January 6th, 2023: Sabean, Minaya, Left Field, Ortega, Hot Stove, Mailbag

Earlier this week someone hacked Jack Curry’s Twitter account and I gotta say, what’s the point of hacking Curry if you’re not gonna lob a grenade at Yankees fans and tweet out “Yankees get Reynolds, Volpe+Domínguez going to Pitt” or “Stunner: Yankees have a one-year agreement with Carlos Correa after deal with Mets falls through, money around $60M” or something like that? Whoever it was posted a bunch of nonsensical stuff that was easy to tune out. Big missed opportunity there. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Yankees hire Sabean and Minaya. Two experienced voices have been added to the front office. Earlier this week the Yankees hired Brian Sabean as an executive advisor to GM Brian Cashman and Omar Minaya as a senior advisor to baseball operations. Both hires are official. The Yankees announced them and held conference calls and all that.

“He’s a quality baseball scout and executive,” Cashman told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) about Sabean, though this entire quote applies to Minaya as well. “He’s sat in my chair and understands the pulse of the game and how things emerge and evolve and what you push all-in on and what you push back on. He’s done all of those things with a lot of success.”

Sabean, 66, is returning to the Yankees. He was an important behind-the-scenes figure who helped build the foundation of the late 1990s dynasty. He downplayed his role in the dynasty – "I was a link in the chain," he told Bryan Hoch earlier this week – but Cashman has called Sabean one of the “underrated heroes” of that era of Yankees baseball several times. Here is Sabean’s resume:

• 1978-84: College and summer league coach
• 1985: Yankees scout
• 1986-90: Yankees director of scouting
• 1991-92: Yankees director of player development and scouting
• 1993-94: Giants assistant general manager and vice president of scouting
• 1995: Giants senior vice president of player personnel
• 1996-2015: Giants general manager
• 2016-18: Giants vice president of baseball operations
• 2019-22: Giants executive vice president and senior advisor

Sabean ran scouting and player development when Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams, and many others came into and up through the system. “To be part of that and watch that grow, and then when I left to go to the Giants, seeing it come to fruition was extremely gratifying,” Sabean told Hoch. I can only imagine.

"It's a little bit emotional and overwhelming. Somewhat of a strange twist of fate after 30 years to rejoin the organization that I started in," Sabean told Hoch. "A lot of memories are flashing back, specifically thinking about people like Gene Michael and Bill Livesey, who were very instrumental in my growth as an executive and as a person."

With the Giants, Sabean was criticized for getting out of the NLDS just once in his 12 years with Barry Bonds, relying heavily on aging veterans, and developing few worthwhile position player prospects before Buster Posey arrived in 2009. Then San Francisco won three World Series titles in five years, and the critics went silent. For a long time though Giants fans were not happy with Sabean and the teams he built.

Sabean told Maria Guardado he felt underutilized in his role as a senior advisor with the Giants the last few years, so he let his contract expire on Oct. 31st, then he reached out to the Yankees about a reunion. Cashman wasn’t about to say no to someone he considers a mentor, so they got together and figured out a role, and now Sabean’s back with the Yankees.

As for Minaya, the 64-year-old has been working in front offices since his playing career ended in the mid 1980s. Here’s his resume:

• 1978-84: Played in the minors and overseas
• 1985: Rangers amateur scout
• 1986-88: Rangers scout and minor league coach
• 1989-94: Rangers Latin American scouting coordinator
• 1994-97: Rangers director of professional and international scouting
• 1998-2001: Mets assistant general manager
• 2002-04: Expos general manager
• 2005-10: Mets general manager
• 2011-15: Padres vice president of baseball operations
• 2016-20: Mets special assistant to the general manager
• 2021-22: Mets ambassador

“I just couldn't say no this time,” Minaya told Pete Caldera and Hoch, acknowledging the Yankees have pursued him in the past. “... It’s an honor. This is a successful organization, but the goal every year is to win the World Series. I’m looking forward to doing whatever Brian and the staff want from me.”

