Thoughts following the 2022 trade deadline

A replacement starter, not an additional starter. (Getty)

The trade deadline has come and gone and everything the Yankees did was smart and sensible right up until they threw us a curveball about five minutes before the 6pm ET deadline. Things went from sensible to confusing real quick. We’ve already discussed the Andrew Benintendi trade. Here’s what the Yankees did at the deadline itself:

Yankees receive: RHP Scott Effross
Cubs receive: RHP Hayden Wesneski

Yankees receive: RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Lou Trivino
Athletics receive: 2B Cooper Bowman, RHP Luis Medina, LHP JP Sears, LHP Ken Waldichuk

Yankees receive: RHP Clayton Beeter
Dodgers receive: OF Joey Gallo

Yankees receive: CF Harrison Bader and a player to be named or cash
Cardinals receive: LHP Jordan Montgomery

That last one is the shocker. The Yankees subtracted from their rotation at a time when there are workload and health concerns abound, and absorbed a ton of risk when a contender is supposed to use the deadline to do the opposite. Are the Yankees a better team today then they were before the deadline? Yep. Are they as good as they could’ve been without that last trade? Nope.

“Ultimately our record through August 2nd won’t guarantee us anything in October,” Brian Cashman told Greg Joyce after the deadline. “It’s the accumulation of talent, keeping it healthy and playing to maximum ability. Just because we played exceptional baseball thru August 1st doesn’t mean we get to kick back and assume it continues that way.”

The Yankees accomplished their goals at the deadline and put the team in better position to win a short postseason series, or at least I think they did. Let’s go over a busy trade deadline day.

1. Montgomery for Bader. I will start by saying I love a good MLB player for MLB player trade. They are a dying breed. It feels like every trade these days is an MLB player(s) for prospects because so many teams are rebuilding. It’s not often two teams matchup so well – my area of depth for your surplus – and are able to do a one-for-one trade of big leaguers. It’s neat.

In a vacuum, Montgomery for Bader is a perfectly reasonable trade that addresses a need for each team. It’s 1.5 years of a good but not great starter for 1.5 years of a good but not great center fielder, and good center fielders are hard to find. The Yankees seem to know what they’re doing with pitching and they needed a center fielder, so fits.

These things do not happen in a vacuum though, and the Yankees just traded their second most dependable starter (in terms of taking the ball every fifth day) for a center fielder who is on the injured list with plantar fasciitis (do speed and defense players need healthy feet?) and may not play again in 2022. Cashman said the Yankees expect Bader to play again this year, but the fact the trade includes a player to be named in case he doesn’t tells you there’s at least some doubt*.

“Harrison Bader is one of the elite center field defenders in the game,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch after the trade. “He provides a lot of lanes for us and our manager when he’s healthy. Certainly, we did a deep dive into his medicals, and there’s a lot of optimism and belief that sometime in September we’ll be able to unpack that present and deploy him.”

* Cardinals reporter extraordinaire Derrick Goold says the player to be namel will come from an already agreed upon pool of minor leaguers if Bader doesn’t make it back this season.

Subtracting Montgomery cuts into the benefit of adding Montas, and it means the Yankees now have to hope Domingo German stays healthy, Nestor Cortes remains effective as he soars beyond his previous career high workload, Jameson Taillon reverses his two-month tailspin, and Luis Severino returns without a hitch. Not loving that plan. Wee bit risky.

Trading Montgomery is a vote of confidence in Clarke Schmidt as a starter (hooray!) and also German for some reason. Why that guy has such a long leash, I have no idea, but he does and he has the last few years. The Yankees play favorites (like every other team) and aren’t subtle about it. German is a favorite. There is no other way to read their continued dedication.

Between the Montgomery trade and the Yankees dealing away three members of their Triple-A rotation (I’m totally fine with that!), they now have less rotation depth than they did before the deadline. This is the depth chart now:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. RHP Frankie Montas (had a shoulder issue last month)
3. RHP Luis Severino (on 60-day injured list)
4. LHP Nestor Cortes (8.1 innings short of his career high)
5. RHP Jameson Taillon (5.72 ERA in his last 11 starts, plus a long injury history)
6. RHP Domingo German (long shoulder injury history)
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt (long elbow injury history)

Ryan Weber is gonna start a game at some point in August, isn’t he? Well, no, the Yankees would probably pair him with an opener, but you can envision a scenario in which they suddenly need a spot starter and he’s at the front of the line. The chances it’ll happen are annoyingly high, though at least the division lead remains double digits. That softens the blow.

