April 6th, 2023: Torres, LeMahieu, King, Donaldson, Happ, Reynolds, Rodriguez, Mailbag

Esteban Rivera wrote a good piece this week examining Anthony Volpe's leads. With the new limit on pitcher disengagements, it’s much easier to use what amounts to a running lead. Volpe is not the fastest dude but he went 50-for-57 (88%) stealing bases in the minors last year and is 3-for-3 six games into his MLB career. Make sure you check Rivera’s post out. Now here is Friday morning’s post Thursday evening because it’s an impromptu off-day, and I don’t see a reason to wait until the morning to hit publish.

1. Weekday thoughts. The first homestand is in the books and things went about as well as we could have hoped, minus Aaron Judge striking out 10 times in 26 plate appearances. Not a great start to my bold predictions! At least Judge is hitting .348/.423/.696 (190 wRC+) to go along with that 38.5% strikeout rate. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Gleyber’s monster homestand

Gleyber Torres heard everyone who wanted him traded over the winter. Torres is 8-for-19 with a double, two homers, five steals in six attempts, six walks, and only two strikeouts through six games. That’s a .421/.560/.789 (272 wRC+) slash line. Gleyber stole 10 bases (in 15 attempts) last season. He’s halfway to that total after one homestand.

“I feel really comfortable every at-bat. I feel like I’ve got really good patience at home plate right now,” Torres told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s game. Here’s a recap of his day. It was quality at-bat after quality at-bat:

• 1st inning: Fell behind in the count 0-2 against Cy Young vote-getter Aaron Nola, fouled away two pitches and worked it back to 2-2, then found grass with a broken bat looper to drive in a run.
• 4th inning: Jumped on a first pitch fastball and hit a fly ball just short of the warning track in right field.
• 6th inning: Again fell behind 0-2 against Nola, again fouled away two pitches to stay alive, then shot a grounder up the middle to score another run.
• 8th inning: Ripped a 1-0 pitch for a ground rule double that might have left the yard on a warm summer day.

“Sometimes I can be too aggressive,” Torres told Bob Klapisch. “I’m trying to be more patient, more consistent. Trying to take the same approach every at-bat.”

When Torres is at his best, he’s focused on right field. That doesn’t mean every ball goes the other way, just that he stays back a little more and has a calmer approach at the plate. Every Gleyber slump looks the same. He gets too big with his swing and tries to yank everything to left field. Right now, Torres is locked in, grinding out at-bats, and spraying the ball all around.

For whatever reason narratives get built with Torres. He struggled in 2021 because he played shortstop (what about when he played short in 2019?). He slumped last August because he heard the trade rumors (didn't everyone but Judge slump last August?). He’s tearing it up now because he realizes Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe threaten to take away playing time (hasn’t DJ LeMahieu been threatening to take away playing time the last few years?). I feel like there’s always an effort to attribute Gleyber's play to a non-baseball reason, much moreso than with other players. It can never be just baseball with Torres.

Six games is only six games, and unless a hitter is doing something like hitting the ball harder than ever before (Torres isn’t), I don’t want to make too much of it. Torres has started the new season on a nice heater and he is a supremely talented 26-year-old. He's at the age when guys often level up and have career years, and maybe Gleyber is in the middle of doing that. It’s too soon to say, but maybe. Whatever the reason, Torres has looked fantastic this year, both the production and the poise he’s shown at the plate. A shut the haters up season would be rad.

“That’s what he’s capable of,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) on Wednesday. “We’ve seen that. We’re seeing a guy that’s really starting to hit the prime of his career as a young man. I feel like every at-bat has been super competitive, whether it ends in a good result or not. There’s a lot of calm to what he’s doing out there right now.”

Le Return of Le Machine

By the power vested in me by you, the readers, I hereby declare DJ LeMahieu: back. Or at least healthy. He is 6-for-20 (.300) with two doubles and a home run (and an outfielder-aided triple) in the early going. More importantly, LeMahieu is stinging the ball again. He had six 100 mph exit velocities in the Phillies series, and five of those six batted balls were in the air. The spray chart of those six batted balls:

Six 100 mph batted balls in one series after only six of LeMahieu’s final 47 batted balls last season checked in at 100+ mph. That spans all the way back to August 23rd, and five of those six were on the ground. Hitting the ball hard in the air was just not a thing LeMahieu could do late last year because of the toe injury. Now he’s back to driving the ball all over the ballpark.

