May 17th, 2022: Cole, Donaldson, Gallo, Homers, Chapman, Schmidt, Prospects

The Yankees have won 26 of their first 35 games for only the sixth time in franchise history. They previously did it in 1926 (26-9), 1928 (28-7), 1939 (28-7), 1951 (26-9), and 1998 (26-9), and they won the World Series in every one of those years except 1926, when they lost the World Series to the Cardinals in seven games. The 2022 Yankees are the first team to win at least 26 of their first 35 games since the 2016 Cubs started 27-8. Good things tend to happen when you start the season this well. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees won for the 21st time in their last 25 games Monday night and they lost the four games by one, one, two, and three runs. This team never gets blown out (one loss by more than three runs all year and that was a 5-0 loss to the Orioles on April 17th). This the first time the Yankees have won 21 times in a 25-game span since … last August? I didn’t realize it was that recent. They had a 21-4 streak early in 2018 too. You have to go back to 1998 for the last time they did it before that though. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Cole’s fastball dominance

Gerrit Cole’s pitching line Friday night was worse than it should have been (6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 9 K). He allowed a run on a balk that was the product of miscommunication (DJ LeMahieu didn’t tell Cole he wasn’t holding the runner on at first), and then Isiah Kiner-Falefa made a poor throw preceding a two-run homer. Blame Cole for the homer. He was pretty great otherwise.

"Obviously, that first inning, some stuff he had to deal with and he picked us up big time. Had to work hard to get outs, to hold them down to no runs in that situation where we gave an extra out," Aaron Boone told Max Goodman after the game. “I thought he did a great job navigating that inning and then got pitch efficient. I thought he settled into a really good groove there. Had to navigate around some more things towards the end of his night, but I thought overall, I thought he threw the ball really well."

The White Sox are not an especially good fastball hitting team (25th in MLB with a .313 wOBA against heaters) and Cole got eight misses on 25 swings against his fastball, or 32%. That lowered his season fastball whiff rate to 34.6%. The four-seam fastball whiff rate leaderboard going into Monday’s games (min. 200 four-seamers thrown):

1. Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 34.6%
2. Spencer Strider, Braves: 30.6%
3. Tylor Megill, Mets: 30.3%
4. Cristian Javier, Astros: 27.9%
5. Alek Manoah, Blue Jays: 27.9%
   (MLB average: 20.4%)

The post-foreign substance crackdown demise of Cole’s fastball has been greatly exaggerated. Getting swings and misses with the fastball was an issue at times after the crackdown last season, sure, but only at times. There was a dip in late June and early July, right after the crackdown, then his whiff rate bounced back to where it normally sits. Here’s the graph:

You can see the dip at midseason, right after the crackdown, then another dip late in the season, after Cole hurt his hamstring. Cole didn’t get a single swing and miss on his fastball on Opening Day this year. It was 26.7% whiffs against the fastball in his second start. The five starts since: 42.9%, 35.3%, 43.8%, 42.4%, and 32.0%. His spin rate isn’t all the way back to pre-crackdown, but it’s up there:

Spin rates jumped across the entire league late last season in such a way that suggests players found a way to use sticky stuff without detection. Cole’s probably among them. Can we give him (or anyone) the benefit of the doubt? Not really. Cole’s a known sticky stuff user and players who cheat (this is 100% against the rules!) tend to keep cheating. It is what it is.

The larger point is Cole once again has the game's most dominant fastball, at least among starting pitchers. He has nine starts with a 40% fastball whiff rate as a Yankee and three of the nine have come in his last five starts. It goes beyond raw spin rate too. It’s location, it’s sequencing, it’s the new cutter, it’s a lot of things. Is Cole what he was before the crackdown? Maybe not exactly, but he’s damn close. The sluggish start to the season is over.

Donaldson and Gallo trending up

Josh Donaldson and Joey Gallo are coming around. Gallo’s .191/.303/.362 (101 wRC+) line isn’t great and Monday night’s four strikeouts were ugly, but the .191 AVG and 13.8% walk rate (and 37.6% strikeout rate) are more or less what we should expect given his career to date. We’re just waiting on the home runs, and he has five in his last 16 games. They’re starting to come.

