March 24th, 2023: Donaldson, Shortstop, Higashioka, Severino, Kiner-Falefa, Rodón, Kahnle, Rortvedt, Mailbag

How great was the end of the World Baseball Classic? Shohei Ohtani vs. Mike Trout in a one-run game with two outs in the ninth. Incredible. If it were a movie, it would have been cheesy as hell, but it happened in real life and it ruled. The strikeout pitch graded out as an 81 on the 20-80 scouting scale by one of those pitch grader algorithms. That slider was so good it broke the 20-80 scale. Crazy. And hey, the last time Japan won the WBC, the Yankees won the World Series. Good omen? Good omen. See you in 2026, WBC. Now here is today’s post as MLB uses Nestor Cortes and Jose Trevino to promote the pitch clock.

1. Grapefruit League observations. Earlier this week I said veterans like Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton wouldn’t make the two-day trip across the state to play the Nationals and Cardinals, yet there they were, on the trip. Shows what I know. Some thoughts as we enter the final weekend of meaningless spring games.

Donaldson’s adjustment

Josh Donaldson had a two-homer game earlier this week and the second came on a 3-0 swing against Will Vest, a roster bubble reliever. I kinda feel like you should get fined in kangaroo court for that. In all seriousness, Donaldson has made some adjustments at the plate, and very recently too. As in sometimes Sunday or Monday. Here are the slowed down before and after GIFs:

As recently as last Saturday, Donaldson looked like Donaldson. He had his usual setup at the plate, same swing, same everything. Then, on Tuesday, Donaldson was a bit more open, he rested the bat on his shoulder rather than bounce his hands up and down, and he maybe had a little smaller leg kick too. There’s less movement now. Everything is simplified.

“Last year I just kept grinding on it and grinding on it and just wasn’t able to find the spot I wanted to be,” Donaldson told Pete Caldera after the two-homer game. “Just trying to make it as simple as possible. Try to take out some extra moves.”

Since the end of last season Donaldson and the Yankees have said they expect him to be more productive this season without ever giving us a reason to believe it. Then he reported to camp, looked exactly like the guy he was last year, and went 5-for-28 (.179) with eight strikeouts in his first 11 spring games. At least now Donaldson is finally – finally – trying something different.

Will it work? Beats me. Players try new things all the time and some work, some don’t. The two homers will encourage Donaldson to stick with these changes for a little while, but they could be gone in a week or two. I will remind you that Isiah Kiner-Falefa changed his setup at the plate last spring, then rolled everything back a week into the season. Change isn’t always permanent.

Donaldson will play whether we like it or not. If these adjustments get him to, say, a 110 wRC+, great. That’s a big improvement over what he did after coming off the injured list last season (86 wRC+). We’ll see where this goes. I’m gonna need more than one homer against a dude coming off Tommy John surgery and another on a 3-0 swing against a bubble reliever to get excited.

“My body feels really good right now. I feel strong at the plate,” Donaldson told Bryan Hoch after Tuesday’s game. “I’m making my mechanics look similar to what I’m trying to accomplish. I’m seeing it well, where I can go into the box now at this point of Spring Training and trust my eyes, just letting my body move how I’ve been preparing it to.”

Still no shortstop announcement

Opening Day is six days away and the Yankees still have not announced their starting shortstop. Aaron Boone said they held their “pound the table” meeting earlier this week, when everyone with input stated their cases, though no decision has been made. Or a decision has been made and the Yankees aren’t telling us yet. Either way, we’re still in the dark.

“A lot of people spoke up,” Boone told Randy Miller about the meeting. “We had people in player development. Obviously the Major League coaching staff, support staff, front office. So it’s good to hear different voices from different perspectives on things they’re seeing, and kind of lay your cards on the table a little bit. It was a good first step in helping us make the decision.”

Peraza and Volpe have each made 10 starts at short this spring, but remember, it was all Kiner-Falefa and Peraza early in camp. They alternated games at short the first week or so, and Volpe has since caught up to them. He’s started a lot of games at leadoff too. If nothing else, the Yankees are giving the kid a real look. Volpe’s playing a lot and getting a lot of at-bats.

