December 20th, 2022: Benintendi, Kiner-Falefa, Rodon, Minor League Signings

Remember the guy who caught Aaron Judge’s 62nd home run ball and turned down $3M so he could sell it at auction? Well, the auction was this past weekend, and the winning bid was $1.5M. Bit of a miscalculation there, my guy. Then again, he has $1.5M (minus fees) and I don’t, so who am I to talk? In November, Judge jokingly told Bryan Hoch, “I haven't signed my free agent deal yet, so I think that's a little out of my price range,” when asked whether he’d buy the ball. Maybe he bought it now that he has $360M coming to him? Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Latest hot stove news. There were a few non-Yankees signings over the weekend that are relevant to the Yankees. Let’s talk about them and some other hot stove goings-on.

Benintendi signs with White Sox

So much for an Andrew Benintendi reunion. He agreed to a five-year, $75M deal with the White Sox late last week. Three things about this. One, it’s the largest contract in White Sox history! I’m not joking. The previous record was Yasmani Grandal’s $73M deal. The record before that was Jose Abreu’s initial $68M deal. That is incredibly pathetic, White Sox. Good grief.

(In his newsletter, Craig Calcaterra noted five years and $75M is the same contract the Tigers gave Magglio Ordonez in Feb. 2005. 17 years later the same terms are the largest contract ever given out by a team in literally Chicago. As much as I complain about Hal Steinbrenner, it could be a lot worse. We could be stuck with Jerry Reinsdorf.)

Two, similar to Jameson Taillon’s deal with the Cubs, I am totally cool with passing on Benintendi at that price. He’s a good player, not a great player, and long-term deals for merely good players are the ones that get you into trouble (think Jason Heyward, Eric Hosmer, etc.). Here are two good but not great outfielders and their two seasons immediately prior to signing long-term contracts:

The Mystery Outfielder is 2017-18 Aaron Hicks, before he signed his contract in Feb. 2019. The difference in age is a mirage too. Season age is the player’s age on June 30th. Benintendi has a July 6th birthday. Had he been born a week earlier, he would have just completed his age 27-28 seasons, not his age 26-27 seasons. So yeah, don’t give long-term deals to non-elite players.

And three, now the Yankees have to look elsewhere for a left fielder (obviously). I’m comfortable saying they need – not want – a lefty hitter, which limits their market a tad. Also, a reliably good hitter would be nice. Carlos Rodon rules, but the Yankees still look like a team at risk of pitching very well in October, only for the offense to come up empty. They need a bat and a good one.

No outfielders projected for even +2 WAR remain in free agency. The Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Padres, and Rangers stand out as clubs that need an outfielder, so there figures to be a bidding war for any decent trade candidate. I rank my preferred left field targets like so:

1. Bryan Reynolds
2. Daulton Varsho
(gap)
3. Michael Conforto
4. Alek Thomas
5. Jake McCarthy
(gap)
6. David Peralta
7. Max Kepler
8. Jurickson Profar

Reynolds and Varsho are 1A and 1B for me and the ideal targets. They provide everything the Yankees need, including multiple years of affordable control. The asking prices figure to be very high though, so high that passing on them and moving on to the next tier is defensible. Pittsburgh is said to be seeking a Juan Soto-like return for Reynolds. That’s just not gonna happen.

Question mark guys make up the second tier. Conforto is coming off shoulder surgery and did not play this season. McCarthy has a limited track record in the big leagues. Thomas had a disappointing four-month MLB debut in 2022. These three all have a chance to be really, really good. Will they be really, really good in 2023? I have no idea. I also had post-shoulder surgery Michael Brantley in this tier before he re-signed with the Astros.

The third tier is the “okay fine, but I’m gonna complain the whole time” tier. Those are the guys you get when you whiff on everyone else and need someone to hold things down until you can find a better player at the trade deadline. They’ll do the job but leave you wanting more. I have Profar at the bottom because he figures to get a multi-year contract. Peralta’s a one-year deal guy and Kepler has one year plus a club option remaining on his affordable contract.

I don’t think the Yankees signed Rodon and pushed payroll up close to $300M just to cheap out in left field. I hope they don’t plan to do that, anyway. If the asking prices for Reynolds and Varsho are just too high, fine. In that case I’d rather spend money and roll the dice on Conforto than trade pieces for a known mediocrity like Kepler. I suspect the Yankees will wind up with a left fielder no one sees coming. They pull things out of nowhere from time to time.

(I’ve had Ian Happ on my list of players to write about for weeks but he’s not worth it at this point. I don’t think the Cubs gave Taillon, Cody Bellinger, and Dansby Swanson all that money just to turn around and trade their homegrown All-Star outfielder, even if he is only a year away from free agency. I bet they extend Happ before Opening Day. He’d be a very nice fit for the Yankees though, even if only for the one year.)

Swanson signs with Cubs

The Yankees were never gonna sign one of the top free agent shortstops and now it’s official. Swanson is heading to the Cubs on a seven-year, $177M contract. He was unable to get a super long contract through his age 40 season like Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Trea Turner. Tough break. Dansby will have to find a way to put bread on the table with $177M.

