July 1st, 2022: Rotation, Sears, Banuelos, Catchers, Gallo, Mailbag

The Yankees played five games against the Astros in the last week and did not take a single at-bat while holding a lead. They’re gonna need some other team to beat Houston in the ALDS, because not they’re beating them in the ALCS. Kidding! Or am I? Anyway, there’s a lot of black holes in the lineup right now and I’m confident in only a few snapping out of it. Seems like a bit of a problem. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Hands down, my favorite stat of the season is the Yankees are 24-21 in games they’ve trailed at any point. Every other team is at least 10 games under .500 in games they’ve trailed. That stat comes via the great Katie Sharp and it is truly incredible. The Yankees are playing at an 86-win pace in games they were at one point losing. Only 13 other teams are playing at an 86-win pace period. Just bonkers stuff. I don’t have much to say about the Athletics series (or the one game against the Astros) other than the games were annoyingly close, but that’s how it goes against bad teams sometimes. Here are a few bigger picture thoughts on the last few days.

Rotation hits a lull

It was bound to happen at some point, and the starting rotation has hit a bit of a lull the last two weeks. The starting pitchers have allowed at least four runs five times in the last 12 games after doing it only eight times in the first 65 games. Some quick rotation numbers:

• First 65 games: 2.71 ERA (3.20 FIP) and 20.2 K-BB%
• Last 12 games: 4.81 ERA (4.33 FIP) and 16.3 K-BB%

Jordan Montgomery’s last two starts are his worst two starts of the season. Jameson Taillon allowed nine runs in his last two starts after allowing nine runs in his previous six starts. The home run regression monster has come for Nestor Cortes (six homers in his last four starts after four in his first 10 starts). Gerrit Cole has been great and everyone else has had to grind, which was kinda the expectation coming into the season?

“This is a good team. You talk about doing it a lot of different ways. For a long stretch there, it was just starters going six, seven, eight innings, and really dominating that way,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after finishing the sweep of the A’s. “We’ve had to lean on our offense at different times. We’ve been bullpen-dependent in different sections of the season. You’ve got to be able to do that if you want to be a complete team.”

All five starters being locked in and dominating right through October isn’t a thing that happens in baseball. There are ups and downs (and then more ups and more downs) during the 162-game season, and the rotation is in a down stretch right now. It’s a lull and it won’t last forever, and hey, the Yankees keep winning anyway. They’re 7-5 in those last 12 games (which seems bad relative to the rest of the season).

I do think it’s notable the Yankees are talking more about finding extra rest for their starters. They used JP Sears as a spot starter to give everyone an extra day earlier this week, and they twice used off-days earlier this month to rearrange the rotation specifically to give Cortes extra rest. If they’re mentioning pitcher workloads to us, they’re talking about them a lot more internally.

“Eye test stuff, listening to them, and then the things you’re able to measure,” Boone told Gary Phillips about monitoring pitchers. “Kind of a little bit of everything. Being a little proactive, but also very much listening to where they’re at physically by measurables and by listening to them too … Just be smart about it. It will kind of declare itself as we move.”

The Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas trade rumors are already surfacing, and while they are the kinda pitchers who would help any team, you can connect the dots and see the Yankees are at least kicking the tires on high-end starters in case a member(s) of their current rotation hits a wall. I could see adding a starter and using a 5.5-man rotation where Nestor is a swingman who makes longer relief appearances between starts (the Padres are using Nick Martinez that way).

(It also helps that the Yankees have such a huge lead in the AL East. They could do something like script out a game where, say, Taillon goes the first five innings and Cortes goes the final four innings no matter the score, just to keep Nestor stretched out so he can make spot starts and give everyone an extra day. The Yankees couldn’t do that in a close race.)

We’ll see where things go the next few weeks. For now, the rotation has definitely hit a lull the last few weeks. It (probably) won’t last forever, but all the talk about workloads and extra rest (plus the Castillo and Montas rumors) tell us the Yankees do have big picture concerns. Maybe concerns isn’t the right word. They just have some things to monitor to keep this unit performing at its best, and want to be preparing should action be required.

“I keep going back to Jamo last year,” Boone told Phillips. “He was a guy that we were aware of, paying attention to, and he did great and responded and probably went further than we would have expected. So I don’t want to put any limitation on that, but also being very aware and watching.”

