June 28th, 2022: Judge, Astros, Castillo, Montas, Warren, Gil, Happ

Self-promotion: I was asked to write a thing at CBS explaining why the Yankees will (and will not) win 116 games this season, matching the single-season record (2001 Mariners and 1906 Cubs). They’re currently on pace to win 118 games. I hated every second I spent writing that post, but it’s there if you want to read it. Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. Yankees avoid arbitration with Judge. So after all that, the Yankees and Aaron Judge did not go to an arbitration hearing. The two sides agreed to a $19M contract just prior to their 12pm ET hearing Friday. Judge can earn another $250,000 each for winning AL MVP and World Series MVP. That giant headache is now over. Judge is signed for 2022.

“Now we can get back to focusing on baseball games and trying to bring a championship back here to New York,” Judge told Bryan Hoch. “I’m glad we were able to get through that process. It took a little longer than expected, but thankfully we’re past it. Time to focus on winning some games.”

The $19M is the midpoint of Judge’s $21M filing figure and the team’s $17M filing figure. Why did it take so long to settle in the middle? Beats me. Joel Sherman says everyone had logged into the Zoom meeting to begin the hearing when there was a request for a delay to take one last shot at a settlement, and that’s when the contract got done. This was very much a last minute deal.

“I don’t know who picked that, but kind of bad timing. We were logged in, ready to go. All dressed up,” Judge told Ron Blum. “I was happy we were able to agree on a number and settle this thing and not have to go into court there. If I would have went in that room, I probably would have missed the game (Friday), and that didn’t really sit too well with me. I valued playing this game with my teammates, trying to battle it out.”

Buster Olney says Judge rejected a $19M deal before the hearing and Judge seemed to indicate the Yankees did not discuss a settlement at the midpoint until right before the hearing. Nothing in this sport gets done until a deadline is approaching, and while the Yankees want to maintain a good relationship with Judge, it’s still a business. They used the hearing to apply pressure.

Because Judge reportedly rejected the straight $19M contract, I guess the two $250,000 awards bonuses sealed the deal. Could that really be it? Those should be very easy concessions for the Yankees. As good as Judge has been, the chances he wins either award are small, and if he does win World Series MVP, the Yankees won’t care even a tiny little bit about a $250,000 bonus.

The unique in-season hearing was a lose-lose for the Yankees. Either they win and look petty for nickel-and-diming the face of the franchise in the middle of an MVP caliber season, or they lose and look like chumps. During a normal offseason with a hearing in February or March, there are no 2022 stats making Judge look like Superman. Public opinion worked against the Yankees.

Judge had a few million bucks on the line too, though he was in the room and ready to go to a hearing, so he was willing to play hardball. If there’s anything we’ve learned about Judge this year, it’s that he’s confident in himself and is willing to play the process out to maximize his earnings. He rejected that big extension and was ready to go to a hearing. I’d bet against quick and smooth contract talks after the season. I could see Judge shopping around a bit.

“No. We got this one done. I was happy about that,” Judge told Hoch when asked whether the settlement created momentum toward a long-term deal. “I knew it would work out one way or the other. I really wasn’t too concerned about what it was going to be. I was happy we were able to agree on a number, settle this thing, and not have to go into court.”

Unsigned arbitration-eligible players were paid at the team’s filing salary until their contracts were resolved, and my quick math says the Yankees owe Judge about $926,963 in back pay. Their luxury tax payroll sits at $262.2M according to FanGraphs, leaving them $7.8M in wiggle room under the $270M third luxury tax tier. I really hope they don’t treat that as a hard cap.

Anyway, Judge’s arbitration case is settled and so is everyone else’s. His hearing was the last one on the schedule. If the hearing was weighing on his mind these last few weeks, it’s been impossible to tell based on his play, though I am open to Judge taking his game to another level now that the arbitration cloud is no longer looming overhead. Glad they avoided a hearing. That felt like a thing that would benefit no one and only possibly sour the relationship.

“I’m not really motivated by that kind of stuff,” Judge told Hoch when asked whether his contract status has affected his play. “I’m more motivated by the type of team we’ve got, the special talent we have here and the opportunity we have ahead of us. I try to just keep focusing on that, and it makes it pretty easy to block this other stuff with the business side out.”

2. Weekend thoughts. That was quite a weekend, huh? The Astros always seem to humble the Yankees when they’re flying high. At least now we can relax a little bit with a series against the very bad Athletics. We deserve an easy one after that weekend. A few thoughts on the last few days.

Getting no-hit and bouncing back

Two days after the best win of the season, the Yankees got no-hit by three Astros pitchers, and there wasn’t anything all that close to a hit either. The Yankees had only two batted balls with an expected batting average over .340, and the outfielder camped under Joey Gallo’s fly ball (.670 xAVG, video) and Aaron Judge’s liner was right at the shortstop (.720 xAVG, video). There was no standout defensive play. It was a decisive no-hitter.

