RAB Thoughts

June 17th, 2022: Pitching, Holmes, Cole, Pirates, Mailbag

Added 2022-06-17 12:00:07 +0000 UTC

The Yankees are 47-16 (this is tied for the third fourth best 63-game start in franchise history) and they have a 10-game lead in the AL East. The Mets have the second best record in baseball (42-23) and they’re six games behind the Yankees. The Mets are closer to having the tenth best record than the first best record. Still a lot – A LOT – of season to be played, but the Yankees are lapping the field right now. How fun. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. The 2022 Yankees are an amalgamation of all the championship teams of my lifetime. They have the spunkiness of 1996, the winning pace of 1998, the find-a-way-ability of 1999, and they’re racking up walk-off wins like 2009. Thursday was already their eighth walk-off win of the year. No other team has more than five. Imagine rooting for a team that isn’t 31 games over .500 on June 17th? Couldn’t be me. Now for a few thoughts on the last few games.

Sevy’s sick and a pitching clinic

The good news: Luis Severino doesn’t have COVID and he traveled with the Yankees to Toronto. I don’t know when he’ll make his next start, though I wonder if the Yankees will use this as an opportunity to skip a start, and control Severino’s workload. The other good news: Clarke Schmidt & Co. did a pretty mean Severino impression. Look at this masterpiece:

Ryan Weber, who was called up to replace Severino, allowed 13 runs in 9.2 innings with three teams in 2021, and he came into this year with a career 5.28 ERA. Getting 3.2 innings of one-run ball out of him is serious Yankees pitching voodoo. With the way things are going this year, the Yankees could probably pull someone out of the bleachers and get him through the lineup once.

“It says a lot. It says a lot about what our clubhouse is about. Guys coming in and feeling right away that they’re a part of this thing,” Anthony Rizzo told Max Goodman after the win. “... Weber coming up, coming in, throwing (3.2 innings). You just don’t account for that. There’s going to be moves made … It’s going to take all 26 guys. It’s going to take probably 40+ guys on the roster throughout the year and that’s our job, the guys who are here all the time when the guys do come in, to make them feel comfortable as fast and quick as possible.”

Schmidt’s “hey, don’t forget about me, I can start too” audition went extremely well, and Ron Marinaccio is low-key becoming a dude. Since rejoining the Yankees last month: 8.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 12 K. A few too many walks, but he’s a rookie and that’s what rookie pitchers do. They walk people. Marinaccio is taking advantage of the opportunity created by the bullpen injuries.

The offense did not have a good series against Tampa. The Yankees scored two unearned runs Tuesday and six runs combined Wednesday and Thursday, including three on one swing. That’s all. But the pitching staff stood tall again. They allowed four runs in the series and have allowed no more than one run eight times in 14 games in June. Eight times in 14 games! That is insane.

Every pitcher to appear in Thursday’s game has spent time in Triple-A this year except Mike King. Schmidt and Marinaccio are talented, though they’re down the depth chart a bit, and Weber is even further down below them. Yet the Yankees didn’t just cobble together a respectable game from them Thursday. These dudes shut the Rays down. They dominated. Severino gets sick? No problem. The Yankees have become the sport’s preeminent run prevention team.

“Whatever name is called, you’re expected to get the job done,” Schmidt told Bryan Hoch. “It’s been happening every single time. That’s just a testament to this team. There’s so many things that go on behind the scenes as far as development and information. It’s just showing every day and night on the field.”

(Unfortunately for Weber, he was designated for assignment following the game so Severino could be activated off the COVID list. This sport can be cruel, but that was always the plan, and Weber’s been around long enough that I’m guessing he knew it. He was always going to be here temporarily. He earned his World Series ring though.)

Holmes the closer

Clay Holmes is definitely the closer now. I don’t say that because he’s getting all the save opportunities. I say that because he’s being held back for the ninth inning and other relievers are being tasked with facing the top/middle of the lineup earlier in the game. Tuesday it was King and Wednesday it was Miguel Castro and Lucas Luetge. Those are usually Holmes spots.

“(Tuesday) night I would have potentially used Holmes in the eighth inning (if Aroldis Chapman was available to close),” Aaron Boone told Andy Martino earlier this week. “If it lined up correctly, it would have been the top of that lineup and I hadn’t used (Wandy) Peralta already for the middle. I was prepared to go to Clay in the eighth.”

Using your best reliever in the ninth inning is common and will never be second guessed, though I don’t like marrying Holmes, this absolute relief monster, to a set inning rather than matching him up with the other team’s best hitters. Castro and Luetge nearly blew Wednesday’s game! They made a mess of the eighth and then Holmes faced the bottom of the lineup in the ninth.

“He’s got the sinker metrically in such a good spot that he feels confident throwing it in the zone in any count to any hitter,” Jameson Taillon told Greg Joyce about Holmes earlier this week. “Like in our meeting, we’ll have hitters we go over where it’s like, ‘Maybe a sinker’s not good to this guy or up is better than down.’ But for Clay, none of that matters because his pitch is such an outlier that he can throw it whenever he wants to whoever.”

