September 27th, 2022: Judge, Cole, Bullpen, Chapman, Awards, Postseason

If you care about such things, ZiPS gives the Yankees the third best World Series odds at 15.0%. Only the Mets (17.7%) and Dodgers (15.4%) are better. Those projections include all the latest injury info, dragging the juggernaut Dodgers (+322 run differential!) down a bit. They’re missing several important pitchers (Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Blake Treinen, etc.). The Yankees entered the season with 5.7% World Series odds. That’s a nice jump during the course of a 162-game season. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees are 15-5 in their last 20 games, dating back to Clay Holmes freezing Yandy Diaz with the tying and winning runs on base. They still have to grind out their wins – those four games against a bad Red Sox team were all closer than I would have liked – but wins are wins, and now the Yankees are on the verge of a division title. A few thoughts on the last few games.

The AL East race

The Yankees blew their first chance to clinch the AL East title Monday night because a) their defense-first shortstop booted a routine double play ball, b) their lineup was shut down by a parade of strikeout righties, and c) for some reason they pitched to Vlad Guerrero Jr. with first base open and the winning run at second base. Very dumb decision, that was.

"Pick your poison," Aaron Boone said (video) about pitching to Vlad Jr. instead of Alejandro Kirk*. But if you fear both hitters equally, wouldn't you just walk one and cut the chances they beat you in half? Why am I trying to rationalize this move?

* Kirk has been very good overall this season, but he’s slipped to .262/.351/.344 (104 wRC+) in the second half after hitting .315/.395/.487 (155 wRC+) in the first half. It’s common for catchers to wear down and perform worse after the All-Star break. As good as Kirk has been overall, I would take my chances with him over Vlad eight days a week and twice on Sundays.

Anyway, the Yankees have two more chances to clinch the division title in Toronto. The clinch scenario is simple: beat the Blue Jays and the Yankees win the AL East and clinch a Wild Card Series bye. That’s all it takes. One win in the next two days. If we’re still talking about this when the next post is published, I’ll get annoyed. For now, Monday night was whatever. Forget it and move on.

Judge vs. History update

Disappointed is not the right word, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little bit bummed Aaron Judge was unable to hit his 61st (and 62nd) home run at home this past weekend. It’ll happen at some point and if it happens in Toronto this week, so be it, but I really hope Judge can do it at Yankee Stadium and experience it with the home crowd. Would be a great capper to an amazing year.

“I’d like to hit. I think anybody would want more at-bats,” Judge said after being stranded on deck by the rain following Sunday’s six-inning win. “But you can ask anybody in that room, we’re excited we came away with a narrow victory, and one win closer to clinching the division.”

The only time I’ve heard Yankee Stadium sound like it did this past weekend was when Derek Jeter was chasing his 3,000th hit. The crowd roared when Judge stepped in the box, went library quiet when the pitcher came set and delivered, then either shrieked when he hit the ball in the air – “Every fly ball, we’re screaming with the fans,” – Nestor Cortes said Sunday – or groaned in disappointment when Judge did anything else (even get a hit). It was quite the soundtrack.

“Maybe the first game at home was a little different, because I didn’t expect that (reaction). I’ve never been in this situation,” Judge said Sunday when asked about the crowd. “But I think after the first game, it’s kind of settled into just thinking of it as a postseason game.”

The Red Sox have nothing to play for and, to their credit, they did not do the cowardly thing and pitch around Judge. They went after him all weekend and held him to 2-for-11 with five walks and five strikeouts in the four games. Judge definitely had pitches to hit this past weekend. Here are the pitch types and locations of his foul balls during the Boston series:

These pitch charts can be deceptive because movement and sequencing affect the hitter’s readiness, but if you watched this weekend, you know Judge missed a few meatballs. Red Sox pitchers left some mistakes over the plate and Judge fouled them away. The pitches where there, the results (i.e. dingers) were not.

It’s easy to say Judge is pressing, and maybe he is, but how can you tell? He’s 5-for-17 (.294) with three doubles, eight walks, and eight strikeouts since hitting his 60th homer. That’s not a slump. That’s just a guy who hasn’t hit a homer in (gasp!) six games*. When Judge begins chasing pitches he doesn’t normally chase and/or show outward frustration, I’ll buy into him pressing.

* In case you’re wondering, Judge’s longest homer drought this year is nine games and 41 plate appearances from Aug. 12th to 22nd. Judge is currently at six games and 25 plate appearances. Speaks to how good he’s been that this feels like a major drought.

Toronto hasn’t clinched a postseason spot yet, so these games matter to the Blue Jays, and as we saw Monday, they will pitch around/intentionally walk Judge as the situation calls for it. I selfishly hope Judge doesn’t go deep in Toronto so I can see him do it next weekend at home, but whenever he gets it, he gets it. It’ll rule either way. If it happens at home, even better. (The Yankees play their final home regular season series this coming weekend, a three-gamer against the Orioles).

