March 17th, 2022: Spring Training, Rizzo, Twins Trade, Hot Stove, Mailbag

Here’s a thing: PECOTA projects the Yankees to score the most runs and also allow the fewest runs in the American League this year. Can’t say I buy it (allowing the fewest runs in the league while calling Yankee Stadium and the AL East home feels impossible) but at least one objective projection system loves the roster, and that’s cool. Here is Friday morning’s post Thursday evening before an overnight trade or free agent signing makes it irrelevant.

1. The first Grapefruit League game. The Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game Friday afternoon and we can finally stop talking about lockouts and signings and non-signings, and instead focus on the game on the field. The Yankees will be on the road to play the Pirates and the Pirates are broadcasting the game, so it will be on MLB.tv. The Orioles aren’t broadcasting Saturday’s game, so we’ll be in the dark for that one, then the YES Network will carry Sunday’s Grapefruit League home opener. Hooray.

Here, courtesy of Kristie Ackert, is the travel roster for Friday’s exhibition opener (black means 40-man roster player or non-roster invitee, red means up from minor league camp):

Are you ready for some completely unnecessary Spring Training travel roster analysis? Sure you are. We’ve earned this after sitting through the lockout.

The Yankees are sending five of my top 30 prospects on the trip: Volpe (No. 1), Pereira (No. 6), Wells (No. 8), Wesneski (No. 17), and Marinaccio (No. 20). Barclay and Santos are Not Top 30 Prospects, and Chaparro’s a guy to know. I assume Wesneski is getting the start, though it could be a “Nittoli, you’re a 31-year-old with big league time, so go throw your inning and head on home” situation. Early Spring Training pitcher usage is difficult to predict.

Why is Volpe on the trip and not Oswald Peraza? It’s as simple as Volpe being in minor league camp for a few weeks now while Peraza was a locked out 40-man roster player who only got to camp a few days ago. Volpe’s further along with his game-readiness. That’s all. Plus only one player can play shortstop at a time, you know? Peraza will get into a game soon enough, perhaps as soon as Saturday.

As for the big leaguers, the Yankees are sending the minimum four on the road trip. Gleyber Torres and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are the new double play combination, so they’re staying together (I'm sure DJ LeMahieu will get second base time with Kiner-Falefa too), and Luke Voit will begin his trade showcase. He gets to showcase himself and the Yankees get to showcase him. Voit’s in a tough, awkward spot. The best thing he can do is go rake.

“I had a coach in the minors that always told me that you're always playing for 29 other teams,” Voit told Bryan Hoch about his situation. “I just have to keep doing what I'm doing, be ready for whatever happens. Right now, I'm a New York Yankee.”

Gallo going on the trip is just a matter of someone has to be the fourth big leaguer, and he drew the short straw. Aaron Judge gets preferential treatment as the franchise player, Aaron Hicks and LeMahieu are coming off surgeries, and Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton are former MVPs who don’t have to go on the road for the first spring game. There’s not much more to it than that.

The Yankees aren't sending any Major League pitchers on the trip and Aaron Boone said that was the plan a few days ago. They’re bringing their guys along slowly during his weird spring. Most of the projected Opening Day pitching staff threw live batting practice for the first time within the last 48 hours. I expect to start seeing those guys in Grapefruit League games early next week.

There’s your Grapefruit League opener travel roster analysis. Part of me hopes Volpe goes 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and two errors, just for the overreactions.

2. NYC’s vaccine mandate. I really, really, really hoped to avoid this, but there’s potential for on-field impact, and that I can’t ignore. NYC’s private employer mandate prohibits unvaccinated Yankees (and Mets) from playing in New York. Kyrie Irving has been unable to play for the Nets for the same reason. He can play on the road, but not at home in Brooklyn.

Earlier this week Aaron Boone acknowledged “we still have a few guys at least who are not vaccinated,” and Brendan Kuty reports it’s two players. We don’t know who those players are with 100% certainty, but it doesn’t take a genius to know Aaron Judge is one of them. Judge was asked point blank whether he is vaccinated Tuesday. His answer:

“I’m so focused on just getting through the first game of spring training,” Judge told reporters at a press conference at George M. Steinbrenner Field. “I think we’ll cross that bridge whenever the time comes. But right now, so many things could change. I’m not really too worried about that right now.”

