May 22nd, 2023: Severino, Rortvedt, Allen, Feliz, Judge, Cole, Volpe, Prospects

When’s the last time the Yankees and Orioles played an important series? 2012? Gotta be. That was the last time both teams were serious contenders in the same season. It’s only May, but yeah, this upcoming three-gamer with the O’s is pretty important. The new schedule gives you fewer opportunities to take care of business against division rivals.And hey, this could be a Wild Card Series preview. Too early to think about that though. Here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday evening since it’s an off-day.

1. Weekend thoughts. Since returning from the injured list Aaron Judge is 17-for-45 (.378) with three doubles, seven homers, and nearly as many walks (11) as strikeouts (15). His batting line is up to .299/.400/.642 (178 wRC+). You can’t expect him to repeat last season, that’s just crazy … but maybe? At minimum, Judge is locked in right now. No doubt about that. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Severino returns

Welcome back, Luis Severino. He looked really good. The Reds aren’t exactly Murderer’s Row, but Severino’s stuff was firm and his location was good Sunday. The only run he allowed came on that weird Jake Bauers misplay, when the umpire initially called it foul and Bauers gave up on it (because that’s what players do after the umpire calls it foul). Whatever. No harm, no foul.

"I felt really good," Severino told John Fay. "I felt like I was attacking the zone after the first walk. Everything else was right there. I felt good. I was saving something for the end. I was disappointed (to not complete five innings), but we got the win. That's the most important thing."

The numbers on Severino’s slider were a bit funky (less break and more velocity than last year), though it could be a one-start blip. I’ll keep an eye on it. Everything else checked out though. Severino even threw harder as he got deeper in the game. He was 94-95 mph in the first inning and 98-99 mph in the fifth. Five of his six fastest pitches came in that fifth inning.

Severino threw 75 pitches, exactly his target for the day, and it looked like he still had gas in the tank when he exited. A lot of times you can tell when a guy is hitting a wall near the end of his outing. That wasn’t the case with Severino. He was throwing the ball better in the fifth inning than the first inning. All in all, a very encouraging first game back.

“I was saving some bullets for the end there,” Severino told Greg Joyce. “I knew my leash wasn’t going to be long. I wanted to make sure I’m good.”

The Yankees will likely have Severino on a 85-pitch limit next start, then a 95-pitch limit the start after that. After that, he should be fully built up and without restrictions, not that the Yankees will be reckless and run him into the ground. Overall though, Severino looked really good. Barely any rust. He looks ready to be the rotation boost the Yankees need.

"It's amazing seeing him back on the mound," Harrison Bader told Fay. "The way he works, his stuff, his energy. To see his stuff, the way it works – I got a really good view from center field – he's electric. I couldn't have been more happy he's back."

Rortvedt debuts

Ben Rortvedt exists! And the Yankees are a perfect 4-0 with him on the roster this year. Rortvedt made his long-awaited Yankees debut Saturday and smacked a loud opposite field double in his first at-bat. He’s got a nice looking swing too (video). A lefty hitting backup catcher with a little pop and good defense would be so great. Maybe that’s Rortvedt next season. We’ll see.

“Today was awesome,” Rortvedt told Joyce following Saturday’s game. “I tried to take it all in. It was a great day all-around, great win.”

Kyle Higashioka has started three of the four games since Jose Trevino landed on the injured list (Rortvedt started a day game after a night game) and I’m guessing he’ll continue to get most of the starts. Rortvedt has limited experience with the pitching staff (he caught Jhony Brito, who he caught in Triple-A last year) and the Yankees value that pitcher-catcher relationship so much.

Trevino is eligible to return Saturday – “He’s already moving around pretty well, so it does feel like it is going to be a short stint,” Aaron Boone told Joyce – so I’m not sure how many more times we’ll see Rortvedt. At least once more before Trevino returns, I would think. Higashioka catching four straight games between now and then seems unlikely.

I understand he has little experience with this pitching staff, but I hope Rortvedt gets another start or two before Trevino returns. The Yankees are tentatively scheduled to see five righty starters in the next five games. The matchups are in Rortvedt’s favor. He’s here, might as well play him. At least now we know Rortvedt exists. We can move on to pretending Carlos Rodón doesn’t exist.