As for the Triple Crown, Judge has maintained his massive lead in homers and his less massive (but still sizable) lead in RBI. He and Xander Bogaerts went back and forth in the batting race all weekend. There was a point between Judge’s and Bogaerts’ first and second at-bats Sunday where the difference in the batting race was .00008 points, or one hit every 12,500 at-bats. It’s that close. Here is the updated batting race:

1. Aaron Judge: .31444
2. Luis Arraez: .31298
3. Xander Bogaerts: .31273
4. Several tied at .304

It would positively suck if Judge loses the batting title and thus the Triple Crown because of the fifth decimal point. Yankees pitchers did their part this weekend – Bogaerts went 2-for-11 in the series and one of the two hits was an infield single – and now we just have to hope Judge can out-hit Arraez and Bogaerts the rest of the way. A tall order, but doable.

Cole’s dingeritis

Judge ain’t the only player chasing 61 homers this season. Gerrit Cole allowed two more dingers Friday night, his AL leading 30th and 31st. That’s 10 homers in his last six starts and at least four runs allowed in seven of his last 12 starts. In those 12 starts Cole has a 4.20 ERA (3.75 FIP) with a 1.68 HR/9. That is entirely too many homers and runs allowed in general.

“It’s stunning that they hit his mistakes in the seats this year,” Boone said after the game. “He was so good tonight. That’s what makes it tough. I thought he was as dialed in as you could be. I thought his body language was great all night. I thought his execution on both sides of the plate with his fastball, he wasn’t overthrowing it. I thought he used his curveball really effectively. And he’s a pitch away from just having an awesome outing.”

The all too familiar script the last few weeks is Cole giving up that one back-breaking home run (remember the Sal Perez and Shohei Ohtani homers?) in an otherwise good or even great start. He was great before that Alex Verdugo homer Friday! Then he didn’t get the call on a 1-2 fastball just below the zone with two outs, then left a heater middle-middle …

… and Verdugo turned around 100 mph and parked it in the bullpen*. Cole then gave the umpire an earful and got ejected, and dude, that’s a one-way ticket to the crybaby label. Between that and stuff like the Opening Day Billy Crystal fiasco, Cole is earning a reputation for being unable to handle the tiniest little thing going wrong, then blaming others for his mistakes. It’s a bad look.

“I thought there were several pitches that were on the edge. Sometimes they’re 50/50,” Cole said after the game. “I’ve done a pretty good job in my career of not losing my cool like that. Made it quite a while without an ejection. So I just let the emotions get the better of me.”

* Gotta question the pitch selection there. Verdugo only hits fastballs (.413 wOBA vs. fastballs and .219 wOBA vs. non-fastballs) and they gave him five straight fastballs that at-bat. Doesn’t matter how hard you throw, show it enough and big league hitters will eventually catch up. There have been a few too many questionable pitch selection moments the last few weeks.

Cole has allowed 75 runs this season and 52 – 52! – have come on homers. The MLB average is 40% of runs on homers and Cole is at a not nice 69%*. You can be an ace with a home run rate in the 1.0-1.2 HR/9 range, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have done it for years, but 1.7 HR/9 or so is a real problem, and that’s where Cole is living these days.

* Katie Sharp notes Cole’s 69% is tied for the second highest rate ever (min. 150 innings). Clayton Kershaw was also at 69% in 2017. The all-time leader is Robbie Ray at 73% last year. See? You can still be great and win Cy Youngs with homer issues, but it ain’t easy.

According to Stuff+, a catch-all metric that quantifies a pitcher’s arsenal, Cole has held steady all year in the 125-127 range (i.e. 25-27% better than average, which is top of the line for a starter). His Location+ has held steady too. It’s the same Gerrit Cole! His stuff is still great and there hasn’t been a drastic slip in location, at least based on the numbers.

And that’s what makes this extreme case of dingeritis so confounding and frustrating. It seems like every mistake winds up in the seats. Cole never gets away with a bad pitch that is popped up or even plopped in for a single. No, if he makes a mistake, it’s in the people and runs are on the board. A guy this good shouldn’t be this prone to homers. This is a major problem:

Cole has two regular season starts remaining and that’s not much time to solve a home run problem that hasn’t shown much (any?) signs of improving. Cole’s smart and it’s not like he’s throwing slop, so I’m hopeful he can get his home run rate back down into the 1.2 HR/9 range (where it was last year). Until then, it feels like he’s walking on eggshells every start. I hate it.

“The bottom line is we've got a guy that I feel like is throwing the ball incredibly well right now. He has every capability of going out there and dominating,” Boone said Saturday. “If he executes at a high level he can shut down anyone. He's in that place to do that.”