Maybe Judge is vaccinated and wants to keep it private, but vaccinated people usually don’t answer the “are you vaccinated?” question like that. A few hours later, the Yankees released the following statement about the mandate (the Mets declined to comment and apparently a good chunk of their roster is not vaccinated, which seems bad):

“On behalf of the Yankees, Randy Levine is working with City Hall and all other appropriate officials on this matter. We will have no further comment.”

They’re being pretty cavalier about this, no? Judge said he’s “not really too worried about that right now” and the Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo, who wasn’t vaccinated at the end of last season. Either he got vaccinated over the winter, the Yankees are confident they’ll be able to get around the mandate, or they just did something dumb and signed a player who won’t be able to play home games in 2022. I have a hard time believing it’s that last thing.

(For what it’s worth, Rizzo told Randy Miller the mandate “shouldn’t be a problem” during his re-introductory press conference. No idea what that means, exactly, so we’ll see.)

The Yankees have sicced Levine on City Hall and Levine’s usefulness starts and ends with his political connections, so maybe he will get it all worked out. Yankee Stadium is outdoors (the clubhouse, batting cages, weight room, etc. aren’t though) and maybe baseball gets an exemption. Here’s what the mayor said Wednesday:

“We’re going to do an analysis. Baseball season is not tomorrow. It’s not next week. We are going to work this out. We will ensure the safety of New Yorkers without continuing the spread of COVID,” he said Wednesday.

“I’m looking forward to speaking to Major League Baseball, as we put our heads together with our medical team and figure out how we come up with a solution here. That’s my goal. My goal is to come up with a solution where we’re safe, to get our economy back up and operating and don’t change the progress we have made.”

I worry Yankees and MLB brass, a bunch of people who aren’t used to being told no, are assuming they won’t be told no again. There have been calls to let Kyrie play for weeks, and roughly 1,500 city employees were fired not too long ago because they wouldn’t comply with the mandate. The mayor could change his mind at any moment, but I dunno man. This could be a tough sell.

The mandate defines “fully vaccinated” as at least two weeks after the single-dose vaccine or the second shot of the two-dose vaccine. Opening Day is four weeks away. If Judge hasn’t gotten his first shot yet, he can’t get the two-dose vaccine and be ready for Opening Day. He has to get the single-dose at this point. There’s not enough time for both shots.

Players who can’t play due to vaccine mandates can be placed on the restricted list*. They don’t get paid and they don’t accrue service time. Judge would miss 92 games because of mandates (81 home games, two games at Citi Field, and nine games in Toronto) and you know what? That’s enough to push his free agency back. He has several hundred million reasons to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

* The new Collective Bargaining Agreement says teams can put players on the restricted list, not that they automatically go on the restricted list. It’s up to the Yankees. They could leave Judge on the active roster, but then they’d have to play home games shorthanded, and why would they do that?

If Judge is dug in to the point where he’s willing to miss games and delay his free agency, then the Yankees have two options. They could keep him and play him in the 70 road games he’s eligible, and play someone else in the remaining 92 games. 70 games of Judge is better than 162 games of most players, right? Right, as long as he actually plays like Judge and isn’t a lesser player because it’s tough to stay in rhythm with all that downtime (who knows, maybe he’d be even better with all the extra rest).

That’s the first option. The second option is trading him. The best ability is availability, and if Judge chooses to make himself unavailable for 92 of 162 games, then Brian Cashman & Co. wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t explore the market. They’re trying to win the World Series and need to put the best possible team on the field at all times (especially in this division), and that includes postseason home games.

Interested teams would know why Yankees are trading Judge, taking a bite out of their leverage, though I think there’d be enough of a bidding war (Astros? Braves? Dodgers? Giants?) that the Yankees would get a nice return. The math is simple: is 70 games of Judge and 92 games of his replacement better than the Judge trade return and 162 games of someone else? Someone else like, say, Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto? Trade Judge and you’re saving a chunk of money, remember.

“At the end of the day, I want to be here for the guys. Those 10 games (in Toronto) mean a lot. I want to be there for them,” Xander Bogaerts, one of several Red Sox players who got vaccinated recently, told Stephanie Apstein the other day. There is a very easy solution to this problem. The mandate didn’t sneak up on anyone, it’s been in place since December, and I’m sure the Yankees have tried to convince their players to get vaccinated. They can’t force it though.

Maybe the mandate will change in time for Opening Day. My hope is Judge realizes delaying free agency will cost him many millions of dollars, so he gets vaccinated out of self-interest and we never ever have to talk about this again. If he doesn’t and he’s willing to miss games (he’s cutting this very close, so I assume he’s willing to miss games) then the Yankees will have to rethink his short and long-term future with the organization.

