May 12th, 2023: Volpe, Bullpen, Peraza, 2023 Draft, Mailbag

It took 425 days, but MLB and the MLBPA finalized the 2022-26 Collective Bargaining Agreement earlier this week. They agreed to terms last March and the lawyers spent the last 14 months haggling over the fine print. J.J. Cooper went through the CBA and highlighted the most interesting nuggets, like, for example, if the All-Star Game is tied after nine innings, each team picks three batters and they decide it with a Home Run Derby. I am now rooting for that to happen. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Thanks to the miserable Oakland Athletics, the Yankees have their first three-game winning streak of the season. Or had, I should say. The Rays rolled into town and put the Yankees back in their place. Shut down by a righty with velocity, an error that led to a run, and an unnecessary pitching change backfired. The Yankees played all the hits Thursday night. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

On Volpe’s lineup spot

Since the start of the Rangers series, Anthony Volpe is 9-for-57 (.158) with two walks and 15 strikeouts, dragging his season batting line down to .199/.292/.338 (79 wRC+). He went 5-for-10 with three walks in the three games at Target Field, pushing his season line up to .228/.358/.354 (108 wRC+), then the Yankees got to Texas, and Volpe stopped hitting.

“Even the last few days, when I don’t think he had a lot of hits, but if you look at the Tampa series I think he led off every game with a bullet for an out,” Aaron Boone said about Volpe’s struggles earlier this week. “He’s having the right at-bats and mixing in that walk.”

Wednesday’s grand slam aside, it looks to me like Volpe is pressing, and that’s understandable, right? He’s hitting leadoff, the offense has mostly struggled, he’s the top prospect expected to make an impact, etc. He’s been very aggressive and has swung at a lot of first pitches lately, and his swing, which is already pretty big for a 5-foot-9 player, has gotten bigger at times.

The thing is, Volpe has hammered the ball lately. He hit the grand slam to dead center field the other day and he’s made several loud outs during this 9-for-57 skid. Here are the Statcast numbers since the start of that Rangers series:

• AVG: .158 actual vs. .258 expected
• SLG: .316 actual vs. .517 expected
• wOBA: .232 actual vs. .340 expected

I wrote about this last summer: Statcast’s expected stats are a bit deceiving. A .258 xBA implies similar batted balls go for a hit 25.8% of the time, which is only partially true. The expected stats use exit velocity and launch angle, but not direction. The same exit velocity and launch angle will produce very different outcomes if the ball is pulled rather than pushed the other way.

The .258 xBA does not mean Volpe got unlucky and should have hit .258 rather than .158 during his 9-for-57 stretch. That’s an oversimplification. The expected stats are a quick and dirty measure of contact quality, and that’s about it. They're not as precise as they appear. They tell us that Volpe has made good contact lately even if the results haven’t been there. Don’t make any more of it than that.

So, Volpe is still making quality contact, and that’s good. It’s not like he’s rolling over on hittable pitches and hitting weak grounders. Some loud and long fly balls that have gone for outs (like these), and that’s the way it goes sometimes. Volpe could stand to tone his aggressiveness down a tad, otherwise this looks like a standard slump, not the league figuring him out.

That all said, I think it would be best to move Volpe down in the lineup. He moved into the leadoff spot out of necessity, not because he was tearing the cover off the ball, and the Yankees are getting healthy. Aaron Judge is back, Harrison Bader is back, and there’s a little more length to the lineup. I’d be in favor of this order:

1. CF Harrison Bader
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. 3B DJ LeMahieu
5. 2B Gleyber Torres
6. DH Jake Bauers/Willie Calhoun
7. LF Oswaldo Cabrera/Jake Bauers
8. C Jose Trevino
9. SS Anthony Volpe

Bader is swinging the bat very well (almost all of his damage has come against lefties though) and giving him the most at-bats atop the lineup makes sense. I like LeMahieu’s contact ability in a run production spot, so I’d leave him at cleanup, and Volpe can go to the nine hole and be the second leadoff guy. That puts a little less pressure on the kid and I don’t think it would damage Volpe’s confidence. He’s handled everything so well.

“It’s definitely a possibility. As we get longer, as we get more guys back in the mix, that can be in play,” Boone said about moving Volpe down in the lineup. “I like the consistency in his approach and really the consistency of his at-bats. He’s taken his lumps here and there but I also think it’s going to serve him well, he’ll process it well. I’ve been really pleased with what he’s doing.”

