May 19th, 2023: Judge, Schmidt, Germán, Severino, Hamilton, Trevino, Trade Deadline, Mailbag

Memorial Day is approaching and this is the time of year things in the baseball world start looking normal. Projected contenders that started slow are heating up (Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, etc.) and projected bottom feeders that started hot are coming back to Earth (Cubs, Pirates, etc.). The Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 games and on the upswing, though at no point this season has it felt like they were firing on cylinders. I’m not sure that’ll happen until they get more guys back from the injured list. Until then, bank as many wins as possible. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Taking three of four in Toronto is mighty fine work, Yankees. Especially with the bullpen so taxed Thursday night. Ryan Weber – Ryan Weber! – played a huge role in the series. What a sport. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

L’affaire de Judge

When you notice Roger Maris Jr. is still following you.

You gotta hand it to the Blue Jays. They gave up a home run to Isiah Kiner-Falefa and it was somehow not the most embarrassing thing they did this week. Aaron Boone called all this stuff about Aaron Judge’s glance and the base coaches not being in the coach’s box “tired … it’s silliness.” Yeah, that is exactly how I would put it. What a ridiculous scandal.

“It’s kinda odd that a hitter would be looking in that direction,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Keegan Matheson after Monday’s game. “He’s obviously looking in that direction for a reason. I think we’ll dive into that a little bit more tonight and tomorrow and make sure that we’re doing everything we can to not make ourselves susceptible to tendencies, locations, pitches, or anything like that.”

After four days of this, we now have a pretty good idea what happened (not that anyone with either team has confirmed it all). Blue Jays reliever Jay Jackson was tipping his pitches Monday. We know this because Jackson told Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Specifically, he positioned his glove in such a way that allowed first base coach Travis Chapman to see his grip.

Chapman then relayed the pitch to the hitter with a hand signal or whatever. And it is “hitter,” not just “Judge," because Jake Bauers also took a similar glance during his at-bat (here’s the video, though it’s grainy). Bauers is a lefty, so Chapman relayed the pitch to third base coach Luis Rojas, who relayed it to Bauers. This apparently happened for Jackson’s entire inning.

Judge gave a somewhat plausible explanation for his glance – “I was trying to see who was chirping in the dugout. It’s 6-0. Boonie got tossed, let’s just go to work,” he told Greg Joyce – but yeah, that’s not what happened. The Yankees had Jackson’s pitches and Judge was looking at Chapman to get it. Jackson threw Judge six straight sliders, the last of which was a hanger he hit 462 feet.

If the Yankees hacked Toronto’s PitchCom and stole signs that way, MLB should throw the book at them. That’s not what happened though. Jackson was not careful enough, the Yankees picked up on it, and took advantage. This is completely legal between-the-lines gamesmanship. Don’t like it? Don’t tip your pitches. This is a Blue Jays problem, not a Yankees problem.

The Blue Jays knew the Yankees had Jackson’s pitches and decided to voice it by complaining about Chapman and Rojas not being in the coach’s boxes, which they weren’t. Here’s where they were stationed before Jackson’s home run pitch to Judge:

Chapman is where he is because it gave him the best view of Jackson’s glove. He is pretty close to the foul line there. Usually the base coaches are a little further back than that, so Chapman wasn’t exactly being subtle. Rojas is where he is because Judge hits the ball a million miles an hour and he doesn’t want to take a pulled foul line drive to the chest.

The Blue Jays weren’t happy about where Chapman and Rojas were stationed and I get that, but complaining about this is so silly. The base coaches are never in the coach’s box. They move around throughout the game to get the best vantage point. Here’s where Toronto’s base coaches were for the first pitch of the bottom of the first inning, long before all this stuff with Judge and Jackson went down:

“It’s easy to look at a runner at second when you’re hitting. It’s tough to look into the dugout. It’s probably a little bit easier to look at a coach,” Schneider told Matheson. “I think that there’s boxes on the field for a reason. I think when it’s a glaring 30 feet where you’re not in that spot, you kind of put two and two together a little bit.”

This all got dumber Tuesday when the Blue Jays dugout, specifically pitching coach Pete Walker, yelled at Rojas for not being in the coach’s box. During the exchange Schneider called Yankees assistant hitting coach Brad Wilkerson “fat boy,” which, like, come on dude. I really shouldn't talk, but look in the mirror my guy. Anyway, Wilkerson laughed it off.

(Because these are baseball players, the players and coaches wore Wilkerson out about the fat boy remark. “I made them know that there were a couple guys in (the same area as me). It wasn’t just me. So I let them know about it too,” Wilkerson told Joyce. It’s all in good fun.)

Anyway, an inning after Rojas got into it with the Toronto dugout, Boone yelled at Blue Jays third base coach Luis Rivera because he wasn’t in the coach’s box. At that point crew chief James Hoye had enough. He told both managers to knock it off and said he’ll handle the base coaches from that point on. That put an end to that, thankfully.

In situations like this, it’s easy to think the team will throw at the player to “send a message” or whatever, but that was never gonna happen. MLB monitored the series after everything blew up Monday, so the discipline would have been harsh, plus throwing at Judge would not go unanswered. There is no chance – zero – the Yankees would let that slide. Vlad Guerrero Jr. would have worn one the next time he came to the plate, and things could really spiral out of control from there. Cooler heads prevailed.

Blue Jays fans booed Judge the rest of the series, but what else is new. I’m not yet ready to say this is all in the past now, though it’s no longer the hot topic. The cool thing is Judge turned this into a new hit celebration. He covered his eyes while crossing the plate after Tuesday’s game-winning homer, he did again after his single Wednesday, and he did it again after his home run Thursday. It’s a thing now.