3. Rizzo returns. After the Twins trade earlier this week, I said it feels like we’re heading for “re-sign Anthony Rizzo, dump Luke Voit, and call it an offseason,” and the Yankees are one-third of the way there. Rizzo is back on a two-year, $32M contract. It includes an opt out after 2022. Domingo German and his troublesome shoulder were placed on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

“Obviously not only a decorated, great player, but definitely somebody that brings the intangible thing to the table, especially in the room,” Aaron Boone told Mark Didtler after the Yankees re-signed Rizzo.

Rizzo is fine. If you think he’s great, you’re confusing him with the player he was during his peak, and if you think he’s bad, you’re not giving him enough credit. He’s fine. Rizzo has hit .240/.343/.432 (109 wRC+) in over 800 plate appearances the last two seasons, during which the league average first baseman hit .254/.335/.445 (113 wRC+). An average-ish bat and an above-average glove equals a slightly above-average player overall. It’s fine.

The problem is the Yankees have gotten way too comfortable with “fine” the last few years. They came into the offseason needing a shortstop and five – five! – of the best shortstops in baseball were free agents, and somehow the Yankees settled on Isiah Kiner-Falefa. They wanted a first baseman who better fit their lineup and two of the best first baseman in baseball, guys who just so happen to address their needs (lefty bat, better defense, etc.) were available, one via trade and one via free agency, and they chose to bring back Rizzo.

Think about what this offseason could have been for the Yankees compared to what it is. I don’t know how you come away not just disappointed, but outright angry. You’ve got Aaron Judge for only one more guaranteed season and who knows how many more peak years of Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton. Plus going over the luxury tax threshold was going to be unavoidable, so the room was there to spend. This was the offseason to do something big in an effort to get over the hump in the short-term, even if it hurt in the long-term, and instead we get this.

The impact of this offseason will be felt long into the future. It will be years until another 27-year-old star like Carlos Correa and Corey Seager becomes available for nothing but money. The Yankees passed on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and it was a bad decision at the time that manages to look worse with each passing year, and the Yankees just did it again with Correa and Seager. The commitment to the bit is impressive.

I can understand passing on Freddie Freeman. A big contract for a 32-year-old first baseman is loaded with the potential for regret. Not willing to trade prospects for Matt Olson though? The Yankees know they’ve failed to develop their best young players at the MLB level time and time again, right? Why should I think Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe won’t be the next Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, and follow up a ton of immediate success with a backslide?

Through no fault of their own, there’s now a ton of pressure on Volpe and Peraza. The Yankees have used them as an excuse not to spend and if they’re anything less than great, a whole lotta fans will resent them. If you’re reading this, you’re smart enough to know better, but there are a lot of people who are going to consider Volpe* a bust if he’s, say, Brandon Crawford rather than Derek Jeter. Peraza and Volpe can thank the Yankees for the added scrutiny.

* Look, I like Peraza, but why in the world is he untouchable? He’s a middle of the top 100 caliber prospect (No. 55 according to Baseball America) and five years ago the shortstops in the middle of Baseball America’s top 100 list were Franklin Barreto (No. 40), Kevin Newman (No. 55), and Nick Gordon (No. 60). What are we even doing here?

The Yankees came into the winter needing a shortstop and wanting a first baseman who better fit their lineup, looked at all the available All-Star (and in some cases MVP) caliber players who perfectly addressed those very specific needs, and passed on all of them for lesser players. You can either get best players or you can make excuses, and the Yankees are now an excuse-making franchise.

"We do have two incredible prospects (Peraza and Volpe) that I am excited to give a chance to. Things like that play into it,” Hal Steinbrenner told Joon Lee and James Wagner about passing on the best players this offseason. “Obviously what we've been through with COVID the last couple years plays into it. Then there's other factors that have to do with the individual players that play into it … That’s my job every year, to make sure that we’re financially responsible. I’ve got a lot of partners and banks and bondholders and things like that that I answer to. But at the same time, it’s always the goal to win a championship.”

Won’t someone think of the bondholders? I wonder how Dodgers investors feel about Gavin Lux, not too long ago an elite shortstop prospect like Volpe, not having an everyday lineup spot because of Freeman? What about Triple-A first baseman and top 100 prospect Michael Busch? Can you believe they blocked him? How dare they do such a thing. I guess they're going to have to trade him for Luis Castillo or something. The Yankees are getting lapped by other big market teams and Hal thinks I care about his investors. I hope they can put bread on the table tonight.