“It’s just a tough one for the boys,” Gerrit Cole, who was fantastic in the no-hit loss, told Bryan Hoch after the game. “I thought we played every pitch today. We played really sharp defense. We pitched pretty well, for the most part. The cold hard truth is, we got outpitched and outplayed. Credit to the opponent: It was absolutely a magical day for them.”

The no-hitter was the first time the Yankees have been no-hit since the last time the Astros no-hit them, which was that combined six-pitcher effort in 2003. The Yankees have not been no-hit by a) a single pitcher, or b) a team other than the Astros since Hall of Famer Hoyt Wilhelm no-hit them with the Orioles in 1958. That was during Wilhelm’s very brief stint as a starter (52 starts and 1,018 relief appearances in his career). A few no-hitter nuggets:

• At 52-19 (.732), the Yankees had by far the best ever record for a team that was no-hit at least 50 games into the season, edging out the 38-17 (.611) Athletics in 1990.
• Only the Athletics (4,829 games), Expos/Nationals (3,607 games), and Angels (3,556 games) had a longer active streak of not being no-hit than the Yankees (2,984 games).
• It’s the first no-hitter at the new Yankee Stadium. It’s also the first time the Yankees ever had fewer than two hits in a game at the new Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees had a combined .094 xAVG on Saturday. It’s their second lowest ever in the Statcast era (since 2015). They had a .083 xAVG in a loss to the Rays in Sept. 2019.

The Yankees went 16 – 16! – consecutive innings without a hit spanning the ninth inning Friday and the sixth inning Sunday. That ties the Expansion Era (since 1961) record held by the 1973 Athletics and 1981 Dodgers. The silver lining: the 1973 A’s and 1981 Dodgers won the World Series. I guess the Yankees are playing 4D chess with this no-hit nonsense.

Getting no-hit and winning the World Series in the same season is rare (the 2018 Red Sox are the last team to do it) but not because teams that get no-hit don’t have the gumption to win the World Series. It’s rare because it requires two rare events in the same season, compounding the rarity. As much as getting no-hit sucks – and it absolutely sucks – one game doesn’t tell you much in the grand scheme of things. It’s just nine innings. Big picture, the Yankees will be fine.

That said, the Astros have been the Yankees’ kryptonite the last seven years now, so you’ll have to forgive me for not caring about silver linings. As good as the offense has been overall, it goes into these deep lulls way too often. Just in the last week:

• Sunday: Jose Urquidy took a no-hitter into the seventh inning.
• Saturday: Combined no-hitter.
• Friday: Justin Verlander retired 11 of 13 at one point.
• Thursday: Framber Valdez retired 14 straight at one point.
• Wednesday: Shane Baz retired 12 of 14 to begin the game.
• Monday: Shane McClanahan retired 11 straight at one point.

There are these long stretches of the game – we’re talking three, four, five innings at a time – where the Yankees muster nothing offensively. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series, that’s probably how they’ll go out. The pitching will do its part to keep the Yankees in the game, but the offense will get shut down because most of the middle of the order is still susceptible to hard-throwing righties, and the bottom of the order isn’t good enough to pick up the slack.

“Teams are going to go through this stuff,” Jose Trevino told Ryan Dunleavy following the no-hitter. “We’ll see how we answer the next few days. There are no certainties in baseball, but if we put good at-bats together we should be fine.”

To the Yankees’ credit, they bounced back well Sunday and earned a series split. As well as a team can bounce back while getting no-hit into the seventh inning, anyway. It would have been real easy to pack it in after Giancarlo Stanton hit that homer to snap the hitless streak, but no, the Yankees rallied to tie the game, Mike King did kingly work to strand the bases loaded in the tenth, and then Judge walked it off. That’s a game the 2021 Yankees lose. Not a doubt about it in my mind.

“We noticed the innings piling up, for sure, but you can’t panic in that time,” Stanton told Hoch. “We were no-hit into the seventh and we ended up winning the game. If you give up in the eighth with five outs left, two outs left, you’re giving them an advantage. As long as we’ve got an out left, we’ve got a chance to win.”

Also, Judge faced up and down reliever Seth Martinez in the tenth inning rather than one of Houston’s high leverage arms because Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, and Ryan Pressly were all unavailable due to their recent workload, Dusty Baker told Chander Rome (Ryne Stanek pitched earlier in the game). Here’s what I wrote following Thursday’s game:

Thanks to Rizzo’s 16-pitch (walk), the Yankees faced four relievers who were compromised to some degree by their recent workloads, and it helped them win the game. And it might help them win more games this weekend, because those four relievers (Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek) have pitched back-to-back days and need a breather. I don’t know how willing Dusty Baker is to use his relievers three straight days, but they’re gonna be shorthanded in the bullpen at some point this weekend now.

