November 18th, 2022: Hot Stove Rumors, Awards, Mailbag

Reminder: I am planning to skip next Friday’s post. I’ll cover any breaking news that pops up, otherwise I’m going to take it easy during Thanksgiving weekend and I hope you do too. It’s good to take your mind off the Yankees every once in a while. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Hot stove rumors. A new batch of free agents will hit the market Friday evening after the non-tender deadline. Lucas Luetge and his projected $1.7M salary is the Yankees’ most notable (only?) non-tender candidate. Cody Bellinger is this year’s big non-tender candidate. His bat continues to regress and if a team as smart as the Dodgers decides he’s not worth $18M or so next year, Bellinger might be broken for good. We’ll find out Friday. Here’s the latest hot stove news.

Mets, Yankees being investigated over possible Judge collusion

You know, when I read the initial SNY piece earlier this month, I figured it was only a matter of time until the MLBPA made a stink. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the union asked MLB to investigate whether Hal Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen had improper talks about Aaron Judge that constitute collusion (i.e. working together to drive down his salary).

Here’s the chunk of the SNY article that caught the union’s attention (emphasis mine):

On that day (Judge rejected the Yankees’ extension offer), Mets sources said that they did not plan to fight the Yankees this offseason for Judge. With free agency set to begin next week, that has not changed.

Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war.

MLB is expected to request email, text, and phone records from Cohen and Steinbrenner. And to be clear, the union asking the league to look into this is not the same thing as filing a grievance. That could come later, and if it does, the MLBPA would have to prove Hal and Cohen damaged Judge’s market. That would be very, very difficult.

Cohen is a known inside trader and Hal runs the Yankees in a very “ugh, do I have to?” way, but I don’t think they explicitly agreed to work together to hurt Judge’s market. Maybe I’m just naive. I guess MLB could find no wrongdoing but still give the Mets and Yankees a token slap on the wrist to keep the union happy? Fine them a million bucks or something? I dunno.

“I’m absolutely confident that the clubs behaved in a way that was consistent with the agreement,” Rob Manfred told Evan Drellich earlier this week. “This was based on a newspaper report. We will put ourselves in a position to demonstrate credibly to the MLBPA that this is not an issue. I’m sure that’s going to be the outcome. But obviously we understand the emotion that surrounds that word (collusion) and we’ll proceed accordingly.”

(I’m looking forward to Manfred’s statement after the investigation is completed: “I have found Hal and Steve did nothing wrong, and this is all Aaron Judge’s fault.”)

Even if there is no collusion per the legal definition and this is two owners deciding independently not to rankle each other with free agent bidding wars, the most generous reading is they put their loyalty to each other over their teams and fan bases. That sucks! The Mets should be all over Judge and the Yankees should in turn go after Jacob deGrom. Owners not wanting to damage their relationship with other owners through free agency. Give me a break.

Hal on Judge

In owner news that doesn’t potentially involve collusion, Hal spoke to Brendan Kuty at the owners meetings earlier this week and said he’s met face-to-face with Judge to convey how much he wants him to remain a Yankee. That is rare. Steinbrenner generally lets his baseball people do the baseball stuff and stays out of the way. He’s very involved here.

Here’s what Hal told Kuty:

“I just want him to know how I felt,” Steinbrenner said. “In case there was any lack of clarity or ambiguity.”

…

“We have plenty of ability to — and Aaron and I talked about this — to make this happen and still have money to make other things happen,” Steinbrenner said while talking at the Owners Meetings at MLB headquarters in midtown Manhattan on Tuesday.

…

“My budget for Judge is going to be what I feel we can do,” he said. “It’s not limitless, obviously. But am I going to make moves before we’re able to — in my opinion, we’re going to be able to sign Aaron. That’s not going to stop me from signing other people.”

…

Obviously, (he’s) very important to our fans and our fanbase and very important to my family and the organization. So, I’ve absolutely conveyed that I want him to be a Yankee for the rest of his life, no doubt about that. He knows that. The rest is up to him and his family and where they want to go from here. But we’re going to do what we can, I assure you.”

There are two ways to look at this. One, Hal is letting other teams know they shouldn’t even bother getting involved, because we’re going to do what it takes to keep Judge. They’ve done this before, most notably with CC Sabathia and Gerrit Cole. Think about how they talked about Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. It was tepid interest. Their intentions are crystal clear with Judge.

