March 31st, 2023: Opening Day, Brewer, Mailbag

My pal Dayn Perry wrote a long, thorough, and exhaustive history of the old Yankee Stadium, which opened 100 years ago this April. Make sure you check that out. It gets the highest recommendation. Now let’s get to the post-Opening Day post.

1. Opening Day thoughts. That was close to a perfect Opening Day win. Except for all those strikeouts. 16 strikeouts in eight offensive innings? Sheesh guys. A win is a win though, and the Yankees wrapped up the 5-0 win in a tidy 2:33. B-e-a-utiful. The Yankees played only nine nine-inning games that short the last two seasons. Some thoughts on Game 1 of 162.

Judge takes his former team* deep

* Arson Judge’s former team, that is.

Much different vibe this Opening Day than last Opening Day. Last year we learned Aaron Judge turned down an extension a few hours before first pitch, which put a bit of a damper on things. We were all mad at someone – Judge for wanting more or the Yankees for not offering more – and the game, which the Yankees won a Josh Donaldson walk-off single, felt secondary.

Way better vibe this year. Judge turned down the Giants to re-sign with the Yankees, then went deep against the Giants in his first at-bat on Opening Day. It was his first swing of the season. That’s as captainly as it gets. Imagine being a Giants fan for that? Oof. Judge’s homer was his first ever Opening Day homer, and it was the first home run in MLB this season. That's pretty cool.

"To set the tone for us like that, after the offseason and signing back, (being named) captain, for him to get us rolling was very fitting,” Aaron Boone said. I’d say.

Judge hit his home run into Monument Park, where he will one day be immortalized, and he did it against Logan Webb too. Webb allowed one home run in his final 10 starts last season and six homers on his sinker the last two years. He’s very difficult to elevate and he’s death on righties: .216/.250/.288 (.245 wOBA) last year. Webb didn’t leave this sinker up too much either. Just good hittin'.

"I was just trying to make solid contact," Judge said. "Especially with a guy like Logan, got that nasty sinker-changeup mix. Lot of balls on the ground, lot of weak contact. Just trying to elevate a pitch and get it in the air best I could. I didn't expect that to happen. Try to swing at strikes."

All in all, it was a great first day as captain. Judge opened the scoring with a solo home run in the first and dropped an RBI bloop single to center in the seventh. The center fielder played him so far back that he couldn’t get to the ball in time on the bloop. And Judge played center field too. The guy picked up right where he left off last season. He’s the best.

Volpe debuts

Anthony Volpe is already a rock star in the Bronx. Only Judge received a louder ovation during pregame introductions, and Volpe kissed the interlocking NY on his jersey to acknowledge the Bleacher Creatures during Roll Call. Give this kid a 20-year contract.

"(Judge) was asking me about it yesterday and I kind of thought of it on the spot because I remember he did it last year,” Volpe said about kissing the NY. “Right when I brought it up, he gave me the thumbs up."

Volpe got another huge ovation when he first came to the plate and the crowd was on its feet during his entire at-bat – "It almost felt like he was chasing 62 there his first at-bat,” Judge joked – and he worked a seven-pitch walk against a very tough pitcher. Again, Webb limited righties to a .216/.250/.288 (.245 wOBA) line last year. Volpe then stole second after coaxing a pickoff throw from Webb while literally standing on first base.

The seventh inning at-bat is one Volpe wants back. He took huge cuts and swung through two fastballs in the zone with runners on the corners and one out, and struck out. Looked like a kid trying to be a hero there. It happens. Otherwise Volpe made all the plays defensively and had a solid yet largely uneventful debut. Better days are ahead. This kid’s gonna be so much fun.

"It was probably the most fun day of my entire life,” Volpe said. “The pregame festivities – I probably had goosebumps the whole day – just to be out there and feel like I got welcomed by the fans the way I did, and then be able to go out and just play. That was the best part."

Cole sets a franchise record

Lots and lots of strikeouts on Opening Day. Both offenses struck out 16 times and Gerrit Cole and Webb both set new franchise records for strikeouts on Opening Day. Webb fanned 12 batters in six innings. The previous Giants record was 11 strikeouts by Madison Bumgarner against the Diamondbacks on Opening Day 2017. Bumgarner hit two home runs that day too.

