJ LeMahieu, LH bench bat, UTIL guy

Send Josh Donaldson to Ellsbury Island, bring in a replacement third baseman, get a legit middle of the order lefty bat to play left field, and use LeMahieu in a 3-4 days a week role. The last bench spot could go to Greg Allen, Oswaldo Cabrera, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whoever. Blackmon can be the lefty bench bat who makes spot starts, pinch-hits for the catcher, so on and so forth. He could be useful in that role.

Blackmon is in the final year of his contract and he’s owed the remainder of his $10M salary, so the money is not onerous. Maybe he would request a trade to chase a ring as his career winds down, and the Rockies would move him? I dunno. I don’t expect it to happen, and I would prefer a more lively bat for the bench, but sure, Blackmon could work in a reduced role.

Benjamin asks: Talk to me, Mike. Why would Kris Bryant be a bad fit for this team? 3b, LF.... injury and salary aside... Rockies are nuts, so couldn't Cashman rappel something for the trade?

Bryant, now 31, is hitting .274/.352/.394 (94 wRC+) this year and .293/.366/.438 (111 wRC+) in 376 plate appearances around a serious foot injury in his two seasons with the Rockies. He’s actually been better on the road (131 wRC+) than at Coors Field (92 wRC+) the last two years. The Rockies owe Bryant the rest of his $27M salary this year, plus $131M from 2024-28.

The Yankees need a left fielder now and both a third baseman and a left fielder long-term, and Bryant could fill any of those roles. He can play left this year and then move to third next year, or he could stay in left next year. Whatever works. The Yankees don’t need another whiff-prone righty, but squint your eyes and there are ways Bryant can help the Yankees.

How much would the Rockies have to eat for this to make sense? If they ate enough money to turn Bryant into, say, a $15M a year player from 2024-28, would that work? Colorado’s third highest paid player this season is the $16M they’re paying Nolan Arenado to play for the Cardinals. They do dumb things, like all the time, and it could be cool for the Yankees to capitalize.

I am unenthused by Bryant. He’s already showing signs of decline (and getting hurt more often) and that’s a long commitment. There’s always a point where it makes sense. Maybe the idiot Rockies are willing to eat enough money that he’s a $7M a year player. The Yankees would kinda have to jump on that. Bryant’s an okay fit on the field. Better than what they have in left field right now, for sure. Whether it makes sense depends entirely on the price and money. I’m a meh.

Dan asks: Now that some time has passed since the Braves acquired Olson, do you think the Yanks would've been better off with Matt Olson or Anthony Rizzo?

The Yankees are better off having re-signed Rizzo. Olson was traded with two years of control remaining, then the Braves signed him long-term. This would have been his free agent season otherwise. Here are their numbers since last Opening Day:

• Olson: .239/.344/.489 (124 wRC+), 48 HR, 26.1 K%, +4.5 WAR in 920 PA
• Rizzo: .248/.350/.491 (138 wRC+), 43 HR, 19.8 K%, +4.1 WAR in 792 PA

The difference in plate appearances is significant, Olson is very durable and Rizzo’s back is a nagging issue, but Rizzo has performed better when on the field, and he only cost money to re-sign. And Olson will make $36M from 2022-23. Rizzo will make $33M. I don’t care about the money, the Yankees can afford to pay them whatever, but Rizzo is slightly cheaper.

Atlanta gave up four prospects to get Olson. Here’s what I wrote at the time of the trade:

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says the A’s received Atlanta's No. 2 (Langeliers), No. 3 (Pache), No. 9 (Cusick), and No. 14 (Estes) prospects in the trade. The Yankees equivalent to this trade is something like Estevan Florial circa Spring Training 2020 (Pache), bizarro Austin Wells who can defend but has a questionable bat (Langeliers), Luis Gil (Cusick), and Randy Vasquez (Estes).

The Yankees wouldn’t miss any of those guys, would they? Maybe they would have come to miss them down the road, Wells in particular, but right now? Nah. I did not expect Rizzo to perform as well as he’s performed with the Yankees. He was trending down his last few years with the Cubs but has found the Fountain of Youth (i.e. the short porch). At this point, yeah, the Yankees made the right move re-signing him and not trading for Olson, which is a thing I wanted them to do.

Jon asks: Reading your bit about Will Warren earlier, I went and checked out what you wrote about him in your top 30 prospects. You pointed out the command issues - which made me wonder about him becoming another Mike King-type (allowing actual Mike King to do even more important Mike King things in more critical innings). Would that be more useful than a depth starter, at least for this year, when the Yankees theoretically get Rodon back eventually, and have Brito as depth?

The question with just about every pitching prospect in the system is whether they’ll be able to start long-term. They all seem to have incredible stuff (big velocity, huge sweepers, etc.) but also double-digit walk rates and home run issues. Drew Thorpe is the best combination of stuff and command in the system. Warren is right behind him while being much closer to the big leagues.

For this season and this season only, I think Warren would be most valuable to the Yankees as a reliever. The Yankees should continue to develop him as a starter long-term, it seems like he has a chance to do it, but for the 2023 Yankees, Warren could be a nice bullpen weapon. Come in, spam hitters with the sweeper, and there you go. He could be a Mike King type. Sure.

Warren has never pitched in relief, so the Yankees should (and would) have him come out of the bullpen a few times in Triple-A to get used to it, but it’s worth considering. I say leave him as a starter for now, at least until Carlos Rodón returns and/or the Yankees add a starter at the trade deadline. If the rotation is in good shape come August, then by all means, see whether Warren can be a bullpen weapon down the stretch and into October. If not, start him.

Dmytro asks: Boone’s latest Boonedoggle (asking DJ to bunt.. twice!!) in a late and close game got me thinking.. with advancements in run expectancy calculations, are we any closer to assessing manager WAR? Just by calculating what a manager does vs what a win expectancy chart would suggest was right, wouldn’t we be able to assess how many runs Boone costs us? I feel like he somehow gets worse instead of learning from mistakes.

DJ LeMahieu said he bunted on his own and Aaron Boone said he was okay with it, and the fact he didn’t take the bunt off after LeMahieu squared around the first time tells us that yes, Boone was indeed okay with it. Even with the elevated double play potential, I think LeMahieu has to swing the bat there. He doesn’t bunt often and Yennier Cano is nasty. The degree of difficulty was high.

As for manager WAR, there have been attempts to calculate it over the years, most notably by Adam Darowski. It’s just way too difficult. There is so much unknown (which reliever is unavailable that day? who called for a bunt and who bunted on his own?) and, ultimately, it’s on the players to perform. The manager can push all the right buttons and things still may not work out, and then we blame the manager for making the wrong move anyway.

This is Boone’s fifth 162-game season as Yankees manager. Here are some numbers on the previous four (2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022):

• Actual record: 394-254 (.608)
• Expected record based on run differential: 390-258 (.602)
• FanGraphs preseason projections: 381-266 (.589)
• PECOTA preseason projections: 389-259 (.600)

The Yankees were four wins better than their run differential in Boone’s four completed 162-game seasons. Can we attribute those extra wins to Boone? What about the wins over the projections? For much of Joe Girardi’s tenure, the Yankees outperformed their run differential. By the end of his tenure, they underperformed it. The 2017 Yankees went 91-71 despite a 100-62 record based on run differential. Did Girardi become a worse manager? Maybe!

Coming up with manager WAR is above my pay grade. We do have better information now about win probability and matchups and things like that, so maybe there is a framework that can be built around that. Ultimately, we’ll never have a complete picture, or even anything close to a complete picture. I’d be interested to see manager WAR though, no doubt.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)