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RAB Thoughts
RAB Thoughts

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April 17th, 2023: Cole, Volpe, Holmes, Germán, Stanton, Rays, Prospects

The four-series winning streak to begin the season came to an end this past weekend, though the Yankees are the only team in baseball to not lose a series this year, so that’s something. Series splits are better than series losses. Anyway, here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday evening since the Yankees have an off-day and there’s no reason to wait to hit publish.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Twins scored nine runs Thursday in what was essentially a once in a generation first inning (the Yankees last allowed nine runs in the first inning in 2000), then they scored seven runs total the rest of the series. Despite all the injuries and bullpen hiccups and Clarke Schmidtiness, the Yankees entered play Monday third in runs allowed per game (3.06), fourth in ERA (3.04), third in ERA+ (150), second in FIP (3.46), and third in pitching WAR (+2.9). They’ve allowed no more than three runs in 11 of their 16 games. That’ll work, gentlemen. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Gerrit the Great

Gerrit Cole saw those preseason lists ranking him outside baseball’s top 10 starters (like this one) and took it personally. Cole held the Twins to two singles and a walk in Sunday’s complete game shutout (video). Minnesota had one runner advance as far as second base. Cole threw 109 pitches: 84 in the first six innings and only 25 in the final three.

“We had a good approach, good command,” Cole told Bryan Hoch after the game. “You’re giving yourself a chance to have success when you’re executing so many pitches.”

Cole struck out 10 and held the Twins to an 84.9 mph average exit velocity, so it was no contact or weak contact. He got at least four swings and misses with three different pitches (fastball, curveball, slider) and 14 of the 29 batters he faced saw no more than three pitches. Cole missed an Immaculate Inning by one stinkin’ pitch in the fourth inning. He was dominant and efficient.

Sunday was the first nine-inning shutout by a Yankee since Cole’s 129-pitch effort in Houston two years ago, which I’m sure you remember (Nestor Cortes had a rain-shortened six-inning shutout last year). It was the first nine-inning shutout by any pitcher at Yankee Stadium since Masahiro Tanaka two-hit the Rays on June 16th, 2019. Before Tanaka? Brandon McCarthy in 2014!

Cole now has 23 double digit strikeout games as a Yankee – Corbin Burnes is the only other pitcher with even 20 double digit strikeout games since 2020, and eight of those 20 came during his Cy Young season in 2021, when pitchers still hit – tying Ron Guidry’s franchise record. Cole and Guidry pitched in much different eras, but still. Cole is gonna wind up the franchise leader in double digit strikeout games by a magnitude of like three.

Four starts into 2023, Cole has yet to surrender a home run, which is a welcome development after leading the league with 33 dingers allowed a year ago. This is the first time Cole has gone four straight starts without a homer since April 2021, when he went five straight. He’ll give up a home run at some point, it’s inevitable, but right now the ball is staying in the park.

Cole has been locked in since Day 1 of Spring Training. He looked fantastic all throughout camp and he’s sitting on a 0.95 ERA (1.91 FIP) with a 32.0% strikeout rate four starts into 2023. It is very early, but this is what the start of a Cy Young season looks like. Heck, given the state of the rotation (i.e. injured), we could say this is what the start of an MVP season looks like. What a performance Sunday. What a season thus far.

“Even going into this year, I think he’s probably been on some level underrated. Underappreciated,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “He’s great. He’s a great pitcher that I believe is going to end up in Cooperstown one day. He’s so responsible and diligent, and cares about his profession, his team, his teammates. He’s all in.”

Volpe settling in (maybe, possibly, hopefully)

Seven years ago Tyler Austin hit his first big league home run in his first at-bat, then four pitches later Aaron Judge socked his first big league homer in his first at-bat. On Friday, Anthony Volpe hit his first career home run, then Judge went deep on literally the next pitch. That is not very captainly behavior. Judge won’t let anyone else have the spotlight. Rude.

“It was a pretty special moment that I got to share with the rest of the guys. I don’t think it really sunk in until an inning or two later,” Volpe told Hoch about his first career homer (video). It wasn’t a middle-middle cookie either. Volpe got to an 95.3 mph heater at the top of the zone and on the inner half. He couldn't extend his arms at all:

The Orioles bullied Volpe with elevated fastballs last weekend, so it was nice to see him turn one around. At 21 years and 351 days, Volpe is the third youngest player to hit a leadoff homer as a Yankee, behind only Mickey Mantle (19 years and 328 days in 1951) and Mark Koenig (21 years and 278 days in 1926). The last five Yankees younger than Volpe to hit a homer is a fun little list: Gleyber Torres, Jesus Montero, Melky Cabrera, Derek Jeter, and Deion Sanders.