Cole struck out 11 batters in six innings and his first seven outs were strikeouts. He fanned 10 of the first 14 batters he faced. As noted, the 11 strikeouts are a new franchise record for Opening Day. Here’s the leaderboard:

1. Gerrit Cole vs. Giants in 2023: 11
2. Tim Leary vs. Tigers in 1991: 9
3. Gerrit Cole vs. Blue Jays in 2021: 8
4. Roger Clemens vs. Athletics in 1999: 8
5. David Cone vs. Mariners in 1998: 8
6. Whitey Ford vs. Senators in 1955: 8

"It was nice to get a lead right out of the chute with Aaron,” Cole said after the game. “To be able to attack the middle of the strike zone, and then we continued to tack on from there and I just tried to be as efficient as I could.”

I didn’t think Cole was all that crisp. He missed above the zone with quite a few fastballs and yanked several sliders into the left-handed batter’s box, and I thought he got away with a bad changeup to Mike Yastrzemski with a runner on base in the fourth inning. Cole fell behind in the count 2-0, ran it back full, then left an 89 mph cambio right there.

Fortunately Yastrzemski was fooled by the change of speeds. Please don’t throw any more changeups there, Gerrit. Cole wasn’t razor sharp and yet he still struck out 11 in six scoreless innings. Even when he’s not at his best, he’s still really good. He’s the best pitcher in baseball to not have a Cy Young, right? Hopefully Cole brings home the hardware this year.

“It was cold. It was tough to feel my hand. I didn’t think my command was great all day,” Cole said. “After the first batter (four-pitch walk), I would have told you I would have been happy to get through five innings. I didn’t quite know how it was going to shake out with the way I started the game. Strikeouts or no strikeouts, I just need to keep the team in the ballgame and hold the lead.”

Cabrera the left fielder

Oswaldo Cabrera started in left field and had a rough Opening Day (0-for-4 with four strikeouts), but it sounds like he will be the guy there moving forward. Boone told Joel Sherman that Cabrera won the left field job and Aaron Hicks will play mostly against lefties. Cabrera will move around some, which I guess is how they’ll get Franchy Cordero into the lineup against righties.

“I just feel like Oswaldo’s kind of earned it,” Boone said about starting Cabrera on Opening Day. “Obviously what he was able to do for us last year, and then he came in and had a really good spring, as did Aaron. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Hicks, especially the last couple of weeks of Spring Training. I feel like the at-bats, the edge, everything has been there. So he’s going to play a huge role.”

This is of course the correct move. Cabrera is the best player for the job and Hicks should have to play his way back into the lineup. Hicks was better against righties than lefties last season, but a) he was bad against both (92 wRC+ vs. 86 wRC+), and b) he has been better against lefties than righties throughout his career (103 wRC+ vs. 96 wRC+). Lineup spots must be earned.

The Yankees are tentatively scheduled to face only two lefties the first three weeks of the season: Matt Strahm (Phillies) next week and Cole Irvin (Orioles) next weekend. After that O’s series, the Yankees play the Guardians and Twins, who have all-righty rotations. This could change in an instant, but right now, it looks like we may not see Hicks much the next few weeks. Not mad about it.

As for Cabrera, if the Yankees knew he would be the left fielder, they probably should have given him more than 18 innings in left field in Spring Training. The kid doesn’t exactly have a wealth of experience out there. At least he’ll be in the lineup though. The Yankees need the thump and lefty bat, and the energy too. Cabrera had a rough Opening Day, but it’s just one game. He'll be fine.

Miscellany

Gleyber Torres, who I feel like half the fan base is ready to trade for any pitcher with a pulse, lifted a two-run home run into the short porch to give the Yankees breathing room. Webb allowed two homers in his final 68 innings last season and two homers in his first four innings this year. Life in the NL West must be nice. Torres started at DH, though that won’t be a regular occurrence. Giancarlo Stanton will get a bunch of time at DH, and Boone said he plans to rotate guys through the DH spot whenever possible … Boone’s bullpen usage was a bit weird. Jonathan Loáisiga threw two pitches to get the final out of the seventh inning, then Ron Marinaccio threw a career high 39 pitches in two innings to finish the game while Clay Holmes warmed up. With the off-day Friday, why not use someone else (like Holmes since was already up) instead of pushing Marinaccio like that? Eh, whatever. Marinaccio looked pretty nasty though … And finally, DJ LeMahieu went 1-for-4 with three strikeouts on Opening Day. It’s only the fourth time he’s struck out three times in his career (1,426 games). Huh. Very un-LeMahieu-like.