“I forgot how good it felt to be normal,” LeMahieu told Gary Phillips following Wednesday’s game.

LeMahieu looked good in Spring Training but that’s only Spring Training. Now he’s out here looking good – great, even – in meaningful regular season games. This is what I hoped to see early in the season. I would have been okay with, say, a 1-for-17 start as long as LeMahieu was hitting the ball with authority and getting it airborne. That’s exactly what he’s doing. Hooray.

“He was a shell of himself at the end of the season,” Boone told Phillips. “He’s back where he was when he was in the middle of a great year last year before he got hurt. So it’s good to see him like that.”

A lesser King

Mike King is not yet the Mike King we saw last season. He got hit around again Tuesday night and his velocity was still down. It was more 93-95 mph than 97-99 mph. King has gone to a two-strike count on 13 batters this season and seven have reached base (.539 OBP). That feels impossible. Last season King held hitters to a .138/.228/.202 line in two-strike counts.

“I’d much rather give up my own runs than Domingo’s,” King told Mark Sanchez about allowing the two runners he inherited from Domingo Germán to score Tuesday. “I felt like I spoiled a pretty good start, and then blew the game open.”

The velocity is the big concern. Even the best pitchers give up hits and have bad outings (or a string of bad outings) now and then. But when a guy’s stuff is down, yeah, it’s a concern. That goes double when the guy is coming off a major (and somewhat unique) elbow injury like King. Here’s his game-by-game velocity chart since last Opening Day:

King’s velocity is down even relative to where it was early last year. He was mostly 95-96 mph to begin last year. It wasn’t until May and June that he started to live in that 97-99 mph range. King’s velocity is down relative to early last season and his velocity has been trending down for a few appearances now. That ain’t good. King thinks it might be a mechanical issue.

“My velocity was there in my first couple of games in Spring Training and it’s slowly gone down from that. I don’t know if it’s a dead arm or if it’s me trying to muscle up to really get the velocity because I’m noticing that. I think it’s more a quick mechanical change that I’ve got to get comfortable with,” King told Kuty (subs. req’d). “... I feel like I’m trying to generate power early in my mechanics instead of having late hand speed. I feel like that affects the velocity a little bit, but it also affects the late movement of it. I’m not getting it right now.”

King is very bright. He is all-in on pitch design and using analytics to better himself. That’s how he was able to reshape his arsenal and go from unheralded 12th round pick to impact MLB pitcher. If King and pitching coach Matt Blake find a mechanical flaw, I am confident he will get it straightened out. It might not happen overnight, but I’m confident King would right himself.

Until that happens, King is a bit of a liability, and should be treated accordingly. Does Boone recognize that? His track record suggests he’ll let King blow another 2-3 games before bumping him down the pecking order. Boone really should be proactive here. King is missing velocity and a good deal of it, and hitters are comfortable in the box. There are red flags abound and tangible reasons to believe he’s not the same pitcher he was last season.

It’s possible King will never throw 97-99 mph again. His track record of throwing that hard is short (just a few weeks last season) and it may not come back. King insists his elbow feels good – “Luckily, my elbow has been feeling great,” he told Andy Martino – and as long as he’s healthy, I expect him to figure things out. Until it happens though, the Yankees should back off and let him work through it in lower leverage spots. Two costly meltdowns is enough.

“(He’s not) getting synced up properly. I’m hoping that’s all it is,” Boone told Kuty (subs. req’d).

Miscellany

Gerrit Cole through two starts: 12.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 19 K. He didn’t even allow the run. The runner reached on a pitch clock violation ball four and Jonathan Loáisiga was unable to strand the inherited runner. Including Spring Training, Cole has 46 strikeouts and six walks in 34 innings in 2023. He has looked fantastic since February … Speaking of the pitch clock, the Yankees have been hit with three violations in six games: one each by Cole, Albert Abreu, and Jimmy Cordero (no hitter violations yet). Cole got dinged because he and Jose Trevino couldn’t get on the same page and didn’t ask for time before the buzzer. Abreu is the one guy on the staff who seems to be struggling with the pitch clock. He’s taken it down to the one second mark several times in his two outings. Abreu has to pick up the pace a bit. Cutting it that close will lead to violations and poorly executed pitches because they’re rushed … Clay Holmes allowed two runs on three hits in two-thirds of an inning in his season debut. He’s struck out five of the seven batters he’s faced since then, allowing just an infield single. Ron Marinaccio has fanned six of the 11 batters he’s faced in the early going. Entering play Thursday, Yankees pitchers have the highest strikeout rate (32.9%) and third lowest walk rate (5.5%) in baseball, and they don’t even have Carlos Rodón or Luis Severino yet. The injury-depleted pitching staff has been very good overall.

