March 10th, 2023: Rodón, Trivino, Bader, Judge, Loáisiga, Mailbag

Aaron Boone celebrated his 50th birthday Thursday by taking batting practice in Aaron Judge’s and Giancarlo Stanton’s group, and he went deep! Bat flipped and everything. Here’s the video (here’s a different angle). “I told my kids I was gonna try to go deep on my 50th birthday, so I had to hold true. I was a little nervous because there were a lot of people out there. I was like, ‘this might not end well,’” Boone said during his in-game interview with YES. Think he can play left field? Not sure the Yankees need another righty bat though. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Rodón and Trivino to begin season on IL. So much for not worrying about Carlos Rodón’s velocity. Rodón, the only meaningful upgrade the Yankees made this past offseason, will start the season on the injured list with what the Yankees called a “mild” forearm strain. There is no such thing as a “mild” forearm strain though when the pitcher has already had Tommy John surgery and is not even through the first Spring Training of his six-year contract.

“I’m glad he said something. This could have been much worse,” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch. “Trying to pitch through (injuries) is not a good thing, especially this time of year. If this was obviously in-season, pennant race, late in the game, he’s still probably up and running.”

Rodón downplayed the injury, saying he had a similar issue last May (not reassuring!) and he would have pitched through it had it been the postseason. “I’m not here to pitch ‘til the All-Star break. I’m here to pitch well into October,” Rodón told Hoch. He will not throw for 10 days and the Yankees hope he will join the rotation sometime in April.

“I can go out there and perform, but am I performing at my best? And how long am I going to last throughout the season if I continue down this road?” Rodón told Hoch. “... I’m hoping this goes by fairly quickly. I can’t put a number on any of this. I feel better than I did after I threw against Atlanta (on Sunday), for sure. But as you know, some of these things take time.”

Forearm strains are often a precursor to Tommy John surgery but not always, and Cashman said tests showed Rodón’s elbow ligament is intact. That’s good, but there is something wrong in there. Rodón’s body is telling him stop, I don’t like this. If he returns too soon, before the forearm muscles are healthy and ready to take the stresses of pitching, those stresses instead pass through the ligament, and it could snap. That’s how forearm strains turn into Tommy John surgery.

Rodón’s injury means both Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt will be in the rotation to start the season (so much for that poll, eh?). This is Schmidt’s Big Chance. He’s got a rotation spot. Pitch well and he’ll keep it even after Rodón returns. The depth behind Germán and Schmidt is lacking though, so much so that Cashman mentioned Deivi García as an option. I’m glad he’s throwing 98 mph this spring, but Deivi has no business being considered rotation depth after his last two years. The GM mentioning García as depth on March 10th is yikes.

Also, Lou Trivino’s hurt. He has an elbow ligament sprain and will be out until at least May, and anytime you’re talking about the ligament, Tommy John surgery is a concern. “He’s never really been hurt before, so it’s a little bit longer time frame, but it’s resolvable,” Cashman told Hoch. Trivino’s not as significant a loss as Rodón, but he is a loss nonetheless. The rotation and the bullpen have taken several hits this spring. It stinks.

The Yankees have acquired five Major League pitchers since last summer’s trade deadline and every one – every single one! – will begin the season on the injured list with an arm injury:

• Scott Effross (Tommy John surgery)
• Tommy Kahnle (biceps tendinitis)
• Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery)
• Carlos Rodón (forearm strain)
• Lou Trivino (elbow sprain)

Remarkable. Disastrous, even, though Rodón and Kahnle could return in fairly short order. The Montas* trade is close to a total loss anyway, even a healthy Trivino was only helping so much, but Trivino missing time too is salt in the wound. Trading Ken Waldichuk (Montas and Trivino) and Hayden Wesneski (Effross) for what amounts to zero return is devastating. Less rotation depth and fewer trade chips now.

“It’s part of doing business when you’re dealing with pitching,” Cashman told Hoch about all the pitching injuries. “You’re just thankful that you’re not losing anybody permanently, but it doesn’t make it any easier.”

