RAB Thoughts

June 24th, 2022: Judge, Stanton, Cortes, Trevino, Injuries, Abreu, Mailbag

Added 2022-06-24 12:00:08 +0000 UTC

UPDATE: I woke up and felt like writing a bit more, so I added stuff throughout the Weekday Thoughts section. I also fixed a typo in the Trevino section. He's been great, but not +21.9 WAR great.

* * *

Folks, I have a confession: I thought the Yankees would lose Thursday night. The last two nights, really. That’s baseball, you know? Sometimes you lose. Well, I’ll never make that mistake again. This team, man. If you combined the 1998 juggernaut with the 2009 walk-off kings to form a Voltron team, they’d be the 2022 Yankees. At one point this year the Yankees were 7-6. They are 45-12 since then. That’s a 128-win pace. How fun. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Judge’s arbitration hearing (for real this time). How do the Yankees walk into Aaron Judge’s arbitration hearing and argue over $4M after that win Thursday night? I know 2022 stats aren’t permissible, but come on, it’s so silly to fight this guy over 1.5% of the payroll. I don’t know how – or why – the Yankees will do it, but apparently they’re going to do it.

It turns out Judge’s arbitration hearing was not scheduled for June 22nd. It is – and always was, apparently – scheduled for June 24th, so it will finally happen Friday at noon Eastern. It will be held on Zoom and Judge said he plans to wear a nice suit and attend. He could skip it and let his representatives handle it, but nope, he wants to be there.

“I’m going to introduce myself to the arbitrators, then sit back and let my team do the work,” Judge told Bryan Hoch. “... It’s all business. For me, it’s plain and simple: I love this team, I love this organization and everything, but this is a business side of it that I don’t like at times. I don’t think a lot of people like it. I don’t think the team likes it. You have to go through it. You handle it and you move on.”

Seeing how Judge rejected a $200M+ extension before the season and is having this monster MVP caliber year, I’d say he’s handling the business side very well. It seems to motivate him, if anything. Maybe taking him to arbitration is part of an elaborate scheme to aggravate Judge and have him take it out on opposing pitchers. The Yankees are out here playing 4D chess.

Anyway, I don’t have anything to add to what I said about Judge’s arbitration hearing earlier this week. The hearing was not scheduled for the day we all thought, but it’s happening soon, and by time Tuesday’s post rolls around, we should have a ruling. It’ll be nice to get this over with. I’m guessing Judge feels that way more than anyone.

2. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees have won 52 of their first 70 games for only the third time in franchise history (they went 53-17 in both 1928 and 1939) and the home winning streak is up to 15 games. That’s tied for the fourth longest in team history. They had an 18-gamer in 1942, and 16-gamers in 1938 and 1941. Always cool when you're doing things that haven't been done since before World War II. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Judge and Stanton coming around

Prior to his two-homer game Wednesday – I can’t remember ever seeing a ball hit over the catwalks at Tropicana Field (video) – and two-hit game Thursday, Aaron Judge was in a 4-for-27 (.148) rut that dated back to the Cubs series. Giancarlo Stanton still hasn’t really gotten going since returning from the injured list either. He went 6-for-49 (.122) in his first 16 games back before clubbing that home run Thursday.

Last year the Yankees would have been dead in the water had Judge and Stanton slumped at the same time. They were so dependent on those two for offense. This year the Yankees managed to go 6-2 during Judge’s eight-game skid while averaging 5.13 runs per game. Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres have been great lately, and Aaron Hicks and Jose Trevino have provided numerous timely hits as well. There is much more balance and depth to the offense now.

Judge’s two homers Wednesday are a reminder it can turn around with one swing and hopefully that homer Thursday is the swing that gets Stanton’s going. He hasn’t been striking out excessively – Stanton has a 20.9% strikeout rate (and a 22.4% walk rate) since returning from the injured list – but he hasn’t been elevating the ball. When Stanton slumps, he rolls over on a lot of grounders. This was post-injured list spray chart going into Thursday:

Too many grounders to the left side, where defenses tend to stack their infielders. Stanton is at his best when he’s rifling balls back up the middle and to right field – Cameron Maybin had some good commentary about Stanton flying open during the Rays series – and that homer Thursday was a bomb to right. Fingers crossed that’s a sign the slump is ending.

We’ve seen Stanton do this enough times over the years to know this slump will be followed by a molten hot streak in which Giancarlo puts the Yankees on his back for a month. Judge got all the attention earlier this year and deservedly so, but Stanton hit .337/.411/.652 (196 wRC+) in the 25 games prior to going on the injured list. Another one of those is coming soon.

“This is different than those times where he seems a little out of whack or he’s chasing,”’ Aaron Boone told Howie Kussoy. “He’s not doing that. At bat-wise I feel like he’s in a pretty good place and it’s just bubbling where he kinda really takes off.”

I was going to say the Yankees are unstoppable when Judge and Stanton are both locked in, but they seem unstoppable anyway? They were winning and putting runs on the board even when those two were in a slow period the last few days. Now Judge has four hits in the last two games and Stanton hit a ball into the right field second deck. The Yankees are at their best when those two are at their best, and the arrow's pointing up.

Judge’s pursuit of Maris

Wednesday’s two home runs gave Judge 27 dingers through 69 team games, putting him on pace to hit 63 homers this season. Will he do it? Almost certainly not. But we’re almost halfway through the season now and he’s maintained a 62-64 homer pace pretty much all year, so Judge has as good a chance to hit 60+ dingers as anyone in recent memory.