Sears’ spot start

For only the fourth time this season, the Yankees used a starting pitcher other than the regular five members of the rotation this week. Sears got a spot start Tuesday to give everyone extra rest. The Yankees were 15 days into a 20 games in 20 days stretch, and if you’re going to insert a spot starter, doing it against the very bad Athletics is the perfect time to do it.

“Just a huge step-up outing by him,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Sears, who has thrown 12.2 scoreless innings as a big leaguer, after the game. “He’s having a great season all-around and he’s done it every opportunity he’s gotten up here. Great job by JP.”

The Yankees were the last team in baseball to have a sixth pitcher make multiple starts (22 teams have had seven pitchers make multiple starts). None of the four spot starts were needed because of a baseball injury either. To recap:

• May 12th vs. White Sox: Luis Gil (needed because of a doubleheader)
• May 25th vs. Orioles: JP Sears (needed because of a doubleheader)
• June 16th vs. Rays: Clarke Schmidt (needed because Luis Severino got sick)
• June 28th vs. Athletics: JP Sears (Yankees wanted to give everyone an extra day)

I guess Severino getting sick and going on the COVID list for a few hours counts as an injury, but I mean a baseball injury. An achy elbow or a sore hamstring, something like that. An injury suffered during the course of playing baseball. Either way, only four spot starts nearly halfway through the season, and only one being remotely injury-related, is remarkable.

Also remarkable: the quality of the arms making these spot starts. Gil, Schmidt, and Sears are all legitimate prospects with a big league future (I see Schmidt and Sears as MLB pitchers who are stuck in Triple-A because of the team’s depth). The 2009 Yankees had to give starts to guys like Sergio Mitre and random Yankee Chad Gaudin. Remember Sidney Ponson? Chris Capuano? Random Yankee Dustin Moseley? The 2022 Yankees don’t do journeymen.

To be fair, the Yankees could have given Schmidt’s spot start to journeyman Ryan Weber, which would have screwed up my narrative, but they didn’t because they have Schmidt. The Yankees of the past didn’t have guys like Schmidt lying around, nevermind a Schmidt and a Sears and a Gil. Player development has improved the quality of their pitching depth so much. The Yankees have such a high internal replacement level on the mound. It’s staggering. It’s awesome.

“I think the thing we really pride ourselves on is making this a seamless transition between the Major Leagues and minor leagues,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Randy Miller earlier this week. “It’s not always easy to do that, but I think (our veterans) do a good job of accepting guys when they come up here and it allows them to go out there and be aggressive in the zone and trust their stuff. Every guy that comes up here is ready to perform and they understand what the expectations are.”

Banuelos to Sears to Weber to Chapman

Manny Banuelos, one of the feel-good stories of the season, was designated for assignment the other day to clear a roster spot for Sears. Weber then replaced Sears on the roster for a few days, and Aroldis Chapman will be activated Friday, replacing Weber. So the roster spot went Banuelos to Sears to Weber to Chapman in the span of four days.

“Difficult,” Boone told Joyce about the decision to drop Banuelos from the roster. “Obviously a numbers game, a crunch. One of the things that made it difficult, on top of who the person is and the story and how much it’s been a joy to be around him every day, is we really think he can pitch. Certainly hope the best for Manny and selfishly I hope he remains with us, but I certainly understand the situation and the process too.”

Banuelos spent 34 days on the active roster and pitched only four times (8.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 8 K), including zero times in his final nine days with the team. He was the epitome of the last guy in the bullpen, the long man who only pitched in blowouts. It’s the role I don’t want Sears or Schmidt or another prospect filling precisely because of that lack of work.

Dumping Banuelos, who is out of options and couldn’t be sent to Triple-A, is a nice little vote of confidence for Albert Abreu and Ron Marinaccio. The easiest move would have been sending Marinaccio down. That would have allowed the Yankees to keep everyone. Marinaccio has been quite good since being called back up last month though (14.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 8 BB, 16 K). The Yankees want to keep him around and continue to let him grow into a role.

Abreu had that eight up, seven down outing Monday night (plus another 1-2-3 inning Thursday) and, given his travels this season, I thought he was going to get an “atta boy” and a pink slip after the game. Like Banuelos and unlike Marinaccio, Abreu is out of options and can’t be sent to Triple-A. The Yankees see something in Abreu though and want to try to unlock it. Blake spoke about simplifying things. Just throw as hard as you can and take your chances, basically.