Sure enough, the Yankees faced some of Houston’s second tier relievers in the eighth (Phil Maton, who served up DJ LeMahieu’s game-tying two-run homer) and tenth (Martinez) innings Sunday. Everything in this game is connected. Bullpen usage one day dictates what you can do the next. What the Yankees and Anthony Rizzo did Thursday helped them win Sunday.

The Yankees did not lead for a single inning in the Astros series. They led after Judge’s walk-off hit Thursday and walk-off homer Sunday, and that’s it. They played arguably their worst 15 innings of the season Saturday and Sunday (certainly on offense) but found a way to split the series. The no-hitter stinks and at some point the Yankees have to get over the Astros hump. Considering how dire things looked at one point this weekend, the Yankees responded well to finish out that series. It is 2021 no more.

“These two teams, we’re going to be seeing each other a lot down the road,” Judge told Hoch. “We’ve seen each other a lot in years past in the postseason. You look forward to these weekends, playing good teams and seeing where you stack up.”

Sizing up the AL

A few weeks back, right as the Yankees began their first series of the season against the Rays, I noted they were about to enter maybe their toughest stretch of the season: 23 games against the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Twins, and Rays in a 29-game span (in my defense, the Angels were still very early in their free fall). Here’s what I wrote at the time:

The Yankees have wrapped up the “easy” part of their early season schedule. Thursday night’s win in Tampa was the first game of a 29-game stretch in which the Yankees will play the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Twins, and Rays a combined 23 times (the other six games are against the Cubs and Tigers). Those five teams have a combined .600 winning percentage, or a 97-win pace. Given the injuries and the degree of difficulty, I think going 13-10 in those 23 games would qualify as a good outcome even though it will probably feel like the sky is falling (13-10 means they’d still be on pace for 107 wins!). One game at a time though.

The Yankees went a perfect 6-0 against the Cubs and Tigers, so they took care of business there. Those other 23 games against contenders? 16-7. If I considered 13-10 a good outcome, I’d have to say 16-7 qualifies as a great outcome. The Yankees were in almost every one of those seven losses too. Only two of the seven was by more than two runs, and one of the other two was a three-run loss.

The season is nearly halfway complete and the Yankees have played every American League team except the Mariners, who aren’t really contenders (maybe they get hot, but come on, it’s the Mariners). Based on what I’ve seen to date, I’d put AL contenders into these tiers:

1. Yankees, Astros
2. Red Sox, Blue Jays
3. Twins, Guardians, Rays
4. Angels, White Sox

The Red Sox started slowly but have the American League’s best record since the cherry-picked date of May 17th (28-10, the Yankees are 27-11 during that time). I’m not sold on their bullpen yet though, and their offense is so heavily dependent on three players (Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and JD Martinez). The Blue Jays have rotation issues and the Rays aren’t quite as good as in the past. They’re both good and make for a tough nine innings though.

Ultimately, the Yankees and Astros have distinguished themselves as the class of the AL, and I thought that even before this past weekend. Houston is really freaking good and they clearly are not scared of the Yankees or Yankee Stadium. The Astros have won the pennant in the last two 162-game seasons and they’ve gone to the ALCS the last five years. It’s fair to say the pennant goes through Houston. There are no shortcuts and the Yankees have to expect to face them in October. It’s a dragon they must slay.

Miscellany

Mike King hit 100 mph Sunday. 100.3 mph, to be exact. He threw the three fastest pitches of his career that day (100.3 mph, 99.2 mph, 98.9 mph) and had never thrown a pitch over 98.7 mph previously. “I would hope to make it a regular thing,” he told Gary Phillips. It’s the middle of the season and it’s nice and hot out, so guys are at their max velocity, plus I’m sure King had some “I’m facing the Astros with the bases loaded” adrenaline. He’s become some kinda weapon out in the bullpen. It’s worth trying him as a starter again next year, but right now, King’s doing hero’s work in high leverage spots … Did pitching coach Matt Blake fix Albert Abreu? That would be his greatest accomplishment. Abreu retired seven of the eight batters he faced Monday to spare the rest of the bullpen (video). Even if he gets jettisoned when Aroldis Chapman returns, that appearance alone made the waiver claim worth it … And finally, an important follow up: Yankee Stadium also shows pitch movement on the scoreboard. I mentioned they do it in Toronto and Jameson Taillon used it to his advantage last week. My lazy ass had not been to a game since April prior to this past weekend and the Yankees added that info to the scoreboard at some point in May. Thanks to those of you who emailed me to point that out. Seeing how Taillon used that info to make adjustments against the Blue Jays, it’s safe to say he does it at Yankee Stadium too. I’m sure other Yankees do as well.