* Earlier this week Montas admitted he wasn’t 100% physically at the time of the trade and no duh. He left a start early and missed two others with shoulder trouble in the weeks leading up to the deadline last year. It’s not Montas’ responsibility to tell the Yankees he’s hurt and they shouldn’t trade for him. They reviewed the medicals, decided he was worth the gamble, and lost.

No Kahnle and no Trivino all but guarantees the out of options Albert Abreu will make the Opening Day roster. Likely Greg Weissert as well, and the Yankees figure to carry a long reliever type too because Nestor Cortes is working his way back from a hamstring injury and probably won’t be fully stretched out come Opening Day. The new projected Opening Day bullpen:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: RHP Mike King, RHP Jonathan Loáisiga, LHP Wandy Peralta
• Middle: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Greg Weissert
• Long: RHP Jhony Brito or LHP Matt Krook?

Jimmy Cordero is probably next in line, then there's Randy Vásquez (no Triple-A experience), García, and non-roster guys like Ian Hamilton and Ryan Weber. Yeesh. How long until the Yankees re-sign Zack Britton? They have plenty of 40-man roster flexibility and there’s a need in the bullpen now. If they don’t re-sign Britton now, they never will.

There is very little pitching available. Free agency has been picked clean and no one is trading an impactful arm in March. Veterans on minor league deals with spring opt outs are Chad Kuhl and Tommy Milone types. Maybe there’s an Estevan Florial and/or Isiah Kiner-Falefa for a depth arm trade to be made? Knowing the Yankees, they’ll probably stick with what they have.

The Yankees’ strength was expected to be – and still is – the pitching staff. They did nothing to upgrade the offense over the winter. Any offensive improvement will come from full seasons of Harrison Bader (more on him in a bit) and Oswaldo Cabrera, whichever kid the Yankees put at shortstop, and good health/bounce back seasons from guys in their mid-30s. That’s a lot to ask, and with so many pitchers getting hurt, it puts more pressure on the offense to pick up the slack.

Kahnle, Montas, Rodón, and Trivino will all miss the start of the season. As long as they’re healthy in time for the postseason, fine, but injuries are chipping away at the team’s strength and the Yankees are already pushing the limits of their pitching depth. The AL East race figures to be tight, ditto the race for one of the league’s top two records (and thus a Wild Card Series bye), and these injuries hurt their odds. It ain’t great. The margin of error is shrinking, and Rodón is far from out of the woods regarding a potential long-term injury.

"We're going to find out (if we have enough depth). I feel good about what we're seeing from the guys down here so far, and especially the pitchers trying to vie for the back end,” Cashman told Marly Rivera. “Ultimately, outside of Montas, we haven't lost anybody for significant time yet. But clearly it's not a good situation when you're down a starter that you were counting on. But at the same time, it's March and it gives us time to allow it to heal and recover."

2. Grapefruit League observations. Aaron Judge is on board with #VolpeningDay. “I think he’s got all the makeup tools. He checks a lot of boxes defensively, offensively. He’s a tough at-bat. He’s got the speed, which is a big factor now in the game. My thing has always been if you’re the best player, it shouldn’t matter your age. You should be up helping the New York Yankees. It doesn’t matter if you’re 19 or 41. If you’re the best guy for the job, you should be playing,” Judge told Bryan Hoch about Volpe. Well said, Captain. We’ll find out whether the front office agrees in less than three weeks. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Bader has an oblique issue

The injuries keep coming: Harrison Bader felt something in his left oblique after taking a swing Wednesday. Bader went for tests Thursday and the Yankees haven’t provided an update yet. We should get word Friday. Even minor oblique injuries can take a few weeks to heal. Decent chance Bader will miss Opening Day. Sigh.

“He’s getting tested. We’ll see what we have there,” Aaron Boone told Randy Miller. “He swung and felt something in there. You don’t like to see that.”

