November 4th, 2022: Aaron Hicks Trade, Mailbag

The Yankees finally put the 2004 Red Sox highlights away and will hold their end-of-season press conferences with Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman on Friday. Cashman’s contract expired on Oct. 31st, so the fact the Yankees are trotting him out there to represent the organization tells you he either has a new contract, or will soon. There might be some actual news Friday (DJ LeMahieu foot surgery?), otherwise it’ll be the standard fare (we would like to re-sign Aaron Judge, we’ll explore all avenues to improve, etc.). Let’s get to today’s post. Nothing happened in Yankeeland this week, so I used this as an opportunity to empty out the mailbag inbox.

1. Scouting the Trade Market: Aaron Hicks salary dump. The Yankees have a daunting task this offseason. They have to find ways to improve the roster while also cleaning up some of the mistakes already on the roster, including Aaron Hicks. Hicks slashed .216/.330/.313 (90 wRC+) with declining defense in 2022, and he’s still signed through 2025.

“I don’t know (what my future holds). The Yankees are gonna have to make a decision and I’ll wait for whatever happens. It’s not really my call,” Hicks told Dan Martin in September. “... Things are tough in New York. I don’t have an answer. If they feel this isn’t the right fit for me, that’s their call. If I do go to another team, I know I can help them win.”

I am confident Hicks, now 33, will be traded away no later than next year’s trade deadline. I say that because Hicks will reach 10 years of service time in August, at which point he’ll pick up 10-and-5 no-trade protection and control his destiny. The Yankees won’t let that happen. They want full control over the trade decision. Here’s what’s left on Hicks’ contract:

• 2023: $10.5M salary ($10M luxury tax hit)
• 2024: $9.5M salary ($10M luxury tax hit)
• 2025: $9.5M salary ($10M luxury tax hit)
• 2026: $12.5M club option with $1M buyout ($0 luxury tax hit)
• $1M trade bonus

Assuming the club option is declined and he’s traded, Hicks is owed $31.5M in real dollars from 2023-25. And really, $10.5M a year isn’t much these days. Alex Cobb and Eduardo Escobar got multiple years at $10M a pop last offseason. James McCann got four years at $10.15M the offseason before that. Right now, $10.5M buys you a little more than +1 WAR in free agency.

That said, $10.5M a year is a lot of real money, particularly when you don’t want the player. It is money that can be better spent in other ways and that is true regardless of whether you’re running an $85M payroll or a $270M payroll. For the Yankees, Hicks doesn’t project to serve much of a purpose moving forward, so they’ll look to move him this offseason.

How exactly they move him is the great unknown and there are several different ways it can be done. Straight salary dump? Bad contract for bad contract? Something else entirely? Let’s dig through the different ways the Yankees could potentially unload Hicks and reallocate some or all of the $31.5M he has coming to him the next three seasons.

Even money trade

Essentially a single bad contract for a single bad contract. The money matches up perfectly, or is close enough to matching up that bridging the gap is a piece of cake, and the two teams swap headaches. The Astros and Braves did this at the deadline with Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith trade. My spare part that fits your need for your spare part that fits my need, basically.

Hicks having three years remaining on his contract makes this challenging (it’s easier to do the bad contract for bad contract thing when both players have one year left on their deals) but it’s not impossible. I can find two possible fits for a 1-for-1 headache-for-headache trade.

Steven Matz, Cardinals: Admit it, the Yankees trading an outfielder to the Cardinals for a lefty starter only a few months after sending a lefty starter to St. Louis for an outfielder would be kinda funny. Hicks-for-Matz would be less impactful than Harrison Bader-for-Jordan Montgomery, but it still would be funny. Here’s what’s left on Matz’s contract:

• 2023: $10M salary ($11.3M luxury tax hit)
• 2024: $12M salary ($11.3M luxury tax hit)
• 2025: $12M salary ($11.3M luxury tax hit)

Matz is owed $34M in real dollars and the Yankees would absorb an additional $1.3M in luxury tax hit each year from 2023-25, so it’s not a total financial wash, but it’s close. The 31-year-old threw 48 innings with a 5.25 ERA (3.78 FIP) around shoulder and knee issues in 2022. The shoulder issue was minor, then Matz tore a ligament in his knee when he slipped fielding a ground ball in July. He returned as a reliever in September because there wasn’t time to stretch him out to start.

On one hand the Cardinals have a rotation surplus, at least on paper: Matz, Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, and Adam Wainwright. That’s six established big league starters with top prospect Matthew Liberatore knocking on the door (he made seven spot starts this past season). St. Louis is one of the few teams with the depth to trade a starter.

On the other hand Flaherty, Mikolas, and Montgomery will become free agents after next season and Wainwright will retire. They’ll need arms in 2024 and Matz is signed for another three seasons. On a third mutant hand, is Matz the kinda guy you keep because you’re going to need starters in two years? Probably not. I seriously doubt he’s off-limits.

The Yankees could add Matz, who was quite good with the Blue Jays in 2021, to their fifth starter mix alongside Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt. The hangup here is the Cardinals don’t need outfielders (there’s a reason Bader was expendable). They’re locked into Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Lars Nootbaar as their starters, plus top prospect Alec Burleson made his MLB debut in September. He figures to assume a larger role next year.

Perhaps the move for the Cardinals is trading one of those outfielders (O’Neill because he’s closest to free agency?) for a better starter than Matz, then flipping Matz for Hicks and using Hicks as the fourth outfielder? I dunno. The Hicks and Matz money and years mostly line up. The motivations to make the swap, not so much.

