Poll: The Starting Shortstop

Two good shortstop prospects > one good shortstop prospect. (Getty)

Opening Day is eight days away and we still don’t know who the Yankees will have at shortstop against the Giants and their team of Not Aaron Judges. Well, we know who it won’t be: Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Kiner-Falefa has not played short since March 8th and has moved all around the field the last two weeks. That’s a strong indication he’s out of the shortstop race.

“When do rosters have to be submitted?” Aaron Boone jokingly told Mark Sanchez this past weekend when asked when he’ll name a starting shortstop. (Rosters have to be submitted a few hours before first pitch on Opening Day.)

In Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza, my No. 1 and No. 3 prospects, the Yankees have two of the most highly regarded shortstop prospects in the game. To me, this feels like a “no wrong answer” situation. The Yankees will put an exciting young player at a premium position either way, and choosing between Peraza and Volpe boils down to nitpicking.

With that in mind, let’s go ahead and nitpick. I’m going to make cases for Peraza and Volpe, then we’ll vote on who we think should be the starting shortstop.

The case for Peraza

There is a natural order to this game – Single-A, then Double-A, then Triple-A, then MLB – and Peraza has reached the point where he needs to play in the big leagues to continue his development and grow as a player. He played just about a full season in Triple-A last year and got his feet wet in the show late in the season, and even started a postseason game.

"Once you go to the big leagues and you experience that level of baseball, you definitely want to be playing at that level," Peraza told Paul Casella early in camp. "That's my goal. My goal is to try to win this competition and establish myself as a shortstop in the big leagues."

Peraza, 22, slashed .250/.329/.448 (106 wRC+) with 19 home runs and 33 steals in 38 attempts in 99 Triple-A games in 2022. Similar to Volpe in Double-A, Peraza started slowly, then picked it up a few weeks into the season: .291/.365/.511 (131 wRC+) with 14 homers and 22 steals in 27 attempts in 61 games after June 1st. His ball-tracking data was strong too.

Peraza’s offensive game is built on pull power and speed, and in his limited big league time, he slashed .306/.404/.429 (146 wRC+) with an excellent 8.1% swinging strike rate. It’s only 57 plate appearances, so it ain’t much, but it’s 57 more plate appearances than Volpe has at the MLB level. Those 57 plate appearances give us at least some reason to think Peraza is MLB ready.

Really though, Peraza’s calling card is his defense. His glove is big league ready and he’s the best defensive shortstop the Yankees have had maybe since Brendan Ryan. Peraza has range, good hands, a strong arm, good instincts, everything you could want from a shortstop. The case for Peraza is inherently a case against Volpe and Peraza is simply the better defender.

“Very natural shortstop actions. He’s athletic. He moves well for a guy that’s got good size (6-foot-0 and 200 lbs.). Good throwing arm. He looks the part picking up a ground ball,” Boone told Randy Miller about Peraza’s defense. “So all those things, I think he’s got a chance to have a long career in this game as a frontline shortstop, no question.”

There is a big picture component as well. Peraza in the Bronx means Volpe spends more time in Triple-A, which may be best for his development. Going with Peraza now could lead to the Yankees getting the best versions of Peraza and Volpe down the line. The Yankees are trying to win the 2023 World Series, so the here and now is important, but the future can't be disregarded either.

The case for Peraza boils down to better defense and more MLB-readiness, at least based on how much more time he’s spent in Triple-A than Volpe. With extreme shifts going away and the Yankees emphasizing power sinkers, infield defense is crucial, and Peraza provides it. He also has an understanding of the big league game because he’s played it. Peraza has already experienced that initial shock to the system and is further ahead on the learning curve.

The case against Peraza: Peraza is a candidate to post a sub-.300 OBP this season. He’s an aggressive hitter – Peraza put the first pitch in play in 15 of his 57 plate appearances last year, or 26% (the MLB average is 11%) – and the Astros exploited his aggressiveness in the postseason by feeding him pitches at the very bottom of the zone and below.

That’s the blueprint and Peraza will see a steady diet of pitches down (particularly breaking balls) until he shows he can hit them or lay off. It’s on Peraza to make that adjustment and yeah, that’s part of development, but he is an aggressive hitter. Swinging is in his DNA. It’s fair to wonder how much Peraza will contribute at the plate until that adjustment is made (if he makes it).