“Simplicity is king for him. Just like, streamline your approach through home plate. Cut down the amount of things you’re trying to do in your delivery, with the hesitations, the shimmies. Just be simple and attack home plate,” Blake told Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d). “... We felt he was taking strides over the last year or so to keep his mindset tight and make focused, clear attacks toward home plate. So it wasn’t a complicated message and it wasn’t new to him. It was revisiting the good stuff that we’ve seen previously.”

“It felt like I was getting hope again,” Abreu told Jared Greenspan about rejoining the Yankees. “I had lost my confidence. And just walking into that stadium, I felt a rush of positive energy and it just let me know that this is where I belong. I felt like a different person.”

So Abreu and Marinaccio remain while Banuelos, the 26th man on the 26-man roster and a guy with no long-term future in pinstripes, got the boot. Banuelos is likely on waivers right now, and if he clears (he probably will, though you never know with lefties with good fastballs), he’ll elect free agency and look for the best opportunity. And it could lead him back to the Yankees, like it did Weber earlier this year. He elected free agency and returned on a new minor league deal* a few weeks back.

* The Yankees pay good Triple-A salaries for what we’ll call “priority” minor league free agents, like Rob Brantly the last few years (like Weber, Brantly elected free agency, then returned to the Yankees on a new minor league earlier this season). If you’re going to be a Quad-A depth player stuck in Triple-A, you want to be stuck in Triple-A with the Yankees. They pay well.

Getting Abreu and Marinaccio regular work won’t be easy only because it’s hard to find everyone regular work with an eight-man bullpen (there always seems to be that one guy who goes 7-10 days between appearances), but the Yankees want them around, and were willing to potentially lose a viable depth arm in Banuelos. He could return and I hope he does, but the Yankees know he might not. And if not, those 8.1 innings were fun for us old prospect hounds. Now it’s Abreu’s and Marinaccio’s time to justify the team’s faith in them.

Catcher workload

Ignoring Kyle Higashioka’s three-day stint on the COVID list, the Yankees did not have a catcher start consecutive days from May 15th and 16th through June 22nd and 23rd. So basically a full calendar month of Higashioka and Jose Trevino alternating days. The 50/50 workload split was unusual and seemingly arbitrary. Players alternating days at a position? Who does that?

That 50/50 split is over. Trevino has started seven of the last nine games, including four in a row at one point, and Higashioka’s two starts were both a day game after a night game. Trevino is now carrying a starter’s workload, and it’s deserved. He’s hitting .263/.313/.399 (123 wRC+), and if you trust defensive stats, he leads all catchers with +13 DRS and a 53.5% called strike rate.

“I feel like it’s been inside of me,” Trevino told Ethan Sears earlier this week. “I feel like I’ve shown this before, I’m just glad it’s showing up right now.”

I do find it a bit amusing the Yankees made Trevino the starter right as Higashioka finally showed signs of life at the plate (four home runs in a four-start span two weeks ago, though one came off a position player). I assumed Higgy’s dingers meant the 50/50 split would continue for at least another few weeks. Instead, Trevino became the starter. Go figure.

I suppose the Yankees could be giving Trevino run as the No. 1 catcher now to see whether he can handle the workload, and if not, they’ll make a trade at the deadline to give him a better 50/50 partner than Higashioka (Willson Contreras?). Possible, but I don’t buy it. I don’t get the sense the Yankees want to change their catching mix in-season. I think Trevino’s starting because he’s earned it with his play the last few weeks. That’s all.

I also don’t think this playing time battle is over. If Trevino begins to slow down and/or Higashioka really heats up and forces his way into the lineup, then Higashioka will get more starts. In their own little way, the Yankees will ride the hot hand (it took Trevino half a season to wrestle the job away from Higashioka, so yeah). For now, Trevino is the starter. The playing time doesn’t lie.

Gallo’s slump

Good gravy, Joey Gallo. Thursday night’s 0-2 with a walk dropped him to 0-for-26 with 14 strikeouts since June 17th. He had a little hot streak early last month (8-for-29 with four homers in a nine-game span) but it didn’t last, like every other Gallo hot streak. Whenever he strings a few productive games together, it is a happy coincidence and never something he builds on.