I’m not sure if this new covered eyes celebration is a Judge exclusive or if the entire team will get in on it thumbs down style, but I approve either way. The Blue Jays are small-time, always and forever, and Schneider & Co. really showed their asses this week. Upset the other team picked up on your pitcher tipping? That’s fine, but they went about this about as loser-y as possible.

“We’re here to play baseball,” Judge told Joyce. “We’re focused on one thing and that’s between the lines and what we gotta do to win those nine innings and win the game every single night. When you got all 26 guys, all nine guys in the lineup, focused on that one thing, any other distraction or noise outside of that doesn’t bother us.”

A successful opener

The Yankees used an opener for the first time since July 7th, 2021* on Monday. And it could not have worked better. Jimmy Cordero retired George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vlad Jr. on only nine pitches in the first inning, so went back out for the second and got through that inning as well. Jhony Brito came in and took the ball into the eighth inning. Perfect.

“He gave us just what we needed,” Boone told Joyce after the game, referring to Brito’s 5.1 innings. Career high 5.1 innings, I should note. It wasn’t until the eighth inning that Brito ran into trouble, and that was only because Gleyber Torres botched a double play ball and the Blue Jays strung together some weak contact hits. The Yankees took a 7-0 lead into that eighth inning. I have no problem whatsoever with trying to squeeze another inning out of Brito with a 7-0 lead.

Brito faced 21 batters Monday, which is twice through the lineup plus three batters. Thanks to Cordero’s work as the opener, Brito faced the 7-8-9 hitters three times and the 1-2-3 hitters two times. The Yankees limited his exposure to Springer-Bichette-Guerrero and it contributed to the win. It worked beautifully. I wish they’d given Brito an opener sooner, but better later than never.

Props to Cordero too. That was his first start at any level since he was in rookie ball in 2013 and he had no trouble adjusting. Came in and dotted the bottom of the zone with his sinker. “It was a good experience for me, the first time as an opener. I 100% would do it again,” Cordero told Joyce. Good to know, Jimmy. We just might see him do it again. I’m very pleased with the way this all worked out. Cordero did his part and made life easier on Brito.

* The Yankees had a few bullpen games after that date, but July 7th was the last time they went with a true opener (Nick Nelson) and a bulk innings guy (Luis Cessa for 3.1 innings).

Schmidt with two strikes

Clarke Schmidt allowed three runs to the Rays through four innings Sunday but I didn’t think he pitched that poorly. There was some shaky defense behind him and a few ground balls that got through. Sometimes that stuff happens. The Rays got to Schmidt in the fifth inning though. He couldn’t put hitters away in a close game, then Albert Abreu happened.

“I felt like I was making good pitches and obviously something could’ve kicked my way a little bit at the end right there,” Schmidt told Ethan Sears about not getting the call on the borderline 3-2 pitch to Josh Lowe (video). “Just continuing to make pitches throughout and continuing to compete. We thought we were close to getting out of that one. Obviously it’s a tough one to end on that note.”

There was one constant throughout Sunday’s game and really all season: Schmidt had trouble putting guys away with strikes. He faced 23 batters Sunday and went to a two-strike count on 13 of them. Those 13 batters went 1-for-9 with five strikeouts, two walks, two sac flies, and an RBI groundout. The 1-for-9 is good! But the Rays were able to make three productive run-scoring outs, and Schmidt had more balls in play (five) than whiffs (four) with two strikes. Eh.

Schmidt’s season numbers with two strikes aren’t horrible. They’re about league average:

• Schmidt with two strikes: .179/.245/.279 with 45.3 K% and 24.3% fouls
• MLB average with two strikes: .170/.247/.267 with 42.4% and 22.7% fouls

Average isn’t bad, especially not for a relatively young pitcher who is in a big league rotation for the first time. There have just been times when Schmidt can’t find that putaway pitch in a big spot, and it burns him. He gave up a sac fly and an RBI groundout to Brandon Lowe (he of the 28.4% strikeout rate) after getting ahead in the count 0-2 and it’s just like, come on. Bury him.

It’s especially frustrating because Schmidt isn’t lacking stuff. His curveball and slider each average over 2,900 rpm and his mid-90s sinker has plenty of run. Schmidt’s command is not good though and everything plays down. I mean, look at his slider (sorry, sweeper) locations:

Can you maybe not throw it over the heart of the plate? Good grief. Schmidt doesn’t lack talent and he certainly doesn’t lack confidence, but the execution isn’t always there. There are times he looks capital-N Nasty, like the second inning Sunday (video), and others where it’s like what is this guy doing? A few more well-executed two-strike pitches would go a long way for a pitcher with quality stuff but a 6.30 ERA (4.70 FIP).

“Results-wise, obviously it could be a little bit better,” Schmidt told Sears. “But as far as being able to go out there and continuing to improve, show some good outings out there (and provide) quality, I think it’s just continuing to refine the things we need to refine and work on. But overall, we’re not far off where we want to be.”

On working the count

Wednesday night Chris Bassitt became the 12th starter to complete seven innings against the Yankees this season. It happened 18 times all last year and only 12 times the year before that. Wearing down the starter and getting to the bullpen doesn’t work as well as it did back in the day because even middle relievers have nasty stuff now, but still. Opposing starters pitch deep into games with far too much regularity against the Yankees.