With Holmes now tied to the ninth, and with a few relievers hurt, it’ll take a deft managerial touch to navigate the preceding innings, and that isn’t Boone’s strength. The 16-minute (!) umpire delay* Wednesday was the result of the Yankees not anticipating Ji-Man Choi pinch-hitting for the righty hitting first baseman, and needing to buy time for Luetge to get hot. Expecting the manager to anticipate the other team pinch-hitting its best hitter in a big spot is not too much to ask.

"At first, they were saying we couldn't go back out because once (Randy Arozarena) gets hit, that (next) at-bat is now in play," Boone told Bryan Hoch about the delay. "We can't go out twice within an at-bat. If you announce a pinch-hitter, you can. (Pitching coach Matt Blake) was already out there before they announced that pinch-hitter."

Holmes has been – and will continue to be – great as the closer. He’s not the issue. It’s just that lesser relievers are now facing the other team’s best hitters – the other team’s best chance to get back in the game – while Holmes is held back for the ninth inning. Many a game has been lost by lesser relievers in the seventh and eighth while the elite closer waits around for the ninth.

The Yankees won Wednesday’s game but it was a nice little reminder using Holmes as the closer and the closer only means the Yankees will rely on others to get important outs earlier in the game, and sometimes the most important outs. I’d rather be flexible with Holmes and use him against the top/middle of the lineup, though it doesn’t appear to be in the cards. It is what it is.

* I feel like I’ve been watching the “send the pitching coach out for a mound visit to buy time for the reliever to warm up, then change pitchers” move my entire life. Now it’s against the rules if the two mounds visits happen within the same at-bat? They must’ve made that rule change when they began to limit mound visits. Or am I going completely crazy and this was never allowed?

Cole abandons his cutter

For at least one start, anyway. Gerrit Cole added a cutter this year and, prior to his start against the Rays this week, he was averaging 12.3 cutters per start. He’s thrown as many as 21 cutters in a game this year. Then, against Tampa, he threw only three cutters all night. Cole cut back on the cutter and threw more sliders and curveballs. His pitch selection by start:

“He did what he’s supposed to do,” Jose Trevino told Dan Martin about Cole’s start. “That’s the good thing about Gerrit. He’s gonna come at you.”

Abandoning the cutter seems to be in response to the five-homer disaster in Minnesota. Two of the five homers came on middle-middle cutters, and while opponents are only hitting .194 with a .361 SLG against Cole’s cutter, it could be he doesn’t feel good about the pitch right now. There are times pitchers will lose the feel for an individual pitch during the season. It happens.

This is a thing to monitor. The cutter has been a pretty good pitch for Cole this year and giving up on it entirely would be unfortunate, though with something like this, I trust Gerrit and the Yankees to do what’s best. Hopefully this was just a one-start thing and he’s able to get the pitch right, and bring it back soon. The cutter’s been a nice addition outside that Twins start.

Four-man outfields

We’ve seen a lot of four-man outfields this year, particularly when Rizzo and Joey Gallo are at the plate. The Yankees have used a four-man outfield at times too. Gleyber Torres has made catches in left field (video) and right field (video) as part of the four-man outfield. This is definitely a thing.

“It’s different,” Torres told Randy Miller after the Yankees tried the four-man outfield in Spring Training. “We’re talking about a four-man outfield and it’s the moment to practice right now to be more confident in those situations … We practiced those things just in case there’s a (regular season) game where we’ve got opportunities to catch fly balls.”

If you watch the Yankees and pretty much only the Yankees, it would be easy to think the four-man outfield is widespread. It’s not. It’s confined largely to the AL East. Here are the teams that have used the four-man outfield the most this season heading into Thursday’s action:

Blue Jays: 6.7% of batters faced
Rays: 3.3%
Yankees: 1.3%
Tigers: 1.0%
Orioles: 0.3%
Rangers: 0.2%
Dodgers: 0.1%

The other 23 teams have not used a four-man outfield once this season. A.J. Hinch was one of the first to use a four-man outfield when he was with the Astros (he did it against Gallo), and now he’s brought it to the Tigers. The five AL East teams account for 90.1% of four-man outfields used in 2022, and that’s with the Red Sox doing it zero times.

Now here are the batters who have seen the most four-man outfields this season (min. 30 plate appearances):

Matt Carpenter: 32.4% of plate appearances
Joey Gallo: 20.1%
Anthony Rizzo: 14.2%
Cavan Biggio: 8.6%
Mike Trout: 6.1%

Carpenter has been in the big leagues for like five minutes this season and his 11 plate appearances with the four-man outfield are fifth most in baseball behind Rizzo (37), Gallo (36), Trout (14), and Kyle Tucker (13). Yankees hitters have seen a four-man outfield in 3.6% of their plate appearances. The Angels are a distant second at 1.0%. The MLB average is 0.4%.

