Thoughts after Game 1 of the 2022 ALCS

Go away, Josh. (Getty).

Hey, the Yankees batted with a lead against the Astros! That lead lasted only six batters, but they had a lead. That’s more than they could say during the regular season. Game 1 was winnable, but alas and alack, the Yankees came out on the wrong side of a close game against the Astros. I feel like I’ve watched that same exact game a couple dozen times the last six years.

Can the Yankees beat the Astros four times in the next six games? Sure. Absolutely. Do I have any faith in them doing it? No, not really. Game 1 was the sum of all fears. The pitching was fine and fine’s not going to cut it, the manager did a few things that made me shake my head, and the parade of power righties shut the offense down. Let’s get to the Game 1 post.

1. X-factors become loss factors. Before Game 1, I listed a few x-factors that may decide the ALCS, and the Yankees did the exact opposite of them. Keep Jeremy Pena off base? He went 3-for-4 with two doubles and a homer. Hard not to notice the juxtaposition of one team playing its talented rookie shortstop and the other sticking with the known mediocrity.

Also, don’t get beat by the bottom of the lineup! The top and middle of the lineup are tough enough. You gotta take those ostensibly easy outs from the 7-8-9 spots. Instead, Houston’s 7-8-9 hitters had three hits and a walk, including Martin Maldonado’s game-tying double in the second and Chas McCormick’s insurance run homer in the sixth. Come ON.

If the Yankees continue to let Pena reach base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman, and if they continue to let the 7-8-9 contribute anything, they’re cooked. Four runs on three solo home runs isn’t a terrible day for the pitching staff, especially since the Yankees went with the B and C crew most of the night, but the guys you can’t let factor into the series did the damage. Sucks.

2. 16 straight retired and 17 strikeouts. The Yankees had chances against Justin Verlander. They put two on with two outs in the first, then Josh Donaldson struck out. Harrison Bader socked a solo homer in the second inning for a 1-0 lead, then the Yankees put runners on second and third with one out in the third. Donaldson and Matt Carpenter struck out to end the threat. Verlander needed 66 pitches to get nine outs. That felt like a win.

Beginning with that three-pitch Donaldson strikeout, Astros pitchers retired 16 straight Yankees, including 12 via strikeout. Verlander settled down and it wasn’t until the Astros took the lead against the bullpen’s underbelly that the Yankees made a move. This is the reality of the Yankees against the Astros in 2022:

• June 23rd: 21 of 22 retired at one point (the one was a walk).
• June 24th: One run on a solo homer.
• June 25th: Combined no-hitter.
• June 26th: No-hitter into the seventh inning.
• June 30th: One run on a solo homer, struck out 11 times.
• July 24th (Game 1): 13 of 14 retired at one point (the one was an infield single).
• July 24th (Game 2): Five runs! Including three against a reliever not on the ALCS roster.
• ALCS Game 1: 16 straight retired at one point, including 12 via strikeouts.

Whenever these teams have played this year, there have been these long stretches in which the Yankees are unable to muster anything. It’s happened again and again and again. Houston’s staff seems specifically designed to shut the Yankees down. Top to bottom it’s hard-throwing righties with velocity and spin, and six years later, the Yankees are still righty heavy and strikeout heavy.

“I thought early we had our chances,” Aaron Boone said after Game 1. “I don't think (Verlander) was real sharp early, but then he kind of dialed it in. He started really executing, staying away from trouble. I thought he spun the ball really well. Again, we feel like we were on the verge of kind of breaking through there early against him and just couldn't quite do it, then he kind of settled in in those middle innings and pitched really well.”

The Astros had fewer swings and misses (11) than the Yankees had strikeouts (17) in Game 1. Three solo homers and two strikeouts. Could you imagine the Yankees having such a game? It would take a minor miracle. (The Yankees have had one HR > K game the last two years.) The Yankees went offense over defense at several spots this year and this was part of the risk. That you wouldn't be able to put anything together when the big bats don't come though.

What do the Yankees do with Donaldson? Both the rest of the postseason and in the offseason? He’s hit .198/.275/.326 (73 wRC+) against righties since coming off the injured list in June and his at-bats are mostly non-competitive. Donaldson did take a walk in the eighth inning to put the tying run on base, so that’s good, but he’s also 4-for-19 with nine strikeouts in the postseason, and he got thrown out at first base on one of the hits because he thought it was a homer.

