August 1st, 2022: Judge, Trade Deadline, Injury Updates

Two impressive streaks came to an end Sunday. Ron Marinaccio went 56 batters between allowing a hit, the third most ever behind Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley (71 in 1977) and former Yankee Doc Gooden (57 in 1996). Also, Clay Holmes went 178 batters before allowing a home run this season, the most in baseball. Alas and alack, both streaks ended Sunday and they cost the Yankees the game. So it goes. It’s not an off-day, but here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon because the trade deadline is coming, and I want to get this up before anything happens.

1. Judge’s dingers. Aaron Judge did it. He hit 40 home runs (42 to be precise) before August even though the season started a week late because of the lockout. Even with Sunday’s 0-fer, Judge has hit 12 home runs in his last 15 games. Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani both hit 12 homers in a 15-game span last year, but no Yankee had done it since Alex Rodriguez in 2007. In fact, A-Rod is the only other Yankees to do it, if you can believe that.

“(Experience has) led to a more well-rounded hitter, better consistent quality of contact,” Aaron Boone told Brian Heyman about Judge’s season. “And when you add in his size and power when you’re making good contact, for him, that’s a lot of times going to lead to home runs.”

Judge hit his 200th career homer in his 671st career game Saturday. Only Ryan Howard got to 200 homers in fewer games (he did it in 658 games). Here is the MLB home run leaderboard with two full months to play:

1. Aaron Judge: 42
2. Kyle Schwarber: 33
3. Yordan Alvarez: 30
4. Austin Riley: 29
5. Several tied with 26

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 8. Judge is lapping the field in the home run department, and he’s hitting .297/.383/.671 (191 wRC+) overall, so it’s not like he’s been homers or nothing (he’s also hitting .357/.471/.756 and 225 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, if you care about such things). A few more home run factoids:

• The 42 home runs are tied for the third most ever before August with 1998 Sammy Sosa. 1998 Mark McGwire and 2001 Barry Bonds (45 each) are the only players with more.
• Judge is the first player to hit 40 homers before August since Bonds and Luis Gonzalez both did it in 2000. It’s been done only 12 times in baseball history.
• Judge has nine multi-homer games this season. That’s a new franchise record. The all-time record is 11 by several players, most recently Sosa in 1998. That’s breakable.
• Judge also has three walk-off homers. That ties 1959 Mickey Mantle and 1949 Tommy Heinrich for the most in franchise history (one of Heinrich’s was in the World Series).

We are officially on Record Watch. The American League (and Yankees) single-season record is 61 homers by Roger Maris in 1961. Judge needs 20 homers in the team’s final 59 games to break Maris’ record, and seeing how he just hit 12 homers in 15 games, yeah, Judge has a real chance to do this. Here are a few notable home run milestones:

MLB single-season record: 73 by Barry Bonds in 2001
MLB single-season record for RHB: 70 by Mark McGwire in 1998

AL single-season record: 61 by Roger Maris in 1961
AL single-season record for RHB: 58 by Jimmie Foxx (1932) and Hank Greenberg (1938)

NYY single-season record: 61 by Roger Maris in 1961
NYY single-season record for RHB: 54 by Alex Rodriguez in 2007

Judge is on pace for 66 home runs, and even before this 12 homers in 15 games binge, he was on pace for 55 homers. He nearly broke A-Rod’s record for a Yankees righty in 2017 and should get there this season. Judge needs to average more than one homer every three games the rest of the way to break Maris’ record. It’s doable, but geez, that’s quite a pace to keep up for two months.

Obviously an injury would derail any shot at Maris’ record, and if Judge gets hurt, the record is going to be the last thing on anyone’s mind. Also, teams will probably stop pitching to Judge, at least in high leverage situations. The Yankees have a big division lead, sure, but their opponents are fighting for their postseason lives and will pitch around Judge in certain spots. That will cut into his home run output too.

There’s also the load management thing. The Yankees like to rest their players, we know that, and their priority is having Judge at 100% in October (Judge would agree with this). That said, Judge chasing Maris will put a ton of butts in the seats in September. Rather than full days off, I think we’ll see Judge get a lot more DH days down the stretch. I can’t imagine sitting this guy once a week or whatever it is when he has a chance at 60+ homers.