Here’s where the Yankees have ranked in pitches seen per plate appearance the last few years (the MLB average has hovered around 3.90 P/PA the last 10-15 years):

• 2019: 4.06 (2nd in MLB)
• 2020: 4.08 (4th)
• 2021: 4.10 (1st)
• 2022: 3.97 (4th)
• 2023: 3.84 (25th)

Judge, Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Rizzo are right where they always are in terms of P/PA. This isn’t on them. It’s on the rest of the lineup. The guys who are filling in as injury replacements or occupying lineup spots where the Yankees did not prioritize offense. That’s just about half the lineup these days, so yeah, it hurts.

I don’t have anything more to add here. I just wanted to note that if it seems like the Yankees have a lot of quick at-bats and quick innings on offense, your eyes do not deceive you. They are near the bottom of the league in pitches seen per plate appearance. The Yankees shouldn’t take pitches just to take pitches, but surely there’s room to be a little more patient here, right?

Miscellany

Major shoutout to Weber, Abreu, and Ron Marinaccio. Especially Weber for escaping that bases loaded, no out jam with just the one run allowed in the seventh inning. The bullpen was extremely short Thursday and they made that small lead stand up. “We called that Nestor and the Funky Bunch tonight,” Boone told Joyce after the game … Hoooooly crap Anthony Volpe. He turned around 99 mph (98.6 mph, to be exact) on the inner half for his first career home run outside Yankee Stadium (video) on Thursday. Everything about that was impressive. The bat speed, the strength, keeping it fair, everything … The infield defense was a nightmare this week. Every single infielder made at least one error in Toronto (Whit Merrifield was given a hit on this, but come on) as did several pitchers, plus there were several double plays that were not turned for one reason or another. Torres in particular has had difficulty getting the ball out of his glove (among other things) the last few games. This goes back before the Blue Jays series too, so I wouldn’t blame the turf. The Yankees have been way too sloppy lately. They have to clean this up … Harrison Bader against lefties: 7-for-13 (.539) with two triples and three homers. Bader against righties: 8-for-41 (.195) with no extra-base hits. Only a 10.5% strikeout rate this season though. We’re still trying to figure out what exactly Bader is at the plate because we have such little history with him, and because his career offensive performance is all over the map. Right now, the answer is a guy on the light side of the platoon, though obviously he belongs in the lineup everyday because he’s a game-changing defender. Truly spectacular in center. Hopefully Bader picks it up against righties in the coming weeks … And finally, Judge is now the Yankees’ all-time home run leader against the Blue Jays. He broke a tie with Jorge Posada on Thursday. Here’s the leaderboard:

1. Aaron Judge: 32 HR in 102 G
2. Jorge Posada: 31 HR in 186 G
3. Alex Rodriguez: 28 HR in 166 G
4. Brett Gardner: 25 HR in 196 G
5. Bernie Williams: 25 HR in 197 G

The leaderboard skews recent because of the unbalanced schedule in the Wild Card era and the prevalence of dingers in the modern game, plus the fact Blue Jays haven’t been around that long (since 1977). Still, I’m surprised Judge is atop it considering he’s still relatively early in his career. I mean, look at those games played totals. No wonder they boo him at Rogers Centre. (The Yankees’ home run leaders against the other AL East teams: Babe Ruth against the Red Sox by a lot, Lou Gehrig and Ruth against the Orioles by a lot, and A-Rod against the Rays by a lot. Those leaderboards aren’t as interesting as the Blue Jays leaderboard, but there are the links if you’re interested.)

2. Germán suspended and Severino returns (soon). The most reliable thing about Domingo Germán is his unreliability. He is nothing if not inconsistent or unavailable. Germán is two games into his 10-game foreign substance suspension. He got busted Tuesday by the same umpire crew that told him to wash his hands against the Twins on April 15th.

"I’ve got to apologize to my teammates and my team,” Germán, who has experience apologizing to his teammates, told Bryan Hoch after the game. “I'm putting them in a tough position right now. Understanding how much the bullpen has been used and what my plan was for tonight to pitch, and putting them in a tough situation where I'm not pitching out there anymore."

Crew chief James Hoye told Hoch Germán's hand was the "stickiest I've ever felt," and it was "definitely not rosin." Following the Twins game on April 15th, Hoye said Germán’s sticky hand was “not an ejectable offense because we didn’t feel it rose to the foreign substance standard where it affected his pitching.” So, obviously, things were different this time.

"They felt it was too sticky and they ran him," an obviously pissed Aaron Boone said after the game (video). "... And obviously it raised to a level – and of course he's been in the crosshairs a bit – but it was raised to a level that they didn't feel was good. And ultimately, it's Domingo's responsibility (to make sure) we're in a better position there."

It is ultimately Germán’s responsibility, but the manager and coaches are culpable too. They knew Germán was on the watch list and knew it was the same umpire crew that got on him last month. Don’t you have to stay on top of him to make sure everything is above board that night? Maybe they did and Germán did it anyway. I dunno.

Cameras caught Germán with a brown substance on his pants and he claimed it was chewing tobacco, and that seems possible? Here’s the video. Germán’s pants were clean, he then appeared to take something out of his mouth and throw it to the dugout floor, then he put his hand back on his pants, then the brown spot appeared. Well, whatever. Doesn’t matter now.

Germán went nine up, nine down on 37 pitches before the ejection. His spin rates were right in line with his season averages …

… which does not mean he didn’t cheat. It only means he cheated no more and no less than he has throughout the season. But again, it doesn’t matter now. Germán got caught and he did not appeal the suspension, saying “I learned that the appeal decision is made by MLB, not through a neutral arbitration process – so I do not believe I have a chance to win an appeal.”

(Max Scherzer gave the same reason when he declined to appeal his 10-game sticky stuff suspension last month. I wonder if this is/will be the MLBPA’s standard excuse so they can push for a neutral arbitrator in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.)

