March 21st, 2023: Cortes, Kiner-Falefa, Mauricio, LeMahieu, Profar, Mariners, Romine

Man I love the World Baseball Classic. It’s so much fun. I would be willing to sacrifice a prominent Met and Jose Altuve every spring to get the WBC every year. Anyway, only one more week of Spring Training. Opening Day is nine days away. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Grapefruit League observations. Eight more games in Florida, one game in Washington DC, then it’s meaningful baseball in the Bronx. Opening Day is a week from Thursday. I’m ready. Grapefruit League games are for the birds. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

Nestor’s Grapefruit League debut

The results were not good (3.1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR) but Nestor Cortes is healthy and he made his Grapefruit League debut Saturday, and that’s great news. He got up to 52 pitches and the numbers on his stuff were good too. Velocity and everything was in line with last season. All in all, Cortes looked like last year’s Nestor, albeit rusty.

“With my first outing, as long as I get out of there healthy and feeling good about myself, that was the most important thing for me,” Cortes told Bryan Hoch.

The Vlad Guerrero Jr. (slider) and Whit Merrifield (cutter) home runs came on junk pitches that hung out over the plate. The middle-middle mistakes and three walks tell you Nestor’s command isn’t there yet. This is a pitcher who had a 6.2% walk rate and a 47.3% edge rate (seventh best in baseball) last year. Hopefully Cortes locks in his command before Opening Day.

On that note, the Yankees adjusted Nestor’s schedule. The original plan had Cortes making his spring debut Sunday. He instead pitched Saturday, and that means he’ll be able to make three Spring Training starts rather than two. Here is Nestor’s new schedule (this is me counting days, the Yankees haven’t made this official):

• Saturday, March 18th at Blue Jays (spring debut)
• Thursday, March 23rd at Cardinals (normal rest)
• Tuesday, March 28th at Nationals (normal rest) (final exhibition game)
• Monday, April 5th vs. Phillies (extra day of rest) (fifth game of regular season)

Aaron Boone said Cortes could start the fourth game of the season, though the Yankees typically give their starters an extra day of rest heading into their first regular season start. Either game is fine. Point is, moving Cortes up a day this past weekend gives him one more outing in a competitive game. That’s preferable to yet another simulated game against a bunch of his teammates.

Better results would have been nice, but on March 18th, who really cares. It seems the hamstring injury is no longer a concern and Cortes is finally pitching in actual games, and preparing for the regular season. Now he just needs to knock the rust off and build his pitch count up. He has another two spring starts to do that before Opening Day.

“All in all, I thought it was a pretty good day,” Boone told Hoch. “He finished up pretty well, and we got his workload to where we wanted. I think his stuff looks good."

IKF’s day in center

Aaron Judge has played three games in left field this spring and has not had a single playable ball hit his way. Isiah Kiner-Falefa played center for the first time Friday and the first two batters of the game hit the ball at him. Go figure. Kiner-Falefa needs the center field work more than Judge needs the left field work but damn man, can’t Judge get a chance out there? Stupid sport.

Anyway, Kiner-Falefa was tested with five routine fly balls Friday and he caught them all (video), though he looked unsure with his first step a few times. He also threw home on a single when he should have thrown to the cutoff man, which allowed the runner to go first to third. He also admitted he misread his positioning card at one point and wasn’t where he was supposed to be.

“I lined up on the wrong side. That was the one time I messed up my alignment. That can’t happen in the real game,” Kiner-Falefa told Mark Sanchez after the game. “... I feel like I got tested in every way today for the most part.”

Misreading the positioning card is a silly mistake and hopefully something that won’t happen again. Otherwise those iffy first steps and throwing to the wrong base can be chalked up to inexperience. Kiner-Falefa has 14 career innings in center and none since 2017. A learning curve is to be expected. That’s why you try these things in Spring Training.

All things considered, Kiner-Falefa had a good first day in center field. He caught everything he was supposed to catch and that’s really all you can ask given his (lack of) experience level. Similar to shortstop, you don't want Kiner-Falefa in center field every single day, but he can do it now and then as a utility guy. Anything more than that is pushing it.