The American League single-season home run record is still 61 by Roger Maris in 1961. Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa all played in the National League when they rewrote the home run record book in the late-1990s and early-2000s. Here are the best homer seasons in AL history:

Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 61
Babe Ruth, 1927 Yankees: 60
Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 59
Jimmie Foxx, 1932 Athletics: 58
Hank Greenberg, 1938 Tigers: 58
Alex Rodriguez, 2002 Rangers: 57
Ken Griffey Jr., 1997 Mariners: 56
Ken Griffey Jr., 1998 Mariners: 56
Several tied with 54 (most recently Jose Bautista with the 2010 Blue Jays)

Judge’s 52-homer rookie season is tied for 16th all-time in the American League. As noted in the previous section, Judge hit a little eight-game slump there, but he bounced back with two homers Wednesday, homers that kept up this historic pace and make you believe 60 is possible. A few things about Judge potentially making a run at 60+ dingers:

Judge absolutely has the power and plate discipline (and plays in the right home ballpark) to hit 60 home runs. Very few do but Judge does.
Judge has 27 homers in 70 team games. Giancarlo Stanton had 18 homers through 70 team games in 2017, the year he hit 59 homers. Judge is well ahead of Stanton’s pace.
So much has to go right for it to happen. Judge has to stay healthy, the Yankees can’t rest him too much with their big AL East lead, other teams have to pitch to him, etc.
Even if he doesn’t get to 60 homers, the chase would be unbelievably fun. Yankee Stadium on its feet every Judge at-bat in September fun.

The fact we’re nearly halfway through the season and talking about Judge possibly hitting 60 homers and chasing down Maris is truly wild. That he’s doing this after rejecting that extension is even crazier. This is an all-time contract push and I’m enjoying the heck out of it. I really hope Judge gets to 60 homers, but even if he doesn’t, watching him try will be such a blast.

“He’s showing he’s motivated and he doesn’t need any extra motivation. I know this year he’s got plenty of it and every bit helps, but to do what he’s doing, it takes a mindset where you don’t need that added motivation,” Stanton told Dan Martin about Judge’s season. “It’s been amazing to watch. He’s playing on the next level from where everywhere else is playing. It’s entertaining watching the frustration of the best pitchers in the world trying to get this guy out.”

Rizzo’s walk

Pitch count data goes back to 1988 and Rizzo’s 16-pitch walk Thursday (video) is the longest plate appearance by a Yankee on record, beating out several 15-pitch at-bats (most recently by Brett Gardner in 2013). Framber Valdez is really, really good, but Rizzo essentially took an inning away from him. Without that walk, Valdez would have gone out for the seventh inning.

“That’s the most pitches I’ve ever thrown to a batter in an at-bat,” Valdez told Bill Ladson after the game. “He was able to win that battle there, but it definitely was taxing. That’s the reason why I was only able to throw six innings.”

Valdez had retired 14 straight batters prior to Rizzo’s walk, and while the Yankees didn't score in the inning, it forced the Astros to go to their bullpen an inning earlier than they would have otherwise. And while Houston’s bullpen is really good, all four relievers they used Thursday were pitching for the second straight day. The numbers don’t lie:

RP with 0 days rest: .250/.324/.405 (107 OPS+)
RP with 1 days rest: .236/.314/.379 (97 OPS+)
RP with 2 days rest: .227/.306/.357 (89 OPS+)

Thanks to Rizzo’s 16-pitch effort, the Yankees faced four relievers who were compromised to some degree by their recent workloads, and it helped them win the game. And it might help them win more games this weekend, because those four relievers (Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek) have pitched back-to-back days and need a breather. I don’t know how willing Dusty Baker is to use his relievers three straight days*, but they’re gonna be shorthanded in the bullpen at some point this weekend now.

* This feels like a big series, no doubt, but these two teams are 10+ games up in their divisions. Pushing one or more of your key relievers to pitch three straight days feels unnecessary. Also, Pressly has had knee trouble this year and they rarely use him back-to-back days. He’d done it only once in the last month prior to this week.

Calling Rizzo’s walk a turning point in the game might be overselling it, but it kinda was? It forced Valdez, who cruised after that first inning, out of the game earlier than the Astros probably would have liked, and it forced the Astros to use their four best relievers for the second straight day. That walk helped the Yankees win Thursday, and it might help them win a few more games this weekend. Championship level stuff by Rizzo.

“I don’t know how long Framber was going to go beyond that anyway. That, for sure, was going to put an end to his night in that inning at some point,” Boone told Ladson. “That was one of those at-bats where he gets the crowd energized, too. It was fun to watch him battle that at-bat.”

Nestor’s clunker and three bad days for the rotation

Isaac Paredes? Really? Come on guys. While facing the Rays for the second time in a week and the third time in four weeks, Nestor Cortes got hit hard Tuesday, surrendering four runs and three homers in 4.1 innings. Yeah, one of the homers was the Tropicana Field equivalent of a short porch job, but the Rays had several loud outs as well. Tampa was all over Nestor.

“I gave up a lot of hard contact, so I guess that was their game plan tonight,” Cortes told Bryan Hoch after the game. “I didn’t execute to where I wanted to execute. That was the biggest reason why you saw what happened today. If I executed better, it would have been a different story.”

Two things happened Tuesday. One, the Rays clearly were ready for that cutter in on the hands, Nestor’s bread and butter pitch to righties. Harold Ramirez’s short porch homer came on a cutter that was darting in on him …

… but he hit it like he was expecting it. Nestor allowed three homers on the cutter Tuesday after allowing three homers on the cutter in his first 12 starts combined. And two, Cortes was in the middle of the plate too often. The Rays were ready for the cutter, sure, but you don’t have to be sitting on a specific pitch when a guy is leaving this many pitches middle-middle:

“He was just missing locations, maybe pulling the ball a little bit,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “Just not quite as sharp as we’re accustomed to.”

Cortes was due for some home run regression and it’s here. He had a 0.60 HR/9 (6.6 HR/FB%) through 10 starts and it’s now a more normal 1.09 HR/9 (9.6 HR/FB%) through 13 starts. Also, Nestor was pulled at 63 pitches and for some reason there was talk about the quick hook being part of the team’s efforts to control his workload (74 innings now, career high is 115).

Maybe the workload was part of it, but wasn’t it just Boone pulling a struggling starter and not letting him face a hitter who’d already taken him deep twice a third time? Seems to me Boone didn’t want Cortes facing Paredes again more than he wanted to limit his innings (Paredes went deep again anyway). I think it was a Cortes vs. Paredes decision, not Cortes vs. his workload.