The numbers tell us four-man outfields aren’t used often league-wide. This is very much a Yankees and AL East-centric strategy, at least so far. The rest of the league will catch on eventually. Have four-man outfields hurt Gallo and Rizzo? Yes, with the caveat the sample sizes are quite small. Here are their numbers on fly balls and line drives:

Gallo with four-man outfield: .500 AVG and .500 SLG (.500 BABIP)
Gallo with normal outfield: .472 AVG and .981 SLG (.378 BABIP)

Rizzo with four-man outfield: .125 AVG and .500 SLG (.000 BABIP)
Rizzo with normal outfield: .376 AVG and .921 SLG (.261 BABIP)

MLB average with four-man outfield: .379 AVG and .690 SLG (.327 BABIP)
MLB average with normal outfield: .438 AVG and .823 SLG (.377 BABIP)

Again, these are fly balls and line drive only, the most productive batted balls. Rizzo’s only hits with the four-man outfield are home runs, hence the .125 AVG and .000 BABIP (homers are not considered a ball in play because fielders don’t have a chance to make a play). Gallo is 5-for-10 with five singles when he hits the ball in the air against a four-man outfield. He just doesn’t put the ball in play much. His problem is contact, not contact quality.

The MLB averages tell us that yeah, the four-man outfield works, with the 133-point drop in slugging (!) more notable than the 59-point drop in average. We’re not just taking away hits now. We’re taking away doubles and triples. Stealing away a would-be ground ball single back up the middle with a shifted infielder is one thing. Taking away a double because the second baseman is in the right field corner is another.

Our perception of four-man outfields and how often they’re used is skewed because we see them so much in Yankees games. Yankees hitters see more four-man outfields than any other team (by a lot) and only two teams use the four-man outfield more often defensively. The rest of the league doesn’t see them nearly as much yet. Given the way these things usually go, we’re only going to see more four-man outfields moving forward. This is just the beginning.

(I am generally against banning the shift because I don’t want to stifle innovation, but four-man outfields might be my tipping point. Pitchers have enough of an advantage as it is and now we’re talking away extra-base hits too? We need to start swinging the pendulum back in the hitters’ direction. Forcing Infielders to keep two feet on the dirt is an easy enough solution. They tested that rule in Double-A last season.)

Miscellany

The home winning streak is up to 14 games. It’s the longest home winning streak at the new Yankee Stadium and tied for the sixth longest home winning streak in franchise history. The last time the Yankees won 14 straight games at home, Roger Maris was chasing down Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record in 1961. The Yankees are 28-7 with a +85 run differential at home and merely 18-9 with a +46 run differential on the road. Dominating at home and being good on the road will take you far in this game … Remember when King was in that little slump last month? His June: 6.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 10 K. Sometimes relievers have a bad week or two. That’s baseball. King is back to being, well, the king … And finally, welcome back ball boys! Ball girls, to be exact. A few weeks back I noted the Yankees still hadn’t brought back ball boys down the foul lines (ball boys went away during the 2020 pandemic season), then earlier this week the Yankees introduced their six new ball girls for the season. No more outfielders having to retrieve foul balls themselves like in Little League.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Pittsburgh Pirates. The rebuild continues in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have lost nine of their last 10 games to drop to 25-37. They have baseball’s second worst run differential (-101). None of this is unexpected and the Pirates will again sell at the trade deadline. They might be open for business right now for all we know.

Pittsburgh is deep in young outfielders and that works well for the Yankees since Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge will be free agents after the season. And not only are the Pirates deep in young outfielders, they’re all lefty hitters too, so they can’t even keep them and platoon them. It is an area of depth GM Ben Cherington can trade from to address other roster needs.

The Yankees and Pirates have hooked up for a lot of trades in recent years, most recently Clay Holmes and Jameson Taillon, and while the Holmes trade might make Pittsburgh gun shy about trading with the Yankees, they did well in the Taillon deal. Cherington is smart enough to know he needs to take whatever he considers the best offer and not sweat the trade partner.

Cherington’s thing with the Pirates has been quantity over quality trades in which he takes multiple good prospects (with an emphasis on very young players in rookie ball) rather than one or two great prospects, like the Taillon trade. That works well for the Yankees, who have a small army of second and third tier prospects to trade, and an upcoming 40-man roster logjam to clear out.

Which Pirates players could the Yankees target at the trade deadline this year, if any? Let’s take a look at the players who could realistically be available (so not the recently extended Ke’Bryan Hayes or tippy top prospects like Oneil Cruz and Henry Davis).

RHP David Bednar

2022 stats: 1.14 ERA (1.97 FIP), 35.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 30.4 GB% in 31.2 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb from 2022-23 and arb-eligible from 2024-26

About a year and a half ago I mentioned Bednar as a fringe roster guy with the Padres who could interest the Yankees, then he went to Pittsburgh in the Joe Musgrove trade, and now he’s one of the best relievers in baseball. See? Every once in a while I get something right. There is more to life than Statcast charts but Bednar is pretty good (video):

As good as the 27-year-old Bednar is, the Yankees emphasize suppressing hard contact, and he doesn’t do it. Not everyone needs to fit the exact same profile, but limiting hard contact is one of those things you’d like all your pitchers to do, you know? Still, Gerrit Cole allows a lot of hard contact and he makes it work. Bednar does as well, and he frequently works multiple innings too (he got an eight-out save Wednesday).

Bednar would obviously make the Yankees better. He’s better than someone somewhere along the line in the bullpen. That said, the Yankees are more about buying low on relievers nowadays. Not paying full price for some other team’s top guy. I think they’d look to acquire the next Bednar rather than pay for the real Bednar, similar to how they got the next Craig Kimbrel (Holmes) last year rather than pay for the real Kimbrel (not a perfect comparison but you get my drift).

