April 14th, 2023: Cordero, Judge, Rodón, Severino, Bader, Mailbag

Would you believe this is only the fifth time in franchise history the Yankees have won their first four series of the season? They also did it in 1922, 1926, 2010, and 2020. I would have guessed a team that’s been around this long and has been this successful would have won their first four series, I dunno, 10-15 times? Shows what I know. Following Thursday’s beatdown the Yankees have to win the three remaining games with the Twins this weekend to tie the 1926 and 2010 teams with a franchise record five-series winning streak to begin the season. Tough, but doable. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. With his start at third base Thursday night, Oswaldo Cabrera has now played five positions in 13 team games (second base, third base, shortstop, left and right fields). He’s got another 151 games to play first base and center field to make one of my bold predictions come true. I believe in you, Oswaldo. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

The Franchyse

A new cult hero has arrived. Signed the day before Opening Day, Franchy Cordero swatted four home runs on the six-game road trip and they were all pretty meaningful. He’s hitting .250/.300/.714 (171 wRC+) in the super early going. “He’s been big for us. He hits them like the big boys. He mis-hit that ball, and (it still) went out,” Aaron Boone told Henry Palattella after Tuesday’s win.

Cordero is the sixth player to hit four homers in his first seven games as a Yankee and he joins a list of Some Guys: Matt Carpenter, Shelley Duncan, Barry Foote (five homers), Eric Hinske (five homers), and Dave Kingman. Power has never been a question with Cordero. He’s always been an exit velocity king, and when you leave pitches here …

… yeah, he’ll hit them a long way. Is Cordero the new Carpenter? Eh, I think the best we can say right now is it’s too early to tell. Carpenter famously overhauled his swing last offseason and had been a very productive player for a long time. He’d hit as many as 36 homers in a season, led his league in doubles (twice) and walks, finished as high as fourth in the MVP voting, etc.

Cordero has basically no track record of MLB success and he’s running close to a 50% whiff rate against breaking balls in the early going, and as far as we know there has been no swing adjustment. Hitting coach Dillon Lawson said they’ve let Franchy be Franchy. From Greg Joyce:

“He’s historically chased too much and missed too much,” hitting coach Dillon Lawson said. “Right now, if he can make enough contact in zone, then the power is going to play. I think he’s feeling, at this point in his career, he’s more comfortable with his routine and process in the cage, how he prepares for games. So we’re making sure we don’t change anything just for the sake of changing things because his uniform has changed.

“Let him be who he is and run with the things that are working and then sprinkle in a few things where we feel like we can still gain another edge. So that’s been the process so far. He’s fit in really well.”

It’s possible Cordero is a late bloomer. His contact rates are way up relative to his career norms, though it’s such a tiny sample that it’s hard to read anything into it. I think it’s more likely Cordero is the next Shelley Duncan (Quad-A masher having a hot streak) than the next Carpenter (former All-Star extending his career), but we’ll see. I hope I’m wrong.

For now, Franchy has mashed some important taters in the early going and they have helped the Yankees win games. The homers and wins are in the bank, and considering he signed for just $1M, Cordero is already worth the contract. The Yankees needed another lefty threat in the lineup and Franchy has been that guy in the early going. He’s been a nice little surprise.

"Good dude,” Gerrit Cole told Gary Phillips about Franchy. “Great vibes, positive, plays hard, and lays the wood.”

Judge’s on-base streak (and strikeouts)

I’ve found myself sitting here and thinking “Aaron Judge has been good but not amazing so far this year,” which is ridiculous because the guy is hitting .298/.382/.574 (163 wRC+). This is a me problem, not a Judge problem. He set the bar so incredibly high last year and I’m spoiled. I need to be better. Sorry, Aaron.