“Maybe (the workload) comes into play a little bit today, where he’s struggling to find it a little bit,” Boone told Hoch. “I’m not just going to push him through to navigate a heavy outing like that. I think Nestor’s in a good place where we’re certainly mindful of it, but at the same time, he’s going out and doing what he does. He’s going to routinely get us through those middle innings.”

Like a few other things with the Yankees (Judge’s homer pace, Clay Holmes’ scoreless streak, the winning pace, etc.), Nestor’s performance is probably too good to continue. That doesn’t mean he’s not good! I just mean he’s not that good. I love the guy, but Cortes was never going to keep up a sub-2.00 ERA and 0.60 HR/9. That the regression didn’t come until June is pretty cool.

The starting pitcher has had his worst start of the season three straight nights (Cortes on Tuesday, Jordan Montgomery on Wednesday, Jameson Taillon on Thursday). It’s that Twins series all over again, except spanning two different series. I didn’t expect the Yankees to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA all year (no American League team has done that since the 1981 Yankees) but man, the return to Earth is not fun. That the Yankees are winning anyway makes it easier to swallow. This team picks each other up well.

Cortes has had two bad starts in his last three and maybe the other shoe is dropping, but he did sandwich a really good start between them. I’m not ready to say the clock has struck midnight. Nestor will need to string a few clunkers together before I worry. If anything, call this a yellow flag, though I wouldn’t even go that far yet. It’s his first rough patch since pre-2021. It happens.

Miscellany

Why did the Astros pitch to Judge once Stanek fell behind in the count 3-0? I get facing Rizzo with the bases loaded is no picnic, but Judge had extreme count leverage and is hitting .341/.474/.715 (229 wRC+) when ahead in the count this year. Stanek didn’t even miss his spot:

Rizzo’s good, and he’s been really good lately, but he’s no Judge. I would have walked him after falling behind 3-0, or at least tried to get him to chase something out of the zone. Stanek just kinda laid a splitter in there. Whatever. Thanks, Astros ... A catcher started back-to-back days! Jose Trevino started Wednesday and Thursday. Not counting Kyle Higashioka’s three-day stint on the COVID list, it’s the first time a catcher started back-to-back days since May 15th and 16th. Can’t argue Trevino hasn’t earned it. He had the go-ahead homer Wednesday and then contributed to the ninth inning rally Thursday. A catcher starting back-to-back days. What a concept … As of Wednesday, 223 players had at least 400 plate appearances last season and have at least 200 plate appearances this season. Among those 223 players, here are the largest increases in barrel rate since last year:

1. Christian Walker: +9.9%
2. Jazz Chisholm: +8.1%
3. Aaron Judge: +8.0%
4. Giancarlo Stanton: +7.5%
5. Pavin Smith: +7.2%
…
10. Anthony Rizzo: +3.8%
11. Gleyber Torres: +3.7%
…
18. DJ LeMahieu: +2.5%

David Peralta is sixth on that list (+5.1%), so the Diamondbacks have three of the top six. That’s mildly interesting. The Yankees have four of the top 11 though, and five of the top 18. Is this the new hitting coaches and the “hit strikes hard” philosophy at work? We are well beyond the point where contact quality stats stabilize. These are real improvements, not sample size flukes. Not really sure what to make of this, but half the lineup showing considerable improvement in their ability to produce the best possible contact seems noteworthy … An update on Stanton’s playing time: 27 starts in the outfield and 27 starts at DH. He started 26 of the final 60 games in the outfield last season and the 50/50-ish split has continued this year. Giancarlo had an ugly game in Target Field a few weeks back but has generally been solid in right field. And how about those throws Wednesday? The guy just casually broke out a 70 arm. I’m very pleased with Stanton’s outfield play, both the quality and quantity.

3. Trevino and the All-Star Game. Earlier this week MLB announced the first All-Star Game fan voting update and, surprise surprise, Aaron Judge leads all players in votes. There are two phases to the voting. The top three at each position (top six outfielders) in Phase 1 advance to Phase 2, and the winner of Phase 2 starts the All-Star Game. The leading vote-getter in each league (Judge and Mookie Betts, currently) skips Phase 2 and is given an automatic starting spot.

Here’s the full voting update. Judge is the only Yankee currently in line to start, though Giancarlo Stanton (as an outfielder!) and Jose Trevino – Jose Trevino! – are in position to advance to Phase 2. Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres are within striking distance of the top three at their positions. But yes, Trevino is the second leading vote-getter at catcher:

Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays: 1,057,008
Jose Trevino, Yankees: 387,983
Salvador Perez, Royals: 266,604
Martin Maldonado, Astros: 231,005
Christian Vazquez, Red Sox: 199,010

“Without a doubt. What he’s doing this year is special,” Judge told Brendan Kuty about Trevino following his game-winning homer in Tampa (video). “I think he’s going to continue to do that for quite a few years. I think he so far deserves the right to be in LA this year to represent the Yankees and represent the American League.”

Perez has started four of the last six All-Star Games and I kinda assumed he’d get voted in again this year, but he’s having a poor season (.211/.254/.426 and 88 wRC+) and apparently Royals fans are so beaten down by the team’s crushing mediocrity that they can’t muster the energy to vote. He might get to Phase 2, but at this point, I think Perez starting would be a surprise.

Blue Jays fans are stuffing the ballot and a) it’s fan voting for an All-Star Game that doesn’t count for anything, so who cares? stuff away, and b) Kirk absolutely deserves it. The guy’s hitting .307/.395/.487 (150 wRC+) with more walks (12.3%) than strikeouts (10.0%). Kirk deserves to start and Trevino deserves to be the runner-up. Here are Trevino’s ranks among the 25 American League catchers with at least 100 plate appearances:

AVG: .282 (second to Kirk)
OBP: .336 (second to Kirk)
SLG: .470 (second to Kirk)
wRC+: 131 (second to Kirk)
WAR: +1.9 (second to Kirk at +2.5 WAR)

We could bring defense into this, but FanGraphs WAR already includes pitch framing, and it’s an All-Star Game. I’m not watching for pitch framing. The one defensive number that might matter is innings caught. Trevino is tenth in the AL with 322 innings, well behind the leader (Sean Murphy at 454.1 innings). The 50/50 catcher split is still alive and well. Trevino’s a half-time player.