“I thought he was on some pitches tonight,” Boone said about Donaldson after apparently watching a different game than me. “I thought he had a little bit of a wide zone there. I thought he had a really good at-bat as the tying run there in his last at-bat, laying off some really tough pitches, which is not easy so to do, especially after you've punched a few times, to have the nerve to stay in there and really battled a 3-2 and then take a close pitch. I mean, you're going up against the best right now. They got him a couple times tonight, but he's in the fight.”

Carpenter looks like a hitter who needed a real rehab assignment. He’s 0-for-6 with six strikeouts in the postseason and folks, I think I figured out how the Astros plan to pitch to him:

It was down and in breaking balls all night. Carpenter swung eight times in Game 1 and missed with six of them, all on that down and in breaking ball. He came to the plate representing the go-ahead run in the eight inning, and Ryan Pressly snuffed that right out with a five-breaking ball strikeout. Carpenter at least has the injury and long layoff excuse. Donaldson? Nah. He's just bad, and yet he’s still hitting fifth for some reason. I’m so sick of him.

If Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are mashing, the Yankees are almost unstoppable. If one of them is hitting, they win a lot. If neither is hitting, they’re one of the least threatening offenses in the game. Certainly among postseason teams. Game 1 was close, the Astros got the hits that swung things in their favor, then the Yankees threatened but couldn’t score. The Yankees keep saying they believe they can beat Houston. I suggest they go and do it then, because I’ve seen this movie before, and I know how it ends.

“They're obviously really dynamic,” Boone said about Houston’s pitching staff after Game 1. “Outstanding starting pitching, but can shorten the game with the best of 'em. So we got to find a way to break through against 'em. It's a challenge, but one we look forward to.”

3. ALCS or April? I understand the high leverage relievers have been used a lot lately, but look at this. Is this a winnable ALCS game, or a random game in April?

Clarke Schmidt has been thrown into fire this postseason while Lou Trivino continues to be marginalized. The Yankees got lucky when Schmidt rolled that double play grounder to escape a bases loaded jam in the fifth inning, then he went out for the sixth against the bottom of the lineup, and gave up two homers to righties. He gave up two homers to righties during the regular season.

Trivino finished off the sixth for Schmidt, then apparently a 3-1 game in a hitter friendly park is a good time to see what Frankie Montas has following a shoulder injury and a month-long layoff. Jeremy Pena hit his third pitch onto the train tracks. Ultimately, whoever’s on the mound has to get outs. You’re good enough to be on the ALCS roster. Go do the job and get outs.

But also the Yankees shouldn’t be holding auditions. Why is Montas facing the 2-3-4 hitters in a game that is still within reach? Why is Trivino seemingly behind Schmidt in the Circle of Trust™? Wandy Peralta has pitched a ton lately and Jonathan Loaisiga threw two innings Tuesday. If they were unavailable, I get it, but then you have to deploy Trivino better than that. Annoying.

“You're hoping to carve out some roles for guys, and obviously we're in a situation with what we just went through where the guys we've leaned on heavily are going to be more in winning situations late tonight,” Aaron Boone said after Game 1. “So we knew it was going to be a slog kind of getting through those middle innings.”

4. Rapid fire thoughts. What a tremendous catch by Aaron Judge in the first inning. Saved at least one run, maybe two, with a diving catch in the gap. Jameson Taillon was teetering on the brink of disaster early (he did well to settle down and get into the fifth inning) and Judge made a game-changing play. He is 4-for-24 (.167) this postseason and if he doesn’t start hitting, the Yankees are going home. At least Judge can still impact games in other ways … Is Oswaldo Cabrera hurt? He did run into Aaron Hicks in Game 5 of the ALDS. Otherwise I don’t understand not using him to pinch-hit in the ninth inning. I know Cabrera hasn’t been great this postseason (2-for-19 with 10 strikeouts), but Jose Trevino hit a wall two months ago, yet he hit for himself with two outs in the ninth inning when a baserunner would’ve have flipped the lineup over and brought the tying run to the plate. If Cabrera was healthy and available, letting Trevino hit was managerial indifference bordering on incompetence … Jeremy Pena hit a ball over Giancarlo Stanton’s head in the first inning (Stanton took a weird route, though Statcast had the catch probability at only 25% anyway) but he otherwise caught everything hit his way in his first game in the outfield since July 21st. I’m not sure what good Stanton playing the outfield does if Matt Carpenter doesn’t hit, but at least he can do it … And finally, Aaron Boone said Isiah Kiner-Falefa started Game 1 because Justin Verlander has a bit of a reverse platoon split, which a) is true, and b) leads me to believe he didn’t even consider starting Oswald Peraza at short. They’re both righty hitters and Kiner-Falefa got the start over the rookie. Boone said shortstop will be “an every day decision.” Sure sure.

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