Anyway, Judge went 0-for-3 to end his on-base streak at 45 games Thursday night. It is the third longest by a Yankee since Joe DiMaggio’s franchise record 74-game on-base streak in 1941, which included his record 56-game hitting streak. Here are the longest since Joe D.:

1. Derek Jeter: 57 games (1998-99) (second longest in franchise history)
2. Alex Rodriguez: 53 games (2004) (third longest in franchise history)
3. Aaron Judge: 45 games (2022-23)
4. Several tied at 42 games (most recently Luke Voit from 2018-19)

Judge’s on-base streak is the longest since Tommy Pham had a 48-gamer spanning 2018 and 2019. The last player with a 50-game on-base streak was Shin-Soo Choo in 2018. He reached base safely in 52 straight games. Judge hit .366/.505/.758 and reached base 101 times during his 45-game streak. A .505 OBP for a little more than a quarter of the season. Wild.

(Judge has faced 29 pitchers in 55 plate appearances this season. Modern day hitting streaks and on-base streaks are so impressive because it seems like a hitter faces a new pitcher every at-bat, and they all have nasty stuff. Everyone throws mid-to-high-90s and has a breaking ball that is quite literally designed in a lab. Every base hit is a minor miracle to be cherished.)

The Captain is getting on base a lot this year and he’s also striking out a lot. Judge is running a 34.5% strikeout rate and a 17.6% swinging strike rate. It’s only been 13 games, so I’m not worried. This is just a statement of fact. Here are Judge’s swings and misses. He’s missed a lot of pitches in the zone, particularly non-fastballs:

Entering play Thursday, Judge had a 75.3% in-zone contact rate, his lowest since his debut in 2016. It’s also so early in the season that these rates are moving a few percentage points each game (it was 71.7% on Monday). To date though, yeah, Judge is striking out more and swinging and missing more. It’s happening and it’s something I hope he reins in soon.

The delayed replay incident

In the end, it did not matter because the Yankees came back to win the game, but man what a dumb and frustrating replay situation in the first inning Wednesday. Here's what the umpires said happened. Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m just relaying their explanation:

• Aaron Hicks made the sliding catch in center and doubled José Ramírez off second base to end the inning, or so we thought.
• The umpires conferred to discuss whether the force out was made at second before Steven Kwan crossed home plate. That is what they were discussing when the YES Network came back from commercial break.
• The umps determined Kwan did not cross the plate in time and the run did not score. At that point the play was officially ruled on, which started the Guardians’ 15-second timer to challenge the play.
• Guardians manager Terry Francona then challenged the catch in center field, which was (correctly) overturned.

“There was a very complex play. There was a lot of moving parts, so we wanted to make sure that we had everything,” umpire Chris Guccione told Randy Miller. “The (15-second challenge) clock never got to start. It started the in-between innings clock. So I’m glancing up there. It’s hard to glance at the clock and also explain to Boone what just happened. That was when (crew chief Larry Vanover) goes, ‘Hold on, we’ve got to fix this. Let’s get together as a crew.’ At that point, that’s where we got together.”

The explanation falls flat for me. The ruling at home plate doesn’t matter as far as challenging the catch in center field. It’s not like the Guardians would have been okay with the double play as long as Kwan crossed the plate in time. It was inning-ending double play vs. runners on the corners with one out. They were challenging the non-catch no matter what. Once the umpires ruled it a catch and the normal course of play ceased, the 15-second replay clock should start. You can sort out the runner at the plate after the decision or challenge or not challenge.

Every player on both teams left the field after the non-catch and the Progressive Field crew put the replay on the scoreboard because that’s what they scoreboard people do, they show replays of great plays. In real time, it looked like the umpires saw the replay on the scoreboard, realized they botched the call after the 15 seconds had elapsed, then huddled up and figured out a way to right the wrong. (I think Francona was confused more than knowingly circumventing the rules.)

“I just think it completely bailed them out,” Boone told Joyce. “It gets thrown up on the scoreboard – I’m not saying they looked at the scoreboard – obviously you could feel the emotion in the building. Then it’s them getting together to get it right and then going to Cleveland, I think, in the end bailing them out. I obviously took exception to it. They got the play right, I will say that. But there’s no way that the environment did not create, in my opinion, the end result.”