And two, the more cynical take is Hal is positioning himself to have an excuse in the event Judge signs elsewhere. “I met with him and was ready to spend, but he just didn’t want to be a Yankee.” That kinda thing. I’d say that’s far-fetched, but the Yankees announced the terms of the extension offer in a pretty transparent attempt to make Judge look greedy ("can you believe he turned down all that money?"). If they’re going to lose Judge, they want to make sure he looks like the bad guy.

In the end, this is a business, and Hal wants Judge back because he makes him gobs of money. And to be fair to the Yankees, they’re talking about Judge in ways they don’t talk about many other free agents. When they want someone – really, really want someone – they make sure everyone knows. That’s what they’ve done here. That’s a good sign.

Yankees reach out to Bogaerts, Correa, Nimmo, Turner

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees have been in contact with free agents Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Brandon Nimmo, and Trea Turner. I assume the Yankees are covering their bases and consider these players backup plans in case Judge signs elsewhere. Signing Judge and Correa or Turner, two $300M-ish contracts, ain’t gonna happen.

Last offseason we could debate the free agent shortstops. Correa or Corey Seager? Marcus Semien or Trevor Story as the No. 3? This year, I think there’s a pretty clear hierarchy:

1. Carlos Correa
2. Trea Turner
3. Xander Bogaerts
4. Dansby Swanson

Correa is the youngest by more than a full year and thus has the most peak years remaining, and he has the longest track record of being above average on both sides of the ball. Turner is right behind Correa (right behind him, but behind him) and then Bogaerts is a little further down because his power vanished this year and his defense has been in decline the last few years.

Swanson is clearly the No. 4 option to me. 2022 was his first above-average offensive season in a full 162-game season and even that came with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 13.9% swinging strike rate. By comparison, Giancarlo Stanton had a 27.1% strikeout rate and 13.1% swinging strike rate last season. There’s also this:

Friends don’t let friends pay for outlier defensive stats. Swanson is very good! He’s a heck of a lot better than what the Yankees ran out there at shortstop this past season. I’m just saying he is easily the No. 4 option among this offseason’s free agent shortstops. This is the contract that is most likely to lead to regret in a few years. Good player. Not a truly great player.

Perhaps the Yankees are showing interest in these players to put a little pressure on Judge, but I don’t think these rumors are loud enough to get his attention. I think this is nothing more than the usual due diligence. The Yankees check in on every notable free agent (and even the not-so-notable free agents) each offseason. For now, this is nothing out of the ordinary.

Verlander wants a Scherzer contract

Earlier this week Astros owner Jim Crane told Brian McTaggart that Justin Verlander is seeking a Max Scherzer contract, meaning a three-year deal with a high salary. This is against the rules! The Collective Bargaining Agreement strictly forbids either side from publicly discussing contract demands. Crane’s comments could, in theory, scare away interested teams and damage Verlander’s market.

(Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the MLBPA could investigate Crane’s comments in addition to the stuff about Hal and Cohen regarding Judge.)

There are indications the Astros might actually allow Verlander to leave, and Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says Verlander “sees the potential” for big contracts with the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and others. Scherzer got three years at a record $43.3M per year at age 37. Verlander turns 40 in February. I know he just won the Cy Young, but I’m not sure he’ll get three years at 40.

The Yankees offered Verlander a one-year, $25M contract last offseason. They wouldn’t budge on any kind of second year. He returned to Houston on a one-year, $25M deal with a $25M player option, which he declined to re-enter free agency. Maybe a guaranteed third year won’t happen, but two years at $45M a year? Yeah, I could see a team going there. It only takes one.

Re-signing Judge and signing Verlander at Scherzer dollars would push the Yankees’ payroll up around $300M, and that’s without doing anything else. Signing Verlander could be contingent on Judge leaving and/or unloading Josh Donaldson’s salary. Or Hal could put his money where his mouth is – “We have plenty of ability to — and Aaron and I talked about this — to make this happen and still have money to make other things happen,” he told Kuty – and raise payroll, and re-sign Judge and sign Verlander and do other stuff. I’m not holding my breath.

Hernandez traded to Mariners

Add another data point to the “relievers are expensive as hell” trend. Earlier this week the Blue Jays traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners for righty reliever Erik Swanson and lefty pitching prospect Adam Macko. It’s one year of Hernandez (at $14M or so) for three years of Swanson, plus a top 10-15 team prospect in Macko.

“Teo has been incredible for us,” Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told Keegan Matheson after the trade. “From 2017 when we acquired him, with the excitement he’s brought to the field, he’s been a huge part of this transition for us going from an interesting team to a contending team. He has a lot of strong relationships here, including one with me. I think the world of him. We will miss him. We got to the point where we thought the acquisitions on the run-prevention side would help us. It does create some flexibility for us as well in terms of resources.”