Also, Kiner-Falefa has not played short since March 8th. He’s played other positions in his last six Grapefruit League games. Safe to say he’s out of the shortstop race. Kiner-Falefa would not be moving around so much this late in camp if the Yankees were planning to put him at short. He would be playing, you know, shortstop. A kid it is (unless the Yankees reverse course, pull a Braves, and decide the best young shortstop for the job is "neither").

“Since he’s got here, he just wants to win and win in pinstripes,” Boone told Hoch about moving Kiner-Falefa into a utility role. “It’s important to him. He’s worked really hard at his game. He’s a really good teammate. I think moving around some is something that will serve us well, and I think he’s cut out for it."

Mauricio impressing this spring

A pitcher generating buzz over in minor league camp: RHP Alex Mauricio. The Yankees took him in the 27th round in 2017 and he retired in Dec. 2019. Mauricio was out of baseball entirely from 2020-21, then he unretired last year and pitched to a 4.78 ERA (4.08 FIP) with 27.5% strikeouts and 12.6% walks in 37.2 relief innings with High-A Hudson Valley.

The numbers don’t stand out but Mauricio showed interesting enough stuff. His fastball jumped from 91-92 mph pre-retirement to 95-97 mph last year, and his cutter now sits around 90 mph. The cutter is his best pitch. It gets whiffs and weak contact, and Mauricio locates it better than his four-seamer. That’s unusual. Guys typically command the four-seamer better than the cutter.

Now 26, Mauricio appeared in two Grapefruit League games very early in camp and struck out all four batters he faced (video). Here are the super small sample spring numbers on his stuff, which I’m told are consistent with what he did with Hudson Valley last season:

• Four-seamer: 95.8 mph average and 96.8 mph max (2,510 rpm)
• Cutter: 88.5 mph average and 90.6 mph max (2,666 rpm)

It’s above average velocity and spin on both pitches. Only Yu Darvish and Emmanuel Clase had more spin on their cutters among big leaguers last year (min. 500 thrown), and Mauricio’s six inches of horizontal break on the cutter would have been near the top of the league too. Only a handful of big leaguers matched that number in 2022.

The stuff is good, particularly the cutter, and Mauricio is said to have opened eyes over in minor league camp the last few weeks. I heard similar things about Will Warren last spring and he was the breakout pitcher in the system last season. I’m not saying Mauricio can be the next Warren. I’m just noting minor league camp buzz can sometimes be meaningful.

Mauricio spent last year in High-A, plus the Yankees have more Triple-A caliber pitchers than roster spots, so I expect him to open this season with Double-A Somerset. A good few weeks could land him in Scranton. Maybe Mauricio can be a Ron Marinaccio type? A late blooming reliever with a standout pitch? Would be cool. Either way, he’s put himself on the radar entering 2023.

Latest roster moves

One small round of roster cuts over the weekend: 1B/OF Jake Bauers and OF Billy McKinney were sent to minor league camp. The Yankees are down to 36 healthy players in big league camp. Here’s the updated Spring Training roster (crossed out means the player has already been sent to minor league camp, asterisk means the player is out of options and must pass through waivers to go to Triple-A):

The Yankees have the exhibition game at Nationals Park next Tuesday and they will bring extra players on the trip to play out the last few innings. Those players will then head to Scranton. The Triple-A season begins next Friday, the day after the Yankees open their season, so they have to finalize the MLB roster and the Triple-A roster in the coming days. Double-A Somerset, High-A Hudson Valley, and Low-A Tampa start their seasons a week later.

I have Abreu, Cordero, Florial, and Krook on my MLB roster as placeholders. They are not locked into roster spots, and decision day is coming for Florial. He is 6-for-33 (.182) with 14 strikeouts this spring. I wonder if the Yankees will do what they did with Austin Romine in 2015 and designate Florial for assignment the day before Opening Day, then put him on waivers the day after Opening Day, after teams have set their rosters. They are less likely to make a waiver claim that day. Florial might clear anyway at this point. We’ll find out soon.

