April 25th, 2023: Peraza, Schmidt, Hicks, Offense, Injuries, Prospects

Shameless self-promotion: I wrote a thing at CBS the other day about the Yankees' offense, or lack thereof. Nothing groundbreaking in there, you all know what’s up, but that’s there if you want to read it. Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. On a struggling offense (with little help coming). For the ninth time in the last 11 games, the Yankees failed to score more than three runs Monday night. The opposing starter has thrown seven shutout innings in each of the last three games. Look at Monday’s spray chart. Being generous, I’d say the Yankees hit nine balls to the outfield in fair territory.

“We’re the Yankees and we’ve got to find a way to do a little better than that,” Aaron Boone said after the loss (video). “Part of (our struggles) is the ebb and flow, and part of that is we’ve got to kick it in. We’ve got to figure it out.”

The Yankees are averaging 4.07 runs per game, 22nd among the 30 teams, and they are below average in AVG (.225 vs. .245 league average), OBP (.306 vs. .320), and SLG (.391 vs. .403). We could go on and on with the bad offensive stats:

• The Yankees have hit the sixth most home runs in baseball, but 67% of their homers have been solo shots. The league average is 57%. That big game-breaking blow hasn’t been there.
• The 5-9 lineup spots are hitting a combined .190/.262/.315 (63 wRC+). Only the very bad Rockies (53 wRC+) and Royals (45 wRC+) have gotten worse production from the 5-9 spots.
• In terms of AVG and OBP, the Yankees have actually been better with runners in scoring position (.244/.333) than with the bases empty (.228/.298), if you can believe that.

This is not an isolated three-week blip either. The Yankees were 19th in runs per game in 2021, and Yankees other than Aaron Judge hit .232/.291/.360 after the All-Star break last season. The Yankees having a middling offense is not a new development. It has been the norm more than often than not the last two seasons plus three weeks.

"We've got to score more than we have here lately,” Boone said after Sunday’s loss (video). "Part of it is we're banged up. We've got to find ways. Right now, we're struggling to roll out a crooked number."

To some extent yes, the guys on the roster have to be better, specifically Judge (6-for-41 slump) and Gleyber Torres (6-for-39). The Yankees are counting on those two plus DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo to do the heavy lifting at the plate. But even with a locked in Judge and Torres, the Yankees still have a very top heavy lineup because they are:

Punting offense at catcher: Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino entered Monday’s game with a combined .189/.221/.338 (52 wRC+) slash line. How much better can the Yankees expect them to be, really? Can Higashioka and Trevino get to an 87 wRC+, the MLB average for catchers? I’m not sure! These two are great defenders, but the catcher is still gonna get 3-4 at-bats a game. They count.

Breaking in three rookies: Oswaldo Cabrera exhausted his rookie eligibility last year but he’s not exactly a seasoned vet, so he’s essentially a rookie. Anthony Volpe has been better of late, but still, those two and Oswald Peraza (in his limited time) haven’t hit the ground running, which is a totally normal thing! Not every prospect performs right away. Still, three rookies experiencing growing pains equals a lot of outs (these three have a combined .291 OBP).

Thin on the bench: Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero, Aaron Hicks, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are a combined 20-for-130 (.154) with four homers, all by Franchy weeks ago. The Yankees have little depth on the position player side. The best thing you can say about the bench is Cordero might run into a mistake, Hicks might draw a walk, and Kiner-Falefa gets his 10,000 steps in each day with his routes in center field (that's mean, he's in a difficult spot and he's trying his best).

Injured: To me, this is not a good excuse for the underwhelming offense because Giancarlo Stanton is the only position player on the injured list you can reasonably expect to be an above-average hitter. Maybe Harrison Bader can be one too, but he wasn’t last regular season, and we’ve seen so little of him since the trade that who knows what to expect? Losing Stanton hurt, for sure. Losing Stanton was also entirely foreseeable. He is six-ish weeks away from returning. Bader is about a week away.

Between the catcher, the kids, and whichever one of the bench guys in the lineup (at least one of Calhoun, Cordero, Hicks, or Kiner-Falefa has to be in the lineup each game, that’s just the roster math), that’s five low impact lineup spots. That’s five innings worth of outs. Every game, day after day. It’s difficult to score with so many weak spots in the lineup, as we’re seeing.