Minaya, who grew up in Queens, has also worked as an advisor to the MLBPA (2015-17) and as a consultant to MLB (2022) on scouting initiatives. He has been credited with finding players like Juan Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa, and Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez (all former MVPs with 24 All-Star Games between them) during his time running international scouting for the Rangers.

The GM tenures were rocky, though to be fair to Minaya, he took over the Expos at a time when MLB was trying to contract the team and ownership (first Jeffrey Loria and then MLB itself) provided little financial support*. Also, Minaya’s fingerprints were all over the 2015 Mets team that won the National League pennant. The GM track record is spotty, but Minaya is regarded as one of the best and most respected scouting minds in the game.

* Minaya did make one of the worst trades of this century while with the Expos though.

Minaya’s and Sabean’s new roles with the Yankees were described as jacks of all trades with a hand in everything (amateur scouting, pro scouting, player development, etc.). Sabean told Caldera his first assignment is to “do a deep dive, rewatching all (Yankees) playoff games (from last year),” then discussing his thoughts with Cashman and everyone else in the front office.

"I’m all in. I’ll do anything to help the Yankees win another World Series," Sabean told Hoch. "Our family is thrilled and we’re totally invested."

My guess is the Yankees will have Minaya and Sabean scout the farm system once Spring Training and the regular season begin. Self-scouting is important, you have to know your players better than everyone else knows your players, and Minaya and Sabean can give the Yankees a fresh evaluation of Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, and dozens of others. That is right in their wheelhouses.

“You’re looking at somewhere close to 70+ years of experience in different roles,” Minaya told Hoch. “I think what we’re going to bring to the group is experience in scouting, leadership, and team-building, because we’ve done it. We started off as scouts. That’s what we like to do. We’re blessed to be where we are in our careers, to be able to scout from top to bottom.”

Minaya and Sabean have reputations for being old school, which is not entirely fair, but some reporters fetishize that type of executive (it happened with Dayton Moore and the Royals) and push the narrative. Minaya and Sabean certainly have scouting backgrounds though, and will bring balance to a front office that has been criticized for leaning too heavily on analytics*.

"I'm a big believer this game is about people, the human element," Minaya told Caldera. “We all have to be open to all kinds of forms of new information.”

* I don’t really buy this. The Astros lean on analytics more than any non-Rays team in the sport and they beat the Yankees and go to the World Series every year. Does anyone think they lean on analytics too much? Nope. They’re just better at it. Besides, “analytics” is just a boogeyman word used for things people don’t like or understand. Scouting is analytics! It’s information!

No matter how much fans talked about a shakeup following the ALCS loss, a front office overhaul was never going to happen. The Yankees haven't had a losing season in three decades and they go to the postseason every year. Bringing in Minaya and Sabean types, experienced front office people to provide a new perspective, was the closest thing to a shakeup we'd see, and now it's arrived.

Given the criticism Cashman has received the last few years (not all of it undeserved), we might be headed to a place where fans (or at least Cashman haters) credit Minaya and especially Sabean for moves that work out and blame Cashman for moves that don’t work out. But really, who cares? All that matters is the good moves outnumber the bad moves and that the Yankees win, and win a lot.

Adding smart and successful people to the front office is never a bad thing and few people in the game have as much wide-ranging experience as Minaya and Sabean. The Yankees hired them as advisors, not co-GMs, but their voices will carry weight. Good hires. I can only get so excited about two new advisors, but I have no complaints about adding smart baseball people like Minaya and Sabean to the front office.

"I still have a great passion for the game," Sabean told Hoch. "I really have been exposed to almost everything in the game. I’ve run almost every department you can in an organization. After 30 years of a very eventful stay in San Francisco, I don’t know how much more I could have given or contributed. This is very exciting – to the point of me being nervous – as well as invigorating."

2. The case for sticking with the status quo in left field. I don’t know who it’ll be or how it’ll happen or when it’ll happen, but I expect the Yankees to bring in a new left fielder prior to Spring Training, or at least prior to Opening Day. I don’t think they gave Aaron Judge that contract and then signed Carlos Rodon only to stand pat in left field or with the offense in general*.

* Not-so-fun fact: Yankees other than Judge hit .232/.291/.360 in over 2,300 plate appearances in the second half.