The Yankees have put all their eggs in the Oswald Peraza/Anthony Volpe basket and need at least one of them to turn into an All-Star caliber shortstop (no pressure, guys). Not until Bo Bichette after 2025 will another high-end in-his prime shortstop become a free agent, and the Blue Jays might extend him before he hits the market (Bichette also might not be a shortstop by then). These shortstops have changed teams within the last two years:

Javy Baez (twice)
Xander Bogaerts
Carlos Correa (twice)
Francisco Lindor
Marcus Semien (twice)
Trevor Story
Dansby Swanson
Trea Turner (twice)

None of ‘em are Yankees. There are some cautionary tales there (Baez, specifically) but that’s a lot of really good shortstops who could’ve been Yankees that aren’t Yankees. If Peraza and Volpe don’t work out, there won’t be a path to paper over the shortstop hole with money. It’s going to be a few years before we see a free agent shortstop class like these last two. I think the kids will be good, Volpe in particular, but until they are good, you never really know.

Anyway, now that the big four free agent shortstops signed, it’s time for the Yankees to call around and see what shortstop-needy teams will give up for Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The best the free agent market has to offer is Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias, and I gotta think there’s at least one team out there that prefers Kiner-Falefa to those two. Just digging through depth charts, here are a few possible trade partners and their in-house shortstop options:

• Angels: David Fletcher and Gio Urshela
• Braves: Orlando Arcia and Vaughn Grissom
• Diamondbacks: Nick Ahmed (post-shoulder surgery) and Geraldo Perdomo
• Dodgers: Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor
• Twins: Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis (post-ACL surgery)

I thought about listing the Red Sox because their top in-house shortstop candidates are their center fielder (Enrique Hernandez) and their second baseman (Trevor Story), but nah. You always have to bet against a remotely significant Yankees-Red Sox trade. The Adam Ottavino trade (and the Stephen Drew/Kelly Johnson trade) was an outlier.

That’s the list though. Those are the teams that most need a shortstop. Andrus and Iglesias are out there, and Miguel Rojas and Amed Rosario are the other notable trade candidates (Rosario as the token “Guardian who is a year away from free agency”). I don’t expect the Yankees to get anything significant for Kiner-Falefa, but with the free agent market being what it is now, you have to at least call around and see. Maybe a team (Twins after losing Correa?) is desperate.

Miscellany

Over the weekend there were several downright reasonable free agent signings: Brantley back to the Astros (one year and $12M plus incentives), J.D. Martinez to the Dodgers (one year and $10M), and Justin Turner to the Red Sox (one year and $15M with a player option). Only three of the top 25 and 11 of the top 50 free agents by projected 2023 WAR remain unsigned, and now that all the top free agents are off the board, it looks like we’re entering the bargain phase of the offseason. The top five unsigned free agents and their projected 2023 WAR:

1. Jean Segura: +2.6 WAR
2. Nathan Eovaldi: +2.3 WAR
3. Elvis Andrus: +1.9 WAR
4. Corey Kluber: +1.8 WAR
5. Michael Conforto: +1.6 WAR

Conforto is an obvious fit in left field. Segura and Andrus only fit if the Yankees trade an infielder and the pitchers only fit if the Yankees trade a starter (i.e. Frankie Montas). A little further down the leaderboard there’s corners guy Brian Anderson (+1.4 WAR), platoon left fielder David Peralta (+0.9 WAR), and various relievers. The Yankees don’t have any glaring needs other than left field, but a few years ago they jumped on Chris Carter despite not having an obvious place to play him because he was cheap and they were being opportunistic. Maybe they’ll do something similar in the coming weeks (not that the Carter signing paid off)… No surprise here: Jon Heyman says the Yankees are struggling to find trade partners for Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks. Hard to believe teams aren’t lining up to get those two. Hicks is a goner before he picks up 10-and-5 no-trade protection in August. I think he’ll be gone before Opening Day. The Yankees are probably stuck with Donaldson and I expect him to be at third base when the season begins. Whether he finishes the season there is another story. But yeah, not exactly a shock Donaldson and Hicks aren’t in demand. The Yankees will have to attach a sweetener(s) to move either one … And finally, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told Joon Lee they have “limitations” for a Rafael Devers extension, and the two sides are said to be “galaxies apart.” Lee says Devers and his representatives expect him to become a free agent as scheduled next offseason. Good good. Follow Mookie and Xander west young man.

2. More thoughts on Rodon. It’s not official yet, but Carlos Rodon is joining the Yankees on a six-year contract worth $162M. It is the tenth largest contract for a pitcher by total value and the 12th largest by average annual value (13th if you count Shohei Ohtani’s $30M salary in 2023). If you care about such things, here’s what ZiPS says about the Rodon contract:

ZiPS values Rodon at $150M across those six years. As I mentioned in last week’s mailbag, the Yankees are at a place on the win curve where every win added greatly improves their chances of an AL East title and Wild Card Series bye, so they should be willing to pay an inflated price for wins. The extra $2M per year relative to ZiPS amounts to paying more for those additional wins.

Now that I’ve had a few days to mull everything over, here are a few more thoughts on the Rodon signing and his big picture impact on the Yankees.

A Pair of Aces

The Yankees have not had two +4 WAR pitchers in a season since A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia in 2009. Rodon and Gerrit Cole give them a chance to end that made-up drought next year, and also Nestor Cortes too. Cortes was a +4.2 WAR pitcher in 2022, you know. Point is, the Yankees now have two legitimate ace-caliber starters.