Avisail Garcia, Marlins: The Marlins finally decided to spend money last offseason and for some reason they gave it to Garcia. He hit .224/.266/.317 (66 wRC+) around a hamstring injury in 2022 and he’s had an every other year thing going on throughout his career: 138 wRC+ in 2017, 92 wRC+ in 2018, 113 wRC+ in 2019, 83 wRC+ in 2020, 116 wRC+ in 2021, and 66 wRC+ in 2022. He’s due for a good year in 2023! That’s how this works, right?

Miami owes Garcia $12M a year for the next three years with a $5M buyout of his 2026 club option, so it’s $41M in real money and a $13.7M luxury tax. That’s quite a bit more than Hicks and I have no doubt the Marlins would love to dump the cash. For the Yankees, taking on the extra money wouldn’t be a big deal if you could plop Garcia in left field and consider the position solved. I don’t think you can. Is he a reasonable bet to outperform Hicks from 2023-25? Eh.

Hicks-for-Garcia gives me “making a move just to make a move” vibes. The Yankees would still be left with a question mark in left field and, even if the Marlins eat money to even things out, they would be no better off financially. I don’t think it’s difficult to see why Hicks-for-Matz would have some appeal for the Yankees. Hicks-for-Garcia is a tougher sell.

Salary consolidation trade

There are reasons to believe the Yankees operate on a three-year cycle with regard to the luxury tax. They went under the threshold in 2018 and 2021, and the fact the two biggest contracts they added to the books last offseason (Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo*) are set to expire after 2023 suggests they at least want to be in position to get under the threshold in 2024.

* Rizzo has his opt out and might sign an extension, but the original two-year deal would have been off the books after next season no matter what had the contract gone sour.

Hicks carries a $10M luxury tax hit each of the next three seasons and if the Yankees want to put themselves in the best possible position to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2024 (or just get rid of the headache as soon as possible), they could consolidate Hicks’ money into 2023. Trade his three years and $31.5M for a player(s) with one year and $31.5M or so remaining on his deal. Something along those lines.

There is precedent for such a trade. In Dec. 2017 the Dodgers traded Brandon McCarthy, Adrian Gonzalez, and Scott Kazmir (and Charlie Culberson) to the Braves for Matt Kemp. The money was a wash, but Kemp’s salary was spread across two years while the others were owed their money in 2018. The trade allowed Los Angeles to spread the money out to lower the luxury tax burden while the then-rebuilding Braves got the money off their books as quickly as possible.

A consolidation trade with Hicks would be similar to what the Dodgers did with that trade, just in reverse. Instead of spreading the luxury tax burden across multiple years, the Yankees would load it up in 2023, then have it off the books completely come 2024. And the trade partner would get to spread that $31.5M out across three years. That could aid their luxury tax situation, or sit well with a frugal owner. Here are some possible consolidation trade candidates.

Yasmani Grandal and Joe Kelly, White Sox: The White Sox ran a $193.4M payroll in 2022, the largest payroll in franchise history by roughly $65M, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t about to let that happen again. Not after an 81-81 season. Heart and soul player Jose Abreu will be allowed to leave as a free agent and the clamps may be put on any other spending.

Grandal was shockingly bad in 2022, hitting .202/.301/.269 (69 wRC+) with five homers and the worst defensive numbers of his career. Just a year ago he slashed .240/.420/.520 (158 wRC+) with 23 homers. Grandal didn’t strike out, swing and miss, or put the ball on ground any more than usual. Even his exit velocity remained above average and in line with his career norms. For whatever reason, the ball just stopped leaving the yard.

Joe Kelly is Joe Kelly. He has Great Stuff™ and sexy underlying numbers (29.3% strikeouts and 61.4% grounders the last two years), yet always seems to find a way to give up the yams (6.08 ERA in 2022). Kelly has the kinda arm you can dream on and every team thinks they can fix him, then they get him and it’s like yeah, this is Joe Kelly alright. Here’s the money situation:

• 2023: Grandal $18.25M and Kelly $9M ($28.25M combined luxury tax hit)
• 2024: Kelly $9.5M club option with $1M buyout ($0 luxury tax hit)

The dollars match closely and the Yankees would pile it all into 2023, giving themselves a clean luxury tax slate (with regards to Hicks’ money) come 2024. The White Sox would spread the money across three years rather than one, giving them more breathing room under whatever Reinsdorf’s payroll mandate is in 2023. In that division, there’s no reason not to try to improve and make a run, and this gives the White Sox more payroll flexibility to improve.

There’s baseball reasons to make this trade too. Seby Zavala began to take playing time away from Grandal in the second half and the White Sox don’t have a right fielder. Gavin Sheets is a replacement level player and Andrew Vaughn will now move to his natural first base position with Abreu set to leave. The trade gives Chicago a real outfielder and clears a path for Zavala, and also gives them payroll wiggle room in the short-term.

For the Yankees, Grandal would be a bounceback candidate behind the plate (bringing a guy with HR/FB% issues to Yankee Stadium seems wise) who is a viable starter if he does in fact bounce back. Even with the down year, Grandal’s defensive ratings were on par with Kyle Higashioka’s, and Grandal at least gives you a chance at an above average season at the plate. And if he is in fact a pumpkin at age 34, Grandal is essentially a more expensive Higashioka for one year.

As for Kelly, the Yankees could either stick him in the bullpen or flip him elsewhere. Attach a good but not great prospect to him a la the Adam Ottavino trade and get that money off the books. The Yankees would unload Hicks, maybe get an upgrade behind the plate without major downgrade potential, add a lottery ticket arm, and have all that money come off the books after next year.

Jake Odorizzi, Manny Pina, and Eddie Rosario, Braves: Talk about spare parts. As good as the Braves are – and they’re very good – these three sit in their 20th to 26th roster spot range and they’re all making decent money. You can afford to overpay role players when your core is locked up so affordably, but still, these three are not exactly linchpins.