Kirk, however, is 14th with 302.1 innings. Vazquez (426.1 innings) and Maldonado (419 innings) are second and third innings caught, respectively. Perez is 12th (309 innings) because he spent some time on the injured list. The innings caught leaderboard is Murphy, Vazquez, and Maldonado at the top, then a bunch of guys all scrunched close together.

I think that, if the offensive numbers are close, innings caught is a good tiebreaker to decide who goes to the All-Star Game and who stays home. The offensive numbers are not close though. Kirk has a 150 wRC+, Trevino has a 131 wRC+, and Jonah Heim is third with a 124 wRC+. Only four other catchers have at least a 100 wRC+. There are some pretty big gaps there.

Even while catching relatively few innings, I think it’s pretty clear Kirk has been the best catcher in the league this year, and Trevino has been the second best. They should go to the All-Star Game, and the third spot will come down to Heim, Murphy, and Vazquez (Paul Blackburn will probably be the token Athletic, so Murphy might get left out). Trevino being an All-Star was a fun little joke a few weeks ago. Now it should be a reality. He deserves it.

“I know there’s a lot of great catchers out there in the league,” Judge told Kuty. “Especially when we got done facing Alejandro Kirk with the Blue Jays, another great one in this league. But I think (Trevino) definitely deserves it. He’s worked his butt off for this opportunity and he’s taking full advantage of it.”

4. Injury updates. The Yankees were in Tampa earlier this week, which means we got a bunch of updates on injured Yankees rehabbing at the minor league complex. Let’s run them all down.

Chapman to begin rehab assignment

Aroldis Chapman will begin a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset this weekend. He threw live batting practice in Tampa this week and his Achilles passed every test. The Yankees haven’t announced any plans, but two rehab outings would allow Chapman to rejoin the Yankees when they head out on their four-city, 10-game road trip next Thursday.

“I am here trying to recover, come back, be well, healthy, and help the team in any way, in any role,” Chapman told Dan Martin earlier this week. “(Clay Holmes) is doing an excellent job right now and I think he deserves the role that he has. I’m past that point in my career in which I would fight for a role, for the closer role.”

I will say it again: I’d love Chapman to come back and dominate, and resume closing so Holmes can be used in a fireman role earlier in the game. Chapman has to first show he can be effective, of course, and I don’t think Aaron Boone will throw him right into high leverage work. He’ll have to prove himself. Regardless of role, an effective Chapman makes the Yankees better.

German begins rehab assignment

Domingo German started his minor league rehab assignment Wednesday night. His line with Low-A Tampa: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 5 GB, 3 FB. He threw 27 of his 39 pitches for strikes (69%), but got only four misses on 21 swings (18%). The game was in Tampa, so we have Statcast data. The details on German’s stuff:

Fastball: 91.7 mph average (92.5 mph max) and 2,490 rpm
Curveball: 79.0 mph average (80.7 mph max) and 2,614 rpm
Changeup: 85.3 mph average (86.4 mph max) and 2,206 rpm

The spin is in German’s normal range but across the board his average velocity was down about 2 mph from last season. That’s to be expected because he’s still building arm strength, but if something pops up and the Yankees need an arm, German’s probably not a good option while sitting low-90s. I mean, 10 batters faced – 10 Low-A batters faced – and no strikeouts?

The rehab start begins German’s 30-day rehab clock, so he must be activated by July 20th (they could always activate him sooner). The Yankees are building him up as a starter and that’s the smart move. Luis Gil is done for the season and it’s easier to stretch German out now than later. Easier to go from starter to reliever than reliever to starter, you know?

German has been up and down as a Yankee and he’s extremely home run prone (1.71 HR/9 and 16.3 HR/FB% since 2018), but his stuff has always been lively, and there could be a role for him once his 30 days are up. And if not, German does have a minor league option remaining, so the Yankees can stash him in Triple-A. At least now he’s healthy. German still has to build arm strength, and fortunately the Yankees are in a position where they don’t need to rush him.

Britton progressing with Tommy John surgery rehab

Earlier this month Zack Britton threw off a mound for the first time as part of his Tommy John surgery rehab, and all must be going well, because he’s still throwing bullpen sessions. He threw indoors a few days ago and Erik Boland says his velocity was in the upper-80s. That is normal. Britton is only nine months out from surgery and has a lot of arm strength to build.

“The way the team’s playing, I want to be ready to go and be in a position where I can help the team in the playoffs,” Britton told Pete Caldera. “I know I'm going to get back at some point (this year). I feel really confident in that. I don't want to be back and not be a solid contributor. I don't want to be anything other than what I've been. That's my main focus and hopefully I can get a World Series ring out of it. That would make all of this well worth it.”

It kinda snuck up on me how deep we are into the season. July is right around the corner, so if Britton wants to make it back by September, he’s only got two months to get game ready. Maybe two and a half if the Yankees bring him back in mid September, at which point he’ll only have a handful of innings to prove he’s postseason roster worthy. It’s a lot to ask, but at least Britton is making progress. So far, so good.

Loaisiga could throw bullpen session this weekend

It has been a month since Jonathan Loaisiga was placed on the injured list with a shoulder issue and he could throw off a mound Friday or Saturday, according to Meredith Marakovits. Loaisiga has been playing catch at 120 feet – he’s throwing changeups as well – and as long as he feels good, he’ll throw in the bullpen for the first time this weekend.