2022 fastball whiff rate (min. 1,000 thrown)
1. Gerrit Cole: 28.9%
2. Carlos Rodon: 27.9%
3. Alek Manoah: 26.1%
4. Robbie Ray: 25.9%
5. Aaron Nola: 24.2%
(MLB average: 21.5%)

2022 slider whiff rate (min. 500 thrown)
1. Gerrit Cole: 44.7%
2. Dylan Cease: 43.5%
3. Robbie Ray: 39.4%
4. Shane Bieber: 39.4%
5. Carlos Rodon: 39.0%
(MLB average: 34.1%)

Missing bats is the name of the game. Don’t allow the ball to be put in play and nothing bad can happen. Cole and especially the two-pitch Rodon pitch like dominant relievers, only as starters. There’s a long way to go between now and October, but how can you not get excited about Cole and Rodon making four starts in a best-of-seven?

As much as I love Nestor and Luis Severino, the rotation looks so much better with them in the No. 3 and 4 spots (in either order) than the No. 2 and 3 spots. And maybe Frankie Montas is just another Sonny Gray, but him as the No. 5 starter? Not many teams have a No. 5 starter with that kinda ability. Montas could be the Yankees’ third best starter in 2023 and it wouldn’t shock me.

The Yankees need to improve their offense between now and Opening Day, I believe that’s a must, but there’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength, and Rodon is a significant addition to an already strong rotation. He and Cole figure to be the Yankees’ best 1-2 punch since when, Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda in 2012? Kuroda ruled. I miss that guy. The case can be made the Yankees just added the best lefty pitcher in baseball to one of the best righties. How awesome.

"Nothing official yet, of course," Aaron Boone told David Adler about Rodon last week. "But hopefully we can get it to the finish line. And obviously we're talking about a really, really talented guy that's really started putting it together here these last couple of years. Hopefully he can have a big impact on us."

Rodon’s velocity

In my look at Rodon as a free agent target, I noted he’s added significant velocity in recent years thanks to good health and also improved mechanics. A few years ago he began training at a new facility and, long story short, they got him to use his lower half more efficiently. Rodon is pushing off his back leg more and now he sits around 96 mph and touches 100 mph regularly.

There’s more to Rodon’s velocity. As Lucas Apostoleris notes, Rodon gains velocity within his starts. He throws harder the deeper he goes into the game. Here’s his average fastball velocity by inning in 2022:

There’s not a ton of data beyond the sixth inning (Rodon completed seven innings six times, eight innings twice, and nine innings once in 2022) but the trend is clear. Rodon adds velocity within games. By times through the order, he averaged 94.7 mph the first time through, 95.7 mph the second time, and 96.4 mph the third time. Rodon’s +1 mph increase from the first time to the second time was the largest in baseball (he also led in 2021). How about that?

Thanks in part to that added velocity within games, Rodon’s performance has held fairly steady each time through the batting order. His 2021-22 numbers:

• 1st time: .178/.239/.310 (.243 wOBA and 58 OPS+) and 5.4 K/BB
• 2nd time: .206/.266/.313 (.257 wOBA and 61 OPS+) and 4.8 K/BB
• 3rd time: .221/.289/.297 (.262 wOBA and 55 OPS+) and 3.8 K/BB

There is a wOBA increase and a K/BB decrease each time though, but relative to the league average (which is what OPS+ tells us), Rodon is roughly 40% better than the average starter each time through the lineup. There will be days a fresh reliever is a better option than Rodon going through the lineup a third time, but he’s not an automatic pull in those situations either.

It’s sort of remarkable Rodon remains so effective each time through the order because he is just a two-pitch pitcher. It’s fastballs and sliders more than 90% of the time. It speaks to the quality of his fastball and slider, and also his execution. These days lots of guys have one or two high-quality pitches, but not everyone executes at a high level consistently. Rodon does.

"I think he's become one of the game's really great pitchers, and he's shown the last couple of years he's a top of the rotation guy,” Boone told Adler. “Hopefully he continues to realize that potential. I think over the last couple of years, he's probably learned a lot about himself and his mechanics. I know he's made some mechanical changes that have really unlocked him and unleashed him and turned him into the pitcher we've seen the last couple of years."

German’s role

This is without a doubt one of those “it’ll work itself out” situations, but I wonder what happens with Domingo German now. He’s been bumped out of the rotation and he’s out of minor league options, so there’s no sending him to Triple-A. The Yankees can do one of three things:

• See what happens in Spring Training, then either put German in the rotation (to cover for an injury) or in the bullpen (if no one gets hurt).
• Trade him and potentially capitalize on a free agent market that is running short on decent rotation options. Maybe a team gets desperate.
• Take their chances and put German on waivers. (This won’t happen. German is cheap and serviceable and would get claimed quickly.)

If the Yankees don’t trade German, they’ll stretch him out in Spring Training because it’s easier to go from starter to reliever than reliever to starter (they did this with Adam Warren every spring). Cortes will be away at the World Baseball Classic, so Grapefruit League starts will be available, not that that’s ever a problem. There are always innings available in Spring Training.