Last month Brian Cashman said he’s comfortable going into the season with what the Yankees have in left field, but a) he said the same thing about shortstop last offseason, and b) what’s the general manager supposed to say? He can’t sound desperate. That said, the fact of the matter is every day that passes without left field acquisition makes it more likely the Yankees go into the season with what they currently have.

"We are prepared to go with what we have internally. Aaron Hicks has rehabbed his knee from the injury in the postseason and he's doing really well. He'll be ready to go in Spring Training," Cashman said last month (video). "Obviously Oswaldo Cabrera was fantastic in his little audition of outfield work. Those are the primary defaults with (Estevan) Florial. Ultimately, we'll stay engaged and see where it takes us. We know there's an area there we'd love to upgrade if we can, but that doesn't mean that we will."

I think sticking with the status quo in left field would be a mistake. I also try to run a full service blog and cover all angles (or at least I did when I posted multiple times a day), so I’m going to make the case for the Yankees sticking with what they have in left field. You or I may not agree with it, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see the logic. Let’s get to it.

The available options aren’t great

We might as well start here. Other than Judge and Brandon Nimmo, this wasn’t a particularly great free agent outfield class to begin with, and all the best players have already signed. Here, once again, are the best available free agent outfielders by projected 2023 WAR:

1. Jurickson Profar: +1.4 WAR (my Scouting the Market post)
2. A.J. Pollock: +1.0 WAR
3. Tommy Pham: +1.0 WAR
4. David Peralta: +0.9 WAR
5. Andrew McCutchen: +0.7 WAR

Bryan Reynolds is far and away the best trade candidate and the Pirates seem unwilling to move off their big asking price, and I get it given what Daulton Varsho fetched. Max Kepler is the other obvious trade candidate and he is underwhelming. Trent Grisham is interesting enough, but a) he needs to be fixed, and b) it’s unclear whether he’s even realistically available.

Making a move because you feel like you have to make a move often leads to regret. If you don’t love the available options, either because you don’t love the players themselves or because the asking prices are too great, then don’t force it. We’re not talking about passing up premium free agents or trade candidates here. The available options kinda stink, so stand pat.

Cabrera deserves an extended look

It was only 44 games, but they were 44 impressive games. Cabrera came up in August and was asked to play the outfield regularly for the first time in his life, and he answered the bell. He looked comfortable in the outfield (in right moreso than left) and eventually settled in at the plate. Cabrera played well enough to enter the postseason as the starting left fielder.

• Cabrera total (171 PA): .247/.312/.429 (111 wRC+) and 6 HR
• Cabrera’s final 91 PA: .304/.389/.595 (150 wRC+) and 6 HR

The power-heavy slash line is pretty much exactly what I expected from Cabrera. He figures to be a lower on-base guy who strikes out a bit more than average (25.7% strikeouts and 13.4% swinging strikes in 2022), but mashes a bunch of taters, plays all over the field, and brings a lot of energy to the team. Cabrera is already a good role player for a contender and that’s important.

But given his age (24 in March) and the improvement he’s made the last two years, why wouldn’t the Yankees give Cabrera a chance to continue improving and possibly raise his ceiling? There is value – a lot of value – in his versatility, but moving around isn’t easy, and having a single set position may be what helps Cabrera find another level. Ian Happ said moving to left field full-time helped him find consistency. No longer did he have other positions clouding his mind.

Cabrera’s defense might be stretched a bit in left field. The Yankees could always replace him for defense in the late innings though, plus he’s looked so natural wherever the Yankees put him that it wouldn’t surprise me if he improved (quickly) out there. Cabrera did some good things in limited action in 2022. The next step is giving him an opportunity to build on it.

“I think Cabrera can be an everyday a lot of things,” Aaron Boone told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) last month. “I love the player. I love his makeup. I think he showed this year that whatever situation you put him in, he’s equipped to handle it. I think he’s a guy who I think we’re going to look up in 10-12 years and he’s had a really long, strong big league career. I think this year he proved he can do that in a lot of different positions.”

