Thoughts before Game 3 of the 2022 ALCS

The ALCS resumes Saturday evening at Yankee Stadium and it is as close to a must-win as it gets without being a literal must-win. The Astros are starting Cristian Javier in Game 3. He of course started the combined no-hitter earlier this year. The Yankees then get Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 4, and if they manage a win at some point, they’ll get Justin Verlander again in Game 5. Fun. Here are a few quick thoughts prior to Game 3, plus some postseason-relevant mailbag questions.

1. The path to a Game 3 win. The ALCS shifts to Yankee Stadium for Games 3 and 4 (and hopefully 5), and the Yankees have won 59 times in 84 tries in the Bronx this year. They’re built for their home ballpark and Yankee Stadium can be intimidating in the postseason, though the Astros have been unphased by the taunts and booing the last few years.

The Yankees lost two close games to open the ALCS, the kinda games where you can point to one or two things that swung the game in the other team’s favor. A loss is a loss, but these haven’t been 1996 World Series style blowouts. Remember that? The Yankees were outscored 16-1 in Games 1 and 2 (at home) that year. Then they won four straight and the series.

Half of me is grouchy and annoyed, and the other half understands the Yankees weren’t run out of the building in Games 1 and 2. They’re in a hole now, no doubt, but at least I can see some reason to believe the Yankees can make this a series. Here are a few things that would get the Yankees moving in the right direction Saturday night.

Get a dominant start from Cole

I mean, duh. This is the 11th time in franchise history the Yankees lost the first two games of a best-of-seven series. They came back to win four of the previous 10, which is a really good rate considering teams with a 2-0 lead win the series 85% of the time, historically. In all four of those 2-0 series comeback wins, the Yankees got a great start in Game 3:

• Whitey Ford in 1956 World Series: 9 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2BB, 7 K
• Don Larsen in 1958 World Series: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K
• Ron Guidry in 1978 World Series: 9 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 7 BB, 4 K
• David Cone in 1996 World Series: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K

Allowing three runs might be enough to lose Game 3. It was enough to lose Games 1 and 2, and enough to lose Game 2 of the ALDS as well. Maybe the offense finally breaks out and the Yankees can win with mediocre starting pitching, but I wouldn’t count on it. The Yankees are in trouble if Gerrit Cole is short of great in Game 3.

“Regardless if it's 2-0 or if it's 1-1 or it's 0-2, it can't affect the way I go about my business,” Cole said Thursday. “We all have a job to do. We play each and every game in and of itself, play each and every pitch within each and every game until there's no more pitches to play, win or lose.”

Here’s the other thing: Cole being excellent in Game 3 may not be enough. He faced the Astros once during the regular season, striking out eight in seven innings of one-run ball on June 25th. Cole and the Yankees also took the loss because the Astros threw a combined no-hitter. All Cole can do is his part. Excellence in Game 3 is Step 1 toward having a chance in the series.

(This also applies to Nestor Cortes in Game 4, of course. One game at a time though.)

Judge must make a difference

Through seven postseason games Aaron Judge is 5-for-28 (.179) with two home runs and 12 strikeouts, though the first two ALCS games have not featured whiff-filled at-bats like the ALDS. Judge has struck out just once in the ALCS, and it was a called strike three. He’s missed three times on 15 swings in the ALCS (20%). It was 41% in the ALDS. The Guardians, man.

• Judge vs. Cleveland in postseason: .122/.232/.327 and 55.6 K% in 56 PA
• Judge vs. all others in postseason: .263/.353/.553 and 28.1 K% in 133 PA

Dating back to the regular season Judge is in a 13-for-65 (.200) skid with 27 strikeouts. When he was chasing his 61st and 62nd home runs, there were times he was obviously pressing and trying to hit a homer, and maybe he developed some bad habits. I dunno. Point is, Judge has not done much this postseason or over the last calendar month. It’s a problem.