Odorizzi is no better than Atlanta’s fifth best starter and he might be their ninth best starter depending on Mike Soroka’s health, Ian Anderson’s ability to bounce back, and how MLB-ready youngsters Bryce Elder and Kyle Muller take to the big leagues. Pina missed most of 2022 with a wrist injury and is now third on the catcher depth chart after William Contreras’ breakout. The Braves have to figure out left field with or without Rosario. He was very bad in 2023.

I mentioned earlier the Braves made one of these salary consolidation trades with the Dodgers a few years ago, though in that trade they were the team that pushed the money into one year rather than spread it across multiple years. They were rebuilding at the time. Now they’re in their World Series window, and the flexibility of spreading the money out can help them improve the team in 2023. Here’s the money remaining:

• 2023: Odorizzi $12.5M, Rosario $9M, Pina $4.5M ($26M combined luxury tax hit)
• 2024: Rosario $9M club option and Pina $4M club option (no buyouts) ($0 luxury tax hit)

(Odorizzi’s $12.5M comes in the form of a player option with a $6.25M buyout, so it’s a $6.25M decision. There’s a chance he declines that and tests the market, but for our purposes, I’m going to assume he picks up the player option.)

There’s a $5.5M difference in total money owed and that’s large enough that the two sides would probably have to address it somehow, but also not so large that it would derail the trade. Atlanta gets some payroll flexibility this year and clears some roster spots, and even if they don’t consider Hicks a viable starting left fielder, they get a fourth outfielder out of it. They don’t even have that right now.

The Yankees would add Odorizzi to their fifth starter/swingman collection, get a platoon candidate for left field, and a walks/power/framing backup catcher. Rosario was really bad this past season (.212/.259/.328 and 61 wRC+ around an eye issue) and his defense is close to unplayable, so there’s a chance Hicks is the superior player. Is getting Odorizzi and Pina and a favorable luxury tax situation after 2023 worth it? I dunno, maybe.

Joey Votto, Reds: There is one year remaining on the long-term contract Votto signed in 2012 and, at age 39, it seems likely 2023 will be the final season of his career. Votto has $32M coming to him next year between his salary ($25M) and option buyout ($7M), and wouldn’t you know it, that matches up almost perfectly with the $31.5M Hicks is owed the next three seasons.

The series of events that leads to Votto in pinstripes looks like this:

• Rizzo leaves and the Yankees want to replace him with a similar veteran lefty hitter on a short-term commitment.
• Votto decides he wants to spend his final MLB season chasing a ring rather than sitting through another rebuilding year.
• Votto uses his 10-and-5 rights to say he’ll accept a trade to the Yankees and only the Yankees, sapping Cincinnati’s leverage.

Votto was very bad last season, hitting .205/.319/.370 (92 wRC+) with 11 homers in 91 games while playing through a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery in August. The most optimistic 2023 outlook is the shoulder is healthy and Votto is rejuvenated by playing in a postseason race, and has a huge farewell season a la Albert Pujols. Would be neat, no?

There’s no reason for the Reds to want Hicks (wouldn’t you rather just keep the franchise icon and clear the money after 2023?) but Votto could force their hand. No one likes dealing with an unhappy star. Also, Reds ownership is incredibly cheap and might prefer spreading that money across three years anyway. (I should note this also applies to Miguel Cabrera and the $32M he is owed in 2023, though he can’t play the field anymore and the Yankees don’t need a DH.)

Salary offset

Imagine a world where the Yankees make a blockbuster trade this offseason. Chances are this would only happen if Aaron Judge signs elsewhere, but let’s say that happens, and the Yankees look to do something big to grab headlines, kinda like when they replaced Robinson Cano with Jacoby Ellsbury. And that headline-grabber involves taking on a lot of money. In that case, Hicks could be sent the other way to offset salary.

Think Starlin Castro in the Giancarlo Stanton trade. The Marlins didn’t want Castro, but they had to take him to get the trade done and dump the rest of Stanton’s contract. The Yankees included Castro in the trade just to lessen the financial burden. The savings were relatively small (about $22M across two years) but the savings were real nonetheless. Hicks can be this offseason’s Castro. Who could be this offseason's Stanton? Here are a few possible blockbuster trade targets.

Kris Bryant, Rockies: Pretty amazing Bryant signed with Colorado and then everyone just kinda forgot about him. To be fair, he was limited to 42 games by a foot injury this year, but in those 42 games he hit .306/.376/.475 (125 wRC+). Only five homers though, including zero (!) in Coors Field. Here is the money left on Bryant’s deal:

• 2023: $27M
• 2024: $27M
• 2025-28: $26M annually
• Luxury tax hit: $26.3M per year

Include Hicks in the trade and, for luxury tax purposes, it offsets $10M a year from 2024-25. And you know what? Bryant wouldn’t be a terrible backup plan should Judge leave. The Yankees can put him in left field or at third base if they’re able to dump Donaldson. Bryant has rated very well wherever he’s played defensively and is quite versatile.

With his 31st birthday coming up in January, Bryant should still have several productive years ahead of him. I’m not saying I want the Yankees to trade for Bryant! I’m just saying I could see him as a fallback plan if Judge bolts, and you don’t have to try too hard to see how it would make sense for the Yankees.

Anthony Rendon, Angels: The Angels would probably give Rendon away. Injuries, most notably wrist and hip surgeries, have limited him to 105 games the last two seasons and in those 105 games he hit .235/.328/.381 (98 wRC+) with 11 homers. When healthy, Rendon is a star and a high contact bat, but he’s also going to turn 33 in June. He’s likely had his best years already.

Rendon has four years and an evenly distributed $152M remaining on his contract, which is a $38M luxury tax hit. Package Donaldson and Hicks and you not only offset $60.5M of that $152M, but just about Rendon’s entire salary in 2023 as well. To be clear, I don’t think the Yankees would do this. I think they’d steer clear of Rendon. I’m just using him as a salary offset example.