“You can’t look at it,” Judge told Bryan Hoch when asked about chasing 60 homers. “I’ve just got to keep working hard, keep my head down and do what I can to help this team win games. At the end of the year, we can talk about what we finish at.”

If the season ended today, I’m pretty sure Judge would win AL MVP, possibly even unanimously. He leads baseball in both FanGraphs (+6.4 WAR) and Baseball Reference (+5.9 WAR), and I’m not just talking about position players. Pitchers too. Judge leads them all (shoutout to the Mets for knocking Sandy Alcantara around this weekend and bumping his bWAR down).

The season does not end today though and a lot can change in two months. Remember when Vlad Guerrero swooped in and beat out Gary Sheffield for MVP with a monster finish in 2004? Vlad deserved that MVP (actually Ichiro probably did), though the narrative was in Sheffield’s favor pretty much all year. Then Guerrero stole it away seemingly at the last moment.

I don’t care too much about MVP. It’s out of my control (I don’t have an awards vote this year) and I think I just have awards fatigue. They’re fun and I hope Judge wins, but if he doesn’t, he doesn’t. I am far, far more interested in the home run race. A Yankee is in the MVP race every few years, but rarely does a player have a legit chance at 60+ homers this late in the season. MVP would be cool. 60+ homers would be even cooler (and of course 60+ homers would equal MVP too).

“Aaron is cut out for this. If we’re a month from now, six weeks from now, and he’s knocking on the door of those kind of things, and we understand the attention that’s going to come with that, I can’t think of someone more equipped to handle it,” Boone told Heyman. “I think you can start at the start of this year with all the talk centered around the contract and how that’s affected him. He’s built for this. I think anything you throw at him, whether he gets to a number or doesn’t get to a number, I don’t think that the circumstances and the pressure is going to be a reason he does or doesn’t.”

2. Trade deadline rumors. The trade deadline is 6 p.m. ET Tuesday and my official prediction is the Yankees get a depth starter (i.e. not Frankie Montas) and a reliever. I want them to get an impact starter (i.e. Montas) and a reliever, plus maybe a catcher, but what I want and what the Yankees do don’t align often (and they’re right way more than I am). I think there’s more coming though. I don’t think it’ll be Andrew Benintendi and that’s it. Let’s break down the latest rumors.

No traction with Soto

Gonna get the easy one out of the way first: Jon Heyman says the Yankees have no traction with the Nationals in Juan Soto trade talks. They are still talking, even after the Benintendi trade, but Heyman says the Nationals view Anthony Volpe as a good big leaguer more than a star, which is a pretty big obstacle. You have to give up a future star(s) to get a guy like Soto. Good reminder public prospect rankings don’t matter. All that matters is how teams evaluate players internally. So, nothing doing with Soto. For shame.

Mariners get Castillo

Right as Aaron Judge socked that grand slam Friday night, it was reported the Mariners were set to acquire Reds ace Luis Castillo for a four-prospect package. The trade has since been made official. The Yankees were after Castillo and now they’re going to see him with the Mariners this week (he’s starting Wednesday), and then again next week when they’re in Seattle. Groan.

“We've got a chance to do something really big here this year,” Mariners manager Scott Servais told Paul Casella following the trade. “You have got to step out and take a chance once in a while. If you ultimately want to get the reward, take a little risk, and that's what we’ve got here.”

Acquiring two postseason runs of an ace is going to hurt and the Mariners gave up a significant prospect package to get Castillo. They’re at a place in the standings where every win added is enormous for their postseason chances, and of course they haven’t been to the postseason since Ichiro’s rookie year. Plus they kept Castillo away from potential postseason opponents (like the Yankees). Here is the Yankees’ equivalent of the trade package:

• SS Noelvi Marte: SS Anthony Volpe
• SS Edwin Arroyo: SS Oswald Peraza
• RHP Levi Stoudt: RHP Randy Vasquez
• RHP Andrew Moore: RHP Jack Neely (an interesting enough bullpen prospect)

(That Andrew Moore is the not same Andrew Moore who gave up that titanic home run to Judge a few years ago. This Andrew Moore was a 14th round pick last year.)

