March 28th, 2023: Brito, Opening Day Roster, Bold Predictions

It was a busy weekend in Yankeeland. Some good news (Anthony Volpe won the shortstop job!) and some bad news (Luis Severino is hurt again). So it goes. The new season is only a few days away. Let’s get to the final post of Spring Training.

1. Grapefruit League observations. The Florida portion of Spring Training is over. The Yankees left Tampa with a 13-17-2 record and a +7 run differential during Grapefruit League play. They’ll wrap up their exhibition schedule with a game at Nationals Park on Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday is an off-day, then Thursday is Game 1 of 162. I can’t wait. Here are the last batch of Grapefruit League thoughts.

Brito aces audition

I’m not sure it was an audition, honestly. It felt more like a guy locked into a rotation spot preparing for the regular season. With Luis Severino hurt, Brito is the odds-on favorite to step into the rotation, and he dazzled Sunday against a representative Blue Jays lineup: 5.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K (video). Brito retired all 16 batters he faced and only two of the 16 hit the ball out of the infield.

“That was great,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after the game. “He’s got our attention all camp. He’s earned a strong reputation throughout player development. He was very at ease doing what he was doing today. It was good to see.”

The only negative to Brito’s outing is his pitch count: 58. Unless this was one of those “light day in his final spring start” games (similar to what we saw the Phillies do with Aaron Nola Saturday), Brito is not especially stretched out. He’s good for maybe four innings in his first regular season start, possibly five. The bullpen will be used quite a bit that day.

As things stand Brito is lined up to start the third game of the regular season. Nestor Cortes will start Tuesday’s exhibition finale at Nationals Park, and while he could start the third game of the season on normal rest, the Yankees don’t want to push it after the hamstring injury. He’ll start the fourth game and Brito is lined up for the third game. This is the not-yet-official rotation plan:

• Thursday, March 30th vs. Giants: Gerrit Cole
• Friday, March 31st: off-day
• Saturday, April 1st vs. Giants: Clarke Schmidt
• Sunday, April 2nd vs. Giants: Jhony Brito
• Monday, April 3rd vs. Phillies: Nestor Cortes
• Tuesday, April 4th vs. Phillies: Domingo Germán

If you’d have told me a few weeks ago Brito would make a start before Cortes, Severino, and Carlos Rodón this season, I would’ve said something must have gone terribly wrong. I’d say Rodón and Severino getting hurt in camp qualifies as terribly wrong. It’s funny though, the non-Yankees people I know all say the Yankees will figure it out and be fine.

Anyway, Spring Training performance is generally meaningless, but for a guy like Brito, it does matter. He had to pitch well to put himself in consideration to replace Severino – does Brito get the job if he allows 17 runs in 5.2 innings this spring like Tyler Danish? (nope) – and Sunday’s outing was a nice confidence builder heading into his MLB debut. That matters.

Brito, my No. 20 prospect, was having a strong spring even before Sunday’s outing. Will Warren and Randy Vásquez are better prospects, but neither has pitched in Triple-A yet, and Brito has had success at that level. He sits 95-97 mph with his fastball, has an above-average changeup, and he doesn’t beat himself with walks. As a fill-in No. 5 starter, that’ll work. Sunday’s outing made me less nervous about Brito, even if it is only false confidence.

“I didn’t come into camp thinking there was a chance, but unfortunately injuries do happen,” Brito told Hoch. “I’ve been able to spend a lot of time with some of those guys and they’ve been able to share a lot of knowledge with me. You understand you have a job to do and you want to be able to pitch when the team calls you.”

Opening Day roster coming together

The Yankees won’t officially announce their Opening Day roster until sometime Thursday morning, but we can piece it together based on the latest roster moves. Most notably, Matt Krook and Oswald Peraza were optioned to Triple-A. Peraza won’t be on the bench and Krook won’t be in the bullpen. Throwing 10 straight balls to open Sunday’s outing probably didn’t help him.

Boone told Hoch that Albert Abreu and Jimmy Cordero have made the bullpen (Cordero confirmed he is out of options, per Brendan Kuty), and Jack Curry confirmed Oswaldo Cabrera was told he’s made the Opening Day roster. I’m not sure Jack or anyone else needed to confirm that, but it’s been confirmed. Abreu and Cordero (and Cabrera) have all made it.