The alternatives are lacking. Jake Bauers is hitting .333/.479/.860 (224 wRC+) with eight home runs* and more walks (21.9%) than strikeouts (16.4%) in Triple-A, so I guess the Yankees could give him a look. Swap out Calhoun for Bauers and see if it helps, that kinda thing. Cycling through Quad-A types is a band-aid more than a solution, and frankly not something the Yankees do all that often.

* Bauers had a three-homer game two weeks ago and all three came against Dylan Bundy, who is cooked. He's been cooked for two years now. As far as I can tell Bauers has made no swing changes or mechanical adjustments. In Spring Training he told Conor Foley he’s healthy and he likes the way the Yankees go about their cage work, and that’s pretty much it.

The Yankees are 13-10 and not 10-13 because the run prevention has been so good. Even with Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino (and a few relievers) combining for zero pitches thrown this year, the Yankees are allowing only 3.39 runs per game, second fewest in baseball. The pitching and defense has been on point, and it will have to remain on point with this offense.

(An underrated crummy thing about the 2023 Yankees is great pitching/bad hitting teams are boring as sin. Speaking purely as a spectator, give me bad pitching/great hitting over great pitching/bad hitting eight days a week.)

There is no cavalry coming. Bader will be back next week (fingers crossed) and that’s it for the foreseeable future. The Yankees could swap out Calhoun for Bauers or whoever, but that’s not moving the needle. The Yankees need the players they have to be better, but there’s also a lot of dead weight on this roster you can’t realistically expect to be better. The offense needed help – badly – over the winter. The Yankees did not get it and hoo boy, it shows. This is last postseason on repeat.

"It's only April. Onward and upward," Boone said Sunday (video). "We start a tough road trip (Monday). Overall, I think we are playing really well while we are hoping and waiting for guys to get back. But it has allowed other guys to step up, and they have done that. We just have to keep pushing right now when it's tough, and keep grinding away offensively."

2. Weekend thoughts. The undefeated series streak is over. Long live the undefeated series streak. The Yankees dropped Sunday’s rubber game with the Blue Jays and are now 5-1-1 in their seven completed series. They were the last team in baseball to lose a series in 2023. Hey, that’s better than being the first team to lose a series in 2023. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Peraza at the hot corner

I can’t say the Yankees did a good job preparing Oswald Peraza to play third base, but playing third base he is with Josh Donaldson’s hamstring acting up. Peraza started three straight games at the hot corner over the weekend and it was his first time playing the position. Ever. He never played third in the minors or in Spring Training. The Yankees threw him into the fire and I’m totally cool with it. Get him on the field however you have to.

“With Oswaldo, we ripped the band-aid off even moreso,” Aaron Boone told Mark Sanchez over the weekend, referring to the Yankees playing Oswaldo Cabrera in the outfield despite little outfield experience last season. “(Peraza is) a really talented defender, so I think he’ll be fine.”

In his three games Peraza wasn’t tested with anything too difficult at third base. He had two infield singles hit his way in the Blue Jays series (video) and maybe a more experienced third baseman charges the ball a little more aggressively, but I’m not sure it would have mattered anyway. Peraza has made all the routine plays look routine at third. That’s a good start.

At the plate Peraza is 3-for-15 (.200) with three walks and three strikeouts in the early going, but he’s only been up a week. I will say Peraza lining a single to left and then meeting Anthony Volpe at home plate to high five him after his go-ahead two-run homer Saturday was a proud prospect dad moment. I hope we get another decade-plus of this:

Peraza is running a very low 13.9% chase rate in the early going (totally sustainable!), which is nice to see given his tendency to hack. Remember, Boone criticized Peraza’s at-bats in Spring Training. He never does that with young players. So, even in a tiny sample, Peraza has been much more selective at the plate. May it lead to better results soon.

All indications are Donaldson will miss another few weeks with the hamstring injury, so there’s a nice long runway to play Peraza everyday. Not at his natural position, but at a position, and the important thing is being in the lineup. Let him play, let him get settled in, and give him a chance to blossom into the player the Yankees believe he can be.

“There’s no question he can play the position,” Boone told Gary Phillips. “It’s just the newness of it, the rawness of it. Over time, he will be able to. But right now there’s some opportunities, so we’ll just mix and match.”

A good start for Schmidt

I thought Boone really pushed his luck when he asked Clarke Schmidt to go through the top of the lineup a third time Sunday – take the five shutout innings and run! let Schmidt leave a start feeling good about his performance for the first time this season! – and sure enough it backfired. Homers by Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho opened the scoring and iced the game.