Donaldson is still striking out (25.4%) and chasing out of the zone (28.8%) a lot more than he has the last few years, though those rates are trending in the right direction …

… and he’s working on a 22-game on-base streak. His contact quality (92.3 mph average exit velocity and 13.2% barrel rate) is excellent, near the top of the league, so the ability to hit the ball hard is still there. And it’s not like he’s beating the ball into the ground either (36.3% ground balls). With only five homers in 35 games, is it possible Donaldson is falling victim to the mush ball? These were his fly ball and line drive locations going into Monday:

Some of those non-homers at the wall look closer to being home runs than they really were because Donaldson didn’t hit them at Yankee Stadium. The one at the 385 feet mark didn’t even reach the warning track (video). Same with the one to the right of that (video). Either way, Donaldson has hit his fair share of long fly balls without being rewarded. With any luck Monday night’s dinger is a sign the home runs and extra-base hits are on the way.

The difference between a juggernaut Yankees offense and a merely very good Yankees offense is Donaldson and Gallo performing as expected. Both started the season slowly and Donaldson in particular showed some worrisome signs with his strikeouts and chases (worrisome given his age). I wouldn’t say either guy is capital-B Back, but the arrow is definitely pointing up.

Dinger differential

A Yankees catcher hit a home run! Jose Trevino hit a three-run shot off the foul pole the other way Monday night. It’s the first of the season for a Yankees backstop. They were the last team in baseball to get a home run from their catchers, and Trevino really went up to get it too:

(The Yankees and Nationals are the only teams without a home run from their shortstops and Washington is playing literally Alcides Escobar and Dee Strange-Gordon at short. Did we go back in time to 2014? Anyway, you’re on the clock, Isiah.)

It was nice and hot in Chicago this past weekend and the ball flew at Guaranteed Rate Field. At least when the Yankees were batting. The White Sox hit four homers in the four games. The Yankees hit nine, and seven of the nine were hit by righties (Gallo had the other two). Look at the spray chart of the righty homers in the four games:

I love when the Yankees bring the short porch on the road. In all seriousness, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and Donaldson) don’t need the short porch to hit opposite field dingers. The White Sox pitched them away, the Yankees said that’s cool and they drove the ball out of the park anyway. Kinda feels like Chicago went into that series without really knowing how to pitch the big guys. They thought they could pitch them away and be okay.

“They could throw a softball up there and they’d probably still hit it out,” Donaldson told Dan Martin about Judge and Stanton after Friday’s game. “Not many parks can contain them. But it’s the entire lineup that’s contributing.”

Judge (12), Stanton (10), and Anthony Rizzo (10) are the first trio of Yankees teammates ever – ever! – with double-digit homers through 35 team games. Only eight teams have ever done it, most recently the 2020 White Sox. Yordan Alvarez and Byron Buxton are the only other players with 10+ homers this year. Three of the game’s top five home runs hitters wear pinstripes.

Through 35 games the Yankees have hit 52 home runs and given up 26 home runs. That is the most homers hit and the second fewest homers allowed (the Giants have allowed 23). Here’s the home run differential leaderboard:

1. Yankees: +26 (52 hit vs. 26 allowed)
2. Astros: +22 (49 hit vs. 27 allowed)
3. Brewers: +18 (49 hit vs. 31 allowed)
4. Braves: +17 (44 hit vs. 27 allowed)
5. Angels: +15 (49 hit vs. 34 allowed)
…
29. Red Sox: -17 (22 hit vs. 39 allowed)
30. Reds: -20 (29 hit vs. 49 allowed)

The Red Sox have only hit 22 homers this season? Good gravy. Anyway, only 23 of the 52 home runs the Yankees have hit have been solo shots, or 44%. 56% of all homers are solos league-wide. When the Yankees go deep, they tend to be damage homers with men on base. (Only 13 of the 26 homers the Yankees have allowed have been solos, or 50%. I’m surprised it’s that low.)

The Yankees are reliant on home runs. They’ve scored 52.0% of their runs on homers, the highest rate in baseball (the Angels are next at 47.3%). This is the way the team is designed and it’s not a bad thing even though people tend to freak out about relying on homers. Homers are harder to hit this year, so they’re even more valuable than usual, and the Yankees hit a lot of ‘em.