Montgomery probably wasn’t in line to start a postseason game – I assume the master plan in October is Cole followed by Montas, Severino, and whoever finishes the season best in the No. 4 spot – but he might have been needed in a postseason game. So, in addition to taking away a reliable innings guy for August and September, the Yankees also limited their options for October. Pretty much the exact opposite of what they should have done.

“This is my family. This is all I know. I’ve been playing with the same guys for years. I’m going to miss (Aaron) Judge, going to miss Jamo. It’s tough,” Montgomery told Hoch. “... It’s going to be weird. Whatever they need me to do over there, I’ll do it. It’s just weird timing.”

Bader, a Bronxville native and Horace Mann alum, is a good player and a superlative defender. Legitimately one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. He slashed .258/.327/.457 (111 wRC+) in over 500 plate appearances from 2020-21 and that’s more or less his offensive upside. Average strikeout rate, average walk rate, some steals, doubles more than dingers. Bader hit .256/.303/.370 (93 wRC+) before getting hurt this year. He last played on June 26th.

I worry the Yankees are zagging too hard toward defense after zigging in favor of offense so long. Assuming Bader returns and plays everyday, you’re looking at defense over offense players at catcher, shortstop, and in center field, and maybe at third base seeing how the Yankees can’t seem to quit Josh Donaldson. You’re asking a lot of the other six guys with that lineup. The teams that win in October tend to be the teams with the fewest dead spots in the lineup.

The Yankees were said to be in the mix for Marlins righty Pablo Lopez prior to the deadline and gosh, making the Montgomery trade in anticipation of landing Lopez and then the Marlins pulling the rug out from under the Yankees on the Lopez trade sure would explain things. I can’t imagine that happened though. The Yankees would’ve dotted the Is and crossed the Ts on Lopez before trading Montgomery. I think they trust their pitching depth and really like Bader. That’s all.

"We went down swinging at the very end with a lot of different concepts,” Cashman told Hoch, repeating the “we tried” shtick we’ve been hearing since the offseason.

This almost feels like a trade geared toward next season. If Bader returns later this year, great, and if not the Yankees will take the player to be named and welcome Bader in Spring Training. Subtracting from the rotation to get an injured outfielder is most definitely not the kinda trade you see from World Series contenders. This is so out of the ordinary. Out of the ordinary doesn’t always mean bad, but this one feels bad. There’s a lot more downside than upside for the Yankees.

Montgomery is a rock solid Major Leaguer who’s demonstrated an unfortunate knack for melting down whenever the intensity is ratcheted up a bit. He’s still a valuable pitcher who can chew up innings and help the Yankees navigate their workload and injury concerns, and help put them in a better position for October. There’s a pretty good chance the Yankees just traded Montgomery for nothing that will help the 2022 Yankees. I have a very hard time getting on board with that.

“I didn’t acquire Montas so I could move Monty,” Cashman told Joyce. “Me and my staff entered the trade acquisition market of exports and imports trying to figure out the overall ecosystem of that roster and what fits best with a plan for October, and how could we best be flying high at the best of our abilities when it counts the most in October, and what gives us the most amount of quality choices? That’s what went into every single decision we made. So we’re excited about what Bader can bring down the line for us. We have to wait on it, we get that. But it came at the expense of a quality choice we already had.”

2. The new rotation member. Is “Yankie Montas” anything? No? Anyway, I gotta admit, once I saw what it took to get Luis Castillo, I figured the Yankees had no chance at Montas. The price for 1.5 years of a high-end starter was set sky high and the Yankees are loath to trade their very best prospects. I thought some other team would make a big offer (Cardinals? Twins?) and steal Montas away, but nope. He’s a Yankee.

“I feel great. I’m really excited about it,” Aaron Boone told Hoch after the trade. “He is a great pitcher. There’s been rumors around him most of the first half of the season. I’m excited we were able to push through on a deal for him. His level of talent, especially with how he’s pitched the last couple of years, I’m just excited to get him into the mix.”

Montas, 29, is no stranger to being traded. He originally signed with the Red Sox as an amateur, then went to the White Sox in the three-team Jake Peavy/Avisail Garcia/Jose Iglesias trade with the Tigers in 2013, then to the Dodgers in the three-team Todd Frazier/Jose Peraza trade with the Reds in 2015, and then to the A’s in the Rich Hill/Josh Reddick trade in 2016.

An up-and-down guy until 2018, Montas figured things out in 2019 and he’s pitched to a 3.43 ERA (3.45 FIP) in 440.2 innings since. He also got popped for a performance-enhancing drug in 2019, though he’s been great the last two seasons (3.30 ERA and 3.37 FIP in 291.2 innings), so it’s not like he tested positive and went in the tank. Montas has been really good for several years now.