The best outcome is these loud outs start turning into hits (fingers crossed the grand slam is the start of something), Volpe settles in and builds some confidence, then goes on a run and lays claim to the leadoff spot for the next decade. That would rule. If it doesn’t happen, then I’d be in favor of moving him down in the lineup and going with Bader in the leadoff spot. I think that would be best for the Yankees and best for Volpe too. He can always go back to leadoff later.

The bullpen carousel

The Scranton shuttle was put to heavy use this week. Nick Ramirez threw two innings and 35 pitches Monday night, then got sent down for Greg Weissert. Weissert threw 33 pitches in one inning plus two batters Tuesday night, then got sent down for Deivi García. Deivi threw three innings and 55 pitches Wednesday afternoon, then got sent down for Ryan Weber. Weber threw two innings and 28 pitches Thursday night. We’ll see if he gets replaced Friday.

“It was a big pick-me-up. To be able to have him finish that game and give us three innings was big,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Deivi’s outing. “It wasn’t perfect, but he made some pitches, especially when he got in some three-ball counts so the walk didn’t hurt him.”

García picked up a Wes Littleton save and, at 23 years and 356 days, he became the youngest Yankee to record a save since Phil Hughes (23 years and 73 days) in Sept. 2009. Wednesday was his first big league action since a spot start in Detroit on May 29th, 2021, and it was the first time he pitched at Yankee Stadium since Sept. 26th, 2020. Feels like a lifetime ago.

Deivi’s velocity was up in Spring Training and it stayed up with Triple-A Scranton. He averaged 94.2 mph and topped out at 98.1 mph with the RailRiders. On Wednesday, García threw his seven fastest pitches as a big leaguer, and 16 of his 20 fastest. I didn’t think he looked great, but he did the job against a bad team and spared the rest of the bullpen. Props to him.

(García has not pitched particularly well in Triple-A this year: 4.50 ERA (6.19 FIP) with 19.1% strikeouts and 17.0% walks in 20 innings. I wish the Yankees would use him as a fastball heavy one-inning reliever and see what happens, but they haven’t yet.)

Cycling through last guy in the bullpen types like the Yankees have the last few days is fine, but only for a few days. It’s hard to do longer term because of the 15-day minimum, the limit on options (five per year and Weissert’s already used three), and the general lack of arms. The Yankees have a lot of injuries and have already had to dip deep into their pitching reserves, hence the Weber call up Thursday.

Luis Severino could return as soon as next weekend, at which point the Yankees could put Jhony Brito in the bullpen as a long man. I think he’ll go to Triple-A to remain stretched out, but we’ll see. Tommy Kahnle recently faced hitters and is making progress too. He’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list May 29th. The Yankees have help coming (eventually), but there’s always room for more pitching.

The Reds designated old pal Luis Cessa for assignment earlier this week*. Could he stabilize that last spot in the bullpen? What about Chase Anderson, who the Rays rostered for a week before cutting him loose Wednesday? I’m just looking at freely available players. I don’t love the in-house options and maybe there’s a veteran who can be a temporary upgrade. I dunno.

* Cincinnati used Cessa as a starter this season and the results were awful: 9.36 ERA (5.56 FIP) with more walks (9.5%) than strikeouts (8.7%) in 25 innings. I get why they did it though. Cessa as a rental reliever won’t get much at the trade deadline. As a serviceable rental starter though? Maybe he fetches a prospect. The Reds are bad and they rolled the dice on an upside play. I get it.

The Yankees need a Lucas Luetge type. A last guy in the bullpen who doesn’t make low leverage situations interesting. I’m not saying the Yankees were wrong to trade Luetge*. Just that I kinda took for granted how good he was in his role. The Yankees cycling through garbage time relievers these last few days made me appreciate Luetge a little more.

* Luetge allowed six runs in 6.2 innings to start the season with the Braves. He’s been on the injured list with biceps inflammation since April 17th.

In the grand scheme of things, the last guy in the bullpen is small beans. Who cares who soaks up the last few outs in a blowout? Those back of the bullpen is definitely unsettled though. The last spot is a revolving door and Albert Abreu is not to be trusted. There’s part of the roster that can be improved, so why not try to improve it?

Peraza’s injury

I expected the Yankees to send Oswald Peraza down to make room for Judge earlier this week. They instead placed Peraza on the 10-day injured list with an ankle sprain. He hurt himself when he stumbled into second base last Wednesday, the Yankees played short-handed for five days, then put Peraza on the injured list (it’s backdated to Saturday).