In the next nine days the Yankees must resolve the Florial situation, pick the arms to fill out the bullpen, and announce their starting shortstop. The shortstop announcement could come at any time. The Yankees could make it this afternoon or not until after the Nationals Park game, and neither would surprise me. I think Volpe will be on the DC trip either way, the way top prospects Miguel Andújar and Clint Frazier were on the SunTrust Park trip in 2017.

(Willie Calhoun told Gary Phillips he believes he has an opt out in his minor league contract, but he’s not sure when. If the opt out is sometime in Spring Training, that’s another roster decision that must be made fairly soon.)

Upcoming games

Grapefruit League record check: 9-14-1 with a -3 run differential. The Yankees have lost five straight games and 10 of their last 13 games. Doomed, season over, etc. etc. Here’s what the Yankees have coming up between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday (1pm ET) vs. Tigers: YES Network and MLB Network out-of-market
• Wednesday (1pm ET) at Nationals: no broadcast
• Thursday (1pm ET) at Cardinals: Cardinals broadcast

The Nationals and Cardinals train on the other side of Florida. It’s a four-hour bus ride one way. For those trips the Yankees (and every other team) typically send a large group and have them stay overnight rather than go back and forth the two days. Veterans like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton aren’t making that trip. Expect to see a lot of minor leaguers.

Miscellany

Rizzo is 6-for-24 (.250) this spring and last week Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) talked to him about extreme shifts going away. You will not be surprised to learn Rizzo and the Yankees believe it will help him. That had me wondering about the league-wide numbers this spring. These are entering Monday’s action:

• LHB BABIP in 2023 Spring Training: .329
• LHB BABIP in 2022 regular season: .283
• LHB BABIP in 2022 Spring Training: .314

BABIP is always higher in Spring Training than during the regular season. It is a little higher than usual this spring, including for left-handed batters, who saw the shift most often. Does that 15-point BABIP increase from last spring stick during the regular season? Would be nice. We’ll find out in a few weeks … DJ LeMahieu has four 100 mph exit velocities this spring. That’s out of 19 batted balls in Statcast parks. He had four 100 mph exit velocities among his final 44 batted balls last season. A good sign, that is. LeMahieu’s hitting the ball in a way he was unable to once the toe became a real hindrance last season … Carlos Rodón (forearm) played catch for the first time Friday and all went well. “I feel good. I’m definitely trending in the right direction,” he told Randy Miller. Still a ways to go with his build up, but progress is being made. All is not well with Tommy Kahnle (biceps), however. He’s attempted to play catch a few times and still doesn’t feel right. “Haven’t felt that good so I’m not sure what the next steps are,” he told Max Goodman. Might be a while until we see Tommy Tightpants … And finally, Spencer Jones, my No. 4 prospect, went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts in his first three Grapefruit League games as a minor league call up. He is 4-for-9 since, including 103 mph and 107 mph singles against two guys with big league time (Alex Faedo and Joey Wentz) on Saturday (video). Trey Sweeney, my No. 9 prospect, is 3-for-11 with a homer (video), three walks, and zero strikeouts in Grapefruit League action. Pretty much every prospect who’s gotten run in Grapefruit League games has played well.

2. Latest hot stove news. The hot stove season is technically over but I don’t know what else to call these free agent and trade nuggets, so I’m sticking with hot stove. You get the point. Here are the latest Yankees-adjacent hot stove nuggets.

Rockies sign Profar

Jurickson Profar’s free agency is finally over. The Rockies gave him a one-year contract worth $7.75M guaranteed over the weekend, according to Jon Heyman. He gets another $1M when he reaches 400 plate appearances. Profar declined a player option with the Padres and walked away from $7.5M to become a free agent, so he came out ahead, but just barely.

The Yankees had been connected to Profar in recent weeks, though it was more of a “waiting to see how far his price falls” thing than serious interest. Profar is better than what the Yankees currently have in left field (i.e. Aaron Hicks) and would have been an upgrade. He’s not a needle mover though. He's a league average-ish left fielder offensively with iffy defense. Meh.

Unless Hicks returns to 2017-20 form, or someone like Rafael Ortega (or eventually Jasson Domínguez?) really stakes a claim to that job, the Yankees figure to be in the market for a left fielder at the trade deadline. I expected that to be the case with Profar too. After sitting through him hitting .240/.320/.380 with -5 defense for four months, we’d want someone better.