Since the start of the Guardians series Volpe is 5-for-19 (.263) with a double, a homer, three walks, five strikeouts, and four steals in four attempts. He reached base seven times in the Twins series and on Saturday became the first Yankee with three steals in a game since Ichiro Suzuki in 2012. The at-bats are getting a bit better, the chase rate and swinging strike rate are starting to trend down …

… and Volpe looks more comfortable at the plate in general. I’m not saying he’s locked in and about to go on a tear (would be cool!). I’m just saying Volpe looks a little calmer and less overmatched than he did even a week ago. This game is hard, man. It will humble even the most talented players. We’re starting to see some signs of life from Volpe’s bat.

“Regardless of any of the results, I definitely feel a lot better in the box,” Volpe told Hoch. “A lot better on my checks, a lot better on my takes. As long as the process is good and I feel like I’m making adjustments, the results and everything else will take care of itself.”

(After a few misplays during that first homestand, Volpe’s defense has been rock solid if not above average. He’s sure-handed and I don’t get antsy when the ball is hit his way. Also, Volpe’s sluggish start is an 81 wRC+. Isiah Kiner-Falefa had an 84 wRC+ last year.)

Holmes in the eighth

Boone said he would use Clay Holmes in the eighth inning in certain situations and one of those situations presented itself Friday. With the Yankees nursing a 3-2 lead, Boone went to Holmes against Michael Taylor, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa. Three righties and Minnesota’s two best hitters were due up in a one-run game. That’s when you should use your best righty reliever.

The move was correct, I 100% thought tit was a Holmes spot, but Holmes did not do the job. He allowed a bloop single to Taylor, walked Buxton on six pitches in what was a pretty non-competitive at-bat, then allowed the go-ahead two-run double to Correa. Holmes caught too much of the plate with a 98.0 mph sinker …

… and Correa’s good enough and strong enough to muscle that ball the other way. Shoutout to the Yankees for taking on Josh Donaldson’s contract so the Twins could afford Correa. Since that brilliant decision, Correa’s hit .308/.372/.744 (209 wRC+) in 10 games against the Yankees. He has four home runs at Yankee Stadium the last two years. Yankees shortstops have two. For real. (Kiner-Falefa hit two homers in the Bronx last year, but one was as a third baseman.)

“The boos for me are just like putting gasoline in your Ferrari,” Correa told Ryan Dunleavy. “I love it.”

ANYWAY, I thought going to Holmes in the eighth inning was the correct move. I’m no Boone fan, but that was the right decision and it’s on the player to perform, and Holmes did not. The Buxton walk was a killer and you can’t make a two-strike mistake like that to Correa. The offense only scored three runs that night, which is another problem in and of itself, but in the end, the Yankees handed a one-run lead to the bullpen with six outs to go. You’re supposed to win those games.

Holmes has had three shaky outings and four very good outings in the early going, a ratio that is not all that good for a high leverage reliever. His stuff is fine. I mean, the pitch before Correa’s double was hellacious:

The problem is location and we saw it Friday. Holmes did not locate on the walk to Buxton and he did not locate on the double by Correa. He missed his spots both inside and outside the zone. A double whammy. For his first calendar year as a Yankee, Holmes’ execution was on point. It was absolutely elite. It has been lacking since last August. It’s becoming a problem.

“It’s pretty frustrating when I find myself in pretty good counts but just didn’t finish batters off,” Holmes told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d). “... I believe in my stuff and where I’m at. I think it’s just a matter of finding that groove and making pitches when I need to. I don’t feel like I’m far off. I feel like the stuff is there, and I’m confident in where that stuff is.”

I applaud Boone for using Holmes (theoretically his best reliever) against Minnesota’s best hitters in the eighth inning of a one-run game rather than holding him back for a traditional save situation in the ninth. Smart move. It didn’t work, but that’s on Holmes more than Boone to me. Not everything is the manager’s fault. The player just failed to do his job.

Germán’s sticky situation

Been a weird start to the season, rules-wise. Two weekends ago Nestor Cortes had to black out the 44 on his glove in Baltimore, then there was the delayed replay fiasco in Cleveland last week. On Saturday, Domingo Germán had too much rosin on his pitching hand. Apparently you can have too much rosin on your hand even though it’s a legal substance. Huh.