The Yankees have a type and Montas is that type. He throws a heavy mid-to-upper-90s sinker that allows him to get strikeouts (25.8%) and grounders (46.1%) at a better than average rate, and he doesn’t walk people either (6.6%). His go-to secondary pitch is a splitter that has run whiff rates in the 50% range in recent years. This is nasty (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Montas is not without red flags. First, he missed two starts (but did not go on the injured list) with shoulder inflammation earlier this month, though he pitched well in his two starts back* and his velocity wasn’t down or anything. It’s also the only arm injury Montas has had in his career. Still, shoulder woes are never good. I’m sure the Yankees scrutinized the medicals.

* The A’s kept Montas on a pitch count (53 and 78 pitches) in those two starts, so he’s still building up after the shoulder injury. Gotta think the Yankees will continue easing him back into action. Don’t expect to see 100 pitches in his first start, whenever it is**.

** Montas will join the Yankees in St. Louis this weekend. His mother-in-law passed away earlier this week and he’s with his family. Players have 72 hours to report to their new team after a trade and Montas is in that 72-hour window. He’s not officially on the roster and the Yankees will need to send a pitcher down when he’s activated Friday (Ron Marinaccio? who else could it be?).

“He had a hiccup there with his shoulder. He’s building up his pitch count and threw 78 (pitches) the last time,” Boone told Hoch. “I think we’re comfortable with where he’s at shoulder-wise and I know he’s going to be a big addition to the staff.”

And two, Montas has extreme home/road splits this year, which is pretty common for Athletics pitchers. RingCentral Coliseum has a big outfield, a ton of foul territory, and the marine layer knocks down fly balls at night. It’s a great place to pitch. The home/road splits just popped up this year though. It’s not like Montas has struggled with them for years. The numbers quick:

Hold on, Montas has only thrown 26 innings away from Oakland this season? Yes, that’s right. Only 26 innings on the road this year. Montas has made seven road starts in 2022, including a) his first two starts of the year (so only five of his last 17 starts have been on the road), b) one that was cut short after 1.2 innings because he took a line drive to the hand, and c) one that was cut short after one inning because of the shoulder issue. It’s August and he’s thrown 26 innings on the road! Wild.

So yeah, I’m not worried about the home/road splits then. The 2020 splits are extreme but that was a bizarre pandemic season, and his splits weren’t anything crazy in 2019 and 2021. Montas is going to pitch worse in Yankee Stadium than he did in Oakland because the Coliseum is one of the most favorable pitcher’s parks in baseball. An above-average pitcher in pinstripes looks different than an above-average pitcher in green and gold. Context is important.

Once Castillo was off the board, Montas became the best available starter with control beyond this season, and perhaps the best available starter period (Carlos Rodon is no slouch). The Yankees needed more than an innings eater and Montas can be an impact starter. We know this because he has been an impact starter the last few years, including pitching to a 2.21 ERA in six starts against those gosh darn Astros the last two seasons.

It’s a little too early to line up the postseason rotation but Cole and Montas is a wonderful 1-2 punch, and a healthy Severino would form a powerful bat-missing top three. And the Yankees get to keep Montas next season. I was worried the Castillo return would push Montas out of the Yankees’ comfort zone. I’m glad they got this done. They needed him (or someone like him) to reach the ultimate goal. The current options weren’t good enough.

3. Who is Effross? You know, I had Scott Effross on my list of relievers to write about a few weeks ago, but I assumed the Cubs would keep the cheap pitcher with long-term control, so I didn’t bother. Figures. Also, I keep calling this guy Zac Effross in my head because of the actor. Couldn’t tell you one thing Zac Efron has been in, but his name is stuck in my head. I hate it.

Anyway, the Yankees got their reliever Monday, sending Wesneski to the Cubs for Scott – not Zac – Effross. This is a perfectly sensible trade in which both clubs got exactly what they wanted. The Yankees got a quality reliever to boost their World Series chances in 2022 (and beyond), and the Cubs got a high-probability starter for their rebuild. So reasonable it’s boring.

“I’ve heard his name a lot. I know our guys have liked him a lot,” Boone told Hoch after the trade. “And then obviously he’s had a really good season with the Cubs. We’re getting a guy that we feel like gets both handed (hitters) out and is really having one of the better seasons of any reliever in the league.”