While paying top dollar may not be something the Yankees want to do, I think it’s warranted in this case. Bednar is very good and the Yankees are having a special season, and should do all they can to improve their World Series chances. Also, a bunch of relievers will become free agents after the season (Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Miguel Castro), so Bednar can be part of the post-2022 bullpen core. I would be okay with paying a premium for a guy like this.

The last thing a bad team needs is a great reliever and I’m sure the Pirates will get a ton of calls about Bednar, but I think they might keep him? Like, long-term? He’s a Pittsburgh native and at some point you have to stop trading everyone for prospects and start to build a foundation. The Pirates struck gold with Bednar. Maybe he’d even sign an extension to stay close to home (Emmanuel Clase just got five years and $20M with two club options at the same service time level)?

RHP JT Brubaker

2022 stats: 4.50 ERA (4.39 FIP), 22.3 K%, 9.6 BB%, 43.9 GB% in 64 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2022 and arb-eligible from 2023-25

That’s 2022 Opening Day starter JT Brubaker, I’ll have you know. Brubaker is having his best big league season, though it’s not all that good, and all his underlying numbers are hovering around league average (including his 87.8 mph average exit velocity allowed and 7.7% barrel rate). I have the 28-year-old Brubaker here for four reasons (video):

He’s a sinker guy who has touched 96 mph with the pitch as a starter this season, and we know how much the Yankees love sinkers.
Brubaker’s slider has above average spin but not much horizontal movement (three inches below average). Seems like a candidate for the sweeper.
His curveball also has above average spin, and last year Baseball America (subs. req’d) said he “flashes an average changeup and at least average control.”
Brubaker will quick pitch Wandy Peralta style on occasion, which is fun. The Yankees like different looks and that’s one way to change it up.

A sinker, two high-spin breaking balls, an occasionally average changeup, and control that is at least average seems like a decent foundation, no? I’d be curious to see what pitching coach Matt Blake and the rest of the organizational pitching gurus could do with Brubaker. I mean, the Pirates couldn’t make Holmes and his 97 mph sinker good. There's probably more here than Brubaker has shown.

Brubaker seems like a guy who needs guidance and to make some adjustments, so perhaps he would be better as an offseason target, giving Blake & Co. a nice long runway to work with him over the winter and in Spring Training. Making adjustments in-season can be tough. Holmes did it, but Andrew Heaney did not. Brubaker interests me as a project for Blake and his people.

RHP Will Crowe

2022 stats: 2.13 ERA (3.17 FIP), 25.0 K%, 9.9 BB%, 47.4 GB% in 38 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb from 2022-23 and arb-eligible from 2024-26

The Pirates acquired Crowe in the Josh Bell trade with the Nationals and he looks like a classic “he was made for the bullpen” guy. He futzed around and had a 5.48 ERA (5.67 FIP) with blah underlying numbers in 116.2 innings as a starter last season. As a short reliever this year, he’s been borderline dominant. The 27-year-old Crowe has found a home in the bullpen (video).

As a starter last year Crowe threw five pitches at least 10% of the time each. He’s tightened up his arsenal as a reliever and is now a three-pitch guy, throwing his fastball, slider, and changeup roughly a third of the time each. Yes, he’s throwing roughly two-thirds non-fastballs, and hey, why not? Non-fastballs are harder to hit than fastballs. Crowe’s numbers:

Fastball: .185 AVG and .204 SLG (.262 xwOBA) with 20.2% whiffs per swing
Slider: .128 AVG and .205 SLG (.277 xwOBA) with 33.7% whiffs per swing
Changeup: .154 AVG and .256 SLG (.243 xwOBA) with 33.0% whiffs per swing

Crowe’s track record as a quality reliever is only 38 innings long (Bednar was excellent all last season but Holmes wasn't good at all before joining the Yankees, so who knows) and while I’m intrigued, I think this is a buy high situation, and buying high isn’t something the Yankees do all that often. But would Crowe make the Yankees better? Of course.

OF Cal Mitchell

2022 stats: .222/.265/.381 (79 wRC+), 2 HR, 22.1 K%, 5.9 BB% in 68 PA
Contract status: Pre-arb from 2022-24 and arb-eligible from 2025-28

Mitchell, 23, has been in the big leagues three weeks and he’s already had a hand in thwarting history. He broke up Miles Mikolas’ no-hit bid with a two-strike, two-out, ninth inning double earlier this week (video). “I’m happy that I was able to settle myself down enough to have a composed at-bat and come through,” Mitchell told Justice delos Santos after the game.

The No. 50 overall pick in the 2017 draft, Mitchell is essentially a one-tool player, and the one tool is bat-to-ball ability, arguably the most important tool. He has just okay power and isn’t a good defender, and isn’t particularly disciplined at the plate either. Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about Mitchell coming into the season (video):

Mitchell has some of the best hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills in the system. He made contact on 82% of his swings last season, finishing second in contact rate and fourth in strikeout rate in Double-A Northeast last season. That should allow most of his average raw power to play in games, particularly since his uppercut swing is geared to lift the ball. The risk here is that he gets exploited by more advanced arms, particularly hurlers who can blow fastballs by him at the top of the zone. Even with his swing plane, he’s been able to foul that pitch off up to this point, but big leaguers have faster gas and better spin; they’ll provide a sterner test than what he saw in Altoona. That test looms large, as Mitchell has few secondary abilities and thus really needs to hit. His swing-happy approach precludes a high OBP, and he’s just okay in right field. This looks like a low-stakes boom/bust profile. He’ll either maintain his contact rates and hit enough to start or he won’t, in which case he’ll get lapped by other talented outfielders in the org.