“I think the team winning definitely helps big time, but you also have a personal expectation and pride and desire to succeed and be a part of this thing, which he very much is,” Boone told Joyce earlier this week. “It’s a heavy burden, especially when you’ve had success in this league and you’ve been an All-Star in this league and you’re not getting the results, especially when you pour everything into it, which Joey does. It’s frustrating and I know it’s difficult. I know it certainly weighs on him and wears on him.”

Last season Gallo tied for the MLB lead with seven bunt hits, all against the shift. His 13 bunt hits from 2019-21 were the seventh most in baseball. Do you know how many times Gallo has tried to bunt against this shift this season? Once, on May 26th (he got a tough pitch and fouled it off). One bunt attempt three months into the season when you’re hitting .165/.276/.330 (78 wRC+)? Just one?

When you’re struggling as much and for as long as Gallo has, don’t you have to lay down a bunt at some point? I know he’s a home run hitter and you want him aiming for the seats, but aiming for the seats ain’t working. I’m not asking a locked-in hitter to bunt against the shift, and I’m not asking Gallo to do something he’s never done. Bunts are in his arsenal. Bunting against the shift feels like a thing that should happen just so Gallo can contribute something.

Gallo seems like a nice enough guy and this is nothing personal, but he can’t be a Yankee after the trade deadline. The deadline is a month away and, realistically, there’s nothing Gallo can do in that month to make me believe in him as a solution the rest of the season and into October. It’s too bad it didn’t work out and it’s too bad the Yankees now have to trade more prospects to address the outfield again, but that’s life. At least Gallo hasn’t cost them in the standings.

Miscellany

I saw a few people complaining about it on media sociale, but I had no problem with Kyle Tucker trying to steal home while Severino was fidgeting with his PitchCom receiver. Time was not called and Tucker’s job is to win games for the Astros, not be courteous to the Yankees. Boone sounded pretty chapped after the game (video), but I’m not sure if he was chapped at Tucker for trying to steal home or Severino for not calling time. Severino threw Tucker out, so no harm, no foul. Good learning experience. Call time before fixing your PitchCom receiver, fellas … Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are both still slumping a bit, but their slumps are not normal player slumps. Since the start of the Rays series in Tampa they are a combined 12-for-70 (.171) with seven home runs. The few hits they are getting are putting runs on the board. Going back further, Stanton is 7-for-48 (.146) with five homers in his last 14 games. Those two singles Thursday were his first non-homer hits since that 18-4 blowout win over the Cubs. Judge and Stanton will get going soon (Giancarlo in particular feels like he’s on the verge of really breaking out), but the Yankees have been able to win games while they’ve slumped, something they didn’t do often last year … Stanton made his first start of the season in left field Thursday night. I wouldn’t expect it to become a regular thing. The Yankees definitely put Stanton in left because it’s the small field at Minute Maid Park, much like right field in Yankee Stadium. They were just giving him less ground to cover. I suppose this could become a thing again if the Yankees and Astros meet in the postseason, but we can worry about that in a few months if it happens … And finally, we had our first real “what in the world was that send?” moment of the season with third base coach Luis Rojas earlier this week. He waved Josh Donaldson home on Trevino’s single and the cannon-armed Ramon Laureano threw him out with ease (video). Frankie Montas is tough and you sometimes have to push the envelope against tough pitchers, sure, but I think we all knew it was a bad send while watching it happen in real time. The best way to beat Montas is to get him out of the game and get into that very bad bullpen, and Rojas gave the A’s an easy out and saved Montas a few pitches. Well, whatever. We’re just about halfway through the season and that was the first truly egregious send by Rojas. It’s a good thing when the third base coach isn’t noticeable, and Rojas hasn’t been.

2. 2022 draft prospect: Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

No player in the draft class has improved his stock more than Horton over the last month or so. Take a look at his updated ranking at Baseball America (subs. req’d):

Going from No. 317 to No. 32 is a nice little climb, eh? Horton was a candidate to go in the second or third round out of high school in 2020, but he was a top quarterback recruit and committed to play both sports at Oklahoma. The two-sport leverage squeezed Horton out of the five-round draft, then he missed the entire 2021 season with Tommy John surgery.