Thankfully the delayed replay was not costly and the Yankees won the game, and hopefully we won’t see anything like this in the future. Maybe the league will learn from it and tweak or clarify the 15-second rule. I won’t hold my breath. Dumb, frustrating replay situation that we can all forget about thanks to the win.

Miscellany

Not much to say about Jhony Brito’s disaster start Thursday. He was behind in the count too much and in the middle of the plate too much. I mean:

Middle-middle pitches won't play no matter how good your changeup is or how hard you throw. The real Brito is somewhere between his first two starts (one run in 10 innings) and his third start (seven runs in two-third of an inning). Learn from it, then shake it off and be better next time. You’re gonna have stinkers during the long 162-game season and that game was certainly a stinker … Mike King’s velocity line moved in the right direction! He halted a four-appearance velocity decline Wednesday. Granted, he’s still not throwing as hard as he did last year, but this is encouraging:

King has thrown two scoreless innings in each of his last two appearances, retiring 12 of the 13 batters he faced. He’s still not quite as dominant as he was last year, when he completely overwhelmed hitters, but he’s looked better the last two times out. Hopefully this is just taking King a little longer to round into form following the elbow injury and rehab-filled offseason … Clarke Schmidt allowed three runs in four innings Wednesday – “This is definitely a step in the right direction,” he said (video) – and lefties are now hitting .433/.500/.767 (.534 wOBA) with as many extra-base hits (four doubles and two homers) as strikeouts (six) against him. Schmidt’s next start will come against an Angels team that has only one left-handed batter of note (Shohei Ohtani). That lineup should be a good matchup for Schmidt … Definitely not a coincidence Willie Calhoun’s first outfield start came in Yankee Stadium’s right field. That’s where the Yankees hide poor defenders, dating back to when they stuck Lyle Overbay in the outfield. Thursday was Calhoun’s first career game in right field, by the way. He’d only played left field (and DH) up until this year. The Yankees worked him out there some in Spring Training, but real games are a different story. Also, Calhoun going from not being good enough to be on the roster last week to hitting fifth this week makes me wonder what goes into these decisions. Is he not good enough to be on the roster or good enough to hit behind Giancarlo Stanton? Shrug.

2. Injury updates. When DJ LeMahieu is out of the starting lineup twice in a three-game series, it usually means something is up, and sure enough he’s dealing with quad tightness. “He’s doing better,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch prior to Thursday’s game, which LeMahieu also did not play. I hope this doesn’t turn into one of those “play shorthanded for six days, then put him on the injured list” situations. Fingers crossed. Here are some other injury updates.

Rodón resumes throwing

Carlos Rodón (forearm) was scheduled to face hitters for the first time Monday, but he had some back stiffness, and the Yankees hit pause. Rodón instead played catch Tuesday, threw a light bullpen session Wednesday, and will throw for real Sunday or Monday. “He’s back in a good spot. Hopefully we’re moving good after a couple days of crankiness,” Boone told Greg Joyce.

At this point we can rule out a return in April. It has been more than a month since Rodón’s lone Grapefruit League appearance. He’ll need to go through something close to a full Spring Training to build up and get game ready, meaning 4-5 rehab starts. Maybe – maybe – Rodón and the Yankees can get away with three rehab starts, but why push it?

Jhony Brito has done fine work in two of his three starts. Clarke Schmidt has pitched poorly and burdened the bullpen each time out. Domingo Germán, it never matters how he performs. He’ll have a roster spot until the Sun swallows the Earth. The Yankees are walking a tightrope with their rotation. They really need to start getting healthy.

Severino returns to the mound

Luis Severino (lat) threw his first two bullpen sessions Monday and Thursday. He’s scheduled to throw again Monday. Severino said it’s been about two weeks since he last felt discomfort. “Feels really good. The trainers are the bosses of (my rehab). They know more about this than me. So whatever they tell me to do, that’s what we’re going to do,” Severino told Joyce.