Britton, Effross, and a leaky bullpen

Welcome back, Zack Britton. Britton made his first MLB appearance in 402 days Saturday and yep, he looked like a pitcher with only a handful of innings under his belt following Tommy John surgery. The velocity and movement were there, the pitch data is in line with the last few years, but the control was scattershot. Five batters and three walks, 19 pitches and seven strikes.

“Very anxious warming up and stuff, so good to get that one out of the way,” Britton said after the game. “Felt fine afterwards, so now it’s about putting together good outings, and improving the command. Stuff was actually okay. It’s about getting back to being who I want to be, throwing late in games and contributing, having good innings.”

Scott Effross returned in Saturday’s game as well – his absence was only 36 days – and he had to wiggle out of trouble in the ninth inning. He threw one live batting practice session and one minor league rehab inning, then was thrown right into a save situation*. Effross walked a batter, hit another, and gave up a single in an 0-2 count. But, in the end, he closed out the game.

“He was doing that before he went down and he did some of it with the Cubs this year,” Boone said about using Effross in the save situation. “He can be in any role. He’s been in some big spots for us and he’ll definitely continue to be in that high-leverage mix.”

* Boone brought Britton and Effross in to face the middle of the Red Sox’s lineup in a close game. I don’t know if those were “the AL East title is in the bag, so let’s throw them right into the fire since we don’t have much time to evaluate them” decisions, or just Boone making dopey moves. Probably not great that it’s hard to differentiate between the two, but I digress.

Boone made it clear this weekend the Yankees do not have a closer. They’ll mix and match in the ninth inning – “It could be a little bit of everyone,” he said Friday – and four different pitchers have recorded the last four saves. Obviously though, some guys are ahead of others in the pecking order. In order of how much the Yankees seem to trust them, I’d rank the relievers like so:

1. Clay Holmes
2. Jonathan Loaisiga
   (gap)
3. Scott Effross
4. Wandy Peralta (when healthy)
   (gap)
5. Lou Trivino
6. Clarke Schmidt
7. Ron Marinaccio
   (gap)
8. Zack Britton
9. Lucas Luetge
   (gap)
10. Aroldis Chapman

Holmes, despite his recent struggles, is getting the ninth inning regularly. Loaisiga is always in high leverage situations. Effross got the save chance Saturday and another important inning Monday. We know Wandy is firmly in the Circle of Trust™. Trivino has morphed into the guy who puts out fires (he’s entered in the middle of an inning with men on base in 10 of his last 14 appearances). Then there’s the kids.

(Schmidt threw an inning Saturday, warmed up and entering the game Sunday right before the tarp was put on the field, then pitched again Monday. That's pretty heavy usage for a dude with a long history of elbow trouble and little experience pitching back-to-back days, no?)

It was telling that Britton (in his first game with his new elbow) and Luetge were brought in to face Boston’s tough lefties Saturday and not Chapman. Those feel like Chapman spots if the Yankees had even a modicum of trust in him. I guess it’s not surprising then that Joel Sherman says the Yankees are “at least contemplating” designating Chapman for assignment*. We’ll see. (More on this in a bit.)

The bullpen has either blown a lead or allowed the other team to take the lead in a tie game in the sixth inning or later in five of the last 10 games. The Yankees came back to win three of those five games, but that is not a tightrope you want to walk. The bullpen letting close games get away is a recipe for a quick October exit. The bullpen has to get sorted out and there’s not much time to do it. I’m more nervous about the bullpen late in the season than I thought I’d be.

“This is an opportunity,” Boone said Saturday. “The reality is, we’ve got really good arms and options down there. And it’s an opportunity for somebody to grab a more significant role moving forward, and we’ve got to do it that way.”

Miscellany

Gleyber Torres hit a home run in a 3-0 count Saturday, the first 3-0 homer by a Yankee since Judge last May 27th. I’m a fan of turning it loose 3-0. Not all the time obviously, but in certain spots, sure, why not? Torres swung 3-0 with two outs and the bases empty. By all means, let it rip in that situation. Anyway, here are Gleyber’s monthly splits:

• April: 94 wRC+
• May: 126 wRC+
• June: 130 wRC+
• July: 134 wRC+
• August: 28 wRC+
• September: 175 wRC+

Perfectly mirrors the Yankees as a team, no? They needed a little time to find themselves in April (started 7-6), dominated the sport from May through July, face planted in August, then did the Undertaker GIF in September.

Torres has been great this month after several ugly weeks in which a lot of bad habits popped back up. Here’s where I point out he is a .325/.413/.575 (165 wRC+) hitter with five home runs in 22 career postseason games. October Gleyber: activate … Cole is up to 244 strikeouts, four behind Ron Guidry’s single-season franchise record (248 in 1978). With two starts remaining, Cole should shatter the record and could finish with 260 strikeouts or so. Cutting down on the homers is a top priority, though breaking the franchise’s single-season strikeout record is still pretty cool and worth celebrating, even in this strikeout happy era … And finally, Boone was ejected for the tenth time this season Friday. He went out to protect Cole after Cole started barking at the umpire, and when you do that, there’s a good chance you’re going to get run. Boone is the first manager to get ejected 10 times in a season since Bobby Cox with the 2007 Braves. Without going back and looking at each one, I reckon most of Boone’s 10 ejections were of the “my team is flat and I need to fire them up” variety during that summer cold spell.