You may remember Swanson from his time in the Yankees’ farm system. The Yankees got him from the Rangers in the Carlos Beltran trade and then sent him to the Mariners in the James Paxton deal. Swanson, now 29, was excellent in 2022: 1.68 ERA (1.85 FIP) with 34.0% strikeouts and 4.9% walks in 53.2 innings. The under-the-hood numbers were great too:

Swanson’s really good, but three years of a reliever for one year of a middle of the order bat? Sign me up. Hernandez has hit .283/.333/.519 (132 wRC+) with 73 homers in his last 1,300 plate appearances. If you think you can find a guy like that for one year and $14M or so in free agency, I wish you luck. There are more Swansons out there than Teoscars.

(What the Blue Jays do with the money also factors into this – they’ve already been linked to Nimmo – but one year and $14M isn’t that much. FanGraphs has Toronto’s estimated 2023 payroll at $176.2M. There’s no reason that team in that city with that massive media company as an owner couldn’t afford Hernandez, Nimmo, and more.)

Swanson and Macko, a High-A kid with elbow problems who Baseball America (subs. req’d) says has “mid-rotation potential,” for Hernandez leads me to believe my Ron Marinaccio and Will Warren for Josh Rojas trade was an overpay. It’s four years of Rojas vs. one year of Hernandez, yeah, but it’s six years of Marinaccio and a pitching prospect who spent the final three months of 2022 in Double-A. I think I overpaid for Rojas. Whatever.

Anyway, the point is quality bullpen help is very expensive right now, regardless of whether you trade for it or sign it as a free agent. The Blue Jays had to give up Hernandez to get Swanson and the Astros, Mets, and Padres had to pay big to retain Rafael Montero, Edwin Diaz, and Robert Suarez. If I were a rebuilding team, I’d be calling everyone about my relievers right now.

I don’t get the sense the Yankees are looking to add bullpen help this offseason but there’s no reason not to make everyone available. Everyone. Marinaccio, Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, Wandy Peralta, Lou Trivino, etc. Put them out there and see what offers come your way. The Yankees don’t have to trade them and shouldn’t give them away. But with the bullpen market being what it is and the Yankees able to grow relievers, you have to see what’s out there.

Murakami wants to come to MLB

Yakult Swallows slugger Munetaka Murakami wants to come over to MLB and “the sooner the better,” he told the Kyodo News. The 22-year-old lefty swinger hit .318/.458/.711 (241 wRC+) with 56 homers this season, breaking Sadaharu Oh’s long-standing single-season home run record for a Japanese-born player. He also won the Triple Crown. Here’s video.

"Of course I want to try. I don't know how old I'll be, but I'm still young, so the sooner the better. It will involve discussions with (the Swallows), but if I can go, I want to go soon," Murakami told the Kyodo News. "... The challenge (of MLB) is something that I have eventually wanted to take on, if allowed the opportunity.”

Murakami is a monster, both in terms of surface stats and the under-the-hood numbers. His exit velocities are top of the line, he hits to all fields, and he’s cut down significantly on his swing-and-miss and chase rates since his rookie season four years ago. He’s a bat-first player, though he also plays a solid third base. Murakami is the best player in the world outside MLB.

The only Japanese players the Yankees have seriously pursued since Kei Igawa are Masahiro Tanaka (who was 25 at the time) and Shohei Ohtani (23). They’ve targeted the prime-aged stars and passed on the guys approaching 30, like Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida this offseason. Murakami turns 23 in February and he’s a lefty power hitter. He’s right up their alley.

Two obstacles exist. One, the Swallows have to post Murakami. Yakult has a history of posting their best players (most notably Nori Aoki, Kaz Ishii, and Akinori Iwamura), so that’s promising. They still have to go ahead and actually make Murakami available to MLB teams though. I’m not sure when that will happen. Here’s the posting fee structure:

• Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of contract value
• Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of amount over $25M
• Contract worth more than $50M: $9.275M plus 15% of amount over $50M

A hypothetical $150M contract would net the Swallows a $24.275M posting fee. The posting fee doesn’t count against the luxury tax payroll and I believe posting fees over a certain amount can be paid out across two years. That was the case with Tanaka, though the posting system has changed since then. The installment plan may no longer be a thing. Not sure.