Christian Yelich, Brewers: I have no idea what happened to Yelich and neither do the Brewers or Yelich himself. He was arguably the best hitter in the game from 2018-19, and now he’s a low-power/on-base guy: .252/.355/.383 (111 wRC+) with 14 homers in 2022. Yelich’s defense has also slipped to the point where it’s average. For all intents and purposes, he’s now a league average left fielder, and has been since 2020.

Milwaukee ripped up the final two years of Yelich’s previous contract and gave him a new nine-year, $215M deal in March 2020, right before the pandemic and right before his performance cratered. For the small market Brewers, a team that has had a $100M+ payroll only four times in franchise history, spending this on a league average left fielder is a killer:

• 2023-28: $26M annually
• 2029: $20M mutual option with $6.5M buyout
• Luxury tax hit: $27.1M per year

You can talk yourself into Yelich making sense for the Yankees. He turns 31 in December, so he isn’t over the hill, and he still gets on base a bunch and puts up much better than league average exit velocities. Put him in Yankee Stadium and the power could return. He probably won’t ever be a 40-homer guy again, but 25+ the next few years? Yeah, maybe.

They would never admit it publicly, but I think the Brewers would jump at the chance to unload Yelich’s contract, and I don’t think they’d balk at taking back Hicks and his money to get it done. Using Hicks as a salary offset to get someone like Bryant or Rendon or Yelich is way one to get rid of him, though a move like this would be about so much more than simply dumping Hicks.

Partial salary dump

The salary offset scenario I just laid out above? This is that but in reverse. Some other team says fine, we’ll take Hicks and his money, but you need to take back this player and his money. The Yankees dump Hicks and his entire contract, but take back some bad money to make it happen. Not ideal, but quite possibly the best of a bad situation. Some candidates:

Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: The Yankees had interest in Ahmed years ago and it would never be easier to get him than right now. The 32-year-old slick fielding shortstop missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury that required surgery, giving rookie Geraldo Perdomo a chance to play. Perdomo bombed spectacularly (.195/.285/.262 and 58 wRC+ in exactly 500 plate appearances), but there is little chance Ahmed will part of the next contending D’Backs team. Perdomo might.

Arizona owes Ahmed $10M next season. The problem here is the last thing they need is another outfielder. Daulton Varsho (+4.9 WAR) and Jake McCarthy (+2.4 WAR) were productive this past season, top prospects Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll got their feet wet, and there are a few others in Triple-A who are close to MLB ready too. If anything, the Yankees should talk to the D’Backs about acquiring one of their extra outfielders, not sending them Hicks.

Maybe this is a three-team scenario then? The Yankees send Hicks to a third team, third team sends whatever to the D’Backs, and the D’Backs send Ahmed to the Yankees. That is much more plausible than Hicks-for-Ahmed straight up, and it still isn't all that plausible.

Drew Pomeranz, Padres: Pomeranz has not pitched in an MLB game since last August due to a flexor injury that required surgery last offseason, and it flared up again this year. He made five minor league rehab appearances this August before having to shut it down again. The Padres expect him to be ready for Spring Training 2023, but who really knows.

Even with his flexor acting up, the soon-to-be 34-year-old Pomeranz ran a 31.1% strikeout rate from 2019-21, and the Yankees could use another bat-misser in the bullpen. Pomeranz has one year and $10M remaining on his contract and the Padres do need an outfielder. The 2023 money is a wash and San Diego trades a reliever with major injury risk (Pomeranz has a long injury history and is liable to throw zero innings again in 2023) for a change of scenery outfielder.

Randal Grichuk, Rockies: When in doubt, call the Rockies. They’re the team most likely to do something that doesn’t make sense to anyone else. Grichuk slashed .259/.299/.425 (88 wRC+) this past season, including .205/.257/.326 (63 wRC+) away from Coors Field, and he’s got $9.3M coming to him in 2023. Between Hicks and Grichuk, Grichuk is the lesser of two evils, so if the Rockies are open to it, yeah, go ahead.

Pure salary dump

This strikes me as the most likely outcome. The Yankees attach something of value to Hicks, be it a prospect(s) or even an MLB roster player (remember the Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson for nothing in particular trade?), and dump as much of his contract as possible. Ideally all of it, but that may not happen. The Yankees still may need to eat a chunk of Hicks’ salary.

There have been several of these “player and a prospect for nothing” salary dump trades over the years and the Yankees themselves have made a few. Here’s a roundup:

Bronson Arroyo: This one happened a long time ago now. In June 2015 the D’Backs traded Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to the Braves for Phil Gosselin. Arroyo was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time and had roughly $10M remaining on his contract (he never actually pitched for Atlanta). Toussaint was the No. 16 pick in the 2014 draft and FanGraphs ranked him as a 50 future value prospect (on the 20-80 scouting scale) at the time. Gosselin was a throw-in utility guy.

Zack Cozart: To clear money for their Rendon and Gerrit Cole pursuits, the Angels traded Cozart and Will Wilson, the No. 15 pick in the previous year’s draft, to the Giants for a player to be named later that became a non-prospect who was out of the organization within a year. San Francisco ate the entire $12.7M owed to Cozart and FanGraphs ranked Wilson as a 45 FV prospect at the time.

Chase Headley: As part of their efforts to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold in 2018, the Yankees sent Headley and Bryan Mitchell to the Padres for Jabari Blash, who was out of the organization less than three months later. Headley had $13M remaining on his contract. Mitchell had already graduated from prospect status, but FanGraphs ranked him as a 35 FV the last time he was a prospect. I remember being stunned the Yankees had to attach so little to dump Headley’s money. San Diego must’ve loved Mitchell.