“It leaves a sour taste in your mouth,” Schmidt told Bryan Hoch after Sunday’s game. “Overall, I’m happy with the progression that I made. I'll continue to take this one on to the next one and start getting on a little roll here.”

The first five innings were the five best innings Schmidt has thrown in his five starts. In those five innings Schmidt faced 17 batters, struck out eight, and allowed just three balls out of the infield. The cutter Schmidt spent all spring working on and raving about? It’s going away. He’s using it less and less with each passing start:

Considering how ineffective the cutter has been – lefties are hitting .385/.442/.795 (.518 wOBA) against Schmidt – yeah, scaling back on it is in order. Schmidt was getting beat on his fourth best pitch too often. Maybe he can reintroduce it in a few weeks. Right now, Schmidt just needs to have some success, which means leaning on his best pitches.

I thought Schmidt’s command was sharp Sunday, the sharpest it’s been all season, and I hope it was the start of a trend but also understand it might have been a one-start blip. The manager did the struggling young pitcher no favors by asking him to face the top of that lineup a third time, but Schmidt had a very good start Sunday. Encouraging. May it be the start of something.

“I flipped a switch in my mind,” Schmidt told Hoch. “Coming up, I was always aggressive, kind of like a fierce competitor, attacking at all times. I felt like I strayed away from that my first few outings. Getting back to that was my main thing.”

(According to James Smyth, Schmidt’s pitching line Sunday was the first of its kind in baseball history. The first 5.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K line out of over a million individual pitching lines. How in the world?)

The beginning of the end for Hicks?

I have been fooled before (several times), but it’s beginning to feel like the Yankees will soon move on from Aaron Hicks. Monday night was Hicks’ first game since last Tuesday, and he was not in the lineup Friday night against Yusei Kikuchi even though Boone has said he views Hicks as a platoon guy against lefties. Lately, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gotten those platoon starts instead.

“We’re going to mix and match,” Boone told Jon Heyman last week. “Obviously it’s a blow when Giancarlo is not in the lineup, but that being said, Hicksie is a switch hitter. I do feel we can mix and match and get it done.”

Hicks is 3-for-28 (.107) with three walks (.194 OBP) and no extra-base hits in the early going, and he tried to bunt for a hit with two outs and the bases empty in the third inning Monday night. How bad do you have to feel at the plate to do that? Hicks is not playing often, and, when he does play, he does things like that. He’s a waste of a roster spot, and with Harrison Bader inching closer to a return, the writing is on the wall (maybe, possibly).

The Diamondbacks ate $34M to cut ties with Madison Bumgarner last week. The Reds ate $22M to make Mike Moustakas go away in January. The Padres ate $44M to move on from Eric Hosmer last summer. At some point this year the Braves are likely to dump Marcell Ozuna. He’s owed $17M next year plus whatever’s left of his $18M salary this year. Lots of teams are paying lots of money to make players go away.

If the Reds – the cheap ass Reds – can eat $22M in one year to dump Moustakas, the Yankees can eat $30.5M across three years to release Hicks. $30.5M is a lot of money in the real world but it is a trivial amount in the baseball world, especially to the Yankees. Eating the money is not really a “can they?” question though. Of course the Yankees can. This is an “are they willing to?” question.

The thing is, the Yankees are not short on dead weight. When Bader returns it will be quite easy to argue Willie Calhoun and/or Franchy Cordero deserve to be let go more than Hicks, or that Oswaldo Cabrera should go to Triple-A. The decision to cut Hicks, who barely plays, seems obvious enough, and yet it’s not that obvious at all. There are others who could deservedly get the roster ax instead.

I think the fact Calhoun and Cordero have played while Hicks has not (those two started two games each during Hicks’ hiatus) is a bit telling, especially with runs being so hard to come by. The Yankees didn’t give Hicks, a player they owe a decent chunk of change, the opportunity to help the offense over the weekend. That feels like something, not nothing.

If the Yankees don’t release Hicks when Bader comes back, then I have no idea what the plan is with him. Does he continue to sit on the bench and play maybe once a week? Or do they force feed him playing time and hope something clicks? I mean, they’re barely playing him now with Bader out. Why would they play him more once Bader is healthy? Like I said, I’ve been wrong about this before, but it feels like Hicks’ days are numbered.