(Not gonna lie, I was kinda hoping Isiah Kiner-Falefa would catch in a game for the Yankees before Rortvedt, just for the absurdity. Alas.)

Yet another glove issue

The season is 49 games old and the Yankees have now had four glove-related mishaps. Clarke Schmidt joined the party over the weekend because there was concern about discoloration on his left wrist. Apparently it was an issue with the fuzz on the inside of his glove. I’m not joking. Here’s the video and here’s what crew chief Brian O’Nora told Fay following Friday’s game:

"It is our discretion," O'Nora said. “[Third-base ump Nestor Ceja] checked him. He noticed something just a little tacky. He called the whole crew down. It wasn't shiny. It wasn't dark like pine tar. It was that fuzz from the inside part of his glove, I think. As a crew, we told him to go wash it off. He washed it off, nothing was on his hand. It wasn't sticky, and it wasn't a foreign substance."

Nestor Cortes had to black out the 44 on his glove on April 9th, Domingo Germán was told to wash his hands on April 15th and got busted with sticky stuff on May 16th, and then there was an issue with Schmidt’s glove hand on May 19th. Schmidt’s a monster spin rate guy, so if you were to put together a list of suspected foreign substance users, he’d be on it. This wasn’t that though. The umpires had an issue with his left wrist of all things.

"They checked his hands and he was fine," Boone told Fay. "He has a black glove, so when they checked there was black (on his wrist). Basically, the black fur of the glove with resin and sweat, the color got to his wrist, so they wanted him to wash his wrist."

The thing is, the Yankees are the only team having these issues repeatedly. Max Scherzer got caught with sticky stuff on April 19th and the Mets have had no trouble since. There have been no other foreign substance ejections around the league nor has any other pitcher been told to wash his hands as far as I can tell. When this stuff happens, you know about it because everyone rushes to call the guy a cheater, and I haven't seen any non-Yankees or non-Scherzers run into trouble.

MLB is not out to get the Yankees, nor do I think umpires are using the Yankees to prove a point (you better not cheat because we’re watching, etc.). I think the Yankees are just sloppy. The thing with Nestor’s glove was very dumb, but Germán got caught with a foreign substance a month after he was told to wash his hands! Then Schmidt had something going on with his left wrist, a place where pitchers traditionally keep sunscreen to help with their grip.

I dunno, maybe I’m making too much of this. It’s just that when it keeps happening to the same team over and over, you have to look at the team and not the umpires or the league. The Yankees just have to be more careful. That’s all. Germán wasn’t careful even though he was obviously on the watch list, and now he’s suspended. It’s the kinda thing that shouldn’t happen twice.

“You don’t want to know what’s going through my head,” Boone told Joyce about the umpires checking Schmidt. “But obviously we need to avoid that at all costs and make sure we’re holding each other to account all the time.”

Miscellany

I hope Jimmy Cordero gets paid time and a half for last week. He made four appearances, all scoreless, and threw five innings and 84 pitches in the seven days. Only five of the 19 batters he faced hit the ball out of the infield too. The Yankees are far from perfect, they’ve made plenty of mistakes the last two years, but I trust them implicitly with the bullpen. They always figure it out, even if it feels like they’re pulling guys out of the bleachers at times. Great work, Jimmy. Enjoy the off-day … Why no opener for Brito this past weekend? Did it work too well last week or something? I get the bullpen has been taxed, but unless you plan on leaving Brito out there to throw a complete game, the bullpen will get used anyway, so use it in a way that maximizes Brito effectiveness. Whatever, it all worked out in the end. Brito was sent down following Saturday’s start, so the Yankees will need a spot starter later this week before Germán is eligible to return … And finally, Anthony Volpe went from walking nonstop to not walking at all. Four walks in his last 96 plate appearances dating back to the Target Field series. There has to be a middle ground between the 14.8% walk rate he had in April and the 4.8% walk rate he has in May. I hope Volpe finds it soon.

2. On Monday’s off-day and the June schedule. Monday was a long-awaited and much-needed off-day. The Yankees just wrapped up a 17 games in 17 days stretch (seven of those games were on turf too) and the bullpen worked very hard last week. Going 12-5 in those 17 games is an excellent outcome (three of the five losses were by one run and another was a 0-0 game into extra innings). Well done, fellas. Enjoy the off-day.