Volpe (.279/.404/.535) has outhit Peraza (.171/.293/.246) this spring, and there’s not enough time left in camp for Peraza to close the gap. The Yankees don’t make major roster decisions based on Spring Training stats, but when you call it an “open competition” and one guy has been that much better than the other, you’ll be asked five ways from Sunday to explain the decision if you give the job to the guy who had the worse spring. Props to Volpe for making this difficult.

The next post here is Tuesday, the day of the final exhibition game, so we should know who the shortstop will be next time we meet. Volpe leads Peraza in our poll, but I’m sticking with what I said at the start of camp: I think it’ll be Peraza. He’s a good prospect himself and Volpe’s lack of Triple-A time is a valid reason to send him down. The final weekend of Spring Training is upon us. We’re getting an answer soon one way or the other.

“We’ll make a decision when we have to in the very end,” Brian Cashman told Greg Joyce earlier this week. “We still have some time on the clock, but we’ve had a good camp. A lot of good things to see. But we have time on the clock to make the final call.”

Higashioka rejoins Yankees

The World Baseball Classic concluded Tuesday and Kyle Higashioka is back in camp with the Yankees. He (and Domingo Germán) played in a minor league game Thursday, according to Conor Foley. Higashioka caught two innings in the WBC (the ninth inning in two blowouts) and did not get an at-bat. Thursday was his first time hitting in a game since March 5th.

“I learned so much there from all the players and coaches,” Higashioka told Gary Phillips about the WBC. “I definitely think that I’m coming back better even though, you know, I lost those two weeks of playing time. But I feel like what I gained in terms of just experience and learning from all those guys probably overrides that lack of playing time.”

Between Higashioka being at the WBC and Jose Trevino dealing with a wrist injury, those two have combined for only 29 plate appearances and 66 defensive innings this spring (including Higashioka’s time at the WBC). Non-roster catcher Carlos Narvaez has 28 plate appearances and 65 defensive innings on his own. Higashioka and Trevino are behind the 8-ball a bit.

Higashioka made some adjustments at the plate late last year and had a huge September, and he didn’t get to build on it this spring. Who knows whether those adjustments helped anyway? Hopefully Higashioka and Trevino can get up to speed soon. They know most of the pitching staff already, which is more than half the battle. Been a weird spring for the guys behind the plate.

Latest roster moves

The Yankees did not make any roster cuts this week. They still have 36 healthy players in camp and that’s about how many they’ll bring to Nationals Park for Tuesday’s exhibition game. Figure they’ll pull the regulars in the late innings, use spare arms to finish the game, that kinda thing. The MLB players will then head to New York and the rest will go to Scranton.

Here’s the current Spring Training roster for posterity. Players who are crossed out have already been sent to minor league camp, and an asterisk means the player is out of options and must go through waivers to be sent to Triple-A.

Abreu, Cordero, Florial, and Krook are placeholders, though I think Abreu’s a lock to make the Opening Day roster. He’s had a good spring (8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K) and the Yankees love his arm. The other three guys? I dunno. Those exact three players wouldn’t surprise and three completely different guys wouldn’t surprise me either.

Opt outs dates are coming. The Yankees do not have any Article XX(B) free agents on minor league contracts, meaning players with at least six years of service time. Those guys automatically get an opt out five days before Opening Day and that’s Saturday. It’s likely some of the guys they have on minor league deals have opt outs though, so those decisions are approaching, and they could factor into the Opening Day roster construction.

Also, righty Wilking Rodriguez, who the Cardinals took from the Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft, has a shoulder issue and will begin the season on the injured list, according to Derrick Goold. The Yankees aren’t getting him back (at least not yet). Players must spend at least 90 days on the active roster to satisfy the Rule 5 Draft roster requirements. Rodriguez is 33. He’s not a kid. I don’t think St. Louis is manipulating his roster status to avoid sending him back to the Yankees. He’s legit hurt.

The Opening Day roster doesn’t have to be made office with the league until the morning of Opening Day (I believe it’s 10am ET but don’t hold me to that). We’ll know the roster before that though. Based on previous years, we should have an idea who the 26 guys will be before the Yankees head to Washington. Shortstop is the big mystery. Filling out the bullpen is pretty important too.