Assuming Brito will indeed replace Severino, the last spot on the bench and the last spot in the bullpen are the only undecided spots. Here’s the updated Spring Training roster. Crossed out means the player has been sent to minor league camp and asterisk means the player is out of options and must pass through waivers to go to the minors:

Carrying an actual outfielder on the bench would be smart and yep, the last bench spot is down to Willie Calhoun, Estevan Florial, and Rafael Ortega. Three actual outfielders. The last bullpen spot is down to Ian Hamilton and Greg Weissert. The Yankees have plenty of 60-day injured list candidates and 40-man roster flexibility. No concerns or potential hang-ups there.

The bench spot decision could depend on Isiah Kiner-Falefa and how comfortable the Yankees are with him in the outfield. If they’re okay running him out there, carrying the defensively challenged (but left-handed hitting with few strikeouts) Calhoun becomes a bit easier. If the Yankees determine outfield defense is a must, Florial or Ortega is the way to go.

Hamilton outpitched Weissert this spring and he can opt out of his contract Tuesday, according to Greg Joyce. That does not necessarily mean he will get the last bullpen spot. Hamilton has an option remaining, so the Yankees can add him to the 40-man roster to prevent him from using the opt out, then simply send him to Triple-A and put Weissert on the Opening Day roster.

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter who gets that last bullpen spot because it will be a revolving door the first few weeks of the season anyway (always is). During in-game YES Network interviews Monday, Boone (video) and Brian Cashman (video) said the Yankees are keeping an eye on the rest of the league (opt outs, releases, etc.), so there could be something coming from outside the organization.

“It’s possible,” Cashman told Chris Kirschner about making a last minute move. “Dialogue is ongoing. It’s always hard to pull off anything but you have to go through the motions to see if it’s possible.”

Here is the travel roster for Tuesday's game in Washington DC. Calhoun, Florial, Ortega, Hamilton, and Weissert are all making the trip. I think we’ll get an unofficial Opening Day roster announcement sometime Tuesday (likely after the game) when the Yankees announce a bunch of roster cuts and we see who’s left standing.

Yankees sign Godoy

Two weeks ago I offhandedly mentioned José Godoy as a potential depth catcher the Yankees could bring in and wouldn’t you know it, the Yankees signed him (per the MiLB transactions log). Godoy was in camp with the Angels before getting released. Here’s the updated catcher depth chart with Josh Breaux (elbow), Ben Rortvedt (aneurysm), and Austin Wells (rib) still hurt:

• MLB: Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka
• Triple-A: Nick Ciuffo, Rodolfo Durán, and José Godoy
• Double-A: Anthony Seigler, Carlos Narvaez, and Mickey Gasper
• High-A: Antonio Gomez and Ben Rice
• Low-A: Agustin Gomez and Omar Martinez

Godoy, 28, got into 26 big league games with the Mariners, Pirates, and Twins the last two years. His claim to fame is being the 20,000th player in MLB history. Godoy is a career .271/.323/.405 (80 wRC+) hitter in over 600 Triple-A plate appearances. The numbers at Baseball Prospectus rate him as a good framer and a solid defender overall. A good enough No. 3-4 catcher.

Rortvedt could begin hitting and catching this week, though it sounds like Breaux and Wells are a little further away. I wouldn’t say I feel comfortable with Ciuffo and Godoy as next in line, but I feel a lot more comfortable with them than I do Durán and Gasper. For a late spring signing, Godoy is as good a depth catcher as you’ll find. Solid pickup, all things considered.

Miscellany

Rodón threw all his pitches in a 30-pitch bullpen session Monday and told Hoch he is very encouraged by how he felt. It sounds like Rodón will stay behind in Tampa to continue rehabbing and won’t be at Yankee Stadium for pregame introductions on Opening Day, which is a bit lame, but rehab is the priority … I’ve been so consumed by the shortstop competition that Cabrera has flown under my radar this spring. The do-it-all guy is 18-for-53 (.340) with four home runs this spring, and he’s played seven different positions. He told Kirschner he wants to work out behind the plate next offseason so he can be the emergency third catcher, and if the Yankees ever need him on the mound, he’s a submarine pitcher. How can you not love this guy? … And finally, Josh Donaldson jumped on a hanger and took Aaron Nola deep Saturday (video). He is 5-for-9 with a double, three homers, two walks, and no strikeouts since changing his setup at the plate. Fingers crossed this isn’t a tease and there’s actually something to it. Getting even a 110 wRC+ from Donaldson would be such a big lift for the offense.