2. On possibly designating Chapman. As noted earlier, Joel Sherman reported over the weekend the Yankees are “at least contemplating” designating Aroldis Chapman for assignment. I’ll believe it when I see it – they’ve given him all year to get right and now they’re going to cut bait with a week to go in the regular season? – but it’s not completely ridiculous.

I have three thoughts on this. First, Chapman has been very bad this season and he’s shown little in the way of progress. He went strikeout, walk, walk with a one-run lead in the eighth inning in his most recent outing and was pulled from the game. Confidence in Chapman is low and his leash is very short. Designating him would not be undeserved. I just feel like I should say that.

Second, who replaces Chapman? This is where I get hung up. Greg Weissert can’t be recalled until this weekend and Wandy Peralta can’t be activated until next week. That leaves three options: activate Miguel Castro, who is essentially a righty Chapman; activate Stephen Ridings, who has thrown two rehab innings after missing most of the season; or give Chapman’s 40-man roster spot to someone like Jimmy Cordero or Tyler Duffey. Eh. Are the Yankees really upgrading?

Third, I think there’s a chance Chapman gets claimed off waivers if the Yankees designate him? They can’t trade him now and he’s not accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A. Either he gets claimed off waivers or he clears and elects free agency. Designating Chapman ends his time in the organization. It’s final. There’s no going back and that factors into the decision.

There’s a week remaining in the season, so the claiming team would only be responsible for $650,000 or so in salary. That’s not that much. Chapman wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason roster with his new team but he could help a team get there. The Phillies jump to mind. They’re fighting for a Wild Card spot and haven’t been to the postseason since 2011. Consider:

• Lefty Brad Hand went on the injured list over the weekend. His regular season is over (he could return for the postseason) and the Phillies now have a lefty void in the bullpen.
• The Phillies always have bullpen problems, don't they? They just called up Chris Devenski, who allowed nine runs in 10.2 innings with the Diamondbacks before getting released.
• Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson is familiar with Chapman from Thomson’s time with the Yankees (they overlapped in 2016 and 2017).

Doesn’t it fit? Philadelphia is already over the luxury tax threshold (barely), so the $650,000 is not going to break their budget. It feels like a classic “grab the big name” Dave Dombrowski move. If not the Phillies, then maybe the Blue Jays? Their postseason spot is pretty secure though. The Brewers could be another possibility, though they operate with a very tight budget. I could see Chapman hooking on somewhere, even as a free agent after he clears waivers.

I think the most likely outcome is the Yankees stick with Chapman through the end of the regular season – again, who’s coming up to replace him? – and continue to use him in lower leverage spots, then leave him off the postseason roster. And if against all odds things click, great! The Yankees can easily fit a dominant Chapman in their postseason bullpen.

The lack of alternatives is the biggest reason I think Chapman sticks around. This isn’t August, when Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt were buried in Triple-A. The Yankees are a win away from clinching all they can clinch, so they’re playing low stakes games. If I’m wrong and they designate Chapman, then I’m wrong. I think the lack of urgency with regard to the standings lead to him hanging around these final nine games.

3. The Yankees and 2022’s major awards. A little more than one week remains in the 2022 regular season and the Yankees have already clinched a postseason spot. They should clinch the AL East and a Wild Card Series bye very soon. It was an up and down season, no doubt about that, but the Yankees are pretty much right where they want to be.

Every year as the season winds down I like to examine the various awards races and suss out where the Yankees fit. I don’t have an awards vote this year (I’ve never had one and I won’t get one anytime soon because the New York BBWAA chapter is huge and the more senior writers get to vote, which is fine with me), so I can talk about this stuff without hiding behind the "I have a vote" curtain.

The Yankees have not had a major award winner since Aaron Judge was the unanimous Rookie of the Year in 2017. Before him, it was Alex Rodriguez as the 2007 MVP. To win a major award, it feels like a Yankee needs to have a season so far beyond everyone else that he can’t be denied like, well, Judge in 2017 and A-Rod in 2007. Close races tend to go to non-Yankees.

Will a Yankee take home any hardware this season? Well, yes. Let’s talk this all out anyway.

Most Valuable Player

A wise man once said you can’t predict baseball, Suzyn, but I can predict baseball: Aaron Judge will win MVP, more likely than not unanimously, and Shohei Ohtani will be the runner-up. The real race is the race for third place. I think I’d go Jose Ramirez over Yordan Alvarez, but Alvarez is deserving too. After them, I guess Julio Rodriguez is the next best candidate?