Upcoming games

Grapefruit League record check: 10-15-2 with a -3 run differential. Here’s what the Yankees have coming up. This is the rest of the Spring Training schedule:

• Friday vs. Twins (1pm ET): YES Network (split squad)
• Friday at Orioles (6pm ET): no broadcast (split squad)
• Saturday at Phillies (1pm ET): Phillies broadcast and MLB Network in-market
• Sunday vs. Blue Jays (1pm ET): YES Network and Blue Jays broadcast
• Monday vs. Rays (1pm ET): YES Network and MLB Network in-market
• Tuesday at Nationals (12 pm ET): Nationals broadcast and MLB Network in-market (at Nationals Park)

Friday night’s split squad game will be the last Yankees game we won’t be able to watch this year. Six exhibition games in the next five days, then an off-day, then it’s Gerrit Cole vs. Logan Webb on Opening Day in the Bronx. I am ready for Spring Training to be over. I was ready for it to be over three weeks ago, but now I’m really ready for it to be over.

Miscellany

Luis Severino gave up a leadoff homer Tuesday but had his best start of the spring overall (4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 HR), and he threw 31 sliders among his 74 pitches, or 42%. That’s his highest rate of sliders in a game since 2018. He was clearly working on the pitch – at one point he threw 13 sliders in a span of 22 pitches – after saying it was giving him trouble earlier this spring. He stopped calling pitches with the pitcher PitchCom too (“I suck at that,” he told Joyce). The nine strikeouts are nice and hopefully a sign Severino is getting on track. He has one more spring start remaining … Kiner-Falefa has started working out behind the plate. It was his idea too. “If I’m gonna do this, I want to be the best utility player I can be. I don’t want to do it halfway,” he told Dan Martin. Kiner-Falefa caught pitches from a pitching machine this week and it was his first time doing any sorta catching since 2019. I don’t know whether he’ll get into a game at catcher this spring simply because there aren’t many games left. The Yankees seem to view Kiner-Falefa as an emergency third catcher, not a viable backup. Given his role though, yeah, absolutely, work him out at catcher. The more positions he can cover, the more valuable he is to the Yankees. It will be funny/sad when Kiner-Falefa winds up catching more games for the Yankees than Ben Rortvedt … Non-roster righty James Norwood has had a sneaky good spring (8.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 12 K) and he got stretched out to two innings and 41 pitches last time out. Could he be in the mix for the long man/last guy in the bullpen spot with all the injuries? Hmmm. Norwood grew up on the Upper East Side and went to All Hallows High School two blocks away from Yankee Stadium. Having a local guy on the roster would be cool, even if he’s only a short-term stopgap.

2. Injury updates. Opening Day is less than a week away and hopefully the Yankees don’t lose anyone else to injury between now and then. They’ve had enough guys get hurt this spring. On that note, here are the latest injury updates.

Rodón throws bullpen session

According to Gary Phillips, Carlos Rodón threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Thursday (all fastballs), his first since being shut down with what the Yankees called a mild forearm strain earlier this month. Rodón began playing catch a week ago and he’ll start throwing breaking balls when he throws in the bullpen again in a few days.

“Overall, it feels like he’s in a strong spot now, and whatever he had going in his forearm is resolving, which is good to see,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Greg Joyce. “Just knowing that it’s something he kind of felt at the end of (last) year, he was aware of it early. Coming out of the Atlanta game (on March 5th), just felt like he was probably a little bit overheated on some of the sliders. So it was, okay, now let’s back up and make sure we get this knocked out so it’s not just lingering into the start of the season.”

Uh, Rodón felt it at the end of last year? That’s new information. Rodón said he pitched through a similar forearm issue last May, but he said nothing about the end of last season. Dealing with an injury late last year and then having the same injury pop back up in your first Spring Training start seems bad! Maybe Blake just misspoke. I dunno. I hope so.

Anyway, Blake says Rodón will throw 2-4 bullpens and “a couple” live batting practice sessions, and if all goes well, he’ll then go out on a minor league rehab assignment. Sounds like Rodón is still 4-6 weeks away, which jibes with the original timetable. Late April or early May. Just get healthy and don’t rush it. I’d rather Rodón miss a few starts now than a lot of starts later.

Kahnle receives cortisone shot

Tommy Kahnle received a cortisone shot in his troublesome biceps Tuesday, reports Joyce. The Yankees hope he’ll be able to start building up after a 2-3 day shutdown period. Kahnle tried to play catch a few times earlier this month, but he didn’t feel right, and had to keep backing off. He had the biceps checked out again this week and that’s when he got the injection.

