December 13th, 2022: Murakami, Kepler, Carpenter, Rodon, LeMahieu, Mattingly, Blake

On this date 21 (!) years ago, the Yankees signed Jason Giambi to a seven-year contract worth $120M. At the time it was the fifth largest contract in baseball history behind Alex Rodriguez ($252M), Derek Jeter ($189M), Manny Ramirez ($160M), and Mike Hampton ($121M). Giambi hit .260/.404/.521 (145 wRC+) in pinstripes and averaged 37.7 homers and +4.0 WAR per 162 games, though he didn’t always play a full season. His signature game as a Yankee was Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. He took Pedro Martinez deep twice (video) to spur the comeback and set up Aaron Boone’s walk-off home run. Too bad Giambi never got a ring. He hit .279/.409/.510 in 32 postseason games with the Yankees and was a fun dude. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Latest hot stove rumors. With their weekend signing of Kodai Senga (five years and $75M), the Mets have an estimated $349.6M luxury tax payroll, according to FanGraphs. The Yankees have the second highest payroll in their own city by nearly $100M ($266.5M per FanGraphs). They could sign the Carloses (Correa and Rodon) and still have a lower payroll than the Mets. It’s time for Hal Steinbrenner to step up and start running a $300M payroll like the Dodgers and Mets. You’re the Yankees. Act like it. Let’s get to the latest hot stove chatter.

Murakami will be posted in 2025

Yakult Swallows third baseman Munetaka Murakami will be posted after the 2025 season. The Kyodo News reports Murakami signed a three-year, $13.3M extension that stipulates he be posted in three years. That contract makes him one the highest paid players in Japan (Masahiro Tanaka was the highest paid player in 2022 at around $6.6M).

"I'm just grateful to have signed a deal like this. I'll need to work even harder," Murakami told the Kyodo News about his contract and making the jump to MLB in three years.

Murakami is the best player in the world not under contract with an MLB team. He slashed .318/.458/.711 (241 wRC+) with 56 homers in 2022, breaking Sadaharu Oh’s long-standing single-season home run record for a Japanese-born player. Murakami is a lefty hitter (hello short porch) with premium ball-tracking data, and he’s regarded as a nimble defender at third.

The three-year term of Murakami’s new contract is significant. He turns 23 in February and will be 25 when he’s posted, at which point he’ll no longer be subject to the international bonus pools. Those only apply to players under 25. In three years Murakami will be able to sign a contract of any size rather than settle for a bonus in the $5M to $6M range. Given his age and skill set, he’s likely a $200M player. Maybe $300M given the spending this offseason.

To be clear, Murakami still has to go through the posting system in three years. He won’t be a true free agent. That means he’ll have a 45-day window to negotiate, and the team that signs him will have to pay the Swallows a posting fee. Here’s the posting fee structure:

• Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of contract value
• Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of amount over $25M
• Contract worth more than $50M: $9.275M plus 15% of amount over $50M

A $200M contract would come with a $31.775M posting fee and I think that can be paid across two years. Either way, the posting fee is a significant secondary cost. It doesn’t count against the luxury tax, but it is real money, and potentially a lot of it.

While it would be nice to plop Murakami into the lineup right now, the three-year timetable works well for the Yankees financially. It gives them a nice long runway to plan things out, and although Aaron Judge will still have six years remaining on his new contract, there’s all this:

• Aaron Hicks’ contract will be up (if he’s not traded before then).
• Giancarlo Stanton will only have two years remaining on his contract.
• DJ LeMahieu will only have one year remaining on his contract.
• Gerrit Cole could be gone if he uses his opt out after 2024.

Also the kids (Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, etc.) will be in their first arbitration year at best in 2026, so they won’t be making big money. More likely, they’ll still be in their pre-arbitration years and making something close to the league minimum, particularly Dominguez. The kids will be cheap and a few of those long-term deals will end just in time to add another one.

That all said, planning now to sign a free agent in three years is kinda dumb. Imagine putting your 2020 roster together with an eye on signing Cody Bellinger when he became a free agent? The Yankees are in a place right now where they have to prioritize the short-term. Cole, Judge, and Stanton will be in their primes only so much longer. The Yankees passing on, say, Carlos Rodon because they want Murakami in three years wouldn’t sit well with me.

At least now we know when exactly Murakami is coming over, and we can see how he performs and evolves between now and then, and see where the Yankees are at too. Three years ago we thought the Yankees were set long-term with Gleyber Torres at shortstop, and that didn’t go as planned. Three years is an eternity in baseball years. So much can and will change.

Yankees, Twins have talked outfielders

According to Joel Sherman (subs. req’d), the Yankees have engaged the Twins (and the Diamondbacks) about their lefty hitting outfielders. Minnesota has four lefty hitting outfielders for the two corner spots plus DH: Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Kirilloff and Larnach debuted in 2021, Wallner in 2022. They’re all MLB ready (though Kirilloff has had trouble staying healthy).

Kepler is the logical trade candidate because he’s the oldest, the most expensive, and has the least amount of team control remaining. Sure enough, Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes (subs. req’d) say Kepler has drawn trade interest this offseason, though not yet enough to land a significant piece. Minnesota needs rotation help and also a shortstop better than Kyle Farmer.

The Yankees have had interest in Kepler in the past and I wrote him up as a potential trade target last May. Kepler will turn 30 in February – I would’ve guessed he’s 27 or 28 – and he authored a .227/.318/.348 (95 wRC+) line with nine homers in 446 plate appearances around a broken toe (hit-by-pitch) this past season. He’s always been a Statcast darling:

With the exception of 2019, when he rocket balled his way to 39 home runs, Kepler has always left the Twins wanting more. He has a career .248 BABIP in over 3,300 plate appearances and that is historically low. It is sixth lowest among nearly 1,200 players with at least 3,000 plate appearances in the Expansion Era (since 1961) and it’s not like he’s a slow, lumbering player.