“He’s actually been doing really well the last few days,” Boone said Tuesday. “I think just getting over that final hump where that kind of side-to-side, make a play in the hole, there’s still that hesitancy. Residual feeling of it. He’s been hitting, running great. He actually looks good taking ground balls and everything, but I think there’s just that he’s got that apprehension. So we’ve been a little reluctant to go to him because of not wanting to put him in the field.”

I saw Peraza hit and take ground balls during the A’s series, so he’s definitely doing stuff, but I guess the ankle isn’t 100%. Boone said Peraza will play rehab games at some point and he is eligible to be activated Tuesday. Unless there are other injuries between now and then, I have to think Peraza will be sent to Triple-A once he’s activated. Playing short-handed those five days kinda showed how little the Yankees need him right now.

Playing short-handed for five days and then putting Peraza on the injured list is rather annoying, though I’m more annoyed he didn’t play all that much when he was healthy. There doesn’t seem to be much of a plan here between not playing Peraza much and not preparing him to play third base in Spring Training and Triple-A. Shrug. Hopefully this ankle injury is minor and Peraza comes back soon, and plays somewhere (MLB, Triple-A, wherever).

Miscellany

Severino made his first Triple-A rehab start Wednesday and all went all (49 pitches and one run in 3.1 innings) and it’s no coincidence he pitched the same day as Brito. All things considered, Brito has fared well for a No. 8 starter (3.86 ERA and 4.14 FIP outside the disaster start against the Twins), but every inning has been a grind the last few times out. Severino will make another rehab start Tuesday. He could rejoin the Yankees after that, so next weekend. I hope it happens … Two weeks ago I noted DJ LeMahieu’s strikeout rate is way up this year. He’s struck out only four times in his last 30 plate appearances (13.3%), so that’s beginning to correct itself. LeMahieu is sitting on a still high for him 26.3% strikeout rate, but things are moving in the right direction … Lefties are hitting .378/.446/.689 (.481 wOBA) against Clarke Schmidt this year and you know the Rays are going to load up their lineup with lefties and switch-hitters Sunday. If there were ever a game to give Schmidt a lefty opener, that would be it. Alas, Wandy Peralta is the only lefty in the bullpen, and Ramirez can not come back up yet because of the 15-day rule. Maybe Matt Krook comes off the Triple-A injured list before then? Is that really the spot for his MLB debut? The Yankees have not used an opener since 2021 and I don’t get the sense they’re about to start. Tampa is about as bad a matchup as you’ll find for Schmidt though … And finally, what a weak showing Thursday night. The 2023 Yankees haven’t earned the right to tip their cap to the opposing pitcher. It wasn’t until the game was all but decided in the ninth inning that someone other than Jake Bauers got a hit and the Yankees got a runner to second base. They barely hit the ball out of the infield …

… and Drew Rasmussen threw only 76 pitches in his seven shutout innings. Already 10 times the opposing starter has completed seven innings against the Yankees this season. It happened 18 times all last year and only 12 times in 2021. Boone thinks so little of the offense that he waved the white flag with Weber in a 5-0 game in Yankee Stadium. 5-0 with two innings to play doesn't mean game over! Or it shouldn't, anyway. A bad offense continues to be bad. The A’s series is not to be taken seriously.

2. Previewing the 2023 draft. We are now into May and I’ve yet to do any 2023 draft content. Blame MLB for moving the draft back from early June to the All-Star break, I guess. Still plenty of time to look at prospects and potential Yankees targets and whatnot.

Similar to previous years, I’m planning to profile prospects between now and the draft. Some will be players I like, some will be players who appear to fit the Yankees’ preferred profile, and some will be neither. Usually we cover enough ground to hit on the player the Yankees take in the first round. Here are my 2020 Austin Wells, 2021 Trey Sweeney, and 2022 Spencer Jones pre-draft profiles.

We’ll dive into the individual prospect profiles next week. But first, let’s cover the basics of the 2023 draft, shall we?

Draft details

The All-Star Game is in Seattle this year and the draft will begin Sunday, July 9th. And yes, MLB will still broadcast it. The MLB draft isn’t really a made-for-television event but at least the league is trying. The problem is these kids disappear into the minors for a few years. It’s not like you’re going to see your favorite team draft next year’s starting center fielder.