Bader is no stranger to the injured list. He’s played 505 of 708 possible regular season games since 2018 (71%), and only 189 of 324 possible regular season games the last two years (58%). His injury history includes a hamstring strain, forearm tightness, a broken rib, last year’s plantar fasciitis, and now a left oblique injury. I repeat: sigh.

We can worry about what the Yankees will do in center field once we get an update on Bader’s injury and timetable. I don’t think they want to put Judge in center field again though. They don’t want him running around that much. Bader’s injury opens the door for Estevan Florial, who is out of options, or Rafael Ortega to make the Opening Day. Florial/Ortega might just play everyday too. We’ll see what the tests say, but the Yankees need Bader’s glove and bat. He would be a major loss.

Judge plays left field

For the first time since the 2018 All-Star Game and the first time on back-to-back days since he was in Triple-A in 2016, Judge played left field this week. He started Wednesday and Thursday in left and was not tested. Three balls were hit Judge’s way, all singles that plopped in front of him and were uncatchable. The lack of defensive chances can happen when you play only eight innings in the field.

“You’re just dealing with right-handed, pull-side line drives. I think that’s the biggest factor,” Judge told Hoch about the differences between right and left fields. “Everything else is pretty much the same. You’ve just got to get used to the spin (being) a little different. When you have a Giancarlo Stanton 112 (mph) liner right at you, you don’t know if you need to come in or go back on it. Thank goodness he’s on our team, so I won’t have to deal with that.”

Remember when the Yankees put Stanton in left field in 2018 and the very first ball hit his way in Spring Training was a screamer that turned him around and sailed over his head? That bad first impression created the “Stanton is uncomfortable in left field” narrative, which isn’t really true. Judge didn’t have that rude welcome. He didn’t do much more than stand in left field in his two games this week.

It sounds like the Yankees will continue experimenting with Judge in left field and eventually he’ll get tested out there. He needs a few rockets hit his way. You don’t want Judge to experience the difference in spin for the first time in the regular season. His first two days in left field didn’t tell us much, but I think Judge will be perfectly fine out there. He’s too good a defender.

Loáisiga adding a sweeper

Two years ago Jonathan Loáisiga broke out in part because he switched from a curveball to a slider, which paired better with his sinker and an east-west pitching style. It’s a traditional slider with upper-80s velocity and about six inches of horizontal break. For comparison’s sake, Mike King’s breaking ball was among the league leaders at 18 inches in 2022.

This spring Loáisiga is working to convert his slider into a sweeper, which would give him that cartoonishly large horizontal movement. He was working on it in camp and plans to continue working on it during the World Baseball Classic. “It’s not perfect right now, but I think it’s definitely usable, depending on the situation,” Loáisiga told Greg Joyce earlier this week.

Loáisiga appeared in two Grapefruit League games before leaving for the WBC and he didn’t throw any sliders in one of them. It was fastballs and changeups only. In the other game he threw only two sliders, one with four inches of horizontal break and the other with five inches. I don’t doubt Loáisiga is working on a sweeper. We just haven’t seen it yet.

Loáisiga had a fairly small platoon split the last two seasons, holding lefties to a .276 wOBA with a 4.5% barrel rate and righties to a .242 wOBA and a 1.4% barrel rate. He was outstanding against righties and merely very good against lefties. Sweepers have sizable platoon split, so if Loáisiga picks it up, he figures to be even better against righties and a bit worse against lefties.

Could there be diminishing returns by having so many similar relievers? Loáisiga is attempting to learn the sweeper, and if successful, he’ll be a sinker/sweeper pitcher similar to King and Clay Holmes. Holmes throws more sinkers than the other two and he’s kinda starting to go back to a traditional slider, plus they have different release points …

… so they aren’t carbon copies. They do give hitters a similar look though (ditto Greg Weissert). It’s an upper-90s fastball with run and a big sweeping slider away from righties. Loáisiga throws the occasional changeup and King some straight four-seamers, but at their core, they are all sinker/sweeper righty relievers, at least if Loáisiga successfully picks up the sweeper.