Adam Ottavino: Fun fact: The Yankees ate $850,000 of Ottavino’s salary as part of the trade. They sent Ottavino and righty Frank German, a 40 FV prospect per FanGraphs, to the Red Sox for literally nothing in return, and freed up $8.15M in luxury tax payroll space. The four salary dump trades, recapped:

• $10M for a 50 FV prospect (Arroyo)
• $12.7M for a 45 FV prospect (Cozart)
• $13M for a 35 FV prospect (Headley)
• $8.15M for a 40 FV prospect (Ottavino)

Prospect valuation is subjective, plus $1 to the Yankees is not the same as $1 to other teams. Arroyo’s $10M was 11.4% of Arizona’s payroll in 2015. Headley’s $13M was 6.6% of the Yankees’ payroll in 2018. The Yankees can plausibly say they aren’t desperate to dump Hicks' money, giving them some leverage and perhaps saving them from giving up their better prospects.

Just kinda eyeballing those four trades, it looks like one 45 FV prospect for every $10M dumped? Here are the Yankees prospects FanGraphs currently ranks as 45 FV: Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Spencer Jones, Drew Thorpe, Trey Sweeney, Austin Wells, and Alex Vargas. Imagine the reaction if the Yankees trade Jones, Sweeney, and Wells (i.e. their last three first round picks) just to unload Hicks and the $31.5M remaining on his contract. I’m pretty sure Yankees fans would burn the internet to the ground.

I have no idea what shape the Hicks trade will take but I think it’s coming this offseason. The Yankees don’t want him and they definitely don’t want to keep him long enough for his 10-and-5 rights to kick in next summer. It’ll be easier to move him in the offseason than at the trade deadline, before teams spend their money, so I think Hicks goes sooner rather than later.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. Gold Glove winners were announced earlier this week. Why they announced them in the middle of the World Series instead of the week after the World Series like always, I do not know. Anyway, Jose Trevino won the Gold Glove at catcher and DJ LeMahieu won the new super utility Gold Glove. Trevino definitely deserved it, at least statistically. He joins Elston Howard (1963-64) and Thurman Munson (1973-75) as the only Yankees catchers to win a Gold Glove. As for LeMahieu, here’s what MLB says about the super utility Gold Glove:

To identify the utility Award winners, Rawlings collaborated with SABR to create a specialized defensive formula separate from the traditional selection process for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award position winners. Utilizing the SABR formula and additional defensive statistics, Rawlings selected one utility winner from each League.

Sounds like there was no manager/coach voting component for the super utility guy. It was all statistics. Anyway, it’s hard to quibble with LeMahieu. He played three positions regularly and played them well. Not sure what more you want from a super utility guy. Trevino and LeMahieu are the first players to spend the full season with the Yankees and win a Gold Glove since Brett Gardner in 2016 (Joey Gallo won a Gold Glove last year, but he was only a Yankee for two months). Andrew Benintendi (lost to Steven Kwan), Anthony Rizzo (lost to Vlad Guerrero Jr.), and Jameson Taillon (lost to Shane Bieber) were finalists at their positions, but didn’t win Gold Gloves. And that’s all I have to say about that.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brian asks: Given how mortal the Astros seem in World Series play, what’s the best explanation of their dominance over the Yankees: (a) they match up better; (b) the Yankees choke; (d) the Astros are emotionally spent by the Yankees series (a la the 2003 Yankees); (e) other?

I think it’s (a) more than anything. The Yankees generally pitch the Astros very well. Contact management types (like Ranger Suarez in World Series Game 3) tend to fare well against Houston because the Astros are not going to strike out anyway, so it's best to focus on limiting the damage on contact, and the Yankees have a bunch of those contact management types. The Yankees played 11 games against the Astros in 2022 and they held them to four runs or fewer seven times (and three runs or fewer six times). I wouldn’t call that dominance, but it is very good and it’s enough to win. The pitching has not been the reason the Yankees keep losing to the Astros. It’s the offense.

We’ve seen the Yankees struggle greatly against power righties for several years now, and not just against the Astros. It happened in the ALDS against the Guardians, all those battles with the Rays, getting shut down by Nathan Eovaldi over and over, etc. The Yankees still have too many swing-and-miss righties and not enough impact lefties, and that plays directly into Houston’s strengths. They can roll out one power righty after another, night after night.

(“Power righties” is an oversimplification. On a granular level, it’s the specific combination of velocity, spin, approach angle, etc. that the Astros build around. Most of their guys throw those high riding fastballs and spin breaking balls like crazy. That works against everyone, there’s a reason the Astros are so good, but the Yankees seem particularly susceptible.)

The Yankees have attempted to address these matchup issues. They brought in Andrew Benintendi, Matt Carpenter, Joey Gallo, and Anthony Rizzo to provide lefty thump, but Benintendi and Carpenter got hurt at the worst possible time, and Gallo stunk. Look at the last four World Series winners. They all had a great lefty hitter – a "one of the best hitters of his generation" kinda lefty hitter – anchoring the middle of the lineup. The Yankees haven’t had this kinda lefty in a long, long time:

• 2019: Juan Soto, Nationals
• 2020: Corey Seager, Dodgers
• 2021: Freddie Freeman, Braves
• 2022: Yordan Alvarez, Astros or Bryce Harper, Phillies

(Three of those five players were free agents in recent years and a fourth was traded this past summer, and somehow none are Yankees. It’s remarkable, really.)

The Yankees also brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jose Trevino to give them bat-to-ball righties, but they aren’t good hitters. Those guys were never gonna move the needle much. The Yankees seem to be aware of their susceptibility to power righties and are trying to fix it, but their fixes are not working. The intent to improve is there. This is a results-based business though, and their moves are not getting the desired results. The Astros keep beating the Yankees largely because their pitching matches up very well against the Yankees’ offense.