I guess the one concern I have is the Yankees rely on home runs despite getting little home run production from three positions. Their catchers, shortstops, and center fielders have combined to hit four homers in 35 games and three were hit by Judge when he was playing center (Aaron Hicks hit his homer as a left fielder). Relying on homers: good. Relying on homers when a third of your lineup can’t hit homers: slightly less good.

There were two pretty clear instances recently of Gallo maybe not getting completely pitched around, but definitely not being challenged in a big spot with Kiner-Falefa due up next (this at-bat and this at-bat), and that will probably keep happening. We can’t expect the bottom of the lineup to hit homers, so it’s up to everyone else to provide the power. Hopefully the guys at the bottom of the order start chipping in a little more offensively though. There’s room for improvement there.

“When they’re playing like this and we’re getting contributions from the rest of the lineup, that’s when we’re at our best,” Boone told Martin over the weekend. “(Home runs are) an important part of the game. We certainly have guys that can hit the ball out of the ballpark.”

Chapman’s lack of whiffs

Aroldis Chapman served up the walk-off loss Saturday and I have two things to say about that. First, I don’t have a problem with using Chapman in that spot. I know Clay Holmes threw only 13 pitches in the eighth inning, but he’s appeared in half the team’s games, and I’d rather not push him hard to beat the paper tiger White Sox in May. I was fine with the move. It just didn’t work out.

And second, Chapman’s 2.13 ERA is deceptive. He has not been good this year. Mike King had to bail him out of that bases loaded, no outs jam a few weeks ago, and Chapman has put 17 runners on base in 12.2 innings (eight hits and nine walks). He’s had four 1-2-3 innings in his 15 appearances. Also, he struck out just one of the previous 23 batters he faced (4.3%!) before striking out the final two batters he faced Monday.

Chapman is running career worst strikeout (25.0%) and swinging strike (12.3%) rates, and swings and misses are Chapman’s entire thing. He’s always walked a lot of batters (12.4% from 2017-21), but he made up for it with strikeouts and not allowing the ball to be put in play (and when it was put in play, he’s always suppressed hard contact). Now the strikeouts aren't coming as easily.

Chapman turned 34 in January and while we don’t see the 100 mph heaters as often as we once did, he still has plenty of velocity. Given his age and role (almost always high leverage situations), any sign of decline is worrisome. But it’s also been 12.2 innings? We’ve seen Chapman go through these “he can’t throw strikes and he isn’t missing bats” phases plenty of times over the years.

Over the weekend Boone suggested the Yankees don’t have a set closer, and if that’s true, it’s new. Chapman received every save opportunity for which he was available this season prior to Sunday, when Holmes got it*. And Chapman was warming up for the save chance Monday before Donaldson and Rizzo broke the game open with their back-to-back homers.

* Technically it wasn’t a save opportunity Sunday because Gallo’s two-run homer turned a two-run lead into a four-run lead in the top of the ninth. Holmes was warmed up before that though and was coming in for the save. Once he was warm and ready to come in, might as well use him. Same with Chapman on Monday.

The Yankees are at their best when Chapman is locking down the ninth inning, and Boone can use Holmes & Co. in their “lanes” earlier in the game. Mixing and matching in the ninth inning is great and can be very effective. I also think there’s a lot of value in having a set closer (as long as that closer’s reliable, obviously). Give the Yankees a truth serum and I’m certain they’d say they want Chapman to be The Guy in the ninth inning. It frees up the rest of the bullpen.

As uncomfortable as he makes me, Chapman’s track record says to stay patient and let him work through things, because a stretch is probably coming where he looks like the best reliever in the world. If he’s still walking everyone and not missing bats in a few weeks, the Yankees can – and will have to – reevaluate. If the Yankees are going to start mixing and matching in the ninth, okay, but the ultimate goal is likely returning Chapman to the closer’s role full-time.

Schmidt returns

So apparently it is still a 10-day rule? I give up. If Jack Curry got it wrong, then the little guys like me have no chance. Clarke Schmidt was called up Friday to give the Yankees a long man after Luis Gil’s spot start. Thursday was the first day Schmidt could be recalled. The Yankees gave Gil the spot start instead because he’s built up more (Schmidt threw only 46 pitches in his lone Triple-A start).

“It’s good to be back here,” Schmidt told Martin after being recalled. “Opportunities like this I don’t take for granted.”