Hicks could be better than he was in 2022

Hicks probably wasn’t as bad as you remember last year (.330 OBP is fine) though he certainly wasn’t good, and there are a few reasons to think he can be better in 2023. First and foremost, health. Specifically his wrist. Hicks blew out his tendon sheath in May 2021 and it can take a time to fully recover from that surgery. Mark Teixeira had tendon sheath surgery in June 2013:

• Teixeira in 2013: .151/.270/.340 (59 wRC+) playing through injury
• Teixeira in 2014: .216/.313/.398 (102 wRC) in first year after surgery
• Teixeira in 2015: .255/.357/.548 (143 wRC+) in second year after surgery

Hicks hit .194/.294/.333 (76 wRC+) before the injury in 2021 and .216/.330/.313 (90 wRC+) in his first year post-surgery in 2022. Maybe he can return to his 2017-20 form (.247/.362/.457 and 123 wRC+) in 2023, when he’s another year removed from surgery? It can take a long time to recover from major wrist surgery, even after the doctors clear the player to go play.

“Last year was really difficult,” Teixeira told Tyler Kepner in July 2015. “... I’ve had knee surgery, I’ve had ankle surgery. You have little things here and there, shoulders and low back. You can play through all that. The wrist is the hardest thing, by far, I’ve ever had to go through.”

Second, MLB is doing away with extreme infield shifts and Hicks saw the shift in 92.6% of his plate appearances as a left-handed batter in 2022. It was the highest rate on the Yankees and the 11th highest rate in baseball overall. Look at his 2022 spray heat map as a lefty batter. Why wouldn’t you shift Hicks all the time?

Hicks went 0-for-3 with a ground out and two fly outs as a lefty when there was no shift last year. Seriously. He got shifted that much. With the shift Hicks had a .272 BABIP, a few ticks under the .279 league average for lefty batters. The average for lefties with no shift was a .298 BABIP. Are there 20-ish points of BABIP out there for Hicks in 2023? I dunno, but given his hitting tendencies and how often he gets shifted, it doesn’t seem too crazy to me.

And three, MLB is also implementing rules to promote stolen bases (bigger bases, two pickoff throws per plate appearance, etc.) and Hicks does steal bases. He went 10-for-13 (77%) last season and has had multiple double-digit steal seasons in his career. The new rules could get him to 15-20 steals and hey, every little bit counts. Hicks could definitely be worse than he was last year, but squint your eyes and you can see reasons to believe he’ll be better too.

Dumping Hicks isn’t worth it

A Hicks trade could take many forms and the end result would be the same: the Yankees would have to do something they don’t want to do to get rid of him. That could mean attaching prospects, eating money, taking back a bad contract, or some combination of the three. Trading Hicks and even part of his salary, and getting something of value in return, ain’t happening.

FanGraphs estimates the 2023 luxury tax payroll at $291.8M, and when you’re this far over the $233M threshold as well as the $263M threshold that pushes next year’s first round pick back 10 spots, what’s the point of a salary dump? Saving a few bucks in salary and luxury tax? Hicks' money isn’t standing in the way of other moves, and it’s not like there’s much left to spend on anyway.

Of course, Hicks is signed for another three years, and a salary dump would be as much about 2024 and 2025 as 2023. It stands to reason unloading Hicks with two years and $21M remaining next offseason would be easier than unloading him with three years and $31.5M this offseason though. Less years/money involved equals attaching lesser/fewer prospects to him in the trade.

And who knows, maybe Hicks can have a rebound season and rebuild some trade value (it’s not like his trade value could get any lower). Point is, it’s just money now. Hicks is not the difference between avoiding luxury tax altogether or keeping next year’s draft pick where it is. He represents a salary and luxury tax expense and nothing more. With a payroll this high, why bother saving a relatively small chunk of money when the Yankees will likely have to give up prospects to do it?

Might as well give Florial a shot, right?

At least in Spring Training. I don’t find this a particularly compelling reason to stand pat, but Florial has great tools and it’s now or never for him. He’s out of minor league options, so either he sticks on the MLB roster or he’s in another organization come Opening Day. You’d hate to give up on a young player with this much natural talent. Might as well see what Florial can do in camp. At minimum, he can push Cabrera and Hicks. A little internal competition never hurt anyone.