There’s definitely a hint of “we’re trying to get to the postseason for the first time in a generation” desperation there. My trade package is not a perfect equivalent – Marte and Arroyo are both in Single-A while Volpe and Peraza are at the upper levels – but it’s in the ballpark. It’s a top 10-15 prospect and a top 50 prospect, plus some lottery tickets arms. It’s a hefty package.

Joel Sherman reports the Yankees told the Reds that Volpe was not available, and given what the Mariners gave up, I don’t see how the Yankees could have gotten it done in that case. Maybe the Reds really like Peraza or Jasson Dominguez, but Volpe is pretty clearly the top guy in the farm system, and the Reds were able to get Seattle’s Volpe.

Mark Feinsand says the Yankees were “close” on Castillo and I don’t know what that means exactly, but I’m so sick of hearing the Yankees are “close” on players. We heard it all offseason. Either you got the player you wanted or you failed. Saying “we tried” afterward doesn’t impress anyone. The “we tried” gimmick is happening way too often around these parts nowadays.

Giving up Volpe would have hurt, but if you’re going to trade him, Castillo is the kinda player you give him up to get. The Yankees are stuck in a gray area where they want impact players but don’t want to trade top prospects or push payroll to Dodgers/Mets levels. I’m not sure what the third option is. Castillo is just the latest difference-maker to wind up with the Not Yankees.

Angels entertaining Ohtani trade talks

According to Heyman and Sherman, the Angels are telling teams they’re willing to listen to trade offers for anyone, including Shohei Ohtani. That doesn’t mean an Ohtani trade is likely, but they aren’t hanging up either. He is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next year (that’s going to be the most fascinating arbitration case ever), then he hits free agency.

Just asking around, the consensus is Angels owner Arte Moreno won’t approve an Ohtani trade at the deadline because he is by far the team’s biggest draw, and the PR and gate revenue hit would be massive given their disaster season. An offseason trade is more likely, if it happens at all. Ohtani says he wants to win and the Angels aren’t winning. He’s gonna leave as a free agent.

“The question isn’t whether I want to stay. I have to do what I’m supposed to do. Regardless of where I am, what I do doesn’t change,” Ohtani told Sarah Valenzuela through an interpreter last week. “Of course, there’s the part of me that feels grateful of how the team has taken care of me. I like the fans too of course. Right now, as long as I’m with the Angels – and it was like that today too – I want to do my best to win each and every game. There’s tomorrow to think about too and I have to turn the page.”

It’s a pipe dream but holy crap Ohtani would be perfect for the 2022-23 Yankees. I mean, he’s perfect for every team, but especially the Yankees. He’s the lefty power bat they need and the impact starter they need. Look at this guy (full-size image):

Ohtani is not quite doing what he did last season, but he’s obviously been excellent. Pitcher Ohtani has surpassed Hitter Ohtani and on a rate basis he is Clayton Kershaw on the mound and Julio Rodriguez at the plate. Just think about Gerrit Cole and Ohtani as a 1-2 rotation punch in October, with this lineup supporting them:

1. 3B DJ LeMahieu
2. DH Shohei Ohtani
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. 1B Anthony Rizzo
5. RF Giancarlo Stanton
6. LF Andrew Benintendi
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
9. C Jose Trevino

That leaves Aaron Hicks (if you need to start a rally with his OBP skills) and Matt Carpenter (if you need to take a shot at the short porch) as pinch-hitting options for Kiner-Falefa and Trevino in the late innings. Would the Yankees play Stanton in right field every single day? No. Would they do it 2-3 days in a row between off-days in the postseason? I would hope so.

A rival executive told Heyman and Sherman the Angels want “something like your top four prospects” in an Ohtani trate and, uh, okay? Think what it would cost you to get 1.5 years of an All-Star hitter and 1.5 years of an ace starter separately. Could you realistically get, say, Ian Happ and Castillo without putting a big dent in your farm system?

Ohtani is a +4 WAR hitter and +4 WAR pitcher rolled into one and his value goes beyond the combined +8 WAR. He does two jobs with one roster spot, leaving you an extra spot to use on someone else (including potentially another +4 WAR hitter or +4 WAR pitcher!). Then there’s his unmatched off-the-field value. This dude sells tickets and merchandise, drives television ratings, the works. He is a money-printer. A marketing department’s dream. This is me in meme form:

I know Ohtani turned down the Yankees years ago – he wouldn’t even listen to their pitch – but he wouldn’t have a say in a trade. I don’t think he’s intimidated by the big market but I guess there’s a chance you get stuck with a Joey Gallo/Sonny Gray clone rather than a Happ/Castillo clone. I’d be willing to roll the dice. Ohtani is a marvel and he has been the game’s single biggest story the last two years. He’s used to the attention and he thrives in it. I don’t worry about him at all.

