July 25th, 2022: King, Judge, Astros, German, Abreu, Bullpen Trade Targets, Gallo, Prospects, International Draft

The trade deadline is a week away and the rumor mill should heat up soon now that MLB and the MLBPA failed to reach an international draft agreement, and the qualifying offer system will remain (more on that later). Trade rumors are coming. Now here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday night since it’s an off-day.

1. King lost for the season. The pitching injuries are mounting and the Yankees suffered their biggest loss yet over the weekend. Ace setup man Mike King is done for the year with a fractured right elbow. He needs surgery to repair the fracture and is still going through tests to determine whether there’s ligament damage. Tommy John surgery remains a possibility.

“It’s getting a couple of opinions and making sure we’re all buttoned up, and then obviously you have decisions to make,” Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert over the weekend. “But the one thing we know is obviously the elbow fracture was confirmed and that’s going to be something that definitely needs to be taken care of.”

I feel so bad for King. He’s having a breakout season, one in which he would not have been out of place at last week’s All-Star Game, and now he suffers a major injury. Everything has to be put on hold. And if there is ligament damage and he needs Tommy John surgery, King will likely be sidelined until 2024. Hopefully that’s not the case, but given the way King reacted after throwing the pitch, I dunno.

Fracturing your elbow throwing a pitch the way King did is certainly unusual, though he does have a history of bone issues with his elbow. King missed the first three months of 2019 with a stress reaction in his elbow (and a setback), and when he returned that July, his stuff was down. He didn’t get all the way back to his pre-injury form until 2020.

(King wouldn’t have pitched Friday had Aroldis Chapman not given up a three-run homer an inning earlier, but as much as I’d like to blame Chapman for King’s injury, I can’t. You must have some pretty gnarly stuff going on in your elbow to fracture it on a pitch. King’s elbow was probably going to go at some point. If not Friday, another day.)

King is on the short list of the game's best relievers (he was third among relievers in WAR and sixth in win probability when he got hurt) so, by definition, he is close to irreplaceable. I thought the Yankees needed a reliever before King got hurt. Now they absolutely need one, and really two. And not run of the mill depth arms. They need high leverage relievers for the late innings.

It’s probably time to prep Ken Waldichuk for a bullpen role too (i.e. give him a few Triple-A relief appearances to get used to it). He’s at 70 innings this year after throwing 110 innings last year. I’d like him to get to 150 innings this year, but the MLB team takes priority, and the MLB team badly needs bullpen help. Waldichuk’s invisiball/sweeper combo is legit (fourth highest strikeout rate in the minors). He can help the big league team, so let him.

With King (and Chad Green, who also blew out his elbow at Camden Yards) out, Boone’s bullpen decisions will be that much more important and impactful, and that’s not great. Case in point: Shane Greene in the eighth inning of a one-run game Saturday. The early-2010s farm system reunion is fun, but Greene at 90-92 mph ain’t gonna work. He allowed a two-run homer to put the game out of reach and was cut from the roster Sunday for Ron Marinaccio.

Chapman can’t be trusted and Jonathan Loaisiga still isn’t right. The Circle of Trust™ right now is Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta (and Marinaccio? and Clarke Schmidt?), and Peralta missed the last few games with a back issue. Earlier this season the bullpen was as deep and trustworthy as it has been at any point in the last 10 years. Now it’s basically Holmes and cross your fingers.

One reliever won’t make or break the season but King’s injury is significant. He only pitches in close games and he’s been great, and now a lesser reliever has to cover those innings. The margin for error is so small and the difference between King and his replacement could be larger in the standings than what WAR says (and even bigger than that in the postseason). That’s the nature of high leverage bullpen work.

Hopefully King’s ligament is sound and he only has to recover from the fracture, in which case he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. And if it is Tommy John surgery, then it’s Tommy John surgery. Either way, King is done for the season. The best way to replace him is getting Chapman and Loaisiga on track (and calling up Waldichuk?). Even then, the Yankees need bullpen help from outside the organization.

“We’ll continue to assess the roster, but King is a really important member of our bullpen,” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin over the weekend, stating the obvious. “Ultimately, I’ve got from now until Aug. 2.”

2. Weekend thoughts. Even after winning two of three in Baltimore, the Yankees are 5-8 in their last 13 games and 17-15 in their last 32 games, so that’s more than a month of .500-ish ball. At times the Yankees have looked positively 2021-y as well (like Saturday). A few weeks of .500 play isn’t the end of the world but I still don’t like it. There are some things to clean up and obvious roster needs to address. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Judge and the pursuit of 60 homers

I really should’ve done something looking at Aaron Judge’s pursuit of 60 home runs in my second half preview. Judge is officially out of his slump, going 8-for-13 (.615) with two doubles and three home runs against the Orioles this past weekend. He is 21-for-58 (.362) with eight homers in his last 15 games. So yeah, that slump in late June and early July is capital-O Over.

“I’ve always said a good hitter is a guy with a high average,” Judge told Dan Martin over the weekend. “That’s what I saw in a lot of greats – Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera – they hit .300 and the power came with it. It’s always a goal of mine to try to hit above .300. I’m working towards it.”