Twins bloggers and the Twins themselves have been trying to crack the case of Kepler’s BABIP for years. It boils down to a lot of infield pop ups (career 11.7%) and the shift. Kepler has been shifted in over 90% of his plate appearances the last three seasons, one of the highest rates in baseball. He has put 15 – 15! – balls in play without the shift since 2020. Crazy.

Taylor Bechtold ran the numbers in August and found Kepler has lost 47 hits to the shift since 2020, second most in baseball behind Corey Seager (Anthony Rizzo is fourth on that list). Add 47 hits to Kepler’s line since 2020 and his batting average goes from .220 to .268. That’s overly simplistic but yes, it’s fair to say Kepler has been hurt by the shift more than most.

Kepler’s secondary skills are very good. He’s an outstanding defensive right fielder and he often slides over to play center when Byron Buxton is injured. He’s a very good base runner despite modest stolen base totals (16-for-18 since 2020), he hasn’t had a sub-10% walk rate since 2017, and he’s never had a double-digit swinging strike rate. The talent is there and you can understand why Twins fans are frustrated by this:

• 2016: 93 wRC+ (first full MLB season)
• 2017: 94 wRC+
• 2018: 98 wRC+
• 2019: 122 wRC+
• 2020: 109 wRC+
• 2021: 97 wRC+
• 2022: 95 wRC+

We know why Kepler has run such a low BABIP (pop ups and the shift) and the Twins have tried to fix it with swing adjustments and the like. Now the shift is going away. Is that enough to help Kepler make the jump from average-ish offensive performer to above-average? Is it really that simple? His power is almost all to right field, so Kepler is short porch friendly.

Kepler is owed $8.5M in 2023 with a $10M club option ($1M buyout) for 2024, so he’s affordable, though he’s never played left field in the big leagues. Neither has Judge. One of those two (or Harrison Bader, I guess) would have to slide over to left. They’re such good defenders and such good athletes that I think they’d have no trouble adjusting to left field as long as you give them Spring Training to prepare. But, until they make that adjustment, you never really know.

It's possible the Yankees checked in on Kepler – we don’t even know they contacted the Twins about Kepler, maybe they called about Larnach or Kirilloff? – as a Judge fallback plan because he’s a natural right fielder and are no longer interested. You can’t help but dream on this guy, Twins fans have been doing it for the better part of a decade, and the anti-shift rules are a tangible reason to believe an offensive uptick is coming. How much of an uptick? I don’t know, but hopefully something.

The Twins are known to want pitching and the AL Central is winnable. I doubt they want to trade Kepler for prospects. They figure to want immediate MLB help. Is there a Frankie Montas for Kepler trade to be made? Sign Rodon and flip Montas for a sorely needed lefty hitting outfielder who doesn’t strike out excessively (14.8% in 2022) and does many other things well?

Montas for Kepler may work on paper but we’re missing variables. What would it cost to re-sign Andrew Benintendi or get Bryan Reynolds* instead? Who’s replacing Montas in the rotation? Is it really Rodon, or will the Yankees do the one-year veteran contract thing with, say, Johnny Cueto or Noah Syndergaard? There are alternatives and opportunity costs to consider.

* Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) reports the Pirates want a Juan Soto-type package for Reynolds and lol. I like the guy but come on.

At the same time, how many free agent outfielders would you comfortably expect to outperform Kepler in 2023? The market has thinned a bit. Here are the best available outfielders by projected 2023 WAR:

1. Andrew Benintendi: +2.3 WAR (post-hamate surgery)
2. Michael Conforto: +1.6 WAR (missed 2022 with shoulder surgery)
3. Brandon Drury: +1.6 WAR (not a full-time outfielder)
4. Jurickson Profar: +1.5 WAR
5. Brian Anderson: +1.5 WAR (not a full-time outfielder)
6. Michael Brantley: +1.5 WAR (post-shoulder surgery)

Kepler outperforming those guys next year wouldn’t be that surprising. I don’t think anyone knows exactly how much banning the shift will improve offense – teams still have a good bit of freedom with their infield positioning – but it’s one of those things that will only help hitters. Kepler’s not going to lose more hits now, you know? Are we talking 10 extra batting average points? 15? 40? I dunno.

This works both ways too. With fewer alternatives on the free agent market, the Twins can ask for more in return for Kepler, who’s contract isn’t bad at all. Compared to some of the deals that have been given out this winter, he’s a straight up bargain. Don’t want to give me those two good young players for Kepler? Fine, have fun paying Profar $18M a year for the next three years.

Reynolds is my guy and I would like the Yankees to exhaust that trade possibility before shifting to Kepler. I’m curious to see what Kepler can do without the shift, and even if he remains a league average-ish hitter, there’s enough there that he won't be a zero. The guy has averaged +3.3 WAR per 162 games. He’s a good player. It feels like he should be better, but he’s good as he is.

Carpenter wants more at-bats

The Yankees have remained in touch with Matt Carpenter this offseason, but he wants a clearer path to playing time, reports Sherman (subs. req’d). Carpenter was so happy to latch on with the Yankees and continue his career this year that he said he would “load the bags on the plane” if the team asked. Now, after hitting like Barry Bonds for a few weeks, he wants at-bats. I get it.

