March 14th, 2023: Bader, Center Field, Volpe, Shortstop, Cortes, Rizzo

Jasson Domínguez update: 9-for-24 (.429) with four homers, three walks, and three strikeouts this spring. He took actual big leaguer Connor Brogdon deep Saturday (video). Entering play Monday, Domínguez was tied for the Spring Training home run lead with nine others, all of whom are at least one year older than him and eight of whom are at least three years older than him. Harrison Bader is hurt and El Marciano wants that center field job. Bader better get healthy soon so he doesn’t get Wally Pipp’d. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Bader to miss six weeks. We had to wait a little while to see Harrison Bader play last year and we’ll have to wait a little while to see him play this year. Bader will miss six weeks or so with a left oblique strain. That puts him on track to return toward the end of April. Obliques are very delicate though. Can’t rush the rehab work and risk a setback.

“Hopefully he can beat (the six-week timetable),” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce. “I think they’re a little surprised at what he’s able to do already and how he feels already. But obliques obviously are about as tricky as they come. We’ll kind of have a better idea a couple weeks from now how he’s doing, what he’s ready to start, and things like that.”

Bader told Marly Rivera he suffered the injury on his last swing Wednesday because he took an “awkward swing on a bad pitch.” Here’s the video. No obvious discomfort or anything. The Yankees will be without their starting center fielder to begin the regular season in addition to being without their No. 2 starter, No. 5 starter, and two veteran bullpen arms. Annoying.

"No, never (had an oblique injury), which is why it's strange to me," Bader told Rivera. "So again, the preparation aspect and everything I do going into every single day the night before, I prepare accordingly. So it's definitely a punch in the face, but it is what it is."

The Yankees have not said who will play center field during Bader’s absence and there’s no reason to commit to anything yet. Still got another two weeks of Spring Training to figure it out. I am comfortable saying it won’t be Jasson Domínguez though. He’s been awesome this spring, but he’s mostly played against minor leaguers late in games, and we’re talking about what amounts to a jump from High-A to MLB given how little he’s played in Double-A. It would be extremely aggressive. I’d rather not rush Domínguez and risk Jo Adelling him.

“We love where he’s at. Is he in that mix early on? That would be tough,” Boone said during an in-game YES interview Saturday (video). “... This is a 20-year-old kid who hasn’t played a ton of baseball and basically got up to Double-A for the playoffs last year and performed really well. So he needs to play and keep on developing. But the track that he’s on, especially what we saw last year and especially this spring, he could throw himself in the mix sooner rather than later.”

Aaron Judge played 78 games in center field last season and he did that because the Yankees no longer consider Aaron Hicks an everyday center fielder. On 36 occasions Judge started in center and Hicks started in left. The Yankees then acquired Bader in part because they don’t want Judge to play center full-time. They don’t want the big man running around that much.

That doesn’t mean the Yankees are against putting Judge in center to temporarily replace Bader. I don’t think it’s their preference, but I don’t think they’re against it either. The Yankees could use Bader’s injury to buy themselves a few more weeks with the out of options Estevan Florial, who has done nothing to help his case this spring (3-for-24 with 11 strikeouts). Willie Calhoun (9-for-24) is a DH candidate more than an outfield candidate and non-roster journeyman Rafael Ortega has done more walking than hitting this spring (4-for-18 with six walks).

"He's been one of the guys that stood out to me with the bat, especially against right-handed pitching, I feel like even before Harrison's injury," Boone told Rivera about Ortega. "He's very much in the mix of things with what we think he can provide us from an outfield versatility, but also what he can provide against right-handed pitching."

Jurickson Profar remains unsigned (he went 3-for-13 during World Baseball Classic pool play) and the Yankees could sign him to strengthen the outfield, though he’s a full-time left fielder, so he wouldn’t solve the center field problem. He just makes it easier to move Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera around. Trading for a center fielder better than Florial/Ortega will be nigh impossible before Opening Day. How’s this for center field options ranked in order of how likely they are to happen?

1. Aaron Judge
2. Rafael Ortega
3. Aaron Hicks
4. Estevan Florial
5. Oswaldo Cabrera
6. Free agent or trade
7. Jasson Domínguez

Cabrera played a few innings in center last week and I imagine we’ll see him out there again before the end of the Grapefruit League season. The Yankees were comfortable sticking him in left and right despite basically zero outfield experience last year. I could see them doing it with center field too. Maybe Cabrera should be No. 3 in those rankings? Feels too high, but maybe.