We know this much: the Yankees wanted Ohtani. They maxed out their international bonus pool so they could pay him and were ready to roll out the red carpet a few years ago. I can’t imagine they covet him less now. Well, anyway, I’ve spent too much time talking about something that won’t happen. I don’t think Ohtani is getting traded before the deadline. I suspect he is going to dominate the hot stove league this winter though.

Giants ready to sell?

Having lost eight of their last 11 games and 24 of their last 38 games, and falling four games behind the third Wild Card spot, the Giants appear ready to sell, according to Sherman. They are willing to discuss basically anyone except righty Logan Webb, though many of their veterans have full no-trade protection and seem disinclined to leave at this point in their careers.

Mike Yastrzemski would’ve been a nice little outfield target prior to the Benintendi trade (ditto Joc Pederson, who’s now on the concussion list). For the Yankees, San Francisco’s most appealing trade candidate is veteran lefty Carlos Rodon, who owns a 3.00 ERA (2.29 FIP) with 31.9% strikeouts and 7.9% walks (but only 37.3% grounders) through 123 innings.

Similar to the Yankees, the Giants emphasize an east-west sinker/sweeper pitching style, but Rodon is the exception. He’s a north-south elevated four-seamer guy and that still works very well. Teams are starting to move away from it but it is still effective, and it is for Rodon. I can’t imagine the Yankees would close the door on Rodon because he’s not a sinker guy.

(Rodon has a 0.51 HR/9 and 5.6% HR/FB this season. It was 1.00 and 9.9% from 2018-21. He is bound to give up more homers outside spacious Oracle Park and the NL West in general.)

A couple things to know about Rodon. First, he can opt out his contract after the season and you have to expect him to do that as long as he stays healthy. His contract calls for a $22.5M salary next year should he stick around. Basically, if Rodon stays healthy, he’s a rental. If he gets hurt again, you’re stuck with him at a big salary next year. The contract is a bit of a drawback.

Second, Rodon’s injury history is scary. He’s had elbow and shoulder problems for years, and he is all but certain to throw 135 innings this year for the first time since 2016. Rodon had shoulder trouble last year and the White Sox had to handle him very carefully in the second half (averaged 9.3 days of rest between starts in the second half). He’s another starter the Yankees would have to monitor in August and September to ensure he’s at his best in October.

And third, the White Sox foolishly did not make Rodon the qualifying offer last offseason, so the Giants can make it this offseason. That means you have to offer up at least the equivalent of a supplemental first round pick to get the Giants’ attention. There is some “keep him and he gets hurt and you can forget about that draft pick” risk, but there figures to be enough demand prior to the deadline to make up for it.

I’ve said this before and it’s worth saying again: October is the priority, not the rest of the regular season. The Yankees want players (or should want players) who really move the needle in the postseason, not guys who can help them win during these next two months. When he’s healthy, Rodon is a difference-maker. He can dominate even great lineups on his best days and that’s someone I want on the mound in the most important games.

Castillo is off the board, making Montas the best available starter. Rodon is next up for me. The injury history makes Rodon a boom or bust candidate and that injury risk will be baked into the cake when trade offers are presented to the Giants. He can pitch near the top of a contender’s rotation and that’s what the Yankees need. Not an innings-eating depth guy. I’m in.

At least three teams in on Gallo

Bob Nightengale says three teams have interest in Joey Gallo: Brewers, Padres, and Rays. They all pursued Gallo prior to the trade deadline last year, so that tracks. Brendan Kuty hears the Yankees would like to send Gallo to a small market team where “there’s no pressure,” but my guess is they’re sending him to whichever team offers the best return.

Would the Yankees really trade Gallo to Tampa? I think they prefer not to but would if the Rays make the best offer. The AL East race is basically over, so Gallo won’t come back to haunt the Yankees that way. The Yankees and Rays could meet in the postseason, but that’s so far down the line I wouldn’t worry about it. (The Rays traded for David Peralta over the weekend and are less likely to pursue Gallo now anyway.)