I do think it’s a bit weird a not insignificant number of people act incredulously when a guy doing what Ohtani’s doing is mentioned as an MVP candidate. That dude is incredible – I have no idea how he remains upright given his workload – and it’s not his fault 24 of his 25 teammates stink and the Angels are out of the race. His numbers:

• Hitter: .271/.357/.530 (145 wRC+), 34 HR, 11 SB in 627 PA (+3.7 WAR)
• Pitcher: 2.47 ERA (2.51 FIP and 163 ERA+), 32.9 K%, 6.8 BB% in 153 IP (+5.4 WAR)

The hitter equivalent is Juan Soto (147 wRC+ in 631 PA) and the pitcher equivalent is Zac Gallen (164 ERA+ in 172 IP). Ohtani has been even better than last season! The WAR leaderboard entering play Monday:

1. Aaron Judge: +9.9 WAR
2. Shohei Ohtani: +9.2 WAR
3. Nolan Arenado: +7.7 WAR
4. Paul Goldschmidt: +7.6 WAR
5. Sandy Alcantara: +7.0 WAR

Adding pitcher WAR and hitter WAR does not fully capture Ohtani’s value because he’s an elite pitcher and an elite hitter rolled into one roster spot. Sure, the Angels waste that extra roster spot, but that’s not Ohtani’s fault. And sure, Ohtani gives back some value by being a DH and requiring a six-man rotation, but he ain’t giving back that much.

The way I see it, Ohtani should be the MVP front runner every season as long as he continues to perform like this, and it will take a historically great and transcendent season to beat him. And guess what? Judge is having that historically great and transcendent season. This isn’t a run of the mill great season*. Judge is breaking records and approaching offensive levels rarely seen.

* Vlad Guerrero Jr. was great last season, but it was the kinda great season we see every year, right? His 166 wRC+ is “only” 26th best in the last 10 non-pandemic seasons, and it’s not like he added a ton of value in the field or on the bases. Judge’s season is far beyond Vlad Jr.’s, which again, was great!

I would vote for Judge and I suspect the vast majority of BBWAA members would also vote for Judge, even those who revere Ohtani. I can’t say for certain it’ll be unanimous but I am certain he’ll win. The numbers are certainly there and the narrative is there too (i.e. the Yankees would not win the division without him), and that's is what it takes to win MVP over a talent like Ohtani.

So, Judge will win MVP. You can take it to the bank. Will any other Yankees get votes? The MVP ballot runs 10 names deep and there are weird down-ballot votes every season. The non-Judge Yankee with the best chance at down ballot MVP votes might’ve been pre-collapse Clay Holmes, but his performance has collapsed, so we can forget about that.

Anthony Rizzo or Gleyber Torres is the best bet to catch a stray vote, possibly Nestor Cortes, but that’s it, right? I can’t see Gerrit Cole getting MVP votes (he got a few last year) and none of the other regular position players deserve consideration. Good chance Judge will be the only Yankee to get MVP votes this year. (A firm handshake to anyone who gives Matt Carpenter a tenth place vote.)

Cy Young

Who’s going to win the Cy Young? I guess Justin Verlander is the front runner. A sub-2.00 ERA will never look out of place atop a Cy Young ballot. Dylan Cease leads AL pitchers in WAR and is top 3-5 in basically everything that matters. Alek Manoah, Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez, and even Ohtani are in the mix too. There isn’t a runaway Cy Young favorite this year.

As for the Yankees, Cole's recent dingeritis takes him out of the running. The Cy Young ballot is five names deep and he might get a stray fifth place vote, but I think it’s more likely he doesn’t get a vote at all. Nestor has been the team’s best pitcher all year, so if any Yankee will get a Cy Young vote, it’s him. That said, he’s a good 40 innings behind the league leaders.

Pre-All-Star break Holmes might’ve gotten some Cy Young consideration. A reliever or two gets a Cy Young vote each year (Liam Hendriks and Raisel Iglesias did last year) but the last few weeks take Holmes out of the running. Good chance no Yankees receive a Cy Young vote this year despite the Yankees ranking second among AL teams in ERA+ and FIP (behind the Astros).

Rookie of the Year

The Yankees had a player finish in the top two of the Rookie of the Year voting every year from 2016-18 (Gary Sanchez in 2016, Judge in 2017, Miguel Andujar in 2018) and haven’t had a player receive a vote in the three years since. Their rookie WAR leaderboard suggests that will again be the case this year:

1. Oswaldo Cabrera: +1.2 WAR
2. Ron Marinaccio: +1.0 WAR
3. Clarke Schmidt: +0.7 WAR
4. Oswald Peraza: +0.4 WAR
5. Scott Effross: +0.2 WAR (not including his +0.8 WAR with the Cubs)
6. Luis Gil: -0.2 WAR
7. Greg Weissert: -0.3 WAR
8. Estevan Florial: -0.5 WAR

The Rookie of the Year ballot only includes three names, so there’s no chance for down ballot weirdness. The Yankees will not have a player get a Rookie of the Year vote for the fourth straight season. It’s fine. Not the end of the world. Hopefully Anthony Volpe changes that next year. (Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman are a lock to finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting.)