Horton returned to the mound in late March (he hit .235/.323/.324 with a homer in 54 games as a third baseman in the interim) and showed rust initially, then he had a monster postseason to help Oklahoma reach the College World Series Finals. The 4.86 ERA in 53.2 innings doesn’t do justice to how good he looked. Here are Horton’s current draft rankings, half of which are outdated:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 32
• FanGraphs: No. 51
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): Not ranked
• MLB.com: No. 24

Horton allowed two runs in 7.2 innings against Ole Miss last weekend and set a new College World Series Finals record with 13 strikeouts. Alas, the bullpen blew it (on two run-scoring wild pitches!) and the Rebels swept the best-of-three series to win the National Championship. Here’s video and here is part of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

In June, he pitched with a 94-95 mph fastball that got up to 98 with high spin and impressive carry up in the zone. All of his pitches feature a high-spin profile, and he’s shown impressive feel to spin the baseball dating back to his prep days. He showed a harder slider in the mid 80s that got up to 90 mph late in the season, a pitch that earned double-plus grades and was used more frequently than his fastball. Horton will also throw a slower curveball around 80 mph, and that could be an above-average offering as well. He didn’t use a changeup much this spring, but he has a firm one in the upper 80s that flashes some downward movement and could be a real fourth pitch.

In a draft class short on healthy college pitchers, Horton has been mentioned as a possible first round pick the last few weeks. Baseball executives are human, they get excited about the shiny new toy like everyone else, though Horton does check a lot of boxes with a mid-90s fastball, a wipeout slider, the potential for two other pitches, and premium athleticism (based on his football exploits). The love is not undeserved.

Horton sounds exactly like the kinda pitcher the Yankees would go for in the first round, if they go for a pitcher in the first round. Their M.O. is polished bats with hard-hit ability early in the draft, and arms in the later rounds. To break the trend, it would have to be someone like Horton, who has premium power stuff. Either way, this kid was barely on the draft radar two months ago. Now he’s a candidate to go in the first round.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Jonathan Mayo says there’s been recent buzz about the Yankees and Kumar Rocker. Here’s my draft profile. Rocker has been dominant with his independent league team (15 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 25 K) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) recently reported several teams are looking at Rocker with an eye on putting him in their bullpen in the second half. I don’t think the Yankees would do that, but there’s a draft rumor. The Yankees are apparently in on Rocker … Phase 1 of the All-Star Game voting is complete and Aaron Judge led all players with 3,762,498 votes. As the leading vote-getter in his league, Judge gets to skip Phase 2 and is an automatic starter. It’ll be his fourth All-Star Game starting assignment (also 2017, 2018, and 2021). Jose Trevino is up against Alejandro Kirk at catcher and Giancarlo Stanton is up against Mike Trout, George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for one of the other two outfield spots alongside Judge. No other Yankees are finalists (Anthony Rizzo was fewer than 80,000 votes behind Ty France for a first base spot). I hope Trevino makes it. Would be cool and it’s impossible not to root for the guy. Stanton is a four-time All-Star and I am 100% certain he would rather skip the All-Star Game and go on a little midseason vacation. Anyway, here are all the finalists. Phase 2 of the voting begins Tuesday … And finally, Brett Gardner’s agent told Gene Sapakoff there’s no indication Gardner will play this season. Not exactly a surprise, but now his agent is saying it. “There’s really no indication Gardy intends to play anywhere, and I would be surprised if he does. It’s getting pretty late for anything to happen, especially since he hasn’t played since last October,” Gardner’s agent said. Brett would need what, 3-4 weeks to get ready at minimum? There’s no reason to think the Yankees will bring Gardner back even with Joey Gallo being so bad, but the reality is beginning to set in.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

El asks: 1) I believe the Yanks are 24-1 when Judge and Stanton both homer, what was the one loss? 2) My Mets friend doesn't believe me that Judge really hit 53 homers his rookie year but that one was not counted as a homer. I think it was called a double and the Yanks didn't challenge or were out of challenges. I'm not crazy, right?

Let’s take the two questions one at a time:

1) The Yankees are 25-1 when Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton homer in the same game (the question was sent in before they both went deep Wednesday), including 9-0 this year. The one loss was memorable: it was the Field of Dreams Game last year. Judge and Stanton both hit two-run home runs off Liam Hendriks to turn a 7-4 deficit into an 8-7 lead in the top of the ninth inning (video). Then Tim Anderson hit his walk-off homer in the bottom half. Womp womp.