I don’t think Judge is far off. He hit a rocket to the warning track in center field in his first at-bat in Game 2, then he hit that ball to the top of the wall in right that Kyle Tucker caught. Judge is taking good swings and driving the ball. The results just haven’t been there yet. This hasn’t been the ALDS where he was taking feeble at-bats and looking helpless at times.

That all said, this is a result-based business and Judge isn’t getting results. That the Yankees are where they are (four wins away from the World Series!) without him contributing much is rather incredible. There is no chance – and I mean zero – the Yankees can beat the Astros four times in the next five games with Judge being a bystander though. It’s time to put the Superman cape back on.

The bottom of the lineup has to do something

Jose Altuve is 0-for-23 this postseason. It is the longest hitless streak to begin a postseason in baseball history. Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker are 2-for-20 in the ALCS. Outside of that costly Alex Bregman homer in Game 2, the Yankees have done fine work handling Houston’s top bats. They keep letting the bottom of the order make hay though.

Just look at the 8-9 hitters through seven postseason games:

• Yankees: 5-for-42 (.119) with 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 18 K, 1 HBP (.140 OBP)
• Opponents: 11-for-45 (.244) with 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP (.360 OBP)

The double and the homer were both Oswaldo Cabrera in ALDS Game 3. Other than Cabrera that night, the 8-9 hitters have been no-shows. Essentially zero contribution offensively from the bottom of the lineup. That means no sneak attack runs to add on and no runners on base when the lineup flips over. It’s like a National League lineup before the universal DH.

On the flip side, Yankees pitchers are not taking advantage of those ostensibly easy outs in the 8-9 spots. Those guys are Major Leaguers, sure, but it was Austin Hedges and Myles Straw in the ALDS, and Chas McCormick and Martin Maldonado in the ALCS. This isn’t the 2009 Yankees with Nick Swisher batting eighth, yet a .360 OBP allowed through seven games. I hate it.

McCormick and Maldonado have helped Houston overcome Altuve, Alvarez, and Tucker being quiet these first two games. The Yankees really need something like that to have a chance at a comeback, whether it’s a catcher running into a homer or the shortstop du jour finding a gap for a double. You can overcome two dead lineup spots during the long 162-game regular season (the Yankees did it all year). Against the Astros in October? No. Everyone has to chip in.

Get a little lucky

It’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s best to be lucky and good. The Yankees could really use some breaks. A favorable call in a 3-2 count, a weak grounder hugging the line and staying fair, a ball hitting the third baseman and deflecting right to the shortstop, that kinda thing. Every World Series winner has caught a break somewhere along the line. The Yankees could use theirs right now.

2. Update on Game 4 weather. Sunday night’s forecast is improving but it’s still not great. Here is the latest for Game 4:

There are no more scheduled off-days this series. In the event of a rainout, MLB would have to push everything back a day, which potentially means playing ALCS Game 7 one day and World Series Game 1 the next. Like I said last time though, a Game 4 postponement would help the Yankees because it would allow them to push Jameson Taillon back. To wit:

• Saturday, Game 3: Gerrit Cole (extra rest)
• Sunday: rainout
• Monday, Game 4: Nestor Cortes (extra rest)
• Tuesday, Game 5: Luis Severino (normal rest rather than Taillon)
• Wednesday, Game 6: Cole (short rest)
• Thursday, Game 7: Taillon/all hands on deck game

“Yes. Oh yeah,” Aaron Boone said earlier this week when asked whether Cole pitching on short rest was a possibility this series. The 2-0 series deficit means Game 6 is more likely to be an elimination game than a chance to advance, so yeah, you have to send Cole out there on short rest. The postponement allows the Yankees to start Cole one game earlier.