The Yankees figure to be in the market for a left fielder at the trade deadline for the third straight trade deadline. Four prospects for Joey Gallo, three prospects for Andrew Benintendi. How many prospects for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Hunter Renfroe this summer? Maybe the Yankees should’ve just signed Profar and lived with the warts until someone better comes along. I am nonplussed.

(With Profar, FanGraphs estimates Colorado’s payroll at $170.4M in real dollars and $195.1M for luxury tax purposes. What in the world are they spending it on?)

Mariners lose Moore to injury

Another possible trade partner for Isiah Kiner-Falefa has emerged. Mariners utility guy Dylan Moore hurt his oblique last week and will be shut down at least month, the team said. He was being brought along slowly following offseason abdominal surgery and had not yet played in a Cactus League game. Moore will probably be out until May. Maybe longer.

“It could have been,” Moore told Ryan Divish when asked whether the abdominal surgery contributed to the oblique injury. “Maybe not directly. Maybe indirectly without having the time to get my core in shape where I can handle all the load because of the injury, and not being able to do as much core stuff in the offseason to get it ready.”

With Moore injured, Seattle doesn’t have an obvious backup shortstop. Sam Haggerty played short scarcely in the minors and never in the big leagues. Kolten Wong has one career inning at short, and their Triple-A shortstop is journeyman Mason McCoy. Maybe the Mariners would put Eugenio Suárez at short when J.P. Crawford needs a day? No good options with Moore hurt.

What the Mariners do have, at least on paper, is rotation depth. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Robbie Ray are locked in as the top four starters, leaving Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales as the No. 5 candidates. Top prospects Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller are knocking on the door, and Tommy Milone is their Ryan Weber (the disposable journeyman).

Flexen and Gonzales were regulars on the trade rumor circuit all winter. Gonzales has two years and $18.5M remaining on his contract, making Flexen at one year and $8M much more tradeable. Flexen had a solid 3.73 ERA in 137.1 innings in 2022, though the underlying numbers weren’t great: 16.1% strikeouts, 9.5% swinging strikes, 8.6% walks, 33.8% grounders, and 9.0% barrels.

Is there a Kiner-Falefa for Flexen trade to be made? One year of a $6M utility guy for one year of an $8M swingman? Both teams would deal from a position of depth to address a weakness. The Yankees would open a bench spot (Willie Calhoun in the Matt Carpenter role?) while still having Oswaldo Cabrera as a utility guy, and they’d get a depth arm to help cover for the Carlos Rodón and Frankie Montas (and Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trivino) injuries.

The Mariners should probably keep Flexen as rotation depth (he moved to the bullpen following the Castillo trade), you can never have enough of it, but if they believe in Hancock, Miller, et al that much, then yeah, trading him makes sense. Kiner-Falefa would give Seattle a true backup shortstop, and there’s room on the bench for him even after Moore returns because Moore plays a lot of outfield, and Tommy La Stella might be cooked. For what it’s worth, here’s what the Trade Values site says:

I see two potential hang ups in a Kiner-Falefa for Flexen trade. Well, three when you factor in how much the Yankees seem to love Kiner-Falefa. First, Flexen is a cutter/changeup pitcher with average-ish velocity. Not every pitcher needs the organizational stamp, but he lacks the power sinker and/or coach-up-able slider the Yankees typically target. He’s not their type, basically.

And second, the Yankees kinda need Kiner-Falefa? There’s a difference between infield depth and having a lot of infielders. I feel like the Yankees are the latter. Josh Donaldson is not giving us any reason to believe a bounce back season is coming (5-for-28 with eight strikeouts this spring), DJ LeMahieu is coming off a major injury, Cabrera will be needed in the outfield, and who knows with the kids? It ain’t hard to see Kiner-Falefa coming in handy sooner rather than later.