Effross is a late bloomer (he’s already 28) who never appeared on a prospect list, yet is an ideal versatile modern bullpen arm and seemingly the platonic ideal of a Yankees reliever. He’s a low-90s sinker/low-80s sweeper guy with an excellent changeup (it’s his best pitch, really) and a very low arm slot. A very low arm slot. One of the lowest arm slots in the game:

There is a trend toward lower arm slot guys these days because teams better understand how to use their angles and the unusual looks they create. Paul Sewald, who we saw Tuesday night, is the ultimate low arm slot/fastball angle guy. Giants submariner Tyler Rogers with his rising slider is the most extreme example.

“A lot of conversations and watching a lot of video. I was trying to really understand what I was trying to do since I guess I was becoming a completely different pitcher,” Effross told Sahadev Sharma (subs. req’d) last year about transitioning to sidearm in Double-A. “I couldn’t be more grateful. It completely changed my career. (The Cubs) had the faith in me to let me experiment, and they put a lot of time and effort to get me to be comfortable with the move. I’m super grateful for the opportunity.”

Effross, a former 15th round draft pick, debuted last season and owns a career 2.91 ERA (2.47 FIP) with very good strikeout (28.8%), walk (5.1%), and ground ball (46.0%) rates. He has also been better against lefties (.216 wOBA allowed) than righties (.283 wOBA allowed) in his career. Usually low slot guys get pummeled by batters of the opposite hand. Effross hasn’t (yet). This plays:

The Cubs used Effross as a high leverage fireman – he’s entered games as early as the fourth inning and as late as the tenth – and while pitching high leverage innings for the rebuilding Cubs is not the same as pitching high leverage innings for the contending Yankees, all indications are Effross is a tough dude who can handle it. We’ll find out either way. I like the addition. Effross is good and fun, and those are my favorite kinda players.

4. Buying low on Trivino. I didn’t win the billion dollar Mega Millions the other day, but I did write about a buy low bullpen target before the Yankees traded for him, and I imagine this feels just as good. Probably, right? Anyway, the Yankees did indeed trade for Trivino, the A’s reliever with an unsightly 6.47 ERA but oh so much promise under the hood.

Here’s what I wrote about Trivino last week:

Everything must go in Oakland and the 30-year-old Trivino figures to be on the move soon. He’s been solid the last few years and the unsightly ERA this year hides real improvement. Trivino replaced his curveball with a sweeper in May and the pitch has a whiff rate north of 50%. He also lives in the 95-97 mph range with his sinker, which is positively Yankees-esque.

More than anything, Trivino is falling victim to awful luck on balls in play. He has a .470 BABIP overall and a .390 BABIP on ground balls, which is insane. The MLB average is a .235 BABIP on grounders and Trivino’s career rate is … .235. Take away Gold Glovers Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, play an outfielder at second base (Tony Kemp), and this is what happens.

Trivino throws five pitches at least 10% of the time each (sinker, four-seamer, slider, changeup, cutter) and that might be too much. Why is a short reliever futzing around with fourth and fifth pitches? Let’s not overthink this. Pare it down to something like 90% sinkers and sliders and let it eat for 15-20 pitches at a time. Trivino screams buy low target and the Yankees’ improved infield defense could do wonders for him.

When the Yankees brought in Clay Holmes last year and Albert Abreu this year, they got them to throw a ton more sinkers. Wandy Peralta basically doubled his changeup rate as soon as he put on pinstripes. The Yankees are going to do something with Trivino’s pitch mix. I don’t know what, exactly, but something. This trade was made with specific tweaks in mind. I’m sure of it.

We got a Trivino-Trevino battery Tuesday night and you forewarned, there are going to be a lot of Trivino/Trevino typos moving forward. No chance I don’t mix their names up from time to time without even realizing it (hey, Severino mixed them up too). Not much more to say about Trivino after what I wrote last week. I look forward to the Yankees fixing him.

“We’ve talked about him for a long time,” Boone told Hoch. “We feel like he’s having a little bit of a down year statistically, but we don’t think it lines up with what we’re seeing on some of the underlying things and who we think he is. He’s been a very good reliever for them on some playoff caliber teams, so he’s another veteran guy that we think will fit in nicely to our ‘pen.”

(Montas and Trivino both made the trip to Toronto with the Athletics earlier this season, so no issues there. No word on Effross though. The Cubs make a trip to Toronto this year, but not until late August, so we’re in the dark on his availability to play north of the border.)

5. Gallo for Beeter. The biggest lock of the trade deadline was the Yankees finding Gallo a new home and they did just that, sending him to the Dodgers. Gallo came over at last year’s deadline and instantly became one of the worst hitters in baseball, slashing .159/.291/.368 (88 wRC+) with a 38.7% strikeouts rate in over 501 plate appearances as a Yankee.