Rich asks: Been reading that the Dodgers might not tender Cody Bellinger a contract. While there's a lot of bust probability here considering he's been pretty awful of late, would he make sense in the event the Yankees cannot resign Judge?

MLBTR projects an $18.1M salary for Bellinger in 2023 thanks to his early career MVP and all that. He’s been dreadful the last two years: .193/.256/.355 (69 wRC+) with a 27.1% strikeout rate in exactly 900 plate appearances. For reference, Joey Gallo had an 82 wRC+ as a Yankee this past season. Bellinger has been even worse than Gallo the last two years.

Bellinger turned only 27 in July and he’s a constant tinkerer. His struggles the last two seasons are not due to a lack of effort. The guy breaks out a new stance and new mechanics every other week it seems. Going from a bona fide MVP caliber producer to a replacement level hitter at this age is basically unprecedented. Bellinger’s offensive collapse is historic. His center field defense is still very good, enough to put him over +1 WAR in 2022, but he’s just stopped hitting.

I actually think Bellinger makes more sense for the Yankees if they re-sign Aaron Judge, and less sense if they don’t. For all intents and purposes, Judge is irreplaceable, and if he does leave the Yankees would have to upgrade 2-3(-4?) positions to get their heads back above water. They’re going to need more sure thing producers in that case, not lottery tickets. Yeah, Bellinger has MVP upside, but we haven’t seen that guy since 2019. If a team as smart and successful as the Dodgers can’t get him right, who can?

But, if Judge does come back, the Yankees would be in better position to roll the dice on a lottery ticket guy like Bellinger, and see whether they can unlock him in a way the Dodgers have been unable the last two years. Sometimes a guy just needs a change of scenery. New team, new coaches, etc. I think Bellinger is too big a risk to count on him even partially replacing Judge. If he gets non-tendered – if the Dodgers give up on a homegrown 27-year-old former MVP with immense talent – it will be a huge red flag.

Will asks: Is Estevan Florial out of options? I can't see the Yankees carrying both him and Hicks on the roster next year particularly with Cabrera being a more versatile option.

Florial is out of minor league options and I don’t think he has much of a future with the Yankees. History says players with a 30% strikeout rate in Triple-A aren’t going to fare well in the big leagues, and not only did Florial run a 30.4% strikeout rate with Scranton this year, he was repeating the level and had a 30.9% strikeout rate there last year. There was no improvement.

There’s enough prospect pedigree and secondary skills (defense, speed, power when he does make contact, etc.) that Florial will continue getting chances for the foreseeable future, and he is capable of carving out a career as a fourth outfielder/platoon type. The Yankees could carry him as a backup center fielder/bench guy next year. It will take a pretty significant improvement in pitch recognition to become more than that in New York, I think.

That said, I don’t think the Yankees are in a rush to trade Florial. If push comes to shove and they need 40-man roster space this winter, yeah, he will find himself in the chopping block at some point, but I think they hope to hang onto him throughout the winter and bring him to Spring Training. At that point they can see what’s what, whether anyone gets hurt in camp, etc.

Chris asks: My question is about Severino's future. Obviously he only has 1 year left on his contract, but I feel like it's not hard to squint and see a Zack Wheeler-esque career path. Should the Yankees consider offering a contract extension while Severino's value is still a bit tepid? What would it take to get this done?

I think Jameson Taillon has a better claim to the Wheeler path than Luis Severino. Taillon and Wheeler both had several major arm injuries early in their careers, then stayed healthy and pitched well in the two years leading up to free agency, and they hit the market with that “this guy has untapped potential and can get better” vibe. Wheeler’s power stuff was more impressive than Taillon’s and he hit a market when he was a year younger, but the similarities exist.

As for Severino, it’s really hard to gauge his value because he’s missed so much time the last few years, but he’s also been so good when he’s actually on the field. He’s almost like the pitcher version of Byron Buxton. If Severino manages to stay healthy and throw something like 175 innings in 2023, then yeah, the Wheeler comparison would fit. If not, Severino is more like a Lance McCullers Jr. type. Great when healthy but not healthy often.

McCullers signed a five-year, $85M extension last spring, as he was about to enter his final season before free agency. Historically, players who sign extensions the year before free agency get free agent dollars. There’s no discount. Severino now is a year older than McCullers was then, but the McCullers deal seems it's in the ballpark, no?

Whether the Yankees go for $17M a year for five years is another matter. I can see both sides of this argument. Severino’s great and he’s a homegrown Yankee, and that’s the kinda pitcher the Yankees would keep. Plus they can obviously afford it. At the same time, the Yankees just gave Severino a four-year contract and he threw 120 innings during the four years. They know his medicals better than anyone. There are reasons to fret over Severino’s health.

Right now I think Wheeler is too lofty a comparison for Severino because Wheeler did throw 377.2 innings in the two years leading up to free agency. It was the 12th most innings in baseball those two years. Severino has not yet answered the bell like that. There’s enough injury risk here that I’m cool with letting him play out 2023, seeing how it goes, then figuring out an extension after the season. If it costs another $5M a year or whatever, so be it.

Daniel asks: You are Aaron Judge, and your agent just told you the Yankees won’t re-sign you. Assuming dollars are all equal, what team would you most like to sign with, and why?

Why wouldn’t it be the Dodgers? They’re a great team, they give you a chance to win the World Series every year, the Giants help satisfy any cravings for an intense rivalry, their fans are everywhere, and you get to play in a huge market with an iconic franchise in an iconic ballpark. Playing alongisde Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, and getting to watch Clayton Kershaw finish out his Hall of Fame career, ain’t a bad way to go through life. Assuming the dollars are equal, I’d go Dodgers. My next pick would probably be … the Mets? Yeah, I’d go Mets over Giants and Padres, but I’m not set in stone on that. The Dodgers are my No. 1 pick though. If I can’t be a career Yankee, I’d go be a Dodgers mercenary.