2. Yankees add Brewer. Prior to Thursday’s game, Aaron Boone strongly hinted the Yankees had a move coming to add a pitcher. They announced the move following the Opening Day win and it is decidedly unsexy: Colten Brewer came over in a cash trade with the Rays. The right-hander used an opt out, and Tampa traded him for cash rather than let him go for nothing.

“We’re going with just seven guys in the pen obviously with an off-day tomorrow,” Boone said prior to the Opening Day win. “We have a potential deal going that’ll probably change that moving forward in the next day or two. A pitcher could be in play for us.”

Longtime RAB readers and hardcore DotF fans will remember Brewer from his brief time in the farm system. The Yankees took him from the Pirates in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft in December 2016 and he pitched to a 2.82 ERA (2.35 FIP) with 26.3% strikeouts and 6.1% walks in 60.2 innings at three levels in 2017. He then became a minor league free agent after the season.

Brewer, 30, bounced from the Padres to the Red Sox to the Cubs to the Royals the last five years. He has a career 5.04 ERA (4.99 FIP) in 91 big league innings, and he posted a 4.76 ERA (5.20 FIP) with 24.9% strikeouts and 10.4% walks in 39.2 innings with Kansas City’s Triple-A affiliate last season. Brewer is a big spin rate guy.

He’s similar to a right-handed Lucas Luetge, albeit with mid-90s gas. Brewer spins the crap out of cutters, sliders, and curveballs, and he doesn’t always throw strikes. I’m a little surprised the Yankees went with Brewer over Greg Weissert (or Ian Hamilton), but I guess it’s not Brewer or Weissert, it’s Brewer and Weissert. The Yankees added another body for depth.

The Yankees have not said anything, though I assume Brewer is going on the 26-man roster and will join the bullpen in a day or two (Frankie Montas can slide onto the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot). The question is how do the Yankees clear the 26-man roster spot? They have 14 position players and 12 pitchers on the roster, so a position player will go.

We’ve all kinda assumed Estevan Florial is on borrowed time, and he might be, but he did play Opening Day. He pinch-ran and replaced Giancarlo Stanton defensively in the ninth inning. If there were a trade in the works, they probably wouldn’t play him and risk injury. Maybe there is no trade and the Yankees will just put Florial on waivers? That seems possible.

I believe Franchy Cordero has a minor league option, so the Yankees could send him to Triple-A to clear a 26-man roster spot for Brewer, which would leave Florial as the fourth outfielder. Florial can run and play defense, but the Yankees don’t want him hitting, so I dunno. I think Florial will be designated for assignment, buying the Yankees a few more days. We’ll see. For now, Brewer is the pitcher move Boone was talking about. He’ll be in pinstripes this weekend.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees asked MLB if they could stop issuing uniform numbers to coaches because they’re running out of numbers for players. The Yankees have 22 retired numbers and 11 coaches on staff, leaving only 67 numbers for players, most of which are closer to 99 than 1. Would anyone even notice if coaches stopped wearing numbers? They always wear hoodies or pullovers anyway. The Yankees were the first team to wear uniform numbers. They can be the first team to wear triple digit numbers too. The sun will still rise in the morning … And finally, the Yankees have an off-day Friday but it is Opening Day for Triple-A Scranton. They’re at home against Buffalo (Blue Jays) and MiLB.tv is included with MLB.tv this year, so you can watch without a separate subscription. The RailRiders have not announced their roster as I write this Thursday night, so we’ll all be surprised together in the morning. Double-A Somerset, High-A Hudson Valley, and Low-A Tampa begin their seasons late next week.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Ovad asks: So now that Volpe officially made the opening day roster, what does his full season projections look like over the various projection websites/systems (Zips, Steamer etc)? And where does it compare to other MLB SS's?

There are a lot of projection systems out there but PECOTA, Steamer, and ZiPS are the best of the bunch for real life baseball (ATC projections are the best for fantasy baseball). Here’s what those three systems say about Anthony Volpe.

PECOTA: .218/.297/.349 (89 DRC+) and +0.8 WARP. Volpe is 19th among full-time shortstops in DRC+ and 20th in WARP, behind CJ Abrams (+1.5 WARP) and tied with Oneil Cruz.

Steamer: .231/.306/.386 (99 wRC+) and +2.4 WAR. Volpe is 16th among full-time shortstops in wRC+ and 17th in WAR, between Jeremy Peña (+2.6 WAR) and Abrams (+2.3 WAR).