The scene: Germán had a routine foreign substance check after the third inning Saturday. The umpires determined he had too much rosin on his hand, so they told him to wash it off. When he came out for the fourth, they checked him again, and they felt he still had too much rosin on his pinky. Here’s what crew chief James Hoye told Randy Miller (subs. req’d):

“Based on our procedures, I bought in (second base umpire) D.J. (Reyburn) and the crew because now it’s a second opinion to make sure we’re all on the same page, whether it’s actually sticky foreign substance that affects the flight of the ball or a (legal) tacky that would probably come from a rosin bag.
“D.J. felt (German’s) hand and felt the tackiness also, but it was a lot less than when we went off the mound the first time. So (German) had definitely tried to clean whatever rosin that was there.
“So we got together and said, ‘Is this a foreign substance based on the foreign substance rule that affects the baseball? We all agreed no. In that situation, it was more of a directive by me that he didn’t clean it all the way, but it wasn’t a foreign substance that affected the flight of the ball.
“If it’s tackiness, which usually comes from a rosin, we would not eject. So, in that situation there, this was not an ejectable offense because we didn’t feel it rose to the foreign substance standard where it affected his pitching.”

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed he did not request a check on Germán nor did he suspect a foreign substance. He was miffed because Germán did not fully comply with the directive to wash his hands, and Baldelli thought he should have been ejected. He wound up getting ejected himself. Honestly, I can’t blame him for being upset.

“Their pitcher was asked to do something pertaining to a rule that’s been a focal point of a lot of discussion,” Baldelli told Do-Hyoung Park. “And he failed to do what he was asked to do: rid himself of something that he was carrying on his hand. That’s all.”

There was no meaningful change to Germán’s spin rates Saturday, either overall or before and after the rosin situation. That doesn’t mean Germán didn’t cheat! All we can say for sure is he cheated no more or no less than usual, and it’s possible his baseline level of cheating is zero. We can never really know for sure.

The sticky stuff rules are black and white. If you are caught with something suspected to be an foreign substance, it’s an automatic ejection and a 10-game suspension. The player can appeal the suspension, but if they find something on you, you get tossed. As Hoye said, whatever they found on Germán did not rise to the “foreign substance standard where it affected his pitching.” Too much rosin. I didn’t know what was possible, but apparently it is.

“The discussion was intense. There was a moment there where maybe I felt that things were going to get out of hand,” Germán told Bryan Hoch. “But I was able to explain and tell them, I have a rosin bag that’s in the area of the dugout where I sit all the time. He was able to talk that over, understand and reason. He listened to what I was saying, and they said, ‘okay, fine.’”

For Germán, that was a great bounce back start following that five-walk mess in Cleveland. He retired the first 16 batters he faced and struck out a career high 11, and held the Twins to one run on two singles and one double in 6.1 innings. In the No. 5 Starter poll, I noted Germán has a knack for random outstanding starts. This was one of them. Good stuff, Domingo.

“We wanted to adjust mechanically and use my lanes better,” Germán told Hoch. “We wanted to make sure if I’m landing and going inside, that I keep that direction so the pitches can be sharper. I think we did that today.”

Miscellany

I don’t want to make this an every post thing, but I do want to note one more time that Mike King’s velocity continued to trend upward Saturday:

King is getting there. He’s not where he was last season, but we’re seeing some progress. I will say it again: I hope King is just behind a little bit following the elbow injury and an offseason spent mostly rehabbing, and he’ll round into form soon … It feels like Boone doesn’t know what to do with Ron Marinaccio. He warmed up in the seventh inning Friday in case Cortes ran into trouble, but the top of the order was coming up and Boone wanted Holmes for that part of the lineup. Marinaccio warmed up in the eighth inning Saturday with the Yankees batting and already leading 6-1, then he sat down and King finished out the game despite no change in score. Holmes, King, and Wandy Peralta are Boone’s go-to guys in the late innings of close games. Marinaccio is the No. 4 with no real defined role, it seems. Not worried about it or anything. Just an observation. With the way these things go, Marinaccio will probably pitch four times in the next six games, all in high leverage situations … Anthony Rizzo is hitting .315/.406/.574 (172 wRC+) and here is the spray chart of his hits. As a reminder, this shows where the ball landed, not where it is fielded:

I went through and watched all the videos. Here’s a reel of the hits that I think would have been outs with the shift. Brandon Crawford got to the first one but couldn’t complete the play. He started on the shortstop side of second base and had to cross over to the other side of the bag. With the shift, Crawford’s probably standing right where the ball is hit. Turn those four singles into outs and Rizzo’s slash line is .241/.344/.500. Of course, Rizzo may not have had the same approach with the shift, so who really knows. Left-handed batters have a .289 BABIP in the early going. It was .283 last year. A little boost, but nothing too crazy … Watching Jazz Chisholm in center field has made me appreciate Oswaldo Cabrera’s seamless transition to the outfield. Chisholm has had quite a bit of trouble out there and I don’t want to drag him. He’s trying his best, but it’s a new position and he didn’t have much time to prepare. It’s hard. The Yankees stuck Cabrera in the outfield with about five minutes of experience last year and he looked like he played it his entire life. His baseball instincts are so good … And finally, Buxton went 0-for-12 with 10 strikeouts this past weekend. The Yankees aren’t perfect, but when they pick up on a guy’s weakness(es) and execute, they’ll put him six feet under for a series.

2. Stanton injured. The baseball season doesn’t really start until Giancarlo Stanton lands on the injured list. Stanton was placed on the injured list with a left hamstring strain, the Yankees announced Sunday. He hurt himself legging out that rocket double Saturday (video). It was a weird time to remove him for a pinch-hitter and yeah, the hamstring explains it.

“He was moving around okay after the game, but he definitely felt like it was an IL (situation) before even getting the MRI,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch on Sunday. “... He’s got an awesome build and physique. He works very hard to try and avoid these things, but unfortunately it is something that’s happened with him.”

Stanton went for the MRI on Sunday afternoon. The Yankees did not have an update after the game, plus Monday is an off-day, so we won’t get official word until Tuesday. Marly Rivera reports Stanton has a Grade 2 strain though. That’s usually 4-6 weeks and sometimes as many as 8-10 weeks. If it is indeed Grade 2 strain, Stanton will be out a good long while. Sucks.

Giancarlo was hitting .269/.296/.558 (129 wRC+) with four home runs before going on the injured list. The OBP wasn’t there, but the power and hit-the-snot-out-of-the-ball-ability was. Stanton married a 95.9 mph average exit velocity and 19.5% barrel rate with a 20.4% strikeout rate before getting hurt. That’ll play. Or, rather, it would have continued playing had he not gotten hurt.

A series of lower body injuries limited Stanton to 290 of 546 possible regular season games from 2019-22, or 53%, and last year he played 110 games around ankle and Achilles trouble. He hit only .166/.272/.425 (99 wRC+) in nearly 300 plate appearances after returning from the injured list in June. Stanton getting hurt: bad. Stanton staying healthy and not hitting: worse.

Despite the slog that was the final three months last year, the Yankees did not add to the offense in the offseason. The offseason amounted to “hope everyone stays healthy and whichever rookie shortstop we pick hits right away,” and that isn’t going great. Stanton’s hurt, Harrison Bader’s hurt, Josh Donaldson is hurt, DJ LeMahieu missed a few games with a tight quad last week, etc. The season isn’t even three weeks old yet!

The Yankees entered play Monday ranked 19th in the league in runs scored per game (4.62), 11th in OPS+ (104), and 11th in wRC+ (105). The lineup is extremely top heavy:

Franchy Cordero is coming back to Earth (1-for-11 with five strikeouts in the Twins series), Oswaldo Cabrera hasn't hit, Anthony Volpe is still settling in at the big league level, and Aaron Hicks and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are a combined 5-for-44 (.114) off the bench. There is no depth to this lineup behind LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres.

The Yankees went with Volpe at leadoff and LeMahieu in the No. 5 spot Sunday, and given the available personnel, I like that alignment. Volpe’s at-bats are getting better and, if there is such a thing as lineup protection, hitting in front of Judge is as cushy a lineup spot as you'll find in the league. I’ve always liked LeMahieu’s high contact bat in a middle of the order run producing spot too. (LeMahieu in the No. 5 spot certainly paid off Sunday.)

As for the DH spot, the Yankees will do what they always do when Stanton gets hurt, and rotate players through. I’m sure Willie Calhoun will get a bunch of DH starts (ehhh) with Judge, LeMahieu, Rizzo, Torres, and eventually Donaldson cycling through as well. Filling the DH spot is never a problem. The problem is a not great lineup is now worse without Giancarlo.