2. Bold predictions for 2023. Opening Day is two days away and it is time, once again, for my annual bold predictions. I went 5-for-10 last year after going 1-for-20 the previous four years combined. Enough with the pleasantries. Here are my bold predictions for the 2023 Yankees.

1. Judge will cut his strikeout rate to 22%

The home runs and all-around excellence have made it easy to overlook Aaron Judge significantly improving his contact rates the last few years. As a rookie in 2017, he posted a 30.7% strikeout rate and a 13.1% swinging strike rate. Judge whittled those numbers down to 25.1% and 11.6% last year. The MLB average is an 11.2% swinging strike rate! Judge was damn close to that.

Judge’s improved contact ability has been gradual over the years and I’m boldly predicting it will continue improving again this year, to the point where he cuts his strikeout rate to 22%. The MLB average was a 22.4% strikeout rate last season, for reference. That’s down from 23.2% in 2022 (hooray universal DH) but still the fourth highest single-season strikeout rate in baseball history.

This past offseason Judge spent time working out with Paul Goldschmidt. They crossed paths at All-Star Games and both live in Florida, so they hooked up and hit together a bunch, and picked each other’s brains. I guess that’s what reigning MVPs do in the offseason. Specifically, Judge spoke to Goldschmidt about his two-strike approach.

“Getting a chance to talk with Goldy, he’s a bigger right-handed hitter that still hits for power without a leg kick. That always enticed me a little bit,” Judge told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) early in camp. “… Some guys make adjustments with the no-stride and they kind of lose their power and kind of fight it off. I don’t want to be that type of guy. I want to still have a little bit of power, a little bit of juice, and keep that going.”

Relative to the league average, Judge and Goldschmidt are both outstanding two-strike hitters, but Goldschmidt is on another level. He’s arguably the best two-strike hitter in the sport. Here are their 2022 numbers in two-strike counts:

Judge has adopted Goldschmidt’s no-stride approach this spring and he has been selective with it. With runners on base, he goes no-stride and focuses on putting the ball in play. With the bases empty and two outs, Judge goes with his usual leg kick. In that situation you might as well take a rip and try to put a ball in the seats, you know? Here’s the GIF:

Those are all home runs to right field in two-strike counts. Goldschmidt used the no-stride as he always does in two-strike counts. Judge used his leg kick on last year’s homer and the no-stride on this spring’s homer (there were two runners on base). Plenty of hitters, including Gleyber Torres, go with the no-stride in two-strike counts. It is new for Judge though.

“(Goldschmidt) has a smaller, little stride and kind of waits there. That’s something I want to mix in. So I asked, ‘How do you do that? What’s your thought process in this situation or that?’” Judge told Joel Sherman. “... How can I get the barrel on the baseball 10% or 15% more?”

With the no-stride Judge is running a 15.6% strikeout rate this spring, and he’s cut his whiffs-per-swing rate to 12.0% (!) in two-strike counts. That whiffs-per-swing rate is unsustainably low and it’s a small sample size in Spring Training, but Judge isn’t striking out much and he’s certainly not swinging and missing much in two-strike counts. I am intrigued.

I am intrigued enough and I believe so much in Judge’s ability to make adjustments that my first bold prediction is this new Goldschmidt-inspired two-strike approach will allow Judge to trim his strikeout rate to 22%. Shaving three percentage points off last year’s strikeout rate will be a tall order, but Judge went from 28.1% in 2020 to 25.0% in 2021. He’s done it already!

The difference between Judge’s 25.1% strikeout rate last year and a 22% strikeout rate is 22 strikeouts, so we’re talking about one fewer strikeout every seven games or so. And that’s 22 outs turned into something else. Maybe hits, maybe walks, maybe 6-4-3 double plays. Given who he is, I suspect Judge would have turned those 22 outs into something very productive.

2. Three Yankees will have 10+ saves

For the first time in a very long time, the Yankees do not have a big money reliever. They paid Mariano Rivera handsomely for a long time (justifiably so), then guys like Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and Rafael Soriano pulled in eight-figure salaries (Andrew Miller was a shade below them at $9M annually). Tommy Kahnle is the team’s highest paid reliever at $5.75M this year.