There’s always the trade deadline

Kicking the can down the road is always an option. Don’t like what’s available now? Then see how the first few weeks of the season go and reassess in July. It’s risky because early season games count too, but if the Yankees are on the postseason bubble come the trade deadline, it probably won’t be because of the left fielder. A lot will have to go wrong to be fighting for an expanded postseason spot come July.

Who will be available at the deadline? Hard to say. Harrison Bader wasn’t on anyone’s radar this time last year. Did anyone really think the Nationals would trade Juan Soto? There will be players available in July who are off-limits now. Always are and that’s the reason to wait. We know the currently available options are underwhelming. The players available at the deadline could be much more enticing, and really, the goal is having the best left fielder in place for the postseason, not April.

* * *

Like I said earlier, I think it would be a mistake to stick with the status quo in left field. A plan that involves betting on Hicks' health is unwise, plus there will be ways to get Cabrera at-bats with or without a new left fielder. Florial? Meh. I don’t think he’s enough of a reason to pass on a new left fielder. I see left field as a pretty significant weakness that should be addressed.

At the same time, it’s possible to disagree with a move or strategy while also understanding the reasoning behind it. We do it all the time. I thought the Yankees should have added a starter last offseason, they didn’t, and they had one of the best rotations in the game. Who’s to say sticking with Cabrera and Hicks won’t surprise in the same way? Is it really better to settle for, say, Kepler or Profar than giving the incumbents a shot, and seeing what pops up at the deadline?

3. Latest roster moves and hot stove rumors. The Red Sox finally realized they should keep their homegrown stars and signed Rafael Devers to an 11-year, $331M contract earlier this week. Well, at least Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are far away in the NL West. Two outta three ain't bad. (In all seriousness, it's a good and cool and rare thing when great players stay with one team and fans get to watch his entire career from start to finish. I look forward to hating Devers for the next 11 years.) Anyway, here are a few minor roster moves and hot stove nuggets.

Yankees sign Ortega

The Yankees have their Triple-A center fielder. They signed Rafael Ortega to a minor league deal earlier this week, according to the MiLB transactions log. Ortega, 31, spent the last two seasons with the Cubs. He was much more productive in 2021 than 2022 (here’s video):

• 2021: .291/.360/.463 (122 wRC+) with 11 HR and 12 SB in 330 PA
• 2022: .241/.331/.358 (96 wRC+) with 7 HR and 12 SB in 371 PA

Ortega is the fourth outfielder the Yankees have signed to a minor league deal this offseason, joining Michael Hermosillo, Billy McKinney, and Willie Calhoun. Barring a long-awaited breakout from Calhoun, I think Ortega is the best left field candidate of that group, and he’s a good depth pickup. Consider:

• A lefty hitter, Ortega managed a .242/.331/.367 (98 wRC+) line against righties in 2022. A guy who can be average on a heavy side of the platoon is solid depth.
• Ortega has an 18.6% strikeout rate and 7.7% swinging strike rate in over 1,100 big league plate appearances. He’s a lefty who gets the bat on the ball.
• He managed a 33.6% ground ball rate and a 44.1% pull rate the last two years. Lefties who pull the ball in the air tend to be rewarded in Yankee Stadium.
• Ortega draws walks (9.2% career) and can give you double-digit steals, and the numbers say he's at worst a tick below average in all three outfield spots.

That’s nice and all, but the Yankees should continue to seek an established (and above-average) big league left fielder. Ortega should be penciled in as Triple-A Scranton’s center fielder and the guy who comes up when there’s an injury. Going into the season with him as Plan A in left field wouldn’t be great. Nice non-roster signing though. A quality depth player, Ortega is.

Lee to be posted after 2023

Kiwoom Heroes center fielder and reigning Korea Baseball Organization MVP Jung-Hoo Lee will be posted for MLB teams next offseason, the Heroes announced earlier this week. “After some internal discussions, we agreed to respect the player's intent to play in Major League Baseball. We will provide whatever support necessary for the player,” the team said in a statement.