The Yankees must replace Bader on the roster in addition to in center field specifically, and they kinda need another actual outfielder. They’ll have Judge and Hicks. After them you’re looking at Cabrera and Giancarlo Stanton as outfielders, and Stanton’s not an everyday outfielder at this point in his career. The Yankees have indicated Isiah Kiner-Falefa will see outfield time this spring, but no way can he be counted on as an everyday outfielder. That’s an emergency thing.

This is reminiscent of 2019. Hicks and Jacoby Ellsbury got hurt in Spring Training and the Yankees saw Stanton more as a DH, so Judge and Brett Gardner were their only legit outfielders going into the season. We were talking about Tyler Wade in center field! Remember that? Then the Yankees traded for Mike Tauchman near the end of camp. They needed another real outfielder. Not a most of the time DH like Stanton or a utility guy like Wade.

The Yankees need a real outfielder to replace Bader. Not a most of the time DH like Stanton or a utility guy like Cabrera. They don’t have to trade for a Tauchman type with Florial and Ortega right there, but they need a third legitimate outfielder on the roster alongside Hicks and Judge. That player won’t stop them from playing Judge in center and he doesn’t need to be anything more than a bench guy, but the Yankees need a real outfielder to have the most functional roster.

I’d go with Ortega in Bader’s roster spot and start him in center field against righties. I don’t trust Florial to hit and the Yankees need another lefty bat who can contribute. Ortega isn’t some great hitter or anything and he’s not Florial defensively, but he’s useful and I think the best candidate the Yankees have for that open center field spot. Something like this until Bader returns:

vs. RHP
LF Oswaldo Cabrera
CF Rafael Ortega
RF Aaron Judge

vs. LHP
LF Aaron Hicks
CF Aaron Judge
RF Oswaldo Cabrera

If the Yankees go with Florial to put off a final decision with him (and preserve depth by stashing Ortega in Triple-A), fine. I would understand it even though I don’t agree with it. I think Ortega is more likely to help the 2023 Yankees win. It’s that simple. Bader’s injury means Hicks will play (groan) and Cabrera will be a bigger factor in the outfield than I think the Yankees planned given how little outfield he’s played this spring (no more than five innings in each outfield spot).

“Hopefully (by Opening Day) we kind of have an idea of okay, it’s going to be two more weeks or three more weeks, whatever,” Boone told Joyce. “So it’s like alright, how short-term of a situation are we looking at? That will factor in what our roster looks like. Could be a little different in two and a half weeks, you never know. We’ll try to make the best decision. It might be something where we’re mixing and matching a little for a couple weeks until Harrison gets back.”

I think we’ll see Hicks-Judge-Cabrera from left to right to begin the season, which is what we saw a bunch after Andrew Benintendi’s injury last year. If it happens, it will mean Hicks is still somehow playing everyday after last season. Not addressing left field this offseason was a major  failure by the front office. The Yankees at least have young shortstops knocking on the door to justify passing on all those top free agents. What’s the excuse for left field?

Hicks-Judge-Cabrera in the outfield with Florial or Ortega on the bench seems most likely to me given the available personnel. Regardless, the Yankees will miss Bader. He’s a game-changing defender and we have to wait a little longer to find out whether last postseason’s power binge was a sign of real improvement. Get well soon, Harrison. Please don’t suffer a setback.

"Obviously, he brings athleticism on the offensive side. We all saw what he did in the postseason with the bat too. He's a big part of our team," Boone told Rivera about Bader. "And even though this may delay that a little bit, he's still going to be a huge part of the team this year on a long-term basis. We're confident of that, too."

2. Grapefruit League observations. The Yankees are more than halfway through their spring schedule: 18 games down, 15 more to go. We’re a few days away from pitchers coming down with March dead arm phases and hitters complaining Spring Training is too long. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

The shortstop competition

There are two weeks remaining in Spring Training and a lot can happen in two weeks, but it’s starting to feel like Anthony Volpe is forcing the Yankees’ hand. Sunday he doubled against actual big leaguer Tanner Houck and homered against actual big leaguer Chris Martin (video), both to the opposite field. He also flew out to deep right field later in the game.