I’m not sure whether I’m surprised Judge and Stanton have gone deep that many times in the same game or that few times in the same game. I think the former? Stanton has 99 homers as a Yankee and Judge has 187, so roughly a quarter of Stanton’s homers in pinstripes have come in games Judge has also homered. Yeah, that seems like a lot.

2) You remember correctly. On April 17th, 2017, Judge hit an Adam Wainwright curveball over the right-center field wall. A fan reached over and tried to catch it, and the umpires ruled it fan interference. Here’s the video and here’s a screen grab:

The umpires on the field are far away from the play and made an incorrect call. It’s a difficult job and I don’t blame them. But the play was reviewed, and the replay crew in New York said there wasn’t enough evidence to overturn the call. What? Judge hustled to third on the play rather than go into his home run trot, so he was awarded a triple instead of a double.

“I didn’t get an explanation. I still think it’s a home run,” Joe Girardi told Dan Martin after the game. “The umpire saw the fan interfere with the ball, but I’m not so sure he exactly saw where (right fielder Stephen Piscotty) was … Clearly, I don’t think he’s gonna catch it.”

Greg Bird took Wainwright deep on the very next pitch, so Judge scored anyway, but that should’ve been a home run! Judge has 187 career homers and should have 188. When he retires with 799, we’ll know who to blame. “They made the decision and you’ve just got to stick with it. I think that was my first career triple too (it was), so I don’t mind it,” Judge told Martin.

(Judge also had home runs robbed by Jackie Bradley Jr. (video) and Melky Cabrera (video) in 2017. He hit 52 homers, had two others robbed, and had another incorrectly ruled a triple. Judge hit 55 balls over the fence that year. It would have been the fourth highest single-season home run total in Yankees history and the 20th highest in MLB history.)

Paul asks: The Yankees' pitching staff seems like a collective of wizards, seemingly able to strand the few runners they allow. Is it an illusion? Where do they rank in terms of % of runners allowed that score (is that a thing? We track everything, that must be a thing.). Are they as good at this as it feels like they are? Historically good, even?

Yankees pitchers have a 79.2% strand rate this season and that’s the highest in baseball (the Dodgers are second at 77.1%). It would be the third highest in a full season, behind the 1968 Tigers (79.5%) and 2015 Cardinals (79.4%). The league average strand rate is 72.0% this year and it’s held steady in the 70% to 73% range in the DH era (since 1973).

Strand rate splits data goes back to 1972 and during that time only two teams had a first half strand rate north of 79%. The Yankees are on pace to be the third, though obviously there’s still a few weeks to go before the All-Star break. The other two:

1. 2015 Cardinals: 80.5% (finished at 79.4%)
2. 1989 Angels: 79.2% (finished at 75.6%)

The Yankees are so good at stranding runners because they don’t allow many runners in the first place. They lead baseball in WHIP (1.07) and opponent’s OBP (.277), and have the second best home run rate (0.87 HR/9) and second best strikeout rate (25.1%). Few baserunners, few home runs allowed, and lots of strikeouts equals a nearly unprecedented strand rate.

Also, Yankees pitchers have been so very good with men on base. A few times I’ve mentioned the staff collectively executes as a high level, and that execution leads to results like this when there are ducks on the pond:

• Opp. AVG: .209 (1st in MLB, Dodgers are second at .210)
• Opp. OBP: .282 (2nd in MLB behind Dodgers at .276)
• Opp. SLG: .337 (2nd in MLB behind Dodgers at .331)
• Opp. wOBA: .275 (2nd in MLB behind Dodgers at .267)
• K%: 24.8% (1st in MLB, Mets are second at 24.2%)

The pitching staff has been very good overall and it levels up when there are men on base. Every once in a while the dam breaks and Elvis Andrus hits a bases-clearing double (come on, Monty), but that will happen during the long season. By and large, the pitching staff has been excellent at stranding runners, and also at preventing runners from reaching base in the first place.

Daniel asks: Is it me or has IKF not really been that great in the field?