Judge is hitting .294/.376/.650 (183 wRC+) with 37 – 37! – home runs through 97 team games. Kyle Schwarber has 30 homers, Yordan Alvarez and Austin Riley each have 28 homers, and no other player has more than 25 homers. Judge is lapping the field. A few other home run nuggets:

• Judge already has eight multi-homer games in 2022. That’s tied for the most in a single season in franchise history with Gleyber Torres (2019), Alex Rodriguez (2017), Mickey Mantle (1961), and Babe Ruth (1927). Judge has 65 games to break the record.
• Barry Bonds and Luis Gonzalez in 2001 are the last players to hit 40 homers before Aug. 1st. Judge needs three homers in six games this week to do it. And remember, the season started a week late because of the lockout.
• Judge’s 37 homers are tied with 1920 Ruth for the fifth most before Aug. 1st in Yankees history. Only 1928 Ruth (41), 1961 Roger Maris (40), 1961 Mantle (39), and 1921 Ruth (38) are ahead of him. (A-Rod had 35 homers before Aug. 1st in 2007.)
• Judge is the first Yankee with back-to-back 35-homer seasons since Curtis Granderson (2011-12). He’s one of only three righty hitters with back-to-back 35-homer seasons for the Yankees, joining A-Rod (2004-08) and Alfonso Soriano (2002-03).

The eight homers in the last 15 games barrage has put Judge back on pace for 60+ homers (61.7, to be exact). 60 home runs has been done only eight times in history and only twice in American League history (Ruth in 1927 and Maris in 1961), and Maris’ 61 dingers in 1961 are still the single-season record in the AL. Judge does have a shot at history this year.

Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 home runs in 2017, the ninth highest total in history, and he only had 32 homers through 97 team games that year. He was a good deal behind Judge’s current pace. Stanton then went on a rampage and hit 21 homers in his next 34 games (and 30 homers in 48 games at one point). A binge like that would go a long way to getting Judge to 60+ homers.

Even if Judge doesn’t hit 60 homers, the chase in September will be a lot of fun. And I wonder how the Yankees will handle that. They’re all-in on load management and the ultimate goal is the World Series, not an individual accomplishment (Judge himself would tell you that). Would they really rest Judge while he’s chasing 60 homers, even with a huge division lead? I can’t see it.

“I try not to think about it, like I’ve said before,” Judge told Martin about chasing 60 homers.

60 homers or no 60 homers, Judge is having an MVP season and he leads position players in fWAR. He’s second in bWAR and among the league leaders in both win and championship probability added. For those who prefer old school stats, Judge is right behind Pete Alonso for the MLB RBI lead, and he’s hitting .360 with runners in scoring position. And he plays good defense at a premium position. The guy is the total package. A superstar, through and through.

“It’s incredible,” Nestor Cortes told Martin over the weekend. “Everything he does, from the moment he steps into the clubhouse to the moment he’s out there stretching to when he’s playing the game, everything about him is excellence.”

Swept in Houston

Told ya Thursday’s doubleheader had a chance to be the most annoying day of the season. The Yankees got swept by the Astros, first coming back in the ninth inning of Game 1 only to lose on a walk-off, then getting knocked around in Game 2. The Yankees went 2-5 against the Astros this year and did not throw a single pitch with a lead in the seven games (both wins were walk-offs).

“It sucks anytime you lose,” Aaron Boone told Edwin Perez after the doubleheader. “A tough day for us, and we have to get over it and take care of business.”

Not having a single lead in the seven games – not one! – just means DJ LeMahieu is going to park the first pitch of the ALCS in the seats, right? Right??? In all seriousness, it doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of things because the counter resets in the postseason. If the roles were reversed, we’d be gloating like crazy, but it still wouldn’t mean much.

That said, not holding a single lead made for a frustrating and frankly dispiriting watch. The Yankees played from behind constantly and the Astros controlled the seven games outside about four total innings in the two walk-off wins. This is brutal:

NYY vs. Astros: .151/.268/.292 (65 wRC+) with 26.3 K%
NYY vs. all other teams: .253/.336/.456 (125 wRC+) with 21.6 K%

NYY RHB vs. Astros: .178/.267/.338 (75 wRC+) with 26.0 K% (better than I thought!)
NYY RHB vs. all other teams: .265/.337/.456 (125 wRC+) with 20.5 K%

That .151 AVG is the worst in a season series of at least seven games in Yankees history. That’s against any opponent, not just the Astros. Katie Sharp says it’s the second worst ever in a season series of at least seven games, better than only the .147 AVG the Giants put up against the Cubs in 2016. The Cubs beat the Giants in four games in the NLDS the year, but the Giants hit .252 in the series, so … hooray?

Houston’s pitching staff seems designed specifically to beat the Yankees. And it works, because the Yankees keep losing to the Astros. Bad games and bad series happen, but the bad games and bad series against the Astros this year looked exactly like the bad games and bad series that sent the Yankees home when they played Houston in the postseason the last few years.

The best thing you can say about the seven games is every game was close. That’s not some badge of honor – that’s something Twins fans tell themselves after getting swept in the ALDS again – but it is true. The Yankees and Astros are closely matched, which means the upcoming trade deadline is hugely important. The Yankees have to do something to separate themselves.

“Just about every game could have gone either way,” Stanton told Perez. “You have two great teams. One makes a mistake, the other one capitalizes.”

The Game 1 win clinched the home field advantage tiebreaker for the Astros and the Game 2 win brought them to within 2.5 games of the Yankees. They’re now 1.5 games back, and for the Yankees, that 1.5-game lead is functionally a 0.5-game lead because a tie does them no good. They have to finish ahead of the Astros to host them in a potential postseason series.

The Astros have a favorable remaining schedule (36% of their remaining games are against the Angels, Athletics, and Rangers) and I fear it’s only a matter of time until they pass the Yankees for good. If it happens, it happens, and it will be because the Yankees played .500 ball for a month and didn’t win more head-to-head games against Houston.