“I’m sick of rehabbing. Pretty sick of rehabbing,” Kahnle told Max Goodman earlier this week. “... To be honest, I have no idea (when I’ll be game ready). I’m just gonna take it step by step.”

Now 33, Kahnle has appeared in only 17 games the last three years because of Tommy John surgery and a subsequent forearm issue. He said he had a similar biceps issue in 2018 and tried to pitch through it, which went terribly and landed him in Triple-A. Reliever with a history of arm problems has another arm problem. News at 11.

Kahnle’s injury is an opportunity for someone. Albert Abreu, Jimmy Cordero, Greg Weissert, whoever. One of them will get Kahnle’s Opening Day roster spot after being on the outside of the bullpen looking in when camp opened. Hopefully that reliever capitalizes and forces a hard decision whenever Kahnle returns. Get well soon, Tommy Tightpants.

Rortvedt resumes throwing

Ben Rortvedt started playing catch earlier this week and he might start swinging a bat and catching next week, he told Phillips. Rortvedt had surgery last month to treat an aneurysm near his shoulder that created circulation problems in his fingers. Had he waited longer to speak up about the numbness and get it checked out, he might have needed an amputation.

“It’s disappointing but it’s also something that I’m glad that we got out of the way early,” Rortvedt told Phillips. “I’m glad that it’s something that we found because that could have ended up being an actual real problem down the road health-wise. It wasn’t going to fix itself at any point.”

Even if he starts hitting and catching next week, Rortvedt is probably still a month away from being a full ad healthy player. He didn’t play at all in Spring Training and needs at-bats and innings behind the plate to prepare for the season. Figure Rortvedt will be ready to join Triple-A Scranton sometime in mid-to-late April. Glad he’s healthy though. Aneurysms are serious stuff.

In other catcher news, Jose Trevino (wrist) returned to the lineup earlier this week and has since appeared in two Grapefruit League games. Aaron Boone did not have an update on Josh Breaux (elbow) or Austin Wells (rib) the other day, according to Phillips. This is the third week of what Wells (not the Yankees) said he expects to be a 6-8 week recovery.

Miscellany

Harrison Bader (oblique) told Phillips there has been “absolutely no setbacks, no pain.” Sounds suspiciously like something someone who's had setbacks and pain would say. For real though, Bader is still in his shutdown period and he hopes to resume baseball activities soon, though he did not specify a timetable. At least the oblique is getting better … Luis Gil (elbow), my No. 11 prospect, has graduated to throwing bullpen sessions, according to Randy Miller. The next step is facing hitters in live batting practice, though that’s not imminent. Still more bullpen work ahead. Gil had Tommy John surgery last May 24th and is likely to miss the entire season, but at last his rehab is going well. Gil has a fourth minor league option for 2024 … Lou Trivino (elbow) started throwing Monday, according to Miller. He’s been shut down with a ligament sprain and will be out until May. Trivino still has a ways to go with his build up, though it sounds like his injury is as minor as ligament sprains can be. Fingers crossed it’s resolved and he has no hiccups on the way back … And finally, Scott Effross (elbow) started a throwing program not too long ago and is currently playing catch at 60 feet. “I’m just trying to look day-to-day,” he told Phillips. Effross had his Tommy John surgery in October, so he’ll miss the entire season. At least he’s on track with his rehab and hasn’t had a setback yet. See you next spring, Scott.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Friday Night Baseball returns to Apple TV+ this year and now you have to pay for it. Last year the games were free. You just needed to sign up for an Apple ID. Now you have to subscribe to the $7 a month service. The schedule was announced through June and they picked up two Yankees games:

• April 21st vs. Blue Jays
• May 26th vs. Padres

I pay for enough streaming services already and I’m not signing up for another one, so I guess I’m going to miss those games. Same with Peacock. MLB is doing the Sunday morning thing with Peacock again and they have the Yankees and Reds on May 21st. I already pay for YES and MLB.tv and they keep peeling games away from those subscriptions and putting them on other services. No mas. I’m at my limit … MLB made a few tweaks to the pitch clock earlier this week and Anthony Castrovince has the breakdown. The core rules – 15 seconds with the bases empty, 20 seconds with men on base, batter has to be alert to the pitcher at eight seconds, etc. – are the same. They just made some common sense adjustments. Pitchers will be given a little more time to get back to the mound after being involved in a defensive play (covering first base, backing up home plate, etc.), catchers will get more time to put their gear on after making the last out of the previous half-inning or running the bases, stuff like that. Also, MLB is gonna crack down on ball boys and ball girls who don’t do their jobs quick enough. When was the last time a game was delayed because a ball boy took too long to retrieve a bat or foul ball? Don’t put this on them. Get on the players who have abused the sport’s lack of a clock … And finally, J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) wrapped up his research into the one-knee catching stance and found it does not hurt blocking ability. In fact, one-knee stance guys have rated as (slightly) better blockers than catchers with conventional stances. The one-knee stance helps with framing, particularly pitches down in the zone, but it was always assumed the tradeoff is inferior blocking. That’s not the case. The numbers say the one-knee guys are every bit as good at blocking as conventional catchers. I’m not sure Cooper’s research will get enough attention – can’t you see Michael Kay and John Flaherty authoritatively stating it’s more difficult to block with the one-knee stance when a ball inevitably gets by Jose Trevino at some point this year? – but he’s done it, and it’s good stuff.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Adam asks: Are the players and coaches calling out the front office? This SS decision seems different. The way the players and coaches have been talking about Volpe, and whether or not he's going to crack the opening day roster is very different from anything I can remember in recent history. You would NEVER hear players or coaches commenting on roster construction the way Judge and Cole have in the past. Even Boone's comments on Volpe seem a little less 'front officey'. Kay is claiming that Boone is one of the people "pounding the table" for Volpe. Are the players and coaches rebelling a bit against the front office? For the last few years, the front office has clearly been calling all of the shots, and scripting game plans to a pretty extreme extent. That, coupled with service time manipulation... Am I reading into this too much?

It does feel different, doesn’t it? Aaron Judge was asked about Anthony Volpe two weeks ago and told Bryan Hoch “if you’re the best player, it shouldn’t matter your age, you should be up helping the New York Yankees.” Gerrit Cole wasn’t quite as pointed with his comments, but he went to bat for the kids too. I don’t remember the last time a veteran player did that around here.

Also, Judge reportedly told Hal Steinbrenner he wanted the Yankees to make upgrades when the two were talking contract over the winter. Maybe this happens more than we know, but geez, the franchise player going to ownership and saying “we need to get better” seems notable! Ditto that franchise player saying he wants the best players on the roster, regardless of age.

I’m not sure “rebelling against the front office” is the best way to put it, but this is out of character for the Yankees, and I think there’s something to it. I’m sure there’s mounting frustration within the clubhouse over the season ending the same way year after year, and maybe the players decided to be more vocal about wanting the best possible team on the field? Judge and Cole are exactly the guys to deliver that message, right?

Normally I would say Adam is reading too much into this but I don’t think so in this case. Judge went to Hal and said we need to get better. Judge then said he wants the best players on the roster no matter their age. The team’s best player has made it loud and clear he didn’t think the Yankees were good enough last year, and he wants them to be better. Whether that matters to the front office, I don’t know, but this hasn’t been the usual “we like the team we have” spring.

Isaac asks: Brett Baty. The Mets need a relief ace. The Yankees need a third baseman and lefty bat. Let's assume the Wilpon trade embargo has been lifted. What would a hypothetical trade centered on one of King/Loaisiga/Holmes look like?

The package would have to start with Mike King, I think. He is coming off a major injury, but he looks healthy this spring and he has one more year of control than Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loáisiga. He’s every bit as dominant on a per-inning basis too, maybe moreso, plus he can go 2-3 innings at a time. Here’s what the Trade Values site says:

A prospect in the Spencer Jones, Everson Pereira, and Austin Wells range closes the gap, and I think the Yankees should do that? Hypothetically, of course. Baty would potentially solve a lot of problems for the Yankees. They need a lefty bat with power and a long-term third baseman, and Baty is a lefty bat with power who plays third base, and he’s only 23.

Giving up King would really hurt the bullpen, though last year’s elbow fracture is a reminder even the very best pitchers are fragile. Surrendering a prospect to finish the deal is the cost of doing business. I’d rather not trade, say, Pereira, but to get a young lefty hitting third baseman who fills a long-term need? I’m not sure how you say no to that.