ZiPS: .234/.318/.407 (108 wRC+) and +3.5 WAR. Volpe is 12th among full-time shortstops in wRC+ and 11th in WAR, between Wander Franco (+3.7 WAR) and Peña (+3.4 WAR).

I am fairly certain Volpe would be labeled a bust at PECOTA’s projection. The ZiPS projection would be a hell of a season even though there would be batting average complaints. Steamer’s projection is decidedly meh. The definition of middle of the road. (Here’s where I remind you projections are inherently conservative.)

What’s the reaction if Volpe has, say, Andrés Giménez’s career arc? Giménez won a job in Spring Training with the Mets thanks to a precocious feel for the game, then he hit .235/.302/.369 (86 wRC+) in his first two big league seasons, and spent time in Triple-A. It wasn’t until his third season that he broke out as an All-Star caliber player. Do Yankees fans have the patience for that? Do the Yankees have patience for that? I hope we don’t have to find out.

Emiliano asks: If not for the SS competition and now Volpe, Judge would have been the focus this Spring. Do you think this could benefit him (Judge) during the first weeks of the season where all eyes are going to be on Volpe?

It could, sure, but I don’t think we need to worry about how the guy who turned down $213.5M and then had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history will react to having all eyes on him. Nothing really seems to faze Aaron Judge. So yeah, maybe all the attention being on Anthony Volpe makes life easier for Judge, but I don’t think it matters to him anyway.

Greg asks: If we optimistically see Volpe taking and running with SS for the foreseeable future, do you believe Peraza is most likely a trade chip, Gleyber’s replacement or do they look to move him around this year and possibly be Bader’s replacement in CF?

I touched on this in my bold predictions earlier this week. The Yankees view Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe as their middle infield of the future, which means Peraza will be Gleyber Torres’ eventual successor. Maybe it’s Volpe at second and Peraza at short, but Torres is the one who has to go to make it work, so that means Peraza will effectively replace Gleyber. How soon that happens, I don’t know. The Yankees have resisted trade inquiries into Peraza and they’ve shown little interest in changing his position. I believe they have their heart set on a Peraza-Volpe double play combination and Torres will be moved to make it work.

Jonathan asks: Everyone is trying to trade Torres but I'm a fan so (1) what would an extension now look like and (2) would you do it?

I’ve mentioned this before but Gleyber Torres is at a service time level (two years away from free agency as a Super Two) where not many players sign extensions. The last position player at this service time level to sign a long-term deal (5+ years) was Brandon Belt in 2016. He got six years and $79M.

Players at this service time level have made good money already and they can see free agency approaching. Gleyber’s career earnings will be over $24M by the end of the season, and he’s gonna hit the market at age 28. He’s poised to bet on himself these next two years and become a free agent at a prime age. Even if 2022 is his ceiling, Torres is a $100M player, easy.

If you’re Torres and you’re discussing an extension, you don’t want a 4-5 year deal, right? That sends you out into free agency at age 30-31. You either want a short enough contract that you still become a free agent in your 20s, when teams pay the most, or a long-term deal that takes you deep into your 30s. Gleyber is two years away from free agency at a lucrative age.

Because there are no recent extensions for players at this service time level, we have to spitball a contract for Torres. How’s this look?

• 2023: $9.95M (agreed to salary) (third arb year)
• 2024: $14M (fourth arb year)
• 2025-32: $20M per year (free agent years)

Not including 2023, that’s a nine-year contract worth $194M covering Gleyber’s age 27-35 seasons. Marcus Semien got seven years and $175M covering ages 31-37, for comparison. My Torres hypothetical is not a super long Trea Turner/Xander Bogaerts contract that locks him up through age 40. It takes him through age 35, the same age Dansby Swanson is signed through.

Maybe that’s too rich for Torres, but he’s going to be a young free agent and he’s been a +3 WAR middle infielder in three of his four 162-game seasons. And free agency went into overdrive this offseason. If anything, $20M a year for free agent years is too low considering Nico Hoerner just got $20M for his first free agent year. Nick Hoerner!

As for whether I’d do it, nah, I don't think so. The Yankees have young players at the same position. With ownership unwilling to really jack up payroll, use the money to address other long-term needs and turn the middle infield over to the kids. I don’t want the Yankees to move on from Torres, but I am open to it, and it does make sense given the roster and who they have coming.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)