The organizational complacency I’ve been writing about for three years is still there. The Yankees no longer strive to be great, they strive to be good enough to get the postseason and nothing more. Get to the postseason and you can win the World Series because hey, it’s a crapshoot, right? No, that’s some 2005 thinking right there, but the Yankees are all in on it. The Yankees aren’t the only big market team to have an underwhelming offseason, but other teams having underwhelming offseasons is not an excuse to have one yourself.

The Yankees are good. They will be a good team this season that should contend for a postseason spot into September. The Yankees also aren’t the team they should be. They went into the offseason with very clear needs and chances (plural) to add multiple As, and instead settled for Bs and Cs. It’s the kind of offseason you have when you’re unwilling to trade top prospects or give out a big long-term contract, and cut yourself off from the top of the market. Rizzo is fine. He’s a former great who has been passed by others who do the same things as him, just better. He is the perfect 2022 Yankee.

4. Thoughts on the trade. The last few days have been hectic around baseball – this is so much better than the lockout, isn’t it? – and I finally had a chance to wrap my head around the big Twins trade. The Yankees upgraded defensively at three positions and very likely upgraded offensively at third base. You have to squint your eyes a bit, but there’s some offensive upside with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt beyond what they’ve shown in their careers to date. Let’s get into the trade a little more.

Donaldson’s going to mash …

… as long as he stays healthy, and that’s admittedly a big question given his age (36) and history of calf injuries. Last season was his worst since 2018 and his second worst as a full-time player, yet he still hit .247/.352/.475 (124 wRC+) with 26 homers. It helps when you're starting from an MVP level baseline. Donaldson hit the crap out of the ball too:

Donaldson has run league average strikeout rates just about his entire career (21.0% in 2021), his walk rates are in the mid-teens every year (13.6% in 2021), and he hits the ball exceptionally hard. His average, max, and top 45% exit velocities still rank among the best in baseball and there have been no signs of decline in his hard-hit ability even as he’s entered his mid-30s. This is a “stay healthy and he’ll rake” situation like Giancarlo Stanton. Donaldson’s measurables are all there. There are no significant red flags.

Gary Sanchez has the talent to be a devastating hitter but isn’t that nearly often enough. Gio Urshela was pretty great from 2019-20 and his upside is getting back to that level in 2022. Those dudes will always be cool with me, but Donaldson is a much better bet to provide great offense this season. I don’t think it’s all that close either, and the Yankees need the offense.

The numbers say Donaldson was okay at third base last year (+1 DRS and +1 OAA) and I think you have to consider league average defense a win in 2022. The numbers never liked Urshela’s defense as much as the eye test and it’s possible (I don’t 100% buy it, but it’s possible) Donaldson is an upgrade in the field, even if we don’t see as many spectacular plays. Gio did have a knack for the highlight reel.

We’ve seen players on the wrong side of 35 go from productive one year and toast the next (see: Soriano, Alfonso) and that’s the risk at Donaldson’s age. There’s nothing in his contact quality or approach that suggests a decline is coming though. He swings at the right pitches, hits the snot out of the ball, and there hasn’t been an increase in strikeouts or ground balls (tell-tale signs of a slowing bat). Donaldson’s bat has aged well to date.

I like the edge Donaldson brings (if nothing else, it will be nice to see a Yankee who doesn’t look like he’s just going through motions), and I think he’ll be a productive hitter when healthy. The defense? Eh, it should be okay, though defense doesn’t tend to age well. In the end, it comes down to health. Keep Donaldson on the field and I think the bat makes him a multi-win upgrade over what the Yankees had at third base, and I say that as someone who loves Gio. If Donaldson gets hurt and misses much of the season, then the Yankees will be in worse shape than they were last year. Obvious statement is obvious.

Stanton in the outfield

Donaldson started 91 games at third base and 34 games at DH last season. 27 of the 34 DH starts came in the final two months, when he was dealing with a nagging hamstring issue and after Nelson Cruz was traded away. Donaldson turned 36 in December. Nagging injuries will happen and DH time comes with the territory. The Yankees knew that going into the trade.

Does Donaldson mean Stanton will see more time in the outfield? It has to, right? That allows the Yankees to get DJ LeMahieu in the lineup at third base and give Aaron Hicks more rest in an effort to keep him healthy. Expecting Hicks to play 140 games is unrealistic, but maybe you can get 100 games out of him with more off-days? How about this playing time allocation:

• Donaldson: 50 games at DH and 90 games at 3B
• Stanton: 70 games at DH and 70 games in OF

Last season Stanton played 139 games and Donaldson played 135, so I think 140 games is a reasonable target for each this year. If you get more, great. If you get less, then you deal with it and adjust. We know the Yankees see the DH spot as a way to keep players on the field. In the past, it was primarily Stanton. Now they need to think about Donaldson too.