Stanton played the outfield five times in his 15 healthy games and, based on last season, he may not see much time out there when he returns. After returning from the injured list last June, he played the outfield 19 times the rest of the season, and just one once after the All-Star break. This is how it goes with Stanton. The Yankees say they want to play him in the outfield more often, he plays some outfield, he gets hurt, then he’s a full-time DH by the end of the year.

The Yankees called up Oswald Peraza to replace Stanton and he probably won’t be around long. Donaldson will play a rehab game with Double-A Somerset on Tuesday and, if that goes well, he'll be activated Wednesday. Figure Peraza goes down then. Peraza was called up because he and Everson Pereira are the only healthy 40-man roster players in the minors, and it’s not worth a 40-man move for a two-game, three-day big league stint.

(I would love to know how the Yankees plan to get Peraza into the MLB lineup this season without exposing him to third base in Triple-A. Are they just gonna wait for a middle infielder to get hurt while simultaneously hoping no one gets hurt?)

It’s a little too early to talk about trade candidates. Trade talks won't pick up for a few weeks. I mentioned a few DH trade candidates in a mailbag last month, so I will refer you back to that. You know, if Stanton is out long-term, and with Frankie Montas unlikely to be a factor this season, I wonder if there’s a rental player on a bad to mediocre team who could solve the DH and rotation problems all by himself. Hmmm, does such a player exist?

Losing Stanton to a lower body injury stinks and is something the Yankees can’t really afford, but it’s not surprising either. Giancarlo gets hurt a lot. It is what it is, and the Yankees didn’t do a whole lot to improve their lineup depth over the winter. Hopefully Stanton comes back as quickly as possible and mashes once he returns. Recent history suggests neither may happen.

“I know he’s really frustrated, but it’s an opportunity for people we have confidence in,” Boone told Hoch. “We can mix and match, and get some other people back here in the next couple of days and the next couple of weeks. We’ve got to make do.”

3. On the Rays and 13-0. I feel compelled to talk about the Rays because, well, they’re 14-2, and they started the season with 13 consecutive wins. Here are the longest winning streaks to begin a season in baseball history:

1. 1884 St. Louis Maroons: 20-0 (finished 94-19)
t-2. 2023 Tampa Bay Rays: 13-0
t-2. 1987 Milwaukee Brewers: 13-0 (finished 91-71)
t-2. 1982 Atlanta Braves: 13-0 (finished 89-73)
5. 1981 Oakland Athletics: 11-0 (finished 64-45)

Baseball was a very different game in 1884. Back then the pitcher’s job was to give the batter something to hit. The game was played between the hitter and the fielders, and the pitcher facilitated the action. Tampa is tied with the 1982 Braves and 1987 Brewers for the longest season-opening winning streaks in modern baseball history.

“Wow, what a start,” Aaron Boone told Tom Withers in Cleveland last week. “I’m not surprised. I thought heading into this year that they were really good from a pitching and where their roster is at position-player wise. I don’t think you ever expect anyone to start 11-0, but we also know they’re an excellent team.”

The Rays are 14-2 and yes, they’ve played terrible competition. The Tigers, Nationals, Athletics, Red Sox, and Blue Jays so far, with the Reds up next. Good grief. What a draw. The Rays have had an easy schedule, maybe the easiest schedule to start a season ever, but you can only play the schedule you’re given. Credit to Tampa for capitalizing.

Also, the Rays steamrolled those teams. They have a +72 run differential (the Brewers are second at +28 and the Yankees third at +25) and the average score during their 13-0 start was 7.8-2.3. Winning 13 straight games and outscoring your opponents that much is impressive any time of year and against any competition. Even awful teams are gonna win 50-something games each year. They don’t just roll over.

I’ve been doing this long enough to know making sweeping declarations about a team or a player less than three weeks into the season is unwise. I thought the Astros and Braves were the best teams in baseball coming into the season and I still think that, though Houston looks a bit vulnerable (I hope). I don’t think this start, as impressive as it is, vaults Tampa to best team in baseball status yet.

What the Rays have done is bank a lot of wins and improve their postseason odds, their AL East title odds, and their odds of securing a Wild Card Series bye. That’s bad news for the Yankees, a division rival. The season is not even a month old, but this is suboptimal:

It took only 84 wins to get to the postseason in the American League last year. Even if we say it will take 89 wins this year, Tampa only needs to go 75-71 the rest of the way to get there. They built themselves a nice big cushion and can better weather the inevitable 10-20 stretch or whatever it is. Or maybe that stretch never comes and they win 118 games. Who knows?