“The team has been giving me so much support since I was a rookie, and I was able to start dreaming about playing overseas because the team has helped me grow as a player," Lee said in a statement. "First and foremost, I will concentrate on the upcoming season. I will put aside personal ambitions and try to help the team win the Korean Series."

Lee, 24, slashed .349/.421/.575 (183 wRC+) with 23 homers and way more walks (10.5%) than strikeouts (5.1%) in 2022 (video). He was a +9.2 WAR player and is widely considered the best pure hitter in KBO (because he can do this). Lee was the first player in KBO history to jump into the league straight from high school, and he was named Rookie of the Year in 2017.

Lee is nicknamed “Grandson of the Wind” because his father, Jong-Beom Lee, was nicknamed “Son of the Wind” when he played. Lee the elder was a superstar in the 1990s and 2000s, and he still holds KBO’s single-season record with 84 stolen bases (in a 124-game season!). FanGraphs has an updated scouting report on Lee the younger:

Since arriving in the league at age 19, Lee has hit for elite rates of contact and more recently has hit for power. His early-career pop may have been masked by injury/recovery from shoulder surgery, but he clubbed 23 homers and about 60 extra-base hits in his 2022 MVP campaign … Lee wields one of the sweetest looking swings on the planet and is especially good at flattening his bat path to crush fastballs at the top of the zone. There are still a couple yellow flags here to go along with all the good stuff. Lee's groundball rate (nearly 60%) and performance against big velocity (per Synergy, he faced 109 pitches of 93 mph or greater and slashed .226/.273/.419 against them) indicate risk with MLB transition, even if it's just risk that he doesn't actualize power in games … (We have to) hedge against this risk even though Lee is a very exciting player.

A few years ago Kyle Glaser polled scouts and the consensus was KBO is somewhere between Double-A and Triple-A in talent and competition. KBO used to be very hitter friendly (the league average was .286/.353/.450 in 2018) but that isn’t the case now. The league average was .260/.333/.379 with an 18.7% strikeout rate in 2022. Obviously Lee was much better than that.

Few Korean hitters have successfully transitioned to MLB. Shin-Soo Choo, Hee-Seop Choi, and Ji-Man Choi are the best Korean-born hitters in MLB history and they all signed as amateurs, and came up through the minors. Jung-Ho Kang had success before off-the-field problems derailed him, but other KBO stars like Hyun-Soo Kim and Byung-Ho Park came over in the middle of their careers and flopped (Park was a 50-homer monster in KBO and a total dud with the Twins).

Ha-Seong Kim, Lee’s teammate with Kiwoom in 2019 and 2020, slashed .306/.392/.507 his last two years in KBO. He really struggled with the Padres in 2021 (70 wRC+) before having a league average season in 2022 (105 wRC+). That jump from KBO to MLB is awfully big, even for the most talented players. That doesn’t mean Lee, who’s been a much better KBO hitter than Kim, can’t make it. Just that there’s little history of doing it successfully.

A young lefty hitting center fielder with elite contact skills and power is pretty much exactly what the Yankees need, and Lee figures to be in demand when he’s posted next offseason. Will the Yankees have interest? I have no idea. There’s an entire season to play first. For now, I’m just putting Lee on your radar. He’s a big deal and I doubt this will be the last time we talk about him.

(The KBO posting system works the same way as the posting system with Japan’s Nippon Pro Baseball. The player has 45 days to negotiate and sign with an MLB team, and the team that signs him pays his former KBO team a posting fee based on the size of the contract.)

Murakami interested in Yankees

Munetaka Murakami, the big beefy dinger man of the Yakult Swallows in Japan, recently said he has interest in playing for the Yankees. Murakami just signed a three-year extension with Yakult and will be posted after 2025. He will be 25 then and no longer subject to the international bonus pools, and able to sign a contract of any size.

“Ideally, I’d like to play for a West Coast team, but I’m also interested in the New York Yankees,” Murakami said during an interview earlier this week (per Yakyu Cosmopolitan).

Not the most convincing statement of interest, I’d say. Sounds to me like “I want to play on the West Coast, but I hear the Yankees pay well, so I’m willing to sign with them too.” Whatever. I’ll take it. Murakami hit .318/.458/.711 (241 wRC+) with 56 homers last season*. By all accounts he is the best player in the world outside MLB.