"Great trip,” Aaron Boone told John Fay after Sunday’s win. "Tough stretch, 33 games out of 34 (days). We’ve been beat. We’ve got some guys out. I’m excited by how well this team is competing. Walk in with edge, prepare and compete. They’re doing that at a high level right now.”

While May has been a difficult month schedule-wise, things are much more favorable in June. The Yankees have six off-days in June, including every Monday, and they won’t play more than six consecutive days all month. Here’s the June schedule:

So many empty boxes! And after that Dodgers series to begin the month, the Yankees will spend 18 of the next 21 days in New York, (and the Boston series is easy travel). All those off-days will allow the Yankees to give their starters extra rest and back off the bullpen a bit. It also means they won’t have to sit the regulars quite as much because a scheduled off-day is always right around the corner.

Monday (as in today) is an off-day, then the Yankees will play three-game series against the Orioles, Padres, and Mariners. Those nine games in nine games take the Yankees to the June 1st off-day, then they’ll have (by far) their easiest month of the season in terms of off-days and travel. It’ll be a good opportunity to rest a bit and heal up, and hopefully bank wins along the way.

3. Latest roster moves. The Yankees made their most significant roster move of 2023 over the weekend: Aaron Hicks was designated for assignment, and the Yankees will eat the $27M or so remaining on his contract. Eating that money instead of optioning Oswaldo Cabrera or dumping Jake Bauers or Willie Calhoun says a lot about where Hicks stood with the organization. Cutting Hicks was not the only roster move the Yankees made over the weekend. Here’s the latest.

Yankees acquire Allen

As you already know, the Yankees added Greg Allen in a minor trade with the Red Sox. Allen used an opt out clause in his minor league contract to force a move (Boston had to put him on their big league roster or release him) and that led to his trade back to New York. And again, as you already know, Allen replaced Hicks on the roster over the weekend. Here are the last five Yankees-Red Sox trades before Allen:

• Jan. 25th, 2021: Adam Ottavino and Frank German for salary relief
• June 31st, 2014: Kelly Johnson for Stephen Drew
• Aug. 13th, 1997: Tony Armas and Jim Mecir for Randy Brown and Mike Stanley
• March 29th, 1986: Don Baylor for Mike Easler
• March 22nd, 1972: Danny Cater and Mike Guerrero for Sparky Lyle

Why did the Yankees want Allen? Because he’s faster and a better defender than Hicks. Neither guy will hit much (though Allen did leg out a triple Sunday), so it’s all about the secondary skills. Allen pinch-ran Saturday and Sunday, and Sunday he stole second and took third on a wild pitch, leading to an insurance run. Allen’s already shown his value. He provides a greater speed element than Hicks.

“Switch-hitter, versatility, good at the role, can run,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce about Allen. “He’s very good at doing that as well. He’s played here before and has done a really nice job with us in the past. A chance to add a little bit of depth.”

Ultimately, Allen is a better fit for the fourth outfielder’s role, and he seems more comfortable and/or more willing to accept that role than Hicks. That’s all there is to it. Allen will pinch-run a bunch and do a lot of defensive replacing for whichever non-outfielder the Yankees are playing in the outfield that day. There won’t be that pull to give Allen starts the way there was that pull to give Hicks starts given his contract and who he was a few years ago.

Before rejoining the Yankees, the 30-year-old Allen hit .250/.407/.388 (113 wRC+) with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate, and he was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen base attempts. He spent most of 2021 with Triple-A Scranton and hit .326/.442/.465 (152 wRC+) with five home runs and 26 steals as a RailRider. Allen went 10-for-37 (.270) with four doubles and a triple in 15 games as a COVID replacement with the Yankees in late July and early August in 2021.

The Yankees sent righty Diego Hernández and cash to the Red Sox in the trade. Hernández, 18, was part of the 2022 international signing class and he had a 2.10 ERA (3.26 FIP) with a 32.9% strikeout rate in the Dominican Summer League last year. He had the internal brace procedure (the Tommy John surgery alternative) recently and will likely miss the season. Hernández is a long shot lottery ticket type. You’re not gonna get much more for a guy like Allen.

So, the Yankees dumped an unproductive and unpopular (with fans) player in Hicks, and replaced him with a speed-and-defense type in Allen who is a better fit in a reserve role. The Yankees are a slightly better team on the margins, though this doesn't significantly change their season outlook. They still need a real left fielder to improve the offense and lengthen the lineup, among other things.