Loaisiga had to hit pause on his throwing program last week and return home to Nicaragua for a few days to attend to a family matter. The best case scenario is something like a week of bullpen sessions, then a few minor league rehab games. That might take Loaisiga right up to the All-Star break. The Yankees have this huge lead and Loaisiga has a long injury history. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them bring him along slowly just to be extra cautious. They can afford to do that now.

Wells resumes catching

Austin Wells, my No. 8 prospect, has been on High-A Hudson Valley’s injured list since taking a foul tip to the groin on May 17th. He has not yet rejoined the Renegades, but he has resumed catching. Wells was behind the plate for Chapman’s live batting practice session earlier this week. No word on when he’ll be activated, though it looks like it’ll be fairly soon.

I should note Anthony Seigler, who was promoted to High-A when Wells got hurt, is still tearing the cover off the ball. He’s hitting .308/.460/.538 (170 wRC+) with the Renegades and .270/.441/.482 (163 wRC+) overall. Seigler has seven homers (he had five from 2018-20) and his 5.7% swinging strike rate is a top 20 mark in the minors. Looks like Seigler’s long-awaited breakout (health and performance) has arrived.

There’s no chance Seigler will go back to Low-A Tampa to make room for Wells, and while they could share catcher and DH time with the Renegades, I think the Yankees will send Wells to Double-A Somerset. He’s hitting .323/.429/.576 (169 wRC+) this year and has a .294/.398/.514 (146 wRC+) line over 300 plate appearances with Hudson Valley dating back to last year. We’ll see, but I think Wells is Double-A bound once he’s ready to go.

Deivi returns to the mound

Deivi Garcia, who exited his May 26th start with numbness in his fingers, was back on a mound earlier this week. Here he is throwing live batting practice. The Yankees never did give an official diagnosis, but numbness in the fingers is scary stuff. It’s a common symptom of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which has ruined countless careers throughout baseball history.

Garcia was having another disaster season with Triple-A Scranton before getting hurt: 10.38 ERA (7.71 FIP) with 18 strikeouts and 16 walks in 21.2 innings. It sounds like this stint on the injured list is as much a chance to work on things mechanically as it is to get over whatever caused the numbness in his fingers. The Yankees are still trying to salvage Deivi.

“They just wanted to pull him out and let him get a little bit of a reset physically,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Brendan Kuty. “Seems like he’s in an okay spot mentally and physically, but I do think they’re just trying to rework where they’re at with him because he had been struggling a little bit.”

Garcia won’t be able to turn things around without first getting healthy, so it’s good to know he’s okay physically. It’s entirely possible Deivi is a lost cause at this point. It would suck, but it’s possible. Now that he’s back on a mound though, he can work toward getting his career on track. I’m glad the numbness in his fingers was apparently nothing major.

5. Abreu returns. Maybe Robby Ahlstrom will go on to win a couple Cy Youngs, but I think we can safely say the Yankees won the Jose Trevino trade. Less than three months after trading Albert Abreu for Trevino, the Yankees claimed him off waivers earlier this week, and put him in their bullpen. Trading Abreu for Trevino, then claiming Abreu on waivers, is the kinda move that gets made in the MLB The Show. It’s not supposed to happen in real life, and yet there was Trevino catching Abreu on Thursday night.

“I think we saw him really take a huge step for us last year,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty. “Pitched really well for us last year. Pitched in meaningful games for us down the stretch last year in some meaningful situations and could handle those. Hopefully, we can get that guy back and get him going and make sure he’s a contributor to what we’re doing.”

The Yankees did not claim Abreu from the Rangers. Texas designated him for assignment a few weeks ago and traded him to the Royals for a fringe minor leaguer, then Kansas City designated him for assignment last week. In 13 innings with the Rangers and Royals, Abreu allowed five runs with more walks (16) than strikeouts (13). Did have a 58.8% ground ball rate though.

“I haven’t seen a lot. I know he’s walked a lot of guys so far this year,” Boone told Kuty. “So we’ve got to make sure we get him back in line with that.”

The Yankees are all about power sinkers and Abreu has one. He switched to the sinker after a particularly brutal outing in Tampa last season, and he’s sat 98 mph and touched 100 mph with it this year. Abreu reported to Spring Training late because of a visa issue and I suppose that (and the lockout) could explain his control issues, though he’s always walked a ton of guys. Here’s what I wrote before the season, when I ranked Abreu the No. 26 prospect in the system:

The single biggest difference between Abreu and other hard-throwing relief types in the system is we’ve seen Abreu fail, which clouds our opinion. There were times last year where Abreu appeared to be working his way into the Circle of Trust™, which I guess is encouraging. I think he’s destined to be one of those guys who is always on the periphery of the Circle of Trust™ without ever actually being in it. Pitchers with Abreu’s arm tend to keep getting chances. There’s big league value to be had here even if it won’t be with the Yankees.

I’m tempted to say maybe there’s something the Yankees can tweak to help Abreu step up his game the way they did Clay Holmes, but they’ve had him for a few years now, so if they were going to do such a thing, it probably would have happened already. Who knows though. Maybe they just now spotted something and want to try it? The guy was free on waivers. It’s no risk.

David McKay was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Abreu (and was then traded back to the Rays for cash, completing the circle) and Clarke Schmidt was sent to Triple-A to clear a 26-man roster spot. The writing was on the wall when Schmidt pitched Tuesday and Wednesday, the first time he’s ever pitched back-to-back days. He was not going to be available for a few days after that. Now he’s in Scranton.

Schmidt is objectively better than Abreu. The Yankees and Boone have also struggled to find consistent work or anything resembling a defined role for Schmidt. This is the kinda move that weakens the last or second-to-last bullpen spot, and thus weakens the Yankees, but also improves the organization in the grand scheme of things because now Schmidt can go get regular work in Triple-A, and even stretch out to be a rotation option for later this season.

Unless he dominates right away, Abreu probably won’t be on the roster all that long seeing how Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Loaisiga (and Domingo German) are on the mend. This might be temporary. Very temporary considering Chapman could be back within a week. No one will miss McKay, and if Abreu is gone when Chapman returns, this allows the Yankees to start Schmidt’s Triple-A work a few days earlier. Not the worst thing in the world.