As for the Yankees, I mean, what are they supposed to do? They don’t play Tampa until May 5th. All the Yankees can do is play their games. They still have all 13 games remaining with the Rays and there’s 146 games remaining overall. The Rays started 13-0 and the Yankees are “only” four games back in the division. Is it weird to say four games back is a good outcome given Tampa’s start?

The Rays are really good and they’ve done more than a team could reasonably be expected to do against that schedule. Going 13-0 against any collection of teams isn’t easy, and if the roles were reversed and the Yankees went 13-0 against that schedule, we’d all be thrilled. Eventually the Yankees will get their crack at Tampa. Their hot start has been annoying though. For now, that’s all it is, a hot start. Still plenty of season to play.

4. Prospect thoughts. OF Spencer Jones watch: .344/.405/.781 (199 wRC+) with five doubles and three homers in eight games with High-A Hudson Valley. The bad: 35.1% strikeouts. Jones isn’t swinging and missing excessively (13.3% swinging strike rate), so it could be he’s taking a lot of called strike threes, or he’s been a bit too passive and gone to too many two-strike counts. Wish we had Statcast at that level so I could tell you. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Lange’s new fastballs

The Yankees acquired RHP Justin Lange in the Luke Voit trade with the Padres and the No. 34 pick in the 2020 draft had a forgettable debut in the organization: 6.44 ERA (4.62 FIP) with 29.7% strikeouts and 17.4% walks in 36.1 rookie ball innings a year ago. Lange’s first two starts with Low-A Tampa this year have been promising:

Lange’s gotten 34 swings and misses on 163 total pitches, or an absurd 20.9% swinging strike rate. He’s also debuted a sinker and a cut fastball. Lange was a four-seamer/slider/sometimes changeup pitcher at the time of the 2020 draft and also at the time of the trade. This has been his pitch mix through two starts with the Tarpons:

Roughly 75% sinkers and cutters. Both pitches are works in progress (Lange gets more horizontal movement on his sinker than Clay Holmes and Mike King, but also much less sink) which is to be expected with new pitches. He’s a Single-A kid learning two new pitches. Not exactly a shock Lange hasn’t perfected them yet.

I don’t have much more to say about Lange right now. I just wanted to mention he’s opened the season with two strong starts and that the Yankees have tweaked his pitch mix. Lange will play just about the entire season at age 21 and he’s very talented. He went No. 34 overall and got a $2M bonus for a reason. Perhaps the early days of 2023 are a sign it’s starting to come together.

Krook’s ground ball dominance

The Yankees moved RHP Deivi García and LHP Matt Krook into multi-inning bullpen roles this season and Deivi has been mostly fine (11.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 6 BB, 11 K). Nothing notable about his performance or stuff in the early going. Krook’s surface numbers are mostly fine as well (8 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 13 K), but this is nutso:

In a tiny sample Krook is running 69.2% ground ball rate and a 72.6 mph average exit velocity. Keeping the ball on the ground is nothing new. Krook had a 62.7% ground ball rate in 2021 and it was 55.7% last year. Now we have Triple-A Statcast and can see how well Krook limits hard contact. That was the book on him the last two years. Now we have the numbers.

Krook is already 28 and this is his third straight season with the RailRiders. The Yankees put him on the 40-man roster in October and he’ll get a look in the bullpen eventually. They have a lot of injuries and Krook has gotten his feet wet in his new role, and the Yankees start a stretch of 16 games in 16 days Tuesday. Chances are they’ll need a long reliever at some point in those 16 days, and it’s kinda hard to overlook this ability to generate weak grounders.

Will Krook throw enough strikes to be a reliable big league contributor (career 13.1% walk rate in Triple-A)? Who knows. Probably not, but maybe. The Yankees and other teams like to build their bullpens around pitchers with a single elite pitch or an elite skill, and Krook’s ability to get weak ground balls qualifies as elite at the Triple-A level. He’s doing what he needs to do to get a call up early this season.

“He’s a real problem for lefties,” Aaron Boone told Mark Sanchez about Krook in Spring Training. “He’s an interesting guy, and if nothing else is a built-in problem for lefties.’’

Three notable players released

The Yankees released a handful of minor leaguers over the weekend and three are notable: C Nick Ciuffo, OF Ryder Green, and OF Raimfer Salinas. The Yankees signed Ciuffo last month to help cover for the catcher injuries. It was odd he wasn’t on an Opening Day roster, though he signed a bit late, and I thought maybe he stayed back in Tampa just to get a few more at-bats. Guess not.