Yankees sign Feliz

The Yankees have signed journeyman righty reliever Michael Feliz to a minor league contract, per the MiLB transactions log. He’s currently in Extended Spring Training getting up to speed. I gotta think he’ll join Triple-A Scranton in the near future. Feliz, 29, had a 5.29 ERA (4.17 FIP) in 250 big league innings with five teams from 2015-22. He spent most of last season in Triple-A.

Feliz is a 95-and-a-slider reliever (video), though he’s been with enough analytically savvy teams (Astros, Athletics, Red Sox) that there’s probably something under-the-hood working in his favor. Before hooking on with the Yankees, Feliz allowed one run and struck out 13 in 8.1 innings in the Mexican League. He’s been pitching, so his ExST tune up shouldn’t take long.

June is coming and that usually means opt outs. The Feliz signing may have been a preemptive replenishment of depth. Someone(s) in Triple-A Scranton’s bullpen may have an opt out coming up and the Yankees made sure they have a replacement ready to go. If that’s all Feliz is, fine. You never know when the Yankees will turn a random depth pickup into a viable reliever though.

Peraza activated and optioned

As expected, the Yankees optioned Oswald Peraza back to Triple-A Scranton once his time on the 10-day injured list was up. This all happened Friday, just to be precise. Peraza went 8-for-15 with three homers, including two Friday night (video), in four “rehab” games with the RailRiders before rejoining them as a non-rehabber. He went 6-for-32 (.188) with the big league team.

Peraza, 23 next month, missed about two weeks with that ankle injury he suffered stumbling into second base against the Guardians. He’s hitting .362/.413/.569 (150 wRC+) in 14 games with Scranton this season. Peraza has only played shortstop since rejoining the RailRiders. What the Yankees plan to do with him – how they will incorporate him into the MLB roster – is a mystery to me. Peraza seems like the kinda player you make room for, but the Yankees aren’t. Shrug.

4. Five things you may or may not know about the 2023 Yankees. Baseball has a way of giving you so much to write about and also nothing to write about. They play every single day, so there’s always something happening, but you can only write about how amazing Aaron Judge is so many times before you feel like you’re repeating yourself. Know what I mean?

Baseball also has a way of giving you interesting little nuggets that maybe aren’t worth a full post or breakdown, but leaving them on the cutting room floor feels like a waste. For example, did you know lefties are 0-for-23 with nine strikeouts and a 66.7% ground ball rate against Wandy Peralta? I’d been sitting on that one for a few days. Good to get it out there.

I’m going to use this space to highlight a few random nuggets that maybe only I find interesting. If it goes well, we can make this a regular feature. Not every single post. Just whenever I have stuff to share and it makes sense to run it. Anyway, here are five things you may or may not know about the 2023 Yankees.

Judge is underperforming his contact quality

It’s kinda crazy to say a guy hitting .299/.400/.642 (178 wRC+) is underperforming, but based on the quality of the contact Judge has made this season, yeah, his numbers probably should be a bit better. He’s crushing the ball this year. Even moreso than last season, when Judge had the best offensive season since Barry Bonds. Here are Judge’s contact quality numbers:

Last year’s actual numbers were better than this year’s but this year’s expected numbers (plus the raw exit velocity and whatnot) are better than last year’s. The expected numbers aren’t precise enough to say “Judge should be slugging .757 right now,” they’re just a quick and dirty measure of contact quality, and yeah, Judge is annihilating the baseball. Even better contact than last year.

Now, it’s one thing to do it across a full season like 2020 and another to do it across two months like 2023, but Judge did just do it across a full season. Why can’t he do it again? He’s in his prime, he’s healthy (as far as we know), he’s motivated. I keep saying Judge won’t repeat 2022, but geez, maybe I’m underestimating him. He’s been awesome this year. In some ways even better than last year.

Cole is becoming a two-pitch pitcher

This is a recent trend more than a season-long trend, but Gerrit Cole has thrown 79% fastballs and sliders in his last three starts. He’s usually around 60% fastballs, 15% sliders, 15% curves, and 10% changeups. The last three times out he’s upped his slider usage and cut back on everything else. Here’s the graph:

It could be a matchup thing. Cole faced the Rays twice and the Blue Jays once in his last three starts, and those are AL East rivals and with good lineups, and it could be Cole leaned on his slider against those teams because it’s his best secondary pitch. Then again, Cole did face the Blue Jays last month, and had his usual pitch mix (and dominated). Hmmm.