2. Donaldson’s injury and Thursday’s rainout. The Yankees finally ran into their first weather issue of 2023. They made it through the entirety of Spring Training in Florida without so much as a rain delay, and the first homestand went smoothly as well. Then Thursday’s game in Baltimore, the Orioles’ home opener, was rained out. A rainout was bound to happen at some point. The Yankees and Orioles will play Friday afternoon instead. That’s a 3pm ET start.

The rainout really screws with the Yankees’ rotation. Before the rainout they needed their No. 5 starter on April 12th and not again until April 22nd. Now they need their No. 5 starter on April 11th and again on April 16th, provided there are no other rainouts. Here’s how the rotation lines up now (these are the starting pitchers’ initials, just in case it isn’t clear):

The Yankees sent Jhony Brito to Triple-A following his impressive MLB debut this past Sunday so they could carry an extra reliever for a few days. The 15-day rule means Brito can not be called back up until April 17th, so he’s not an option for those two upcoming SP5 starts. Boone hinted at a bullpen game in Brito’s spot on April 12th, before the rainout threw a wrench into things.

That’s where Josh Donaldson comes in. Donaldson exited Wednesday’s game with tightness in his right hamstring and he’ll be evaluated Thursday. Thursday is an off-day, so we won’t get an update until Friday. "We didn't want to push it,” Donaldson told Joon Lee about leaving the game. Aaron Boone added: “Don't think it's too severe but it is a hamstring."

Placing Donaldson on the injured list would allow the Yankees to recall Brito before his 15 days in the minors are up, in which case we don’t have to worry about those upcoming SP5 starts. Brito is scheduled to pitch Friday night for Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees could call him up and start him right away, and give the other starters an extra day early in the season.

(Putting DJ LeMahieu at third base while Donaldson is sidelined is the obvious move, but never underestimate Boone’s ability to shoehorn Isiah Kiner-Falefa into the lineup.)

Because of the 13-pitcher limit, using Donaldson’s injury to recall Brito before the 15-day waiting period is up would necessitate sending down a pitcher for a position player. Only six pitchers on the roster have a minor league option(s): Nestor Cortes, Ian Hamilton, Mike King, Jonathan Loáisiga, Ron Marinaccio, and Clarke Schmidt. I guess the Yankees could designate Albert Abreu, Colten Brewer, or Jimmy Cordero for assignment, but I don’t think they want to go that route yet.

Hamilton would be the one to go down. King has struggled thus far but things aren’t “he needs to go to Triple-A until he figures it out” bad yet. Cortes and Schmidt are needed in the rotation and Loáisiga and Marinaccio are trusted late inning relievers. They’re going nowhere. Hamilton it is. Donaldson to the injured list, Brito comes back before his 15 days are up, then Hamilton goes down for a position player in a corresponding move. Easy peasy, right? Right.

As for that position player, Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira are the only healthy position players on the 40-man roster and in the minors. The thing is, the Yankees can’t call them up yet. The 10-day waiting period starts on Opening Day no matter when the player is optioned in Spring Training (it’s 10 days for position players and 15 for pitchers). Unless they replace an injured player, Peraza and Pereira can’t come up until Sunday.

The Yankees can call up a non-40-man roster position player right away. Those guys don’t have to wait the 10 days. So … Willie Calhoun? Wilmer Difo? If the Yankees plan to call up Peraza as soon as he’s eligible Sunday, then it’ll probably be Difo. They could designate him for assignment and not sweat losing him to waivers or free agency. I don’t think they want to cut bait on Calhoun that quickly. He’s more of a long-term call up candidate.