There are worse gambles to take than a guy who excels at making contact, especially since the Yankees have had recent success getting contact dudes to discover some power. Think Oswaldo Cabrera, Diego Castillo, Hoy Jun Park, etc. You needn’t be a Gold Glover to play right field in Yankee Stadium. You can dream on Mitchell a bit.

OF Bryan Reynolds

2022 stats: .257/.333/.459 (122 wRC+), 11 HR, 23.3 K%, 9.6 BB% in 249 PA
Contract status: $6.75M each in 2022 and 2023, and arb-eligible from 2024-25

The darling of the offseason started the season very slowly, but he’s looked more like himself the last few weeks, and is hitting .323/.376/.606 (170 wRC+) in his last 26 games. There are still red flags in the underlying data. His contact quality isn’t as good, his defense isn’t as good, and everything just isn’t as impressive as last season. The comparison (full-size image):

Reynolds, 27, was pretty bad during the short pandemic season and very good in his two 162-game seasons. This is the first time he’s been something less than excellent in a “normal” season, and isn’t possible Reynolds was thrown out of whack by the short Spring Training? Everyone dealt with it, sure, but some may have had a harder time with it than others.

“Get in a little earlier and softer, not swinging as hard, less is more,” Reynolds told Jason Mackey earlier this week about his recent hot streak. “We’re not there yet, but we’re on the way.”

I see a switch-hitter with a two-season track record of high contact rates, good swing decisions, the ability to hit the ball hard, and no worse than solid defense. The slow start this year is a bit worrisome, but Reynolds is coming out of it, and it’s looking more like a poorly timed slump (slump to start the season and everyone freaks out, slump in June and it’s just a slump) than an erosion of skills. I’m still all-in on Reynolds as a trade target.

The Pirates set a high asking price for Reynolds last year (they reportedly asked the Mariners for Julio Rodriguez) and understandably so. I don’t think the slow start this year spooked them into lowering their asking price just to move him as quickly as possible, before his value slips further. I think they’re going to treat Reynolds like he’s still the All-Star player he was last season.

Given the start of the outfield both now and moving forward, you have to at least make a call if you’re the Yankees. There could be Curtis Granderson potential in the sense that Granderson had a few great years with Detroit, scuffled through one down season, got traded, then proved he still had plenty left in the tank. If the asking price is too high, fine, but the Yankees have to at least try.

OF Jack Suwinski

2022 stats: .209/.272/.417 (93 wRC+), 8 HR, 31.1 K%, 6.6 BB% in 151 PA
Contract status: Pre-arb from 2022-24 and arb-eligible from 2025-28

Like I said, the Pirates are loaded with lefty hitting outfielders. Suwinski came over in the Adam Frazier trade and joins Mitchell, Travis Swaggerty (more on him in a sec), and the recently called up Canaan Smith-Njigba on the lefty hitting outfielder depth chart. The Pirates have also played Cruz and Tucupita Marcano in the outfield his year. That’s two more lefty bats.

The soon-to-be 24-year-old Suwinski profiles as a platoon outfielder/DH. He performed well in Double-A the last two years (.273/.387/.510 and 141 wRC+) and Pittsburgh skipped him right over Triple-A. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) said before the season (video):

Suwinski hits the ball hard. His 90 mph average exit velocity ranked among the best in Pittsburgh’ s system upon his arrival. He also hit the ball in the air more frequently than any point in his career previously, tapping into his pull-side power … His 28% strikeout rate and issues against same-side pitchers are concerns for evaluators, who note there’ s some stiffness in his swing. But he also walks plenty, is unafraid of deep counts and minimizes chase thanks to an advanced understanding of the strike zone. Suwinski isn’t a dynamic athlete defensively, but he’s an average runner with a solid-average arm who played almost exclusively at both corner outfield positions in 2021 … His struggles against lefties may limit Suwinski to a platoon role, but his power and plate discipline should allow him to reach the big leagues in relatively short order.

With all due respect to Suwinski, defensively challenged platoon bats with big exit velocity aren’t the hottest commodity. Those dudes can often be found on waivers (look how many times Mike Ford changed teams this year) and the only real advantage Suwinski offers is the ability to be optioned to the minors through 2024. As a depth guy, sure. As anything more, nah.

OF Travis Swaggerty

2022 stats: .279/.357/.429 (112 wRC+), 4 HR, 27.8 K%, 10.8 BB% in 158 PA in AAA
Contract status: Pre-arb from 2022-24 and arb-eligible from 2025-28

Swaggerty, 24, was the No. 10 pick in the 2018 draft, though his star has dimmed since then, and he’s not even a top 10 prospect in Pittsburgh’s system. The Pirates called him up earlier this month but didn’t give him much of a look. Swaggerty appeared in five games, went 1-for-9 with five strikeouts, and two of his three starts were against tough lefties Tarik Skubal and Max Fried.