Reminder: Carpenter, 37, hit .305/.412/.727 (217 wRC+) with 15 home runs in only 154 plate appearances this year, and the underlying numbers were excellent. I gave him $8M as part of my Offseason Plan with no obvious path for at-bats. They’ll open up somehow, right? I totally get Carpenter wanting more playing time now though. After what he did this year, I would too.

The Yankees stuck Carpenter in the outfield a few times this year, but that was desperation (we need his bat in the lineup, etc.) more than a good idea. I’m okay sacrificing defense for offense but boy, Carpenter as the full-time left fielder at his age sounds like a terrible idea. His path to regular at-bats with the Yankees is what? Hope someone gets hurt? Fake it at second base?

I feel like a reunion with the Cardinals is possible. They need more lefty power and Carpenter could replace Albert Pujols as the veteran DH leader. The Cubs have interest. The Blue Jays desperately need a lefty bat. The Padres could use a DH. The Mariners too. Maybe even the Phillies while Bryce Harper recovers from Tommy John surgery. There are contenders with at-bats – potentially a lot of at-bats – available that could entice Carpenter.

The Yankees put the bench on the back burner the last two offseasons. They didn’t sign Jay Bruce (or re-sign Brett Gardner) until after Spring Training opened in 2021, and they didn’t trade for Rougned Odor until after Opening Day. They signed Marwin Gonzalez after camp opened this year, though to be fair, it was a weird offseason because of the lockout.

If Carpenter comes back, I suspect it would be very late in the offseason and maybe even during Spring Training, after the Yankees do all their heavy lifting. That’s kinda what happened with my Offseason Plan. I made my major moves, had some money left over, and threw it at Carpenter. Matty Carp was scrap heap royalty this year. A reunion would be cool, but I don’t think it’s a priority for the Yankees, and he understandably wants to play and play a lot.

Hamels eyeing 2023 comeback

Cole Hamels, who made one start for the Braves in 2020 and hasn’t pitched since, hopes to make a comeback next year, he told Dan Gelston. He said he’s had three surgeries within the last year (shoulder, knee, foot) and is healthy now, and he’s realistic about his situation. Hamels said he’ll take a non-roster deal, and if it doesn’t work out in Spring Training, he’ll retire.

“So just understanding what was kind of wrong, getting it fixed, and then actually being able to rehab it, just kind of addressing the right areas and not trying to overcompensate, I think has kind of helped,” Hamels told Gelston. “... A Spring Training invite is no risk, all reward. If you start me out in February, I’ll be ready by April 1st. Or I’ll know exactly I can’t do it and I will be the first one to admit, 'Nope.' I had a great career. I can hang it up and be proud of what I did.”

Hamels, 39 later this month, pitched to a 3.81 ERA (4.09 FIP) with solid strikeout (23.2%) and ground ball (47.3%) rates in 141.2 innings for the Cubs in 2019, his last full MLB season. That was four years and three surgeries ago though. Hamels told Gelston he’s hitting 87 mph in his bullpen sessions, which is encouraging given his age, injury history, and the fact his fastball averaged 88.4 mph in 2019.

Free agent prices have been insane this offseason and Hamels has enough pedigree to get a minor league deal from someone. He signed with the Dodgers in Aug. 2021 but never did pitch for them because of the injuries, and he called it “one of the most embarrassing things for me.” Wouldn’t surprise me if Hamels goes back to the Dodgers to try to make good on that deal.

Anyway, I just figured I’d mention this since Hamels is a familiar name, and the Yankees have to rebuild their rotation depth a bit after trading JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the deadline. A minor league contract is zero risk. If Hamels is open to it, bring him to camp and see what’s what. If it works, great. If not, oh well. Take fliers on guys who know what it takes to be great, and Hamels was great for a long time.

40-man roster situation

And finally, I just want to note the Yankees have made neither the Judge nor Tommy Kahnle contracts official yet. They have one open 40-man roster spot and need to open at least one more, plus they’ll need more 40-man spots later in the offseason whenever they make other moves. Roster machinations are coming.

Designating the recently claimed Junior Fernandez for assignment to clear the other Judge/Kahnle spot would be the easiest move. Hernandez got all the way to the Yankees on waivers, meaning every team but the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets had a chance to claim him and passed. He just might clear waivers and stick around a non-40-man roster player.

The out of options guys (Albert Abreu, Estevan Florial, Lucas Luetge) could be 40-man casualties. There’s also a chance the Yankees attach a 40-man roster prospect(s) (Yoendrys Gomez? Everson Pereira?) to Hicks and/or Josh Donaldson to clear salary, and open multiple spots at once. We’ll see. Point is, 40-man moves are coming soon. Get ready for ‘em.

2. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Carlos Rodon. Now that the Yankees have re-signed Aaron Judge, it’s time to get serious about improving the rest of the roster. All the Yankees have done this winter is re-sign Judge and Anthony Rizzo, and sign Tommy Kahnle (and claim Junior Fernandez). You don’t give Judge that contract only to skimp on the rest of the roster, right?

“We're on the clock to continue to find ways to improve the club both small and large, so we'll see where it takes us,” Brian Cashman told Max Goodman at the Winter Meetings. "We haven't officially landed any planes. We have some lined up to be brought down but there's a lot more planes out there circling. There's some opportunities that exist out there and hopefully we'll find a way to secure a few of them for us that gives us a better shot."

The Yankees have been connected to free agent lefty Carlos Rodon the last few days, even after re-signing Judge and by reliable sources, and Jon Heyman says they’re going to make an offer soon. That's a weird leak, no? How often do we hear a team is about to make an offer? Almost feels like Scott Boras is using the Yankees to get other teams to up their offers. I dunno.