Miscellany

I bear no ill will toward Joey Gallo. He stunk as a Yankee but he tried and he worked hard, and it just didn’t work. I will admit though that I got a kick out of the fan yelling, “Hey Gallo, why couldn’t you do that in New York, you bum!” after the home run Monday (video). It came through crystal clear on the broadcast and I couldn’t help but laugh … Gerrit Cole was not at his best Saturday and yet he still navigated through 5.2 scoreless innings against a good Blue Jays lineup. Cole is sitting on a 0.79 ERA (2.18 FIP) and a .155/.230/.200 opponent’s batting line through five starts and 34 innings. Also, still no home runs. This is the first time Cole has gone five straight starts without allowing a homer since April 2021 … Since his last home run Franchy Cordero is 1-for-21 with nine strikeouts. His whiff rate against breaking balls is over 50%. This is a work of art:

I have nothing further to add. It's so terrible it's beautiful … Colten Brewer was designated for assignment two weeks ago and he accepted the outright assignment to Triple-A Scranton rather than elect free agency. He’s with the RailRiders. I wonder if this is a Ryan Weber situation and Brewer has agreed to return to Triple-A each time he’s called up and then dropped from the 40-man roster (presumably in exchange for a higher than usual Triple-A salary, otherwise there's little point in hanging around). Either way, I suspect we’ll see Brewer again later this year, perhaps as soon as Tuesday given Jhony Brito's bullpen-taxing short start … And finally, I dig the Ryan Ruocco and Jeff Nelson combination in the booth. Good chemistry and a mellow, low key vibe. They might be a little too chill for an important game later in the season, but for a road trip through Minnesota and Texas in April? Perfect.

3. Injury updates. As noted earlier, Josh Donaldson will miss another few weeks with what Aaron Boone described as a Grade 1+ hamstring strain. "I'm bummed out. I felt like it was going to be any day now,” Donaldson told Joon Lee. Donaldson is 37. These things take time to heal. He should take another five, six months to make sure he’s fully healthy before trying to come back. Better to be safe than sorry, you know? Here are a few more injury updates.

Bader begins rehab assignment

Let’s start with the good news. Harrison Bader began a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on Friday. He is 1-for-6 with a double (video) in two games thus far. Boone estimated Bader will spend 10-14 days on rehab. They want to build him up to play a full nine innings on back-to-back days.

“Seeing Harrison this morning, he was like, ‘I could play today,’” Boone told Erik Boland on Saturday, the day after Bader’s first rehab game. “So I think it went well last night. Had a good amount of action in the outfield. Said he felt really good, so a good first day for him.”

The Yankees return home from their current road trip next Monday, May 1st. That would be the 11th day of Bader’s rehab assignment, and that’s the first day of a quick three-game homestand. Sounds like the Yankees hope Bader is ready at the end of that homestand next Thursday at the latest. If he’s not ready by then, geez, I dunno. Likely means a setback.

Which Bader will the Yankees get when he returns? He’ll play great defense, I’m sure of it, but they need offense. Expecting him to repeat what he did last postseason is unrealistic. Can he be 2021 Bader (.267/.324/.460 and 110 wRC+) rather than 2022 Bader (.250/.294/.356 and 86 wRC+)? I hope so. Non-Aaron Judge outfielders entered Monday’s game hitting .195/.237/.335. The lineup needs a jolt and Bader is the only thing resembling a jolt on the horizon.

Rodón’s back looks “pretty normal”

Can’t say I like the way this Carlos Rodón stuff is trending. After throwing a two-inning bullpen session last Monday, the Yankees shut Rodón down because his back is still barking. They sent him for tests, including a CT scan, which showed no structural damage. Boone told Mark Sanchez everything looked “pretty normal.” Here is a timeline of Rodón’s back trouble:

• April 10th: First experiences back stiffness (as far as we know).
• April 12th: Throws a light bullpen session.
• April 17th: Throws a two-inning bullpen session.
• April 18th: Renewed back stiffness, sent for tests.
• April 19th: Boone calls it a “minor nagging thing,” but Rodón is sent for a CT scan.
• April 21st: Boone says the CT scan was “pretty normal,” again calls it a minor injury.

It’s a minor injury, trust us. Just ignore that Rodón had to have a throwing session pushed back, then he had to be shut down, then he had to go for tests, then he had to go for a CT scan. It’s minor as long as you ignore him not throwing and the growing battery of tests. Sigh.