He hasn’t based on the numbers and my eye test (he of course made one of the best plays of the season Thursday night). Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s track record as an elite defender boils down to winning a Gold Glove at third base in a 60-game season. He doesn’t play third base anymore and the numbers are split on his work at shortstop:

• DRS: +2 in 2022 and +12 from 2021-22
• OAA: -5 in 2022 and -12 from 2021-22
• UZR: +4.7 in 2022 and +5.8 from 2021-22

One says he’s at +12 runs the last two years and another says he’s -12 outs the last two years. Gotta love defensive stats. The truth is in the middle somewhere and the middle is an average defender, more or less. Kiner-Falefa was billed as an impact defender but he is not that.

Kiner-Falefa doesn’t look all that natural or fluid at short. He stabs at the ball and slings his throws from down low. It mostly works for him, but Kiner-Falefa has been prone to poorly-timed mistakes (doesn’t it seem like every error comes in a big spot?) and the highlight plays are infrequent. His defense is fine, and when a guy's hitting .260/.312/.307 (79 wRC+), I want more than fine.

The Yankees are winning and winning a lot, so I guess we shouldn’t complain about the trade. For all we know Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson are spurring this on with clubhouse super powers. On the field, these two are definitely tagging along for the ride. They aren’t driving the bus. They’re not even navigating from the back seat. Kiner-Falefa’s defense has been less than advertised. I think that’s fair to say.

Steve asks: When the Yankees feel Volpe is ready to move up to AAA, what happens to Peraza? Assuming he isn’t traded away this summer, does he switch positions?

Oswald Peraza would begin moving around the infield. Anthony Volpe too. It’s standard practice to expose prospects to multiple positions to prepare them for whatever comes their way. The Red Sox did not do this with Jeter Downs. He had a brief MLB stint last month and made his big league debut at third base, a position he’d never played in pro ball. Boston had to give Downs a crash course at third because they didn’t prepare him to play the position in the minors.

Estevan Florial is a gifted center fielder who has spent time in left and right fields. Peraza has played four games at second base this year, and Volpe played two games at second and three games at third last year. If and when Volpe gets promoted, he and Peraza will move between positions. It won’t mean the Yankees don’t believe in them as shortstops. They’re just covering all their bases and preparing them in case, say, Josh Donaldson gets hurt and they want to use them at third base. Moving between positions is normal prospect development stuff.

Carlo asks: Judge's walk-off homer on Sunday had an exit velo of 112 MPH. I was curious what the exit velo was on IKF's bunt, the previous batted ball, and saw that it was 11 MPH. Is this the largest difference between two consecutive batted balls in the Statcast era? Is there an easy way to figure this out? Also, how many bunts have been slower than 11 MPH?

I’m not sure how to look up the biggest exit velocity gap on consecutive batted balls but I gotta think 101 mph is up there. I can tell you 11 mph is low even for a bunt. The average bunt has a 21.1 mph exit velocity this season, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s 11 mph bunt (11.0 mph on the nose, to be exact) is the slowest batted ball by a Yankee in the Statcast era (since 2015). The top five:

1. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 11.0 mph bunt on June 26th, 2022 (video)
2. Brett Gardner: 12.2 mph bunt on June 8th, 2021 (video)
3. Rougned Odor: 12.4 mph bunt on July 22nd, 2021 (video)
4. Austin Romine: 17.6 mph ground out on April 26th, 2019 (video)
5. Luke Voit: 19.1 mph ground out on Sept. 26th, 2020 (video)

The gap between the bottom three and No. 4 is pretty big, huh? Kiner-Falefa bunted the ball off his finger Sunday and had to sit the next game – “It’s essentially like a bruised nail … Just kind of a day-to-day thing. He’s fine,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty – and I guess bunting it off the meat instead of the bat really deadened the ball. That’s how you produce an 11 mph exit velocity.

The slowest hit batted ball of the Statcast era happened a few weeks ago: Christian Bethancourt managed to bunt a ball 5.2 mph on May 14th (video). Statcast couldn’t record a distance traveled because it bounced so close to the front of the plate. The second slowest* was a bunt against the Yankees last year: Jorge Polanco at 7.1 mph on Sept. 13th (video). He was trying to bunt for a hit, and it’s another one of those that fell too close to the plate to record a distance.

* Lucas Duda hit a pop up 5.2 mph in 2017 (video) but Statcast generates some funky data on those high infield pop ups, especially during the Trackman era (i.e. before MLB switched to Hawk-Eye in 2020) because the ball travels outside the radar’s range.