Anyway, Heyman also says Judge told Hal Steinbrenner he wants the Yankees to improve the roster, and Rodon would certainly improve the roster. Here are the top unsigned free agent starters by projected 2023 WAR:

1. Carlos Rodon: +4.7 WAR
2. Nathan Eovaldi: +2.4 WAR
3. Corey Kluber: +1.7 WAR
4. Ross Stripling: +1.5 WAR
5. Michael Wacha: +1.5 WAR

Other than signing Carlos Correa, signing Rodon is the single most impactful move the Yankees can make realistically now. He’s an ace-caliber pitcher (2.67 ERA and 2.42 FIP the last two years) and he would step into the rotation spot currently occupied by Domingo German. It’s a big upgrade. With the Yankees apparently in on Rodon, let’s break down his game.

Background

Rodon, 30 this past weekend, has been A Guy for a long time. He was a potential top three rounds pick out of high school in 2011, but he had a back injury his senior year and fell to the Brewers in the 16th round. Three years as Trea Turner’s teammate at North Carolina later, the White Sox selected Rodon with the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft. There are some major yikes at the top of the 2014 draft:

1. LHP Brady Aiken, Astros (did not sign)
2. RHP Tyler Kolek, Marlins
3. LHP Carlos Rodon, White Sox
4. C/OF Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
5. SS Nick Gordon, Twins
6. C Alex Jackson, Mariners

There was some thought Rodon would make his MLB debut a few weeks after the draft like Chris Sale, but that didn’t happen. He instead debuted in April 2015, less than 10 months after being drafted. Rodon was the second 2014 draftee to reach the big leagues after No. 17 pick Brandon Finnegan, who the Royals called up in Sept. 2014 as part of their postseason push.

From 2014-20, Rodon was solid (4.14 ERA and 4.26 FIP) and injured (536.2 innings in parts of six seasons), and the White Sox non-tendered him in Dec. 2020. He took a 35% pay cut to go back to Chicago, then had a breakout year in 2021 (which included a no-hitter). Rodon became a free agent after that season, signed with the Giants, had another great year, then opted out of his contract this offseason. He left one year and $22.5M on the table.

Arsenal

Rodon’s pitching style is similar to a former Yankees lefty: Andrew Miller. Or Ron Guidry, I suppose, though I wasn’t around to see and fully appreciate Guidry’s heyday. Like Miller, Rodon works with fastballs up and sliders down, except Miller was a short reliever and Rodon does it as a starter, and he does it very effectively. There’s not much mystery here:

Rodon throws his fastball and slider more than 90% of the time, and he fills the gaps with show-me curveballs and changeups. His career took off two years ago when he abandoned his sinker and scaled back on the changeup, and embraced throwing his two best pitches almost exclusively. And those two pitchers are electric. Some 2022 numbers (min. 200 thrown):

Fastball run value: -22 (2nd in MLB behind Justin Verlander)
Fastball whiff rate: 27.9% (7th in MLB, MLB average is 21.9%)

Slider run value: -9 (8th best in MLB)
Slider whiff rate: 39.0% (6th in MLB, MLB average is 34.3%)

(Statcast’s pitch values are presented as negatives, as in Rodon’s fastball “allowed” 22 fewer runs than the average fastball. I’d rather just say +22, meaning it was 22 runs better than average, but that’s not my call. In this instance, the bigger the negative, the better.)

According to Statcast, Rodon’s fastball and slider were two of the 50 best pitches in the sport in 2022 and there are an awful lot of pitchers with an awful lot of pitches out there. He had a top 10 fastball and a top 10 slider. Missing bats is the name of the game and Rodon was at or near the top of all the important leaderboards (min. 150 innings) (video):

Strikeout rate
1. Carlos Rodon: 33.4%
2. Shohei Ohtani: 33.2%
3. Gerrit Cole: 32.4%
4. Brandon Woodruff: 30.6%
5. Corbin Burnes: 30.5%
(MLB average: 22.4%)

Swinging strike rate
1. Kevin Gausman: 15.5%
2. Shane McClanahan: 15.5%
3. Corbin Burnes: 15.1%
4. Dylan Cease: 15.0%
5. Shohei Ohtani: 14.9%
6. Gerrit Cole: 14.9%
7. Carlos Rodon: 14.1%
(MLB average: 11.2%)

In-zone contact rate
1. Shane McClanahan: 78.3%
2. Carlos Rodon: 78.4%
3. Dylan Cease: 79.3%
4. Brandon Woodruff: 79.6%
5. Shohei Ohtani: 81.1%
(MLB average: 84.8%)

The pitch data (spin, vertical break, etc.) all checks out and part of Rodon’s success the last two years is a significant jump in velocity. Earlier in his career he sat 92-94 mph and would touch 97 mph. The last two years Rodon has sat around 96 mph while regularly hitting 100 mph. Look at the big jump in velocity two years ago. It jumped and it stuck:

The velocity increase stems from good health, first and foremost, and also improved mechanics. A few offseasons ago Rodon started training at Pro X Athlete near Indianapolis, a new school facility with an emphasis on biomechanics and strength training. They got Rodon to use his lower half more in his delivery, which has helped generate the extra velocity.

“(Rodon) just walked up and said ‘Fix me.’ Like, ‘I want to be fixed. What do I need to do?’” Jay Lehr, Pro X Athlete’s pitching guru, told Greg Joyce recently. “With all the drills that we did, he stayed in that back leg and tried to hold that energy as long as he could before he landed. It just kind of translated for him. He figured it out on his own. He worked his rear end off and had a good feel to his mechanics.”