My hypothetical playing time allocation leaves 42 DH games for everyone else, which is three every two weeks. Given how entrenched Stanton has been at DH the last few years, that seems like enough. Figure Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, and Anthony Rizzo (and Hicks?) get a DH day every now and then. I don’t think they need more than that.

“A decent amount,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin when asked how often Stanton will play the outfield. “It obviously went really well last year. It was something he wanted to do. I think he was probably even pleasantly surprised how well his body was responding.”

Point is, Donaldson’s age and history of lower body injuries suggest he’ll need DH time, and that means putting Stanton in the outfield. The Yankees finally caved and put Stanton in the outfield in the second half last year (he started 26 of his final 60 games in the outfield), and he seem poised to do it more often this year. Now we know who will get the open DH starts.

“A couple times a week is good,” Stanton told Martin when asked how often he’d like to play the outfield. “Give everyone a blow, whoever needs it, and have a good rotation out there. I enjoyed it. It kept me moving around. It wasn’t kinda the start-stop routine of DHing.”

(Based on last year and the Yankees’ years-long preference for top notch left field defense, the probable alignment will be Gallo in left, Judge in center, and Stanton in right when Stanton plays the outfield and Donaldson is the DH.)

Kiner-Falefa at short

I don’t have too much to say about Kiner-Falefa. He will be a fan favorite because he has an easy to like personality, he puts the ball in play a ton and goes on BABIP hot streaks, plays flashy defense, and runs well. Think Ronald Torreyes, but a grade or two better across the board. Kiner-Falefa has been an empty .270 batting average guy who will look better than he actually is (23 home runs in 3,625 professional plate appearances!).

Kiner-Falefa has some similarities to Didi Gregorius when the Yankees acquired him. Sir Didi was a largely unheralded glove-first guy who the Yankees believed had more to give offensively despite poor exit velocities simply because he made a ton of contact. That’s Kiner-Falefa, though he’ll be at the platoon disadvantage more often as a righty hitter.

The one thing I do like is Kiner-Falefa is a two-year addition. The Yankees can keep him as an arbitration-eligible player in 2023, which is good because next offseason’s free agent shortstop class absolutely stinks:

Tim Anderson (30) – $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Elvis Andrus (34) – $15MM club option
Xander Bogaerts (30) – can opt out of remaining three years, $60MM
Didi Gregorius (33)
Jose Iglesias (33)
Andrelton Simmons (33)
Dansby Swanson (29)
Trea Turner (30)

Anderson’s option will get picked up, and if the Yankees aren’t willing to pay 27-year-old Carlos Correa, why would we expect them to pay 30-year-old Turner (or Bogaerts)? Next offseason will not be a good offseason to need a shortstop. At minimum, the Yankees can avoid that free agent mess because Kiner-Falefa will remain under team control.

For better or worse, the Yankees have all their eggs in the Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe baskets. Kiner-Falefa is versatile enough to move into a utility role when they’re ready. If that’s this summer sometime, great. If it’s not until August 2023, then that’s okay too. The Yankees can ride with Kiner-Falefa at short for the time being. He buys the kids some time.

Perhaps the Yankees can get Kiner-Falefa to take his offense to another level the way they did with Urshela or even an established big leaguer like Cameron Maybin. It’s been two years since they actually did that with someone though, so I dunno. Much like Rizzo at first, Kiner-Falefa at short is fine. Nothing more, nothing less.

The catching "platoon"

Ben Rortvedt has about four weeks to learn an entirely new pitching staff before Opening Day. It won’t be easy, but that’s the position, and these days catchers wear those wrist bands to make life a little easier. You go into the dugout between innings, prepare for the next 3-4 batters, then go back to work. These four weeks are about building a relationship with the pitching staff.

“Just come in ready to go, learn the pitching staff as much as I can, work hard and let things work out as they should,” Rortvedt told Brendan Kuty earlier this week. “It is what it is. I’m excited for it. It would be the same thing with the Twins getting to know everyone else, new faces coming in. It’s going to be a challenge but it’s a challenge that I look forward to.”