The Yankees will pay top of the market salaries to get an elite closer. When Chapman’s performance necessitated a change in the ninth inning last year, they made it, but Chapman was The Guy to start the season. Clay Holmes was an All-Star last year and the closed most of the year, but Boone left the door open for mixing and matching this summer.

“I would expect (Holmes) to close a lot of games for us. Probably most games and hopefully a lot of games. But I do see a number of guys getting saves,” Aaron Boone told Andy Martino early in camp. “... There are going to be days where if it’s (George) Springer, (Bo) Bichette, and Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) coming up in the eighth inning in a big spot, that might be Clay.”

For this bold prediction, I will say the Yankees really lean into the closer-by-matchups approach and have three pitchers finish the season with double-digit saves. It would be uncommon but not unprecedented. Twenty-three teams have had three guys save at least 10 games, most recently the 2021 Mariners (Kendall Graveman, Paul Seward, Drew Steckenrider).

The Yankees have never had three guys with 10 saves, and on only 11 occasions have they had two pitchers with double-digit saves. Here are the last five times they’ve done it:

• 2017: Dellin Betances (10) and Aroldis Chapman (22)
• 2016: Dellin Betances (12) and Aroldis Chapman (36)
• 2002: Steve Karsay (12) and Mariano Rivera (28)
• 1989: Lee Guetterman (13) and Dave Righetti (25)
• 1988: Cecilio Guante (11) and Dave Righetti (25)

The lack of a big money “this is our guy” reliever and the apparent willingness to mix and match in the late innings sets the Yankees up to spread the saves around. Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Wandy Peralta seem most likely to get 10+ saves, but don’t sleep on Mike King or even Ron Marinaccio. They could always trade for a capital-C Closer at the deadline too.

I’m not going to bother to pick names for this bold prediction. I will only say the Yankees will have three pitchers finish the season with at least 10 saves. The game – and the Yankees’ roster construction – is trending toward mixing and matching and spreading saves around. This year the Yankees will do it to an extent they’ve never done it before.

3. The Yankees will steal 150 bases

I’ve heard a few players and broadcasters say this will be the Year of the Stolen Base, and while I understand the sentiment, I don’t agree with the framing. 2019 was the Year of the Home Run because home run records were shattered with the rocket ball. Stolen bases will go up this year, but I don’t think we’re headed back to the stolen base halcyon days of the 1980s.

Anyway, stolen bases will go up this season because MLB implemented new rules encouraging stolen bases. Pitchers get only two disengagements per plate appearance (pickoff throws, step offs, etc.) and the bases themselves are larger. Here’s a table I made for a recent CBS post:

Stolen base attempts are up and the stolen base success rate is up, which is exactly what MLB wanted. More running, more players showcasing their athleticism, and more stuff happening on the field in general. People smarter than me anticipate a 30% increase in stolen bases, which is consistent with the increase in the minors when these rules were tested down there.

The Yankees stole 102 bases last year, eighth most in baseball, and their most since stealing 112 bases in 2014 (Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner combined for 60 of those 112 steals). The Yankees ranked 11th with a 76% success rate last year. Isiah Kiner-Falefa led the Yankees with 22 steals. Judge (16), Aaron Hicks (10), and Torres (10) were in double digits as well.

From 2016-21, the Yankees averaged 68 steals with a 76% success rate in 162-game seasons. Those 102 steals last year weren’t just their most since 2014. They were by far their most since 2014. Kiner-Falefa was a big boost, and Judge stole 16 bases after stealing 15 total from 2018-21 (contract year stat padding? no judgment here). Stolen bases are not this team’s thing.

That will change this season thanks to the new rules and thanks to some new personnel. My next bold prediction calls for the Yankees to steal 150 bases this season. That’s a big number. The 2016 Brewers are the last team to steal 150 bases, and the Yankees haven’t stolen 150 bases in a season since 2001. Their stolen base leaders that year:

1. Alfonso Soriano: 43-for-57 (75%)
2. Chuck Knoblauch: 38-for-47 (81%)
3. Derek Jeter: 27-for-30 (90%)
4. Paul O’Neill: 22-for-25 (88%)

O’Neill stole a career high 22 bases and attempted a career high 25 steals at age 38 in 2001. He really let it all hang out in his final season, eh? Those four guys combined for 130 of the team’s 161 stolen bases that year, or 81%. The steals were concentrated among four players.