German turned 30 in August and he has two years of control remaining (projected $2.6M salary in 2023), so this isn’t some young kid who is a long-term piece. I know he pitched well this past season, but the track record is spotty, and he’s spent time on the injured list with shoulder trouble every year since 2018. German is what he is. He’s a good depth arm for a contender.

Three years ago the Dodgers traded 2.5 years of swingman Ross Stripling for two prospects (first baseman/left fielder Ryan Noda and righty Kendall Williams) who were in the 15-25 range on Blue Jays top 30 prospects lists at the time. Neither is a top prospect now (Noda got picked by the Athletics in the Rule 5 Draft and MLB.com does not have Williams among their top 30 Dodgers prospects). Could the Yankees get something similar for two years of German in this thinned out free agent pitching market? Yeah, maybe.

But is it even worth it? There’s something to be said for trusting your young pitchers to be rotation depth (Jhony Brito, Clarke Schmidt, etc.) and trading a non-core player to replenish the farm system, but I think the Yankees would be better off keeping German than trading him for a Stripling package. When you’re trying to win a title, MLB pitching depth is important. A new No. 18 and No. 24 prospect or whatever the package ends up being isn’t.

If the Yankees trade German, fine, I won’t lose any sleep over it. I’m not the guy’s biggest fan but I recognize he has value as a swingman/fill-in starter for a Yankees team trying to win an AL East title and the World Series. German is in a tough place because he doesn’t have a defined role, but for the Yankees, he’s good depth, and they don’t have to rush into a decision. Like I said, this feels like the epitome of an “it’ll work itself out” situation.

“That’s what Spring Training is for,” Boone told Greg Joyce about the team’s rotation depth last week. “Those things have a way of shaking themselves out. Inevitably you’re probably going to have some attrition – hopefully not a lot – at different points of the season. Hopefully as the season unfolds and you’re hopefully more whole, guys protect one another. But we’ll see how it shakes out.”

40-man roster situation

It’s a little unusual the Aaron Judge and Tommy Kahnle signings are not yet official (not so much Rodon because he agreed to terms less than a week ago). I’m not worried the deals are going to fall apart or anything, but it is a bit weird they’re not official yet. Kahnle did an interview with the YES Network last week. That’s pretty close to official, no?

“I’m very excited. Obviously I got drafted by the Yankees, and then I got traded back after being in the big leagues after a few years, and now a third time is pretty special that they still value me in that sense.” Kahnle told YES. “I’ve always had the dynamic of always being a Yankee. I feel like I’ve always been that in my bones, I guess … Easily more than half of my professional career has been spent in a New York Yankee uniform. So I’m pretty ecstatic to come back and try to help the team. Can’t wait.”

Judge and Rodon will get full blown press conferences and I suppose they could do a joint press conference like Burnett and Sabathia back in the day, but if the Yankees are planning to name Judge captain, then I would think he’ll have his own day. Either way, are the Yankees going to drag everyone to Yankee Stadium between Christmas and New Years next week? I guess they could, but if these deals don’t become official this week, we may be waiting until January.

The Yankees have one open 40-man roster spot and need to open two more to accommodate Judge, Kahnle, and Rodon whenever their signings become official. The path of least resistance is designating Albert Abreu and Junior Fernandez for assignment. The Yankees got both of them on waivers this year, they’re both out of minor league options, and they’re both kinda far down the bullpen depth chart. The bullpen if the season started today (40-man roster guys only):

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Wandy Peralta
• Middle: RHP Tommy Kahnle, LHP Lucas Luetge, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Lou Trivino
• Long: RHP Domingo German
• Depth: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Jimmy Cordero, RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Clarke Schmidt, RHP Greg Weissert
• Injured: RHP Scott Effross, RHP Mike King (?)

King is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training and, if he’s ready for Opening Day, that could push Marinaccio to Triple-A or Luetge out of the organization. And I didn’t even mention the 40-man roster kids who will open the season in Triple-A and thus be bullpen depth by default (Jhony Brito, Deivi Garcia, Matt Krook, Randy Vasquez). Point is, the Yankees have arms, so Abreu and Fernandez are definitely on the 40-man roster chopping block.

(I still haven’t gotten confirmation on whether Deivi qualifies for a fourth option. If he does and the Yankees can send him to Triple-A next year, they’ll keep him and try to salvage him. If he doesn’t, then he’s near the front of the line for 40-man roster cuts.)

It’s possible the Yankees are holding off on making these signings official until they clear 40-man space in a way they prefer (Aaron Hicks trade?), but I’m not sure whether that’s a real thing that happens or just something fans think happens. Rodon’s got a $5M signing bonus coming to him. Doesn’t he want to sign as soon as possible and get his $5M? I would. Well, whatever. At some point these signings will be made official and the corresponding 40-man roster moves will be made. When? I don’t know, but eventually.

Future payroll

There were indications the Yankees were operating on a three-year cycle with the luxury tax. They reset their tax rates in 2018 and 2021, and the terms of Josh Donaldson’s and Anthony Rizzo’s contracts last offseason suggested they were preparing to reset again in 2024. That’s out the window now. It looks like it’ll be a while until the Yankees can duck under the threshold.