Luis Severino threw 3.1 innings and 58 pitches in his second rehab start Tuesday night and he will be activated to start in Germán’s spot Sunday, the Yankees announced. It seemed like they were gearing up to activate Severino that day anyway, but the Germán thing made it a necessity. There’s no other (good) option to make that start, so Severino will be back this weekend.

“I think he’s ready to go,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Severino. “... He’s a great pitcher. Looking forward to him getting into and a part of this rotation. I know what kind of impact he can have for us.”

The thing is, the Yankees have to play shorthanded during Germán’s suspension. They have to play with a 25-man roster for the 10 games, and as best I can tell, the 13-pitcher limit becomes a 12-pitcher limit during the suspension. Right now, the Yankees are carrying four starters and eight relievers. When Severino returns, they will have to go with five starters and seven relievers.

(Deivi García and Greg Weissert are still in their 15-day waiting periods. The only healthy call-up-able 40-man roster pitchers in the minors are Matt Krook and Randy Vásquez. Shuttle options will be limited during Germán’s suspension, unless the Yankees start cycling through non-40-man guys. It could come to that.)

The Yankees have an off-day Monday, exactly halfway through Germán’s 10-game suspension, which is good for the bullpen (a guaranteed day of rest) but kinda unfortunate for the rotation. The Yankees need five starters coming out of the off-day before Germán returns. They can’t get away with carrying four starters and using Germán as the fifth when his suspension ends. If they send Jhony Brito down after Saturday’s game to make room for Severino, they’ll need someone else to start in Brito’s place a few days later. It’s doable. It’s just another layer of headache.

Nick Ramirez was called up to replace the injured Ian Hamilton earlier this week and it’s likely the Yankees will just option Ramirez out to make room for Severino, and roll with seven relievers for a few days. I guess they could designate Albert Abreu or Ryan Weber for assignment, but I think it’s unlikely they part with pitching depth. The rotation and sequence of moves could look like this:

• Friday at Reds: Clarke Schmidt
• Saturday at Reds: Jhony Brito, possibly with an opener
• Sunday at Reds: Luis Severino (Nick Ramirez sent down to clear a roster spot)
• Monday: off-day
• Tuesday vs. Orioles: Gerrit Cole
• Wednesday vs. Orioles: Nestor Cortes
• Thursday vs. Orioles: Clarke Schmidt
• Friday vs. Padres: Jhony Brito, possibly with an opener
• Saturday vs. Padres Luis Severino (Brito sent down for an eighth reliever)
• Sunday vs. Padres: Domingo Germán (first game eligible to return)

The Yankees could start Brito (or pair him with an opener) on normal rest Thursday, then send him down after the game. That buys them an extra game with an eighth reliever. That’s probably the way to go. Get the eighth reliever sooner and also give Schmidt an extra day as the innings mount. Then again, do you want Brito to face the O’s? Not really, but I don't Schmidt facing the O's either, so what can you do.

Laying it out like this, you can see the Yankees will have to go with a seven-man bullpen for only five games (or four games if they start Brito on Thursday instead of Friday). And one of those five games is before an off-day and another is after an off-day, softening the blow. It’s not that bad. It is a bit inconvenient though, and playing shorthanded inherently puts you at the disadvantage.

The good news is Severino will return this weekend. I can’t wait. I’ve missed him. The bad news is Germán got himself suspended and the Yankees will be shorthanded for the next few games. Getting busted by literally the same umpire crew that warned you last month is “Michael Pineda has pine tar on his neck” levels of stupid. It’s always something with Domingo.

“At the end of the day, he went over the line that the umpires deemed, and now we’ve got to live with the consequences of that,” Boone told Hoch. “... No one player needs to carry this load. We'll share it all, and we'll do it together."

3. Hamilton and Trevino injured. Ian Hamilton, at worst a pleasant surprise and at best an emerging force, landed on the injured list with a right groin strain earlier this week. He’s expected to miss four weeks. Hamilton left Tuesday’s game with the injury and Aaron Boone said he’s been dealing with it for a bit. Unbeknownst to us, Hamilton was unavailable for a few days recently. Now he’ll be down a month.

“There was a couple days where we didn’t use him on the homestand, where he had something very minor. His last two outings, he’s been fine with it, but he felt it a little bit on the strikeout. So we’ve got to get it checked out,” Boone said (video). The Yankees have the makings of a very good bullpen on the injured list right now:

• Closer: RHP Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow)
• Setup: RHP Scott Effross (elbow) and RHP Tommy Kahnle (biceps)
• Middle: RHP Ian Hamilton (hamstring) and RHP Lou Trivino (elbow)
• Long: RHP Luis Gil (elbow)

Find a lefty and one more middle innings guy and you can win games with that bullpen. Anyway, Hamilton was working his way into the Circle of Trust™ and why not? He’s been outstanding: 1.23 ERA (1.80 FIP) with 34.1% strikeouts and 15.9% swinging strikes. Few too many walks (10.2%), otherwise Hamilton has missed bats and limited hard contact. He’s been some find.

No Hamilton means the Circle of Trust™ is down to Clay Holmes, Mike King, and Wandy Peralta. Jimmy Cordero will start seeing more high leverage work out of necessity. Ryan Weber did a hell of a job in Toronto, though I doubt the Yankees will use Webdog (or Albert Abreu) in the late innings of close games unless it’s an absolute emergency (like Thursday).