Josh Breaux (elbow), Ben Rortvedt (aneurysm), and Austin Wells (rib) are all still hurt. Maybe releasing Ciuffo means one of those guys is coming back soon? Breaux just went on the 60-day injured list, so it won’t be him. Rortvedt was doing baseball things late last month. Maybe he’s close? It’s been a while since we’ve gotten an update on Wells. This is Week 6 of his 6-8 week timetable, though that estimate came from Wells, not the Yankees. I dunno.

Green and Salinas were quality prospects not too long ago. Green got close to a $1M bonus as a third round pick in 2018 and he made good progress in 2019, but he never got on track after the lost pandemic season, then he got hurt last season. He fell out of my top 30 prospects list this year. Now 22, Green has played only 50 career games above rookie ball, and none above Low-A.

The Yankees gave Salinas a $1.85M bonus in Dec. 2017. They signed Salinas and OF Antonio Cabello with the international bonus money they had left over when Shohei Ohtani decided to sign with the Angels. Cabello went to the Rangers in the Rougned Odor trade. Salinas fell out of my top 30 prospects last year and has played only 65 games above rookie ball, and none above Low-A. Prospects, eh? They’ll break your heart.

(Salinas got hit with an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension after being released too. He is the first player to get suspended for PEDs under the new minor league Collective Bargaining Agreement. Rough few days for him.)

Miscellany

Ugly line through three Triple-A starts for RHP Randy Vásquez: 11 IP, 18 H, 12 R, 8 BB, 15 K, 3 HR. That includes eight runs on seven hits and two walks in only 3.1 innings last time out. No reason to panic yet, this is Vásquez’s first taste of Triple-A, but he hasn’t positioned himself to be a call up candidate anytime soon … 3B Andrés Chaparro since his 0-for-29 start to the season: 11-for-26 (.423) with a double and six home runs. He worked an 18-pitch walk Sunday too (video). Giancarlo Stanton’s going to be out a while. If guys like Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero don’t cut it, maybe Chaparro hits his way to the Bronx at some point … 1B/OF Jake Bauers hit three home runs in the first game of Sunday’s doubleheader (video), all against Dylan Bundy, and he’s hitting .325/.481/.875 (224 wRC+) with 12 walks and seven strikeouts through 13 games with Triple-A Scranton. The top of the Triple-A barrel rate leaderboard is a hoot:

1. Jake Bauers, Yankees: 39.4%
2. Joey Votto, Reds: 33.3%
(Triple-A average: 17.2%)

(Votto has been on a rehab assignment following shoulder surgery last year.)

Exit velocity and Triple-A production (and hitting dudes like Dylan Bundy) has never been much of a problem for Bauers. He’s yet to translate that ability to the big leagues (.213/.307/.348 and 82 wRC+ in over 1,100 MLB plate appearances). The Yankees have helped a few Quad-A types level up, namely Gio Urshela, and maybe they did the same with Bauers. It’s too early to say. He is really mashing though, and with Stanton hurt, the Yankees have some at-bats open.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)

Comments

I haven't noticed that. I'll take a closer look next time they're on.

MikeD

Am I the only one who thinks that the video quality of the Amazon broadcasts is terrible?

Jingling Baby

Funny because I actually wasn't referring to IKF. The worst hitter in the league is Oswaldo Cabrera (well it's actually Christian Arroyo at .178 xwOBA, but Cabrera is a very close second among qualified hitters) I wasn't comparing 2023 IKF and 2023 Cabrera, but 2023 April Cabrera to 2022 April IKF. At this time last season I thought IKF would rebound to his career average of around 80 wRC+, as that was the hitter he had shown to be and there was no significant difference in batted ball profile. And IKF ended up doing exactly that. With Cabrera the sample size is too small to say his career average is what he is, and as you said he might adapt and improve. I'm definitely not saying stop playing him, but the Yankees shouldn't count on him swinging a league average bat any time soon.

chuangeUp

i mean, sure, Oswaldo has been pretty brutal at the plate. but which of the following lines is better? .091/ .091/ .091/ .182 -49 OPS+ .245/ .255/ .286/ .541 52 OPS+ you can hope that the 24 year old with less than 60 career games can improve. Oswaldo is sporting a 52%+ ground ball rate this year (comp'd to 30% last year). he hits fastballs well, and hopefully can adjust to off-speed & breaking pitches. IKF is a known entity, and that is - as you put it - literally the worst hitter in the league. either way, the Yanks need lineup help. to your point, there isn't a lot to love about the current options.