Going from 102 steals last year to 150 steals this year is a 47% increase, way higher than the 30% increase expected as result of the new rules. Personnel will close the gap. Specifically:

• Harrison Bader: Stole 17 bags in only 86 games last year. This oblique injury throws a wrench into things, so my prediction is a bet he stays on the field once he returns.
• Oswaldo Cabrera: The power breakout got the headlines, but he stole 34 bases in 170 minor league games the last two years. Cabrera will play a lot and swipe some bags.
• The shortstop: whoever it is

Anthony Volpe went 50-for-57 (88%) stealing bases last year. Oswald Peraza went 35-for-40 (88%) between Triple-A and MLB. Volpe is the shortstop, but even if Peraza (or Kiner-Falefa) has to replace him at some point, the shortstop will steal a lot of bases. The new rules plus Bader plus Cabrera plus the shortstop is the path to 150 stolen bases.

4. Cabrera will play seven different positions

Friday night Cabrera did something you don’t see very often, even in Spring Training. He started the game at first base, then moved to center field in the middle innings. Cabrera is the super utility guy the Yankees have been trying to develop for the better part of a decade, and he has played seven positions this spring (first, second, third, short, all three outfield spots).

“We’re going to keep it at seven (positions),” Boone jokingly told Mark Sanchez when asked about Cabrera’s versatility last week.

Doing it in Spring Training and doing it during meaningful regular season games are two different things, and for this bold prediction, I am saying Cabrera will indeed play seven different positions in 2023. Every position except pitcher and catcher. Only three times in franchise history has a player appeared in at least one game at every non-pitcher and non-catcher position:

• Wid Conroy, 1905
• George Moriarty, 1907
• Clay Bellinger, 2000

The New York Highlanders became the New York Yankees in 1913, so Bellinger is the only player to do it in Yankees history. Many players have come close, including Marwin Gonzalez last year (he didn’t play center), but only those three have done it. This year, I predict Cabrera will do it. At least one game at all four infield positions and all three outfield positions.

I’m sweating center field and shortstop the most. Bader’s injury opens up center field playing time early in the season, though I think the Yankees would put Judge and Hicks out there before Cabrera. As for shortstop, I think Kiner-Falefa will be the primary backup, plus Peraza looms should Volpe miss an extended period of time or get demoted. Getting action at first and second could be a challenge with DJ LeMahieu on the roster too.

There are some roadblocks at shortstop and in center field, but it’s a long season, and I think Cabrera will find himself at both positions at some point. The other five positions shouldn’t be too difficult. Bellinger hit .207/.288/.370 (66 wRC+) during his seven-position season in 2000. I think Cabrera will be quite a bit better than that, though offense is not part of this bold prediction. At least one game at first, second, third, short, left, right, and center. That’s the call.

5. Volpe will hit for the cycle

We’ve seen several cool individual moments in recent years. Corey Kluber threw a no-hitter and the Yankees turned three triple plays in a month’s time in 2021, Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton hit ultimate grand slams last year, etc. I tend to go big picture with my bold predictions. For this one, I’ll get a little more specific and break it down to an individual game level.

This bold prediction: Volpe becomes the first Yankee to hit for the cycle since Melky Cabrera in 2009. Twenty-one of the other 29 teams have had a cycle since the Yankees last had one. The last five Yankees to hit for the cycle:

• Aug. 2nd, 2009: Melky Cabrera at White Sox
• Sept. 3rd, 1995: Tony Fernandez vs. Athletics
• Aug. 29th, 1972: Bobby Murcer vs. Rangers
• July 23rd, 1957: Mickey Mantle vs. White Sox
• May 20th, 1948: Joe DiMaggio at White Sox

Volpe has a skill set conducive to cycles. He uses all fields, has the power to jump the yard, and has enough speed and more than enough baserunning aggressiveness to push the envelope for triples. The kid is an extra-base hit machine. Ten of his 16 hits this spring have gone for extra bases and 52% of his minor league hits the last two years went for extra bases. The cycle is three-quarters extra-base hits and Volpe racks ‘em up.

Let’s get oddly specific. The White Sox have been on the business end of three of the last five Yankees cycles, so let’s make it four of the last six. Volpe will hit for the cycle on Wednesday, June 7th, against the ChiSox. It will be the first regular season cycle in new Yankee Stadium history (Brock Holt had that ALDS cycle a few years ago). It has been foretold.