* Compare Murakami’s line to what Lee did in a league with what is considered a lower talent level. Glaser’s scouts put NPB somewhere between Triple-A and MLB in terms of talent and competition.

Three years is an eternity in baseball – three years ago Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich were perennial MVP candidates – and who knows what the Yankees will need come 2026, and how Murakami’s career will unfold. Hopefully things come together and he’s wearing pinstripes in a few years. Until then, I will dream of Murakami hitting third between Anthony Volpe and Aaron Judge.

Blue Jays claim Fernández

The Junior Fernández situation was resolved on Day 15 of his seven-day DFA period. Dang. I was curious to see how long the Yankees could drag this out. Maybe they were hoping everyone would forget about it and not notice Fernández never went through waivers when they brought him to Spring Training as a non-roster player in a few weeks.

Anyway, the Blue Jays claimed Fernández on waivers Thursday. They passed on him the first time he was on waivers, we know that because he made it to the Yankees, but they decided to claim him this time around. Just eyeballing their bullpen, I’m not sure he’s long for Toronto’s roster. Fernandez might find himself on waivers again soon. So long, Junior. I look forward to his Yankeeography.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Isaac asks: I know this won't ever happen, but how insane would it be to throw Gleyber out in LF? They already use him as the 4th outfielder in extreme shifts (RIP), and a move would allow DJLM to play 2nd with Donaldson at 3rd, solidifying the defense.

On a scale of Brendan Ryan at first base to Lyle Overbay in right field, this idea is a Vernon Wells at third base. I think you can put Gleyber Torres in left field in an emergency or as part of a funky (and now outlawed) shift, but not full-time. He played left and right as part of a four-man outfield a couple times last season and made a few routine plays, but he also did this (video):

Torres is sneaky slow (40th percentile sprint speed) and he looked comfortable at second base last season after all the shortstop hoopla in 2020 and 2021. Asking him to now shift to left field, even on a part-time basis, feels like a little too much. Just leave Gleyber at second and let him play a familiar position. I think putting Torres in left is a pretty low upside move.

Ben asks: I loved the catch probability vs average breakdown you did for Profar, and it got me wondering about Aaron Judge's profile in RF and CF, and whether it was at all illustrative of what he'd be like in LF at Yankee Stadium. It might be cool to see for other players as well, though infield shifts seem to complicate things?

Judge has played 790.2 innings in center field and 1,403.2 innings in right field the last two years, which isn’t the biggest sample when it comes to defensive stats, but it’s what we have. Here are Judge’s actual catch success rates vs. his estimated catch success rates at the two positions in the same ranges I used in the Jurickson Profar post:

That 50% success rate in the 20-40% range in center? It’s literally two plays. Judge went 1-for-2 on those. He went 2-for-6 in the 40-60% range and 8-for-10 in the 60-80% range. There’s just not enough information here to draw any meaningful conclusions about Judge’s ability in center, and how it would translate to left. He looks good in center to me, but what do I know?

For infielders, defense success rate covers all plays (grounders, pop ups, etc.) and is calculated using the player’s position on the field – literally where he’s standing – so a shortstop playing shallow right in the shift isn’t dinged for the weak grounder that gets through the vacated shortstop hole. I was curious to see Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Gleyber Torres, the two middle infielders, so here are the 2022 numbers:

The numbers match what my eyes tell me. Kiner-Falefa will make some really difficult plays, then he’ll boot an easy grounder or short hop a routine throw. Torres makes few spectacular plays at second base but he makes all the plays he’s supposed to make. If only the Yankees could combine them into one Gold Glove caliber Voltron middle infielder.

Jeremy asks: Would love to see a Yankees column added (PLEASE!) on the wRC+ by position. That would be very interesting!!!