And second, Murakami will be subject to the international bonus pool because he is not yet 25 (the same was true for Ohtani a few years ago). Murakami could wait another three years until he’s 25 to come over so he could sign the biggest contract possible, but the whole “the sooner the better thing” makes me think he doesn’t want to wait that long.

The Yankees have the smallest international bonus pool each year because of their market size and they wouldn’t be able to continue adding dollars to their offer until Murakami says yes. They would have to sell Murakami on everything else about the organization, which of course can be done, but their single greatest weapon (money) is taken away. It’s a level playing field, financially.

Given the little I know, Murakami seems like the perfect player for the Yankees. He’s still so very young, he’s a lefty power hitter, and he’d step in at third base, a position that is currently up in the air long-term. When and will Murakami be posted? How much will the level financial playing field hurt the Yankees? Unclear, but Murakami Watch is officially underway.

Miscellany

The Orix Buffaloes will indeed post Yoshida for MLB teams, according to Jason Coskrey. The posting deadline is Dec. 5th. Once he’s posted, Yoshida will have 45 days to negotiate and sign with an MLB team. Here’s what I wrote about the lefty bat control freak earlier this month. The Yankees are said to have interest in Yoshida, though my sense is there are others ahead of them on their preference list, including Andrew Benintendi … Joel Sherman says the Yankees have scouted Senga, including sending their US-based pro scouts to Japan to get more eyes on him, though they do not have a meeting scheduled with Senga at this time. That could change with one phone call. So, we wait.

2. Awards roundup. Awards season is finally over. I think? I guess they still need to announce the Comeback Players of the Year, but the important stuff has already been announced. Here’s what you need to know about the Yankees and this year’s awards finishes.

Judge named AL MVP

File this under things we knew in July: Aaron Judge is the 2022 AL MVP. It's official. He is the 21st Yankee to win MVP and only the second to win Rookie of the Year and MVP as a Yankee, joining the late Thurman Munson. Fun fact: Judge is the tallest MVP ever at 6-foot-7. His teammate, Giancarlo Stanton, was the previous record holder at 6-foot-6.

“On behalf of the entire Yankees organization, I want to congratulate Aaron on winning the American League MVP Award,” Brian Cashman said in a statement. “He was incredible in every facet of the game in 2022 and put up a season that ranks with the very best of all time. Aaron’s success was especially meaningful for our organization as we’ve been able to watch him grow throughout his professional career into the player and leader he has become —an offensive force in the batter’s box, a run preventer wherever we’ve put him in the field and someone who sets the tone in the clubhouse with his relentless commitment to winning. He has been our MVP for quite some time now, and this honor couldn’t be more deserved.”

Judge did not win unanimously. He received 28 of the 30 first place votes (voting). Shohei Ohtani got the other two and they came from the two Los Angeles-based voters. Shades of 2007, when Alex Rodriguez got 28 votes and the two Detroit voters voted for Magglio Ordonez. I honestly don’t care. Judge won MVP decisively. Who cares if it wasn’t unanimous?

I haven’t printed it in a while so I’ll do it again: Judge hit .311/.425/.686 (207 wRC+) with an American League record 62 home runs this season. He did that while playing mostly center field. All together, it works out to +11.4 fWAR and +10.6 bWAR. I watched all 162 games with my own eyes and it’s still almost hard to believe it happened. What a season.

If you’re the grudge-holding type, this should be Judge’s second MVP. He was the runner-up to Jose Altuve in 2017, and of course the 2017 Astros were cheaters. Research has shown Altuve did not receive nearly as many trash can bangs as his teammates, but he knew about it, and his teammates were cheating to get on base in front of him and drive him in behind him, boosting Altuve’s MVP case.

Also, Judge was the better player anyway, and he was far more important to a 91-win Yankees team that snuck into the postseason as a Wild Card team than Altuve was to a 101-win Astros team that won the division by 21 games. Judge should’ve won MVP in 2017 and should’ve made more money through arbitration as a result. He should be a two-time MVP right now. But I digress.

Judge is the 2022 AL MVP and he is also the only Yankee to receive MVP votes. No fun down ballot stuff this year. I was hoping someone would give Matt Carpenter a stray tenth place vote just for the absurdity. Aaron Judge, AL MVP. I like the way it sounds. Now get that man re-signed Yankees and let’s do this again next year.