Here’s what the Yankees have on the books the next few years. These are luxury tax hits, not actual salaries, and guaranteed contracts only:

• 2024: $172.75M for eight players (Cole, Hicks, Judge, Kahnle, Rizzo, Rodon, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton)
• 2025: $150M for six players (Cole, Hicks, Judge, LeMahieu, Rodon, Stanton)
• 2026: $140M for five players (Cole, Judge, LeMahieu, Rodon, Stanton)
• 2027: $125M for four players (Cole, Judge, Rodon, Stanton)
• 2028: $103M for three players (Cole, Judge, Rodon)
• 2029-31: $40M for one player (Judge)

It’s a lot of money for not a lot of players, though at least these deals are staggered a bit. Rizzo comes off after 2024, then Hicks after 2025 (if he isn’t traded first), LeMahieu after 2026, Stanton after 2027, etc. There will be some money coming off the books every offseason, creating a little flexibility each winter. It’s not a coincidence. Teams (smart teams, anyway) plan out their future payrolls this way.

The luxury tax threshold rises to $237M in 2024, leaving the Yankees a little more than $64M to fill out the roster around those eight players. It’s really less than that because of the pre-arbitration bonus pool and benefits package, which count against the luxury tax payroll and each team pays. It’s more like $48M for the other 16 roster spots. Assuming Hicks is traded before then, and it’s still $58M or so for 17 roster spots. So yeah, no luxury tax reset in 2024.

The threshold rises to $241M in 2025 and, assuming Hicks is traded, it’ll leave the Yankees about $75M to fill out the roster around those six players. That’s more doable. It would be even more doable in 2026, when the threshold rises to $244M. What about 2027? Who knows. That will be covered by the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. The luxury tax system could go away completely in 2027! It won’t, it’s more likely we have a hard salary cap, but who knows?

Based on what’s currently on the books, it appears 2025 is the absolute earliest the Yankees will be able to go under the luxury tax threshold and reset their tax rates, and it may not happen until 2026. Keep in mind that come 2025 and 2026, the guys currently under contract will be well into their 30s and likely diminished, so we’re not talking about adding complementary players around them. Whatever money is left over may have to go to pretty good players to remain in contention.

The Judge re-signing and Rodon signing – necessary moves to remain in the World Series mix – blew up any chance at staying under the luxury tax threshold in the near future. It’s just not feasible without extreme cost cutting elsewhere, cost cutting that will hurt the Yankees’ chances at contention. To which I say: good. The Yankees have kept the restrictor plate on payroll too long. Would’ve been nice to do this 3-4 years ago, but better late than never.

The Future of the Farm System

Because Rodon rejected the qualifying offer, the Yankees will forfeit their second and fifth round 2023 draft picks to sign him, as well as $1M in international bonus money in 2024. Also, because they’ll be over the $263M third luxury tax threshold next year, their 2024 first round pick will move back 10 spots. They will also receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in 2024 rather than a much higher pick for losing a qualified free agent next offseason (Montas? Severino?). Two things are true:

• The Yankees are trying to win the World Series and sacrificing those future assets (for lack of a better term) is worth it to maximize the title odds in the short-term.
• Forfeiting two 2023 draft picks and some 2024 international bonus money, and moving the 2024 first rounder back, will harm the farm system down the road.

Dating back to the Jameson Taillon trade in Jan. 2021, the Yankees have traded away 29 (!) prospects, including 11 of my 2021 Preseason Top 30 Prospects. They did add a few prospects along the way (Clayton Beeter for Joey Gallo, Justin Lange for Luke Voit, etc.), but yeah, they’ve traded away a lot of prospects, and the system isn’t as deep as it once was because of it. (We can also blame the five-round draft in 2020.)

This means a few things. One, the Yankees really need the system’s best (Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe) to pan out, because they don’t have as much coming up behind them, and won’t have as much coming in the future. I mean, duh, every team needs its top prospects to work out, but the Yankees have a core that will age out in a few years, a bloated payroll, and fewer avenues to add amateur talent. Those kids flopping would be a disaster.

Two, the pitching development machine that turned unheralded mid-round draft picks into Ken Waldichuk (fifth round in 2019), Hayden Wesneski (sixth round in 2019), and Will Warren (eighth round in 2021) must continue pumping out quality arms, both to use in trades and to fill out the MLB roster. The Yankees have gotten really good at identifying and developing talented pitchers, and that will be the most straightforward way to keep the prospect pipeline flowing. Any bumps in the road (injuries, etc.) would make life difficult in a few years.

And three, the Yankees should trade for draft picks to replace the picks they’re forfeiting to sign Rodon and pushing back due to their luxury tax status! I wrote about this a few weeks ago and I write about it every year. The 14 Competitive Balance picks can be traded. The Yankees should go get one or two or three. It’s easier said than done (you have to give up something to get them and no one wants to trade their picks), but it can be done. The Yankees should do it.

I don’t want to make it sound like the Yankees are doing immeasurable damage to their farm system. Ultimately, we’re talking about forfeiting two non-first round picks, sacrificing $1M in international bonus money a year from now, and moving what is likely to be a late first round pick back 10 spots (plus worse compensation for qualified free agents). It hurts and it’s worth noting, and the Yankees will have to come up with ways to compensate, but it’s not the end of the world. It’s the cost of being a World Series contender.

3. Minor league signings. Non-roster signings are trickling in and the Yankees made a whole bunch of them in recent days. Last week I wrote about 1B Jake Bauers, RHP James Norwood, and RHP Art Warren. Here are the latest via MLB.com’s transactions log.