Severino has been down long enough now that’ll probably need three rehab starts. Figure two more weeks of bullpens and live batting practice, then three rehab starts. That puts him on track to return sometime in May. Assuming no setbacks, of course, and unfortunately Severino has a knack for those. For now, he’s back up on a mound. Progress is being made.

Bader ramping up baseball activities

I’ll be honest, there are times I forget Harrison Bader exists. I guess that’s what happens when a guy plays as infrequently as he has since the trade. Anyway, Bader (oblique) has taken batting practice against a high velocity pitching machine and is ramping up his baseball work (he threw to the bases Thursday). He may start a rehab assignment sometime next week.

“It’s not just going to be a few days down there,” Boone told Max Goodman on Thursday. “He’s got to play some games and obviously get up to playing back-to-back and volume of innings and things like that. So I don’t know exactly what it is, but it’s not just going to be a couple of days.”

Franchy Cordero has a minor league option, but I can’t imagine the Yankees will send him down given his current dinger binge. Bader’s roster spot will come down to Willie Calhoun, who’s out of options, or Aaron Hicks, who’s signed through 2025. When in doubt, bet on the money. Let Bader get healthy first. We’ll worry about the roster spot when Bader completes his rehab and is ready to return, and not a second sooner. Good news that he’s doing well.

Miscellany

Lou Trivino (elbow) is scheduled to throw a two-inning bullpen session Friday. He’s nearing a rehab assignment. The Yankees said they expect Trivino to be out until May, but it seems like he has a chance (albeit a small one) to return before the end of April? We’ll see … Tommy Kahnle (biceps) has started playing catch again. No word on when he’ll get back up on a mound, but he’s on the 60-day injured list and can’t return until May 29th at the earliest anyway. Kahnle has plenty of time to rehab and get game ready … Josh Breaux (elbow) was transferred to Triple-A Scranton’s 60-day injured list earlier this week, so we won’t see him for a while. At the time of his injury last month, Boone said Breaux is "shut down for another week or two throwing-wise, and then hopefully it’ll be ramped up from there.” Guess he had a setback, or it was classic Boone downplaying an injury … Alex Mauricio, who opened eyes in minor league camp, was placed on Double-A Somerset’s 7-day injured list earlier this week. Not sure what’s wrong with him. His first two appearances with the Patriots were a mixed bag: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K. Hopefully Mauricio comes back soon and can build on his impressive spring.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Scratch Ian Happ off the outfield trade candidates list. He signed a three-year, $61M extension earlier this week. The contract covers 2024-26. Seems like a pretty good deal for the Cubbies, no? Either way, forget him. Happ is no longer a potential target come trade deadline time. At least I got that blurb published before it wound up in the Content Graveyard … And finally, Noah Woodward has a good breakdown of Jose Trevino’s framing and a possible adjustment he’s made for pitches at the top of the zone and above. Trevino rated as the game’s best pitch-framer last season, but he was below average on high pitches. That’s kind of a big deal because the Yankees have a lot of pitchers who like to elevate their fastball. Looks like Trevino has made a bit of an adjustment. Check that out. Good, insightful read.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jason asks: Can you explain why now we are calling some pitches a sweeper? How is it different than a slider/cutter? Also how does his slambio that Ian Hamilton throws fit into all this?

The sweeper is just a modern version of what us olds used to call a frisbee slider. Sweepers have more side-to-side break and less velocity than traditional sliders. Nestor Cortes switched from a traditional slider to a sweeper in Triple-A early in 2021, which helped him turn his career around (that and adding a cutter). Here’s his slider velocity vs. horizontal movement graph:

More break, less velocity. Statcast began classifying pitches as “sweeper” this season (you may have seen it in the YES scorebug) which is helpful for the viewer, but they are overdoing it and lumping some traditional sliders in with sweepers. I’d rather just stick with “slider” and drop them all into the same bucket, and sort it out later. All sweepers are a slider but not all sliders are a sweeper.