I don’t think there’s anything alarming or significant here yet. I’m not gonna doubt Cole when it comes to pitch usage or really anything involving pitching. If he decides to break out a knuckleball one day, I would assume there’s a reason for it. But yeah, Cole has been a two-pitch guy lately. It’s a bit out of character.

Volpe has stolen third base five times

And that is tied with several others (including Anthony Rizzo last year, of all people) for the most steals of third base by a Yankee since Brett Gardner did it six times in 2013. Only Esteury Ruiz (seven) and Whit Merrifield (six) have stolen third more times than Anthony Volpe this year. Here are the last five Yankees to steal third more than five times in a single season:

• Brett Gardner, 2013: 6
• Brett Gardner, 2011: 10
• Derek Jeter, 2009: 7
• Derek Jeter, 2006: 13
• Derek Jeter, 2005: 10

The season is not even two months old and Volpe’s already halfway to being the first Yankee with double-digit steals of third base since Gardner in 2011. Also, Volpe is a perfect 13-for-13 stealing bases this year. That is the most steals with a 100% success rate in baseball. Christian Yelich is next at 10-for-10, Taylor Walls is 9-for-9, and no one else is better than 7-for-7.

At +4.3 runs, FanGraphs has Volpe as the second most valuable baserunner in baseball, behind only Ruiz (+4.5 runs). That covers everything. Stolen bases, first-to-thirds, moving up on pitches in the dirt, etc. Volpe’s bat has been up and down and the glove has been solid. His baserunning has been top of the line though. He makes something happen every time he’s on base.

The Yankees lead MLB in pitch clock violations

The Yankees have been hit with 17 pitcher pitch clock violations, tied with the Cardinals for the most in baseball. I never would have guessed it. Violations seem rare, and that’s a good thing. Only 17 violations in 49 games? One every 26 innings or so? That’s nothing. Here are the culprits:

• 3 violations: Albert Abreu, Jimmy Cordero
• 2 violations: Nestor Cortes, Ian Hamilton, Wandy Peralta
• 1 violation: Gerrit Cole, Domingo Germán, Mike King, Clarke Schmidt, Greg Weissert

Clay Holmes and Ron Marinaccio are the only Yankees to spend the entire season on the MLB roster and not take a pitch clock violation. And I guess Jhony Brito, who was optioned briefly in April (and again this past weekend) but didn’t miss a start because he was called back up so quickly. Everyone else got dinged at least once.

Those are the pitcher pitch clock violations. The Yankees have the most in baseball. On the flip side, they’ve had only one hitter pitch clock violation, tied with the Orioles for the fewest. That violation went to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and as I mentioned at the time, I couldn’t find it. I went back and watched his at-bats and nothing. A phantom violation. Hmmm. The most pitcher violations and the fewest hitter violations. A team of extremes, this is.

Cortes and Germán have gotten no help from the bullpen

As a team, the Yankees have allowed 31 of 79 inherited runners to score this year, or 39%. The league average is 34%. I blame Aaron Boone for incessantly sending his starter back out with a one or two baserunner leash. Here are the starting pitchers who have gotten no help from their bullpen. These guys have seen a lot of the runners they left on base come around to score:

1. Shintaro Fujinami: 11 of 16 (69%)
2. Nestor Cortes: 7 of 8 (88%)
3. Dylan Cease: 7 of 11 (64%)
4. Reid Detmers: 7 of 12 (58%)
5. Domingo Germán: 6 of 8 (75%)

Cortes and Germán have handed 16 baserunners over to the bullpen and 13 have scored, or 81%. That means the rest of the Yankees are at 18 of 63, or 29%. Give them a 29% inherited runner rate like everyone else, and Cortes would have a 4.28 ERA instead of a 5.21 ERA, and Germán would have a 3.00 ERA instead of a 3.75 ERA. *shakes fist at the bullpen*

Albert Abreu (5 of 7) has been the main inherited runner culprit. Jimmy Cordero and Ian Hamilton are both 4 of 8. Wandy Peralta is 1 for 8 and Ron Marinaccio is 5 for 16 (31%), so they’ve done good work. Those 16 runners Marinaccio has inherited are the seventh most in baseball. The Yankees as a team have handed the seventh most inherited runners over to the bullpen, so yeah, stop sending the starter back out with a one or two baserunner leash, Boonie.