Kahnle started his rehab assignment Thursday (one strikeout and 12 pitches in a 1-2-3 inning with Low-A Tampa) and he’ll make at least three more rehab appearances before rejoining the Yankees. He’s not eligible to be activated until May 29th anyway, so there’s no sense in rushing anything. Kahnle’s the next wave of help though. High leverage options will be short until he returns.

(I’ve seen some folks blaming Domingo Germán for Hamilton’s injury and I don’t think that’s fair. Injuries happen and the groin has apparently been bugging him a while. Mike King broke his elbow last season when he was pitching in a game he entered only because Aroldis Chapman melted down. I didn’t blame Chapman for King’s injury and I don’t blame Germán getting ejected for Hamilton’s injury. Sometimes it just happens.)

As for Jose Trevino, he was placed on the injured list with a left hamstring strain Thursday. He tweaked something getting out of the box Wednesday night and it sounds like it’s minor, but he may have an MRI in the coming days. Trevino hasn’t hit much (65 wRC+), though the pitchers love throwing to him. He’s a major loss on the defensive side of the ball.

“We want it to be something we knock out here,” Boone said about Trevino’s injury (video). “... He’s kinda beat up outside of that as well, so we're hoping this time down – obviously get the hamstring healed – but hopefully this gives his whole body a little break too. And hopefully something that serves him and us well over the long haul.”

Ben Rortvedt, who does exist, was called up to replace Trevino. He returned from his aneurysm a few weeks ago and hit .324/.405/.622 (155 wRC+) with three homers and a 14.3% barrel rate in 10 games with Triple-A Scranton. The numbers are nice, though Rortvedt has never hit much in his career (97 wRC+ in the minors). He’s another glove-first (glove-only?) guy.

Whenever Rortvedt gets into a game, it will be his Yankees debut. This is not his first time on the Yankees’ MLB roster though. Rortvedt got called up for three days last September when Trevino was on the paternity list, though he did not get into a game. He has some big league time with the Twins, getting into 39 games with the club in 2021 (41 wRC+).

"This has been a long time coming," Rortvedt told Bryan Hoch about finally joining the Yankees. "I've been through a lot. I'm pretty excited. I worked extremely hard to get back to this point, and to be back feeling healthy again."

I assume Kyle Higashioka will get the majority of the playing time behind the plate* while Trevino is sidelined. I don’t expect much from Rortvedt but I really hope he’s given a look. Higashioka has gotten exposed every single time he’s been thrust into the starting job, and at age 33, we know what he is. That’s a dingers-and-defense backup catcher. No more, no less.

* Because of injuries, Rortvedt did not catch at all last spring or this spring. He has very little experience with this pitching staff, and no experience with most of it.

Rortvedt is only 25, he’s a lefty hitter, and there’s a chance he’s the backup catcher of the future. I believe he’ll qualify for a fourth minor league option next season because of last year’s injuries, which means his option years will walk him right to Higashioka’s free agency. Rortvedt could neatly replace Higashioka the way Higashioka neatly replaced Austin Romine!

That’s another matter for another day though. I just want to see what Rortvedt can offer rather than sit through what I already know Higashioka offers. The Yankees are tentatively scheduled to face 10 righty starters in the next 10 games. It’s a good opportunity to get Rortvedt in there with a few favorable matchups and (gasp!) maybe even start him back-to-back games at some point.

The Yankees are now down their starting catcher, starting third baseman, primary DH, backup shortstop, Nos. 2 and 3 and 5 starters, and most of a bullpen. And their No. 6 starter just got suspended too, so yeah, going great. The Yankees are stretched about as thin as can be at the moment. Get well soon, Ian and Jose.

4. Latest deadline and early hot stove rumblings. The old saying is you spend the first third of the season evaluating your team, the middle third making changes, and the final third riding out those changes. The Yankees will play their 54th game next Saturday, so that middle third is rapidly approaching. Here are a few trade deadline and super early hot stove nuggets.

“No chance” the Yankees sell at the deadline

From the no duh department: Buster Olney (subs. req’d) says someone with the Yankees told him there is no chance the team pulls a 2016 and sells at the deadline. “There's no chance of that happening,” Olney’s source said. To be fair, I sat on this a bit, and Olney posted this on May 11th. That was the first day of the four-game Rays series at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees are 5-3 since that report and have climbed from last place in the AL East to tied for third. Their division odds still aren’t great (only 15.0% per FanGraphs), though their postseason odds are strong at 73.5%, and trending back upward:

When the Yankees sold at the 2016 deadline, it was the first time they truly sold and traded big leaguers for prospects in three decades. That kinda thing rarely happens around here and it happened in 2016 because the team was bad, and also because they lacked an established core. The 2016 Yankees did not have in-their-prime Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge.

The Yankees would have to crash so hard to sell at the deadline that it’s basically impossible. They would have to be well out of the postseason race – a postseason race with three Wild Card spots! – to even consider it. The 2016 Yankees were 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with four teams ahead of them on the morning of the trade deadline. The 2023 Yankees would have to go something like 21-40 between now and the deadline to be that far out. It’s just not happening.

Selling at the deadline is the kinda thing fans throw out there after a frustrating loss or four, but it is so very unlikely, and it should be. Cole and Judge are in their primes, the supporting cast is strong, and it’s easier to get into the postseason than ever. The Yankees have shown us they will sell if necessary, but this is not one of those years. They’ll add pieces at the deadline again (and hopefully do a better job of it than last deadline).

Severino wants to remain with Yankees

Thanks in part to Domingo Germán’s sticky stuff suspension, Luis Severino will rejoin the Yankees and make his 2023 debut this weekend. He threw 3.1 innings and 58 pitches in his second rehab start Tuesday night. That lines him up perfectly to take Germán’s rotation spot and start the series finale in Cincinnati on Sunday (likely on a 75-ish pitch limit).