Anyway, the draft is again a three-day event and they’re holding it at Lumen Field, home of the Seahawks. The MLB draft will be held in an NFL stadium instead of literally across the street at T-Mobile Park. Alrighty. The Day 1 broadcast starts at 7pm ET Sunday and Days 2-3 are online only. Here’s what’s happening each day:

• Sunday, July 9th: First round through compensation rounds
• Monday, July 10th: Rounds 3-10
• Tuesday, July 11th: Rounds 11-20

The third annual draft combine will be held June 20-25 at Chase Field and the top 300 prospects will be invited, though only 150 or so will accept based on the last two years (a few will be playing in the College World Series that week). The Yankees liked what they saw from Brock Selvidge, my No. 24 prospect, at the 2021 combine, and gave him a $1.5M bonus as their third round pick.

MLB and MLB Network will have a bunch of coverage from the combine. That’s not my cup of tea, but if you’re into it, draft combine content will be available.

Bonus pool and slot values

The Yankees surrendered their second and fifth round draft picks (and $1M in international bonus pool money) to sign Carlos Rodón, so they’re light on picks and bonus pool space this year. Here are the slot values for their picks, via Jim Callis:

1st round (No. 26 overall): $3,065,000
3rd round (No. 97 overall): $692,000
4th round (No. 129 overall): $506,800
6th round (No. 192 overall): $285,400
7th round (No. 222 overall): $224,700
8th round (No. 252 overall): $188,000
9th round (No. 282 overall): $173,100
10th round (No. 312 overall): $164,400

It adds up to a $5,299,400 bonus pool. Only the Phillies ($5,185,500) have less to spend. Every pick in rounds 11-20 comes with a $125,000 slot value. Anything over that counts against the bonus pool. Same with undrafted free agents.

The bonus pools are a soft cap and exceeding your pool by up to 5% comes with a 75% tax on the overage. After 5%, you start forfeiting future draft picks, and no team has done that. The Yankees have spent right up to the 5% threshold just about every year of the draft pool era, and the extra 5% puts their actual bonus pool at $5,564,370.

Here is the full draft order. This is the first year of the new draft order format, which includes a lottery for the top six picks and orders postseason teams by their finish. The Yankees wound up with the No. 26 pick for losing the ALCS and that is exactly the pick they would have had with the reverse order of the standings.

Competitive Balance Round A (Nos. 30-38) and B (Nos. 62-67) picks are tradeable. Every year I say I hope the Yankees trade for one and every year they don’t, but this would be the year to do it after forfeiting two picks to get Rodón. The Athletics have the No. 39 pick and it comes with a bit more than $2.2M in bonus pool money. Maybe they’re so cheap they’d trade the pick to avoid the bonus. Might as well call and ask, right?

Mock drafts

The 2023 draft class is considered very strong at the top and especially deep in college players. There’s a reason for that. MLB cut the 2020 draft to five rounds during the pandemic and a lot of top high schoolers with big bonus demands went undrafted and wound up in school. Three years later, those kids are coming out of college. The draft class is stacked.

LSU OF Dylan Crews, the consensus No. 1 draft prospect, is hitting .463/.609/.800 (214 wRC+) with 13 homers and more than twice as many walks (50) as strikeouts (24) in 47 games this spring. His teammate, RHP Paul Skenes, is touted as the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. He has a 1.73 ERA (1.65 FIP) with a 50.4% strikeout rate in 72.2 innings.

All the early mock drafts have the Pirates taking Crews with the No. 1 pick, though Skenes is not a lock to go No. 2 because analytical models ding pitchers for the injury risk (only four of the top 19 picks last year were pitchers). Here’s what the early mock drafts say about the Yankees and that No. 26 pick.

Baseball America v1.0 (subs. req’d)

26. Yankees — Kyle Teel, C, Virginia (32)
I think Teel could continue to move up boards. If he keeps this up I could see him getting into the teens. The power profile will be a good litmus test for how high he can go. The defense has shown well and the arm strength has never been in question for him. There are some questions about the receiving. If that stock moves up and if he continues to control the zone like this I could see him getting to the same range as Matt Thaiss in 2016, and his defensive profile is definitely better than that.

Baseball America v2.0 (subs. req’d)

26. Yankees — Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian
Taylor currently ranks as the No. 10 prospect on our draft board, but he’s been scuffling and despite strong on-base skills and one of the better eyes in the class, teams want to see him hit more than .275—especially as a corner profile. Impact was a bit of a question mark with Taylor entering the season as a corner profile, and he has hit a career-best 15 home runs this spring, but he’ll need a strong finish to the season to get back into consideration for the top half of the first round.