5. Prospect thoughts. The minor league season is just about two months old and that means we’re approaching promotion season. One notable Yankees prospect was bumped up last week and we’ll talk about him in a second. A few others could follow in the coming weeks. Here now are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Warren promoted to Triple-A

A few weeks ago I mentioned RHP Will Warren was pitching well with Double-A Somerset and putting himself in position for a quick promotion*, and that promotion came last week. He joined Scranton last Thursday and had a fine Triple-A debut: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 2 HR. Clint Frazier took him deep (video). Giving up a dinger to Clint must be a Triple-A rite of passage.

* Specifically, I said Warren could get bumped up after another 3-5 starts. He made three more starts with Somerset before the promotion.

Because Warren’s now in Triple-A, we have Statcast data. Here are the big picture numbers on his Triple-A debut last Thursday:

Sigh, a sweeper and a slider. MLB keeps shoving the sweeper pitch classification down our throats. Warren throws a curveball and a slider and yes, the slider is a sweeper. It has that huge horizontal break, more than twice the MLB average based on Thursday’s game. The curveball is more of a traditional downer, not one that breaks away from righties and into lefties. It’s getting lumped in with some else. Warren's curveballs are being misclassified sliders or sweepers.

Warren’s four-seamer is not new (I mean, it’s a four-seam fastball, everyone has one), though he is throwing it more this season. Velocity is fine, spin is good, and the induced vertical break (i.e. “rise”) is roughly MLB average, again based only on Thursday. One start is just one start, so we'll keep tabs on everything moving forward. Warren’s sweeper is very good pitch. Statcast confirms what we already knew.

“With Will, opening up both sides of the plate has been a big focus of ours through Spring Training and into now with both fastballs, not just the two seam,” Double-A Somerset pitching coach Grayson Crawford told Randy Miller recently. “Will’s two-strike execution has been much improved from last year.”

Most importantly, Warren is now one step closer to the big leagues at a time when the Yankees are lacking rotation depth. Luis Severino just returned and Jhony Brito was sent to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter, and that’s great. But who’s next in line after Brito? The Yankees have walked a tightrope with the rotation all year and so far have gotten through it okay.

If need be, Warren might be able to out-stuff big league hitters right now, similar to Luis Gil in 2021. In a perfect world Warren would spend the rest of the season in Triple-A and then become a factor next year. If the Yankees have to turn to him this summer, even as a reliever, they will, and I think he’d be okay. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that and Warren can stay on a proper development path. He’s in Triple-A though, and once you’re in Triple-A, you’re a phone call away at all times.

(Warren was an eighth round pick in 2021, remember. Reaching Triple-A as quickly as he did is a tremendous accomplishment. He won’t be Rule 5 Draft eligible until after next season. Warren’s rocketed up the ladder.)

Wells’ home run binge

Seven homers in the last 13 games for C Austin Wells, who’s hitting .274/.348/.661 (163 wRC+) in 15 games with Double-A Somerset since returning from his broken rib. He’s reached base in all 15 games, and including last season, Wells owns a .264/.358/.520 (136 wRC+) line with 19 homers, 11.4% walks, 23.1% strikeouts, and 12.4% swinging strikes in 70 Double-A games.

Wells has not caught back-to-back days yet. He’s on an every other day schedule behind the plate, with either an off-day or a DH day in between. Wells didn’t have a Spring Training and the Yankees are easing him back into things. Back-to-back days at catcher shouldn’t be too far away at this point, and once he checks that box, we can begin talking about a promotion.

The great unknown is how the Yankees feel about Wells defensively. They insist he can catch and say they will continue to develop him as a catcher. Is his glove Triple-A ready? The bat seems to be. Would the Yankees really hold Wells back in Double-A until the glove catches up to the bat, or until it reaches whatever level they deem acceptable? I dunno.

“I really like him,” Luis Severino, who threw to Wells during his Double-A rehab start last week, told Miller. “He has a good bat and he’s really good behind the plate. He blocked some balls. He called some good pitches. I think he’s really good.”