3. Yankees have discussed Castillo. A wild trade rumor has appeared. According to Peter Gammons (subs. req’d), the Yankees have “talked” to the Reds about righty Luis Castillo, who is bound to be moved one of these days. Gammons has several Yankees-related nuggets in his column, so let’s go through them one by one.

Yankees have “talked” about Castillo

Do the Yankees need another starting pitcher? In theory, no. Would I rather the Yankees trade for Castillo and then figure out how to squeeze six starters into five rotation spots? Yes. There is no such thing as too much pitching and there’s enough injury (Luis Severino) and workload (Nestor Cortes) risk in the rotation that bringing in another starter is justifiable, not that you need to justify bringing in a pitcher with Castillo’s talent.

Castillo, 29, missed the start of the season with a shoulder issue and has a 3.71 ERA (3.45 FIP) in 51 innings since returning. His fastball is averaging 96.5 mph this year, so the shoulder must be good. In recent weeks Castillo has gone into Toronto (video), Boston (video), and St. Louis (video) and dominated contending teams in their building (combined 18 IP, 14 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 18 K).

On paper, Castillo has almost everything the Yankees want in a pitcher. He has a high velocity sinker, a top of the line changeup (video), and a history of getting ground balls (career 53.6%) and limiting hard contact (career 5.3% barrel rate). The one thing Castillo lacks is a sweepy slider, though that can be taught (the horizontal break on his slider is 75% below average).

Castillo is under team control next year and he’ll be a hot commodity at the deadline (the Mets, Padres, and Twins are also after him), so this will be a bidding war scenario. The Reds slashed payroll over the winter but I have to think they’ll look to maximize talent in a Castillo trade (he’s making $7.35M this year). Or maybe they’ll attach Mike Moustakas the rest of his $22M obligation (2022 salary plus 2023 option buyout) to Castillo and prioritize dumping money. I dunno.

The Yankees need an outfield bat more than another starter, but there’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength, and Castillo is a multi-year add. He’d allow them to scale back on Nestor’s workload, and he’s also the kinda guy who can start Game 2 of a postseason series behind Gerrit Cole. When pitchers like this become available and you’re trying to win a World Series, you have to call. If you don’t have the prospects to get him, fine, but you have to try.

Yankees are “going to make a run” at Montas

These are Gammons’ words, but he says the Yankees are “going to make a run” at Athletics righty Frankie Montas. Montas, catcher Sean Murphy, and outfielder Ramon Laureano are the only remaining A’s players with significant trade value. Montas is having a strong season (3.21 ERA and 3.14 FIP) and is under team control through 2023. We’ll see him Tuesday night.

Similar to Castillo, Montas is a Yankees type in that he has a heavy sinker (averages 95.5 mph) and a very good secondary pitch (splitter). His ground ball rate (43.2% since fully converting to the sinker in 2020) and barrel rate (7.9% since 2020) aren’t as strong, however, though he has more sweep on his slider that Castillo (41% more than average). The equipment’s mostly there. Montas has the power sinker and bat-missing splitter, and he chews up innings.

Would I rather have Castillo or Montas? I would happily take either but lean Castillo because I like his changeup more than Montas’ splitter, plus he’s better at limiting hard contact. These are two really good pitchers with the same amount of team control. I’d say the asking price could decide this, but I imagine there will be a lot of interest in Castillo and Montas. It’ll hurt to get either guy. For now though, there’s some smoke surrounding the Yankees wanting a controllable starter.

Reds have looked at Warren

Breakout righty Will Warren is among the prospects the Reds have looked at, presumably in advance of potential Castillo trade talks. Last year’s eighth rounder has taken a step forward this year and owns a 3.39 ERA (3.35 FIP) with a 25.5% strikeout rate in 61 innings split between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset.

I am pro-trading pitching prospects. You have to keep some for yourself, but the Yankees have been so good at turning later round draft picks into solid prospects (Warren, fifth rounder Ken Waldichuk, sixth rounder Hayden Wesneski, etc.) that we can say it’s a repeatable skill, and one benefit is having more trade fodder. Picking who to trade and who to keep isn’t easy, but if parting with Warren is what it takes to get a guy like Castillo, sign me up.

Gil on ask lists

Righty Luis Gil, who had Tommy John surgery last month, is a player teams are asking about, per Gammons. I would 100% make Gil available. The timing of his Tommy John surgery means he’ll miss the rest of this season and most of next season, so his next full season will be 2024. And there’s a decent chance he’s a reliever long-term. Potentially a great one, but a reliever.