Velocity is not everything but it is a big thing. The mid-to-upper-90s gas makes Rodon’s fastball harder to hit, and it also makes his slider more deadly. Hitters have to respect the fastball more and have less time to adjust to breaking stuff. At 92-94 mph, Rodon was pretty good. Solid but largely spectacularly. At 96+ mph, Rodon’s an ace.

That said, look at that velocity graph. Rodon’s velocity has gradually declined the deeper he got into the season the last two years. He wore down. His fastball averaged 96.3 mph this past April. By September, it was down to 94.9 mph. That’s still better than where it was earlier in his career, but losing close to 1.5 mph in-season is a bit of a red flag, especially since you’re acquiring this guy with the idea of having him pitch deep into October.

Rodon doesn’t walk many (7.1%) even though he’s slider heavy. Slider heavy guys tend to have higher walk rates because sliders are intended to finish out of the zone. The one performance concern is the home runs, or lack thereof. Rodon does not get ground balls and his home run rate the last two seasons might be unsustainably low, particularly in Yankee Stadium. Some 2021-22 numbers (min. 200 innings):

• 35.6 GB% (12th lowest in MLB)
• 0.72 HR/9 (7th lowest in MLB)
• 7.8% HR/FB (lowest in MLB)

All fly balls are not created equal – Rodon’s average fly ball distance (304 feet) the last two years is fifth lowest in baseball – but yeah, that’s a lot of fly balls and not a lot of home runs. In big Oracle Park in San Francisco, where the marine layer knocks the ball down at night, you can manage a 0.61 HR/9 with a 34.1% ground ball rate as Rodon did in 2022. With Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch? Eh, probably not. An increase in home run rate would be likely.

It does help that Rodon is a lefty and a great one, so he’ll face lineups stacked with righties, and righties don’t use the short porch as frequently as lefties. Also, Nestor Cortes shows this fly ball heavy profile can work in the Bronx. Nestor has a 31.2% ground ball rate and a 303-foot average fly ball distance the last two years. His home run rate: 1.07 HR/9 and 9.4% HR/FB. That’s almost exactly league average. In Yankee Stadium, an average homer rate is a good outcome. Rodon with, say, a 1.10 HR/9 would still be really freaking good.

Given his fly ball tendencies, there’s a chance Rodon’s next few years will look like Cole’s last few years. He’ll dominate more often than not, but when he does make a mistake, it’ll end up in the seats. Home runs are pretty much the only way Cole gives up runs (68% of runs allowed came on homers in 2022). That applies to Rodon to some degree, he’s just given up way fewer home runs.

To wrap it all up, Rodon has an elite fastball and an elite slider, and that two-pitch mix has turned him into the best bat-missing starter in the sport the last two years. He doesn’t walk many but he doesn’t get ground balls either, and while it hasn’t put a dent in his home run rate yet, it might in Yankee Stadium. The good outweighs the bad, I think. Not every fly ball goes over the fence. Not even most. Rodon is a true dominator and there aren’t many of those guys around.

(Rodon’s skill set is similar to Patrick Corbin’s, who was a year younger when he hit free agency than Rodon is now. Corbin was another 90% fastball/slider guy coming off a great year. The key difference is the fastball. Corbin’s averaged 90.8 mph his contract year, and other numbers on his heater weren’t great. Rodon’s fastball is two grades better than Corbin’s.)

Injury history

There are two reasons to be skeptical of Rodon. One, his track record as a top tier starter is only two years long. I don’t worry about that so much. Teams know so much about pitchers and how to maximize their ability these days. And two, he has an injury history, and it is ugly. A recap of his injuries:

• 2016: Missed four weeks with a wrist sprain (he fell climbing up the dugout steps).
• 2017: Missed three months with biceps tendinitis and one month with shoulder trouble. The shoulder injury required offseason surgery.
• 2018: Missed the first three months rehabbing from shoulder surgery.
• 2019: Blew out his elbow after seven starts and needed Tommy John surgery.
• 2020: Missed seven weeks with a sore shoulder (he was ready for Opening Day after Tommy John surgery because of the pandemic shutdown).
• 2021: Missed three weeks (two separate injured list stints) with a sore shoulder.

Hurting your wrist falling up the stairs is an everyman injury – "I’m not going to lie, I was a little embarrassed. I was like, ‘I hope no one saw that,’” Rodon told Chris Kuc – and nothing to worry about. That’s an awful lot of shoulder problems though. The shoulder bothered Rodon late in 2021 and the White Sox gave him a ton of extra rest in September (three of his four September starts were on at least eight days rest).

Not counting the stairs-related wrist injury, 2022 was the first year Rodon did not visit the injured list with an arm injury since 2016. Similar to Judge posting up the last two years after dealing with a bunch of injuries earlier in his career, the most recent data is the most relevant data, and the most recent data on Rodon is a healthy pitcher who set career highs in starts (31) and innings (178) in 2022.

That all said, I think Judge’s injury history (pulled muscles, a broken wrist on a hit-by-pitch, etc.) is a wee bit different than Rodon’s. He’s a pitcher, so right off the bat he carries more inherent injury risk, and he also has a history of shoulder trouble. It’s not often a pitcher misses time with shoulder soreness in multiple years and then just gets better in his 30s, particularly when he’s already gone under the knife.

The Yankees have gotten better at keeping players healthy and they gave their starters extra rest whenever possible this year. I see no reason to think they won’t do the same next year, and the year after that, and the year after that. Given the injury history, it might be best to treat Rodon as a 25-start, 140-inning pitcher you then turn loose in October. If his arm holds up and he can give you more, great, but there’s enough injury history here that caution is warranted.