I’m not quite sure what the plan is with Wells. I wish the Yankees would give him a first baseman’s mitt or an outfielder’s glove, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. The bat says that, once he’s ready to catch back-to-back days, Wells should be in Triple-A. It’s time. It seems unlikely the glove is Triple-A ready though. The Yankees will have to make a decision here soon. Either wait for the glove or prioritize the bat.

(Josh Breaux is still out with his Spring Training elbow injury. Rodolfo Durán, José Godoy, and Carlos Narvaez are the three catchers in Triple-A, and with all due respect, none of those dudes will stand in the way when Wells is ready to be promoted. Playing time in Scranton is a non-issue.)

Volpe graduates

Remember Anthony Volpe’s grand slam against the Athletics (video)? That was Volpe’s 131st at-bat of the season, and with that at-bat, he exhausted his rookie eligibility. The rookie limits are 130 at-bats, 50 innings, or 45 days on the active MLB roster. Volpe is no longer prospect-eligible. Instead, he’s the starting shortstop for the New York Yankees. That’s way cooler.

Technically, Oswald Peraza (81 at-bats) and Jhony Brito (40.1 innings) are no longer rookie-eligible either. They are over 45 days on the active big league roster, though they haven’t cleared the playing time thresholds, so they remain prospect-eligible in my book. They’re in that gray area where they’re not rookies but they are prospects.

Anyway, with Volpe graduated, these are my updated top 10 Yankees prospects:

1. OF Jasson Domínguez
2. SS Oswald Peraza
3. OF Spencer Jones
4. RHP Will Warren
5. OF Everson Pereira
6. C Austin Wells
7. SS Trey Sweeney
8. RHP Drew Thorpe
9. RHP Randy Vásquez
10. RHP Luis Gil

Here’s my preseason top 30 prospects. The biggest change is moving Warren up to No. 4. I had him at No. 7 before the season, and the move up has everything to do with Warren looking great this year. It’s not because the other guys dropped. I also flipped Sweeney and Thorpe because Sweeney’s doing well in Double-A. Thorpe hasn’t thrown as many strikes as I expected.

With Volpe graduated, Domínguez now assumes his rightful place atop the Yankees prospect rankings. Despite a recent 15-for-48 (.313) with four homers hot streak, Domínguez is still hitting an unimpressive .197/.360/.393 (111 wRC+) on the season. The strikeout (24.7%) and swinging strike (11.4%) rates aren’t worrisome, and he’s walking a ton (20.0%). The hits haven’t been falling in though. If nothing else, the slash line means a promotion is not imminent.

For now though, Domínguez succeeds Volpe as the top prospect in the organization. And unless Jones goes bonkers the rest of the season (currently hitting .285/.320/.562 and 126 wRC+ with 34.0% strikeouts), I don’t see anyone bumping Domínguez from atop the organizational prospect rankings anytime soon. He’ll be No. 1 for the foreseeable future.

Injury updates

Got a few quick prospect injury updates to pass along, including some via Miller. Here they are:

• RHP Luis Gil (Tommy John surgery): Threw his first bullpen session Friday (video).
• RHP Yoendrys Gómez (shoulder strain): Facing hitters in simulated games in Tampa.
• RHP Matt Sauer (forearm strain): Facing hitters in simulated games in Tampa.

Gil had his elbow rebuild last May 24th. Throwing his first bullpen session this May 19th suggests there was a setback at some point, or the Yankees are taking things very slowly. Setback might not even be the right word. A lot of times guys just have to slow down their rehab a bit. Setback implies a recurrence of the injury and as far as we know that isn’t the case. Either way, Gil is throwing now.

The fact Gil just started throwing bullpens is a pretty good sign we’re not gonna see him this season. He could get into minor league rehab games later this year and probably will, but see him at the MLB level? With limited September call ups? Doubt it. Gil has to go from bullpens to simulated games to a lengthy rehab assignment. It will take time. He was unlikely to be a 2023 factor anyway. That he’s just now throwing his first bullpen pretty much confirms it.