Unless another team beats the Astros in the ALDS, the road to the World Series goes through Houston. They’re the defending American League champs, they’ve won three of the last five AL pennants, and they keep beating the Yankees. The Yankees have to do something at the trade deadline to put themselves over the top. Status quo will likely result in another early October exit.

“The narrative is not going to change until you beat them in the playoffs,” Boone told Perez. “If we happen to come back here in October, we’re going to show up. We’re going to expect to win. We think we’re really good and they’re really good.”

The return of Domingo HRman

Domingo German made his not-so-triumphant return to the rotation in Houston and was bad. He retired only half the 18 batters he faced, allowed four extra-base hits (two doubles, two homers), and got only five swings and misses among 58 pitches. It’s not often a pitcher puts up -0.3 WAR in three innings, but German managed to do it.

“There was some good in there, but he made some mistakes. He was a little in and out today,” Boone told Martin. “He’s been out for a while and unfortunately that first start was against one of the best teams in the league. You play the hand you’re dealt and he battled through three innings as best he could.”

The Yankees started German against the Astros to give Jameson Taillon extra rest (that was an organizational decision, not a Boone decision) and in the grand scheme of things, yeah, good move. With the division lead being what it is, the Yankees have the luxury of prioritizing the big picture instead of chasing a win on a Thursday in July.

But what has German done to earn the right to put directly into the rotation? He had a 4.60 ERA (4.51 FIP) and a 1.71 HR/9 from 2018-21. He’s had some stretches where he’s been really good, sure, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen one of those, and it’s not like this is some kid who might be part of the future. German turns 30 next week.

JP Sears, who was up as the 27th man for the doubleheader (and thus didn’t burn one of his two remaining options for this year when he was sent back down), has pitched very well this season, including 5+ scoreless innings in his two spot starts. Why did German start and Sears come out of the bullpen? That seems backwards given what we know about each pitcher in 2022.

German’s pitch data in his three innings was pretty much exactly in line with last year, so I guess the good news is the shoulder injury didn’t take anything away. Give him a few starts to get his feet under him and maybe he can be a league average innings guy. But can he even be that? It’s been a while. I’m not sure the juice is worth the squeeze.

I see German as a depth arm. An inventory guy who can soak up innings down the stretch so the Yankees don’t overload the pitchers they plan to use in October. With Luis Severino out a few weeks, this is the perfect opportunity to give Sears or Clarke Schmidt a look. Put them in the rotation, see what they can do, and use German as the long man out of the bullpen.

German is lined up to pitch Wednesday but Boone didn’t commit to giving him that start – "With the off-day (Monday), we may want to change some things around," Boone told Kristie Ackert – and they could start Taillon on normal rest. Either way, they’ll need a fifth starter at some point this week. I’d rather it be one of the kids (or Luis Castillo!), but the Yankees seem committed to giving German a shot. Like it or not, we’re going to see him again at some point.

Abreu’s possible breakout

Evidence is mounting that the Yankees have unlocked something with Albert Abreu. It’s only 13.1 innings and I won’t declare him fixed yet, but it’s the best 13.1-inning stretch of his admittedly brief big league career, and he’s gradually seeing more important situations. The Yankees clearly have some level of trust in Abreu. His 2022 numbers (full-size image):

More sinkers in the zone and more sinkers in general (with room for even more), and the result is more strikeouts, fewer walks, and less hard contact. The Yankees made several tweaks to unlock Clay Holmes and the biggest (and simplest) was getting him to throw his sinker more. You’ve got this high velocity bowling ball, so throw it! They did it with Holmes and they’re doing it again with Abreu, and in both cases the results followed.

Abreu allowed the winning run to score Saturday night but that was because he threw away a pickoff throw and allowed Jorge Mateo to advance all the way to third. His actual pitches to hitters were good. I’m not all-in on Abreu yet but I am pleasantly surprised at his effectiveness. I thought he was a temporary fill-in, not someone who’d stick around, but clearly the Yankees like his arm.

Mike King’s (and Chad Green’s and Miguel Castro’s) injury and the continued ineffectiveness of Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loaisiga means this is Abreu’s big chance. This is his chance to establish himself as a big leaguer and cement himself in the Circle of Trust™. And the Yankees need him too. Hopefully these 13.1 innings are a sign of things to come and aren’t just one of those randomly good 13.1-inning stretches even bad relievers can have.

Miscellany

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, not Josh Donaldson, pinch-hit with the tying run on second and two outs in the ninth inning of the first game of the Houston doubleheader. And it was absolutely the right move, and not just in hindsight because Kiner-Falefa had the game-tying hit. Contact is a must in that situation and Donaldson is down to .200/.258/.330 (66 wRC+) with a 34.4% strikeout rate against righties since returning from the injured list last month. He gives you less than a two in three chance at contact in that situation. Kiner-Falefa was the best bet to get the bat on the ball and it worked out (final score notwithstanding). Good move, Boonie … LeMahieu is on a serious heater right now (.307/.434/.440 and 158 wRC+ since June 1st) and he is walking a ton. A ton. More than he ever has in his career. He has 37 walks (and 24 strikeouts) in 205 plate appearances since June 1st, or 18.0%, and his 52 walks are already the fourth highest single-season total of his career. His career high is the 73 walks he drew last year, so LeMahieu has a chance to set a new career high in walks for the second straight season. Look at this:

LeMahieu is running far and away the highest walk rate of his career while hitting directly in front of the MVP favorite and MLB home run leader. Goes to show lineup protection is not really a thing, at least not in the traditional sense. Teams build game plans around the pitcher’s strengths and the hitter’s weaknesses, not who’s hitting behind who, and they stick to those game plans. Whatever the game plan is against LeMahieu, it ain’t working. He’s hitting (albeit for not a ton of power) and drawing more walks than at any point in his career … And finally, Sunday was the third time Cortes went at least six innings with no more than one run allowed in his last four starts. He had a rough stretch in June and there appears to be a concerted effort to be more unpredictable. Cortes threw his curveball Sunday for the first time since last May, he’s throwing more sliders and fewer cutters, and he’s upped the frequency of his drop downs and shimmies. This might be worth a deeper investigation at some point, but right now, it seems pretty clear Nestor is doing things to change the scouting report and make hitters uncomfortable after that rough stretch last month.

3. Scouting the Trade Market: Relievers. The Yankees suddenly have a bullpen crisis. Mike King (elbow) and Chad Green (elbow) are done for the season, Miguel Castro (shoulder) will miss a month or so, and Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loaisiga remain ineffective (especially Chapman). The bullpen behind Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta is now a bit shaky.

The trade deadline is a week away and the Yankees clearly need a reliever. I thought they needed a reliever before King got hurt. His injury makes a bullpen addition a necessity, and ideally they’d add two relievers to improve the depth and lessen their reliance on Chapman and Loaisiga. If those guys turn it around, great! If not, at least the Yankees would be covered.

“I don’t want to designate where I’m trying to add,” Brian Cashman told Randy Miller over the weekend. “We’re just going to continue to assess our roster. The King loss is a big loss, obviously. He was a really important member of ‘pen. We just got Loaisiga back. We certainly hope Zack Britton will come back too, and hopefully he can be what he used to be whenever he arrives down the line.”

We’ve already looked at David Robertson, Jorge Lopez, candidates to be the next Clay Holmes, and various Pirates relievers as possible trade targets. Here are a few more potential bullpen trade candidates. Let’s see whether they make sense for the Yankees.

RHP Daniel Bard, Rockies

2022 stats: 1.96 ERA (3.48 FIP), 28.7 K%, 12.0 BB%, 55.8 GB% in 36.2 IP
Contract status: $4.4M in 2022

The Rockies do weird things but I think even they realize they have to trade Bard, a 37-year-old rental with zero chance to be part of the next contending Rockies team. He’s having a dynamite season (Bard leads all relievers in win probability added) and he’s a high velocity sinker/slider guy who misses bats and gets grounders. That has Yankees written all over it.

Bard’s walk rate is higher than you’d like (and a red flag given his battle with the yips years ago) and the .190 BABIP and 83.3% strand rate suggest that ERA is due to rise. Still, Bard’s raw stuff is great and he’s pitched in high leverage situations the last three years. What do the Rockies want for him? Who knows. They’re hard to predict. Bard is a fit though.

RHP Anthony Bass, Marlins

2022 stats: 1.51 ERA (1.59 FIP), 26.5 K%, 4.9 BB%, 37.8 GB% in 41.2 IP
Contract status: $3M in 2022 with $3M club option for 2024 ($1M buyout)

Miami’s offense tied the franchise record with a 37-inning scoreless streak last week and they’re far enough out of the postseason race that selling has to be on the table. Maybe not the important guys they can keep next year, but a reliever like Bass? Sell sell sell, especially since he’s having the best year of his career. His value may never be higher.

I signed Bass as part of my 2020-21 Offseason Plan because he limits hard contact as well as any pitcher in baseball. His stuff isn’t sexy, it’s a pretty standard mid-90s sinker/mid-80s slider combination, both with low spin, but Bass tunnels them very well and consistently misses the barrel. Would you have guessed this belongs to Anthony Bass?

That club option for next season is very appealing too seeing how half the bullpen will hit free agency after the season (Britton, Castro, Chapman, Green). If Bass comes in and pitches well, the Yankees can keep him at an affordable salary next year. And if he pitches poorly, the Yankees can decline the option and cut bait. Bass can definitely help a contender down the stretch.

(Marlins righty Dylan Floro could be another bullpen target as a sinker guy, but he’s had shoulder trouble and hasn’t looked right all season. His velocity is down, he’s not missing bats, he’s not limiting hard contact, etc. Something doesn’t seem right there.)

RHP Jason Foley, Tigers

2022 stats: 3.06 ERA (2.73 FIP), 14.9 K%, 5.4 BB%, 54.4 GB% in 35.1 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb from 2022-24, arb-eligible from 2025-27

The Tigers have several veteran relievers who are going to get attention at the deadline, namely righty Michael Fulmer and lefties Andrew Chafin and Gregory Soto. Fulmer is a rental and Chafin is signed through next year, and the Yankees have had interest in both the last few years. Maybe there’s a match now? Soto is a longer-term addition and would cost a pretty penny.

Foley is the more Yankees-esque target, for lack of a better term. The 26-year-old undrafted free agent hasn’t missed many bats yet in his big league career, but he has a heavy sinker that sits anywhere from 93-98 mph. He needs a secondary pitch and maybe the Yankees can teach him the sweeper? The sinker is a monster though. Foley rarely allows hard contact in the air.

I’m not sure Foley can be the high leverage reliever the Yankees need – Fulmer and Chafin (and Soto) are better equipped to do that – but there’s some ability here. He might be better as an offseason target you can work with in Spring Training. The sinker seems like something the Yankees would target, however. A sneaky good fit given their preferences.