“I definitely liked my approach coming off my first at-bat against Houck,” Volpe told Bryan Hoch after the game. “He definitely had really good stuff. I wanted to get to the bottom of a two-seam, and it’s nice when your approach matches up and you take a good swing. You get a good result.”

Volpe is 9-for-28 (.321) with four doubles, two homers, three steals in three attempts, four walks, and six strikeouts thus far this spring. For kicks, here is the team’s Grapefruit League average exit velocity leaderboard (min. 10 balls in play):

1. Giancarlo Stanton: 90.4 mph
2. Anthony Volpe: 90.0 mph
3. Jasson Domínguez: 89.9 mph

Baseball Reference’s opponent quality metric says Volpe has faced mostly Double-A-ish pitching, which surprised me given how often he’s started and led off this spring, but I don’t doubt the number. Volpe hasn’t faced great competition and he’s done what he should do against that competition. He’s hit well, he’s run the bases well, he’s played well defensively, and his baseball IQ is obvious.

“I think there’s a lot of time left. A lot of games left,” Volpe told Hoch. “For me, it’s just trying to take advantage of every opportunity. Having the coaching staff and support staff to work with you and get it right in the games (helps). It’s definitely early, but everyone wants to perform in the games.”

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has picked it up at the plate the last few days (5-for-19 overall) and Oswald Peraza has been sneaky bad this spring (3-for-17). The Yankees aren’t the type to make decisions based on Spring Training performance though, not unless it’s the last spot in the bullpen or a lower profile role like that. Here’s the Grapefruit League usage breakdown:

Peraza missed a few days with a foot issue last week, so he’s behind the other two in total games played, otherwise the playing time at shortstop has been evenly distributed. Volpe’s spent more time at second than the other two, plus he’s played less with potential big league double play partners DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres. Kiner-Falefa’s three games at second and third have been the last three games he's played. The Yankees have begun shifting him around the infield.

"That’s three in a row moving around. I don’t want to make too much of it, but it’s definitely something. It’s three days in a row,” Kiner-Falefa told Greg Joyce. That can be read as a complaint, though it also sounds a bit like a concession speech. Kiner-Falefa isn't stupid. He can see what the Yankees have coming at his position.

Peraza has been overshadowed by Volpe (who hasn’t?) and he has underwhelmed this spring, but the kid just got his 20th plate appearance Monday. He’s played well in the field and is one good game away from a respectable batting line. The freakout over Peraza’s spring would have been greater if he were the young shortstop instead of one of two, when it would still be greater than it should be. It’s probably for the best Volpe has taken attention away from Peraza.

If this is truly an “open competition” as Brian Cashman put it, then I don’t see how Volpe is not the front runner. He’s been head and shoulders above Kiner-Falefa and Peraza this spring. He’s been head and shoulders above everyone in camp, I think. There are reasons to send Volpe to Triple-A. And every game he plays, he gives the Yankees reasons to put him at short.

The Yankees have not started a rookie position player on Opening Day in a very long time. I mean a true rookie making his MLB debut on Opening Day, not someone like Aaron Judge in 2017 or Derek Jeter in 1996 (they debuted one year earlier). If you count Hideki Matsui in 2003, he’s the last to do it. If you don’t count Matsui, it’s Jerry Lumpe in 1956. Putting a true rookie position player in the Opening Day lineup isn’t in this franchise’s DNA.

But maybe it should be? Times have changed, Volpe isn’t most rookies, and the Yankees badly need an infusion of youth and energy. Peraza can provide that too, sure, but Volpe’s the better player even if he’s not as gifted defensively. It doesn’t have to be one or the other anyway. There can be room for both (ideally by moving on from Josh Donaldson). Teams driven to win make room for talented young players. Teams content with the status quo make excuses.

We’ll see how things play out these last two weeks of Spring Training. To date, Volpe has done everything he’s needed to do to win a fair and legitimate competition. If nothing else, he’s making it hard for the Yankees to send them down, and has guaranteed there will be some fan outrage if they do send him down. Volpe has answered the bell every time he’s been challenged in his career. He was challenged with a shortstop competition this spring, and he’s excelling.

“Let’s put it this way: Anthony Volpe’s doing everything he needs to do,” Cashman told Joyce last week. “Now we’ll see how, ultimately, he measures up compared to everybody else in our internal dialogues. That hasn’t happened yet. I know everybody would love to have an answer or decision sooner than later, but we’re not prepared to make those decisions yet. But he’s having a great camp and we’re proud of him.”