6. Abreu becomes the next great Yankees reliever

I’ve made bold predictions every year since 2017 and the one I’m most proud of came that first year, when I called Chad Green becoming the next great Yankees reliever. He had some good moments as a starter in 2016 (remember this game?), but his lack of secondary pitches was obvious. The fastball was so good that I figured Green would dominate in relief, and dominate he did.

I’m going back to the “this guy becomes a great reliever” well and I’m going out on a bigger limb with Albert Abreu. Abreu got hammered Friday, so his spring numbers (9.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR) are a lot worse than he’s looked on the mound. This bold prediction is a bet on the stuff and Abreu’s newfound control. You remember what he did last year, right?

• Rangers and Royals: 25.0% walks and 43.5% zone rate in 13 innings
• Yankees: 5.7% walks and 46.1% zone rate in 25 innings

Abreu walked a batter in his first two appearances back with the Yankees last year. He walked just four of the 96 batters he faced the rest of the season, and he’s walked one of the 37 batters he’s faced this spring. This is a guy with a career 11.1% walk rate in the minors. Now Abreu’s walked only five of the last 133 batters he’s faced dating back to last season. Who is this guy?

I would have a much harder time buying into Abreu without Holmes. Holmes was a hard-throwing sinker specialist with control problems, just like Abreu, and the Yankees got him to throw more strikes seemingly overnight. Holmes had a career 14.9% walk rate with the Pirates. It’s 6.6% with the Yankees and it was 3.9% after the trade in 2021 (7.7% in 2022).

“With him it seems simple. Like hey, your sinker is really good, throw it over the plate more,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Ron Blum about Holmes. “It’s not always that easy with guys, but in this instance, he took to it. He understood he had a big margin for error and he might have been nibbling more than he needed to and kind of gave him some safer areas to throw the ball.”

That’s what the Yankees did with Holmes and that seems to be what they did with Abreu too. Maybe he had to go to the Rangers and Royals before things finally clicked, but I think it has clicked. The Yankees claimed Abreu on waivers last June 21st. Here are his sinker location heat maps before that date (every year, not just 2022) and since that date (including this spring). It’s 321 sinkers before and 293 sinkers after:

It was scattershot before rejoining the Yankees last June 21st. Abreu was all over the place with his sinker, including up in the zone, which is not where sinkers belong. Since rejoining the Yankees, Abreu’s kept the sinker mostly confined to down and over the plate. Sometimes the light bulb goes on and a guy learns how to throw strikes. I think it happened with Abreu.

And this isn’t Ryan Weber slinging an upper-80s sinker either. Abreu’s sinker sits 97-99 mph and velocity buys you some margin of error. He’s pounding the zone with a heavy sinker, and I boldly predict Abreu will pitch his way into the Circle of Trust™. We can debate what exactly qualifies as a “great” reliever, but you know one when you see one, and Abreu will become one in 2023.

7. Torres will be traded for an outfielder

The idea that the Yankees won’t trade away a productive MLB player at the deadline went out the window last year when they sent Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals for Bader. They traded Montgomery for MLB help and had a replacement starter lined up (Frankie Montas), but the fact is they subtracted a good player from their roster in the middle of the season.

I am boldly predicting the Yankees will do that again this year – subtract a player from their big league roster at the deadline – with Gleyber Torres. I’m not opposed to trading Gleyber (I traded him in my last two offseason plans) but I don’t think the Yankees should be in a rush to move him either, and I don’t think they are. That’s why the trade won’t happen until the deadline.

The Yankees are all-in on Peraza and Volpe as their long-term middle infield and you don’t have to take my word for it. Hal Steinbrenner said it himself two weeks ago. From Randy Miller:

“I remember standing right here a year ago and we were talking about (Carlos) Correa,” Steinbrenner said. “I talked about Peraza and I talked about Volpe. I said, ‘Look, as far as I’m concerned, they’re going to be the middle of our infield for many years to come if all goes well,’ and they both had great years in the minor leagues. We’re getting closer.”

Torres is two years away from free agency and that does not jibe with Peraza’s and Volpe’s timeline at all. Volpe is in the big leagues now and Peraza should be, but there’s no room for him. I think the Yankees win more games the next two years with a Volpe-Torres middle infield than a Peraza-Volpe middle infield, but I also think there’s no chance they wait that long to turn Peraza loose (nor should they).