mike mousalis

Or maybe he should train more like a baseball player and less like a Mr. Universe contestant.

pkmuldy

100%. Even Boone seems to be kinda, sorta saying this in his usual mealy-mouthed way with the comment about Stanton having a "great physique." The guy is a part-time baseball player and a full time weight-lifting enthusiast. How has the team not forced him to change his conditioning program?

pkmuldy

seems like the yankees FO - specifically Hal’s payroll comments a few weeks ago - are straight out of the logan roy book of management. i imagine Hal saying something similar to logan’s “congrats on saying the biggest number, you f’ing moron” to steve cohen anytime cohen raises the mets payroll.

mike mousalis

replay confirms what boone, stanton, et al have said: the hamstring ‘grabbed’ when he was slowing down going into second. which he got to easily. maybe his hamstring is fine if he jogs out of the box immediately. maybe it was set to pull at that exact time. no way of us knowing at all. this is coming from someone who agrees it shouldn’t be too much to ask to run out of the box.

mike mousalis

New season, same story.... Every year and it's another Stanton injury. Maybe he needs to do less bulking and weights and more stretching and fluid movements to better prepare his body. In all seriousness though, they have the data and sports science from him being with the team for several years now. Can they not design a program or something to better understand how to avoid his injuries?? Big G is fun when he's on, but so frustrating because he's never reliable enough to stay healthy

Phil

He hit a ball 400 feet with a 4-1 lead late and it wasn’t a home run. If anything, I’m mad he ran hard at all given his history. Crush a single!

Zack

I really wish someone, somewhere would take a stand against this. Cabrera did the same thing the other day. Nothing new but it’s been infuriating for 20 years or more.

Jingling Baby

I can believe Cabrera will be better than literally the worst hitter in the league, but to what extent? He was never a top propect and was running a .287 xwOBA last year, which is pretty much IKF's career average.

chuangeUp

I think the difference is that there's a not unreasonable expectation that O-Cab will come around. Not so for IKF.

I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For

The offseason move that made the most sense was trading for Sean Murphy. Trevino would be a fine BUC and Murphy would've provided offense at a premium position. This would've provided them time to see what they had in LF, SS, CF, and 3B before addressing needs at the deadline. Much easier to obtain a corner OFer.

jody vukas

Even before the Stanton injury, the Yankees have been regularly playing 2 of the 10 worst quailified MLB hitters in their everyday lineup by xwOBA. Those two are not even named Anthony Volpe, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Aaron Hicks, or Willie Calhoun. Oswaldo Cabrera: .239 wOBA (47 wRC+) / .182 xwOBA Jose Trevino: .239 wOBA(47 wRC+) / .227 xwOBA Cabrera is getting a pass in a lot of these analysis for his defense and supposedly "balancing the lineup", exactly like IKF was at this time last season, except even IKF wasn't this terrible offensively then.

chuangeUp

The Stanton injury was extra frustrating because he stood there and watched the ball instead of even jogging out of the batter’s box. He only got hurt because he had to hustle after the ball hit the top of the wall. I know, I know, I’m the old man yelling at clouds but I really don’t think it’s unfun or too much to ask for a guy to at least jog to first while watching the ball.

Sandeep Motwani

The Stanton injury sucks so bad. It's not simply the loss of his bat; it's the mediocre-to-worse replacements we'll have the next few months. It's not even a "minor" one. They IL'd him before he even had the MRI. They could have waited until Tuesday. They didn't because they knew and so did he. So 6-8 weeks is the positive outlook, but it's more like 8-10 weeks, and Stanton does not recover quickly. I just hope when he does come back his leg is fully healthy, because if not, we'll have to witness the same bad ABs we got from him the second half of last year. Regardless, when he does return after a two to three months, they'll probably give him two rehab games and let him find his timing during MLB games! I'll be surprised if he's back before the All-Star break. Maybe give Peraza a chance? Nah, they'll send him back down and for perplexing reasons won't play him at 3B. Ok, I vented, I feel better. I'm convinced there's still a 45-50 HR season in Stanton if he can ever stay healthy. I'm also convinced we'll never see that.

MikeD

Two Miscellanys in one post, what a treat!

Shiven Gollapudi


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