I don’t think having so many relievers who look the same will matter much. They’re all a little bit different and there are sinker/sweeper relievers everywhere. This is not some pitching approach unique to the Yankees. Hopefully Loáisiga picks up the sweeper and he’s even better. And if it’s not coming along and the pitch proves to be a liability, I hope he’s quick to abandon it.

Yankees sign Ciuffo

The Yankees have their depth catcher with MLB experience. We heard they were looking for one last week with Josh Breaux (elbow), Ben Rortvedt (aneurysm), and Austin Wells (rib) all hurt. The Yankees have signed Nick Ciuffo to a minor league deal, according to the transactions page. Ciuffo, the No. 21 pick in the 2013 draft, got into 21 big league games with the Rays and Orioles from 2018-21. He spent last season with the White Sox's Triple-A affiliate.

Ciuffo, 28, has rated as a solid pitch-framer and okay blocker and thrower throughout his career according to the catcher stats at Baseball Prospectus. He’s never been much of a hitter though: .248/.294/.348 (90 wRC+) in over 2,000 minor league plate appearances. Ciuffo, a lefty hitter, is a poor man’s Rob Brantly. Little less glove, little less bat, little less MLB experience. This was the best the Yankees were going to do in Spring Training. The best depth catchers signed weeks ago.

Upcoming games

Grapefruit League record check: 7-6 with a +6 run differential. Did you know the Red Sox are 9-0-3 with a +47 run differential? The Yankees lost to them Thursday. Hopefully Tyler Danish isn’t around during the regular season to give up three home runs and get one out like he did in that game. Anyway, here’s what’s coming up between now and Tuesday’s post:

• Friday at Tigers (1pm ET): Tigers broadcast
• Saturday vs. Phillies (1pm ET): YES Network
• Saturday at Pirates (1pm ET): Pirates broadcast
• Sunday at Red Sox (1pm ET): Red Sox broadcast
• Monday at Twins (1pm ET): no broadcast

Nestor Cortes (hamstring) threw live batting practice Wednesday and could make his Grapefruit League debut Monday, though an extra day of rest is common in Spring Training. He might not pitch until Tuesday. Either way, we should see Cortes in a game soon. If not, it’ll be time to wonder exactly how ready he will be for the regular season.

We’re in the dog days of Spring Training. Other than Cortes, there’s nothing new coming up. Everyone who is supposed to play has gotten into games, Judge has given left field a whirl, the shortstop competition is ongoing, etc. No major spring milestones coming up. Only two weeks and six days until Opening Day. We’re almost there. Hopefully no one else gets hurt.

Miscellany

Oswald Peraza returned to the lineup Thursday after doing something to his leg running through first base Sunday, and all went well. He went 1-for-3 with a double, then took third and home on pitches in the dirt. Peraza seemed to be running fine, and there were no apparent issues in the field either. A minor injury that proved to be a minor injury. What a concept … Ron Marinaccio made his Grapefruit League debut Thursday and looked like himself. Velocity and all that were where they need to be. The Yankees slow played him this spring after last year’s shin injury and the other day I said it would be time to worry if Marinaccio didn’t get into a game by next week. Well, he pitched Thursday, and he looked good. Good news … Scott Effross started his throwing program Monday, according to Joyce. He had his Tommy John surgery in mid October, so he’s five months out and on schedule with his rehab. This early in the throwing program, Effross is playing light catch at 60 feet. It is baby steps. The mid October surgery date means we won’t see him this season. Effross is making progress though, so that’s good. See you next spring, Scott … And finally, I just want to make sure y’all saw Jasson Domínguez’s home run on Thursday (video). It was a tank. That is a strong young man with serious bat speed. Domínguez is 7-for-16 (.438) with three homers, three walks, and two strikeouts this spring. I’m not sure he’s faced a single pitcher who is a lock for an MLB roster spot yet, but I’m not trying to tell you his spring means something anyway. I’m just here to say it’s fun as hell. Great spring for El Marciano. “It's just a result of all the hard work. I understand that whenever you're doing things right and you're working hard on your craft, good things are going to happen,” Domínguez told Hoch following Thursday’s blast.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees will not have a jersey ad patch to begin the season, reports Andrew Marchand. It’s not because they’re against them. It’s because no one has met their asking price. The Red Sox have a 10-year, $170M deal with MassMutual and the Nets get $30M a year from something called WeBull. I imagine the Yankees are aiming higher than that. Marchand says the Yankees could add a patch later in the season, but it is more likely to be pushed off until 2024. Whenever the Yankees make an ad patch deal, I’m guessing payroll will not increase commensurately. Call it a hunch.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dave asks: With the Breaux injury, and lack of AAA catcher depth, if they can’t find a trade partner for IKF, is it worth having him catch some during Spring Training in case it becomes a better option?