Generally speaking, sweepers get more swings and misses than regular sliders because they move so much, but they’re also harder to throw for a strike and they have a big platoon split. Also, sweepers are already beginning to go out of style. Several teams, including the Yankees, are trending back toward traditional sliders with more velocity and less break.

Clay Holmes is a good example. He added a sweeper last season and used it a bunch in the first half, then when lefties started to give him trouble and throwing strikes didn’t come as easily, Holmes went back to a traditional slider. This year he’s throwing sweepers and traditional sliders at about an equal rate. Here’s his slider horizontal movement by month. It’s easy to see when Holmes picked up the sweeper, then cut back:

As for Hamilton’s “slambio,” that’s a unique pitch unrelated to sweepers. Hamilton’s slambio – the name is a combination of slider and cambio (Spanish for changeup) – has slider movement but is thrown with a changeup grip and has changeup spin (i.e. much lower spin than an actual slider). Statcast classifies it as a slider despite the changeup grip. Here’s Hamilton’s slambio in action (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

I don’t know how to describe Hamilton’s slambio as anything other than a changeup with slider movement. It’s a unique pitch and it’s what drew the Yankees to Hamilton. He recently told Gary Phillips all his other teams (White Sox, Twins, Guardians) tried to tweak the pitch or take it away entirely. The Yankees said keep throwing it, and Hamilton appreciated that.

“We did embrace it as something different, unique,” Aaron Boone told Phillips. “Usually, when you have something unique, that makes it difficult to hit. So we liked it and leaned into it. Hopefully that’s something that’s given him a little bit more confidence, because he’s throwing the ball really well.”

Sweepers are the modern day frisbee slider. They have more horizontal movement and less velocity than traditional sliders, generally leading to more whiffs but also fewer strikes and platoon problems. Hamilton’s slambio has slider movement and changeup spin, and is unique to him. No one else throws anything like it. In possibly related news, he’s struck out 15 in 8.2 innings this season.

Ike asks: We heard about MLB experimenting in A ball last summer with a pie slice rule to further eliminate the shift. Is that still going on?

Yes. MLB tested the “pie slice” rule in the Low-A Florida State League in the second half last season and they’re doing it again this year, according to Josh Norris. The pie slice is an area behind second base where infielders are not allowed to be positioned. It is marked on the field with chalk and looks like this:

MLB’s rules say two infielders must be on each side of second base, but they can saddle right up to the bag and take away hits on balls back up the middle. The pie slice opens up the middle of the infield. J.J. Cooper found the FSL had a .313 BABIP without the pie slice in the first half and a .307 BABIP with the pie slice in the second half. MLB is testing it for the full season now.

This is one of those rules that might not help as much as you’d think because there aren’t that many balls hit directly back up the middle. Looking specifically at ground balls, only 32.2% have been hit back up the middle this year (33.4% last year). The majority are hit closer to the holes between first and second or short and third, and the pie slice forces fielders to be positioned closer to the hole.

A half-season of Low-A BABIP isn’t nearly enough to say anything definitive about the pie slice, so MLB will try it again this year, and presumably try it at other levels at some point too. It would not surprise me if this one falls by the wayside. (Low-A Tampa is in the FSL, so they play with the pie slice.)

Paul asks: What happened to the 6:30pm home games? Did they get rid of them because games are shorter now?

Those early starts are gone. They were gone last year. When the Yankees announced the 6:35pm ET weekday start times for April 2021, they said it was a trial run and part of an “effort to better accommodate the varying needs of our fans … (and) continues the club’s ongoing efforts to improve the fan experience for every guest at Yankee Stadium.” I guess the early starts flunked the trial run, so we’re back to 7:05pm ET start times all season. Personally, I liked the 6:35pm ET starts, but I know they didn't work for a lot of people who have commutes and whatnot. Just think though, with a 6:35pm ET start and the pitch clock, we could have been with the Yankees at like 9pm each night, and moving on with our lives.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)