So we’ll see how the forecast changes over the next 24 hours or so. Right now, it looks a bit messy (but it is improving), and if Game 4 does get rained out, hopefully they don’t make 50,000 people wait three update-less hours before calling it again.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Apparently Harrison Bader did not know he was batting leadoff in Game 2 until a reporter mentioned it to him before the game. Aaron Boone was asked about that and said the lineup is sent to every player after it’s set, and some are more diligent about checking it than others. Here’s what Boone said:

“We send out the lineup ahead of time. Some guys are vigilant at making sure, some guys come in and they just – it's play ball and then look and see where you're at later. That's just an individual thing sometimes.”

I absolutely believe that, and while you could argue being bumped up to leadoff is a significant enough change to deliver the message personally, it didn’t seem to bother Bader. He went 1-for-3 with a walk in Game 2. I’m no Boone fan, but this seems like a nothingburger. I just find it kinda funny whenever he’s asked about a potential failure of communication because being a good communicator was the entire reason he was hired … And finally, kinda crazy the fan who ran on the field in Game 2 managed to not only get to Jose Altuve, but also give him a hug (here’s video), right? Altuve said he felt safe because the guy was wearing an Astros jersey and, uh, that’s not a good reason to actually hug the guy. The Monica Seles attack wasn’t that long ago. Yankee Stadium security would have had that dude on the ground in like six seconds. They don’t mess around. I reckon MLB and the MLBPA had a little chat with Minute Maid Park security after that.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Jesse asks: Here’s a thought: The Yankees should take Carpenter off the roster. He’s clearly not ready to contribute. Say he’s injured, and replace him with DJ. Even if DJ isn’t all the way right he’s a contact bat is what we need right now. Worst case he’s more likely to get a single as a pinch hitter right now than Carp. Best case you can play him at third over Donaldson. Would the rules allow this? I believe you need to replace an injured player with someone at the same position. Carp and DJ both theoretically play several of the same infield positions, so….

You can only replace players in the middle of a series because of injury, and MLB’s medical director has to sign off on all injury substitutions. Teams can’t make substitutions on their own. Also, when you remove a player from the roster mid-series, he is ineligible for the next series. In that case Matt Carpenter would be done for the postseason and not eligible to play in the World Series, should the Yankees advance.

With the caveat that we don’t really know how healthy DJ LeMahieu is, I think replacing Carpenter with LeMahieu should be considered. Carpenter is 0-for-7 with seven strikeouts in his limited postseason action, and LeMahieu, even while compromised, struck out only once in 18 plate appearances in his late season cameo. He can still get the bat on the ball. Carpenter can’t right now.

There are two key differences between the two. One, Carpenter is healthy and thus more likely to get into a groove and go on a tear. We know LeMahieu isn’t 100% physically. And two, Carpenter is still the better bet to run into a mistake and give you that one big swing. I’m not sure LeMahieu can do much more than find a hole with a ground ball or plop a soft liner in front of an outfielder. Look at his spray chart during his late season cameo:

LeMahieu was healthy enough to take those 18 plate appearances late in the year. Is he healthy enough to pinch-hit once a game? And how close is Carpenter to getting right? It looks like he’s a mile away, but who really knows. He could be a few swings away from getting locked back in and making meaningful contributions.

As an outsider and knowing the little I know about LeMahieu’s health (he must be hurting pretty bad to not be on the ALCS roster), I think replacing Carpenter with LeMahieu is worthwhile. Carpenter still can’t play the field, so the foot isn’t 100%. That might be enough to get the substitution approved. LeMahieu was healthy enough to play late in the season, so I assume he’s healthy enough to pinch-hit now, and he is much more likely to put the bat on the ball.

Contact quality matters more than contact quantity (see: Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s season-long string of tappers to second base), and Carpenter is providing neither. The Yankees have struggled badly with contact this postseason (33.7% strikeout rate) and especially in the ALCS (42.9%), and LeMahieu gives you a much better chance at a ball in play (and thus a good outcome) in what would be a high leverage at-bat given the nature of postseason pinch-hitting.