Jim Callis

26. Yankees: Travis Sykora, RHP, Round Rock (Texas) HS
The archetype of the hard-throwing Texas high schooler, Sykora can reach 101 mph with good metrics on his fastball and also misses bats with his mid-80s short slider and splitter. Other potential first-rounders among prep pitchers: right-hander Charlee Soto (Reborn Christian Academy, Kissimmee, Fla.).

We’re still a few weeks away from seeing the Yankees connected to specific players, so I wouldn’t make too much of the mock drafts thus far. They reflect the stock of the players more than the team’s interest. Those are the mock drafts if you’re interested though. Here is MLB.com’s top 150 draft prospects list. All the scouting reports are free.

What about the Yankees?

The Yankees have used their last five first round picks on position players and their last three on a left-handed hitting college player with premium batted ball data who plays an up-the-middle position. The whole “lefty college bat” thing might be a coincidence. I don’t think the first round emphasis on position players is though. It’s part of a league-wide trend. Hitters are safer than pitchers.

Furthermore, the Yankees did not draft a single high school player last season, and they drafted only two high schoolers the year before. Everything is trending toward college-heavy drafts with an emphasis on hitters early and model-friendly pitchers in the middle rounds, and the Yankees are part of that trend. I would expect the same this year. It has become their M.O.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a series of international games as part of the new Collective Bargaining agreement and it sounds like the Yankees are toward the back of the line because they went to London in 2019. Tom Verducci has the upcoming matchups:

• June 2023: Cardinals vs. Cubs in London
• Opening Day 2024: Dodgers vs. Padres in South Korea
• May 2024: Astros vs. Rockies in Mexico City
• June 2024: Mets vs. Phillies in London
• Opening Day 2025: TBA in Tokyo
• May 2025: TBA in Mexico City
• June 2025: TBA in Paris

The Yankees have made it known they want to be part of the Paris series, ditto the Dodgers and Red Sox. Apparently MLB doesn’t want to keep sending the same teams to these things though, so the Yankees might be out of luck. I hope not. The Yankees in Paris might be what finally gets me to stop being lazy and renew my passport … And finally, now that the Athletics are getting their Las Vegas ballpark situation squared away, expect the expansion rumblings to begin. This is the longest expansion drought since MLB first expanded in 1961, and there are groups trying to bring teams to Nashville, Orlando, Portland, and Salt Lake City. I may have missed a few others too. It’ll be a few years before the expansion stuff gets serious, but it’s coming, and so is an expansion draft. Fun fun fun. (Here’s my look at the 1992 expansion draft.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

William asks: After watching Oakland this week, MLB needs to come up with some sort of system to prevent teams from being THIS bad. Obviously relegation like they have in European soccer isn't possible due to the lack of another professional league but what about some sort of punishment to the teams if they meet certain criteria? If a team loses 100+ games and has a payroll under $100 million they lose all revenue sharing for two years, this would warn owners about just pocketing this money and in case a team actually does spend and has a bad year they're not penalized. Nothing about Oakland right now is professional.

The Athletics are really, really bad. I knew they were bad going into this week’s series and they’re somehow even worse than I realized. There’s some talent in the lineup. That pitching staff though? It is awful. It’s a shame what’s happened to baseball in Oakland. The league should be embarrassed by it.

Relegation would never work for MLB because, as William notes, there is no second pro league to relegate teams too. You can’t send the worst MLB team to Triple-A and promote the best Triple-A team to MLB because that Triple-A team is someone’s minor league affiliate. If Triple-A Scranton got promoted, would the Yankees still supply them with players? And how much would you mess up development by forcing prospects to face MLB competition before they’re ready?

As always, the best solution is to hit teams in their wallet. It is the only language owners speak. Taking away draft picks isn’t gonna work. Stripping teams of revenue sharing money could only be part of a solution because not every team receives revenue sharing. The Rangers pay into revenue sharing and they had a pretty bad stretch for a few years, for example.

The national television contracts are split evenly among the 30 teams and, on average, each team receives roughly $60M annually. That means you could give the team with the worst record $1M and the team with the best record $119M, and the second worst team $3M and the second best team $117M, etc. etc. Think that would lead to a greater emphasis on winning?