Barring a surprise trade at the deadline, Severino will be a Yankee the rest of this season. What about next season? That is unclear, but he wants to remain a Yankee the rest of his career even though he's made it known he doesn’t always agree with how the team handles his rehab work (i.e. conservatively). Here’s what Severino told Gary Phillips last week:

“This is the only team that I know,” Severino, an impending free agent, told the Daily News. “I would love to be here the rest of my life.”

…

“I love the Yankees,” he said. “Just been having some miscommunication with some training staff and the people that make the decisions about where to start with all my pitches and all that.”

…

“This is a business. At the end, we don’t know what’s gonna happen,” Severino said. “Hopefully, I can be here for the rest of my life.”

I promise you Severino is not the only player in the league who objects to being babied during his rehab work. He’s just one of the few who is unafraid to say so publicly. When the time comes, this will have no bearing on his next contract. Severino will re-sign with the Yankees if they offer the right number and the Yankees will re-sign Severino if he takes the right number. That’s it.

It may seem like Severino is destined for a short-term “prove yourself” contract, but a lot can and will change between now and free agency. Nate Eovaldi came back from his second Tommy John surgery in May 2018 and had a pretty middling track record. Five months and one great October later, he got four years at $17M a pop. Severino could easily pitch his way to 3-4 years.

Do the Yankees have the appetite for another big money starter with Cole and Carlos Rodón on the books long-term? I lean no, though it will depend how Severino performs the rest of the way, the rotation outlook heading into the offseason, and the available alternatives. The upcoming free agent class stinks. That will work to Severino’s advantage on the market.

Thanks largely to Josh Donaldson, the Yankees have more than $60M coming off the books after the season. They will have to use that money to address, among other things, the two non-Judge outfield spots and the back of the rotation, plus the bullpen and general depth. I don’t expect Severino to be back in 2024. I don’t think letting him walk is anywhere near a certainty though.

Early thoughts on the trade deadline

Pretty soon the trade deadline rumblings will begin and we’ll shift our attention to who’s available, who the Yankees should get, and things like that. Right now, on May 19th, I’d line up the Yankees’ deadline needs like so:

1. Left fielder, preferably a lefty bat who can hit in the middle of the order
2. Starting pitcher, the quality of which depends on Rodón’s and Severino’s health
3. Bullpen arm, specifically a bona fide high leverage type
4. A second bullpen arm for depth, possibly a swingman who could make spot starts
5. A bench bat, someone to fill a role similar to Matt Carpenter

We’ll look at the possible outfield targets in the coming weeks, though you know most of the names already: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, maybe Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Hunter Renfroe, etc. A left fielder with control beyond 2023 would be ideal. Someone like Anthony Santander or LaMonte Wade Jr. Not sure how realistic that is though.

The starting pitching market is going to be nuts. Every single contender will be in the market for a starter. Every single one. Usually there’s one or two contenders each deadline who are set in the rotation. Not this year though. The Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Rays, Yankees … they all need a starter or two due to injuries and/or underperformance.

With the caveat that more names will emerge in the coming weeks, it appears the best available starters will be Alex Cobb, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Alex Wood. The Guardians would make a killing if they put Shane Bieber out there, though I’m not sure they will. Rodriguez has been fantastic this year, but his looming opt out complicates things.

There will be a lot of teams – a lot of motivated contenders – looking for a starter at the deadline and very few difference-making starters available. Cobb is appealing thanks to his 62.4% ground ball rate and affordable $10M club option for 2024, but in a perfect world he is what, your No. 3 starter in the postseason? Maybe that’s all the Yankees need, a No. 3 type starter.

Already 599 different pitchers have appeared in a game this year. Last year that number was 871 for the entire season. Injuries are up and Daniel Epstein (subs. req’d) found the pitch clock may be to blame because slow workers are getting hurt more often, though many of the injuries happened in Spring Training. The regular season injury rate is normal, so pitchers seem to be adjusting.

Point is, teams are running through a ton of arms this season and the war of attrition will be even greater. Every team is going to want pitching at the deadline, even moreso than usual, and with few top tier arms likely to be available, you may have to pay inflated prices for second tier pitchers. It’s not a good deadline to need pitching. Getting Rodón and Severino healthy and keeping them on the field the rest of the year would be the best possible thing for the Yankees.

“Ultimately, myself and our staff are constantly looking to see what’s available,” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch earlier this month. “The time of year is tough – April, May, June. If you asked me that question in the wintertime or even March, what’s your biggest fear in the early portion of the season? All general managers would say you don’t want to get wrecked with injuries early.”

5. 2023 draft prospect: Pennsylvania HS SS Kevin McGonigle. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. I will highlight several draft prospects between now and then. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

McGonigle, 19 in August, is a left-handed hitting bat-and-instincts player. He’s a Philadelphia kid who idolized Chase Utley growing up, and models his game after him. “I look after Chase Utley a lot, his swing and his approach. I’m a Philly guy, so I love watching him,” he told Jonathan Mayo last summer. If you care about high school stats, McGonigle is hitting .463/.642/.852 this spring.