Scott Effross, Luis Gil, and Frankie Montas are on the 60-day injured list already. Tommy Kahnle is probably a 60-day injured list candidate at this point. He got a cortisone shot in his biceps last week and he played catch for the first time Wednesday. Kahnle still has a long build up ahead of him, so yeah, the 60-day injured list is possible. In that case he could return no earlier than May 29th. The Yankees could be looking at this series of moves Friday:

• Donaldson to the 10-day injured list.
• Brito recalled to replace Donaldson, bypassing the 15-day rule.
• Hamilton optioned to Triple-A to get back down to 13 pitchers.
• Difo or another non-40-man roster position player called up to replace Hamilton.
• Kahnle to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Difo or whoever.

And then Difo or whoever could be dropped from the roster Sunday for Peraza. Got all that? This feels like one of those situations where I lay all this out, it all makes sense but feels a little too complicated, then the Yankees make one or two moves that solve everything and I wonder why I didn’t think of that. Couldn’t tell you how many times that’s happened over the years.

For all we know Donaldson’s hamstring injury could be minor and the Yankees won’t even need to put him on the injured list. In that case they could keep Hamilton around until the SP5 spot comes up on April 11th, then option Hamilton and call up a non-40-man pitcher to make the spot start or be a bulk innings guy (Randy Vásquez would still be in the 15-day waiting period on April 11th).

We’ll see what happens with Donaldson and the upcoming SP5 situation. All we know right now is Donaldson is hurt and will be evaluated Thursday, and Thursday’s rainout means the Yankees now need their No. 5 starter twice in the next 10 days rather than twice in the next 16 days. The Yankees have some roster machinations coming. I can’t tell you what, exactly, but something.

3. Mining the news. I’ve been sitting on a bunch of Yankees-related and Yankees-adjacent news items the last week or two, and it’s time to empty the notebook. Here are a few miscellaneous nuggets I want to touch on.

Cubs, Happ unable to agree to extension

The Cubs and Ian Happ did not agree to a contract extension prior to Opening Day, making him the early front runner to be the top outfield trade candidate this summer. There’s a long way to go between now and the trade deadline, but Happ will be a free agent after the season and the Cubs are at best a fringe contender.

“You play with other guys that end up other places and it’s okay,” Happ told Andrew Seligman. “It’s not the end of your career when you’re not playing where you came up. There definitely will be moments here and there. It’s appreciating that, appreciating getting to play with this group. Those are definitely the things that I learned the last two seasons.”

Happ, 28, is 7-for-16 (.438) with a home run through five games this season. He slashed .271/.342/.440 (120 wRC+) with 17 homers last year, and cut his strikeout rate to 23.2%. It was 29.2% in 2021 and 30.8% from 2017-21. I wrote about Happ as a trade candidate last summer and noted the strikeout rate improvement dates back to mechanical changes he made in August 2021.

Oswaldo Cabrera is the starting left fielder now, though he’s so versatile the Yankees could bring in Happ and keep Cabrera in the lineup at another position. Happ is a switch-hitter who is better against righties, he has power, and he’s a good defender now that he’s playing left field full-time rather than bouncing between different positions. He checks a lot of boxes. And the Yankees can ask Anthony Rizzo how he’d fit in the clubhouse too.

Chicago is willing to trade core homegrown players before they become free agents (Rizzo, Javy Báez, Kris Bryant, etc.). Is that still the case after spending all that money on Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, et al? Might as well call and ask, right? We’ll check back on Happ and the left field situation in a few weeks. I just wanted to note he doesn’t have an extension, and that makes him a potential trade candidate.

Reynolds, Pirates haggling over opt out

In other outfield trade candidate news, the Pirates and Bryan Reynolds worked through an extension in Spring Training, and they’re hung up on an opt out clause. Including 2023, it’s an eight-year contract worth $106M. Reynolds wants an opt out after 2026. The Pirates don’t want to do that. Reynolds is currently scheduled to become a free agent after 2025.

“I think I’ve been pretty open over the past few years that my number one (preference) would be to sign an extension in Pittsburgh,” Reynolds told Justice delos Santos early in camp. “But I want that to be a fair deal for both sides, not one side or the other. Not a crazy player (deal), not a crazy team deal. That’s always been my number one.”

For Pittsburgh, an opt out after 2026 is a low upside move. If things go well, they get Reynolds for just one extra year. And if things go poorly, they’re stuck with him through 2030. It almost feels like Reynolds asked for the opt out knowing it would be rejected. Then he can say “look, I wanted to stay, but they didn't really want to keep me” and maybe Pirates fans will hate him a little less.