Schmidt got into Saturday’s game and tossed 2.2 scoreless innings, and one of the two hits he allowed did not leave the infield. Small sample size positive: Schmidt has walked just one of the last 27 big league batters he’s faced, or 3.7%. For a guy who’s had issues controlling his lively stuff, that’s good to see. Hope it continues.

I’m glad Schmidt is back and I hope he gets more regular work this time around. The Yankees still have another 13 games and 13 days to go in this 23 games in 22 days stretch and I’d bet they're eyeing a spot starter during the Orioles series next week (yes, another O’s series). Could be Schmidt, could be Gil again (he can return next Sunday), could be no one. We’ll see.

Miscellany

I got a kick out of Donaldson cutting in front of Kiner-Falefa to take ground balls Friday after Kiner-Falefa botched two plays earlier in the game (he did it here and here). Kiner-Falefa has been rough lately. Defense is shaky and getting thrown out at third in the ninth inning Saturday was just bonehead baseball. He’s gonna score from second on any hit to the outfield anyway. You gotta make sure the throw is going home before trying to take third base, otherwise just stay at second with one out and let LeMahieu and Judge get their at-bats against Liam Hendriks with an elevated pitch count. The defense and base running shortstop not being all that reliable on defense or on the bases is suboptimal … And finally, last season Yankees pitchers averaged 24.1 seconds between pitches within an at-bat. This year? 23.0 seconds. The MLB average is 23.2 seconds, down from 23.7 seconds last season. It’s a start. Long live PitchCom.

2. Prospect thoughts. Low-A Tampa had a crazy week last week and not in a good way. They went 1-5 and were outscored 34-24 by Dunedin (Blue Jays), and whatever. You want to foster a winning environment in the minors but one bad week isn’t the end of the world. But, in those six games, Tampa hitters struck out 96 times, or 16 times per game. That includes a 24-strikeout game Saturday. It’s the most strikeouts by a single team in a nine-inning game since MLB took over minor league record keeping in 2005. The Florida State League strikeout rate is 28.0% this season. That blows my mind. Anyway, here are a few prospect thoughts.

Volpe’s season

Not a great start to the season for the Yankees’ No. 1 prospect. SS Anthony Volpe is hitting .165/.286/.321 (74 wRC+) with four homers through 29 games with Double-A Somerset. Volpe looked to be getting on track late last month. Instead, he is 5-for-43 (.116) with 13 strikeouts in 11 games in May. Ain’t no sugarcoating it, Volpe’s started the season very poorly.

“There’s a ton of very talented players, even at this level, throughout the game. Fast starts. Slow starts. It’s a marathon,” Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty about Volpe’s slow start over the weekend. “... He’ll heat up. I think he’s already started heating up. That kid’s wired right.”

The jump from High-A to Double-A is the biggest in the minors. The competition is much better and the game is much faster. Everything about it is more challenging and Volpe’s learning that the hard way. Here are his strikeout and walk rates at each level:

• Low-A: 16.7 K% and 19.8 BB% (7.3% swinging strikes) in 54 games
• High-A: 22.7 K% and 10.5 BB% (9.8% swinging strikes) in 55 games
• Double-A: 26.3 K% and 12.8 BB% (11.4% swinging strikes) in 29 games

The automated strike zone was used in Low-A for the first time last year and the league-wide walk rate shot up, so Volpe’s walk rate was always going to come down as he climbed the ladder. Minor league walk rates aren’t super predictive anyway. There are so many pitchers who have no idea where the ball is going in the minors. That doesn’t just lead to walks. It also leads to hittable get-me-over pitches.

What made Volpe so exciting last year was the combination of contact (8.6% swinging strikes) and the ability to hit the ball hard in the air (27.8% grounders). This year Volpe’s making less contact and also hitting more balls on the ground (41.9%). We don’t have Statcast data for Double-A, though I’m sure he’s still hitting the ball hard even though the results aren’t there. It would be hard to keep a notable drop in exit velocity secret.

Context is important. The Eastern League averages are 27.1% strikeouts (12.9% swinging strikes) and a 41.7% grounders. Volpe’s right there despite being three years younger than the average player in the league (fifth youngest in the league overall). He’s not dominating, but he's also not striking out or hitting grounders at a rate that suggests he’s overmatched. That’s somewhat encouraging.