C Rodolfo Duran

Duran is a re-signing. The Yankees signed him as a minor league free agent last offseason and he hit .222/.266/.414 (81 wRC+) with nine homers in 53 Double-A games in 2022, first as Josh Breaux’s backup and then as Austin Wells’ backup. The soon-to-be 25-year-old had a little prospect shine with the Phillies a few years ago, though he hasn’t hit above Low-A.

Last week I mentioned the Yankees need a new third Triple-A catcher after Max McDowell signed with the Phillies and I suppose Duran could move up a level and be that guy. The catching depth chart to begin 2023 figures to look something like this:

• MLB: Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka
• Triple-A: Josh Breaux and Ben Rortvedt (and Mickey Gasper?)
• Double-A: Austin Wells and Anthony Seigler (and Rodolfo Duran?)
• High-A: Antonio Gomez and Carlos Narvaez (and Ben Rice?)
• Low-A: Agustin Ramirez and Alex Guerrero (and Omar Martinez?)

Breaux, Gomez, Seigler, and Wells are the prospects to know. Ramirez is an exit velocity darling who probably isn’t long for the position defensively. Gasper and Rice are organizational depth guys, though Gasper has only caught 29 games the last two years (57 at first base), so he’s much of a catcher. I still think the Yankees will sign another Triple-A catcher (Rob Brantly again?).

RHP Demarcus Evans

A non-roster guy who deserves our attention. At this time last year Evans, a 26-year-old who’d spent his entire career with the Rangers up to this point, was an interesting bullpen prospect thanks to a unique fastball. It’s so unique Brian Menendez (subs. req’d) dedicated an entire post to it in January. Here’s a snippet followed by a graph from Menendez’s post (video):

Evans can get away with sub-par fastball velocity [low-90s] because of three things: a 92nd percentile spin rate (yes, it still matters), a 12:14 spin direction (where 12:00 is perfectly vertical), and 98 percent spin efficiency (meaning that nearly all of the high rate of spin contributed to the pitches Magnus-based movement). In other words, Evans has achieved the holy trinity of the invisible fastball–at least in theory. With nearly a foot of vertical movement, he has the most in baseball by a pretty sizable margin:

Evans got into 29 games with the Rangers in 2020 and 2021 and struck out 27.6% of the batters he faced, but the other numbers were iffy: 4.75 ERA (4.66 FIP) with 11.9% walks and only 20.5% ground balls. In Triple-A this year Evans had a 3.82 ERA (4.76 FIP) with 30.1% strikeouts and 15.1% walks around an unknown injury that delayed his season debut until May 21st.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) said Evans’ fastball averaged 92-96 mph going into 2021 but his velocity has been down since suffering a lat injury last year. Statcast says his heater averaged 90.9 mph and topped out at 94.4 mph in Triple-A in 2022. Also, the secondary pitches (low-80s curveball and mid-80s cutter) are works in progress rather than reliable offerings.

“(Rangers pitching coaches) told me, ‘Why don’t you work on something with separation from your fastball and curveball?’” Evans told David Laurila about his cutter in Aug. 2021. “My fastball can be like 23 (inches of vertical movement) and my curveball be like negative-one or two. My cutter can be right in the middle, so the hitters can’t always just look in those two spots. The idea was ‘harder breaking ball’ more than anything. It was also something where I wouldn’t have to think about it too much. I could just throw it like my fastball.”

Not that long ago Evans looked like a big league bullpen option and potentially a really good one. It’s an upside play by the Yankees. See whether the fastball velocity comes back as Evans gets further away from the lat injury, see whether he can improve the cutter (a pitch the Yankees have had success teaching), maybe teach him the whirly, etc. If it works, the Yankees have a possible dude on their hands. If not, who cares. It’s a non-roster deal. This signing gets a thumbs up.

OF Michael Hermosillo

The Yankees are thin on upper level outfield depth. Estevan Florial is out of options, so he’ll likely be on the MLB roster or out of the organization on Opening Day, and Jasson Dominguez and Everson Pereira have only barely gotten their feet wet in Double-A. Elijah Dunham figures to be the only actual prospect in Triple-A Scranton’s outfield to begin the season.

So, the Yankees signed Hermosillo, who couldn’t crack a pretty weak Cubs lineup the last two years because he kept getting hurt. Injuries (forearm, quad, hernia) and the pandemic have limited him to 699 plate appearances total, at all levels, since 2018. Hermosillo, 28 next month, is a .167/.268/.283 (55 wRC+) hitter with a 33.1% strikeout rate in 103 career big league games.

A good 2018 season in Triple-A with the Angels (.267/.357/.480 and 117 wRC+) put Hermosillo on the prospect map, but he hasn’t built on it. Even then, he was billed as a fourth outfield type who is on the light side of the platoon as a righty hitter. The Yankees need a left fielder but I don’t think Hermosillo is in that mix. He’s a Ryan LaMarre replacement more than a legit big league roster candidate (LaMarre spent 2021-22 with the RailRiders and got into a few MLB games with the Yankees).