The Padres remain the best and most likely landing spot for Gallo because Padres GM AJ Preller loves him and because San Diego badly needs outfield help. Even if they swing a blockbuster for Soto, the Padres still have the room to bring in Gallo as a buy very low candidate. This much is clear: Gallo is in his final hours as a Yankee. I wish it had worked out better, but it didn’t.

(I’ve heard secondhand the Dodgers want Gallo, though apparently the Yankees don’t see them as a trade match. If Gallo goes to Los Angeles, it would likely be as part of a three-team deal. I don’t get it either.)

Rockies extend Bard

I gave the Rockies too much credit. When I wrote about Daniel Bard as a possible trade target last week, I said the Rockies “do weird things but I think even they realize they have to trade Bard, a 37-year-old rental with zero chance to be part of the next contending Rockies team.” Sure enough, they did a weird thing. Rather than trade him, the Rockies signed Bard to a two-year extension worth $19M over the weekend. Never change, Rockies*.

"Hopefully signing me, they're committed to winning here over the next two years and not, you know, any kind of rebuild,” a blissfully oblivious Bard told Max Wilcox after signing the extension. “I'm excited to be part of it. I love my teammates here. I love the guys I get to work with every day. It's a really cool group that supports each other.”

Good for Bard. His comeback is remarkable. He battled the yips with the Red Sox all those years ago and was at one point retired, and working in player development with the Diamondbacks. Bard made it all the way back, found a home in Colorado, and has secured at least $26.325M in contracts since unretiring. That’s pretty great. What a story Bard is.

As for the Yankees, Bard was arguably the best rental reliever on the trade market, and now he’s no longer available. It’s been a while since the Yankees paid a premium for a top rental reliever (since Zack Britton, and that was hardly paying a premium) and I’m not sure they had interest in Bard anyway, but now he’s off the market. They have to look elsewhere for bullpen help.

* I mean it, never change. The Rockies are a throwback to my youth, when teams were bad and didn’t know why instead of being bad on purpose. It’s refreshing, honestly. The Rockies are like a control group, telling us how a 1990s front office would fare in the 2020s.

Yankees trying to trade Andujar

And just to wrap up, the Yankees are trying to trade Miguel Andujar somewhere he’d get a better opportunity, according to Heyman. Brian Cashman said the Yankees value Andujar as depth and won’t give him away, but they also seem disinterested in using him as anything but depth. Miggy Missiles is hitting .299/.345/.502 (122 wRC+) with an 11.2% strikeout rate in 59 Triple-A games.

I think the best case for an Andujar trade is a low minors lottery ticket who is years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility, which is what the Yankees got for Luke Voit. One way or another, Andujar is a goner in the next 3-4 months. Either they trade him at the deadline or non-tender him in the offseason. Too bad. Think of all the at-bats wasted on Gallo and Josh Donaldson this year.

3. Injury updates. The Yankees currently have eight players on the injured list (five on the 60-day injured list), and I’m surprised it’s that few. I would’ve guessed they were up to 10-11 players on the injured list. Domingo German’s return and Ron Marinaccio’s return must’ve thrown me off. Anyway, here’s the latest on the injured Yankees.

King has surgery, Tommy John still possible

As expected, Mike King had surgery to repair his fractured elbow last week, though he is not yet out of the woods with regards to Tommy John surgery. Apparently they need to let the fracture heal before they can fully evaluate the ligament, and that’s still a good two months away. Huh. I guess the fracture is near the ligament? I dunno.

“I think in 8-10 weeks or so, when this heals, they’ll revisit what they think from a ligament standpoint,” Aaron Boone told Randy Miller last week. “There are differing opinions there and they want to compare it to old things and see where it is as this heals. I don’t know all the intricacies of it, but I think they just will have a better idea of it with some more time.”

I don’t know anything about elbows and shoulders beyond what I’ve picked up covering baseball and this is one of those “well why don’t you just look at the ligament now???” situations. I’m sure there’s a reason they have to wait 8-10 weeks to evaluate the ligament. I have no idea what it is, but I’m sure there’s a valid and good and important reason to wait.