In last week’s mailbag I broke down the league-wide offensive performance by position in 2022. Here’s how the Yankees fared by position:

The Yankees were close to the league average in left field! That’s despite Joey Gallo’s awfulness because Aaron Hicks was decent when he played left (103 wRC+), Andrew Benintendi helped out for a month, and Oswaldo Cabrera made noise in September. Thanks to Aaron Judge, the Yankees ranked top two in two of the three outfield spots. Some other numbers:

• NYY CF other than Judge: .202/.302/.258 (~69 wRC+) in 351 PA
• NYY RF other than Judge: .242/.316/.464 (~121 wRC+) in 437 PA

The non-Judge right fielders were really good! Matt Carpenter (.316/.422/.816 and 244 wRC+) and Giancarlo Stanton (.258/.317/.531 and 137 wRC+) get the credit there. They accounted for nearly half those 437 plate appearances. The non-Judge center fielders were dreadful. I mean, woof. Shouldn’t be hard for Harrison Bader to massively improve on those numbers this year.

Find a new left fielder and replace Isiah Kiner-Falefa with the kids, and the Yankees will have a chance to be at least average offensively (relative to the positional standard) at every position. It’s not exactly Nick Swisher and his .249/.371/.498 (125 wRC+) line hitting eighth in 2009, but it’s better than most.

Mark asks: Is it fair to say that Rortvedt was the best part of the IKF/Donaldson trade?  The others actively hurt the Yankees chances of winning so Rortvedt’s absence was actually better.

I don’t think that’s fair. Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa certainly underwhelmed last year and were outright bad at times, but they weren’t negative value players. Baseball Prospectus evaluated their seasons the harshest and had Donaldson at +1.0 WARP and Kiner-Falefa at +1.1 WARP. That’s bad for everyday players, but not so bad that a guy who was hurt and didn’t take the field in an MLB game was the better acquisition.

In the long run Ben Rortvedt might be the best player in the trade in a “he racked up +5 WAR in four years as a backup catcher thanks to his framing” way, but I don’t think Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa were so bad last year that we can say Rortvedt is the best part of that trade after one season. The trade didn’t have anywhere close to the desired impact. Calling the guy who didn’t play an MLB inning the best part is a stretch to me though.

Kai asks: Given Stanton is signed through 2027 and entrenched as DH (plus big money contracts for Rodon and Cole, plus probably more Judge DH at-bats down the road…), is there any chance at all the Yankees actually sign Ohtani? The chances seem depressingly slim. What would need to happen between now and next offseason?

Is there a chance the Yankees sign Shohei Ohtani next offseason? Yes, definitely. I think those chances are extremely slim though. Ohtani passed on the Yankees once and that’s putting it kindly. He rejected them without ever listening to their pitch. That was a long time ago now and people change their minds, but the Yankees prioritizing the here and now over making sure there’s payroll space for Ohtani down the line is fine with me.

What would need to happen between now and next offseason for the Yankees to sign Ohtani? Assuming Hal Steinbrenner won’t approve a $350M+ payroll, then probably a Giancarlo Stanton trade to open up the DH spot and clear a bunch of money. I’m not sure that’s doable. Stanton has a full no-trade clause and has given zero indication he wants to leave New York, and even then how could you expect to unload that entire contract?

The Dodgers are trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold this year to reset their tax rates, and Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are their only long-term contracts. They seem perfectly positioned to pursue Ohtani next offseason. I assume the Giants and Mets will make a run at him too. I think the Yankees spent the last few years plotting out their roster under the assumption they have little chance to sign Ohtani after he rejected them in 2018. That’s not unreasonable.

Brian asks: I vaguely recall seeing that the Yankees are not bringing Maybin and Beltran back, is that correct? If so, have there been any reports on adding announcers (aside from Andrew Marchand's click bait-y tweet). Could Jeff Nelson get more games, I thought he was excellent.

There have been no updates on the YES Network roster in weeks. Last we heard John Flaherty and Paul O’Neill needed new contracts (YES also wants O’Neill back in the booth rather than in his basement), and that Jeff Nelson could get more games. No word on whether Carlos Beltrán or Cameron Maybin will return either. Last year YES announced the Beltrán and Maybin hires in late January, so we’re probably still a few weeks away from hearing anything.

(Andrew Marchand just reported Michael Kay might retire from his radio show when his contract expires later this year, but he has no plans to give up his job as television voice of the Yankees.)

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)