RHP Mychal Givens, Cubs

2022 stats: 2.87 ERA (4.08 FIP), 28.7 K%, 11.3 BB%, 40.9 GB% in 37.2 IP
Contract status: $3.5M in 2022 and mutual buyout for 2023 ($1.5M buyout, salary unknown)

Now 32, Givens is roughly the same pitcher he was all those years with the Orioles, albeit with a tick or two less velocity. He still slings his sinker and slider from that low arm slot, and he still chews up righties. Lefties give him a hard time, but he’s not unplayable against them like, say, Adam Ottavino. Givens is what he is, and that’s ideally his team’s fourth or fifth best option.

Every trade deadline there seems to be one team that matches up with the Yankees’ needs well, and you can envision a massive 3-4 player trade to address multiple needs. Ian Happ (to replace Joey Gallo), Willson Contreras (to replace Kyle Higashioka), and Robertson and Givens for the bullpen? Sign me up. Alas, those big one-stop-shop trades basically never happen.

RHP Dinelson Lamet, Padres

2022 stats: 10.13 ERA (5.75 FIP), 25.5 K%, 16.4 BB%, 30.0 GB% in 10.2 IP
Contract status: $4.775M in 2022 and arb-eligible in 2023

Gallo for Lamet? One change of scenery/out of favor player for another? Two years ago the 30-year-old Lamet was San Diego’s ace. Now he’s a reliever who has spent most of the season in the minors, where he’s pitched well: 1.93 ERA (3.36 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 7.4% walks in 18.2 innings. The Padres have bullpen issues yet keep passing up Lamet. Hmmm.

But! But the Padres have had serious pitcher development issues in recent years, and perhaps all Lamet needs is an organization that knows what it’s doing. Get him and his mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider with pitching coach Matt Blake, and see what’s what. Even as Lamet has struggled the last two years, his slider whiff rate is around 50%. That’s elite.

The extra year of control is nice in theory, but Lamet is an up-and-down reliever going through arbitration with a starter’s resume, inflating his salaries. He’s a non-tender candidate. We know Padres GM AJ Preller loves Gallo. Lamet appears to be out of favor. A one-for-one trade would net the Yankees a lottery ticket arm and salary savings. Worth it?

LHP Jose Quijada, Angels

2022 stats: 2.12 ERA (2.19 FIP), 31.9 K%, 12.5 BB%, 35.9 GB% in 17 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2022 and 2023, arb-eligible from 2024-26

A stathead fave, Quijada boasts one of the game’s best fastballs even though it has average-ish velocity (94.4 mph) and spin (2,199 rpm). The combination of vertical break and approach angle are elite though, so Quijada’s fastball has carry at the top of the zone and hitters swing under it consistently. Here is the fastball whiff rate leaderboard (min. 200 four-seamers thrown):

1. Luis Castillo: 40.1%
2. Jose Quijada: 39.5%
3. Lance Lynn: 37.8%
4. Edwin Diaz: 36.8%
5. Devin Williams: 34.8%
   (MLB average: 21.6%)

Quijada is a lefty Chad Green, for all intents and purposes. He gets a ton of empty swings on his fastball and none of his secondary pitches stand out, though his changeup has looked good at times. Maybe the Yankees can teach Quijada the sweeper? That would be cool and it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve done it.

The Angels figure to keep Quijada because he’s good and cheap, but they’re in no position to close the door on any deal at this point, and maybe they just don’t know what they have in him? The fastball is really good. Sinkers and weak contact are great. At the end of the day, the ability to throw a fastball by hitters is the single best skill a pitcher can have, and Quijada has it.

RHP Lou Trivino, Athletics

2022 stats: 6.83 ERA (3.68 FIP), 29.0 K%, 9.7 BB%, 50.0 GB% in 29 IP
Contract status: $3M in 2022 and arb-eligible in 2024 and 2025

Everything must go in Oakland and the 30-year-old Trivino figures to be on the move soon. He’s been solid the last few years and the unsightly ERA this year hides real improvement. Trivino replaced his curveball with a sweeper in May and the pitch has a whiff rate north of 50%. He also lives in the 95-97 mph range with his sinker, which is positively Yankees-esque.

More than anything, Trivino is falling victim to awful luck on balls in play. He has a .470 BABIP overall and a .390 BABIP on ground balls, which is insane. The MLB average is a .235 BABIP on grounders and Trivino’s career rate is … .235. Take away Gold Glovers Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, play an outfielder at second base (Tony Kemp), and this is what happens.

Trivino throws five pitches at least 10% of the time each (sinker, four-seamer, slider, changeup, cutter) and that might be too much. Why is a short reliever futzing around with fourth and fifth pitches? Let’s not overthink this. Pare it down to something like 90% sinkers and sliders and let it eat for 15-20 pitches at a time. Trivino screams buy low target and the Yankees’ improved infield defense could do wonders for him.

(A’s lefty Sam Moll is an analytics darling given the movement on his fastball and slider. He’s gotten a lot of strikeouts (27.6%) and grounders (50.7%) in his first extended taste of the big leagues this year. There is some weirdness with his lack of extension, but some smart team like the Yankees or Dodgers or Rays is gonna trade for this guy eventually.)

* * *

There is a seemingly endless supply of potential bullpen trade targets. The Diamondbacks have three former Yankees to peddle (Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, All-Star Joe Mantiply) and Royals relievers Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow are oft-mentioned trade candidates. I think Robertson and either Bass or Trivino would be a good deadline outcome. Foley and Quijada are interesting too. There are plenty of bullpen arms available. The hard part is finding the right ones.