“He keeps grinding out at-bats,” Somerset manager Dan Fiorito (yes, that Dan Fiorito) told Kuty last month. “Even some of the times where he wasn’t putting it all together, or when he wasn’t just crushing the ball like we saw all of last year, he’s still competitive.”

We all want our favorite prospects to rip through the minors and zoom up the ladder. A little adversity never hurt anyone though. Experience failure, learn to cope and adjust, and continue to take steps forward. That’s development. Volpe’s never failed at baseball until these last few weeks. Given his makeup, I’m sure he’s handling it well, and last year’s success was the product of adjustments made on his own during the pandemic season. He’s shown the aptitude to adjust.

Hopefully when we check back in on Volpe in a few weeks, he’s righted the ship and putting up numbers on par with 2021. Right now though, he’s been disappointing, and it looks especially bad given the Yankees’ approach to shortstop this past offseason. That’s not Volpe’s fault, but the Yankees did put all their eggs in this basket, so he’s going to be under the microscope.

Florial’s steals

We saw OF Estevan Florial as the 27th man in the doubleheader last weekend and he’s having a nice season in Triple-A, hitting .270/.365/.430 (116 wRC+) with three home runs. Here’s video of his opposite field blast Sunday. That’s up from .218/.315/.404 (93 wRC+) last season. He’s repeating the level, so he should be doing better this year, and he is.

Florial is still only 24, and he’s striking out a little less (30.9% vs. 27.8%) and walking a little more (11.6% vs. 13.0%) than last year. Beyond the slash line and the strikeout and walk rates, I’m interested in the stolen bases. Florial’s steals over the years (minors only):

• 2022: 10-for-11 (91%) in 27 games (0.41 attempts per game)
• 2021: 13-for-21 (62%) in 87 games (0.24 attempts per game)
• 2019: 9-for-14 (64%) in 74 games (0.19 attempts per game)*
• 2018: 16-for-26 (62%) in 84 games (0.31 attempts per game)*
• 2017: 23-for-31 (74%) in 110 games (0.28 attempts per game)

* There might have been mitigating circumstances in 2018 and 2019 because Florial had a wrist injury each season. It’s possible that when he returned in the second half, the Yankees said don’t run as much and risk reinjuring the wrist on a slide.

Stolen base success rate is way up and so are his attempts per game. Normally I wouldn’t think much of this (it’s only 27 games) but we know the Yankees have emphasized base running in the minors, and Florial’s a speedy guy, so he seems like someone the Yankees would try to maximize on the bases. Florial had more steals to give and, so far, he’s giving them.

Prospect fatigue set in with Florial a long time ago and this is his final minor league option year, so it’s make or break time. At least with the Yankees, it is. He’ll get other opportunities elsewhere. Even with the swing and miss issues, a lefty hitter with some power and top of the line center field defense can be a useful fourth outfielder. Add in the possibility of more stolen bases and that’s even more true. A good start to an important season for Florial.

Champlain and Coleman

They aren’t RHP Will Warren level breakouts, but RHP Chandler Champlain and RHP Carson Coleman have started the season well and are kinda sorta breaking out. Champlain, last year’s ninth round pick, has a 2.49 ERA (3.33 FIP) with 28.4% strikeouts and 4.9% walks in six starts and 25.1 innings with Low-A Tampa. Coleman was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2020. He’s been great as a reliever with High-A Hudson Valley: 19.1 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 9 BB, 26 K.

The 22-year-old Champlain is the better prospect of the two. Because he’s in Tampa, we have Statcast data, and he’s sat around 94 mph with his heater and touched 98 mph. He also has an upper-70s curveball, a mid-80s slider, and an upper-80s cutter. The cutter is new and tends to bleed into the slider and get misclassified. Here’s the vertical vs. horizontal movement:

Champlain didn’t pitch all that well with USC last spring (5.31 ERA in 127 career innings) but teams scout the arm action and pitch profiles more than the stats, and the Yankees have helped Champlain add a little velocity and that cutter. He’s not trending toward being a top prospect or anything, but Champlain is a ninth rounder who’s popped a little bit early in his first pro season.