The A’s get $43M to $48M per year in local television money, plus the $60M a year in national television money, and they’re being phased back in as a revenue sharing recipient. That’s more than $100M a year before selling a single ticket. FanGraphs estimates Oakland’s payroll at $58.8M this year. Where is the rest of the money going? Between that and the ballpark situation, owner John Fisher is getting away with some shady stuff, and MLB is letting it happen.

Rob asks: With both players struggling, would you propose Waldo for Oscar Gonzalez?

The Guardians are hitting .221/.297/.325 (73 wRC+) as a team this year and they’ve hit 19 (!) home runs. Gonzalez, who had the walk-off homer in Wild Card Series Game 2 and the walk-off single in ALDS Game 3 last year, was hitting .192/.213/.288 (33 wRC+) before Cleveland sent him to Triple-A. Last season he hit .296/.327/.461 (122 wRC+) in 91 games as a rookie.

For what it’s worth, the Trade Values site says Gonzalez for Oswaldo Cabrera is even, plus each player is under team control through 2028, so that matches up nicely (Cabrera is a full year younger than Gonzalez).

One guy is a poor defensive corner outfielder (-8 OAA in under 900 innings) who hits for power, doesn’t walk, and doesn’t strike out much. The other is a super utility guy with good defense who has some power, doesn’t walk, and can be prone to swings and misses. Gonzalez has the edge on offense because he makes more contact. Cabrera has the edge on defense because he’s so versatile and capable with the glove.

I think Cabrera for Gonzalez is perfectly fair and would potentially address a long-term corner outfield need. It would be nice if Gonzalez were left-handed, but what can you do? I think I would pass though. Cabrera’s skill set (very versatile and not a zero at the plate, at least in theory) is more scarce because solid corner outfielders are plentiful. Of course, the Yankees were not able to find one in the offseason, so maybe I’m completely wrong.

It would be a fair trade and an interesting challenge trade – my struggling young outfielder who had a fine rookie season for your struggling young super utility guy who had a fine rookie season – that would potentially address each team’s roster needs. I don’t think I would do it, but it’s not crazy and I would totally understand if the Yankees went ahead with it.

Jonathan asks: Why don't teams with resources like the Yankees buy prospects?  We always see players traded for cash but they are usually below replacement level. Why don't you see teams offering $$$ to buy prospects?  Like would Oakland trade say Denzel Clarke for $3-5m(random amount)?

MLB wouldn’t allow it. The commissioner’s office has to approve every transaction in which $1M+ changes hands, and they would veto a trade that is pretty clearly a sale of a prospect. It’s one thing to trade a player who has been designated for assignment for cash (usually the $50,000 waiver claim fee). It’s another to trade a player for several million dollars and nothing else.

Jonathan mentioned A’s OF Denzel Clarke, so let’s use him. Clarke is a fringe top 100 prospect and, in 2018, Craig Edwards found those players are worth about $16M. Fast forward to 2023 and it’s probably more like $20M. MLB would see a “Clarke for $20M” trade come across the desk and say uh, no, can’t do that. The league strongly opposes selling players for competitive integrity reasons, which is why the Vida Blue sale to the Yankees was blocked.

Daniel asks: Can you walk through the Yankees 2024 draft pick scenario? If they exceed the luxury tax, which they currently are slated to do, their pick gets moved back 10 spots? If Volpe wins ROY (long way to go but probably AL frontrunner as of end of April), they get first pick after 2nd round? And if they sign a QO free agent (let’s say Ohtani), they lose their 2nd and 5th picks, even if those picks “move up” with a PPI? So assuming the same pick next year as this, their first pick moves from 26 to 36, they get the 29th pick for Volpe (maybe 28th depending on where Mets fall in the first round) and if they sign Ohtani or other QO free agent, they lose the 36th pick in the draft, not their 2nd round pick right?

I went through the 2023 draft situation earlier in this post, so I might as well look ahead to 2024 as well. First and foremost, the Yankees are over the $273M third luxury tax threshold, so their first round pick will move back 10 spots next year. They’re at $292.9M right now and, realistically, there’s no way they can get under $273M to avoid the 10-spot penalty.

If Anthony Volpe wins Rookie of the Year, the Yankees would get a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick. The PPI pick would come immediately after the first round. The Mets and Padres are over the $273M threshold and will have their first rounder moved back 10 spots as well, but if they don’t make the postseason, their picks will stay in the first round even after moving back. If the Mets, Padres, and Yankees all make the postseason, their first pick moves out of the first round. There would be 27 picks in the first round and the PPI pick for Volpe would be No. 28.