Reynolds, 28, is 10-for-24 (.417) with an MLB-leading four home runs in the early going. He balled out at Fenway Park earlier this week, going 7-for-12 with two doubles and three homers in three games (video). I’m not sure what the Pirates plan to do here (continue to grind away at an extension? break off talks?) and the asking price is said to be very high. I prefer Reynolds to Happ on the field, but the price may make Happ a more a realistic target.

Yariel Rodriguez seeking MLB contract

Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, one of the top setup men in Japan, has broken his contract with the Chunichi Dragons and hopes to sign with an MLB team, reports Francys Romero. The 26-year-old had a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate in 54.2 innings last year. That’s in a league where the average strikeout rate is 19.0%.

Although Rodriguez has pitched in relief the last few years, he’s believed to have enough stuff to start, and he was Cuba’s No. 1 starter in the World Baseball Classic. His two WBC starts: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 6 BB, 10 K. Here’s video of him striking out Jurickson Profar and Xander Bogaerts, among others. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Rodriguez the No. 8 prospect not under contract with an MLB team in the WBC. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Rodriguez was a soft-tossing righthanded starter with an 87-90 mph fastball in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, but his stuff has ticked up dramatically since he moved to Japan in 2020 … Rodriguez’s four-seam fastball velocity has increased markedly and now sits 93-96 mph and touches 98 in relief. He also has a two-seamer that runs in on batters and a hard slider with vertical bite that flashes average. Rodriguez only learned how to throw a splitter last year and is still gaining a feel for the pitch, but it’s usable and has a chance to improve the more comfortable he gets throwing it. Rodriguez’s delivery and arm action are slightly effortful and his control is fringy, but his growing arsenal and history of starting have some teams interested in him as a potential fifth starter. He continues to get better every year and is trending up.

WBC Statcast data had Rodriguez’s fastball sitting 95.4 mph and topping out at 98.4 mph in his first start, with a strong 2,587 rpm spin rate. His slider checked in at 84.4 mph and 2.932 rpm, which is top of the line slider spin. If he can start, great. And if starting doesn’t work out, it looks like Rodriguez has more than enough stuff to get outs in a short relief role.

Rodriguez’s free agency is not that simple because he’s not actually a free agent. He is under contract with Chunichi through 2024. Rodriguez can “break” his contract all he wants, but as veteran Japanese baseball scribe Jim Allen notes, Chunichi must release him before he can sign with another team. It would be like Aaron Judge waking up one morning and deciding to play for the Yomiuri Giants. The Yankees would say uh, no, you’re under contract with us.

The Baseball Federal of Cuba has a working relationship with Nippon Professional Baseball and lots of Cuban players are given permission to play in Japan. As Allen notes, an NPB team releasing a Cuban player so he could sign with an MLB team without BFC’s approval would not go over well. This is not necessarily a dealbreaker (Allen notes BFC could ask for compensation in exchange for okaying Rodriguez’s move, such as part of the posting fee) but it is a complicating factor.

NPB Opening Day was last week and Rodriguez is said to be in the Dominican Republic. I have no idea if or when he will be made available to MLB teams, or what kind of contract he’ll get when he does come over. Miles Mikolas got a two-year contract worth $15.5M when he came back from Japan, and it included $9M in bonuses tied to innings. Maybe something with bonuses tied to starts, innings, and/or relief appearances works for Rodriguez? I really have no idea.

The Yankees have not spent significantly on a Cuban player since Jose Contreras. They have signed several Cuban prospects subject to the international bonus pool (Osiel Rodriguez, Brandon Mayea, etc.), but bigger money guys like Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias, Yoan Moncada, and the Gurriel brothers went elsewhere. Does that mean the Yankees won’t be in on Rodriguez? I don’t know. They'll break the trend with someone eventually. Why not him?

Yankees had scouts watching Japan’s pitchers in WBC

From the no duh department: Erik Boland says the Yankees had multiple scouts watching Japan’s pitchers in the World Baseball Classic, including 21-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki. This is barely news because every team had multiple scouts watching Japan (and other teams) in the WBC. It would be more notable if an MLB team didn’t send scouts to the WBC.