Cortes (and Cole) gets Cy Young votes

Sandy Alcantara and Justin Verlander won the Cy Young awards this season, both unanimously. It’s only the second time both Cy Youngs were unanimous in the same season: Bob Gibson and Denny McLain did it in 1968. Alcantara is the third Dominican pitcher to win a Cy Young, joining Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez (1997, 1999, 2000) and Bartolo Colon (2005).

Nestor Cortes received three stray fifth place votes (voting) and that warms my heart. Gerrit Cole got a fifth place vote as well, but eh, I don’t care so much about him. Nestor getting Cy Young votes (!) rules so much. The last Yankees pitcher I enjoyed as much as Cortes is Orlando Hernandez. It’s not just that he’s a great pitcher. His starts are an event. Nestor’s FAR (Fun Above Replacement) is through the roof. Nestor Cortes, Cy Young vote-getter. How cool.

No Yankees get Rookie of the Year votes

For the fourth straight season, no Yankees received a Rookie of the Year vote. That’s after having at least the Rookie of the Year runner-up every year from 2016-18 (Gary Sanchez in 2016, Judge in 2017, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres in 2018). This isn’t a surprise. Oswaldo Cabrera led Yankees rookies with +1.9 WAR and he played only 44 games. He was only 11th among AL rookies in WAR, so yeah, no Rookie of the Year votes. Womp womp.

The Yankees’ four-year Rookie of the Year vote drought should – should – end next season. If it doesn’t, it will likely mean either the Yankees did not play Oswald Peraza and/or Anthony Volpe enough, or that Peraza and/or Volpe played poorly, either of which would be bad. I’m not saying they’ll win the award, but as long as one of them plays regularly, I think they’ll play well enough to get a few Rookie of the Year votes. Been a while since the Yankees had an impact rookie. They could use one next year and have candidates. They just have to play them.

(Adley Rutschman was the runner-up to Julio Rodriguez for AL Rookie of the Year and, thanks to the anti-tanking measures in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, he is credited with a full year of service time despite not getting called up until May. Rutschman is a year closer to free agency. Sucks for you, Orioles. Should’ve called him up sooner.)

Boone gets Manager of the Year votes

Aaron Boone did something this year he failed to do the last two years: get Manager of the Year votes (voting). Specifically, Boone received one second place vote and one third place vote, both from the two Los Angeles-based voters. Huh. 2020-21 was the first time the Yankees went back-to-back years without a single Manager of the Year vote since 1989-90. The drought is over. History with an exclamation point.

I don’t have anything more to say about Boone getting Manager of the Year votes, but it’s kinda weird Buck Showalter won NL Manager of the Year after the Mets blew a 10.5-game division lead, isn’t it? It’s the third largest blown division lead in baseball history:

1. 1951 Dodgers: 13 games
2. 1995 Angels: 11 games
3. 2022 Mets: 10.5 games

The Yankees erased a 14-game deficit to win the AL East in 1978, though they were in fourth place at the time. The Red Sox never led the division by more than 10 games that year. Anyway, kinda weird you can win Manager of the Year after blowing that big a division lead, no? Wouldn’t it be more appropriate to give the award to the manager who overcame the 10.5-game deficit?

Media folks have been talking about Showalter being the right guy to turn the Mets around since Spring Training. Feels like they decided they were going to vote for him in March as long as the Mets didn’t go belly up and lose 90+ games or something. Blow a 10.5-game division lead? Who cares, Manager of the Year. What a dumb award.

Yankees win team Gold Glove (?)

Did you know team Gold Gloves are a thing? I had no idea. Rawlings has given them out since 2020 and the Yankees won the AL award this season, it was announced earlier this week. The Cardinals won it in the NL. The Cubs and Cleveland won in 2020, and the Cardinals and Astros won in 2021. Now the Yankees have one as well. How about that?

There is no voting component to the team Gold Gloves. It’s all statistical. From Rawlings:

The Rawlings Gold Glove Team Awards utilize a sabermetric model formulated by the Society of American Baseball Research (SABR) known as the SABR Defensive Index™ (SDI). The SDI draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts. SDI utilizes MLBAM’s Statcast, Sports Information Solutions data, and STATS, LLC data as well as traditional statistics with advanced analysis.

The Yankees led baseball with +129 DRS (the Dodgers were second at +84) and that includes framing. They were fifth in OAA (+21) and second in Defensive Efficiency (.720), which do not include framing. Defensive Efficiency is essentially the percentage of batted balls converted into outs. The Yankees were at 72.0% in 2022. The MLB average is 69.7%. There you go.