“He can really run. He’s got pop in his bat. He hits the ball with authority,” Boone told Miller. “It’s just a matter of, what level does he keep graduating to and developing from really controlling the strike zone like the really good big leaguers do?”

The case for Volpe

Gosh, Volpe is impressive, isn’t he? He’s a player you need to see to fully appreciate because his instincts and baseball IQ are incredible, and they elevate his tools. Volpe has stood out every time he’s taken the field this spring (he doubled, unnerved the pitcher and catcher into a balk, then scored on a ground ball Tuesday) and he looks like a big leaguer. He's always in control and makes the game look easy.

“It’s great. He’s just such a good all-around player,” Boone told Sanchez about Volpe’s spring. “You can tell he really loves just all the little things within the game.”

Volpe struggled initially in Double-A before finding his footing a few weeks into the season, and he hit .279/.369/.528 (142 wRC+) in the 71 games prior to his move up to Triple-A. Over the last two years Volpe has hit 70 doubles and 48 homers, stolen 83 bases in 99 attempts, and walked plenty (12.9%) without striking out excessively (19.7%). His at-bats tend to be high quality.

Again, the case for Volpe is inherently a case against Peraza, and Volpe is a more refined hitter with a more mature approach despite the lack of Triple-A time. Volpe is much more patient, he’s posted lower strikeout and swinging strike rates throughout his career, and he uses the entire field more than Peraza. Look at the heat maps of the pitches they’ve swung at this spring:

It’s only Spring Training and these are small sample sizes, but Volpe’s swing heat map is tighter than Peraza’s and confined to the strike zone. Peraza can be a bit of a hacker and chase outside the zone, which is something big league pitchers can exploit. Volpe’s approach and offensive game is more complete than Peraza’s.

While not Peraza’s equal defensively, Volpe is a legit shortstop whose defensive shortcomings are overstated. An average arm does not mean a bad arm, and while his thick lower half may point to a future at second base, it does not mean he has to move to second base now. Volpe is a good defensive shortstop more than a great defensive shortstop, but he’s still a shortstop.

Volpe won’t match Peraza in the field, so his case boils down to exceeding him at the plate, with the idea that Volpe’s approach and well-roundedness better translate to MLB right away. High-end prospects like Julio Rodríguez have skipped Triple-A entirely. The starting shortstops in last year’s World Series (Jeremy Peña and Bryson Stott) were rookies with a combined 49 games in Triple-A. The usual Single-A to Double-A to Triple-A to MLB development path doesn’t apply to everyone.

Those who rank prospects professionally rank Volpe above Peraza (by a good margin on top 100 lists) because he is believed to have greater upside, and a better chance to become a productive big leaguer. The case for Volpe is his all-around skills and special feel for the game will allow him to outperform Peraza in the aggregate, even if the defense is not at the same level.

The case against Volpe: I laid out the case against Volpe two weeks ago, so I’ll refer you back to that rather than lay it all out again here. The short version is Volpe doesn’t have much Triple-A time and he didn’t play well during his limited time there, and we shouldn’t completely ignore that. And it’s not like the alternative is some journeyman. It’s another really good prospect, so let that other really good prospect play while Volpe gets more seasoning in the minors.

* * *

Peraza and Volpe are both right-handed hitters and they’ll both steal bases, and they’ll both bring (needed) youth and energy to the lineup. None of that stuff works as a tiebreaker. It’s not like one offers a lefty bat or will contribute more on the bases. For reference, here are the 2023 ZiPS projections:

• Peraza ZIPS: .243/.300/.385 (97 wRC+) and +2.5 WAR
• Volpe ZiPS: .234/.318/.407 (108 wRC+) and +3.5 WAR

“I think they’re both great. I think they both have a great approach. They work hard,” Gerrit Cole told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “Peraza came up last year and I got to know him a little bit. Same with Oswaldo (Cabrera). They were so pro, they were able to assimilate. Volpe has a high level of deliberate preparation as well, which is why everybody’s so high on him and I think why he impacts everyone he plays around.”

This is where I note being the shortstop on Opening Day does not mean you get to be the shortstop all season. The Opening Day shortstop gets the first crack at the job, sure, but he’ll have to perform well to keep it because the other guy will be waiting in the wings. The shortstop competition will extend into the regular season and Peraza and Volpe will push each other. That’s a good thing.

Time for the poll. Who do you want to be the shortstop to begin the regular season? Not who do you think the Yankees will name the shortstop, who do you want to be the shortstop?