Manager of the Year

The Yankees are on pace to win 99 games and if they were a normal 99-win team rather than a team that was on pace to win 120-ish games before cratering for close to three months, I’d say Aaron Boone stood a good chance to be the first Yankee to win Manager of the Year since Joe Torre in 1998. Instead, that three-month nosedive likely cost him the award.

Manager of the Year often goes to the manager of the team that most exceeds expectations and that has to be the Orioles, right? They’re going to clinch a winning record soon and that qualifies as exceeding expectations. I guess that makes Brandon Hyde the favorite. Mariners manager Scott Servais is in the mix here too. Boone could still get votes, something he failed to do the last two years, but it’s hard to see him winning after that prolonged stretch of poor play*.

* The Yankees started 61-23 and are 33-36 since. Flip that – start 33-36 before going on a 61-23 hot streak – and Boone probably wins Manager of the Year in a cakewalk. Sequencing matters.

Comeback Player of the Year

Luis Severino is far and away the Yankees’ best Comeback Player of the Year candidate. The only other candidate is Carpenter, really. It’s all irrelevant though. Verlander is going to win this with ease, and he should. The Comeback Player of the Year ballot includes three names (these ballots are never made public) and I have no idea whether Severino will pull down any second or third place votes. Does it really matter? It does not. Onward.

Gold Gloves

No Yankee has won a Gold Glove since Brett Gardner in 2016 and there’s a real chance that changes this year. Jose Trevino leads the world in every publicly available catching metric …

• Defensive runs saved: +19 (Rutschman is second with +17)
• Baseball Prospectus fielding: +19.2 runs (Tomas Nido is second with +16.1)
• Statcast framing: +14 runs (Jonah Heim is second with +12)

… and while the statistical component is only 25% of the voting, the humans who make up the other 75% (the league’s coaches and managers) presumably use numbers as a guide. The modernization of coaching staffs all but guarantees it. “He’s not hitting enough to win the Gold Glove” is no longer a thing. Trevino has a very good chance to win at catcher.

Elsewhere, Josh Donaldson leads AL third basemen in OAA (+8) and is second in DRS (+8). DJ LeMahieu isn’t far behind him (+4 OAA and +7 DRS at third base). Statistically, Donaldson and Ramon Urias are far ahead of the rest of the league’s third baseman. This could be a case where Donaldson’s name value puts him over the top (plus Urias recently lost the third base job to Gunnar Henderson).

First base defensive stats are not great and they rank Rizzo middle of the pack. He won three straight Gold Gloves from 2018-20 and might’ve won again in 2021 had he not changed leagues at midseason. So, we’ll see. Isiah Kiner-Falefa isn’t winning a Gold Glove* when he shares a league with Carlos Correa (and Jorge Mateo’s weirdly elite defensive stats).

* Kiner-Falefa is the anti-Gio Urshela. Gio was an eye test superstar with crummy defensive numbers. The numbers like Kiner-Falefa (+10 DRS) but good gravy does he flunk the eye test. Every ground ball hit his way makes me nervous.

Judge has played more innings in center field (626.2) than right field (461.2) and will be on the Gold Glove ballot as a center fielder. He is only 12th in the league in center field innings, however. Splitting time between two outfield spots might cost Judge a Gold Glove. Myles Straw has great defensive numbers and is probably the favorite in center. Him or Michael A. Taylor. Bummer for Judge.

Here’s a new thing: Rawlings will introduce a super utility player Gold Glove this season. I have no idea how they’re going to determine who qualifies as a super utility player (X number of innings at least Y different positions?), but they’re giving these away now. From the press release:

"We're thrilled to add a Rawlings Gold Glove Award that recognizes players with the superior defensive ability to play multiple positions," said Mike Thompson, chief marketing officer for Rawlings. "Utility players are some of the most versatile athletes you'll see on the field, and it's time for them to be rewarded for their tremendous defense, alongside position players."

To determine the utility Award winners, Rawlings collaborated with SABR to create a specialized defensive formula separate from the traditional selection process for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award position winners. Utilizing the SABR formula and additional defensive statistics, Rawlings will select one utility winner from each League.

LeMahieu would seem like a candidate for the super utility Gold Glove, no? He’s played 30+ games at each of the three non-shortstop infield positions and he’s played fine defense. The defensive stats love him (+9 DRS and +8 OAA combined at all positions). Joey Wendle is the only other player with at least 30 games at three different infield positions and he plays in the other league.