The usual knock on kids in the Northeast is they don’t face great high school competition, though McGonigle stood out on the showcase circuit and with Team USA last summer. He posted a 96 mph exit velocity at the Perfect Game Showcase, putting him in the 99th percentile of an event with an 80 mph class average. Here are McGonigle’s current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 18
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 16
• FanGraphs: No. 14
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 19
• MLB.com: No. 26

McGonigle is listed at 5-foot-11 and 185 lbs., and being undersized is no longer a huge negative. Sub-6-footers Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and José Ramírez are among the best players in the game, and Mariners SS Cole Young (No. 21 in 2022) and Anthony Volpe were recent first round picks. Here’s video and here is MLB.com’s free scouting report on McGonigle:

(McGonigle) might be one of the best pure hitters in the class, at least in terms of bat-to-ball skills. He’s not afraid to be aggressive and attack fastballs early in counts, trusting his innate knack for finding the barrel and his overall approach to not chase pitches out of the zone. If there’s any question about his offensive profile, it’s about his future power, but he showed plenty of extra-base, and over-the-fence, pop to all fields against excellent competition over the summer.

An average to fringy runner, McGonigle’s high baseball IQ and aggressive nature help his baserunning and his defense. His hands work well and he has an average arm, but many see the Auburn recruit needing to move to second eventually because of his range, just like his baseball role model did. That might put more pressure on his bat, but most evaluators think he’s more than ready to answer that challenge.

FanGraphs says McGonigle is “perhaps more likely to play some kind of big league role than any other high school player in the 2023 class” and “his on-field acumen and fundamentals also carry a ton of weight.” Baseball America (subs. req’d) adds he’s viewed similarly to Volpe as a player with good skills who gets the most out of everything thanks to his instincts.

Although he’s ranked mostly in the No. 14-19 range among draft prospects, McGonigle could slip a bit because he’s committed to Auburn and because this class is very deep in college players. College players are increasingly popular because they’re easier to project with analytical models, and more and more teams are model-driven. Top high schoolers can fall through the cracks.

The Yankees selected a college hitter with their last three first round picks and they did not take a single high school player in last year’s draft. I don’t think they’re against high schoolers though. It just has to be the right high schooler. Volpe was the right high schooler for them. McGonigle has similar skills, and other teams prioritizing college players could land him in the Yankees’ lap.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Gabriel asks: Am I crazy to think Schmidt should be the first one demoted to AAA to figure out how to get lefties out? The Yankees seem to love German and Brito can be effective to both sides batters if he’s pitching well. The Rays just load up their line up with Lefties and cripple Schmidt.

Definitely not crazy. Jhony Brito allowed seven earned runs in two-thirds of an inning a few weeks ago and he still has a lower ERA than Clarke Schmidt (5.20 vs. 6.30). Ignore that disaster start against the Twins, and Brito’s average game is 4.5 innings and 2.1 runs allowed. It's only fair we take away Schmidt’s worst start too (seven runs in 4.2 innings against the Rays), and when you do that, his average game is 4.4 innings and 3.7 runs allowed. So yeah, Brito’s been better.

The case for keeping Schmidt over Brito is that while Brito’s numbers against righties (.381 wOBA) aren’t as bad as Schmidt’s numbers against lefties (.464 wOBA), they are bad, and there are a lot more righty hitters out there. Also, the underlying numbers are advantage Schmidt, or the differences are so small they’re negligible:

• Strikeout rate: 25.7% Schmidt vs. 15.1% Brito
• Walk rate: 7.5% vs. 8.8%
• Ground ball rate: 45.1% vs. 47.0%
• Barrel rate: 12.2% vs. 11.8%
• FIP: 4.70 vs 5.45
• xERA: 5.49 vs. 5.97
• DRA: 4.14 vs. 5.30

Their age and where they are developmentally matters too. Schmidt is already 27 and he’s now spent parts of four seasons in Triple-A and MLB. Would going back to Triple-A help him much at this point, or is this a “he needs to face big leaguers to get better” situation? I tend to think that’s the case. Schmidt needs to be in MLB to take a step forward (if there is a step forward to be taken).

Brito, on the other hand, is two years younger than Schmidt and he reached Triple-A for the first time last June. Triple-A is much more developmentally appropriate for him. They’ve both been bad, but sending Brito to Triple-A could yield a better pitcher in the future. Keep Brito and send Schmidt down and you may not improve the future outlook of either pitcher.

I think the fact we’ve seen Schmidt for a few years now factors into this a bit too. This is his fourth season with big league time and we’ve seen him fail plenty. Fatigue is setting in. Brito is the new hotness and we want the shiny new toy. Eventually we’ll get sick of him and want to see the next young pitcher. It is the circle of baseball life.

Ultimately, this is nitpicking. Brito and Schmidt have both been bad and ideally neither would be in the rotation, and there’s a good case for sending both down. I don’t have a preference, honestly. My preference is Carlos Rodón getting healthy and coming back soon. Sending Schmidt down rather than Brito is perfectly reasonable. In the end, they’re both liabilities.

Emiliano asks: I was wondering, what Judge needs to do this season to have the best back to back seasons of all time?

The quick and easy answer is repeat 2022. That would do the trick. By WAR, Babe Ruth had the best back-to-back seasons of all-time: +11.9 WAR in 1920 and +12.9 WAR in 1921. In our lifetimes, Barry Bonds had the best back-to-back seasons: +11.9 WAR in 2001 and +11.7 WAR in 2002. Mike Trout’s best back-to-back years are 2015 (+9.6 WAR) and 2016 (+10.5 WAR).

Judge was a +10.6 WAR player last season, so to top Ruth, he’d need at least +14.2 WAR this year, and that ain’t happening. To beat Bonds, Judge would need a +13.0 WAR season. That also isn’t happening. To beat Trout, it would be a +9.5 WAR season. That’s doable. I mean, it would be very difficult, there have been only 16 +9.5 WAR seasons by players other than Bonds this century, but it isn't a completely insane number.