Winning the World Series this year has to be the priority. The Yankees are having a historically great season, Cole and Giancarlo Stanton are still in their prime years, and free agents-to-be Aaron Judge and Jameson Taillon are still wearing pinstripes. If you’re not willing to trade a recently Tommy John surgery-ed pitcher under those conditions, you’re hugging prospects too hard. You’re cool, Luis, but I would ship you out for immediate MLB roster help in a heartbeat.

4. Scouting the Trade Market: Ian Happ. The Yankees didn’t need to go hitless for 16 straight innings to remind everyone they could use another bat, but they were nice enough to do it this weekend anyway. Realistically, the outfield is the only place to add offense. The Yankees seem unlikely to change their catching mix in-season, they’re stuck with Josh Donaldson and his contract, and they missed their chance to add an impact shortstop in the offseason (which good shortstops will be available at the deadline anyway?).

So, the outfield it is. Andrew Benintendi is the best available rental and the Royals are already exploring trade possibilities. Given Chicago’s behavior the last 12 months (trade every veteran, even the popular ones) and their record (28-45), the Cubs again figure to be active sellers at the deadline. Catcher Willson Contreras will be a hot commodity. So will outfielder Ian Happ, who was not part of their 2016 World Series team (he debuted in 2017).

“At some point, you get numb to it,” Happ told Patrick Mooney (subs. req’d) this past weekend when asked about the trade rumors. “You get numb to it, and you just have to go do your job every day. I’ve said this before, we’ve all been through a stretch where there’s been rumors. Playing in this market — whether it was the offseason or midseason where that kind of stuff was swirling — you’ve been through it at some point.”

Would Happ make the Yankees better? Well, yes, because Joey Gallo has set the bar very low. But what does Happ bring to the table and what might it cost to get him? Let’s dive in.

Contract status

Happ is not a rental. He will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next year. He’s making $6.85M this season, so trade for him at the deadline and you’re absorbing roughly $2.26M in salary and luxury tax obligation. FanGraphs has the luxury tax payroll at $262.2M right now, so even if the Yankees treat the $270M threshold as a hard cap, Happ would fit in nicely. He figures to make something in the $10M to $12M range next year.

Injury history

Pretty much squeaky clean. Happ spent 10 days on the injured list with a rib contusion suffered in an outfield collision last May (video) and that’s it. He’s never been on the injured list otherwise. No red flags at all. Onward.

Defense

Happ was drafted as an infielder and he’s played every position except shortstop and catcher in the big leagues (he even pitched once), though he’s not a super utility type. He’s started only four games on the infield since 2019 and he doesn’t even bounce between outfield spots anymore. Happ is a full-time left fielder now and has indicated he likes having one set position.

“That consistency breeds success, I think,” Happ told Andy Martinez last month. “Then being able to get really, really comfortable in that spot and not worry about all right, what does it look like in center? How do I transition back to left? Do I have to take ground balls? It’s knowing that you’re gonna have one thing to worry about.”

The numbers say Happ is average to a tick above in left field (+9 DRS and -1 OAA since 2019) – “When I looked at the metrics, my first step was really good. My jumps were really good and I would kinda lose a little bit on that efficiency part,” Happ told Martinez – and his arm is terrible. His average top 10% outfield throw since 2019 is 84.4 mph. The MLB average is 88.9 mph.

Having a set position can absolutely help a player offensively, and Happ is having his best season at the plate (more on that in a bit). He’s comfortable in left and is no longer jumping between positions. There’s less on his plate now. The versatility is nice in theory, but I think you have to consider Happ a left fielder who is an emergency option – and an emergency option only – at other positions.

For the Yankees, that means either moving Aaron Hicks back to center and Aaron Judge back to right, or keeping Judge in center and moving Hicks to right. Hicks has not played right field since 2017. He had not played left field since 2017 prior to this year, so he’s shown he can make that transition, but it will be another in-season transition. I don’t think having to move Hicks to right is anywhere close to a dealbreaker for Happ. It’s just a thing that will have to happen.

Baserunning

Average-ish. Happ steals a handful of bases per season but not efficiently (career 69% success rate), and he’s not going to do a lot of first-to-thirds and things like that. The numbers since Opening Day 2021:

• FanGraphs baserunning: +0.4 runs
• Baseball Prospectus baserunning: +1.0 runs
• Extra-base taken rate: 29% (MLB average is 41%)
• Home-to-first time: 4.36 seconds (MLB average is 4.47 seconds)
• Sprint speed: 27.9 feet per second (MLB average is 27.0 feet per second)

Happ’s not going to kill you on the bases – his extra-base taken rate has gone from 53% to 55% to 44% to 42% to 28% to 30% the last five years, what’s that about? – but he’s not going to add much value either. It is what it is. Happ doesn’t make his money with his legs.