If the Yankees weren’t 52-18 with a 12.5-game lead in the AL East (and a 12.5-game lead on a first round bye), I wouldn’t like this move at all. But they do have that great record, so they’ve earned the right to play around a bit with the back of their bullpen, and take a more big picture approach with Schmidt. McKay had no future with the Yankees. Abreu might, even if the chance is small. If Abreu sticks on the roster more than a few days or weeks, it will mean he’s pitching well. The chances he sticks around while pitching poorly are very small.

(Ahlstrom, the second player the Yankees sent to Texas in the Trevino trade, has a 3.95 ERA (3.36 FIP) with 27.0% strikeouts and 6.0% walks in 41 innings split between the two Single-A levels this year. Eric Longenhagen had Ahlstrom outside his Rangers’ top 50 prospects earlier this month.)

6. 2022 draft prospect: UConn LHP Reggie Crawford. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Like so many other top college pitchers in this draft class, Crawford had Tommy John surgery and missed the season. Unlike so many of those other Tommy John surgery guys, Crawford has very little track record on the mound. He was a two-way player with the Huskies and hit .309/.362/.546 with 14 homers in 64 games as a first baseman, though his future lies on the mound.

Crawford has not pitched much in recent years and threw only eight innings at UConn. Add in his time in the Cape Cod League, and he’s thrown 16.1 innings since 2020, but in those 16.1 innings he a) struck out nearly half the batters he faced, and b) showed a tantalizing arm that had him in the first round mix before elbow reconstruction. Here are Crawford’s draft rankings:

Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 57
FanGraphs: No. 62
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 83
MLB.com: No. 76

Crawford had his Tommy John surgery in late October/early November and earlier this month he told David Borges “My arm feels great … I’m super-happy with how my rehab’s going, how I’m progressing,” so that’s good. Crawford was at the draft combine last week, but as far as I know he was only there for medical and physical evaluations, and didn’t throw for scouts.

There’s not much video of Crawford on the mound, so here’s the best we have. Now here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

While with Team USA and during a quick stop in the Cape Cod League, his fastball averaged a tick over 97 mph and touched 100, showing an ability to throw it for a strike. In his brief mound time at UConn, he hadn’t thrown much more than the heater, but he did show off a plus 84-85 mph slider that he also landed in the strike zone and missed bats with over the summer.

That’s really all we have. FanGraphs adds his “fastball has incredible tailing action,” and that’s about it. Crawford is a 6-foot-4, 235 lb. lefty with upper-90s velocity and signs of a good slider, and basically no performance track record. He is a mystery, but a mystery with big velocity from the left side, and hard-throwing lefties never seem to run out of chances.

Injured pitchers get drafted high all the time, though rarely do they have as little track record as Crawford. The best recent example is LSU righty Jaden Hill, a potential first round pick last year who slipped to the No. 44 pick because of Tommy John surgery. He threw 51.1 innings in college around injuries in the pandemic, which isn’t much, but is a lot more than Crawford.

(It should also be noted the Rockies drafted Hill and they had an extra Competitive Balance pick, allowing them to roll the dice on an upside arm. The Yankees have no extra picks.)

I’ve neither seen nor heard anything indicating Crawford will be a first round pick. There are other talented Tommy John surgery pitchers who are much more known quantities. The Yankees using the No. 25 pick on Crawford would be aggressive and probably part of some kinda bonus pool manipulating underslot deal (like Clarke Schmidt to save money for Matt Sauer).

More likely, Crawford would be in the mix for the Yankees with their second round pick, No. 61 overall. He seems like the perfect ‘tweener prospect. A kid who wouldn’t be the wisest pick at No. 25 but will probably be off the board by time No. 61 comes around. I could see the Yankees jumping on Crawford with that No. 61 pick. No. 25 would really be pushing it, I think.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Robbie asks: Do you think Oswald Peraza's slow start is because he had no team coaching during the lock out as he's on the 40 man roster?

Yeah, that’s possible, especially since he’s a developing prospect in need of instruction. But we’re also nearly three months into the season, right? At some point the lockout/weird Spring Training excuse expires and I think we’re there. Peraza has over 200 regular season plate appearances under his belt. I don’t think this qualifies as a “slow start” anymore.

Peraza is in the middle of his best stretch of the season – he is 11-for-26 (.423) with three extra-base hits and two strikeouts in his last six games – but, before these six games, he was hitting .192/.267/.316 (57 wRC+), and that’s a great big yikes. The strikeout (23.3%) and swinging strike (14.3%) rates aren’t awful, but a few of these year-to-year trends aren’t great:

Ground ball rate: 42.1% in 2021 to 41.8% in 2022
Pull rate: 45.2% to 51.7%
HR/FB: 15.1% to 11.7%

He’s not hitting more ground balls, but he is pulling the ball more, yet his power has slipped a bit. That’s a bit weird. Pull the ball more and your power should go up. I worry we’re getting too deep in the weeds here by slicing and dicing minor league batted ball data. Bottom line, Peraza has not had a good year. Certainly not the kinda year that puts him in the call up conversation.

Peraza’s developmental priority is recognizing and laying off breaking balls. He can punish a heater but tends to get flummoxed by anything with spin, and improvement in that area is not something you can see in a box score. Peraza turned 22 last week and he is hardly the first player to stumble in his first extended taste of Triple-A. Maybe we can blame it on the lockout and weird Spring Training. I think it’s more likely his issues with spin are getting exposed.

Ari asks: I saw a stat last week that essentially noted that the Yankee starting staff, combined, is basically putting up the same stats as Robbie Ray put up last year when he won the Cy Young. For the sake of argument, assuming the staff keeps this pace up, where would it rank in Yankee history?

Going into last night’s game Yankees starters had a 2.88 ERA (3.37 FIP) with 25.6% strikeouts and 5.5% walks in 384.1 innings. Last season Ray had a 2.84 ERA (3.69 FIP) with 32.1% strikeouts and 6.7% walks, so yeah, it’s close, though Ray had a big edge in strikeouts. (Yankees starters have only walked 5.5% of the batters they’ve faced this year? Wild.)