Other super utility candidates include Aledmys Diaz, Whit Merrifield, Chad Pinder, and Taylor Walls. The great unknown is the requirements. Merrifield has played 76 games at second and 40 in right, and only a handful elsewhere. Walls needs six more games at third to join LeMahieu in the “30+ games at three infield positions” club, though the defensive stats are split on him. Do they meet the "super utility" criteria? Beats me!

Donaldson and Trevino appear to have legitimate Gold Glove cases. Rizzo would get one too. Splitting time between two outfield positions probably hurts Judge, and who knows with this new super utility Gold Glove. LeMahieu seems like a great candidate for it, but we don’t know how Rawlings and MLB are defining “super utility.” I guess we’ll find out in a few weeks.

Silver Sluggers

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Sorry, fell asleep on my keyboard. Does anyone care about Silver Sluggers? Judge will win one and that’s it. There are better candidates at the position for Rizzo (Jose Abreu), Torres (Jose Altuve), and Trevino (Sean Murphy). Judge will win MVP and a few Yankees might take home Gold Gloves. Anything more than a few stray votes in the other races would surprise me.

4. General postseason thoughts. The Yankees clinched a postseason spot last week and one win in the next two days clinches the AL East title and the Wild Card Series bye. Once the Yankees get that wrapped up, we can dive into the postseason roster and all that. For now, I have two bigger picture thoughts on the postseason I want to tackle, so let’s get to them.

The rotation and the wonky schedule

MLB shoehorned the new 12-team postseason format into the existing 10-team postseason schedule and it is all screwy. Rather than the traditional 2-2-1 best-of-five and 2-3-2 best-of-seven formats, the off-days are scattered throughout each series (to stagger the games so the AL and NL aren’t off on the same days, I assume). This is the ALDS schedule:

• Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 11th
• Game 2: Thursday, Oct. 13rd
• Game 3: Saturday, Oct. 15th
• Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 16th (if necessary)
• Game 5: Monday, Oct. 17th (if necessary)

An off-day between Games 1 and 2, another between Games 2 and 3, then Games 3-5 on three consecutive days. Weird! And if you’re a team with an unsettled fourth starter situation (like the Yankees) and you’re contemplating using a starter with a short leash or a full-fledged bullpen game, wouldn’t you do it in Game 2? This is a plausible ALDS rotation:

• Oct. 11th: Gerrit Cole in Game 1
• Oct. 12th: off-day
• Oct. 13th: Short leash starter or bullpen game in Game 2
• Oct. 14th: off-day
• Oct. 15th: Luis Severino or Nestor Cortes in Game 3
• Oct. 16th: Cole on normal rest in Game 4
• Oct. 17th: Severino or Cortes in Game 5

The off-days ensure your bullpen is rested going into Game 2 and will be rested going into Game 3. Like the traditional 2-2-1 formal, this unusual 1-1-3 format forces you to either use a fourth starter/bullpen game or start someone on short rest at some point in the series. You can’t escape it. Game 2 looks like the best game to go with your least reliable starter given the built-in rest. I mean, it’s clearly the best day to do it.

Game 2 is the best day to do it but is it worth doing? That’s the important question. Does starting your fourth best option in Game 2 give you the best chance to win three games before your opponent? What I listed above is a plausible ALDS rotation. So is this:

• Oct. 11th: Cole in Game 1
• Oct. 12th: off-day
• Oct. 13th: Cortes or Severino in Game 2
• Oct. 14th: off-day
• Oct. 15th: Cortes or Severino in Game 3
• Oct. 16th: Cole on normal rest in Game 4
• Oct. 17th: Fourth starter or bullpen game in Game 5 (all hands on deck, really)

The Yankees (and every other team) can push their fourth starter all the way back to Game 5, a game that might not even be played. That would be ideal, avoiding your fourth starter all together without starting any of your top three on short rest. But, if you do get to a Game 5, your pitching could be in bad shape. The bullpen could be taxed, etc.

I don’t know that there’s a right answer here. It depends on your fourth starter candidates (Jameson Taillon was great the other night), how much you trust your bullpen (it’s been iffy lately), how much you trust your manager to pull the right strings (lol), and also the Game 1 outcome. Do you really want to give the ball to your fourth starter down 1-0 in a best-of-five?

I’m a bit old school in that I believe the next game is the most important game in the postseason, and you should always put your best foot forward in an effort to win that game. I’d push the fourth starter back as far as possible. Going fourth starter or bullpen game in Game 2 and losing the series in Games 3 or 4 without Cortes or Severino taking the mound would haunt me.

At the same time, I can understand the big picture “this is the best day to use your fourth starter because there’s so much built-in rest and we can lean on the bullpen” strategy. You don’t have to win one game, you have to win three games, and this potentially sets you up better to win three times in five tries. We’ll find out what the Yankees do soon enough. Some fascinating options.