RHP Zac Houston

If you can’t beat them, sign him. Houston, 28, missed just about the entire 2021 season with a shoulder issue and, in the Tigers’ system this past season, he threw 52.2 relief innings split between Double-A and Triple-A. There were a lot of big numbers: 5.47 ERA (5.06 FIP), 35.3% strikeouts, and 16.1% walks. He’s a career reliever and a pretty generic “95 and a slider” type.

“(My breaking ball is) kind of a slurve, depending on the day. I’ve got good extension on my fastball and it gets on hitters pretty well,” Houston told Laurila in 2018. “I’ve had people say I almost jump towards the hitter. Everybody who watches me says my delivery is a little different. I guess there are just a lot of moving parts.”

Here’s some older video so you can see all the moving parts in Houston’s delivery. His strikeout rate has always been sky high (career 35.2% in the minors), so even though the scouting report is generic, I’m guessing there are underlying pitch shape/trait things going on that the Yankees like and want. Not much more to say about Houston than that.

LHP Nick Ramirez

Ramirez, now 33, spent 2014-16 (his age 24-26 seasons) as a Double-A first baseman with the Brewers, during which he hit .229/.323/.402 in just under 1,400 plate appearances. That wasn’t working, so the Brewers put him on the mound, and he eventually reached the big leagues with the Tigers in 2019. His MLB career: 4.55 ERA (4.60 FIP) with 20.4% strikeouts, 9.5% walks, and 46.1% ground balls in 110.2 innings. Ramirez spent 2022 in Triple-A with the Mariners.

The Yankees have a thing for sinkers and changeups and Ramirez is a sinker and changeup pitcher, though he doesn’t offer the same velocity as, say, Wandy Peralta. The fastball sits around 90 mph, the changeup around 80 mph. The changeup is his moneymaker with a whiff rate around 30%. Ramirez also mixes in a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider. Here’s video.

None of the surface numbers pop but Ramirez has limited hard contact in his brief big league career. His average exit velocity (86.8 mph) and barrel rate (6.2%) allowed are both better than league average (88.6% and 7.5%) and on par with guys like Dylan Cease (86.8 mph and 6.2%) and Julio Urias (86.7 mph and 6.7%). Starter vs. reliever and all that, but the numbers are good. Ramirez limits hard contact. There’s something to work with here.

LHP Lisandro Santos

Another non-roster guy who deserves our attention. Santos, 24, had been with the Braves up to this point and he’s never appeared on a prospect list despite being a lefty with mid-to-upper-90s gas. Tess Taruskin got eyes on him in May (video):

His fastball still sits in the mid-90s and touches 96 mph, as has been the case for the past several years. He pairs it with a high-80s slider with occasional depth that he throws from a consistent arm slot. Much of his effectiveness comes from his ability to hide the ball. Santos sets up on the far first-base side of the rubber from an exaggeratedly closed stretch. His delivery then features a long arm action and a very short stride, with his arm whipping around from a high slot and slinging across his body, sending him spinning towards third base.

The downside is Santos has a messy delivery – Eric Longenhagen called him a “20-grade athlete” on the 20-80 scouting scale – which leads to a lot of walks. He had a 12.6% walk rate in 66 innings split between High-A and Double-A in 2022, and has a career 13.5% walk rate. But! But Santos had a 35.7% strikeout rate this year. Lefties who can do that are always in demand.

Santos has never pitched above Double-A and he only has 18.1 career innings at that level, so an invite to big league camp is not guaranteed. The Yankees do some great things with pitcher development but improving control is not exactly their strong suit. Maybe they can get Santos around the plate more often. If they do, they could really have something here.

LHP Tanner Tully

Mr. Tully made his big league debut in Yankee Stadium on April 22nd and gave up the third of Aaron Judge’s 62 home runs (video). Judge hit 62 homers this year. Did you know that? Friggin’ insane, man. Tully, 28, was a 26th round pick in 2016 and his MLB numbers as an up and down guy with the Guardians this year were pretty yucky: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 2 K.

During his limited big league time Tully worked with a low-90s fastball, a mid-80s changeup, and a low-80s slider. The Guardians are one of the best pitcher development teams in the sport, if not the best, and if they were unable to coach up Tully the last few years, the Yankees probably won’t be able to either. He had a 4.72 ERA (3.94 FIP) with an 18.5% strikeout rate in 122 Triple-A innings this year. He’s probably just a Triple-A inventory arm more than a hidden gem.

RHP Ryan Weber

Welcome back, Webbie. His nickname has to be Webbie, right? Gotta be. Baseball nicknames are so unimaginative these days. Weber, 32, returns after splitting 2022 between Triple-A Scranton and the Yankees. Four different times he was called up for a few days and then designated for assignment, only to sign a new minor league contract with the Yankees after electing free agency. I assume that’s the plan again in 2023, and Weber’s cool with it seeing how he’s back. (The Yankees pay veterans well in Triple-A. That’s presumably why Weber’s okay with it.)

Weber had a 3.86 ERA (4.57 FIP) with the RailRiders this year and allowed just one run in 10.2 innings with the Yankees (and got a save!). He’s the ideal Triple-A innings guy. He can start or relieve, he has a rubber arm, and he’s accepted this role as the guy who comes up for a few days and then gets designated for assignment so the Yankees don’t burn an option on a younger player (players only get five send-downs per year now, remember). Good to have you back Webbie, if that is your real nickname.