“I think it’s frustrating for him, certainly,” Boone told Greg Joyce last week. “Again, elbow’s good. I don’t think this is any big deal other than a nuisance that’s slowing him a little bit. We definitely know he’s going to be worth the wait. We just want to make sure he’s good to go when that time comes.”

At this point it’s difficult to see Rodón, the only meaningful addition the Yankees made this past offseason, joining the Yankees before June 1st. It’s been almost seven weeks since his lone Grapefruit League start and he’s yet to face hitters. Rodón will need some time to get right with his stuff and command before getting stretching out in rehab games. It’ll be a while.

I know the ultimate goal is pairing Rodón with Gerrit Cole in the postseason and there’s still plenty of time to make that a reality. This is getting frustrating though. The offense is weak and the Yankees have to win with pitching and defense, and their big ticket pitching addition is not particularly close to helping the team. This stinks.

“Hopefully the back continues to subside,” Boone told Gary Phillips over the weekend. “But I don’t think it’s anything major, like structurally or from a test standpoint. He hasn’t lost a lot of throwing time. So he should get right back into that as soon as he can get through this.”

Severino faces hitters

Luis Severino, who suffered his lat injury two weeks after Rodón’s forearm acted up, is likely to beat Rodón back to the Yankees. Severino faced Bader and Willie Calhoun as part of a 35-pitch session last Thursday, and he threw again Monday. He’ll do it again this Friday. Nothing is set in stone, but it could be time for a rehab assignment after that.

“I don’t know when the rehab will commence or what pitch threshold they want to get him to before,” Boone told Randy Miller over the weekend.

Assuming three minor league rehab games, Severino is looking at a return in the second half of May. Maybe the week of May 22nd? The Yankees have a six-game homestand that week and that’s probably the earliest we’ll see him. First things first though. Severino has to get healthy and complete his rehab work. His early throwing is going well. Still a ways to go though.

Trivino suffers setback

Might be a while until we see Lou Trivino again. Trivino had renewed discomfort in his elbow following a recent throwing session and will see the doctor Wednesday. He’s been sidelined with an elbow ligament sprain since Spring Training. The Yankees were hopeful he would be able to return sometime next month. Seems unlikely now.

“Didn’t feel anything in the lives, but the next couple days were not how he should have been feeling,” Boon told Joyce. “I mean, it’s not good that he had to get shut down from where he was in a good spot and feeling good. So we’ll see.”

With the caveat that we don’t know what’s up with Trivino yet, good gravy what a cursed trade. The Yankees have gotten a total of 65.2 innings from Trivino and Frankie Montas, postseason included, and if Trivino needs Tommy John surgery (it is a ligament injury, after all), then there’s a good chance neither guy will pitch in 2023, and most likely neither will be a Yankees in 2024. Sheesh.

(Trivino will be arbitration-eligible next season, but if he has Tommy John surgery, the Yankees won’t pay him to spend his final year of team control rehabbing. They non-tendered Nathan Eovaldi and Tommy Kahnle under the same circumstances.)

Hopefully this is just a hiccup and Trivino can resume throwing soon and join the bullpen later this season. But I’ve done this long enough to know that when a guy rehabbing an elbow ligament injury has renewed discomfort, it usually means something bad. Not always, but often. The bullpen has been pretty good without Trivino. Still, the more healthy arms, the better.

Miscellany

Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow) started a throwing program Friday. He’s playing catch now, then he’ll throw in the bullpen, then he’ll face hitters, then he’ll pitch in rehab games. The usual. Loáisiga is still several weeks away. “I know he was doing good the last several days. Excited for him to start his way back,” Boone told Sanchez over the weekend … Kahnle (biceps) is with the Yankees on the road trip and will throw in the bullpen for the first time later this week. He’s on the 60-day injured list and can’t be activated until May 29th, but at least things are moving in the right direction … Ben Rortvedt, who may or may not exist, began a rehab assignment with Low-A Tampa on Friday. He is 3-for-9 with two doubles through three games, and he’s DHed twice and caught once (five innings). Rortvedt had surgery to treat an aneurysm near his shoulder last month and, all jokes aside, I’m glad he’s doing well. Aneurysms are serious stuff. Once up to speed, it’s safe to assume Rortvedt will be optioned to Triple-A Scranton and await his turn as the third catcher. Hopefully he can stay on the field the rest of the season. It’s been one injury after the other since the trade … And finally, Austin Wells will begin taking live at-bats later this week, reports Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d). Wells did not play at all in Spring Training because of a broken rib, so he might spend 2-3 weeks in Extended Spring Training before joining one of the minor league affiliates. At least now we know he’s making progress with his recovery.