As for Coleman, the 24-year-old was a 33rd round pick in 2019 (Rays) and he probably would have been picked again in the late rounds in 2020 had there been late rounds. He’s a reliever all the way with a low arm angle and serious run on a fastball that sits 94-96 mph. This is a tough angle (GIF via Hudson Valley):

Coleman pairs the running fastball with the sweeping slider you’d expect from a) a low arm slot guy, and b) a Yankees prospect. A mid-90s fastball, a quality slider, and a bunch of strikeouts are the bare minimum to get noticed as a bullpen prospect these days, and Coleman has them. He has been good so far, but we’re not going to learn too much about him until he gets to Double-A. I bet the Yankees move him up fairly soon.

(Real talk: I have breakout pitcher fatigue. There are so many tools to help pitchers improve and I feel like I’m writing about another guy who’s added velocity and has a great new slider every week. I understand and appreciate the importance of pitcher development, but I’m much more interested in hitter breakouts right now.)

3. 2022 draft prospect: Florida OF Sterlin Thompson. The 2022 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 25 pick. Here are the draft prospects we’ve already profiled. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Thompson was considered a top 2-3 rounds talent going into the 2020 draft, but the pandemic cut his senior season of high school short, and he got squeezed out of the five-round draft. The draft-eligible sophomore owns a .359/.448/.578 (146 wRC+) line with nine homers and nearly as many walks (29) as strikeouts (32) in 50 games this spring. Here are his current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 52
• FanGraphs: Not ranked in top 96
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 10
• MLB.com: No. 36

Thompson is definitely not an unknown. He’s been a guy since high school and the Gators have five players who could go in the top two rounds this summer, so scouts have seen him plenty. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Thompson has long shown a good feel to hit from the left side of the plate with a very good approach. He can use the whole field and drive the ball to the gaps, rarely missing a fastball, though he struggles a bit more with softer stuff. The question in terms of his offensive profile comes in trying to project how much power he’ll have. There’s plenty of raw pop there and a sense there will be strength gains in his 6-foot-3 frame, but he has more of a hit over power approach.

A shortstop in high school, Thompson played right field with Florida as a freshman and saw time there and at third this past fall, but most scouts feel an outfield corner is his best long-term home at the next level.

For what it’s worth, Jim Callis has the Yankees taking Thompson in his most recent mock draft, though it seems more like speculation than a firm report of interest. Callis does say Thompson “continues to climb draft boards” though. He’s had a good spring and improved his stock.

Back in his high school days Thompson put up big exit velocities during showcase events, so the hard-hit ability is in there. The “good approach and good contact skills with untapped power” profile is a hot commodity these days. The Yankees have had success with that profile too. Think Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe, etc.

Would the Yankees use their first round pick on a lefty hitting college kid for a third straight year? Sure, why not? Just take who you think is the best player, and sort them all out later. Thompson is right up the Yankees’ alley as a lefty bat with contact and exit velocity. I suspect we’re going to see him connected to the Yankees more than a few times these next few weeks.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Brady Lail. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a player who got into just one big league game with the Yankees despite being an organizational favorite. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Lail took an unconventional path to the big leagues. He grew up outside Salt Lake City and is one of only 162 players in the 56-year history of the amateur draft to be selected out of a Utah high school. The Yankees took Lail in the 18th round in 2012. Only seven Utah high schoolers have been drafted since Lail (the shortened 2020 and 2021 drafts might have cut into that number.)

"I was getting so much hype during the season, so what really made me disappointed was I didn't get a call (from an interested team) until the ninth round. It kind of made me anxious, and had me wondering what I did. I was kind of upset that I wasn't considered earlier in the draft,” Lail told James Edward about being drafted so late. “... They called and said, 'We drafted you, and we'll do whatever we have to do to make you a Yankee.’”

“Whatever we have to do to make you a Yankee” was a $225,000 signing bonus to buy Lail away from his commitment to Arizona. As you might expect, he was a pure projection pick. A kid with a good frame and athleticism, a feel for pitching, and not much else. Lail was a long-term project who didn’t get out of rookie ball for good until 2014.