Alessandro asks: Would you do a bad contract for bad contract Gallo-Snell swap?

I never really thought about Blake Snell as a bad contract guy, but I guess he is. He has a 4.50 ERA (3.82 FIP) in 164 innings in two seasons with the Padres while missing time with multiple groin strains. It’s been a few years since Snell performed at a Cy Young level, but he’s still only 29 with velocity and two really good breaking balls. Snell would be a nice project for pitching coach Matt Blake.

The Padres owe Snell the remainder of his $13.1M salary this year plus $16.6M next year. Trade for him right at the deadline and it’s about $21M in real dollars. How does that get distributed for luxury tax purposes? Luxury tax hits are now recalculated to reflect actual dollars remaining on the contract. That’s easy to figure out in the offseason. The midseason adjustment? I dunno.

San Diego has seven starters for five spots (Snell, Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, MacKenzie Gore, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Joe Musgrove) and they often use Martinez in long relief, and skip the occasional Clevinger and Gore start to control their workloads. In theory, they can spare the pitching, though Manaea and Musgrove are impending free agents, so they might want to keep Snell for 2023. I dunno.

Padres GM AJ Preller loves Joey Gallo and they badly need an outfielder. Their outfielders are hitting .220/.305/.340 (89 wRC+) with 17 home runs on the season, and that’s with Jurickson Profar having a career year in left field (120 wRC+). The Padres went into last night’s game with baseball’s fifth best record (46-31) and are trying to win the World Series. They should get a more sure thing than Gallo, but hey, if Preller wants him, who am I to argue?

I think I’m a yes on Gallo for Snell. Snell can still dominate on his best days and I’d trust Blake with just about any “this guy has top notch stuff and we need to unlock him” project pitcher. Snell has been through the AL East wars and shown he won't wilt in the postseason, plus he’d be the Jameson Taillon replacement in 2023. I am intrigued. I’d do it even though Snell is infuriating to watch (he works so slow and nibbles so much, his starts are an ordeal).

Daniel asks: Estevan Florial kinda sorta putting it together? I know it’s nowhere near as simple as this but what about a world he somehow replaces Gallo?

Florial is having his best minor league season and he’s getting better with each passing month. He hit .218/.315/.404 (93 wRC+) with a 30.9% and 11.6% walk rate in 362 plate appearances with Triple-A Scranton last year. Here are the Triple-A numbers this year:

Florial is repeating the level, so he should perform better this time around. That his strikeout rate (and his swinging strike rate, 16.1% vs. 16.0%) is unchanged from last year is a red flag on the surface, though the Triple-A talent pool was diluted by COVID and injuries last year. There were a lot of guys plucked from independent leagues and rushed up from Double-A throwing Triple-A innings last season. Florial facing better competition without a big uptick in whiffs is a good sign.

(We have Statcast for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League but not the Triple-A International League and that’s too bad. I’d love to get a look at Florial’s swing and swing-and-miss rates against the various pitch types. The slash line is nice, but I’d rather see whether he’s laying off breaking balls outside the zone, making more contact in the zone, etc.)

As far as Florial replacing Joey Gallo, I think that’s too much to ask. Gallo being terrible doesn’t make Florial more MLB ready. The Yankees know more about Florial’s readiness than we do, but I’d rather let him get as many Triple-A at-bats under his belt as possible in his final minor league option year. Florial appears to finally – finally! – be making progress. Let’s not rush this.

Also, the Yankees are winning at a historic pace and are in “win the World Series or you’ll be a punchline like the 2001 Mariners” territory now. They should put their best foot forward and get a real Major League outfielder at the trade deadline to replace Gallo rather than ask this prospect with like five minutes of Triple-A success to solve a pretty major lineup problem.

If the Yankees are going to try Florial as Gallo’s replacement, then they need to do it right now. The trade deadline is a month away and they have to give Florial as many at-bats as possible to show he can contribute before the deadline to get someone else. I don’t think a month is nearly long enough to evaluate any young player, but if the Yankees are going to do it, they need to do it now so they can make the best, most informed decision at the deadline.

(I think the best thing to do is just keep running Gallo out there and hope he gets hot before the deadline, and builds some trade value. The Yankees have a big enough lead to stick with the zero bat, and maybe bottle some lightning.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)