That isn’t to say Kiner-Falefa should be off-limits. I’m pretty confident in the kids and I think the Yankees are too, and if they can use Kiner-Falefa to improve another part of the roster, then do it. The question is whether the Yankees consider Flexen a worthwhile addition. He’s not really their type and they believe strongly in Jhony Brito and other youngsters as rotation depth (plus they expect Rodón back soon).

I don’t know if it’s Kiner-Falefa for Flexen or Kiner-Falefa for prospects or Kiner-Falefa for something else entirely, but there appears to be the potential for a trade with the Mariners. The Moore injury created a very specific need (shortstop-capable bench guy) and Kiner-Falefa can fill that very specific need. Perhaps the two sides can find common ground.

Reds release Romine

Over the weekend the Reds released old pal Austin Romine. I’m guessing he had a mid-March opt out in his minor league contract and used it to look for a better opportunity because Cincinnati is set with Tyler Stephenson and Curt Casali behind the plate. Now 34, Romine is 3-for-15 (.200) with seven strikeouts this spring.

You’re all smart, you know where I’m going with this. The Yankees have gotten hammered with injuries behind the plate this spring, and a Romine reunion (on a minor league contract, to be clear) could be worthwhile to replenish catching depth. A reminder of the current catching depth chart:

1. Jose Trevino (wrist sprain)
2. Kyle Higashioka
3. Ben Rortvedt (aneurysm)
4. Josh Breaux (elbow)
5. Nick Ciuffo
6. Rodolfo Durán
7. Austin Wells (broken rib)

Ciuffo is a lesser version of Rob Brantly and Durán had a .266 OBP in Double-A last season. Trevino swung a bat over the weekend and is expected to return to the lineup this week, so it seems his wrist injury is minor, but still. His injury scare is a reminder the Yankees are an injury away from carrying Ciuffo or Durán on the Opening Day roster.

It’s been a tough few years for Romine since leaving the Yankees. He’s hit .201/.227/.288 (38 wRC+) in 333 plate appearances with five teams the last three years, plus he missed close to four months with a wrist injury in 2021 and has spent time in Triple-A. The defensive numbers don’t like him either: -6 DRS, -4.8 DRP, -6.3 framing in 788.2 innings since leaving the Yankees, or roughly 88 games

Would I bring Romine up if he were not a former Yankee? No, likely not. He is a former Yankee though, so he’s familiar with the organization even though he hasn’t caught many pitchers on the staff. Nestor Cortes*, Domingo Germán, Tommy Kahnle, Mike King*, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Luis Severino are the only current Yankees who were teammates with Romine back in the day.

* That was the old version of Cortes, and King was on the roster for all of two weeks in 2019, Romine’s final season in pinstripes. Romine did catch King in his big league debut though.

I dunno, I’m just a little nervous about the catching situation and a familiar name came across the transactions page, so I figured I’d write about him. It’s been a while since we’ve gotten an update on Breaux, Rortvedt, or Wells. For all I know they could be nearing a return. Until we hear otherwise, I will assume not, and adding another able-bodied catcher would make me feel better.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The YES Network has a new addition: Todd Frazier. Did you know he’s from Toms River? And that he met Derek Jeter as a child? Frazier will do pre- and postgame studio work, according to Jack Curry. He won’t be in the booth. Not gonna lie, I pretty much never watch the pre- and postgame shows, so this doesn’t matter much to me. Frazier was good with the media as a player and he’s funny and self-deprecating. I’m sure he’ll do well in the studio … And finally, Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt talked to Derrick Goold about the Bally Sports situation and gave a good answer. “From a fan’s standpoint, I actually don’t see it getting worse. I see it getting better. From a team standpoint, it’s scary. From a fan’s standpoint, they should be like, ‘bring it on.’ Bring on a new model,” he said. DeWitt was referring to the end of blackouts as a positive for fans. The revenue uncertainty is the team’s problem, not our problem, and DeWitt didn’t pretend otherwise. A lot of times owners push the “if it’s good for the team, it’s good for fans, and if it’s bad for the team, it’s bad for fans” idea, and it ain’t that simple. The opposite is often true. Something that can be bad for the team (like raising payroll) can be great for fans. DeWitt admitted the death of regional sports networks is good for fans even though teams are heading into uncharted territory.

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