Sasaki, righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and third baseman Munetaka Murakami were the three big non-MLB players on Japan’s WBC roster. I wrote about them in a recent mailbag. Yamamoto is expected to be posted this coming offseason. Murakami will be posted after 2025. Sasaki may not come over until 2027. That’s a long way away, but the Yankees have started their homework. They’re gonna learn as much as they can about these guys before deciding whether to pursue them.

MLB, minor leaguers agree to CBA

MLB and the new MLBPA-backed minor league union agreed to the first ever Collective Bargaining Agreement for non-40-man roster players last week. The players approved it in time for Triple-A Opening Day last Friday and overwhelmingly so. There are roughly 5,000 players in the minor league union and over 99% voted in favor of the deal, the MLBPA says.

“The agreement represents a giant step forward in treating Minor League Players as the elite professional athletes that they are,” MLBPA chief Tony Clark said in a statement. “It’s a historic day for these Players, their families and the entire Player fraternity.”

Jeff Passan has the CBA details. Players get better pay, better housing, better transportation, better meals, and better medical coverage, among other things. Players now get paid for Spring Training and part of the offseason, there are special housing accommodations for players with families, and a bunch of other stuff. Here are the new minimum annual salaries:

• Rookie: $19,600 (was $4,800)
• Low-A: $26,200 (was $11,000)
• High-A: $27,300 (was $11,000)
• Double-A: $30,250 (was $13,800)
• Triple-A: $35,800 (was $17,500)

Minor league players are still underpaid but they did score significant salary bumps. That’s a pretty good start considering what they made last year, and that this is the first ever minor league CBA. Also, players who sign their first pro contract at 19 or older become minor league free agents after six years rather than seven. College draftees come with one fewer year of team control, basically.

As part of the new minor league CBA, MLB has power to trim the Domestic Reserve List from 180 players to 165 players next year (190 to 175 in the offseason), which the league very likely will do. MLB cut 40 minor league teams two years ago and now they’re coming for individual roster spots. Several executives, most notably disgraced former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, have pushed trimming the minors as a way to cut costs, and MLB is chipping away.

(The Domestic Reserve List is the number of non-40-man roster players each team can have under contract. It was unlimited as recently as three years ago. Triple-A, Double-A, High-A, Low-A, and rookie ball rosters are 28 players each, so that’s 140 players right there. The remaining Domestic Reserve List spots go to guys on the injured list, in Extended Spring Training, etc.)

The good news outweighs the bad. Minor leaguers have much better working conditions now, and it’s overdue. They played for a pittance and ate junk for way too long. And it’s estimated these improvements will cost roughly $90M total, or $3M per MLB team. That’s “middle reliever who will have a 5.28 ERA in 26 innings around multiple injured list stints” money.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. While speaking to Evan Drellich (subs. req’d), Rob Manfred seemed to indicate he prefers a challenge system to a fully automated strike zone. “The theory of instant replay was: fix the big miss. And we decided, well, why don’t we try the same theory?” Manfred said. He added the MLBPA is opposed to the automatic strike zone because it would legislate an entire group of players out of the game (catchers whose value is largely tied up in pitch framing, like Jose Trevino). I could see the automated zone having unintended consequences, like four guys hitting .400 in the first year because they know exactly where the strike zone is and isn’t. Within that piece, Drellich (subs. req’d) notes some teams limit who can challenge ball and strike calls in the minors, including the Yankees (each team gets three challenges per game). The Yankees only allow catchers to challenge calls because pitchers and hitters “run too hot,” Low-A Tampa manager Rachel Balkovic said. In the low minors, yeah I can buy that. Eventually you have to take the reins off though. Imagine telling Aaron Judge he can’t challenge a strike call when he thinks it’s a ball? I like the idea of a challenge system more than a fully automated zone. I’m not ready for full robo umps. We’ll see where this goes.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Several people asked: What about Gleyber Torres at third base?

I was disappointed the Yankees didn’t play Torres, Oswald Peraza, or Anthony Volpe even one inning at third base in Spring Training. I understand they have Oswaldo Cabrera, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and DJ LeMahieu as third base alternatives to Josh Donaldson, but wouldn’t you want to at least see whether a Peraza-Torres-Volpe infield is possible (at whatever positions)?