So, trading Torres to clear an infield spot for Peraza this summer is my predicted outcome. The Yankees pretty clearly aren’t re-signing Gleyber in two years and their infield prospects are ready right now. Trading Torres gives the Yankees the middle infield they want, nets them some talent in return, and possibly saves them cash as well (depending on the trade).

I do not think the Yankees will trade Torres for prospects. I expect them to pull a Montgomery and trade him for immediate MLB help. I know “Torres for a pitcher” is a popular talking point at the moment but I boldly predict the Yankees will instead trade him for an outfielder, specifically one with control beyond this season.

Montgomery for Bader matched up perfectly. It was 1.5 years of Montgomery for 1.5 years of Bader. Trading 1.5 years of Torres for 1.5 years of an outfielder could work, though there aren’t too many of those guys available. The list includes Max Kepler, Austin Meadows, Tyler O’Neill, Victor Robles, Anthony Santander, Austin Slater, Juan Soto, and Alex Verdugo.

Soto ain’t happening. I’d bet against an intradivision trade for Santander or Verdugo. Neither Meadows nor Robles make sense because their teams are rebuilding and have little use for Torres. Kepler is pretty meh and Slater is a platoon righty bat. Torres for O’Neill? O’Neill is a Statcast superstar and the Yankees love those guys, and the Cardinals could fit Gleyber at second base by moving Brendan Donovan to the outfield. Here’s O’Neill in 2021:

Given who’s available, maybe it’s not 1.5 years of Torres for 1.5 years of an outfielder. Maybe the Yankees will work out a trade for an outfielder with longer term control like, say, 2.5 years of Mike Yastrzemski. The Giants are loaded with outfielders and their infield is pretty sketchy. Something like that could make sense for both sides. I dunno, just spitballing.

The bold prediction is Torres will be dealt at the trade deadline for an outfielder under contract or control beyond 2023, paving the way for the Peraza-Volpe middle infield the owner wants. I’m not going to bother predicting the outfielder, just that the player will be a Yankee beyond 2023. Torres is a goner at the deadline.

8. The Yankees will not have a top 10 offense

Concerned isn’t the right word but I am skeptical the Yankees have a top tier offense. They’re counting on several guys in their mid-30s to either stay healthy (LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo), have a bounceback season (Donaldson), or both (Stanton). This group comes with downside risk. Judge is likely to be merely excellent rather than otherworldly too.

Torres and Volpe are the only regulars under 30, at least until Bader returns (his injury history is another concern) and/or Cabrera forces his way into the lineup full-time. How many hitters on this roster can you say still have their best years ahead of them? Four, maybe five depending on your opinion of Jose Trevino? Like I said, there’s downside risk.

For this bold prediction, I will say the Yankees do not have a top 10 offense. You needn’t look back far to see the last time that was true. The Yankees were barely a top 10 offense in 2021, and they were only 10 that year if you ignore how many runs they actually scored. Here are their ranks the last few years:

• 2022: 2nd in wRC+ and 2nd in runs per game
• 2021: 10th in wRC+ and 19th in runs per game
• 2019: 2nd in wRC+ and 1st in runs per game
• 2018: 2nd in wRC+ and 2nd in runs per game
• 2017: 2nd in wRC+ and 2nd in runs per game
• 2016: 24th in wRC+ and 22nd in runs per game (last time they missed the postseason)

For what it’s worth, FanGraphs projects the Yankees to be ninth in runs per game and PECOTA has them tenth, so it’s not just me that’s skeptical. The objective projection systems don’t love the offense either. You can make up for a non-elite offense with good pitching and defense – there are two ways to improve run differential! – but an elite offense would be nice too.

General rule of thumb: don’t bet against the Yankees. Folks have been predicting the demise of the Yankees (they’re old, they have too many injuries, this is the year it falls apart, etc.) for two decades now, and it hasn’t happened. I am likely to be wrong here, which I guess is why this prediction qualifies as bold. I just see enough pitfalls to forecast the offense finishing outside the top 10.