Brian asks: Would you consider starting Domingo over Taillon since Jamo got no swing and misses in game 1?

For the record Jameson Taillon got four swings and misses (on 31 swings, or 13%) in Game 1, though he did not strike out any of the 20 batters he faced. Anyway, Domingo German is on the postseason roster. He just hasn’t pitched yet. Aaron Boone confirmed German is healthy. They just view him as the long man, I guess in a blowout or deep into extra innings.

“(German's) in the calculations every night, but more of a lengthy role and if I needed something early there,” Boone said after Game 1. “And there's going to come a time where he's going to need to be in there in an important spot in a shorter way, but didn't feel like tonight was that.”

German has not pitched in an actual game since the regular season finale on Oct. 5th, and given the timing, I don’t think he threw a simulated game during the Wild Card Series bye weekend. He likely just went through his usual between-starts routine to ensure he was ready to pitch (and potentially pitch a lot) when the ALDS opened Oct. 11th.

That’s a long way of saying it’s been a long time since German’s pitched in a competitive game and I’m not sure what to expect from him right now. Also, if you’re looking for bat-missing ability, he’s not the best option. His fastball velocity has been down noticeably this season following last year’s shoulder injury …

… and his 19.5% strikeout rate was below the 22.4% league average during the regular season. That said, Taillon’s wasn’t much better (20.7%), and German had the edge in swinging strike rate (11.4% to 9.9%, MLB average is 11.2%). Neither guy misses many bats and neither stands out for their contact management. They’re both more or less average exit velocity/barrel rate guys.

I do think there’s something to be said for the element of surprise. In Game 5, the Astros would get their second look at Taillon in less than a week. German faced Houston in his first game off the injured list back in July, when he wasn’t in midseason form yet (five runs in three innings). It was also three months ago now. German would be a new-ish look.

German hasn’t pitched in close to three weeks, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him, but also when were the Yankees supposed to use him? Bring him into Game 4 of the ALDS just to get him a little work? Maybe Game 1 of the ALCS would have been okay, but that game was winnable, and I am unconvinced German is a better option than Clarke Schmidt and Frankie Montas.

There’s a decent chance Game 5 is a win or go home game for the Yankees, and at the end of the day, I think I’d be more comfortable going with Taillon. I think he’s the better pitcher, German’s been out of action for a while, and I just trust Taillon more. There’s merit to starting German, but I lean toward Taillon. No matter who’s on the mound, Game 5 will be a quick leash start.

(For what it’s worth, Boone said it’s “hard to envision going any other way” than with Taillon in Game 5 earlier this week.)

Nick asks: The strategy of bullpen lanes seemed to work out quite well for the Yankees in the ALDS against Cleveland. Should we be more concerned about having the same reliever face the same batters over the course of a long series? It seems counterintuitive that the Yankees would want to give a tough batter so many looks at the same pitcher.

There is something to this, yes. A few months ago Cameron Grove did the research and found relievers tend to perform worse the more times they face the same hitters in a postseason series even though there’s no change to the quality of their stuff (through fatigue, etc.). Here is his graph:

There are always outliers, like Wandy Peralta facing Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez in all five games of the ALDS and holding them hitless. Overall though, yes, there’s evidence seeing the same reliever over and over in a short period of time gives the hitter an advantage.

And that makes sense, right? The more you see a guy, the more familiar you become with his delivery and stuff, how he’s going to attack you, etc. Relievers are relievers for a reason. They only have so many tricks in the bag. Oddly enough, the familiarity effect doesn’t seem to exist with starting pitchers. It’s there for relievers though.

Does it make sense to stagger relief appearances to avoid the familiarity effect? Jonathan Loaisiga faced Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena in Game 2. Should that lane go to Clay Holmes in Game 3 so Altuve and Pena don’t see Loaisiga again? It comes down to whether the downside of the familiarity effect is greater than the upside of the optimal matchup. I dunno.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)