Contract projections

Contract projections haven’t been particularly helpful this offseason, eh? Free agents are blowing contract projections out of the water, particularly the top of the market guys. Jacob deGrom and his recent injuries got five years at huge dollars. Justin Verlander got $43.3M a year for his age 40 and 41 seasons. Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner are now signed through their age 40 seasons. Sheesh.

We have to start somewhere though, so here are Rodon’s contract projections:

• Jim Bowden (subs. req’d): 5 years, $144M ($28.8M per year)
• ESPN: 5 years, $130M ($26M per year)
• FanGraphs: 5 years, $135M ($27M per year)
• MLBTR: 5 years, $140M ($28M per year)

Heyman says Rodon is seeking six years at $30M a year and more recently Susan Slusser reported Rodon wants seven years. I’m not sure Rodon will get a seventh year with that injury history, but asking for one isn’t unreasonable in this market. Given what we’ve seen these last few weeks, getting Rodon on a five-year contract would be a major win. A sixth year feels inevitable.

Also, Rodon rejected the qualifying offer, so the Yankees would have to surrender their second and fifth highest 2023 draft picks, plus $1M in 2024 international bonus money, to sign him. The White Sox didn’t make Rodon the qualifying offer last offseason, which was a miscalculation on their part. That allowed the Giants to make him one this offseason, so they’ll get a supplemental first round pick if he signs elsewhere (assuming he gets at least $50M).

Rodon’s market is said to be robust and that was the case even before deGrom and Verlander signed. Now that he’s the clear No. 1 starter in free agency, I’m sure the bidding has picked up. The Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Rangers, Red Sox, and Twins are all said to have interest in Rodon, though the Mets and Rangers were after him before making other rotation additions, so they’re probably out now. Point is, there will be competition.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Obviously yes. Rodon is excellent and he would make any team better. The Yankees are trying to win the World Series and Rodon is the kinda player who can shift the balance of power in a division race and in a postseason series. You’d feel good giving him the ball in a Game 7 on the road. The injuries do make Rodon a fairly significant risk, but the upside is immense.

We could nitpick Rodon. He’s never played in an atmosphere like New York and he has limited postseason experience (four runs in 2.2 innings in two appearances), and he’s probably never going to win a most popular teammate award. Then again, neither would Cole or Max Scherzer. There’s a difference between being a bad teammate and being hyperfocused on your game. Bottom line, Rodon is great and he’s shown the ability and willingness to make adjustments, which bodes well for his chances of remaining effective long-term.

Cole and Rodon would be a dynamite 1-2 punch, plus Frankie Montas and Luis Severino will be free agents next offseason. Rodon would provide rotation stability beyond 2023. And! And if Cole uses his opt out after 2024, it would be easier to let him leave with Rodon around. He would still have to be pitching at an ace-level or close to it, of course, but that is only two years away.

Rodon is an obvious fit on the field. The real question is will Hal Steinbrenner approve a payroll increase? The Yankees have some avenues to shed salary (Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, etc.), but, realistically, there’s no way to add Rodon without upping payroll significantly. We’re talking an additional $30M or so here, and it would be a long-term deal.

For luxury tax purposes, the Yankees had a franchise record $267M payroll in 2022. FanGraphs estimates their 2023 luxury tax payroll at $266.5M. Sign Rodon and they’re looking at $297M or so, and that’s without doing anything else (left fielder, etc.). Here are the Yankees’ 2023 luxury tax rates as a repeat offender:

• First threshold: $233M (30% tax on overage)
• Second threshold: $253M ($6M plus 42% tax rate on overage)
• Third threshold: $273M ($14.4M plus 75% tax on overage, and 2024 first rounder moves back 10 spots)
• Fourth threshold: $293M ($29.4M plus 90% tax on overage)

Something tells me Hal isn’t eager to pay a 90% tax rate. I could see the $293M threshold – the Steve Cohen Tax – being a hard limit. It’s silly, once you’re this far over you might as well suck it up and keep spending to improve the team, but the Yankees have treated that third threshold as their limit in recent years. Do they care that much about moving their first round pick, which is always late in the first round anyway, back 10 spots? Or do they care about the 75% tax? Yeah.

Signing Rodon and staying under that $293M threshold would likely necessitate shedding salary and going cheap in left field (and on other parts of the roster). It’s doable. The Yankees could attach prospects to Hicks and/or trade Gleyber, then reallocate the money to an affordable left fielder and stay under $293M. It’s definitely doable. It’s not the smartest plan – are you really gonna give Judge and Rodon those contracts only to go cheap elsewhere? – but it can be done.

The Yankees have yet to improve their roster this offseason (re-signing Judge and Rizzo just maintains the status quo, and as much as I like Kahnle, he moves the needle only so much) and they’re running out of ways to meaningfully upgrade the team’s outlook through free agency, where they can use their greatest advantage (money). Rodon is a difference-maker and the Yankees should sign him, and Hal should raise payroll to accommodate him and make sure the Yankees don’t diminish Rodon’s impact by cutting corners elsewhere.

3. Winter Meetings leftovers. Got a few stray non-hot stove nuggets left over from the Winter Meetings. Let’s run through ‘em now.

LeMahieu making progress

Enough to avoid surgery? I don’t know but I hope so. Last week Aaron Boone said DJ LeMahieu is going through workouts in Tampa, and he had another checkup recently to see how his foot is healing. LeMahieu has a fracture in his foot and a ligament issue as well. He’s trying to rehab the injury and avoid surgery. The surgery would be complicated and come with a lengthy rehab.