The thing is, the 8-10 weeks won’t change King’s timetable. If he has Tommy John surgery now, he’ll return in Spring Training 2024. And if he has Tommy John surgery in 8-10 weeks, he’ll return in … Spring Training 2024. It’s a 14-16 month rehab and either way it takes him into the 2023-24 offseason. A two-month head start on rehab would be nice, but if they can’t evaluate the ligament now, they can’t evaluate the ligament now.

The part about “differing opinions” doesn’t sound great but every pitcher, even one as relatively young as King, is going to have some wonky stuff going on his elbow. The question is whether it is wonky enough to require surgery, or is a-okay to pitch. MRIs are not always definitive. They are like art and open to interpretation. One person’s red flag is another’s non-issue.

Hopefully the ligament is sound and King doesn’t need Tommy John surgery, and that was all a waste of digital ink. In that case he could be ready for next Spring Training. And if King needs Tommy John surgery, then what can you do? Teams are better at keeping pitchers healthy these days, but at some point all you can do is keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best.

Severino to begin throwing Monday

Luis Severino will begin a throwing program Monday, Day 15 of his two-week shutdown period. I assume it will be a normal play catch, throw bullpen sessions, throw live batting practice progression, though Severino wasn’t shut down that long. As long as things go well, it could be a truncated throwing program. I guess we’ll find out.

"He's doing well. I think right now, if everything goes according to plan the next couple of days, he'll start throwing on Monday,” Boone told Max Goodman over the weekend. “Been down a couple of weeks so I'm not sure exactly (when he’ll return), but we’re just going to keep progressing through, making sure we're good at every step.”

Starting a throwing program is obviously good news but it does not mean Severino is completely out of the woods. He started throwing programs only to be shut down and suffer a setback a few times from 2019-21, so while this marks progress, there’s still a way to go. The Yankees can be cautious with Severino given the big AL East lead and should be cautious given his injury history.

Stanton will begin baseball activities soon

Sounds like everything is going well with Giancarlo Stanton’s recovery from Achilles tendinitis and he could resume baseball activities later this week. The Yankees tend to build Stanton up slowly, so even though he’s only been on the injured list a week, I don’t think he’ll jump right back into taking batting practice and running around in outfield drills. It’ll be a slower build up.

“I would say probably in the next couple days he’ll start, whether it’s throwing and probably doing some tee work and upper body, hitting and stuff like that,” Boone told Greg Joyce over the weekend. “Just talking to him briefly (Saturday), he’s definitely encouraged by the last few days. The last few days, he’s noticed improvement and I think (they) have moved the needle how he would have hoped. Hopefully that starts to pick up speed this week.”

Following this three-game home series with the Mariners the Yankees head out on a nine-game, 10-day road trip that takes them to the West Coast. I wonder if Stanton will head to Tampa during that time to do his rehab work? Then he could rejoin the Yankees for their next homestand on Aug. 15th, which would match the team’s initial 2-3 week timetable. I guess we’ll see.

As with Severino, Stanton’s injury history is long and scary, and the Yankees should be cautious during his rehab work. The division lead allows them to do just that. I’m not sure how many more Josh Donaldson at-bats I can sit through, so the sooner Stanton gets back the better, but the big picture is the priority. Get him fully healthy before unleashing him.

Britton will face hitters soon

Zack Britton is expected to face hitters in a live batting practice setting for the first time as part of his Tommy John surgery rehab within the next week or so. He’ll do that a few times before going on a minor league rehab assignment. Britton is pushing to return in September and given where he is now, he figures to return in the second half of the month, not early September.

“I want him to get well,” Boone told Bryan Hoch. “Hopefully that somehow coincides with our season and him getting back and being a factor, but I don’t want to put that expectation on it.”

Returning in September and being effective are two different things, and Britton won’t have much time to show everyone he can reliably get outs. His best case scenario is what, 10-12 innings in September? Is that enough to reenter the Circle of Trust™ and grab a postseason roster spot? Maybe it is. The big division lead will allow the Yankees to let Britton showcase himself.

For now, Britton is close to facing hitters again and reaching another important milestone in his rehab work. As I’ve been saying, I’m not expecting anything from Britton in September. Not even one inning. I’ll consider anything he gives the Yankees a bonus. If he pitches well enough to be on the postseason roster, goodness, what a lift that would be.