Another +10 WAR season would definitely put Judge in the conversation. Only eight position players (I didn’t bother to check pitchers) have had back-to-back +10 WAR seasons in history, and they’re basically the eight greatest players to ever live:

• Barry Bonds: 2001-02
• Carl Yastrzemski: 1967-68
• Willie Mays: 1962-65
• Mickey Mantle: 1956-57
• Ted Williams: 1941-42
• Rogers Hornsby: 1924-25
• Babe Ruth: 1920-21, 1923-24, 1926-28, 1930-31
• Ty Cobb: 1910-11

It’s a cop out, but the answer is Judge needs to repeat his 2022 in 2023 to enter the “best back-to-back seasons ever” conversation. That’s really it. Hit something like .311/.425/.686 (207 wRC+) with 62-ish home runs again while spending a bunch of time in center field. It’s a boring answer, but that’s the answer. Judge has to do it again. I don't think a season like 2017 would be good enough.

Brian asks: The Reds are atrocious. Is it realistic that NY could pry someone like TJ Friedl from them? He is a lefty, plays LF, and is at least average or slightly above average at the plate (even if the defense is not good). Doesn't strike out a ton. There has to be someone the Yankees can easily give up for him. He's young-ish but not enough where it would seem like Cincy would be building a team around him (do they even do that anymore?)

Alas, we will not get to see Friedl this weekend in Cincinnati. An oblique issue sent him to the injured list earlier this week. I looked at Friedl as a possible outfield target over the winter. Here’s what I wrote at the time:

If nothing else, Friedl has an interesting backstory. He went undrafted in 2016 because teams didn’t realize he was draft-eligible (there was confusion about his draft status as a redshirt sophomore at Nevada), so he became the rare coveted undrafted free agent. The Reds won the bidding war and paid him a $735,000 bonus, which is third round money. How about that?

Now 27, Friedl has pretty much maxed out his tools as a bat control guy with some power, some baserunning, some defense, and an elite bunt tool. The prospect scouting reports labeled him a legit 80 bunter on the 20-80 scouting scale. The Reds have Friedl penciled in as their everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter, and he might get exposed in that role. He projects more as an excellent fourth outfielder who is a fan favorite because he plays hard and has a fun skill set.

Friedl was having a strong season prior to the oblique injury, hitting .306/.351/.468 (116 wRC+) with three homers and better than average strikeout (21.0%) and swinging strike (7.4%) rates. He also leads the league with four bunt hits. Friedl is an elite bunter and there’s value in that. He can move a runner over or straight up bunt for a hit when the opportunity arises.

The downside is Friedl doesn’t walk (5.1%), his contact quality stinks (85.2 mph average exit velocity and 3.0% barrel rate), and a .545 BABIP against lefties is boosting his numbers. His defense isn’t great, but it’s not horrible either. Friedl is essentially a singles and some defense guy, and could work as a fourth outfielder or on the heavy end of a platoon in a deep lineup.

Yankees left fielders went into Thursday's game hitting .188/.265/.279 (52 wRC+) this year and Friedl would fit as a stopgap who slides into a fourth outfielder’s role when the Yankees acquire someone better. I don’t think exit velocity and whatnot matters much with him because that’s not really his game. He scraps and runs and does all that fun stuff. I’d take Friedl over Aaron Hicks. I’d rather have Friedl for that role. As an every single day player, eh, not really.

Ezra asks: it’s a shame we never got to see the in-depth pitch data on Mo’s cutter since he retired a couple years early. I was wondering if anyone has / if it’s possible to estimate things like horizontal / vertical break, spin rate/efficiency, extension, release point, etc. based on video and other data. I’ve seen other publications like fangraphs go deep on why one pitch is so unhittable - it would be cool to see the characteristics of perhaps the best single pitch of all time.

We have some pitch data for Mariano Rivera. He retired after the 2013 season and 2008 was the first full year of pitch tracking, so we have data on late-career Rivera. The good news is 2008 was arguably his finest season as a closer (i.e. his best season other than 1996): 1.40 ERA (2.03 FIP) with a 0.67 WHIP in 70.2 innings. It’s too bad that was wasted on a non-postseason team.

Here is how 2008 Rivera’s cutter stacks up to the MLB averages for right-handed cutters:

The average right-handed cutter has roughly doubled in spin rate since 2008. Seems normal. I’m sure that is all the result of natural human development. Definitely nothing weird or unusual going on behind the scenes that is worth looking into, MLB.

ANYWAY, Rivera’s cutter was an analytical darling in 2008. Better than average velocity and spin, and also induced vertical break. That’s the difference between how much the pitch actually drops and how much it would drop if affected only by gravity. The bigger the number, the more “rise” the pitch appears to have. (Gerrit Cole’s four-seamer is at 17.9 inches, a top of the line number.)

The velocity, spin, and “rise” all made Rivera’s cutter great on its own. Lots of pitchers have one great pitch though. What took Rivera from “great cutter” to “the first unanimous Hall of Famer” is command. It’s not a stretch to say Rivera had the best command in history. It’s him or Greg Maddux, I’d say, and I think you could give Maddux the edge because he was a starter.

Either way, Rivera boasted Hall of Fame command. Here is his cutter location heat map from 2008-13. This covers six seasons and over 4,300 cutters thrown:

Basically nothing in the middle of the plate. Rivera dotted the corners with ease for this six-year period (and his entire career), particularly the inside corner to righties and outside corner to lefties. Rivera’s cutter on its own was a great pitch with great characteristics. Add in the Hall of Fame command, and you have the greatest per-inning pitcher to ever play.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)