Obviously a Baty-Yankees trade isn’t happening. I don’t think a Baty trade is happening, period. The Mets missed out on Carlos Correa and Manny Machado reupped with the Padres, so there’s no high-end third baseman hitting the market anytime soon. I imagine Baty will take over as their starting third baseman (or at least platoon with Eduardo Escobar) sometime this year. He would be a really great pickup for the Yankees though. Baty checks a lot of boxes for them.

Sandeep asks: Frankie Montas. Okay, so he knew he was hurt when he was traded and I accept that is not unusual. However, he also signed a new one year deal (and if I can go by the media reports the surgery was announced a suspicious to me 31 days later) over the offseason also knowing he was hurt. Is there nothing that the Yankees can do with the information that he signed it knowing he was already hurt? Or is it a straight caveat emptor situation?

Nothing they can do. This wasn’t a new player they signed as a free agent. Montas was already in the organization and the Yankees had already reviewed his medicals and were fully aware of his shoulder trouble. It was reported Montas was dealing with a shoulder issue and behind in his offseason program right around the same time he signed his 2023 contract. The Yankees didn’t know Montas would need surgery at the time, but they knew his shoulder was acting up, and surgery is a risk that comes with the territory. Nothing they can do. They knew Montas wasn’t healthy, gambled anyway, and lost. Both with the trade and his 2023 contract.

Chris asks: Could you give a short profile on some of the Japanese talent that could be heading to the States in the next few years? It’s clear they are loaded with young talent, and I’m curious what the expectations and ETA are of them.

There are three premium Japanese players expected to make the jump to the MLB within the next few years, and they were all prominently featured in the World Baseball Classic. Let’s go through them one by one in order of approximate ETA.

RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ETA: 2024)

Yamamoto, 24, threw 3.1 innings in Japan’s win over Mexico on Monday (video). He has won the last two Pacific League MVPs and Sawamura Awards (Japan’s Cy Young), and there is a “strong belief” he will be posted after this season. Yamamoto turns 25 in August and will no longer be subject to the international bonus pool this winter, so he can sign a contract of any size. Here is FanGraphs’ scouting report:

Yamamoto retained the little velo bump he first showed in 2021 and still sits 93-95 mph, reaching back for some 6s and 7s during starts and peaking at 99 during 2022. That's happened while Yamamoto has retained his terrific command. He's a 70 on-mound athlete who attacks hitters and locates his secondary stuff almost at will. This is especially helpful for the viability of Yamamoto's cutter; his rainbow curveball and low-90s splitter (his best pitch and most-deployed secondary) have plus movement and don't need the help. Yamamoto is also super advanced, and can alter the shape of his fastball to make it cut, sink, or ride … He'd immediately slot into the middle of a contending rotation with no. 2 starter upside and therefore comfortably fits among the top 30 or so prospects in MLB.

Masahiro Tanaka’s seven-year, $155M contract with the Yankees is by far the largest contract ever given to a posted player. Yamamoto has a chance to match or exceed that given his age, production, pedigree, and contract inflation. I’m not sure the Yankees have the appetite for a third $25M+ a year pitcher with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón both signed through 2028 at big money.

3B Munetaka Murakami (ETA: 2026)

Murakami had a rough WBC overall (6-for-26 with 13 strikeouts) but he showed up in the biggest moments. He had the walk-off double Monday and a game-tying homer Tuesday (video). Think that swing will play at Yankee Stadium? I’m pretty sure it’ll play anywhere. That was a 115.1 mph dinger. Only 26 MLB players hit a ball that hard in 2022. Here’s FanGraphs on Murakami:

Murakami has power from pole to pole, turning on mistakes that he sends into pull-side orbit while also spraying pitches on the outer half into the left field bleachers. There is a combination of strength, athletic explosion, and flashes of lower half flexibility here that few MLB hitters wield, and Murakami's pop stands out even when you're comparing him to MLB's most fearsome power hitters. He has a terrific ability to recognize breaking balls and offspeed stuff, and will often keep his weight back to hit secondary pitches the opposite way and uses his natural strength to turn defensive swings into doubles. He bears some stylistic similarities to Freddie Freeman: a low-ball swing that is somehow pretty short even though it has an uppercut path. This leaves Murakami vulnerable to fastballs at the top of the zone, and at times he looks like a hit-over-power guy. It's where he does a lot of his swinging and missing, an issue that may be exploited by MLB fastballs … Defensively, Murakami has 30-grade feet and range, and while last year we said he would merit development at third were he a domestic draft prospect, it's time to cut bait on that evaluation. He has stiffened enough to be a hard "no" at third base, and his defensive projection is now abstract, either in left field or 1B/DH. There's still so much power here that were Murakami a minor league prospect, he'd easily be one of the top five on an overall list despite some of his issues. He's a potential MLB star in the event he comes over