After a solid 2014 season split between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa, Lail had his breakout year in 2015, throwing 148.1 innings with a 2.91 ERA split between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. In those 148.1 innings Lail struck out only 85, or 13.8% of the batters he faced. That was enough for Baseball America (subs. req’d) to rank him the No. 22 prospect in the system after the season. A piece of their scouting report:

Evaluators both internally and externally praise Lail for his intelligence on the mound and pitchability. His arsenal starts with a fastball in the 88-92 mph range, with peaks at higher velocities at times, and occasional cutting action. He backs it with a sharp curveball in the mid-70s as well as a changeup. He's still developing his feel on the latter, though it has earned plus grades in the past. Triple-A hitters had little trouble with him. Scouts praise his competitiveness and the way he commands the ball down in the zone. He's got a future in the mold of an Adam Warren

Triple-A was not kind to Lail. From 2016-18, he pitched to a 5.17 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout rate in 268.1 innings at the level, and he spent time in Double-A in each season as well. The Yankees moved Lail to the bullpen permanently in 2018. They never put him on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, though they liked Lail enough to bring him to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee every year from 2017-19.

The start of Lail’s 2019 season was delayed due to injury. He began playing rehab games in late May and joined the Double-A Trenton bullpen in early July. After 28 innings with a 1.93 ERA with the Thunder, he was bumped up to Triple-A, where he allowed five runs in 11 innings in his first six appearances back with the RailRiders. It was more of the same, really.

The 2019 Yankees dealt with one injury after another and, on Aug. 11th, Stephen Tarpley went down with an elbow impingement. The Yankees were short on arms because of injuries and Lail had the ability to go multiple innings, so, to replace Tarpley, Lail was added to the 40-man roster and called up to the big leagues for the first time at age 26, in his eighth pro season.

“(Scranton pitching coach) Tommy Phelps called me on the bullpen phone and said I needed to come down to the dugout,” Lail told Randy Miller about his call up story. “I went down there and they were giving me a hard time. They were making sure that we were out on the line for the national anthem. A couple of us were late to it, so he was like, 'Hey, you've got to make sure you're on time tomorrow. We need you to be a leader out there and get the guys there.' I was like yeah, and he was like, 'Because you're going to have two, a Canadian one and an American one. You're going to Toronto.’ They were giving me a hard time and making me feel like I was in trouble for something and got me freaking out. Then obviously the exciting news.”

Lail met the Yankees in Toronto on Aug. 11th but did not pitch in the 1-0 win that day because Masahiro Tanaka threw eight shutout innings and Aroldis Chapman closed the door. That was the game when Vlad Guerrero Jr. battled Chapman for 13 pitches before grounding into a double play (video). Welcome to the big leagues, Brady. That’s the kinda stuff you see up here.

“It's crazy, it's an honor, but I've played with a bunch of these guys throughout the minor leagues,” Lail told Miller about joining the Yankees. “Walking in here and seeing all the smiles and hugs makes me fit right at home. There's no hiccup there. I feel comfortable already with personalities and finding my place. I'm just hoping that I can contribute to the team as much as I possibly can and help these guys push.”

The Yankees traveled home after the game and Lail made his MLB debut the next day. It was a scheduled bullpen game against the lowly Orioles (the Yankees went 17-2 against the O’s that year) and the offense built an 11-3 lead through six innings to make life easy. Chad Green was the opener and got four outs. Lefty Joe Mantiply then threw three innings as the bulk guy.

Lail replaced Mantiply with a runner on first and one out in the fifth inning, and the Yankees only led 5-3 at the time. They didn’t break the game open until the next inning. Lail got Jonathan Villar to bang into an inning-ending double play on his second MLB pitch, then he went 1-2-3 against Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, and Renato Nunez in the sixth.

The seventh inning was a little messy – Lail walked Jace Peterson, gave up a single to Chance Sisco, then allowed a three-run homer to Hanser Alberto – but by then the Yankees had tacked on a bunch of runs, so it wasn’t an issue. Lail settled down and retired the next three batters. The line in his MLB debut: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR on 46 pitches (video). His family was in attendance too.

“Pretty sure I blacked out. I told myself not to look up because the stands went so high,” Lail said about making his MLB debut (video). “... It makes me emotional (to have my family here). I didn’t know they were coming until they showed up the field.”

Alas and alack, throwing 46 pitches as the last guy in the bullpen usually means a ticket back to Triple-A, and Lail was sent down the day after making his debut (random Yankee Adonis Rosa took his spot on the roster). The day after that, he was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for waiver claim and fellow random Yankee Ryan Dull.