For all intents and purposes, Swaggerty missed the entire 2020 and 2021 seasons because of the pandemic and a shoulder injury. He played only 12 Triple-A games last year before wrecking his shoulder diving back into first base on a pickoff attempt, and needing season-ending surgery. That’s a lot of lost development time for a player with some swing stuff to iron out.

Here’s what Longenhagen wrote about Swaggerty in Spring Training (video):

In large part thanks to his defense, Swaggerty still has a common fourth outfielder skill set. He’s a 60 defender in center, where his plus wheels will be a real asset in Pittsburgh’s cavernous outfield. At the plate, things are murkier but still tantalizing. He has obvious strength and explosiveness, and he posted some of the best exit velo numbers in the system in limited action. The catch here has always been the swing, which was noisy and groundball-oriented when the Pirates drafted him. There were fewer groundballs in last year’s teeny-tiny sample, when he elevated the ball far more often than he did in High-A, and Swaggerty’s swing looked a little bit different on tape with Indianapolis (narrower stance and hands load a little closer to his body, but all that may just be camera angle variation compared to previous looks). Any game power at all could make him a good everyday player, as he does lots of other stuff well. But the long layoff introduces a difficult variable to wrestle with here, as Swaggerty is now a 24-year-old with basically zero experience above A-ball.

Swaggerty’s ground ball rate sits at 49.5% in Triple-A this season, so he’s still struggling to elevate the ball and turn that exit velocity into production. A lefty swinger with some thump in his bat and more strikeouts than you’d like, plus above average defense in center field, sounds an awful lot like Estevan Florial. The skill sets are similar. For sure.

Acquiring some other team’s Florial doesn’t sound exciting but Florial/Swaggerty has impressive tools and could be a really good player if things click. And, if you add Swaggerty to a system that already includes Florial, you’re doubling your chances of getting a good player out of that skill set. At minimum, Swaggerty can still be optioned to Triple-A in 2023 and 2024. Florial will be out of minor league options next year, so Swaggerty could take over as the up and down outfielder.

If Yankees’ goal is to replace Joey Gallo and/or Aaron Hicks to improve their World Series chances, then Swaggerty’s probably not the guy to target. He’s more of a roll of the dice you’d want to spend time working with your player development folks before turning loose in the big leagues. Swaggerty seems like an offseason target, if anything. Given how hard it is to find a good center fielder, he shouldn’t be dismissed as a potential trade candidate.

RHP Duane Underwood Jr.

2022 stats: 4.24 ERA (2.14 FIP), 26.0 K%, 9.6 BB%, 51.1 GB% in 17 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2022 and arb-eligible from 2023-25

I probably should’ve mentioned Underwood in the next Holmes post. He’s a mid-90s sinker guy (though he only throws it about 22% of the time) who is simultaneously missing bats, getting grounders, and limiting hard contact for the first time in his career. Underwood has done all those things before, just never at the same time. Perhaps now it’s clicking, in his age 27 season?

Underwood was a top 100 prospect once upon a time and eventually he ran out of minor league options with the Cubs, a team that had trouble developing pitchers in the previous decade. Then he landed with the Pirates in a minor trade, another team that hasn’t stood out for its pitcher development. Underwood strikes me as No. 6 or 7 reliever type (think Luis Cessa). He is better than someone somewhere on the depth chart, so I could see it making sense.

(Underwood missed a bunch of time with a hamstring injury earlier this year and he’s currently on the COVID list, hence the lack of innings this season.)

* * *

Bednar and Reynolds, and maybe Brubaker and Crowe, are the guys to target to improve the 2022 Yankees. They’re the only Pirates players who figure to move the needle for a team trying to win a World Series. I still love Reynolds and wouldn’t be scared away by his slow start, though I would certainly try to use it to lower the asking price.

Taking a more long-term look, then just about everyone here could interest the Yankees. Bednar and Reynolds are under control through at least 2025, I’m intrigued by Brubaker and Swaggerty, and even Mitchell and Suwinski are interesting enough. I gotta think the Pirates will trade from their group of lefty hitting outfielders at some point. The Yankees need outfield help for the future, making the two natural trade partners.

3. 2022 draft prospect: Gonzaga RHP Gabriel Hughes. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Hughes has baseball bloodlines (his grandfather, Donald, played minor league ball in the 1960s) and he’ll turn 21 in August, making him one of the youngest college players in the draft. After starting his career as a two-way player, Hughes broke out once he focused on pitching full-time last year. His year he threw 98 innings with a 3.21 ERA (3.11 FIP) and 34.1% strikeouts.

For what it’s worth, Hughes is an extremely bright kid who is on track to graduate in three years, and would be going to medical school next year if he didn’t have a seven-figure payday waiting for him on draft day. Here are his draft rankings:

Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 20
FanGraphs: No. 67
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 31
MLB.com: No. 20

Hughes came into the season as more of a second round guy, then he climbed into the mix for the middle of the first round, and now he’s falling out of the first round in mock drafts. I don’t quite get it, but whatever. Here’s video and here’s a piece of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Hughes has an exciting combination of size, repertoire and feel for pitching. The 6-foot-4 right-hander has electric stuff, starting with a fastball that’s regularly in the 94-97 mph range with ease, leading some scouts to wonder if he might touch triple digits someday. His slider can be a wipeout pitch, up to 89-90 mph, and he even shows very good feel for his changeup.