4. A possible Gallo DFA. Is there any chance the Yankees designate Joey Gallo for assignment Friday? Teams have seven days to trade, release, or waive a player once he’s been designated. The waiver process takes 48 hours though, so Friday is the earliest the Yankees could designate Gallo and still trade him before the deadline without exposing him to waivers.

Do I think it’ll happen? No. But it’s not completely crazy! Gallo is hitting .162/.286/.345 (84 wRC+) on the season and is in a 9-for-84 (.107) funk dating back to July 10th, so this is going on more than six weeks now. There’s just no way Gallo can be on the roster beyond the Aug. 2nd trade deadline. I can’t imagine the Yankees will get much more than salary relief, but he has to go.

Let’s consider the pros and cons of designating Gallo.

Pro: The Yankees remove Gallo from the roster and buy an extra roster spot for five days. They wouldn’t have his ultimate replacement yet (assuming that player isn’t added until the deadline), but they’d get five days to use his roster spot on a more productive player (Miguel Andujar? Oswaldo Cabrera? Estevan Florial?).

Con: Any trade leverage the Yankees have would disappear. They don’t have much to start with (Gallo has been terrible and everyone knows they need to dump him) but any trade leverage they do have would go away. The DFA essentially commits you to a salary dump and nothing more.

Pro: We would no longer have to watch Gallo. We wouldn’t even have to deal with the existential dread of possibly having to watch Gallo. He’d be gone. We’d be free. Free!

Con: If Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton crash into each other in the outfield and disintegrate on contact over the weekend, Gallo would no longer be available as a replacement. Once you go through with the DFA, he’s gone, and there’s no bringing him back. (Even if Gallo clears waivers, he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A and elect free agency, which I assume he would do.)

I suppose there’s also a “message” component to designating Gallo. It would be a message to fans that yeah, we screwed up, it’s a bad trade and we’re taking the necessary steps to right the wrong. It would also be a message to the clubhouse that we’re going to get you guys help. By all accounts Gallo is a popular teammate, but no one in the clubhouse is oblivious to what’s going on. They all know he’s struggling badly and on the way out.

I can’t find an example of a team designating an expected key contributor prior to the deadline, but the Giants did something similar at the end of the season a few years ago. Jeff Samardzija was in the final year of his contract, he started Game 58 of the 60-game pandemic season, then San Francisco designated him for assignment to buy an extra roster spot the last two games.

Cold-blooded? Yeah, but the Giants were fighting for a postseason spot and Samardzija wasn’t going to pitch again that season (or in the postseason because he was terrible), and they weren’t going to re-sign either. He still got paid after being designated because that’s how it works, but Samardzija was no longer of use to the Giants, so they cut him.

Gallo’s usefulness to the Yankees is very limited at this point. I think the only way they keep him is if they get slammed with injuries in a short period of time and desperately need outfielders. That’s unlikely and even that might not be enough to save Gallo. Other than that, what does he do? Play good defense? Florial and Tim Locastro can do that.

I don’t expect the Yankees to designate Gallo even though the timing with the deadline makes it work. You get an extra roster spot for a few days and can still trade him. It would be a desperate measure and the Yankees are not desperate, but Gallo has forced their hand. Those five extra days could matter, even against an ostensibly weak opponent like the Royals this weekend.

5. Prospect thoughts. OF Jasson Dominguez is officially a High-A player and he cranked an opposite field game-tying home run in the ninth inning of his first game with Hudson Valley over the weekend. Here’s the best available video. Dominguez is 5-for-12 (.417) with the homer, two steals, two walks, and two strikeouts through three games with the Renegades. Now a few thoughts on a few prospects.

The Serna cousins

The Sernas are taking over the farm system. Well, that’s an overstatement, but they are the new big thing. The Yankees signed cousins RHP Luis Serna and IF Jared Serna out of the Mexican League last May. No word on their bonuses, but they must’ve been relatively small because the Yankees spent most of their international bonus pool on IF Hans Montero and OF Fidel Montero (no relation).

Luis is a baby. He turned 18 just last week. Jared turned 20 in June. Here’s what the two have done in the rookie Florida Complex League this year:

• Luis: 0.42 ERA (2.31 FIP), 36.0 K%, 7.9 BB%, 46.7 GB% in 21.1 IP
• Jared: .354/.486/.625 (198 wRC+), 5 HR, 13/16 SB, 10.8 K%, 15.3 BB% in 111 PA

Jared moved across the street to Low-A Tampa last week and went 0-for-3 in his first game. In the FCL he had more walks (17) and extra-base hits (13) than strikeouts (12). He doesn’t swing and miss much and was described to me as a “loud sounds hitter,” so that’s neat. There’s not much info available about the kid otherwise. Jared’s a righty hitter who has played mostly third base in his career.

Luis is the better prospect of the two Sernas. He’s a skinny little guy (5-foot-11 and 144 lbs.) who sat in the mid-to-upper-80s when the Yankees signed him last year. Serna’s now in the low-90s with a great changeup. Josh Norris (subs. req’d) recently identified him as a player to watch for next year’s Futures Game. Here’s part of his write-up and here’s video:

Despite his stature, he already sits around 92 mph with his fastball and touches 94. His best offspeed pitch is a changeup that projects to be at least plus, and he throws both a slider and curveball. Serna pounds the zone with all four of his pitches, and scouts note that he shows extremely advanced pitchability.