Were the Yankees really the best defensive team in the AL this season? I have a hard time taking defensive stats at face value, but there’s no doubt they were significantly improved from previous years, and I do think they were one of the better defensive teams in the league. Now they have a team Gold Glove to make official. Team Gold Gloves. What a thing.

Miscellany

Jose Trevino won the AL Platinum Glove. That is given annually to the best defensive player in the league regardless of position. Nolan Arenado won it in the NL (for the sixth straight season). Platinum Gloves have been around since 2011 and Trevino is the first Yankee to win one, and the first AL catcher to win one. Trevino ranked third among all players with +21 DRS, behind only Ke’Bryan Hayes (+24 DRS) and Brendan Rodgers (+22 DRS). So he was first in the AL. Trevino is really easy to root for and he’s beloved by his teammates. I’m happy he’s received so much recognition this year (voted to the All-Star Game by the players, Gold Glove, Platinum Glove, etc.) ... Judge won the AL Hank Aaron Award. The best hitter in baseball this season (by a lot) won the award given to the best offensive performer in each league. News at 11. Paul Goldschmidt won it in the NL. Judge was also voted the MLBPA’s Player of the Year and AL Outstanding Player. Those are the union’s awards as voted on by the players. "I think there's no bigger award or sense of accomplishment than hearing it from your peers,” Judge said. He filled up the trophy case this year. Time to get paid … And finally, Greg Weissert was named the Triple-A International League Pitcher of the Year. Not Reliever of the Year. Pitcher of the Year. Weissert is the first reliever to win the award since Tom Henke in 1985 and the first Yankees minor leaguer to win the award since random Yankee Ed Yarnall in 1999. He had a 1.69 ERA (2.90 FIP) with a 36.8% strikeout rate in 48 innings for the RailRiders this year. Pretty wild that relatively light workload won him the league Pitcher of the Year honors.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The 2024 All-Star Game will be played at Globe Life Field in Texas, Rob Manfred announced earlier this week. The most notable things to happen at the three-year old ballpark are the Dodgers winning the 2020 World Series, Corey Kluber and Joe Musgrove throwing no-hitters, and Aaron Judge hitting his 62nd home run. Lots of history and somehow the Rangers were either not involved or on the wrong end of all it. Here are the upcoming All-Star Game locations:

• 2023: T-Mobile Park
• 2024: Globe Life Field
• 2025: open
• 2026: Citizens Bank Park (to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence)
• 2027 and beyond: open

Wrigley Field hasn’t hosted an All-Star Game since 1990 and the Cubs finished a $500M renovation a year or two ago, so I imagine they’re coming up soon. The Braves and Truist Park as well. Probably the Orioles and Camden Yards too. They haven’t hosted since 1993. The Yankees last hosted the All-Star Game in 2008, the final season of the old Yankee Stadium. There are a few teams ahead of the Yankees in the queue. The late 2020s and early 2030s is when we can start to wonder when the All-Star Game is coming back to the Bronx … And finally, the guy who caught Judge’s 62nd home run ball turned down a $3M offer and will sell it at auction, reports Jeff Passan. Mark McGwire’s 70th home run ball in 1998 sold for $3.05M. That is the most expensive baseball ever sold at auction. To each his own, but I would’ve taken the $3M and called it a day. Maybe the guy can fetch more than $3M because it’s the Yankees and the New York market and all that. I wish him luck.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Vincent asks: Do you see a reunion with Zack Britton happening? What's a reasonable contract for him (from anyone), coming off of a lost season?

I can definitely see it happening and I think it would happen one of two ways. Either Britton will sign quickly in the early days of the offseason (didn’t happen), or not until pitchers and catchers report to Tampa (could still happen). Maybe it’s a late career Brett Gardner situation where yeah, the Yankees will re-sign him, but it’s the last item on the to-do list. They’ll get around to it eventually.

Britton has made it very clear not only that he wants to remain a Yankee, but that money is not a priority at this point in his career. “(A World Series ring is) really the only goal for me at this stage of my career. I’ve gotten my contract. I am 34 years old. My reasons are much different now than when I was younger,” he said after his season-ending injury.

The Yankees love Britton too. They asked him to stay with the team during the postseason to be a veteran leader type for the bullpen guys, and Brian Cashman praises Britton every chance he gets. At some point you have to move on (like the Yankees did with Gardner), though Britton has spent most of the last two years rehabbing. Why not see what he can do when he’s healthy?