Miscellany

Since starting the season 0-for-29, IF Andrés Chaparro is hitting .298/.374/.588 (135 wRC+) with 10 homers and good strikeout (17.7%) and walk (10.9%) rates in 34 games. As a bat-only corner infielder, Chaparro’s hard-hit (39.0%) and barrel (18.7%) rates aren’t anything special (the Triple-A averages are 38.1% and 17.9%, respectively). He’s still new to Triple-A though, so let’s give him some time. At least Chaparro bounced back nicely from the 0-for-29 … RHP Randy Vásquez has been better the last few times out. He had a really rough start to the season with Triple-A Scranton. The numbers quick:

• First five starts: 7.48 ERA (6.49 FIP), 25.9 K%, 14.8 BB% in 21.2 IP
• Last four starts: 2.14 ERA (2.77 FIP), 25.0 K%, 8.0 BB% in 21 IP

The Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) crew got eyes on Vásquez recently and said his stuff is “simply not elite enough to work as a starter given his command.” They mention he’s trending toward Albert Abreu territory, only without the upper-90s velocity. That ain’t good … IF Caleb Durbin, who came over in the Lucas Luetge trade, was recently promoted to Double-A after hitting .333/.464/.397 (148 wRC+) with more walks (14.4%) than strikeouts (9.3%) in 22 games with High-A Hudson Valley. He recently told David Laurila he’s working on “building on my contact quality,” and minor league hitting coordinator Joe Migliaccio says Durbin’s hard-hit rate is up 14% and he set a new career best max exit velocity this season. We’ll see where this goes. Maybe Durbin can be a better version of Ronald Torreyes … RHP Richard Fitts, my No. 22 prospect, is running a 1.89 HR/9 (17.1% HR/FB) in Double-A at the moment. The strikeout (24.8%) and swinging strike (12.5%) rates aren’t anything special either. For whatever reason Fitts is very home run prone, has been since college, and the dingers issues are bad enough that they might be a fatal flaw … And finally, one last quick thing about Wells. He has stolen two bases since returning from the broken rib and is now a perfect 50-for-50 stealing bases dating back to his freshman year at Arizona, including 34-for-34 in pro ball. Wells' perfect stolen base success rate is my favorite prospect fun fact.

6. 2023 draft prospect: Maryland SS Matt Shaw. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Shaw, 21, is a “perform everywhere he’s played” type who owns a .361/.470/.747 (172 wRC+) line with 23 homers and more walks (15.1%) than strikeouts (13.3%) in 55 games this spring. He was named Cape Cod League MVP last summer after hitting .360/.432/.574 with five homers in 36 games against top competition in the prestigious wood bat league.

I’m not sure I buy it, but Shaw purportedly hit a 507-foot home run earlier this spring (video). I do know that he’s posted exit velocities north of 112 mph this spring, and the numbers I was given earlier this month had him with a 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and an 84% contact rate. Those are both above average rates in Division I. Here are Shaw’s current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 17
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 18
• FanGraphs: No. 23
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 15
• MLB.com: No. 19

FanGraphs says Shaw is a “5-foot-11 stick of dynamite who swings really, really hard” and has a “Dan Uggla-like frame,” so that’s a fun visual. He’s also been described as a “highly-competitive middle infielder,” per Baseball America (subs. req’d). Here’s video and here’s part of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Shaw might be one of the better college hitters in the Draft class. He rarely strikes out and draws walks while making consistently hard contact. He can drive the ball to all fields and he showed off impressive opposite-field power last year for Maryland, with many of his homers going out to right and right-center field. He’s a plus runner who is a legitimate basestealing threat.

Shaw is currently the Terrapins' shortstop, but he’s shown off some defensive versatility, playing second, third and the outfield as a freshman and seeing time on both sides of second on the Cape. A team taking him could certainly send him out as a shortstop, but most feel his arm will push him to second long-term.

A right-handed hitter who can hit homers the other way would fit well in Yankee Stadium. Shaw has plate discipline and power, and possibly the defensive chops to stay on the middle of the field. I’ve been told he’s a low ball hitter whose swing has limitations at the top of the zone. That’s a flaw Shaw will have to correct.

College middle infielders with long track records of performance usually don’t last long on draft day, and I suspect Shaw will be off the board before the Yankees and that No. 26 pick. If not, he does seem to fit their preferred profile as an up-the-middle player with hard-hit ability and a high compete level. Not the sexiest pick, but a legitimate first rounder.

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