Garcia returns, demoted to Double-A

Deivi Garcia, who had been on the Triple-A Scranton injured list since May 31st after exiting a start with numbness in his fingers, was activated last week and demoted to Double-A Somerset*. His first start back went very well: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K while on a 50-ish pitch limit. One of the two hits was a bunt single and Deivi retired the final 12 batters he faced. Supposedly he hit 97 mph. Here’s video.

* Fun fact: Garcia is the sixth youngest player on Somerset’s roster. Only Everson Pereira, Jeisson Rosario, Anthony Volpe, Will Warren, and Austin Wells are younger, and Warren and Wells are younger than Garcia by only a few weeks. It feels like Deivi has been around forever, but he turned only 23 in May. Jordan Montgomery was still a year away from making his MLB debut when he was Garcia’s age.

There was a legitimate injury at one point, but Garcia was back pitching in late June, and a chunk of the injured list time was used to get him right (or try to get him right) mechanically. Deivi has been a mechanical mess since last year and once he got healthy, the Yankees used the injured list stint as an opportunity to work with him in a zero stakes environment. Did it work? No idea, but that’s what happened.

“I think that he’s just trying to navigate himself in the Triple-A level. He got all the way to the big leagues and was flying high,” Brian Cashman told Miller last weekend. “He’s working on making some adjustments now because the success has not continued. So he’s been punched in the mouth a little bit. He’s got to respond and make an adjustment, and we’re working with him on doing so.”

I’m not normally a conspiracy theorist but I don’t think it’s a coincidence Garcia returned in time to make one (1) start before the trade deadline, and was demoted to a level where he was likely to have success in that start. It wasn’t so much a trade showcase as it was a proof of life outing. Deivi’s been tucked away behind closed doors the last few weeks. The Yankees made sure to remind everyone he still exists before the deadline, and show that he’s healthy.

Garcia is in his final minor league option year, so it’s MLB or waivers next year. Even with last week’s promising return, he doesn’t have much trade value after the last two years, so I’m not sure he’ll be moved before the deadline. The Yankees might just keep him, see what’s what in Spring Training, and go from there. At least Deivi’s back pitching in games. That’s good.

Castro still weeks away

It’ll be a while until Miguel Castro rejoins the bullpen. He has been on the injured list with a shoulder strain since July 10th and doesn’t seem all that close to beginning a throwing program. Given how much time he’s missed and how much time he’ll need to build back up, there’s a chance we won’t see Castro again until rosters expand in September.

"He's a longer no-throw scenario than Sevy. So he'll continue to get evaluated each week where he's at,” Boone told Goodman. “He's probably still at least a couple of weeks from throwing. We'll just see. He's a couple of weeks from throwing so he'll be a little while longer."

Castro has an electric arm but is basically a middle reliever/setup man ‘tweener, and truth be told, the Yankees are probably better with Clarke Schmidt in the bullpen. There’s something to be said for stashing Schmidt as rotation depth in Triple-A, but I feel like that’s a waste. He’s a big leaguer and should be in the big leagues, and I think he’s better than Castro right now.

That said, I’d rather Castro be healthy than not healthy, and it’s a bummer this shoulder injury is sabotaging his contract year. Castro will be a free agent after the season and an injury like this is the kinda thing that could turn a potential multi-year deal into a one-year prove yourself contract. Hopefully he gets healthy and shoves when he returns. Would be good for the Yankees and good for Castro as well.

Rortvedt lives

Ben Rortvedt, the other piece of the Donaldson/Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade, is currently on a minor league rehab assignment. He suffered an oblique injury in Spring Training, then needed minor knee surgery after starting a rehab assignment in May. Rortvedt is 7-for-38 (.184) in 11 rehab games this time around, the last seven of which were with Triple-A Scranton.

Position players get a 20-day rehab window and the 20th day of Rortvedt’s rehab assignment was Sunday. Either he’s going to be activated off the 60-day injured list Monday (and thus require a 40-man roster move) or the All-Star break doesn’t count against the 20 days, and the Yankees still have a few rehab days to play with. I feel like it’s the former, but I’m not 100% certain.