The Monteros are hitting a combined .185/.333/.309 in the Dominican Summer League (they’ve both been bad, it’s not one dragging down the other) and Serna has quickly emerged as the best prospect from last year’s international class. Luis, that is. Jared’s a good prospect too but Luis is the real prize. So, these are the Serna cousins. They’re coming soon to a prospect list near you.

Sweeney’s hot streak

As you know by now, the theme in the farm system this season is starting slow, then getting scorching hot. Particularly the top prospects. Dominguez did it, SS Anthony Volpe did it, OF Everson Pereira did it, SS Oswald Peraza did it, so on and so forth. SS Trey Sweeney has done it too, though his season was disrupted by a hamstring injury.

Sweeney went 8-for-32 (.250) with two homers in seven games to begin the season, missed 11 days with the hamstring injury, then slumped badly to 12-for-79 (.152) with a 31.5% strikeout rate in his first 20 games back. Since then though, Sweeney owns a .288/.389/.509 (142 wRC+) line with nine doubles, seven homers, 13.1% walks, and 19.9% strikeouts in 42 games. That’s more like it for last year’s first round pick.

Despite that sluggish start, the reviews on Sweeney have been surprisingly positive, with a few folks (not with the Yankees) telling me he’s impressed with his baseball smarts and the way he handled adversity and made adjustments (mostly with swing decisions) during that early funk. If Volpe gets bumped up to Triple-A Scranton, I could see Sweeney taking his place with Double-A Somerset. I don’t think a full season in High-A would be the worst thing in the world though.

(It’s trade season and there was a bit of a stir Sunday when Sweeney and Dominguez were both pulled from Hudson Valley’s game. Sweeney was a triple away from the cycle too. The score was lopsided though, and it was disgustingly hot and humid in Wilmington all weekend. Seems like a pretty standard “get the top prospects off their feet” thing. If it were a trade situation, we probably would’ve known by now. And I promise teams don’t care even a tiny little bit about a player having a chance at a cycle when making developmental decisions. The player may care, but the organization doesn’t.)

Sikkema getting better and better

It might be time to get LHP T.J. Sikkema to Double-A. The lefty missed 2020 (pandemic), 2021 (lat), and the start of 2022 (elbow), but he’s been healthy since early May and just keeps getting better. His last three games with High-A Hudson Valley have been dominant:

• July 3rd: 4.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K on 67 pitches
• July 10th: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K on 64 pitches
• July 16th: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 10 K in 71 pitches

Sikkema turned 24 on Monday and he’s pitched to a 2.48 ERA (3.05 FIP) with 38.0% strikeouts and 6.3% walks in 36.1 innings this year. His fastball has sat anywhere from 90-96 mph, which is where it was before all this lost time. The Yankees helped him add sweep to his slider (surprise surprise) and he’s bringing the funk with multiple arm angles (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

The Yankees have to strike a balance with Sikkema. He missed a lot of time and has had a few arm injuries, so they don’t want to push him too hard. This is also his Rule 5 Draft year, and I'm sure they’d like to see him in Double-A before committing a 40-man roster spot to him this offseason. It’s a balance, not a problem. The Yankees can promote Sikkema without overworking him, etc.

Promotion or no promotion, Sikkema is healthy and taking a regular turn for the first time in close to three years, and he didn’t lose anything during the layoff. He had to be taken off the fast track but it looks like a speed bump more than something that permanently derailed his career. The 40-man decision after the season will be an interesting one. For now, Sikkema has gotten his career back on track and is climbing the prospect rankings.

Miscellany

C Josh Breaux is 14-for-33 (.424) with three homers in nine games since being promoted to Triple-A Scranton two weeks ago. Keep pumping up that trade value, Josh! … Kaleb Cowart, who is somehow still in the organization is back on the field. The former Angels infielder and first round pick is now a reliever, and his line is pretty good: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K. He’s currently with Double-A Somerset after not playing at all in 2020 or 2021. Cowart is only 30. Maybe this conversion will go somewhere. A thing to watch the rest of the season … We’re still a few weeks away from the Arizona Fall League rosters being announced and I’ll do a full AzFL preview some point before then. Right now, I just want to say C Austin Wells and RHP Yoendrys Gomez stand out as candidates to head to the desert given all the time they missed with injuries this year. Sikkema too. He might be a “let’s get as long a look at him as possible before deciding whether to put him on the 40-man” situation. The AzFL is often a “make up lost at-bats/innings” league and Wells and Gomez (and Sikkema) missed time, making them natural candidates.

6. No international draft agreement. As noted in the intro, MLB and the MLBPA failed to reach an agreement on an international draft prior to Monday’s self-imposed deadline. Alden Gonzalez says MLB’s final proposal included $191M for 600 players (i.e. 20-round draft). The MLBPA was seeking $260M. The two sides also disagreed about bonus slots and things like that.

Here is a snippet of the union’s statement:

Our Draft proposals – unprecedented in MLBPA history – sought to establish minimum guarantees in player signings, roster spots, infrastructure investments, playing opportunities, scouting opportunities, as well as enforcement measures to combat corruption. We also made proposals to compensate international signees more fairly and in line with other amateurs, and to ensure that all prospects have access to an educational and player development safety net.

At their core, each of our proposals was focused on protecting against the scenario that all Players fear the most – the erosion of our game on the world stage, with international players becoming the latest victim in baseball’s prioritization of efficiency over fundamental fairness. The League’s responses fell well short of anything Players could consider a fair deal.