“He's doing really well. We're encouraged by how he's doing. He's in Tampa right now. I think he was scheduled to see the doctor (last Tuesday) as another check on the foot,” Boone said at the Winter Meetings. “I actually talked to DJ about five or six days ago, and I think he was really encouraged by how he's doing and the time down has kind of helped him. So he's been running and taking ground balls, and I think he's been encouraged by how he's doing. I know Timmy Lentych, our trainer, was encouraged after getting eyes on him, seeing him yesterday. So we're optimistic, and hopefully he continues to move in that direction.”

LeMahieu running and fielding ground balls is good news but remember, that’s not what gave him trouble late this season. The injury is to his right foot, his back foot when hitting, and he couldn’t rotate his foot properly and use his lower half to get power into his swing. Do I need to embed the graph again? Here’s the graph again:

LeMahieu played the field well and still made plenty of contact after the injury, but he didn’t drive the ball at all. His power – not even over-the-fence power, I mean basic line drive to the outfield power – was gone. LeMahieu took a .285/.389/.424 (139 wRC+) line into August and then slashed .182/.248/.236 (41 wRC+) the rest of the way. Seemingly overnight his bat dried up.

I think we’re all worried this is a “he tried to rehab the injury for three months and now he needs surgery anyway” situation, but what can you do other than trust the doctors and hope rehabbing it works? LeMahieu’s seen specialists and had several checkups since the end of the season, so it seems like things are going well. Fingers crossed.

McGriff voted into the Hall of Fame

The Contemporary Era Committee voted Fred McGriff – and only Fred McGriff – into the Hall of Fame last weekend. The 16-person committee, which is the current version of the Veterans Committee, voted him in unanimously. I hope they put the Tom Emanski hat on McGriff’s Hall of Fame plaque.

“I've been totally blessed over the years. This is just icing on the cake. And for it to be unanimous, it's a beautiful thing,” McGriff told Anthony Castrovince. “Growing up here in Tampa, you know, I got cut from my high school team in tenth grade. So for me just to play one day in the big leagues exceeded all expectations.”

The Yankees drafted McGriff in 1981 but he never did play for them. He was traded to the Blue Jays a year later in the Mike Morgan/Dale Murray swap. Murray threw 120 relief innings with a 4.73 ERA in parts of three seasons in pinstripes. That trade was, uh, not worth it. McGriff almost certainly would have joined the 500 home run club if not for the 1994-95 strike. It chopped 66 games off Atlanta’s schedule and McGriff’s prime. He finished with 493 career homers.

I finally got around to putting together a spreadsheet and McGriff is indeed third all-time in career WAR among Yankees’ draft picks. These are drafted players the Yankees signed only:

1. Derek Jeter: +71.3 WAR (1st round in 1992)
2. Andy Pettitte: +60.2 WAR (22nd round in 1990)
3. Fred McGriff: +52.6 WAR (9th round in 1981)
4. Ron Guidry: +50.2 WAR (3rd round in 1971)
5. Thurman Munson: +46.1 WAR (1st round in 1968)
6. Brett Gardner: +44.3 WAR (2rd round in 2005)
7. Jorge Posada: +42.7 WAR (24th round in 1990)
8. Don Mattingly: +42.4 WAR (19th round in 1979)
9. Al Leiter: +40.0 WAR (2nd round in 1984)
10. Aaron Judge: +36.9 WAR and counting (supp. 1st round in 2013)

Judge is already tenth all-time in career WAR among Yankees draft picks, eh? Not sure if that says more about him or the team’s draft history (the draft dates back to 1965). If we include players the Yankees drafted but did not sign, Fred Lynn (3rd round in 1970, +50.2 WAR) and Steve Rogers (60th round in 1967, +44.7 WAR) would crack the top 10.

So McGriff gets into the Hall of Fame but Mattingly does not. Mattingly received eight votes, four short of the 12 needed for induction. Here are the vote totals:

1. Fred McGriff: 16
2. Don Mattingly: 8
3. Curt Schilling: 7
4. Dale Murphy: 6
5. Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro: 3 or fewer each

Schilling got 71.1% of the BBWAA’s vote in 2020, called the writers hacks and said he’d wait until his peers could vote for him, and then the committee had him at 43.8% in 2022. Sucks for you, Curt. Also, Bonds and Clemens are long shots now. Never say never, but the committee giving them that little support is pretty much a death knell for their Hall of Fame chances.

As for Mattingly, he topped at out 28.2% on the BBWAA’s ballot back in 2001. That was his first year of eligibility. His support gradually slipped to 9.1% in 2015 and it wasn’t necessarily because he was seen as less worthy. The BBWAA’s ballot was overstuffed with performance-enhancing drug guys by the mid-2010s and the 10-player limit meant some players got squeezed out. That’s what happened to Mattingly. He was No. 11 on a bunch of ballots, not that the 10-player limit is what kept him out. Mattingly is very much a borderline case.

These committees are the good ol’ boys club. Tony La Russa was on the committee in 2018, lobbied everyone to vote for Harold Baines (who he had as a player with the White Sox), and got him into the Hall of Fame. If the committee likes you, you’ll get in. If not, too bad. McGriff had a few friendly faces on the committee this year (Paul Beeston, Greg Maddux, etc.) and that undoubtedly contributed to him getting into Cooperstown.

Mattingly received no more than six votes from the Modern Baseball Era Committee in 2018  (they don’t reveal vote totals for everyone, so all we know is he got no more than six votes), so jumping up to eight votes four years later is progress. The 12 votes needed for induction are within reach. One of these years Mattingly could run into a committee with former teammates (Wade Boggs? Dave Winfield?), coaching proteges (Joe Torre?), and/or executives (Brian Cashman*?), and get those 12 votes. It’s within reach.