“I have a lot of respect for how he worked, how he carried himself, and who he was in that room,” Boone told Hoch. “I think a lot of us really feel for the situation he was in, the burden he felt and carried. I think a lot of us, myself included, very much hope that he goes and recaptures what we all know he’s capable of doing. I’ll truly be rooting for him from afar.”

Gallo was 9-for-88 (.102) with 42 strikeouts since the cherry-picked date of June 10th, and there is just no way he wasn’t completely miserable given his play and the constant booing. His recent interview with Randy Miller is just brutal:

Q: Are you ready for this trade deadline to be over?

Gallo: I am. We’ll see what happens. I’m waiting to hear. My parents are waiting to hear. They’re going to have to come to New York and clean my apartment out, get all the furniture moved out.

Q: Have you been living in Manhattan?

Gallo: Yeah.

Q: What’s it been like for you when Yankees fans notice you on the streets? Are they rough on you away from the ballpark, too?

Gallo: I don’t go out in the streets.

Q: That’s sad.

Gallo: Yeah. I really don’t want to show my face too much around here.

The writing has been on the wall for weeks and it became more clear when the Yankees started playing 36-year-old Matt Carpenter in the outfield (his first outfield action since 2014), and even more clear when they brought in Benintendi. Gallo started only four of his last 14 games on the roster and only one of the last seven. He was already out of the picture. Now it’s official.

A few weeks ago I said “I don’t expect the Yankees to get much for Gallo but I also think they’ll wind up getting an actual prospect in return,” and that’s exactly what happened. Beeter was the No. 66 pick in the 2020 draft and he was on the radar at the time, so much so that I wrote a draft profile about him. The 23-year-old has a 5.75 ERA (5.06 FIP) with 36.1% strikeouts and 14.3% walks in 51.2 innings at Double-A this season.

The midseason updates ranked Beeter as the No. 15-ish prospect in the Dodgers system before the trade. Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote in May since it’s the most recent scouting report (here’s video):

Beeter had Tommy John in 2017, an arthroscopic surgery in ’18, and then was one of many wild, volatile, hard-throwing hurlers in the Texas Tech bullpen in ’19. He came out of the gate as a Red Raiders starter in 2020 and was not only electric, sitting in the mid-90s with two plus or better breaking balls, but for the first time in his life, was also throwing strikes. It was at this point that his draft stock exploded. His fastball has big carry thanks to its backspinning axis, and it works similarly to the way Rays righty Nick Anderson‘s does, as do his breaking balls. This is ready-made elite bullpen stuff, but because of the shortened season, Beeter only had a four-start track record of strike-throwing when the Dodgers drafted him 66th overall. They deployed him exclusively as a starter in 2021, and while his walk rates were not glaringly bad, visual assessment of Beeter’s feel and command continue to bucket him in the bullpen. His delivery is stiff and he tilts out to create a vertical arm slot that helps impart the carry on his fastball and the depth on his two breaking balls. He’s sitting 93-96 mph as a starter and might be able to crank it higher than that in relief, though he was also 93-96 in the short instructs outings Eric saw in the fall. It can sometimes be tough to discern his curveball (78-81 mph) from his slider (83-86 mph) in terms of their shape, with the former more likely to be used in the zone. It’s possible some of Beeter’s consistency issues will force him into a lesser role, but he has the stuff of a set-up man or better.

I’ve neither read anything nor spoken to anyone who thinks Beeter can start. He’s a bullpen guy all the way and potentially a great one with power, bat-missing stuff. Beeter was billed as a spin rate monster before the draft and Baseball America (subs. req’d) recently wrote he has “innate feel to spin that shows up both on his fastball and breaking ball,” so the spin is still there.

On one hand, the Yankees have had success with guys like Beeter in recent years, and he helps replenish some of the pitching prospect depth that was sent away at the deadline. On the other hand, the Dodgers know what they’re doing, and it’s generally a red flag when they give up on a guy. Los Angeles giving up Beeter for a rental (especially one performing as poorly as Gallo) makes me think they had concerns.

Now, that said, Gallo’s value was in the dumps, and a week ago I was talking about a possible DFA just to buy a roster spot for a few days. Getting a live arm – and unloading the remainder of Gallo’s $10.275M salary – in return is a really great outcome. Hopefully the Yankees can work their magic with Beeter and I hope Gallo goes forth and mashes taters in Chavez Ravine.