Evan Drellich says MLB’s final proposal was so unacceptable to the union that the MLBPA didn’t even hold a formal vote. MLBPA leadership and the 30 team representatives reviewed it and considered it a no-go, so they never voted. No international draft and the qualifying offer system as we know it remains in place for at least another five years.

MLB has pushed for an international draft for years (decades, really) because it is another way to cut costs, but an international draft for no qualifying offer is not a fair trade, right? The qualifying offer only impacts what, a dozen players a year? And those dozen or so players have all already made decent money by virtue of sticking around long enough to get to free agency and being good enough to get a qualifying offer.

An international draft, meanwhile, would change the talent acquisition process for approximately 40% of the player pool, and it would be a permanent change. Once MLB gets an international draft, there’s no going back. Getting rid of draft pick compensation is a worthy fight for the MLBPA because teams use it to cheap out in free agency, but trading an international draft to help a handful of players each offseason isn’t worth it.

As for the Yankees, the lack of an international draft means a few things. First and foremost, the trade market can begin to move, because now teams know draft pick compensation is still a thing. The Royals know they can get a draft pick for Andrew Benintendi after the season. If you want him at the deadline, you have to offer up something at least as valuable as that compensation pick.

This doesn’t just affect rentals either. It also matters with guys like Luis Castillo. Trade for Castillo at the deadline this year and you know you’ll get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere as a free agent next offseason. That absolutely factors into the trade calculus. Bottom line, teams had to know what was up with the qualifying offer before moving forward with trades. Now they know.

Second, the qualifying offer is something that could come into play with Jameson Taillon this offseason. Aaron Judge is obviously getting one. Taillon could get one too and I see the qualifying offer as the best way to keep him. It’s a one-year commitment (albeit at a high salary) rather than a multi-year commitment to a guy with a scary injury history. We’re still a few months away from having to think about this seriously, but yeah, qualifying offers matter to the Yankees. This year and in the future.

And third, no international draft is good news for the Yankees, who will still have access to the top international talent each year. They don’t always sign the best international prospects, but they have always been able to make a run at them, and that is still the case. Even with a randomized draft order, the Yankees would have been completely cut off from the top prospects most years.

So, no international draft for another five years, until the next round of Collective Bargaining Agreement talks. It’s a good thing for the Yankees overall, mostly because it allows them to pursue the best international players each year, and also because it figures to get the trade market moving. Things have been weirdly quiet the last few weeks.

(Reminder: The Yankees are favored to sign Cuban outfielder Brandon Mayea when the 2023 international signing period opens in a few months. He is the consensus top prospect in the class. It’s not a lock Mayea signs with the Yankees, other teams are making a run at him, but the Yankees are considered the front runner.)

7. Rapid fire thoughts. I don’t have much to contribute to the Juan Soto trade rumor mill right now. Jack Curry says the Yankees reached out to express interest and I’ve heard secondhand the Nationals insist on dumping Patrick Corbin’s contract in any Soto trade. It’s relatively early in the process and Washington has a big opening ask. I get the Corbin thing too. It will be difficult to get fair value in a Soto trade in terms of talent, so the Nationals are trying to extract value in other ways. The financial commitment is staggering though:

• 2022: Soto (~$5.6M) and Corbin (~$7.6M) remaining
• 2023: Soto ($26M estimated thru arb) and Corbin ($24M)
• 2024: Soto ($35M estimated thru arb) and Corbin ($35M)
• 2025: Soto hits free agency and Corbin’s contract expires

That’s an estimated $133.2M in salary obligation through 2024. I have no idea how the Nationals could expect to dump that and get a big top prospect package in return. The Yankees absorbed $265M in the Giancarlo Stanton trade but that was spread across 10 years, and they gave up basically nothing to get him. Soto and Corbin is half the money in one-fourth the years. Washington is either going to have to take money back (Josh Donaldson? Aaron Hicks?) or eat a chunk of Corbin’s deal. Point is, you either have to trade your very best prospects or spend money to get a guy like Soto. There is no third option … Over the weekend Mark Feinsand reported the Yankees are “serious contenders” for Andrew Benintendi. Either they don’t care he won’t be able to play in Toronto or trust he will be able to play in Toronto when the time comes. Or it’s just due diligence or a smokescreen. We’ll find out soon enough. I don’t love Benintendi as a trade target because what he’s doing right now (.317/.387/.398 and 126 wRC+) is about as good as it gets with him, so there’s more downside than upside. That said, he’s an upgrade over Joey Gallo, and a significant once. The trade deadline is a week away … I’ll do a full draft signing update after the signing deadline next week, but first rounder Spencer Jones has signed. Jim Callis says he received a straight slot $2,880,800 signing bonus. Jones posted a goodbye message to Vanderbilt over the weekend, which kinda gave away he was signing, not that there was ever any doubt. Baseball America has the latest signing info and here’s my draft recap. I’ll do a complete draft signing review next week sometime … And finally, Old Timers’ Day will return this year. The last two were canceled because of the pandemic. Old Timers’ Day is scheduled for this coming Saturday, July 30th, and I gotta say, the roster is grim. A lot of Old Timers’ Day staples won’t be there (Reggie Jackson, Andy Pettitte, Paul O’Neill, etc.) and I assume it’s because of the pandemic. Either people don’t want to travel or New York’s private sector vaccine mandate prevents them from attending. I have no idea how the mandate applies to Old Timers’ Day. Aren’t they guests, not workers? Anyway, Old Timers’ Day will be a skeleton crew this year, so much so that they’re not even going to play the Old Timers’ Game. Just introductions and video tributes. Hopefully we get a normal and full Old Timers’ Day next year.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)