They should give Isiah Kiner-Falefa time at catcher regardless of the catcher depth chart. He has 152 career games behind the plate but none since 2019, and you might as well keep him familiar with the position in case there’s an emergency. Even catching a few bullpen sessions would be worthwhile. Kiner-Falefa has caught. Why not keep that option open?

I don’t see Kiner-Falefa as a viable backup catcher though, and it’s not like the Yankees can send him to Triple-A to serve as catching depth (he has enough service time to reject a demotion). He wouldn’t really plug a hole in the depth chart. He’s just an emergency No. 3 catcher in case you pinch-hit for your starter and the backup gets hurt. That kinda thing. I wouldn’t plan on using him in any sorta regular capacity behind the plate.

Two people asked: Is there a rule against issuing an intentional walk by actually throwing four pitches, giving relievers more time to warm up in the pitch clock era?

Two – two! – people sent in similar versions of the same question. Not sure if that says more about me or my audience. Either way, thanks for reading and your support.

As far as I know there’s no rule against throwing four pitches for an intentional walk. How would you even enforce such a rule? The pitcher could just say sorry, I was trying to pitch to him, but I just didn’t locate. Maybe the rule should be you can’t make a pitching change after a walk? Such a rule would be a significant chance to the game, and you can’t limit it to four-pitch walks either. Then you’d just see a bunch of five-pitch walks.

The idea here is the pitch clock and limit on disengagements speed the game up, making it more difficult to stall while a reliever gets ready. You can’t throw over 3-4 times now. Does the limit on disengagements carry over after a pitching change? Or can one pitcher throw over twice in a plate appearance, then a new pitcher can come in and throw over twice more? I hope not. I’d rather limit it to two disengagements per plate appearance period. I’m pro-steals.

I don’t think this will be that big an issue. Even if it is two disengagements per plate appearance regardless of pitcher, the first pitcher can still throw over once, plus you can make a mound visit. A mound visit doesn’t count as a disengagement, and teams still get five per game, plus one for each extra inning. That’s enough time for a reliever to hustle up and get warm.

Also, throw four pitches for an intentional walk to stall and you’re putting a guy on base. When do we typically see teams stall so a reliever can get ready? In high leverage situations. Maybe the starter was left in too long or a reliever came in and doesn’t have it, but there are usually ducks on the pond already. Putting another runner on base would make a sticky situation even worse.

Kyle asks: So we know you’re pulling for #VolpeningDay with the understanding that it likely won’t happen. If you were Boone/Cashman, not taking into account service time manipulation or any other external factors, what would be your opening day lineup and defensive alignment? This would be with the sole goal of winning MLB games in 2023, nothing else.

I feel like there’s a correct answer to this? Or at least as close to correct as you can get with lineup stuff. I’d go with this batting order once Harrison Bader returns from his hopefully minor oblique injury (fingers crossed):

1. 3B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 2B Gleyber Torres
6. CF Harrison Bader
7. LF Oswaldo Cabrera
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. C Jose Trevino

Josh Donaldson hit an unplayable .198/.275/.326 (73 wRC+) against righties after returning from the injured list in June, but he did hit .280/.353/.480 (135 wRC+) against lefties, albeit in only 85 plate appearances. If you want to put him in the lineup against lefties, I think you slide Judge over to left, put Stanton in right, Donaldson at third (because his glove is still really good), and then LeMahieu or Torres at DH (or Rizzo at DH with LeMahieu at first).