Kyle Higashioka has not been good this season, though I don’t get the sense the Yankees are planning to make a change behind the plate. The most likely outcome (by a lot) is the Yankees option Rortvedt to Triple-A once he’s activated. He’s missed just about the entire season and needs at-bats, and he’ll get them in Triple-A. At least Rortvedt is finally healthy.

Ridings likely to miss 2022

Forgotten reliever Stephen Ridings is still down with a right shoulder impingement. He doesn’t need surgery and has been playing catch, otherwise his progress has been slow. “It’s just been a battle. He hasn’t been on the mound or anything. He’s still not doing much,” Boone told Hoch last month. It’s now August. At this point I assume we won’t see Ridings at all in 2022.

Ridings has been on the 60-day injured list all year and collecting those sweet big league paychecks (and service time), but I can’t help but wonder whether he’ll be on the 40-man roster chopping block after the season. A 27-year-old reliever with a very limited track record coming off a pretty serious shoulder injury? Eh. I’m not saying the Yankees want to cut Ridings, but he might find himself on the wrong end of the numbers crunch. Sucks.

4. 2022 draft signings. Monday is the 2022 draft signing deadline and it came and went with no drama. Both for the Yankees and league-wide. There was no Kumar Rocker situation.

Here is my draft recap. The Yankees signed all 20 draft picks, which is a thing that will probably happen regularly in the 20-round era. It was impossible to sign everyone in the 40-50 round days. Here is the signing bonus information and bonus pool breakdown (full-size image):

(As a reminder, anything over $125,000 given to a player selected after the tenth round counts against the bonus pool. That also applies to undrafted free agents.)

The Yankees once again exceeded their bonus pool but stopped short of the 5% overage that triggers the next set of penalties and costs you next year’s first round pick (something no team has ever done). To be precise, the Yankees exceeded their bonus pool 4.5%. Maybe they’ll give that remaining $30,530 to an undrafted free agent(s).

There’s something weird going on with the $2,500 in savings with Vrieling, Reyzelman, and Schlittler*. The uniform player contract includes a $2,500 bonus for executing the contract and some teams report it as part of the overall signing bonus. Others, like the Yankees the last few years, do not. The player still gets his money. It’s just a fancy accounting trick to save a little bonus pool space.

* It looks like Hampton and Keating took the $2,500 haircut too, right? They’re both $2,500 short of nice round number bonuses. Ditto Harvey and Fristoe with their overslot bonuses in the later rounds.

My guess is the Yankees did the $2,500 thing with everyone in the top 10 rounds, the rounds tied directly to the bonus pool, but the bonuses were reported inaccurately. This isn’t a big deal. It would just be weird to be the $2,500 thing with those specific players and not all of them. If the Yankees did indeed do it with everyone in the top 10 rounds, they have an extra $17,500 in bonus pool space to play with for undrafted free agents.

As for Brock Porter, the top ranked high school pitcher who the Yankees were connected to in the days leading up to the draft, he received a $3.7M bonus as the No. 109 pick. The Yankees passed on him with the No. 25, No. 61, and No. 100 picks. It would have taken some bonus pool gymnastics to get it done, but it could have been done (assuming Porter was willing to sign with the Yankees for $3.7M). Some possibilities:

• Take Porter in the first round and a cheap college senior ($50,000 bonus or so) in the second round, and funnel the savings to Porter.
• Take Porter in the first round, Thorpe in the second round, and cheap college seniors in the third and fourth rounds, and give the savings to Porter.
• Take Jones in the first round, Porter in the second round, and extremely cheap college seniors ($10,000 bonuses) in rounds 3-10, and spend the savings on Porter.

Any of those scenarios worth it? The middle bullet point looks appealing to me. I’m a high-end talent guy. I’d rather one top guy than multiple second tier players. Punting the third and fourth rounds isn’t ideal, but it is the third and fourth rounds, and the expected return after pick 100 is minimal (a +1 WAR player). I’d punt the third and fourth round to get Porter, but that’s just me.

Anyway, the Yankees signed all their draft picks this year and mostly played it straight, with only a few overslot bonuses. They spent close to the 5% overage again as well. The 75% tax on the overage works out to $218,175. So, all-in, the Yankees spent $8,187,675 on the draft between bonuses and tax this year, or almost exactly what the Diamondbacks gave No. 2 pick Druw Jones ($8,189,400). That’s the system for you.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)