6. On the prospects. I tell you what, drafting good but not great college pitchers in the middle rounds and then turning them into quality prospects through ~*science*~ and then trading them for quality big leaguers is a hell of a racket. The Yankees traded eight prospects at the deadline (seven pitchers). Look how those eight prospects were acquired:

• LHP T.J. Sikkema (Benintendi trade): No. 38 pick in 2019
• RHP Beck Way (Benintendi trade): 4th round in 2020
• 2B Cooper Bowman (Montas/Trivino trade): 4th round in 2021
• LHP Ken Waldichuk (Montas/Trivino trade): 5th round in 2019
• RHP Hayden Wesneski (Effross trade): 6th round in 2019
• RHP Chander Champlain (Benintendi trade): 9th round in 2021
• RHP Luis Medina (Montas/Trivino trade): $280,000 signing in July 2015
• LHP JP Sears (Montas/Trivino trade): Nick Rumbelow trade with Mariners

Only one of those players required a significant investment in terms of draft capital and signing bonus (Sikkema got $1.95M). Everyone else originally joined the Yankees as what amounted to a lottery ticket. The Yankees developed them – Waldichuk, Wesneski, and Sears made massive gains in 2021, Champlain nice gains in 2022 – and turned them into MLB help. Incredible.

I’m a bit surprised the Yankees traded Waldichuk and Wesneski, but by no means were they off-limits (I said as much in my trade chips post). I just didn’t think they’d trade both. Wesneski has a 3.51 ERA (4.00 FIP) with good but not great underlying numbers in 89.2 Triple-A innings this year (22.4% strikeouts, 7.5% walks, and 41.6% grounders). His prospect stock is tied up in probability more than upside.

Chances are Wesneski will make his MLB debut with the Cubs later this year and the Yankees trading a near-MLB-ready starter would have been unthinkable a few years ago. They couldn’t develop starters at all. Now the Yankees are trading three – three! – at the trade deadline (Sears, Waldichuk, Wesneski), plus they traded a big league starter in Montgomery. I hardly even recognize this team anymore.

The Yankees tend to build around elite tools like Giancarlo Stanton’s power, Jose Trevino’s framing, Holmes’ sinker, etc. As I wrote before the season, Wesneski is the “pitching equivalent of a ‘good at everything, great at nothing’ position player prospect.” He is very likely to be a big leaguer and a good one, but probably not a great one, and the Yankees tend to keep the prospects with a chance to be great and trade the prospects with a chance to be merely good*.

* Montgomery was a notable exception and he had to earn his spot. He went to Spring Training as a non-roster guy in 2017 and beat out everyone else for the No. 5 starter’s job (Green, Luis Cessa, and Bryan Mitchell were the other rotation candidates that spring). Say what you want about Montgomery’s performance, but that dude won his job. He wasn’t given anything.

Waldichuk has an elite skill in his fastball. The Yankees usually keep guys like that. You’re also not getting Montas (and Trivino) for spare parts. Waldichuk was the best pitching prospect in the system before the trade and he’s starting to pop up on top 100 lists. Considering the Mariners gave up two top 50 prospects to get Castillo, yeah, I can live with Waldichuk being the headliner in a Montas trade package. You’ve got to give them something, you know?

Sears is very much an A’s type. He’s a pop up/fly ball pitcher and those guys always have success in the Coliseum, plus he’s a lefty with a running fastball. As my pal R.J. Anderson noted, the A’s are all about lefties with running fastballs. Sears gives them three of the top 11 lefties in fastball run, plus they have several others who are above-average.

I don’t know how much longer the A’s will stay in Oakland, but I could see Sears putting up a 3.50-ish ERA in the Coliseum for however many years (until they trade him for more prospects, basically). I really liked Sears as a depth arm. I’ll miss him. It’s a great opportunity for him too. He turns 27 in February. If you’re Sears and want to move your career forward, would you rather be a starter for the Athletics or an up-and-down depth guy for the Yankees? Exactly.

Medina was one of the most obvious trade candidates in the system. He has long had the best pure stuff in the system, but the command isn’t getting better, and he’s in his final minor league option year. It’s waivers or MLB for Medina next season and I don’t see how the Yankees could carry him on their 2023 big league roster. The A’s can. The Yankees? Nah. Medina has a 3.38 ERA (3.86 FIP) with 26.4% strikeout and 13.0% walks while repeating Double-A this year.

I labeled Bowman a prospect to know before the season and there’s not too much to say about him. He was the fastest player in the organization and he hasn’t really performed this year, hitting .217/.343/.355 (95 wRC+) with High-A Hudson Valley. I didn’t have him as a top 30 prospect in the system before the trade and while there are some tools, Bowman was expendable and an easy prospect to give up as the fourth piece in a trade that adds a guy like Montas.