Is the No. 2 seed more favorable?

This new postseason format is so messed up that, on paper, you’d rather be the third Wild Card team than the second. That is especially true in the National League, where either the Braves or Mets (two likely 100-win teams) will fall into the first Wild Card Spot. Which would you prefer?

• Second Wild Card: Play either the Braves or Mets (NL East runner-up) in the Wild Card Series, then the Dodgers (NL’s best record) in the NLDS.
• Third Wild Card: Play the Cardinals (NL Central winner) in the Wild Card Series, then either the Braves or Mets (NL East winner) in the NLDS.

Any team can beat any other team on any night (or in a short series) in this game, but goodness, I know which I’d prefer. Having to go through the Braves/Mets and Dodgers is a nightmare. MLB is not reseeding teams after the Wild Card Series and these are the scenarios it creates. The third Wild Card team should not have an easier road than the second. I mean, come on.

Anyway, soon the Astros will clinch the league’s best record and the Yankees will clinch the AL East, and once that happens, this will be their postseason outlooks:

• Astros (No. 1 seed): Play one of the Blue Jays, Mariners, or Rays in the ALDS.
• Yankees (No. 2 seed): Play the Guardians or one the Blue Jays, Mariners, or Rays in the ALDS.

Cleveland is pretty good (they are 16-2 in their last 18 games, so they’ve played very well the last few weeks) but I think we can all agree they’re a notch below the Blue Jays and Rays, and possibly the Mariners too. Their records, run differentials, and underlying stats all say so. And that’s not even taking into account the AL Central being the division of frauds. I can’t take those teams seriously.

The Astros, the No. 1 seed by virtue of having the league’s best record, will definitely face one of the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rays (i.e. an actual Wild Card team) in the ALDS. The Yankees, the No. 2 seed because they’re the division winner with the second best record, could avoid those teams all together and instead play Cleveland (as long as Cleveland wins the Wild Card Series). I would prefer that, yes. Anything can happen, yeah yeah yeah, but give me the Guardians.

MLB could solve all this by reseeding teams after the Wild Card Series, ensuring the No. 1 seed always faces the remaining team with the worst record, and maybe they will in the future. It won’t happen this year though. The No. 1 seed will face the winner of the Wild Card Series with two actual Wild Card teams, and given the makeup of the postseason field, the No. 2 seed might be preferable. (I say that until the Yankees have to go to Houston in the ALCS.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. So long, Miggy Missiles. The Pirates claimed Miguel Andujar off waivers over the weekend. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a set DH since trading Dan Vogelbach, so that’s a good spot for Andujar. Then again, the season is basically over. The Pirates have only eight games to play (Andujar went 1-for-3 with a walk in his Pirates debut Monday). More likely, they claimed Andujar with an eye on their 2023 DH spot, assuming he doesn’t get non-tendered (he’ll get a tiny raise over his $1.3M salary through arbitration). So long, Miggy. We’ll always have 2018. Give ‘em hell with Manny Banuelos in the NL Central … The Marlins and manager Don Mattingly are mutually parting ways after the season. Mattingly’s contract is up and it’s been a bit of an open secret the team would move on this winter, and this allows him to leave with some dignity. I’m surprised we haven’t already heard Mattingly speculatively connected to the Yankees. Feels inevitable, right? Manager, hitting coach, whatever. The current makeup of the coaching staff (i.e. almost all young and analytically-inclined) suggests Mattingly won’t return, but who knows, maybe the Yankees get bounced quick in October, ownership cleans house, and goes for the brand name. I suspect there will be a lot of smoke regarding Mattingly and the Yankees this offseason, but very little fire … Marly Rivera has a fun story on the bullpen’s new FDNY helmet. The Yankees give a championship belt to the game’s top player after each win and it usually goes to a hitter or the starting pitcher, so Zack Britton came up with the FDNY helmet for the bullpen (a firefighter’s helmet because relievers put out fires). They put a sticker with the uniform number of the day’s best reliever on the helmet after each win and fill it up like a college football helmet. “(Guys) that were not expected to (pitch high leverage innings), they're the ones carrying the load. It's not their job. They're not getting paid to do that. I'm getting paid to do that, (Aroldis) Chapman is getting paid to do that. And all the relievers that were acquired and the young guys that have joined our bullpen, I felt like these guys should be recognized,” Britton told Rivera. Pretty neat … And finally, Andrew Marchand notes Michael Kay declined the opportunity to step in as the lead play-by-play guy during the Apple TV broadcast Friday night. Props to Kay for that. Sports broadcasting is a brutal business and almost impossible to crack into at the highest level, and Kay could’ve big leagued his way into the booth to potentially call a historic home run, but he passed and let the younger broadcaster have it. No. 61 (and No. 62!) is an all-timer call, a call of a career kinda call, and Kay didn’t push someone out to take it. I respect it.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)