Rookies typically hit ninth and that’s fine, though I have a method to my “Volpe hits eighth and Trevino hits ninth” madness. The shortstop is going to steal a lot of bases, whoever it is. Last year’s stolen base numbers (all levels):

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 22-for-26 (85%)
• Oswald Peraza: 35-for-40 (88%)
• Anthony Volpe: 50-for-57 (88%)

The new rules encourage stolen bases and no matter who the Yankees put at shortstop, stealing bases will be a big part of that player’s game. Bat that player ninth and he’s going to be on base a bunch when Judge comes up, and that’s not always the best time to steal. It could lead to an intentional walk or (worse) a caught stealing and taking a baserunner away with Judge hitting.

Bat the shortstop eighth and you can put his stolen base ability to better use. You can steal in front of Trevino, who isn’t a big power threat and mostly punches singles. Same with LeMahieu. He’s a singles and doubles guy (89% of his hits as a Yankees have been a single or double). Stealing in front of those two can help maximize the impact of Trevino’s and LeMahieu’s hits.

Judge hits a lot of homers and therefore should hit with as many runners on base as possible. Steal in front of him and it might take the bat out of his hands entirely, or result in an out on the bases. In front of Trevino and LeMahieu, the risk of attempting a steal is worth it. It’s not in front of Judge, so move the shortstop up to the No. 8 spot and create a little separation. Make sense?

That’s my lineup to begin the season though. Things change during the long 162-game season and we can shuffle as necessary, but that’s the lineup I’d like to see once Bader returns. If it’s Peraza instead of Volpe, fine, but I think Volpe is the best shortstop in the organization.

Dymtro asks: If no LF emerges this season, would the Yanks consider playing Big G in the OF, and trading for a DH, like they did with Encarnacion a few years back? This would be mainly for playoff alignment, with regular rotation before then. Would be cheaper than overpaying for Reynolds. If so, who would you target?

That is pretty much exactly what the Yankees did with Edwin Encarnación. They had to do some weird things with the lineup during the regular season to make the pieces fit, but once the postseason came around, Giancarlo Stanton played the outfield and Encarnación was the DH. In the postseason, it’s the best lineup every game. There’s no more load management.

The Yankees were hesitant to play Stanton in the outfield last postseason. They did it twice in the ALCS, but Aaron Boone made it sound like it wasn’t their preference. Stanton is 33 now, and he’s had a lot of lower body injuries. Earlier in his career he was an excellent defender (+45 DRS from 2010-17). It’s fair to assume he’s well below that now. Even great defenders decline at his age. Add in the injuries and yeah, Stanton’s more likely a liability than an asset in the field.

I’m not sure the Yankees want to go with the Encarnación approach again but they should keep an open mind. If no good left field option emerges, then sure, put Stanton in the outfield in the postseason and get a new DH. Pull Giancarlo for defense in the late innings (Cameron Maybin was his defensive caddy in the 2019 postseason) and do whatever you have to do to make it work.

Is it possible the Yankees already have that DH candidate in Willie Calhoun? They would have to target a lefty bat for that role, and Calhoun is a lefty with high contact rates and good power (and abysmal defense). Let’s let Calhoun go to Triple-A and prove he’s worth a look before penciling him into the big league lineup though. He hit .264/.337/.437 (92 wRC+) in Triple-A last year. Meh.

Just scanning through depth charts, these players could be a fit for the Encarnación role. They are all rentals and listed alphabetically, not in order of preference or anything like that.

Josh Bell, Guardians: Has a $16.5M player option for 2024, but if he’s mashing, he’ll test free agency. And of course, if Bell is mashing, it’s less likely Cleveland is bad enough that they will consider selling. Catch-22 here.

Ji-Man Choi, Pirates: He’s unplayable against lefties, but he’s hit .248/.361/.447 (127 wRC+) against righties the last four years, and he’s a Yankee Stadium friendly pull heavy lefty. The Yankees had Choi briefly in 2017. If Anthony Rizzo were to suffer a long-term injury, I imagine this is the first player they’d call about. Pittsburgh would obviously sell.