The Yankees managed to make all those trades – they got the best rental outfielder and second best controllable starter, among others – without surrendering any of their top position player prospects (Jasson Dominguez, Everson Pereira, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells). They did give up their top pitching prospect (Waldichuk) and a lot of pitching depth in general, but this is the build-a-pitcher era, and there seems to be a new breakout pitching prospect every month. I’m tired of writing about them. I really am.

Beeter replenishes the pipeline a bit and the Yankees could get a draft pick for Montas (and Bader?) after next season. Ultimately, they again traded from their second and third tier prospects rather than their top tier prospects. That has been their M.O. the last few years. We keep the best guys, you can have everyone else. It hurts them at times (Volpe was off the table for Castillo, for example) but that’s the philosophy. No real qualms with the prospects surrendered. Would’ve been nice to keep Waldichuk, but that’s the price for a pitcher like Montas.

7. On the payroll. FanGraphs puts the post-deadline luxury tax payroll at $263.4M, so the Yankees more or less stayed payroll neutral through all these moves. They neither added money nor subtracted money, and they have plenty of wiggle room under the $270M third luxury tax tier for, uh, nothing. Can’t make any trades now. It’s waivers and free agents only now.

The Yankees treated the third luxury tier, the tier that pushes next year’s first round pick back 10 spots, as a hard cap in 2019 and 2020. Did they do that again this year? Maybe, but I don’t think so. I think it’s just how the market shook out. They added …

• … the best rental outfielder
• … the second best controllable starter
• … a buy low reliever in his arbitration years
• … an injured outfielder in his arbitration years

… and the only money they moved out was Gallo, who had to go, and it’s not like they attached a sweetener to him to unload his salary a la Adam Ottavino. They traded Gallo for a prospect. Did the Yankees pass on anything for money reasons? I don’t think so. Even a trade for Pablo Lopez, or Castillo instead of Montas, would have kept the Yankees under $270M.

Last deadline staying under the $210M luxury tax threshold was such a priority the Yankees gave up additional/higher quality prospects to get the other team to eat money in every trade they made. There were no such machinations this year. Everything was a straight baseball trade with no funky payroll business, and it didn’t push the Yankees into the next penalty tier. Not much to it, I don’t think.

8. The 40-man roster situation. The Yankees cleared out the upcoming 40-man roster crunch a bit at the deadline. Sikkema, Wesneski and Waldichuk will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter and Medina was essentially a dead 40-man spot as a prospect who was an emergency MLB call up candidate only. Bowman is two years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility, Beeter one year away.

The Yankees currently have 46 players on the 40-man roster (six 60-day injured list guys) and it looks like they’ll be in pretty good shape after the season. Here are the 40-man spots that will become available:

• Free agents (9): Andrew Benintendi, Zack Britton, Matt Carpenter, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Judge, Marwin Gonzalez, Chad Green, Jameson Taillon
• Contract options (2): Anthony Rizzo (player), Luis Severino (club)
• Easily droppable (2): Carlos Espinal, Tim Locastro
• Likely gone (1): Miguel Andujar (and Deivi Garcia?)

Even if Rizzo and Severino stick around, that’s 12 players coming off what is currently a 46-man roster, clearing plenty of spots. I looked at the prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible a few weeks ago and Waldichuk, Wesneski, and Randy Vasquez were the only no doubt about it protection candidates. Now there’s room for guys like Jhony Brito and Anthony Seigler, if the Yankees want to protect them.

The Yankees will be in good 40-man roster shape after the season mostly thanks to all those outgoing free agents, and also thanks to the trade deadline moves. For the first time in quite a while, the Yankees will have a good deal of roster flexibility after the season. That'll be nice.

9. Other deadline rumors. As noted earlier, the Yankees were reportedly in the mix for Pablo Lopez in the hours (minutes, really) leading up to the deadline. Here are a few other random deadline nuggets I want to discuss.

Soto to the Padres

I can’t believe the Nationals traded Juan Soto. They won the World Series three years ago! How do you let your organization decline so rapidly and to the point where trading away a 23-year-old generational talent with another two years of control is a sensible move? Unbelievable. Anyway, the Josh Bell component complicates things, but here is the Yankees’ equivalent of the trade package:

• SS C.J. Abrams: Anthony Volpe
• LHP MacKenzie Gore: Anthony Volpe as a pitcher
• OF Robert Hassell: Anthony Volpe as an outfielder
• OF James Wood: Everson Pereira
• RHP Jarlin Susana: Luis Serna
• 1B Luke Voit: Matt Carpenter I guess?