Nasty Nestor’s schedule (and the rotation order)

Nestor Cortes (hamstring) still has not pitched in a Grapefruit League game. He threw live batting practice yet again Monday, and as long as he comes out of that okay, he’ll make his spring debut Sunday, according to Hoch. Cortes will make at most two Grapefruit League starts before Opening Day. How’s this schedule look?

• Sunday, March 19th: Grapefruit League debut
• Friday, March 24th: Grapefruit League game (normal rest)
• Wednesday, March 29th: Simulated game (normal rest, day before Opening Day)
• Tuesday, April 4th: Regular season debut (extra day of rest, fifth regular season game)

It’s a little tight. The Florida rain could screw things up these next two weeks and the Yankees might want to give Cortes extra rest between his Grapefruit League starts given the injury, but that schedule is doable and reasonable enough. Here’s a schedule with a little more rest:

• Sunday, March 19th: Grapefruit League game
• Saturday, March 25th: Grapefruit League game (extra day of rest)
• Friday, March 31st: Simulated game (extra day of rest, off-day after Opening Day)
• Wednesday, April 5th: Regular season debut (normal rest, sixth regular season game)

The off-day after Opening Day allows the Yankees to start Gerrit Cole on normal rest in the fifth game of the season on April 4th, then Cortes can start the sixth game of the season on April 5th. That’s as far back as they can push him without using a spot starter. Like this:

• Thursday, March 30th vs. Giants: Gerrit Cole (Opening Day)
• Friday, March 31st: off-day
• Saturday, April 1st vs. Giants: Luis Severino
• Sunday, April 2nd vs. Giants: Domingo Germán
• Monday, April 3rd vs. Phillies: Clarke Schmidt
• Tuesday, April 4th vs. Phillies: Gerrit Cole on normal rest
• Wednesday, April 5th vs. Phillies: Nestor Cortes (would need spot starter otherwise)

Sensible enough. And that’s how the rotation lines up, by the way. Over the last week the Yankees have started Cole, Schmidt, Severino, Germán, bullpen game in that order. Schmidt is not taking Carlos Rodón’s No. 2 spot. There’s the off-day after Opening Day, so there’s a day between Cole and Severino now to get them lined up for Games 1 and 2, respectively. Schmidt will get bumped back a few days soon to make it all work.

Cortes has enough time for only two Grapefruit League starts. It’s not ideal. You can get work in and build up your pitch count in live batting practice, but you can’t replicate game intensity. Even Spring Training games get the juices flowing. Health is the most important thing and Nestor is currently healthy enough to pitch and build up. It’s not a normal spring build up, but such is life when you get hurt days before camp.

“No doubt,” Cortes said during a YES interview (video) when asked whether he’ll be ready for the start of the season. “I think I’ve prepared well enough so far this spring, and hopefully can get into live games soon. Just staying ready, staying up to par with the other starters to make sure I can start the season with them.”

Latest roster cuts

The Yankees announced more roster cuts over the weekend: RHP Randy Vásquez and RHP Jhony Brito, my No. 10 and No. 20 prospects, were optioned to minor league camp Saturday. Vásquez threw two innings Thursday and Brito threw three innings Friday. Brito faced 36 batters this spring and didn’t walk any, staying true to his strike-thrower scouting report.

Brito pitched well at Double-A and Triple-A last year and he’s on the 40-man roster, and injuries have opened multiple bullpen spots. The Yankees figure to carry a long man early in the season for several reasons:

• Nestor Cortes won’t be fully stretched out following the hamstring injury.
• We don’t really know what to expect from Clarke Schmidt as a starter.
• The Yankees typically ease their starters into action early in the season.

I was initially surprised Brito was sent down because I figured he was a candidate for that long man job, but I get it. This is a rotation depth move. Brito is No. 6 on the rotation depth chart and the Yankees are getting him stretched out to start. Innings will be harder to come by in big league camp, so Brito will go across the street to get his work in. Makes sense.