Lail cleared waivers and finished 2019 with Triple-A Scranton as a non-40-man roster player. He became a minor league free agent after the season and eventually signed a minor league deal with the White Sox.  Lail started 2020 at the alternate site, got called up on Aug. 4th when Carlos Rodon got hurt, and threw 1.1 scoreless innings against the Brewers two days later.

Four days after that, the Mariners claimed Lail on waivers, and four days after that he threw three shutout innings against the Astros. And with that Lail, became the first player in a century to play his first three MLB games with three different teams. Only four have done it in the Modern Era. There are some good old timey baseball names on this list:

• Brady Lail, 2019-20: Yankees, White Sox, Mariners
• John Peter, 1915-20: Tigers, Cleveland, Phillies
• Ensign Cottrell, 1911-13: Pirates, Cubs, Athletics
• Mysterious Walker, 1910-13: Reds, Naps, Dodgers

“All I’m looking for in my career is a little stability,” Lail said Greg Johns. “Nothing against the Yankees or White Sox, they’ve given me opportunities. I just didn’t fit in their roles and it’s completely understandable on the business side of things. All I’ve wanted in my career is stability and a chance. I’m very thankful and blessed the Mariners are giving me this opportunity, and hopefully I fit their plans and role for me. I’m excited for what the future holds.”

Lail spent the rest of the shortened pandemic season with the Mariners, allowing eight runs in 15 innings. He started 2021 in Triple-A, got called up to Seattle in May, allowed three runs in two innings across two appearances, then got claimed off waivers by the Phillies. Lail spent the rest of the season in Triple-A, where he allowed 28 runs in 40 innings.

No team came calling over the winter, so Lail started this season with the High Point Rockers of the independent Atlantic League. Coincidentally enough, one of his teammates was Dull, the guy who took his 40-man spot with the Yankees. Lail allowed two earned runs in 19 innings with High Point, then had his contract purchased by the Blue Jays. Somehow still only 28, Lail is currently with Toronto’s Double-A affiliate.

(Lail has one year and seven days of service time, almost all of which came with Seattle in 2020. Because of prorated salaries that season, his career big league earnings are in the $225,000 range. With that much service time his minor league salaries should be over $100,000 for the season though.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says Brett Gardner rejected a $6M deal from the Blue Jays after the lockout, and he declined to pursue an opportunity with the Braves when they checked in last month. Apparently it’s Yankees or nothing for Brett. The entire outfield would probably have to get swallowed by a sinkhole for the Yankees to circle back to Gardner at this point. I look forward to seeing him back at Yankee Stadium, whenever it happens. Old Timers’ Day, ceremonial first pitch in the postseason, whatever … Ben Rortvedt (oblique) started a minor league rehab assignment last weekend, went 2-for-4 with a homer (video) in two games with High-A Tampa, then he had to be shut down with a knee issue. He might need surgery too, Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty. Good, great, fabulous. I assumed the Yankees would option Rortvedt to Triple-A once he was ready to go, so it’s not like he came off the big league roster, but it would be nice to see the guy get healthy and play. Rortvedt is still only 24. There’s a chance he’ll be in pinstripes long-term, but he’s gotta get on the field … Jimmy Cordero has progressed to throwing live batting practice, according to Conor Foley. He can’t be too far away from rehab games. Cordero had Tommy John surgery last March and is an upper-90s sinker guy who was among MLB’s best at suppressing exit velocity before his injury. He might be a 2023 factor more than a 2022 factor (he’ll be under team control for a while through arbitration), but he’s not a run of the mill minor league contract righty reliever. Curious to see what he looks like post-elbow reconstruction, and after the development staff works its magic … And finally, here’s a new one: Jake Sanford, the Yankees’ 2019 third round pick and a 2021 Not Top 30 Prospect, was released last week. I don’t know the full details but he was allegedly involved in some sort of memorabilia scam. Sanford had a good year in 2021, hitting .285/.356/.467 (122 wRC+) with 16 homers in 101 games split between the two Single-A levels. He wasn’t assigned to an affiliate to begin this season and I thought he was injured, but nope. Scamming fans will get you pink slipped pretty quick. Hopefully everyone he ripped off gets repaid in full.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)