Offense

Happ, 28 in August, is enjoying the best full season of his career. He’s rebounded from last season’s .226/.323/.434 (103 wRC+) effort with a .279/.376/.458 (132 wRC+) line this year, and he’s drastically cut his strikeouts and swings and misses. Happ was consistently a 30% strikeout guy prior to 2022. This year it’s in the teens.

Here are the largest year-to-year strikeout rate declines among the 243 players with at least 400 plate appearances last season and 200 plate appearances this season:

1. Jackie Bradley Jr.: -10.6% (30.8% to 20.3%)
2. Ian Happ: -10.0% (29.2% to 19.2%)
3. Javier Baez: -9.9% (33.6% to 23.8%)
4. Gio Urshela: -8.5% (24.7% to 16.2%)
5. Dylan Carlson: -8.4% (24.6% to 16.1%)

Remember when Gio kept popping up on those biggest strikeout rate increase leaderboards last year? Seems he corrected that. Anyway, Happ also has a career best 11.0% swinging strike rate and a career best 84.7% in-zone contact rate. He was a big swing-and-miss guy earlier in his career. Now he’s got a more contact focused approach.

This is relatively new but it did not start this season. Happ has been this hitter since last August, when he alluded to some mechanical adjustments. “There's a couple mechanical things that are kind of falling in place,” he told Jordan Bastian at the time. The numbers:

Happ was an unremarkable corner outfielder who took walks and had some pop, but otherwise was a low batting average swing-and-miss guy. Now he’s a more complete hitter who hits for average and power, and still draws plenty of walks. This version of Happ is much more preferable to the old version. This guy is a tougher out and more productive.

The elephant in the room is Happ is a switch-hitter who has historically been much better against righties. He’s hitting .254/.366/.439 (123 wRC+) against righties this season and that’s right in line with his career 121 wRC+ against righties. Against lefties though:

• 2022: .352/.407/.519 (159 wRC+)
• Career: .247/.323/.399 (93 wRC+)

Happ hasn’t been dreadful against lefties throughout his career, but he’s never been this good. He says last August’s adjustments helped him from the right side of the plate – “Being able to go in there with a little bit of a rhythm and kind of free things up right-handed was huge,” he told Gordon Wittenmyer in April – but I also see a .436 BABIP in 59 plate appearances against lefties and think maybe we should hold off on declaring this a new version of Ian Happ.

There has been legitimate improvement in Happ’s game since last summer. He’s making more contact and striking less than he has at any point in his career, and he’s always been a good exit velocity guy, which the Yankees value. I would bet the farm against .352/.407/.519 being his new true talent level against lefties. There’s some regression coming there, at which point Happ becomes what, a 120 wRC+ hitter overall? 110 wRC+? I’m not sure.

What will it take?

We have a decent blueprint for a trade involving 1.5 years of an above-average outfielder: Gallo. Above-average seems silly now, but Gallo was an All-Star last year. He didn’t crater until putting on pinstripes. The Yankees gave up four good prospects for Gallo but not any of their very best prospects, though the Joely Rodriguez factor complicates things.

The other recent notable 1.5 years of an above-average outfielder trade is Starling Marte to the Marlins in 2020. The Marlins traded 3.5 years of an average big leaguer (random Yankee Caleb Smith) and two of their top 20-30 prospects (Humberto Mejia and Julio Frias) for Marte, though there was a financial component to that trade. The Diamondbacks wanted to dump salary.

It must be noted the Cubs have focused on quality over quantity with their recent trades. A few rebuilding teams are going after depth and trading for three or four good prospects rather than one or two great prospects, like the Rangers with Gallo and the Pirates with Jameson Taillon. The Cubs have not done that. They’ve gone after that one great prospect. Three examples:

• Javier Baez to Mets: Traded with a depth MLB arm (Trevor Williams) for outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, the No. 19 pick in the previous year’s draft, and nothing else.
• Craig Kimbrel to White Sox: Traded for Nick Madrigal, the No. 4 overall pick three years prior, even though he was out with a season-ending hamstring tear.
• Anthony Rizzo to Yankees: Ate Rizzo’s salary to get outfielder Kevin Alcantara, who will finish the year as a top 100 prospect.

The Yankees are more than willing to package three or four second tier prospects in a trade, but one great prospect? When’s the last time they traded one of those? Justus Sheffield for James Paxton? Sheffield was a top 100 prospect but not truly great. Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda might be the last time, and the Yankees never liked Montero as much as they put on publicly.

If the Cubs insist on a top prospect, meaning Anthony Volpe or Jasson Dominguez, then forget it. The Yankees aren’t doing it. I’d argue they should be willing to move those guys for an impact big league player given the season they’re having (foot on the gas, pls), but if you’re trading Volpe or Dominguez, don’t you have to do better than Happ? I mean, no offense, but shop around a bit.