We have to use era adjusted stats to compare rotations throughout history. Let’s go through the notable pitching statistics, shall we? These are starting rotations only:

ERA-
1. 1939: 73
2. 2022: 75
3. 1942: 79
4. 1957: 80
5. 1937: 81

ERA- works the same way as ERA+, just reversed. So a 90 ERA- is the same thing as a 110 ERA+. They both mean your ERA is 10% better than average once adjusted for ballpark, the league offensive environment, and all that other stuff.

Anyway, this is basically the best rotation in Yankees history in terms of ERA relative to the rest of the league. These adjustments aren’t precise enough to think there’s a significant difference between a 73 ERA- and a 75 ERA-. The next best Yankees rotation of this century is a 90 ERA- by the 2002 and 2003 teams. 2022 is lapping the field.

FIP-
1. 2002: 80
2. 2022: 82
3. 2002: 83
4. 2018: 89
5. 1981: 89

All the best FIP seasons, both for the Yankees and league-wide, are recent because strikeouts have exploded the last 10-15 years. And again, this is basically the best rotation in team history in terms of FIP relative to the rest of the league. The difference between an 80 FIP- and an 82 FIP- is not something that is meaningful.

K%+
1. 1932: 158
2. 1933: 158
3. 1935: 136
4. 1931: 132
5. 1950: 131

This is where the difference in eras really shows. Yankees starters have a 25.6% strikeout rate in 2022, which is the highest in franchise history. But relative to the league average (22.2%), it’s only the 18th best in team history (116 K%+). That 1932 team had a 12.7% strikeout rate at a time when the MLB average was 8.2%. Could you imagine an 8.2% strikeout rate league-wide?

The seven highest strikeout rates in Yankees history have come in the last seven years and they are basically in order. 2022 is the highest ever, 2021 is the second highest ever, 2020 is the third highest ever, etc. That is not really unique to the Yankees or MLB in general. Strikeout rate records are being set every year and have been since the mid-2000s. It is what it is.

K/BB+
1. 2003: 182
2. 2022: 173
3. 2020: 163
4. 1932: 161
5. 2002: 160

Again, most of these are recent because of the explosion in strikeouts. That 1932 team had a 1.39 K/BB while the MLB average was 1.04. The American League as a whole had more walks (4,408) than strikeouts (4,021) in 1932. Pretty crazy. That 2003 rotation has a nice lead over the 2022 rotation here, but still, ranking second all-time is pretty incredible.

The season is not even three months old yet, so any talk about a historically great rotation is a bit premature. Still, the rotation has been excellent, and this puts into perspective just how excellent. The season is young but not so young that thinking this could be one of the 10 best rotations in Yankees history is not crazy. We’ll have to revisit this question in a few weeks.

Emiliano asks: This might sound as I'm complaining about Judge but I'm not, I'm just curious. He has 25 HR but "just" 49 RBIs. How many runs has he battled in on non-homers. And what's happening when he has runners in scoring position but don't hit a HR. There's something here or I'm just missing something?

Going into Thursday’s game Aaron Judge had 27 home runs and 52 RBI. He’s hit an inordinate number of solo homers: 21 of his 27 home runs have been solo shots, or 78%. The MLB average is 55%. Yordan Alvarez and Mike Trout are the only other players with as many as 21 homers period. Judge has more solo homers than the vast majority of the league has total homers.

The thing is, Judge is hitting well with men on base. He’s just not hitting homers with runners on. Here are his numbers going into Thursday’s game:

Bases empty: .311/.378/.711 (223 wRC+)
Men on base: .290/.380/.505 (141 wRC+)
Runners in scoring position: .286/.405/.500 (137 wRC+)

Judge has performed better with the bases empty than with men on, but a) the big difference is power, not so much batting average, and b) Judge has been really good with men on! Just not as otherworldly as with the bases empty.

Judge has batted with 186 runners on base this season, tied for 24th most in baseball, and he’s driven in 25. That 13.4% rate is below the 14.4% league average. Among regulars, Jose Ramirez has driven in by far the highest rate of baserunners: 48 of 186, or 25.8%. Paul Goldschmidt is up there too (44 of 178, or 24.7%). Joey Gallo is at 6.9% (9 of 131). That’s fourth worst among the 219 players to bat with at least 100 runners on base.

(This stat also lacks context. A runner on first with two outs and a runner at third with no outs counts as the same one baserunner, though they’re obviously very different situations, and your chances of driving in that runner aren't nearly the same.)

Percent of runners driven in is one of those rates that bounces around from year to year. Judge was at 15.5% last year, 17.7% the year before, 11.2% the year before that, etc. His career average is exactly the MLB average: 14.4%. Ramirez is at 25.8% this year, but it was 17.6% last year. His career rate is better than league average at 16.7%. This year is a bit extreme.

I can already tell RBI and RBI rate will be a big talking point when it’s time to discuss the MVP*. Ramirez has been phenomenal and would not be an egregious winner, and the “one guy took a hometown discount and the other bet on himself” storyline will be kinda fun. Judge is hitting well with men on base overall, though the vast majority of his homers have come with the bases empty. A few more two and three-run shots will do wonders for his RBI total. (Or just hit 60 homers and lock up MVP that way.)

* Something tells me the Yankees running away with the division while the Guardians fight for their postseason lives will also work in Ramirez’s favor even though that logic was nowhere to be found when Jose Altuve’s Astros won the division by 21 games and Judge’s Yankees snuck into the postseason in 2017. Why yes, I am still salty.

Gary asks: If you had a crystal ball, what are the chances the Yankees 1) re-sign Judge and Taillon when they file for free agency, 2) Rizzo opts out, 3) Yankees re-sign Rizzo if he opts out, 4) Yankees pick up Severino’s option. I know it’s way too early for any of this, but wanted your opinions just the same.