Joc Pederson, Giants: Joc’s defense is so bad these days (-21 DRS and -17 OAA the last two years) that he’s basically a DH. He murders righties though, and it seems like he was specifically made for Yankee Stadium given how often he pulls the ball in the air. The Giants are a bubble team (FanGraphs and PECOTA projections both have them just outside the six-team postseason field) and if they’re out of it, Pederson is the guy I’d target.

Joey Votto, Reds: Maybe? Possibly? Votto is entering the final season of his 10-year, $225M contract, and, at age 39, he may decide it’s time to give up on the career Red dream and chase a ring. Votto is coming off shoulder surgery and hit .205/.319/.370 (92 wRC+) last season, so it’s unclear whether he’s even worth pursuing. That said, this is exactly the kinda big name veteran who unexpectedly hits .315/.440/.650 for two months in pinstripes.

There’s also Shohei Ohtani, who instantly becomes the No. 1 trade target should the Angels actually make him available. You move mountains to get that guy, even as a rental. For now, I’m going to assume the Angels will keep him and try to re-sign him. I’d say Choi is the most likely trade target for the Encarnación role and Pederson is the best target.

Kai asks: How does Volpe compare to pre-2018ish Gleyber? Would Gleyber's MLB performance thus far be a disappointment for Volpe?

Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, and MLB.com all ranked Gleyber Torres as one of the six best prospects in baseball going into 2018, and remember, he was coming off Tommy John surgery at the time. He was a top six prospect even with the injury ding. This spring Anthony Volpe has been just south of that on the top 100 lists, more in the No. 8-12 range.

Gleyber’s scouting reports in 2018 were eerily similar to the current Volpe scouting reports. They both projected to be excellent hitters because they’re smart and make adjustments, and there were questions about whether they fit better at second or third than short. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Torres going into his rookie season in 2018:

At the plate, he showed the ability to hit for a high average and power, as well as a discerning knowledge of the strike zone. In particular, Torres' ability to make quick adjustments set him apart from other high-pedigree prospects. Coaches noted how quickly he would identify the way pitchers were working to get him out, then adjust and close those holes. Defensively, there's no reason Torres can't stick at shortstop, but the emergence of Didi Gregorius in New York necessitated that Torres learn other positions quickly. He shuffled around during his brief season, playing 15 games at third base and 10 more at second base before the injury. He has the above-average range and arm to play those positions or shortstop … He's an average runner, but needs to refine his basestealing technique to increase his efficiency … Evaluators both inside and outside the organization see all-star potential.

The biggest difference is baserunning. Torres is at best an average baserunner and not much of a stolen base threat. Volpe is a very good baserunner and a potential 30+ stolen base guy in his prime thanks to his instincts more than blazing speed. Otherwise if you blocked out the names and read that scouting report, it reads like a Volpe scouting report. It’s kinda freaky, really.

MLB.com gives 20-80 scouting scale grades for each individual tool. Here’s what they had for Torres in 2018 and what they have for Volpe now. As a reminder 50 is average, 20 is terrible, and 80 is elite on the 20-80 scale.

From 2018-19, Gleyber was the guy the scouting reports said he would become. The last three years haven’t gone as well, though he did bounce back in 2022. Torres has a career 114 OPS+ and +11.5 WAR. Only 19 middle infielders have done that through age 25 in the Expansion Era (since 1961). It’s been uneven, no doubt, but Gleyber’s had an excellent start to his career.

To answer the question, I’d say Torres was a slightly better prospect than Volpe, though the gap is small enough that I wouldn’t argue against Volpe now over Torres then. I would not consider Volpe a disappointment if he had Gleyber’s first five years (hopefully they’re a little more consistent), though I suspect a not insignificant portion of the fan base would be disappointed given the hype and who the Yankees passed on (i.e. all those great free agent shortstops) in deference to Volpe.