Because they will pay luxury tax, the Yankees would only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round for losing a qualified free agent (Harrison Bader? Luis Severino?). The Collective Bargaining Agreement says teams that pay luxury tax have to forfeit their second and fifth highest draft picks (and $1M in international bonus money) to sign a qualified free agent. That is not the same as second and fifth round picks! As far as I can tell PPI picks are not protected. They can be lost for free agent compensation.

Let’s assume the Yankees again wind up with the No. 26 pick, and the Mets and Padres make the postseason and their first pick moves out of the first round. In that case, the Yankees’ 2024 draft would be laid out like this (this is all ballpark because things will move around as teams gain and lose picks for free agent compensation):

PPI pick for Volpe: No. 28 overall
“First” rounder: Moves back 10 spots to No. 36
Second rounder: No. 68
Third rounder: No. 104
Fourth rounder: No. 134
Compensation pick for qualified free agent: No. 139
Fifth rounder: No. 165 (then every 30 picks thereafter)

There are two Competitive Balance Rounds in there (14 total picks), which is why it’s not nice and neat and every 30th pick after the second round.

The Yankees would forfeit the No. 36 and 134 picks to sign a qualified free agent. Those are their second and fifth highest picks even though they are technically their first and fourth rounders. I just gave myself a headache working through all that, so let’s not worry about this again until the offseason, sound good?

Emiliano asks: If you were the person in charge of choosing which farewell gift the Yankees would give Miguel Cabrera, what would it be?

Fun question! Miguel Cabrera announced this will be his final season over the winter and it’s not going well. Now 40, Cabrera is hitting .188/.222/.232 (25 wRC+) and he’s started only 18 of Detroit’s 36 games. If the Tigers were competitive, it’s fair to wonder whether they’d release him like the Angels released Albert Pujols. They’re not though, so he stays.

The Tigers have played seven road series this season. Here are the gifts Cabrera has received so far:

• Rays: Key to the City of Lakeland (where the Tigers hold Spring Training)
• Astros: A bottle of Dusty Baker’s wine and a cowboy hat
• Blue Jays: Framed photos of his 500th career home run (he hit it in Toronto)
• Orioles: A brick from the B&O Warehouse behind Camden Yards
• Brewers: A cheesehead, a custom jacket, and a donation to his foundation
• Cardinals: Framed photo of his 400th career home run (he hit it in St. Louis)
• Guardians: Nothing yet (the Tigers go back to Cleveland in August)

My first thought was something from the 2003 World Series. It was so long ago and the Yankees have won a World Series since then, so I’m not opposed to honoring Cabrera for that moment. You beat us, congrats. This wouldn’t fly with, say, something from the 2004 ALCS for David Ortiz, but Cabrera and the 2003 Marlins? Sure, why not.

(The Yankees gave Ortiz a painting and a leatherbound book with handwritten notes from past and present Yankees when he retired. Ortiz was very appreciative.)

I was thinking third base from that 2003 World Series (assuming the Yankees have one lying around) since that was Cabrera’s position, but it turns out Miggy played the outfield that series. Huh. A base could still work though, it’s just a little bit of a stretch. What do the Yankees have stashed away from that series anyway? I’d like to rummage through that collection.

Cabrera famously hit a home run after getting buzzed upstairs by Roger Clemens in that series (video). A framed photo or painting or subway tile mosaic of that moment would be cool. I’m sure Cabrera counts that among his career highlights, and there would be a personal touch. And if Clemens doesn’t like it, who cares? He accomplished plenty in his career. (It’s not like the Yankees maintain any sort of relationship with Clemens anyway.)

For some reason I thought Cabrera got his 3,000th career hit against the Yankees, but no. He had a chance to get it when the Yankees went to Detroit last year, but Aaron Boone intentionally walked him when he was sitting on 2,999 hits. Remember that? A gift involving Cabrera’s 3,000th hit would have been a slam dunk. Alas, he got it against the Rockies.

So, that’s what I would give Miggy. A piece of art commemorating that 2003 World Series home run, plus the Yankees can throw in a donation to his foundation. Can you tell I’m a bad gift-giver? Because I’m a bad gift-giver. Cabrera and the Tigers don’t visit the Yankees until Sept. 5-7.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)