Even as a rental, I prefer Benintendi to Happ because I trust the contact track record (the “this guy suddenly figured out how to make consistent contact” thing makes me a little nervous) and I think the Royals are more likely to settle for a package of expendable second tier prospects. I don’t love either player but I accept they’re likely to be the best available outfield bats at the trade deadline. Either would help the Yankees as a Gallo replacement.

5. 2022 draft prospect: Tennessee RHP Blade Tidwell. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Tidwell is among the many top college pitchers who got hurt this spring. He did not have Tommy John surgery, however. Tidwell went down with a sore shoulder in January and eventually made it back in late March, first as a reliever and later rejoining the rotation. He threw 39 innings with a 3.00 ERA (4.32 FIP) and a 32.2% strikeout rate this year, but also a 1.38 HR/9.

The Volunteers had a historic regular season – they went 59-7 with a +421 run differential (yes, +421) – but they were eliminated by an underdog Notre Dame team in the Super Regionals, and Tidwell gave up five runs in three innings in the Game 1 start. It was a bitter end to the season and his Tennessee career. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 28
• FanGraphs: No. 21
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 33
• MLB.com: No. 23

Tidwell is a draft-eligible sophomore who was a top 10 rounds talent out of high school in 2020, but he was not picked in the five-round draft, and two years later he’s a first round candidate. It worked out for him in the end. Here’s some video and here’s a snippet of Keith Law’s scouting report (subs. req’d) since he has the most recent post-injury information:

(He returned) showing the kind of stuff that made him a potential top-10 pick before the shoulder issues. Tidwell has been up to 99 and regularly sits 94-97 with a solid-average slider that’s 81-87, short but often with tight enough break to elicit chases out of the zone. His command and control are both below average … (His usage) leaves the question of his durability unanswered. If you think he can start, and that the shoulder issue is not serious, he’s a clear first-rounder, maybe even landing in the top half of the round.

For what it’s worth, Jim Callis has the Yankees taking Tidwell in his latest mock draft, and this late in the game, Callis isn’t putting players with teams on a whim. There’s some smoke there. Tidwell finished the season strong and healthy, though obviously the medicals will have to be scrutinized. If those check out, Tidwell’s power arm would be a nice get late in the first round.

The big question other than the medicals is whether the Yankees would go for a pitcher in the first round given their recent track record of going after safer college bats that check a lot of boxes analytically. In a draft class thin on healthy high-end arms, I could see Tidwell coming off the board before the Yankees pick at No. 25. We’ll see.

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Scott Patterson. By request, this week’s random Yankee was a member of the “minor league relievers with great numbers but iffy stuff” club. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

This Scott Patterson is not to be confused with the other Scott Patterson, the Gilmore Girls actor who also pitched in the Yankees’ farm system once upon a time. This Scott Patterson grew up outside Pittsburgh and was not drafted out of high school or college (despite throwing a perfect game as a senior at West Virginia State in 2002). After school, he headed to independent ball.

From 2002 through the middle of 2006, Patterson pitched for multiple independent teams and pitched well enough, posting a 3.51 ERA in 425.2 innings. The Mariners gave him a look as a non-roster player in Spring Training 2004, but he didn’t impress enough to get a minor league roster spot, and wound up back in independent ball that season.

It wasn’t until Patterson moved to the bullpen full-time in 2006, his fifth season in independent ball, that he broke out. And it was only because he hurt his finger that he moved to the bullpen in the first place. Patterson slammed his finger at home while preparing for the season and didn’t have time to stretch out as a starter, so his team, the Lancaster Barnstormers, put him in the bullpen.

“I stubbed my finger in a door at my host family’s house in Lancaster,” Patterson said in 2008. “They brought me back slowly and said, ‘Could you work out of the pen?’ It was my first time ever doing that, and I just let it go for an inning. I was up to 90, 91, 92 miles an hour, and I was like, ‘This could be good. Let me stay here for a little bit.’”

That season Patterson allowed two runs with 31 strikeouts and only five walks in 23 innings for the Barnstormers and MLB teams took notice. The Yankees purchased his contract from Lancaster on June 17th, 2006, and assigned him to Double-A Trenton. Patterson pitched to a 2.33 ERA with 44 strikeouts and eight walks in 38.2 innings with the Thunder that year.

Despite his age (28) and despite his success in 2006, the Yankees sent Patterson back to Double-A in 2007. He was great again: 1.09 ERA with 91 strikeouts and 15 walks in 74.1 innings. Patterson made just a single appearance with Triple-A Scranton, yet the Yankees liked him enough to add him to the 40-man roster following that 2007 season.