Vásquez might be No. 7 on the rotation depth chart even though he doesn’t have any Triple-A experience, and has been good more than great in Double-A. He wasn’t a candidate for the Opening Day roster even with all the injuries. Minor league camp is where Vásquez belongs this late in Spring Training. Here’s the updated spring roster (crossed out means the player has been sent to minor league camp, asterisk means the player is out of minor league options):

I put Florial on the bench and Krook and Weissert in the bullpen, but they’re placeholders. It could be Ortega instead of Florial, Cordero instead of Weissert, etc. That stuff will be sorted out these next two weeks. That’s just where the roster sits right now, after the latest cuts. (Minor league spring games begin Wednesday. I’d expect more cuts before then.)

In other roster news, the Mets put RHP Zach Greene on outright waivers Sunday, according to Anthony DiComo. The Mets took Greene from the Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s had a crummy spring (4.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 6 BB, 5 K, 1 HR) and was gonna have a tough time cracking that roster anyway. Another team could claim Greene on waivers, but if he clears, the Mets must offer him back to the Yankees. Greene’s not back just yet. The process is underway though.

Upcoming games

Grapefruit League record check: 8-9-1 with a +0 run differential. That’s about as average as it gets. Here’s what the Yankees have coming up between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday vs. Blue Jays (6:30pm ET): no broadcast
• Wednesday vs. Phillies (1pm ET): YES Network
• Thursday vs. Pirates (6:30pm ET): no broadcast

No Yankees on Monday, Tuesday, or Thursday. Lame. That just means more time to watch the World Baseball Classic. Other than that abomination of a game between Canada and Great Britain on Sunday, the WBC has been a blast.

Speaking of the WBC, Jonathan Loáisiga will rejoin the Yankees in a day or two. He blew Nicaragua’s game Saturday (video) and they’ll play their final game Tuesday. Nicaragua is a heavy underdog and wasn’t expected to advance beyond the first round anyway. USA is not a lock to advance, so Kyle Higashioka could be back by the end of the week. Venezuela and Gleyber Torres have a good chance to move on, so he’ll probably be away from camp a little longer.

Miscellany

Anthony Rizzo was scratched from Sunday’s lineup and held out of Monday’s lineup because his back was “cranky” and it is “something we wanted to stay ahead of,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. Rizzo took batting practice Monday, per Jon Heyman, so it seems minor. As you know, Rizzo has a long history of back problems, and they force him to sit out a few games a couple times a year. Last season they worsened to the point that he needed an epidural in September. Rizzo is the only impact lefty bat on the roster. When he misses time, the best lefty bat in the lineup will be Oswaldo Cabrera. Fingers crossed this is just a minor back flare up for Rizzo like most of his other back flare ups … And finally, righty Daniel Bies was on the travel roster for Saturday’s split squad road game. Bies, a seventh round pick in 2018, is a 6-foot-9 behemoth with a career 28.8% strikeout rate in the minors. I listed him as a sleeper prospect heading into 2021, and soon thereafter he blew out his elbow and had his second career Tommy John surgery. Bies last appeared in an official game on Aug. 24th, 2019. I hoped he would get into Saturday’s game but alas, he did not. Bies turns 27 in April and he’s sticking with it. Glad he’s healthy again and I wish him success.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Diamondbacks signed OF Corbin Carroll to an eight-year, $111M extension over the weekend. There’s a club option and escalators that could push the total value to $134M. Carroll made his MLB debut late last season and he is the consensus No. 2 prospect in baseball. The contract covers his six years of team control plus two free agent years with an option for a third, and takes him through his age 30 season. Would you give Anthony Volpe that contract right now? Volpe is nine months younger than Carroll and also a highly regarded prospect, but Carroll has more Triple-A experience and has performed better above Single-A. If Volpe is as good as the Yankees think, good enough that it was worth passing on all those top free agent shortstops, why wouldn’t they lock him up now at favorable terms? Obviously it ain’t happening, but here’s a relevant data point. Carroll set the market for extending Volpe at some point in 2023 … And finally, the Yankees took home $344.7M in ticket sales for the 2022 season, according to Brendan Coffey. That number is not an estimate like the Forbes franchise valuations. It comes directly from the Yankees as part of a regulatory filing with the State of New York related to the financing of the new Yankee Stadium. That’s $344.7M before a hot dog is sold, before a JUDGE 99 shirt comes off the rack, and before advertising space is sold. Baseball teams have lots of expenses and the Yankees get hammered by the revenue sharing program, but lordy. Ticket sales alone covered player payroll and the luxury tax bill ($264.4M total) with plenty of room to spare last season.

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