As for a contract, here’s what a few veteran relievers who missed most or all of 2021 received as free agents last offseason. These are all one-year contracts:

• Trevor Rosenthal: $4.5M (0 IP in 2021)
• David Robertson: $3.5M (12 IP in 2021)
• Matt Strahm: $3M (6.2 IP in 2021)
• Darren O’Day: $1M (10.2 IP in 2021)

Rosenthal and Strahm are several years younger than Britton and O’Day is several years older. Robertson is the best comparison for Britton as a mid-30s guy who’s closed, set up, the works. I know Britton indicated money is not a priority, but he is on the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee. Those hardcore union guys always go for top dollar. Maybe he squeezes the Yankees for $5M+, especially with the current bullpen market?

On paper, the Yankees have enough bullpen depth to move on from Britton. I think the mutual lovefest and the likelihood of a cheap contract points to a reunion. There is no such thing as too much pitching and waiting until Spring Training allows the Yankees to delay making a 40-man roster move (they can put Scott Effross on the 60-day injured list as soon as camp opens). I don’t think a reunion is 100% happening. I just think it's more likely than not.

Dan asks: Any interest in stalled Mariners OF prospects (Kelenic, Lewis, Trammel)? All 3 are still young and not far removed from top prospect status, and two are LHBs. And I planned to ask BEFORE they added Hernandez. What would they cost and would M’s even listen?

Well, Kyle Lewis is off the table now. The Mariners traded him to the Diamondbacks for utility guy Cooper Hummel on Thursday. Lewis was the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year and he’s played only 54 games the last two years because of various injuries, and hasn’t played well when healthy. As a strikeout-prone righty (29.3% in 2020). Lewis didn’t make much sense for the Yankees. The D-Backs are looking for righty bats and they got one. They’ll trade an outfielder soon.

The Mariners are in quite the predicament with the other two. Taylor Trammell has a 36.6% strikeout rate and 18.3% swinging strike rate in 295 MLB plate appearances. You need Joey Gallo's power and defense to make that play, and Trammel doesn’t have it (though he is a solid defender). He has some thump and can play a good enough center field, and that’s it. Approach issues have always held him back.

As for Jarred Kelenic, there are major red flags. He has extreme swing-and-miss issues against non-fastballs, even at the Triple-A level, and that weakness is easily exploited. In terms of chase and whiff rates, he's in the same territory as Brandon Wood through 500 career plate appearances. I can’t find a top 10-ish prospect who was this bad this early in his career (.168/.251/.338 and 68 wRC+), then figured it out and went on to have a long career.

The most optimistic outlook for Kelenic at this point might be the Jackie Bradley Jr. or Aaron Hicks career path. They were both very, very bad early in their careers as well. The difference is Bradley still provided top of the line center field defense, and Hicks has never swung and missed as much as Kelenic. Even early in his career, he had single-digit swinging strike rates. Kelenic doesn’t have Bradley’s defense or Hicks’ contact ability to fall back on.

Sometimes a change of scenery helps and new coaches could get Kelenic on track. He is only 23. You’d hate to give up on a player with his pedigree at that age. There are warning signs abound though. Kelenic has tinkered with his swing, changed his stance, all sorts of stuff. The kid isn’t failing because he isn’t trying. He’s working hard and it’s just not coming together. The Mariners send him to Triple-A, he makes an adjustment, he comes back up, and he still fails. It’s happened several times now. It’s really been rough.

I don’t envy the Mariners. Kelenic and Trammel are still relatively young and were highly regarded prospects not too long ago. You’d hate to give up on them, but also they’re trying to win a championship, right? How long do you wait for Kelenic to learn how to barrel up something that isn’t straight? GM Jerry Dipoto indicated he’s still looking for outfield help even after the Teoscar Hernandez trade, so it doesn’t seem like they’re counting on Kelenic or Trammel going into 2023.

As for the Yankees, I love buying low on talented players, but I’m not sure they could go into 2023 with Kelenic or Trammell penciled in as the left fielder. There’s just way too much risk (if you want a lefty with swing-and-miss issues like Kelenic and Trammell, why not give Estevan Florial a shot? he’ll at least play great defense). Trade for one of them, then send him to Triple-A and hope the minor league hitting gurus can fix him? Sure. But Plan A in left field? Not for me.

Bob asks: Given that Severino, Montas and German are all free agents after 2023 would it make sense for cost and roster certainty to sign Taillon, if he would take a reasonable contract(3/$39?), and trade Montas or even Severino this offseason?

The Yankees have Domingo German another two years, not one. Frankie Montas and Luis Severino will be free agents next offseason though.