The Yankees were planning to call Torres up and put him at third base in 2017, but he blew out his elbow sliding into home plate on June 17th and needed Tommy John surgery. That led to the Todd Frazier trade. Prior to the injury, Gleyber had played 15 games at third base that season, more than he played at second (10). He played eight games at third in Triple-A in 2018, then got called up at the end of April and hasn’t manned the hot corner since.

I am very open to trying Torres at third. It’s a quick reaction position, not one where you need a ton of range in either direction like second base and shortstop, which suits his defensive skills well. His arm is (probably) good enough too. The Yankees were comfortable putting Torres there at one point in time. Maybe they aren’t now, but they have tried it, and were apparently ready to throw him out at third base before the injury in 2017.

I understand the apprehension considering Torres hasn’t hit much when he’s playing Not Second Base, but I don’t think there’s much causation there (he hit .289/.348/.606 and 143 wRC+ in over 300 plate appearances as a shortstop in 2019). Let’s try Gleyber at the hot corner and see whether there’s a way to get Torres and Peraza and Volpe on the infield at the same time.

(I have no expectation of the Yankees trying it, especially not on the fly during the season. If they were considering Torres or any of the kids at third base, they would’ve done it in Spring Training.)

Michael asks: Let's assume (hope) Bader comes back and Donaldson is still the same 86 wRC+ player he was post-injury last year. Let's also assume Donaldson and his contract are unmovable. Is there a world where DJ becomes the regular 3rd baseman (at least against RHP)? Or are we looking at 500+ PA again for JD no matter how poorly he plays?

Josh Donaldson is 2-for-16 (.125) in the early going and he’s 1-for-13 (.077) with six strikeouts and a 15.5% swinging strike rate against righties. He didn’t hit righties at all after coming off the injured list last season and he looks no better against them in the early going this year, even with the adjustments he’s made at the plate. Not a great start to the year for Donaldson.

There is definitely a point where the Yankees would cut their losses and release Donaldson, and go with DJ LeMahieu and/or Oswald Cabrera at third base. I just have no idea where that point is. Complicating things is his defense. Donaldson can still play the crap out of third base, so he’s not a zero value player. Even with, say, an 85 wRC+, he can be a +1 to +2 WAR guy. Overpaid? Absolutely. Useless? No, not really.

Based on Alfonso Soriano and Alex Rodriguez, a Donaldson release won’t sneak up on us. The Yankees will cut down on his playing time first, and continue cutting down until he’s a once or twice a week player (A-Rod started three of his final 19 games on the roster, and one of the three was his ceremonial farewell). He’ll be mostly out of the picture before he’s officially out of the picture.

Harrison Bader’s return will have no impact on Donaldson. If anything, it would spell the end for Aaron Hicks, but I’m not sure I buy that either. I have no idea what the Yankees’ endgame is with Hicks. It feels like everyone wants to move on but ownership won’t eat the money. (The Yankees ate roughly the same amount over a much shorter period of time when they released A-Rod, by the way.) Sending Franchy Cordero down is the most likely move when Bader returns.

It feels like Donaldson will continue to play strong defense and hit juuust enough to stay on the roster all season. Maybe he’ll have a Stephen Drew season in which he hits a clutch home run every time it appears he’s on the verge of being released. There is a point where the Yankees will say enough is enough, no doubt about it, but I don’t think Donaldson is anywhere close to it.

Will asks: I am thinking about Mike King's velocity drop and wonder if the pitch clock is contributing a bit to it. Maybe hoping that is the case really. It is still the first turn through the rotation but is the pitch clock contributing to drops in velocity around the league or too early to tell?

We can’t rule it out. Earlier in this post I noted King said he thinks it’s a mechanical issue, and he hasn’t run into any pitch clock trouble (violations or just taking it down to one or two seconds), but yeah, it’s possible. For what it’s worth, velocity is up in the early going league-wide. Here are the average velocities:

Keep in mind there was a normal Spring Training this year, the first since 2019. Last spring was truncated by the lockout and the spring before that had a lighter, more spread out schedule. The uptick in velocity could be nothing more than pitchers coming out of camp more prepared than at any point since before the pandemic.