9. The Yankees will use 17 different starters

The Yankees used a franchise record 18 different starting pitchers in 1946 and there was a lot of stat padding in doubleheaders. Nine of those 18 pitchers started no more than three games, and six started just one game. Twenty-four doubleheaders, including six in a 14-day span in August, will do that. Here’s the all-time franchise leaderboard for starters used:

1. 1946: 18
2. 1989: 16
3. 1915: 16
4. Several years tied with 15

My penultimate bold prediction calls for the Yankees to fall just short of the franchise record and use 17 different starters this season. It’s not as crazy it sounds! They used 11 different starters last year despite good health, and they used 15 starters in 2021. Fourteen teams used at least 17 starters within the last three 162-game seasons, including the 106-win Dodgers in 2021.

The way I see it, I’m already ahead of the game. There’s the Opening Day rotation (Jhony Brito, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt), then Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino get me to seven when they return. Montas could be eight later in the season. Make a trade at the deadline and that’s nine. Randy Vásquez could make a spot start(s), the Yankees could use a few openers, they could give a rando a late season spot start a la Chi Chi González, etc. It adds up quick.

Even with Severino missing two months, the Yankees got 133 starts from their Opening Day rotation last season, and it feels like the baseball gods are making them pay for it this year. Rodón and Severino are hurt, Cortes had his hamstring scare, etc. Using 17 starters is not necessarily a season-killer, though it can make things feel a little hectic. I think the Yankees are headed for some rotation chaos this summer. Things went a little too smoothly last year.

10. Domínguez finishes 2023 as a top five prospect in baseball

Remember when Jasson Domínguez hit .455/.520/1.046 with four home runs in 25 Grapefruit League plate appearances before being reassigned to minor league camp? That ruled so much. Domínguez showed off uncommon power for a 20-year-old and good plate discipline. Three walks and three strikeouts in those 25 plate appearances. It was a fun spring.

With Volpe (and also Peraza) set to graduate to the big leagues, Domínguez will soon assume his rightful place atop the Yankees’ prospect rankings, and I boldly predict he will finish the season as one of the five best prospects in baseball. The kid has done nothing but get better the last two years, and his strikeout rate improvement last season is awfully encouraging. Here’s this again:

The Mike Trout and Mickey Mantle comparisons did Domínguez a disservice and it felt like there was an overcorrection the other way two years ago. He went from overrated to underrated, and he currently sits in the middle of every top 100 prospects list. There’s no shame in being a top 50-ish prospect. Still, Domínguez has the talent to rank much higher.

It’s not completely out of the question that Domínguez will reach the big leagues this year. Figure a few months in Double-A, a few months in Triple-A, then a late season cameo. That’s possible, though the stupid new September call up limits make it unlikely. It’s much more difficult to give a prospect a taste of the show when you only have one extra position player in September, especially when you're in the race and need to win games.

I don’t think Domínguez will make his MLB debut this season but I do think he’ll have a breakout season (wasn’t last year his breakout season?) between Double-A and Triple-A, and cement himself as one of the game’s top prospects. To be clear, I’m claiming victory if Domínguez is top five on one top 100 list. Top five on every top 100 list would be cool, but one is enough for me.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Andrew Marchand, the YES Network still hopes to launch its direct-to-consumer service in time for Opening Day. If they can’t make it by Thursday, then sometime in April. The DTC will allow fans in the Yankees’ home market to skip cable entirely and subscribe directly to YES, though you’d still need to subscribe to Amazon Prime, Apple TV+, ESPN, FOX, and Peacock to catch every single game, plus likely MLB Network and/or TBS for the postseason. The YES DTC is coming soon though (supposedly) … Pitcher PitchCom is a go for the regular season, reports Ron Blum. MLB okayed it. Several Yankees pitchers used it this spring, including Luis Severino, who said he stopped using it because he kept calling the wrong pitch. I’m not sure how popular pitcher PitchCom will be, but it has been approved … And finally, a few weeks back I mentioned the Yankees may have a City Connect uniform coming. It won’t be this year though. MLB announced the City Connect reveal schedule earlier this week and the Yankees aren’t on it. It’s the Braves, Cardinals, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, and Reds this year. That leaves the Athletics, Blue Jays, Guardians, Mets, Phillies, Tigers, Twins, Rays, and Yankees without one. MLB says it hopes every team will have a City Connect uniform but it is not guaranteed, and yeah, I could absolutely see the Yankees sitting this out because of tradition or whatever.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)