The big right-hander can fill up the strike zone with all three pitches, throwing them to both sides of the plate and commanding his breaking stuff well. He gets high grades for his makeup

For what it’s worth, Jim Callis recently said the Yankees “could have interest” in Hughes, and I’ve been doing this long enough and reading Callis long enough to know that when he says a team could have interest in a player, they have interest in the player. He’s super plugged in and doesn’t just throw stuff out there on a whim. The Yankees are in on Hughes.

Two things about Hughes stand out to me. First, he hasn’t been pitching full-time all that long, suggesting he still has room to grow. And he’s a very smart kid, which could help him make any adjustments thrown his way. And second, Hughes has an inconsistent slider with a short-ish break, which would seem to make him a candidate for the sweeper. Draft him and you’re drafting an arrow up player with arm strength, a big frame, and intelligence.

I will again remind you that nearly every top college pitcher got hurt this year. Hughes and Oregon State lefty Cooper Hjerpe were the best to make it through the spring in one piece. College pitchers are always a hot commodity on draft day and that could lead to Hughes (and Hjerpe) coming off the board earlier than the public draft prospect rankings would lead you to believe.

The Yankees have gone so position player heavy early in the last few drafts (only seven pitchers taken in the top five rounds the last four drafts) that I would bet against Hughes being near the top of their board despite the rumored interest. He does have some of the traits they seek though, and if the right bats aren’t there at No. 25, sure, I can see it.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees are trying to go to France. According to Ron Blum, the Yankees have let MLB know they want to play in the first games in Paris. A few weeks back it was reported the Dodgers are trying to get involved as well. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a series of international games as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and Paris is on the list. Here’s the international play schedule:

I love games in different places (they’re fun and they break up the monotony of the long 162-game season) and man I hope the Yankees go to Paris. Dodgers vs. Yankees in Paris would be extremely cool. If not Paris, then send the Yankees to Seoul for Opening Day 2024 or something (I assume Tokyo being on the 2025 schedule means the “Asia Opener” in 2024 won’t also be in Japan). For now, the Yankees are trying to lock down the Paris games. I really hope it happens ... And finally, Aaron Judge told Peter Botte he won't participate in the Home Run Derby this year. Nothing new here. Judge has passed on the Home Run Derby every year since winning it in 2017. That's too bad. I want to see him win it with hilarious ease again. Judge's Home Run Derby started in April. I'll settle for that.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Alessandro asks: As much as improving the offense at catcher would be ideal, am I the only one that doesn't understand the link to Willson Contreras? He's an offense first catcher, and they have clearly made defense the priority. In addition, it's always hard to integrate a catcher midseason because he has to learn the pitching staff on the fly. Trevino is playing well enough that he deserves a longer look, and if nothing else, you don't trade for a guy like Contreras to be a 50-50 platoon partner.

Has there been anything linking Contreras to the Yankees that isn’t speculation? If there is, I haven’t seen it. Contreras is a free agent-to-be and the Cubs are awful, so he’s an obvious trade candidate. He’ll be far and away the best catcher (and possibly the only starting caliber catcher) on the market at the deadline. We’re going to hear his name a ton the next two months.

Based on the “the Yankees are winning a lot of games” logic, the 50/50 catcher split is working, though Kyle Higashioka’s spot is one of the few roster spots the Yankees can upgrade in a significant way. Even with the recent homer binge, he’s hitting .177/.229/.313 (53 wRC+) and his defensive numbers aren’t great, yet he plays half the time. Contreras over Higashioka would add multiple wins to the ledger.

Trade for Contreras and the Yankees could continue with the 50/50 catcher split, and also give Contreras time at DH. Figure he could play three out of every four games (two at catcher and one at DH). When Contreras is at DH, Giancarlo Stanton plays the outfield, and at-bats are taken away from Joey Gallo and Aaron Hicks, who deserve to have at-bats taken away. It could work.

I don’t think there’s any chance the Yankees go after Contreras, however. I don’t think they want to change their catching mix in-season given the success of the pitching staff, and I don’t think they’re eager to go back to an all-bat/no-glove catcher so soon after moving on from Gary Sanchez. Contreras to the Yankees is a workable idea that I think has little chance of happening.

Taylor asks: Aroldis Chapman is throwing bullpens and getting ready to come back. How would you utilize Chapman in the bullpen going forward after he is activated vs how do you think Boone will utilize him?

Chapman has been throwing off a mound and will face hitters in live batting practice soon, likely this weekend. He’s also gone through fielding drills to test his Achilles. Chapman has been out close to a month now and I assume he’ll go on a proper minor league rehab assignment before rejoining the Yankees, so he’s what, still a week or two away? Maybe more?

“B, B- command, which is better than what we’ve been getting,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Dan Martin about Chapman’s bullpen work earlier this week. “We’re focused on trying to streamline his delivery to home plate. He’s made a lot of progress the last week or two as he focuses on things in his throwing program and tries to get a feel for what he’s working on.”