Sam asks: I assume your offseason plan starts with signing Judge and goes from there. Are you planning on doing an offseason plan where Judge walks? So much of the offseason hinges on that one move, I wonder what the plan would be if he does leave. Sign Correa and try to trade for Reynolds? Presumably that would include Volpe and more. Or do you keep your prospects and go with an offseason around Correa and Nimmo to fill out the outfield?

Other than saying I am not as far along with it as I would like to be due to my own laziness, I’m not going to spoil the Offseason Plan and reveal anything. As far as replacing Aaron Judge, I see two options, similar to the two Sam alluded to:

1. Sign Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo to fill out the outfield.
2. Sign Carlos Correa, then trade the shortstop prospects for outfield help.

(Signing Correa and Nimmo or Benintendi would be cool. I just can’t see the Yankees going there. Correa will get a huge contract and neither of the two outfielders will be cheap either. This feels like a “one long-term deal only” kinda offseason, with the one earmarked for Judge.)

The worst contracts are not big contracts for stars. The worst contracts are long deals for good but not truly great players. Think Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Heyward, Eric Hosmer, etc. Those are the deals that really wreck your payroll and clog up the roster. Great players can disappoint, sure, but they’re less likely to be complete albatrosses.

I would prefer Option 2 for that reason. Giving Benintendi and Nimmo something like 4-6 years each is ripe for regret. And hey, maybe it’s worth it to get the production upfront and maximize the window to win while Gerrit Cole’s in his prime. I would just rather sink my money into Correa, who is a legit star at a critical position and who just turned 28 in September.

Of course, Option 2 is a two-parter, and who are we trading our shortstop prospects for? I’m a Bryan Reynolds guy and he would be awesome. Would the White Sox talk Luis Robert if we put Anthony Volpe on the table? Chicago really disappointed this year. Maybe they’re looking to shake things up a bit. What about my guy Daulton Varsho? He’s gonna be an All-Star in 2023.

This offseason will be challenging enough. The Yankees have some holes to fill and some problems on the roster they need to clean up. Judge leaving on top of that would be a nightmare. He can’t be replaced, not by a single player, so the Yankees would have to upgrade multiple positions just to get back to where they were. I’d start with Correa and go from there, but there is a strong case to be made for starting with Benintendi and Nimmo instead.

Scott asks: Looking at the current Yankee roster for who might have trade value made me think, should we trade Nestor? He’s a fan favorite, but he’s not getting younger and might be a player you can get value from before seeing a reversion to the mean on performance. I’m sure the rest of the league has the same views, so perhaps his value isn’t that high, but it would be great if we could find an RA Dickey quality package the Mets got from Toronto. Obviously this leaves us with a hole in the rotation, but if trying to see where we may be able to get value on the roster I have to think somebody might overpay for Nestor.

No! Trade Nestor Cortes and I might check out on the Yankees completely. Okay, I don’t mean that, but Nestor’s my favorite Yankee and one of the few likable players on the roster. Take him away and I would hate it, even if the trade makes perfect baseball sense.

An R.A. Dickey trade would be ideal but Dickey was coming off three ace-caliber seasons at the time (the Mets got Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud as prospects as the headliners in that trade). Nestor’s track record as an above-average pitcher is roughly 1.5 years. Dickey was a year away from free agency at the time of the trade and Cortes is three years away now, so maybe the two extra years of control make up for the short track record?

Does Blake Snell work as a trade benchmark for Cortes? He was up and down with the Rays but had enough success to be considered above average, and he had three years remaining on his contract at the time of the trade. It’s not perfect because Snell had a Cy Young to his name and was making more money than Cortes, but it kinda fits. The Snell trade package:

• C Francisco Mejia: Five years of a young player and recent top 30 prospect in MLB.
• RHP Luis Patino: Top 25 prospect in MLB (nearly MLB ready too).
• RHP Cole Wilcox: Team top 10 prospect.
• C Blake Hunt: Team top 25 prospect.

Is there a team out there willing to give you a young MLB roster player and a top prospect for Nasty Nestor? The Padres could be a fit, coincidentally enough. Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are free agents this offseason, then Snell and Yu Darvish next offseason. There’s not much coming from the farm system, so they need good arms with multiple years of control.

The Dodgers could use a starter too given Walker Buehler’s Tommy John surgery and Tyler Anderson heading out into free agency. Maybe the Angels? They don’t have much in the system to offer (or on the MLB roster, for that matter). White Sox? Giants? I don’t think the Yankees will have much trouble finding suitors for Cortes. The question is what kind of return will he bring? It only takes one team to blow you away with an offer.

The rational half of my brain says yes, explore the market for Cortes and see whether you can use him to improve the roster in other ways. The other half of my brain says if they trade him I will never forgive them. Nestor’s the man and I think he showed this season (including in the postseason) he can be part of a World Series rotation. The Yankees need more players like Cortes, not fewer.

Jon asks: Since the Yankees punted on SS to keep the seat warm for their prospects, how likely is it they start 2023 with Volpe at SS and Peraza at 3B? With the SS talent available, I can’t say I would be thrilled, but I would prefer that to another IKF year.

Two rookie infielders? No chance the Yankees do it. Not unless injuries force their hand in Spring Training and/or April. I could definitely see them going with Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe at shortstop on Opening Day. Sure. But both? Nah. And really, they shouldn’t do that. They’re the Yankees, they can hedge a bit and bring in quality veterans to compete for those jobs.