Anyway, three years and $39M is the contract the Angels just gave Tyler Anderson, and while he was much better than Jameson Taillon in 2022, their underlying numbers the last two seasons are similar, and Taillon is two years younger. Three years and $39M is a reasonable contract for Taillon. The 2021-22 numbers:

To answer the question, I am not against bringing in a starter with control beyond 2023 and then trading Montas or Severino. The plan depends on two things. First and foremost, can we do better than Taillon as the long-term rotation piece? I like Jamo, but I’d prefer someone with more high-end ability. Carlos Rodon? Trade for Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber? Trevor Rogers?

And second, what are we getting in return for Montas or Severino? Here are three starters who were traded one year prior to free agency in recent years:

• Chris Bassitt (Athletics to Mets): Traded for a top 10 team prospect (RHP J.T. Ginn) and an MLB-ready top 20 team prospect (RHP Adam Oller).
• Lance Lynn (Rangers to White Sox): Traded for an MLB-ready top 10 team prospect (RHP Dane Dunning) and a top 30 team prospect (LHP Avery Weems).
• Sean Manaea (Athletics to Padres): Traded for a top 10 team prospect (SS Euribiel Angeles) and an MLB-ready top 20 team prospect (Adrian Martinez, this guy).

Hey, nice consensus there. Recent trades suggest the Yankees should expect two prospects for Montas or Severino, one of whom is among the 10 best in the other team’s farm system and one of whom is ready to step right into the big leagues. Depending on the prospects, yeah, that could make sense for the Yankees. Net a building block outfielder or third baseman? Sure.

One potential issue is only contenders will want Montas or Severino given the one year of control, so you’d be trading with a team you could run into in the postseason, or even have to compete with for a postseason spot during the regular season. Bassitt, Lynn, and Manaea were all on rebuilding teams. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker – if you believe a trade makes you better, make it and don't worry about who you're trading with – it's just that it’s not often two contenders match up for a meaningful trade.

Another possibility is Montas or Severino for one year of a position player, like one year of Rick Porcello for one year of Yoenis Cespedes back in the day. Severino for Ian Happ? Montas for Max Kepler? I’m not against this plan (obviously I’d prefer to trade Montas than Severino). Finding a long-term rotation replacement and a sensible trade partner would take work though.

Matthew asks: Assuming he re-signs, I think there’s a conversation to be had about moving Judge to LF. He was able to handle CF for much of last season so why can’t he take over LF in Yankee Stadium? With the Yankees 3 year luxury tax reset cycle coming to an end they might be willing to load up on 1 year contracts and blow through the threshold this year. Moving Judge to LF could open the possibility of signing guys like Carpenter and Brantley to 1 year deals and letting the two of them and Giancarlo rotate between RF and DH, while covering for the inevitable injuries. I just think moving Judge to LF would raise the possible offensive ceiling of this team. What do you think?

Aaron Judge has played a grand total of seven games (63 innings) in left field in his career, all in Triple-A and all in 2016. I’m sure he’d be able to do it. Give him a Spring Training to adjust and I think Judge would be more than fine in left field. And left field is the big part of Yankee Stadium. You want a good defender out there and Judge is a good defender.

I think exposing Judge to left field would be a smart move. It doesn’t have to be a permanent shift – he could go back to right field in 2024 or 2025 – and it would open the door for the Yankees to pursue bat-first outfielders with sketchy defense. They could stick them in right field, the tiny part of Yankee Stadium. Matthew mentioned Matt Carpenter and Michael Brantley. Brandon Drury could work too, or a trade for Anthony Santander and his two years of control.

The Yankees were willing to put Judge in center field last season. Asking him to move over to left is not crazy. I’m certain he’d be willing to do it. Bottom line, anything that puts the Yankees in better position to improve the team and win more games should be considered. This isn’t some far-fetched idea like putting Lyle Overbay in right. Judge is left is entirely reasonable.

Dan asks: How about a Gary Sanchez reunion, either as a backup catcher or 1B/DH if the Yankees don't bring Carpenter back?

Not happening. The Yankees are too all-in on defense to put Sanchez behind the plate again and, at this point, his bat isn’t playing at first base or DH. Gary hit .205/.282/.377 (89 wRC+) this year and has hit .204/.294/.399 (94 wRC+) the last two years. He has to catch to have value. They say you can’t predict baseball, but I am 100% confident predicting there will be no Yankees/Sanchez reunion next season. Maybe it happens down the line, never say never, but it’s definitely not happening in 2023.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)