That said, velocity has been on the rise for years (decades, really), so an increase isn’t out of the ordinary. Baseball America (subs. req’d) looked at fastball velocity in minor leagues with the pitch clock and found it held steady from 2021 to 2022 (93.2 mph both years). The pitch clock affects different pitchers in different ways and I’m sure it robs some guys of velocity. It could be happening with King. He thinks it’s mechanical and I’m inclined to believe him.

Scott asks: “2 pitch” pitchers can’t be successful starters. People say this a lot. What do you think? Who are the best “2 pitch” starting pitchers in MLB? I read a scouting report on today’s yanks starter Brito saying he has good fastball/change but lack of 3rd pitch could ticket him for the bullpen & it got me thinking about this issue. Lots of pitchers struggle to command a third pitch but I’m curious about the ceiling of “2 pitch” guys.

Jhony Brito is a fastball/changeup pitcher yet he still threw 13 breaking balls among his 76 pitches Sunday (17%). True two-pitch pitchers, guys who throw two pitches 100% of the time, don’t exist in the starting ranks. They all have some sorta third pitch they throw once in a while just to keep hitters honest, even if it’s a two-seamer to pair with their four-seamer.

The best two-pitch starter in the game right now is a Yankee: Carlos Rodón. He threw 60.1% four-seamers and 29.4% sliders from 2021-22, so that’s 89.5% two pitches. Rodón filled in the gaps with curveballs and changeups. Here are the few others who used two pitches at least 85% of the time from 2021-22 (min. 200 innings):

• Brady Singer: 55.1% sinkers and 38.1% sliders (93.2% combined)
• Cristian Javier: 59.7% four-seamers and 27.4% sliders (87.1% combined)
• Zach Davies: 53.2% sinkers and 33.1% changeups (86.3% combined)
• Jon Gray: 48.9% four-seamers and 37.2% sliders (86.1% combined)

Sean Manaea (84.9% sinkers and changeups) and Robbie Ray (83.5% four-seamers and sliders) just missed my arbitrary 85% cutoff. I would have guessed Johan Santana was the best two-pitch starter in recent memory, but the pitch data we have from his prime tells me he threw 16% sliders in addition to his fastball and changeup.

Guys like Javier and Rodón, who can pitch at an elite level while relying so heavily on only two pitches, are rare. The majority are in the Singer/Gray mold, meaning they dominate same-side hitters but have a large platoon split. Davies, because he’s a changeup guy, is the opposite. He’s been better against lefties than righties throughout his career.

To be a great two-pitch pitcher, you need two great pitches (like Rodón’s fastball and slider), and even then you still have to show hitters a third pitch now and then. Changeups typically have less of a platoon split than sliders, so guys like Davies (and Brito) can make it work as starters. They just have to locate well, and even then their ceiling is a bit limited.

Baseball history tells us two-pitch pitchers have a harder time being effective starters than guys with three or four pitches. I do think it’s a little easier for those guys to have success now though because teams are smarter about limiting them to two times through the order, pairing them with an opener, etc. Teams are so smart about pitcher usage now that I think labels like “No. 3 starter upside” are becoming useless. Pitchers get more out of their talent than ever.

Vinnie asks: I find it really curious that the Yanks launched their YES streaming app a year before Ohtani’s free agency. Will the app be available in the Japanese market? I'd be very curious if there was a way to measure the potential increase in revenue in the APAC market should he sign. Maybe we could start by looking at the increase of revenue during Matsui’s career?

The YES Network’s direct-to-consumer streaming service is only available in the Yankees’ home market (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, etc.). No matter where he signs this offseason, people in Japan will watch Shohei Ohtani the same way they watch him now: MLB.tv. MLB.tv money is split equally among the 30 teams. (I think a network in Japan broadcasts Ohtani’s games, though I could be wrong.)

There is definitely a revenue increase that comes with Ohtani and other star players from around the world. Last year Alden Gonzalez reported Ohtani “annually generate(s) somewhere in the low tens of millions of dollars in additional revenue” for the Angels. That is a) less than I would have guessed, and b) probably a lot less than he’d generate in New York.

A report passed along by a now defunct blog says Hideki Matsui was worth $15M a year in revenue to the Yankees, though that number was likely exaggerated. As outsiders, we will never know the real number, but global stars like Ohtani, Matsui, and Ichiro definitely come with a revenue boost. Enough to say Ohtani will pay for himself? Beats me, but it can be a significant chunk of change.

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