The Yankees seem stuck in a place where they’re unwilling to trade their best prospects, but also unwilling to give them a real look in the big leagues. It’s almost like they’re afraid they’ll fail and don’t want to risk it. I’m not saying they should rush a kid up just for the sake of playing a kid. But why didn’t Peraza (or even Volpe) get a look at short in September?

Of course, we spent years clamoring for Jesus Montero and Rob Refsnyder and Justin Sheffield, and look how that turned out. Maybe Peraza and Volpe aren’t as good as we think, but in that case, why are they reportedly off-limits in trades? Somehow the top prospects have fallen into a limbo where they’re too good to trade but not good enough to play over Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The Yankees started three players at shortstop in four ALCS games while the two teams in the World Series are playing rookie shortstops. Really hard not to notice the difference there. Two rookie infielders ain’t happening to start 2023. The Yankees seem too risk averse with young players to do that. I can see one rookie infielder, but no way two.

John asks: Mike, if you are Yankee Owner, what is your line in the sand for a Judge contract--the maximum years and dollars you would go?  Or do you have no line and offer Judge a blank check?

My line is years more than dollars (they’re the Yankees, they can afford big salaries), and really, it's best to think about these things in terms of years. It’s about age. Here’s how long several star players with long-term contracts are signed:

• Through age 39: Mookie Betts
• Through age 38: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout
• Through age 37: Gerrit Cole, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Giancarlo Stanton
• Through age 36: Nolan Arenado
• Through age 35: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Julio Rodriguez’s new contract potentially ties him to the Mariners through age 38. The massive 15-year, $440M extension Juan Soto turned down would have taken him through age 38. The extension Aaron Judge turned down in Spring Training would have taken him through his age 37 season. That’s the benchmark here. Star players expect to be signed through ages 37-38.

In a perfect world the Yankees would give Judge something like a 4-5 year with a record annual salary to avoid the ugly decline years later. Those contracts rarely come to pass though. You might see a high-salaried one-year deal (like Carlos Correa), but not 4-5 years. The Dodgers tried it with Harper a few years ago and he said no thanks. Players want the long-term deal.

At this point I have to think eight years is the minimum to get a Judge deal done. That takes him through age 38 like Harper and Trout. He could push for nine years through age 39 because that is how long Betts is signed, though Mookie signed his deal at age 27. The Dodgers bought peak years in bulk with the Betts and the price for those peak years was a contract through age 39.

The thing is, I wouldn’t say no to nine years for Judge. There would have to be some give and take with the annual salary, but am I really gonna say I’ll do eight years but nine is too much? I don’t care too much about the annual salary. $40M a year? Whatever. Fine with me. I would prefer 7-8 years, would live with nine, and draw the line at 10. A 10-year deal locks Judge up through age 40, an age no other recently signed star player is signed through.

Dan asks: Now that Rob Thomson is committed to the Phillies, can you review his background with his Yankees and would he have been a better pick than Aaron Boone?

Thomson has been impressive this postseason, hasn’t he? His bullpen moves (the only moves he really has to make given his lineup) have been aggressive without compromising anyone’s availability the next day. It helps when the relievers all dominate, no one praises the manager for moves when the reliever stinks, but Thomson’s been really good.

Prior to joining the Phillies in 2018 (the year before they hired Joe Girardi), Thomson spent close to three decades with the Yankees, and he did it all. His resume:

• 1990-97: Minor league coach and manager.
• 1998-2003: Moved into the front office and ran player development.
• 2004-07: Special assignment instructor on MLB coaching staff.
• 2008: MLB bench coach.
• 2009-14: MLB third base coach.
• 2015-17: MLB bench coach again.

Thomson was the first person the Yankees interviewed after parting ways with Girardi after 2017. According to Joel Sherman, the Phillies approached him about their bench coach position that offseason and Brian Cashman said they wanted to retain Thomson, but once they hired Boone, Thomson took the Phillies job and served as bench coach under Gabe Kapler and Girardi.

I have no trouble ripping the Yankees when they deserve it and I am no Boone fan, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they made a mistake not giving the job to Thomson in 2018. Who’s to say Thomson now is the Thomson you would have gotten five years ago? People change, people grow, plus the team and the players matter. Thomson may not have connected with that group the way he’s connecting with his Phillies players.

Would I rather have Thomson managing the Yankees than Boone? Sure, and I say that based only on the little I know and see as an outsider. I just don’t think it’s entirely fair to say they should have named Thomson manager five years ago because he’s having success with a different group of players now. Five years is an eternity in baseball. So much has changed since then.

Christopher asks: If the Yankees are going to make us suffer through more IKF and his noodle arm, can they send him to the Gas Station? Have you heard of position players adding velocity?

I’m not sure the Yankees have done it with the Gas Station in Tampa, but position players have definitely gone to pitching labs to improve their arm strength. Anthony Volpe did it last offseason. I know some players (particularly outfielders) with other organizations have done it too. The ability to improve arm strength is a skill the Yankees have, and why wouldn’t they apply it to position players?

Statcast arm strength data is finally available publicly and Kiner-Falefa’s average throw was 81.1 mph this year. That ranked 40th among 50 qualified shortstops (min. 100 throws) and the positional average is 85.9 mph. His arm is weak, and he also drops down and throws the ball sidearm. The guy throws sinkers to first base. This is a Ryan Weber pitch:

Kiner-Falefa has always thrown like that. Here are defensive highlights from his 2020 Gold Glove season at third base. Same drop down motion. I’m not sure this is as simple as getting him on a weighted ball program and improving his arm strength. His throwing mechanics need work, and since that’s been his motion for a few years now, it may not be easy to coach it out of him. Either way, Kiner-Falefa’s throwing is an issue. It makes him a defensive liability.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)