Going into 2008, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Patterson to No. 28 prospect in the farm system. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Patterson has drawn some comparisons to Adam Wainwright because he's tall and lanky, drives his low-90s fastball downhill and owns a big, low-70s curveball. While scouts would love to see him throw his curve with more power, it has deception and he commands it well, spotting it all over the strike zone or burying it as a chase pitch. Patterson's deceptive high release point adds to his overall package.

“All he’s done is get everybody out. It’s been pretty unbelievable. He’s gotten us out of jam after jam. He has a chance,” Joe Girardi said in Spring Training 2008, when Patterson opened eyes (7.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K). Alas, “he has a chance” didn’t lead to a roster spot. Random Yankee Jonathan Albaladejo got the last Opening Day bullpen spot and Patterson went to Triple-A.

The mid-to-late 2000s was the “this minor league reliever has great numbers, so call him up!” era and Patterson was definitely one of those guys. He dominated in Double-A in 2007 and was quite good with Triple-A to begin 2008, throwing 23.3 innings with a 3.04 ERA and 22 strikeouts. The setup crew in front of Mariano Rivera was shaky, so why not call Patterson up?

On June 1st, the Yankees did indeed summon Patterson. They dumped Morgan Ensberg and called up Patterson to give the bullpen an extra arm while Joba Chamberlain was transitioning from reliever to starter. Patterson’s stint with the Yankees was expected to be temporary because Jorge Posada was days away from being activated off the injured list.

"We have some decisions to make over the next few days, but for the short term this is what we're going to do," Girardi told the Associated Press.

Patterson didn’t wait long to make his Major League debut. He got into the game that night, against the Twins at the Metrodome. Random Yankee Darrell Rasner started, allowed four runs in 5.1 innings, and Patterson replaced him in the sixth. It went well enough to start. He got Mike Lamb to ground out, walked Brendan Harris, then struck out Carlos Gomez to end the inning.

Girardi sent Patterson back out for the seventh and it was a grind. Alexi Casilla worked a 3-2 count and grounded out. Mike Redmond worked a 3-2 count and walked. Justin Morneau worked a 3-2 count and struck out. Then Michael Cuddyer laced a 1-2 pitch to right field for a run-scoring triple. I remember Patterson standing on the mound and watching the play rather than backing up third base. He had that deer in the headlights look.

“I didn't sleep. Didn't sleep at all,” Patterson told William Sullivan about his call up and his MLB debut. “Nerve-wracking, but we got through it. After I threw that first pitch it was kind of back to normal.”

The triple ended Patterson’s night (1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K) and ultimately his Yankees career. With the big league team, anyway. As planned, he was sent back down to Triple-A a few days later when Posada was activated, and he stayed there until Sept. 8th, when he was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for random Yankee Humberto Sanchez.

Three days after being designated, Patterson was claimed off waivers by the Padres, and they put him in their September bullpen. He made three appearances with San Diego and threw 3.1 scoreless innings with five walks and four strikeouts. The one appearance with the Yankees and three appearances with the Padres are the entirety of Patterson’s big league career.

From 2009-16, Patterson bounced from the Padres to the Athletics to the Red Sox to the Mariners to the Mets to the Italian Baseball League and several independent league teams. At age 37, Patterson finally stopped playing after 2016. He worked one year as pitching coach for the Lancaster Barnstormers in 2017. I have no idea what he’s been doing since.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. Over the weekend Bryce Harper took a pitch to the hand and suffered a broken left thumb. He’s still going through tests to determine whether he needs surgery and the Phillies haven’t announced a timetable for his return, though I imagine it’ll be a while. I mention this for two reasons. One, it could create a trade partner for Joey Gallo. He’s not going to fetch much but would give Philadelphia a cheap Harper replacement who, at the very least, will improve their awful defense. I gotta think the Padres still want Gallo. Having the Phillies as a viable alternative gives the Yankees a little more leverage in trade talks. And two, the Phillies could become a player for any and all of the outfield bats who could interest the Yankees (Andrew Benintendi, Ian Happ, etc.). There could be a little more competition on the trade market now … And finally, Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson took a job with LSU this past weekend. He is leaving the Twins – the first place Twins – following their series in Cleveland this week. Dan Hayes (subs. req’d) says Johnson is getting a raise from $350,000 a year to $750,000. College ball also offers better work-life balance. Top college programs are throwing big money around to poach coaches from pro teams nowadays (Triple-A Scranton pitching coach Dustin Glant left to join Purdue last August). Seems like a good time for pitching coach Matt Blake to ask for a raise, eh? Lindsey Adler says Blake’s contract is up after the season. He should ask for the extension they offered Aaron Judge in Spring Training.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)