4. Prospect thoughts. High-A Tampa and Clearwater (Phillies) wrapped up their series Sunday and the benches cleared after three Tampa pitchers hit four batters in the first four innings. It was a legit brawl with punches thrown. Here’s video. I imagine suspensions are coming, though no notable prospects were ejected from the game. With that out of the way, here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Domínguez’s Double-A struggles

Two weeks into the season OF Jasson Domínguez is 3-for-39 (.077) with a homer (video), 15 walks (27.3%!) and 17 strikeouts (30.9%) in 13 games with Double-A Somerset. Domínguez mashed in the Double-A Eastern League Championship Series last year (7-for-13 with three homers in three games), though his overall body of work with Somerset has not been good dating back to last season.

That body of work is all of 22 games (postseason included) spread across two seasons, so to me this is a slow start more than a reason to panic. If Domínguez is hitting like this in June, then  we can worry. On April 25th? Nah. We don’t have Statcast data for Double-A, so I can’t dig into the contact and plate discipline numbers. All we have is what the Yankees tell us. Here’s what minor league hitting coordinator Joe Migliaccio told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) recently:

“I think at this point in the season we’re really just looking for what his trends are telling us,” Migliaccio said. “Is he getting lucky? Is he getting unlucky? Is he expanding the zone? Is he not expanding the zone? So when we dive into it a little bit deeper, with just his time in Double A, his out-of-zone chase rate is still really good. His out-of-zone chase rate with two strikes is really, really good. And he’s also swinging in zone at a really high rate. So he’s doing a good thing in terms of what pitches he’s swinging at and what pitches he’s not swinging at. I think it’s been documented pretty well at this point but as he’s moved up levels, his swing decisions have gotten better. We’re continuing to see really good trends there.”

The sky high walk rate certainly suggests Domínguez is not chasing out of the zone. With a walk rate that high, I always wonder if the hitter is being passive more than disciplined, and letting hittable pitches go by. Migliaccio says Domínguez’s in-zone swing rate is really high and I can’t verify that given the lack of Statcast. So, we just have to take him at his word.

Domínguez is running an 11.6% swinging strike rate, which is better than the 12.6% Eastern League average, and his 30.9% strikeout rate is not astronomical. It’s high, but the league average is 25.0% down there. When you work as many deep counts as Domínguez has (based on his walk rate), you’re gonna find yourself in two-strike counts, and you'll strike out some. Plus Domínguez is the youngest player in the league. The 3-for-39 is ugly. The underlying numbers are a bit less scary.

Much like Anthony Volpe, Domínguez mashed in Spring Training and has started the regular season slowly. Funny how that happens, huh? The slow start may extend Domínguez's time in Double-A and delay a promotion to Triple-A, and thus make a big league call up later this year less likely, but I felt it was always unlikely anyway. Hopefully Domínguez picks it up soon. The Double-A season is two weeks old. I don’t think it’s time to worry yet.

Warren pushing for promotion

RHP Will Warren may find himself in Triple-A soon, and not just because the Yankees are short on upper level pitching depth and have an unimpressive Triple-A rotation. Warren, the team’s top pitching prospect, is getting rave reviews for his stuff and maturation in the early going this year. I’ve been told it looks like things clicked as far as command, mechanics, and pitchability.

Warren has an unsightly 4.97 ERA through three starts with Double-A Somerset, though there has been some defensive funny business behind him, and the more relevant numbers are the 39.6% strikeout rate (video), the zone rates on his sweeper and cutter, and the chase rate on his changeup (I was told they are improved, but we don’t have Statcast to confirm it). Warren’s executing at a higher level this year.

“I don’t think I’m going to do anything differently. It’s just stacking good pitches on top of good pitches,” Warren told Mike Ashmore recently. “We did add a cutter and a four-seam, so I guess I can pitch a little differently up in the zone now. I don’t think I did anything differently than I did last year. Just went into the offseason working out, eating, and trying to gain weight as always. I think that’s what helped me out there.”