Thomas asks: Picture this: it’s the 6th inning of a 3-0 Yankees lead. There’s one out and no one on base as Yordan Alvarez steps to the plate. The Yankees tell Aaron Hicks to come in from left field and stand in the general vicinity of third base. They tell DJ LeMahieu, currently playing third, to line up in the “rover” position, halfway between second base and right field. Harrison Bader shades over towards left field. The Yankees get a de facto shift and there’s nothing the umpires can say. Has anyone tried this yet in the spring? Is it currently legal? How long before the Rays or Dodgers give it a go - it’s got to make sense in some situations, right?

The Yankees couldn’t do this shift exactly. LeMahieu is an infielder and would have to keep both feet on the dirt. He can’t go to shallow right or on the other side of second base. The Yankees would have to put an outfielder in shallow right. That general formation is legal though, and the Yankees did it earlier this week. Here’s the defense they used against Nolan Gorman on Wednesday (pic via Max Goodman):

Two infielders on each side of second base with their feet on the dirt, one outfielder in shallow right, one outfielder in right-center, and one outfielder in left-center. Center field is wide open. The Red Sox did something similar against old buddy Joey Gallo last week, though they had the two outfielders in center and right, and left field was undefended.

I’m not sure we’ll see this shift regularly (it’s a much bigger gamble than leaving part of the infield open with traditional infield shifts) but I think we will see it every once in a while in specific situations. If Gallo is up with two outs and a runner in scoring position, sure. This shift cuts down on his chances of pulling a grounder or low line drive through the right side and getting that run home.

“It’s something we’d definitely consider in certain situations,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce about this shift, adding they may only do it a handful of times.

This alignment would be risky for someone like Anthony Rizzo, who does pull the ball a ton but will also punch a liner to left field. If you’re gonna leave a third of the outfield wide open, it must be against a hitter extremely unlikely to hit the ball that way. And even then the Gallos of the sport will mis-hit a pitch to left now and then. We’ll see this shift once in a while. I don’t think it will be a regular thing.

JDK asks: How does minor league camp differ from major league?

It’s more or less the same in terms of workouts and whatnot, just with way more players. Minor league spring games are played on the backfields and they’re informal. If Austin Wells gets healthy soon, he could lead off every inning in a minor league spring game to accumulate at-bats. They’ll pull the plug and end an inning if it goes long and the pitcher’s pitch count is elevated. Stuff like that.

There are four workout groups in minor league camp (Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A) and they play games against those workout groups from other organizations. They travel and everything. Extended Spring Training is the same, though with just one team (not four workout groups) that goes around playing other ExST teams. Don’t bother looking for minor league camp or ExST stats. No one keeps track.

Steve asks: How do MLB players get paid? Do they stretch out their salaries over the course of a calendar year, or does it start Opening Day and run through September? Are they getting paid now in ST? How does that affect the team payroll in instances of a ST trade? If IKF gets traded before the regular season begins, does his new team take on the full $6M or do the couple weeks of ST count as Yankees payroll? Long worded, but I hope you get the idea.

A few years ago a fan on a Wrigley Field tour found Andrew McCutchen’s pay stub in the visiting clubhouse (McCutchen was cool about it). Must be nice taking home $427,098.49 every two weeks, huh?

Anyway, players are paid on the 1st and 15th of every month during the season. They aren’t paid during Spring Training or the postseason, though they get per diem on the road ($145 per day) from the start of Spring Training through the end of the team’s postseason run. There’s also a housing stipend or a team-provided hotel room in Spring Training, and of course hotel rooms on the road during the regular season and postseason. Everyone gets their own room. It’s been a long time since players flew commercial or had hotel roommates.

If the Yankees trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa before Opening Day, his new team takes on his full $6M salary. The Yankees don’t get hit with a luxury tax charge for Spring Training. I can’t find it now, but I remember reading CC Sabathia had his salary paid out during the entire calendar year when he first signed with the Yankees rather than get paid only during the season. It would be kinda weird not getting paid half the year, but I guess when your income is that high, it doesn’t really matter.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)