The Yankees had no chance to match the trade package. They would have had to eat Patrick Corbin’s entire contract ($70M or so through 2024) to knock the prospect cost down, and I’m not even sure that would have been enough. It’s the baseball Herschel Walker trade.

Gore (No. 3 pick in 2017), Abrams (No. 6 pick in 2019), and Hassell (No. 8 pick in 2020) were all top eight draft picks within the last five years. The Yankees haven’t had a top 15 pick, let alone a top eight pick, since taking Derek Jeter sixth overall in 1992. They almost never have access to the kinda talent the Padres built their package around. The Yankees had no chance here.

I guess this means I can stop holding out hope the Yankees will trade for Soto. At least until the Padres put him on the market in a few years because they won’t be able to sign him long-term. Soto, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, Fernando Tatis Jr. … those darn big market teams keep ruining it for the little guys.

Yankees made offer for Ohtani

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees made a “serious” offer for Shohei Ohtani, but the Angels decided to keep him. More accurately, owner Arte Moreno is unwilling to trade Ohtani, his biggest draw with Mike Trout injured and the team’s season circling the toilet. The details of the offer are unknown and I suspect we’ll never hear ‘em.

Ohtani will be a free agent after next season and he’s said repeatedly he wants to win, which the Angels aren’t doing. This offseason the Ohtani Trade Watch™ will begin in earnest, and even then I could see Moreno & Co. taking him into next season, and trading him at the deadline if they’re not in the race. Soto’s no longer an option, but fret not, Ohtani’s still out there.

Yankees inquired about Phillips (and Choi?)

The Yankees were apparently so serious about landing a top defensive center fielder that before the Bader trade they spoke to the Rays about Brett Phillips, who was designated for assignment earlier this week, according to Brendan Kuty. Phillips was traded to the Orioles for cash, so obviously no team offered an actual prospect for him, Yankees included.

Phillips is a fun, excitable guy and a very good defender, but he’s an awful hitter: .147/.225/.250 (42 wRC+) with a 40.9% strikeout rate this year. Higher strikeout rate than Gallo! Phillips was quite a bit better last season (.206/.300/.427 and 103 wRC+), though that is the outlier compared to the rest of his career. Phillips is probably a better speed and defense fifth outfielder than Tim Locastro, but I advise against getting working up about missing out on him. It's not worth it.

Also, Andy Martino says the Yankees checked in with the Rays about Ji-Man Choi, and I’m not sure what the Yankees would have done with him. Rizzo has started three of the last 10 games at DH after starting only five of the first 95 games at DH. Maybe he’s a little banged up and the Yankees looked for a backup plan? I think it’s just part of the rotating DH plan with Giancarlo Stanton out, but who knows. The Choi thing is a bit weird. I dunno.

Yankees checked in on Rodon

Not a whole lot to say here. Heyman reports the Yankees did check in with the Giants about Carlos Rodon, possibly even after landing Montas, but nothing came together. The Giants kept Rodon and will take the draft pick when he opts out after the season. Rodon sure would have softened the blow of the Montgomery trade. For sure.

10. General deadline thoughts. By and large the Yankees accomplished their goals at the trade deadline. They replaced Gallo with a better outfielder (assuming Benintendi starts hitting at some point), they added impact to their rotation, and they added depth to the bullpen. They also got Bader, who may or may not help this year. He’s a lottery ticket.

The Yankees are better team now than they were before the deadline, but they’re a worse team than they would have been had Cashman’s phone died at like 5:45pm ET without him realizing it. The Montgomery trade put a damper on things. The Yankees surrendered a healthy pitcher at a time when they need healthy pitchers for a player who may not contribute this year. The Yankees will win fewer games this season because of that trade. It’s negative value added in 2022.

Someone to bolster the left side of the infield (Joey Wendle?) and not trading Montgomery (or replacing him with another starter after trading him) would have made for a fantastic deadline. As much as we bitch and moan about the Yankees, there aren’t many ways to improve a roster that’s on pace for 109 wins. The Yankees managed to do it without touching the top of their farm system. That’s good work overall.

And yet, the Yankees came out of the deadline not as good as they could have been, and usually when that happens it’s because of a trade they didn’t make, not because of a trade they did make. Montgomery for Bader is a Winter Meetings trade, not a deadline trade when you’re trying to win a championship (and when Bader is injured). Hopefully I’m just overreacting in the immediate aftermath. It felt like such a good deadline until that one last trade. Blah.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)