On that note, it seems like the Yankees are bringing in a lot of Triple-A pitching depth. All of these guys either have Triple-A experience (and in some cases MLB experience) or have pitched well enough/long enough in Double-A that a move up to Triple-A to beg in 2023 would be reasonable:

• Starters (10): RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Jhony Brito, RHP Sean Boyle, RHP Deivi Garcia, LHP Matt Krook, RHP Clarke Schmidt, RHP Mitch Spence, LHP Tanner Tully, RHP Randy Vasquez, RHP Ryan Weber
• Relievers (12): RHP Carson Coleman, RHP Jimmy Cordero, RHP Nick Ernst, RHP Demarcus Evans, RHP Michael Gomez, RHP Zac Houston, RHP Steven Jennings, RHP Barrett Loseke, LHP Matt Minnick, RHP James Norwood, LHP Nick Ramirez, RHP Greg Weissert

Lotta names! And I didn’t even include Albert Abreu or Junior Fernandez, who could get designated for assignment and clear waivers, and remain with the Yankees as non-40-man roster players. Or Ron Marinaccio, who could get numbers-crunched down to Triple-A should Mike King come back from his elbow fracture without a hitch and be ready to go on Opening Day.

Some of those starters can go to the bullpen (Boyle, Spence, Tully, Weber) and it wouldn’t be the end of the world if a few of those guys return to Double-A to start the season (Beeter, Jennings, etc.), but still, that's an awful lot of Triple-A roster candidates. Spring Training injuries and opt out clauses will thin things out, plus trades are possible, but yeah, the Yankees are loading up in Triple-A pitching depth this offseason.

Is there anything to this beyond the usual “you can never have enough pitching?” The Yankees had to scramble at times to make sure the RailRiders had enough arms this year, though that was at least partially due to the gutting of the Triple-A rotation at the deadline. The Yankees signed Danny Salazar and Shane Greene in May, and Richard Rodriguez in June, then August brought Anthony Banda, Jacob Barnes, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Chasen Shreve.

Until I have reason to believe otherwise, I’m chalking all these signings up to standard pitching depth additions. Maybe having Ramirez makes it easier to part with Lucas Luetge when a 40-man roster spot is needed, or Evans makes it easier to move Abreu or Fernandez, but I don’t think any of this portends a more significant move involving the pitching staff. Signing Tully or Weber doesn’t make it easier to, say, trade Frankie Montas, you know?

UTIL Jamie Westbrook

Westbrook grew up in Arizona but was raised a Yankees fan, and after signing he posted a few pictures on Instagram of himself as a kid with Yankees gear. The 27-year-old was part of the USA Olympic team last year and he’s never played in the big leagues. Westbrook is a career .277/.364/.441 (112 wRC+) hitter in parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level. He doesn’t have MLB experience, but I’m sure he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player.

Originally drafted by his hometown Diamondbacks, the righty hitting Westbrook spent the last two years in the Tigers’ and Brewers’ systems, and he’s played mostly second base and left field in his career. He also has experience at third base and in right. Phillip Evans is a veteran Triple-A guy who played those exact positions for the RailRiders in 2022. I guess Westbrook will replace Evans and fill that role as the Triple-A do-to-all guy.

Combine growing up a Yankees fan with punishing minor league pitching in the late innings of Spring Training games (a strong possibility given Westbrook’s Triple-A track record) and you have a recipe for a March cult hero. It’s been a while since Westbrook’s had any prospect shine (last appeared on a prospect list in 2019), but he’s reasonably young and has had Triple-A success. Perhaps the Yankees can work their Gio Urshela magic with him.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Harrison Bader will not play in the World Baseball Classic. He committed to Israel over the summer while with the Cardinals, and he’s backing out now because he missed so much time with injury and wants a proper Spring Training, according to Jacob Gurvis. I don’t know what the 2023 WBC rules are, but according to the 2017 rules, the Yankees could have blocked Bader from playing because he was on the injured list on Aug. 31st. Given the foot injury this year and the fact Bader is entering a) his first full season with the Yankees, and b) his contract year at a time when quality center fielders are few and far between, yeah, probably smart to prioritize Spring Training and preparation for the 2023 season. As far as we know the only Yankees players committed to the WBC are Nestor Cortes (USA) and Wandy Peralta (Dominican Republic), though I’m sure there will be a few others when it’s all said and done … And finally, ESPN announced its first wave of Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts earlier this week. The Yankees have two dates so far:

• June 4th: Yankees at Dodgers (fun!)
• June 18th: Yankees at Red Sox (groan)

ESPN still has a bunch more Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts to announce, and eyeballing the schedule, I could see them picking up Cubs at Yankees on July 9th (the day before the All-Star break), Astros at Yankees on Aug. 6th, and Yankees at Astros on Sept. 3rd. The Red Sox visit the Yankees on June 11th, though I don’t think ESPN would put the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball three weeks in a row. ESPN has already picked another game (Phillies vs. Nationals in the Little League Classic) the day the Yankees and Red Sox play their only other Sunday game (Aug. 20), so it looks like we’ll get just one interminable Yankees vs. Red Sox game on Sunday Night Baseball in 2023. Hopefully we can escape with just those two Sunday night games next year, but I fear ESPN will pick up one or two (or three) more Yankees games. We’ll see.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)