In the past the Yankees eased Chapman back into action following an injured list stint and I gotta think they’ll do that again now. A few low leverage appearances before thrusting him back into a late innings spot, that kinda thing. They've done it before. Ideally, Chapman dominates and is able to resume closing, freeing up Clay Holmes for important spots at other points in the game.

“(Holmes will) be closing some games too,” Aaron Boone told Martin earlier this week when asked about the bullpen once Chapman returns. “Basically he’s going to find himself in a lot of the toughest parts of the lineup. Whether that’s the eighth inning, the ninth inning, we’ll try to match him up as best we can.”

Chapman has said he’ll pitch whenever the Yankees need him – “For me, at the end of the day, I’m here to pitch. Whatever works,” he said in Spring Training – but saying it and doing it are different things. Some of these veteran closers can struggle when you take them out of their comfort zone (i.e. the ninth inning). Until we see Chapman do it, we don’t know that he can do it.

Ultimately, Chapman needs to get healthy and perform well before the Yankees worry about where he fits. If he comes back and struggles, then Holmes isn’t leaving the ninth inning. I think the Yankees want Chapman to close so they can use Holmes as a Moment of Truth guy. I also don’t think they will hand him the job just because. He’ll have to show he’s back on track first.

Gregory asks: It’s really early, obv, but given the year the team is having and the pitching depth, can’t allow Cole to let ‘em down like he does in many (most?) meaningful games. So Taillon is the backup, any sign of trouble and you pull Cole. Does Taillon’s style lend himself to that kind of role?

I don’t think that’s fair. Gerrit Cole pitched poorly in the Wild Card Game last year, no doubt, but he obviously wasn’t right after the hamstring injury, and he pitched well in the 2020 postseason, including on short rest with the season on the line in ALDS Game 5. Gregory sent the question in after the Twins drubbing and did anyone consider that a big game? It was the Twins on June 9th, and with the Yankees having baseball’s best record by a good margin. Who cares?

Hypothetically, if Cole struggles in the postseason and the Yankees have to pull the plug early in a start, they’re going to the bullpen. They’re not going to hold Jameson Taillon or Nestor Cortes or anyone back as Cole insurance. Those guys are going to be lined up to make their own postseason start, and they have between start routines to follow. “What if our ace gets rocked?” is not really something teams plan for. You just have to react accordingly.

Joe asks: Does Carpenter make the postseason roster? And related question, do they try and get him reps in 1-2 positions to work his bat into the lineup. I know you’ve mentioned his D metrics are poor but if he keeps this up, which is possible since he sustained success for awhile in STL, they have to find a way to keep in the lineup. (Side note: if he can keep up a more sustainable level of success, I like his bat more than Gallo for October. You can’t have a Gallo cold streak in the playoffs if you’re also carrying IKF/Higgy.)

Oh absolutely. Unless he gets hurt or completely craters the rest of the way, Matt Carpenter is an ideal bench guy for the postseason. He’s been there, done that in October, has power, will work tough at-bats, and you can put him at several positions in an emergency. I know Jose Trevino has been great lately, but it’s not hard to envision Carpenter regularly pinch-hitting for the catchers in big spots in the postseason. He’s a great fit for that role.

You can get away with carrying 12 (or even 11) pitchers in the postseason because there are so many built-in off-days and so few scenarios in which you’ll use your eighth reliever or emergency long man. Drop a pitcher to carry an extra bench player and the Yankees can have Carpenter’s bat and Tim Locastro’s legs in October. Still a lot of season to be played, obviously. Right now though, I see no reason to think Carpenter wouldn’t be on the postseason roster.

As for giving Carpenter more time in the field, yeah, it’s something the Yankees can consider if he keeps mashing. Playing Carpenter at third base during Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino starts makes sense because they’re strikeout/fly ball pitchers who don’t get many ground balls to third base. You can hide Carpenter at the hot corner for a few innings when they’re on the mound. As long as the bat stays hot, the Yankees will consider giving him more time in the field.

Jon asks: The umpire ratings on YES fascinate me. How is the data compiled? Is it publicly available? Can it be used to determine the worst performing umps, and if so, who are they?

I’m sure everyone has seen them, but for those who haven’t, here’s what the YES Network umpire scouting reports look like. They’re new this season:

I asked around and YES uses Sports Info Solutions as its stats provider. They get umpire data and a bunch of other stuff (like those outfield arm scouting reports, etc.) from SIS, which they use it to build graphics for broadcasts. SIS has contracts with many networks not just for baseball, but basketball and football as well (I imagine YES uses them for the Nets too).

Here’s an SIS post explaining their umpire data, though it’s a few years old and I assume they’ve since updated their methodology. I haven’t found much use for the umpire scouting reports (I see them and forget them like two seconds later) but I like that the data’s there. It’s a quick graphic in the first inning and that’s it. It’s not jammed down our throats throughout the game.

Skillalytics has some umpire statistics (DJ Reyburn and Bill Miller boost strikeout rates to 1.22 times the league average, the highest among regular umpires) and I could’ve sworn Statcast data was searchable for umpires, but I guess not any longer. It’s important stuff though. Teams absolutely factor that night’s umpire in their game plan.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)