* Executives don’t need to be in the Hall of Fame to be on the committee and they can still be active. Marlins GM Kim Ng was on this year’s committee, for example.

The cool thing about the Hall of Fame is you get so many chances to get in. You can spend 10 years (previously 15 years like Mattingly) on the BBWAA’s ballot, then you can appear on the various committee ballots in perpetuity. And you only need to get over 75% once. Doesn’t matter when it happens. Get over 75% once and you’re a Hall of Famer for life.

Alas and alack, Mattingly will have to wait at least three years to go through the committee again. Next year the committee with vote on non-players (coaches, executives, umpires*, etc.) and the year after will be players who made their greatest impact prior to 1980. Mattingly’s next chance at the Hall of Fame will be Dec. 2025. Congrats to McGriff. Maybe Mattingly will join him on the stage in Cooperstown in a few years.

* Joe West is getting into the Hall of Fame next year, isn’t he? Umpiring the most games in MLB history feels like an automatic ticket to Cooperstown.

Blake returning? Yankees also looking to replace Meulens

The Yankees haven’t announced anything and there’s been no reporting on it, but it sounds like pitching coach Matt Blake is back with the Yankees. I say this because Tommy Kahnle said Blake texted him during one of his recent video game streams. Kahnle agreed to his contract with the Yankees last week. Why would a pitching coach who isn’t returning text a newly signed pitcher? Blake’s contract expired Oct. 31st. It’s not like he’s still signed through the end of the year. Hmmm.

In more concrete coaching staff news, Boone told Dan Martin the Yankees are looking to replace assistant hitting coach Hensley Meulens. Meulens left to join the Rockies as their main hitting coach a few weeks ago. Primary hitting coach Dillon Lawson and assistant Casey Dykes are still with the Yankees. They’re looking to replace Meulens as the second assistant.

Last offseason the Yankees specifically sought an ex-player to be their second assistant hitting coach because Lawson and Dykes are analytics guys who didn’t play above college. The Yankees first hired Eric Chavez for the job, but he quickly bolted for the Mets. That led them to Meulens. I imagine they’ll seek another former player this time around. A diverse staff is a must.

Pirates win draft lottery

The first ever draft lottery was held at the Winter Meetings and the Pirates won the No. 1 pick. They would’ve had the No. 3 pick under the old rules (reverse order of the standings). This is the sixth time Pittsburgh has picked No. 1, the most in history. It’s the fourth time they’ve been No. 1 since 2002. Geez. The Twins were the big lottery winners. They jumped from No. 13 to No. 5. Huge increase in value there.

The 18 non-postseason teams each had a chance at the No. 1 pick. The Yankees did not. The 12 postseason teams now pick in order of their finish (Wild Card Series losers before Division Series losers, Division Series losers before Championship Series losers, etc.). The Yankees have the No. 26 pick, which is the pick they would’ve had with reverse order of the standings.

MLB and the MLBPA agreed to the draft lottery in an effort to curb tanking. I don’t know how much it’ll work, but anything with a chance to punish teams that are bad on purpose is a-okay in my book. The Athletics, for example, moved back from No. 2 to No. 6, and the Reds moved back from No. 3 to No. 7. The lottery won’t stop tanking, but you have to start somewhere.

MLB to test new PitchCom system

According to Lindsey Adler, MLB will test a new PitchCom system in Spring Training that allows the pitcher to send pitch calls to the catcher. Right now the system is one way – the catcher sends the call to the pitcher and he has to shake if he wants something else. The new system will put a remote on the pitcher’s belt and allow him to call pitches.

I am in favor of anything that improves pace of play, plus the pitch clock era is upon us. It’s only 15 seconds between pitches with the bases empty. The pitcher only has so long to shake now. The Yankees were all-in on PitchCom last year and I’m sure they’ll give the new pitcher remote a try in Spring Training. Hopefully it improves the pace even more. The average nine-inning game dropped seven minutes this year thanks in part to PitchCom.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Mark Feinsand has the details on the new pre-arbitration bonus pool payouts. They are given to the top 100 pre-arb players based on awards voting and MLB’s mystery “joint WAR.” Dylan Cease, the AL Cy Young runner-up, netted the largest bonus at $2,457,426. That’s on top of his $750,000 salary. Yordan Alvarez is second at $2,381,143. He finished third in the AL MVP voting. The full list of bonuses was not revealed, though Feinsand says 11 players received at least $1M and 11 others received at least $500,000, including Nestor Cortes. He adds Sean Murphy finished fourth in joint WAR, so framing must be included. In that case Jose Trevino received a pre-arb bonus as well. I would think Mike King, who finished 26th among all relievers in WAR despite his season ending on July 22nd, got a bonus too. Bonuses have to be paid by Dec. 23rd. That’s a nice stocking stuffer … And finally, Jon Heyman says the Padres considered offering Aaron Judge a 14-year, $400M contract before he returned to the Yankees. 14 years! That would have taken Judge to age 44 with a $28.6M luxury tax hit. Heyman also says MLB would not have allowed the contract because it was obvious San Diego added years to lower the average annual value and thus luxury tax hit. NHL teams started doing this to circumvent the salary cap years ago, most notably Ilya Kovalchuk’s 17-year contract with the Devils, and eventually the league had to change the rules. Now there’s a limit on years (eight years to re-sign your own player, seven years for a free agent), rules on how money can be distributed during the life of the contract, and a bunch of other stuff. The Padres were considering a 14-year contract for Judge, and Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner, two players entering their age 30 season, each got 11 years this offseason. How long until MLB does something about super long contracts? If teams are spending money, you can be sure the league wants to reign it in.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)