Let’s take these one by one.

1) I’ll go 95% for Aaron Judge and 25% for Jameson Taillon. I think the Yankees will re-sign Judge to a monster long-term deal at some point*, but I can’t go to 100% just because you never really know. Once he hits free agency, everything changes, and it only takes one desperate owner or GM to throw a wrench into everything (like the Mariners and Robbie Cano).

* For what it’s worth, Alex Speier (subs. req’d) did the research and found that of the 57 players to sign a $100M free agent contract since Kevin Brown became the first $100M player, only six re-signed with their team. Free agents don’t sign the average projected contract. They usually sign the outlier contract that is above the other offers.

As for Taillon, he’s been great and I hope the Yankees re-sign him, but they have to prioritize Judge (and if they don’t re-sign Judge, they should probably sign Carlos Correa to replace the lost offense), and I’m not sure they want to add another big money deal on top of Judge and everyone else. Nathan Eovaldi’s four-year, $68M contract ($17M per year) is the standard for two-time Tommy John surgery guys, and I assume Taillon’s asking price starts there.

Will the Yankees really tack a Taillon extension on top of a Judge extension, Gerrit Cole’s and Giancarlo Stanton’s big contracts, and DJ LeMahieu’s and Aaron Hicks’ smaller but still pricey contracts? Give Judge $35M a year and Taillon $17M a year, and that’s $135M a year for six players through 2025 (and into their mid-30s). I fear Taillon will be a payroll crunch casualty.

2) If Anthony Rizzo opts out after the season, he’d walk away from $16M, and I think he has a good chance to beat that in free agency. Maybe not per year, but total. Could he get something like three years and $42M? I think Rizzo is planning to opt out and will beat the $16M he has coming to him, though probably across multiple years with a lower average annual salary.

3) Rizzo strikes me as exactly the type of player the Yankees will sign to an extension to prevent him from using his opt out. They did that with CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman back in the day. Rizzo seems to love being a Yankee and I don’t think he wants to leave, but it’s a business, and leveraging the opt out into an extension feels very possible. He wanted the opt out for a reason. Would tacking another year and $16M on top of the $16M for 2023 get it done? If Rizzo does opt out, I’ll say the chances the Yankees re-sign him are 5%. I think they’d put their best offer on the table in the form of an extension before he even opts out.

4) Picking up Luis Severino’s $15M club option is a no-brainer. If gets hurt again, then yeah, things change, but based on what we know right now, pick that sucker up. Severino has been very good this season, oftentimes dominant, and $15M for one year is more than reasonable. If the Yankees know they’re not going to re-sign Taillon, then picking up Severino’s option is an even easier call.

Adam asks: I remember not too long ago the Yankees used to rarely get day games on travel days. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year. Was this something that was negotiated recently? PS, I love weekday day games. Watching a 1 o’clock game while working from home in sweat pants is the bomb.

As someone who hasn’t had a traditional office job in almost 15 years, yes, day baseball rules. Even if it’s not the Yankees, just having baseball on as background noise throughout the day is great. Afternoon Mets games are my favorite because they have an incredible booth and I don’t have to give the game my undivided attention. The Mets make for amazing day baseball.

Anyway, the MLBPA pushed for more off-days and more getaway days as part of the previous (2017-21) Collective Bargaining Agreement. They added four off-days to the schedule in 2018 and there are all sorts of getaway day rules now. You need one when either team has a flight of at least 2.5 hours after the game, when they’re changing time zones, all sorts of stuff.

The Yankees have been affected more than most teams because they’re the Yankees, and networks want them in prime time as often as possible. They have more getaway days now than in the past. I’m not complaining, I love day baseball, though I understand there’s a lot of people at work who can’t watch a 1pm ET game. I’ve been there. It stinks.

Jack asks: Matt Blake has got to be the hottest, most buzzed about coach in baseball right now. What he's done with this pitching staff is remarkable. So this begs the questions: How long is he under contract? Do we know if he has ambitions other than being a pitching coach (ie, could he be lured away to manage, like John Farrell back in the day)? This seems like one of the few areas left where the Yankees can actually flex some financial might without being penalized - overpaying for top tier coaching! We gotta keep this guy in pinstripes for as long as possible.

We don’t know much about Blake, do we? He turned 37 in May and is apparently the youngest pitching coach in MLB history (or was at the time he was hired). Coach contracts are rarely reported, especially with relatively unknowns like Blake, but a three-year term would mean his contract is up after this season. Three years plus an option means the Yankees can keep him next year.

The history of pitching coaches turned managers isn’t great. The best recent success story is Bud Black, who was the Angels pitching coach from 2000-06 before getting his first managerial job. John Farrell won a World Series as manager but was pretty blah overall. Bryce Price flopped as a manager. Larry Rothschild too, though the expansion Devil Rays wasn’t a great situation.

If Blake wants to manage one day, a) we haven’t heard about it, and b) there’s probably nothing the Yankees can do to stop him from leaving. They can offer him a boatload of money, but even they have their limits, and it’s not like “MLB manager” pays poorly. There are only 30 manager jobs in the world. If one becomes available and Blake wants it, he’ll take it.

Coaching staff salaries do not count against the luxury tax, so yes, the Yankees can and should use their financial might here. And they deserve credit for going against the grain and building an unconventional staff. Blake is a player development guy who never even did a mound visit until he got to the big leagues. Hitting coach Dillon Lawson is a stathead who didn’t play professionally (neither did Blake). The Yankees went out on a limb and it’s worked wonderfully.

(Also, I just want to make sure we give everyone proper credit for the state of the pitching staff. Blake is the MLB pitching coach but it’s not just him. When the Yankees hired Blake, they also hired Sam Briend away from Driveline Baseball and Desi Druschel away from the University of Iowa to run their pitcher development. Druschel is now Blake’s assistant on the big league staff and Briend runs the show in the minors. Those two plus Blake, the minor league coaches, and an army of anonymous front office analysts are responsible for this staff. They all deserve credit.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)