Warren was just okay in 18 starts with Double-A Somerset last season, though he told Ashmore he wore down in the second half, so the Yankees adjusted his spring build up in an effort to keep him fresh and effective deeper into the season. I think we can safely assume they did in part to make sure he’s a big league option. Warren can’t help the Yankees if he’s running on fumes in August and September.

Warren’s path is similar to Ken Waldichuk’s. Waldichuk was dominant in seven High-A starts to begin 2021, then he was just okay in Double-A after being promoted. The Yankees sent him back to Double-A to begin 2022, he was great, and they bumped him up to Triple-A after six starts. Warren had eight great High-A starts to begin last year, was just okay in Double-A, and now he’s shoving after starting this season back in Double-A. It’s very Waldichukian.

I don’t think Warren will spend much more time in Triple-A. Maybe another 3-5 starts? I think he’s in Scranton before the end of May. The reviews have been glowing since Spring Training, and it’s not like the Yankees are overflowing with pitching prospects in Triple-A. If nothing else, it has been a very positive start to 2023 for Warren, 4.97 ERA be damned.

Checking in on Dunham

With Oswald Peraza in MLB, OF Elijah Dunham is the best position player prospect on Triple-A Scranton’s roster, and he’s been okay in the early going: .257/.342/.386 (90 wRC+) with 11.4% walks and 20.3% strikeouts. Dunham, a lefty hitter, is hitting .279/.362/.426 against righties and .111/.200/.111 against lefties. He had a large platoon split in Double-A last year too.

This is very likely small sample size noise, but Dunham’s swing and exit velocity heat maps made me a chuckle:

Exit velocity says he’s a low ball hitter and yet Dunham does most of his swinging on pitches up in the zone. Bit of a disconnect there, Elijah. Again, this is likely a small sample thing (he has 79 plate appearances and 54 batted balls), but it’s still kinda funny. Dunham puts the biggest charge into pitches down in the zone and yet he swings at those pitches infrequently.

Anyway, given the current state of the big league offense and the left field position, is it worth calling Dunham up to see whether he can give the Yankees a shot in the arm? Eh, I don’t think so. Dunham has not stood out in the early going and he’s barely played above Double-A. I think he’s better than Willie Calhoun, or at least more well-rounded, but that’s a low bar (Estevan Florial clears it too and he’s thoroughly outhit Dunham this year: .313/.522/.656 and 201 wRC+).

Also, we have to consider the 40-man roster. Once Dunham goes on the 40-man, he stays on the 40-man. The Yankees aren’t putting him on waivers, so Dunham ties up a spot permanently. They could call up, say, Jake Bauers, and then designate him later without worrying about losing him on waivers. You can’t do that with Dunham. Roster flexibility matters.

In a few weeks we can revisit Dunham as a call up candidate. And, in a few weeks, I hope we don’t have to revisit Dunham as a call up candidate because Oswaldo Cabrera starts hitting and/or the Yankees have acquired a new left fielder. It’s too early to think about Dunham as an MLB option, I think. Let him get at-bats and get settled in at Triple-A, and really force the issue.

Miscellany

After going 9-for-18 with three doubles and three homers in his first four games, OF Spencer Jones is 5-for-37 (.135) with 18 strikeouts (42.9%) in nine games since. His overall season line sits at .255/.306/.509 (109 wRC+) with 35.5% strikeouts. Given his large strike zone, his lack of experience relative to other first round college hitters, and the jump straight to High-A, yeah, Jones will be prone to strikeout-filled slumps. Just keep them short please, Spencer … OF Anthony Hall, who missed the start of the season following wrist surgery in January, is back in action. Last year’s fourth round pick joined Low-A Tampa last week and is 2-for-15 in four games. His first pro hit was a walk-off homer … RHP Justin Lange update: he walked four and hit a batter in one inning in his last start. He looked great in his first two starts and then that happened. This might just be the way it goes with Lange at this stage in his development. Some days he dominates and some days he walks half the batters he faces, similar to Dellin Betances circa 2008 … And finally, the Yankees have put RHP Hayden Merda in the rotation. Last year’s 17th round pick was a reliever throughout college and he had a 37.2% strikeout rate with top of the line pitch data last spring. His first two starts with Low-A Tampa have been so-so (9 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 7 K) and he's sat 91-94 mph, but hey, why not try starting him? If things aren’t working out in a few weeks, it’ll be easy to put Merda back in the bullpen. You can never know how these dudes will take to starting unless you try it. Low-A is the place to do it.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)