Murakami recently signed a three-year contract that stipulates his team, the Yakult Swallows, post him for MLB teams after the 2025 season. At that point Murakami will be (yup) 25 and no longer subject to the international bonus pool. That’s the key age for these guys now. They wait until they’re 25 to be posted so they can sign a contract of any size.

The Yankees badly need a left-handed power threat right now. Key words: right now. Who in the world knows what they’ll need in 2026? It doesn’t sound like Murakami is long for third base, and come 2026, maybe Austin Wells is entrenched at first base with a Murakami-like bat. That would be cool. 2026 is the last year of DJ LeMahieu’s contract and the second-to-last year of Giancarlo Stanton’s contract. Perhaps the Yankees will splurge for Murakami then and live with an inflated payroll for a year (after resetting their luxury tax rate in 2025?).

RHP Roki Sasaki (ETA: 2027)

Sasaki is a Very Big Deal. At one point last season he retired 52 consecutive batters with 33 strikeouts, including a 19-strikeout perfect game. He threw four innings Monday and pumped 100 mph fastballs with ease (video). Sasaki looked like peak Jacob deGrom with maybe a little more giddy up on his fastball. Here’s FanGraphs one more time:

Sasaki mostly sat 93-98 with his fastball in 2021, but was back in the 97-99 range and up to 102 in '22. The use of his plus-plus upper-80s splitter (which often has slider shape to his glove side) increased as part of Sasaki's four-pitch mix. Sasaki's slider is also very hard, typically 86-88, but he doesn't finish it as consistently as his splitter. If he ever learns to locate the slider consistently, Sasaki could be a dominant big league starter. There are scouts and executives who worry about his health, since Sasaki was asked to pitch a ton as an amateur, his frame is wispy and wiry, and his delivery is quite violent. But he has monster stuff and is already one of NPB's best pitchers at age 21. Were he a college prospect in the U.S., he'd be in the conversation for the 2023 draft's top pick.

Sasaki will play this entire season at age 21 and he won’t turn 25 until Nov. 2026, so unless he comes over while being subject to the international bonus pools, Sasaki is at least four years away from MLB. Four years is an eternity, especially for a pitcher. I will sit here and dream about Sasaki in pinstripes and keep my fingers crossed that he’s still this come 2027.

And come 2027, LeMahieu’s contract will be off the books, Stanton will have just one more year to go, and Cole and Rodón will have two years remaining. With Cole and Rodón likely aging out as top-end starters by then, it would be a good time for the Yankees to splurge for the next front of the rotation guy. Long way to go between now and then though. There will be other Japanese players along the way but Yamamoto, Murakami, and Sasaki are the next potential stars slated to make the jump to MLB.

Adam asks: Am I crazy or are the Red Sox going to be better than everyone thinks? I think Yoshida is going to be a problem and their bullpen is better. SP will be a problem however. What do you think?

You’re not crazy. The Red Sox have a very high variance roster and if enough things go their way, they can be a postseason team. And if enough things don’t go their way, they could finish in last place for the third time in four years. This is what the Red Sox do, right? They build these rosters with enormous error bars and some years it works, and some years it doesn’t.

It’s probably not a great sign for them that Brayan Bello and James Paxton already got hurt this spring, and Garrett Whitlock is coming along slowly from offseason hip surgery. Their Opening Day rotation is tentatively scheduled to include Tanner Houck, who moved to the bullpen last year because he struggled as a starter, and up-and-down guy Kutter Crawford. (Chad Jennings notes Boston only has 13 healthy pitchers on the 40-man roster right now.)

No one really knows what to expect from Masataka Yoshida. He was great in the World Baseball Classic, but that was seven games spread across 13 days and two continents. I don’t think that told us much. No Xander Bogaerts, no Trevor Story, and a lot of bullpen arms who flunked auditions last season. I think the Red Sox are likely to be a bad to middling team, something like 20th overall in the final standings, but there’s enough talent to be a lot better than that.

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