Rortvedt is a lefty hitter and Kyle Higashioka is a righty, so they’re natural platoon partners. It’s never that simple though, is it? Higashioka will catch Gerrit Cole no matter what, and the Yankees did some weird things with personal catchers last year. For much of the summer Higashioka caught Cole and Corey Kluber, and Gary Sanchez caught Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, and Domingo German, and there was no deviation.

I can absolutely see a scenario in which Higashioka catches Cole, Taillon, and Luis Severino while Rortvedt catches Montgomery and Nestor Cortes because Boone believes the lefties think along the same wavelength or something nonsensical like that. Higashioka being Cole’s personal catcher means a straight lefty/righty platoon won’t happen. It’ll be at least slightly more complicated, possibly much more complicated for no good reason.

My take: Rortvedt is seven years younger than Higashioka and under team control twice as long, so he should be the priority. At the same time, I don’t expect either guy to be all that good, so just ride the hot hand. Rortvedt should be prepared to catch Cole just in case a) Higashioka gets hurt, and/or b) he really takes off and becomes a guy you want in the lineup everyday. This catching situation is poised to aggravate me all year.

On Rortvedt’s bat

I have no inside knowledge here but I am certain the Yankees acquired Rortvedt with the thought there’s more in his bat than he’s shown to date. He went 15-for-89 (.169) with 29 strikeouts and six walks in his MLB debut last year, but I’m not going to hold that against him. That first taste of the big leagues can be difficult, especially for a catcher with so much other stuff on his plate.

In those 89 at-bats Rortvedt did manage to hit a ball 111 mph (111.4 mph to be exact), something Jose Altuve, Austin Meadows, Buster Posey, and Marcus Semien combined to do zero times all last season. I know we’re oversaturated with exit velocity, but it matters and you can’t fake it, and at least once in his life Rortvedt showed he has the strength to really drive the baseball. It's in there somewhere.

Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about Rortvedt’s bat last Spring Training:

Rortvedt’s ball/strike recognition and strength-driven raw power give him a chance to play a big league role if the two can work together. He can hit for power on pitches up and away from him (which he takes the other way), and, when he can catch up to them, on pitches down-and-in (which he golfs out to his pull side). Right now he looks more like a backup, but Rortvedt has tweaked his swing a bit since high school and perhaps more can be done so he’s not driving so much into the ground.

The “strength-driven raw power” line makes sense when you remember Rortvedt is built like a tank. Anyway, his batted ball profile in his limited big league action last season jibes with that scouting report perfectly. Rortvedt got to a lot of pitches up in the zone and golfed a few down in the zone. Here are the pitch locations of his balls in play:

The horizontal sliver of white through the middle of the zone is kinda funny. Rortvedt can get to pitches at the letters and pitches at the knees, but pitches at the belt? Nope. It’s a tiny sample and I don’t want to belabor this. I just thought it was neat the scouting report and batted ball profile match so well. Rortvedt can hit pitches up and down but not middle, apparently. Surely that’s fixable, right?

Around the pandemic season Rortvedt hit .245/.329/.382 (101 wRC+) at Double-A and Triple-A and that ain’t great, even for a glove-first catcher prospect. His ground ball rate has hovered right around 50% every season since he split 2018 at the two Single-A levels. If the Yankees believe there is more in Rortvedt’s bat to come, they’re in the minority. We haven’t even seen a token “other teams think the Yankees got a steal” report to placate fans.

Rortvedt has some hard-hit ability and strike zone knowledge, and the Yankees will try to get more out of his bat the way they got more out of Hoy Jun Park, Diego Castillo, Oswaldo Cabrera, and others last year. League average offense would be very valuable with Rortvedt’s glove. Whether the Yankees can unlock it is another matter. I wish the Yankees weren’t doing the “maybe we can make him better” thing as Plan A at such an important position at a time when they can’t afford to punt any lineup spots, but this is the plan.

The need for a bench bat

Maybe Rortvedt really is a breakout hitter in waiting. Would be neat. I think the Yankees have to prepare for him and Higashioka to play to their projections though. Here’s ZiPS:

• Higashioka: .206/.258/.408 (79 wRC+)
• Rortvedt: .206/.262/.351 (69 wRC+)

Catchers collectively hit .229/.305/.391 (89 wRC+) last year and it was their best 162-game season since hitting .246/.315/.410 (90 wRC+) in 2017. Catchers are very bad nowadays and the Rortvedt/Higashioka duo still manages to project well south of the positional average. There’s a minimum acceptable standard of offense and they don’t project to meet it, even at catcher.

The Yankees have to be prepared to pinch-hit for these two late in close games. They shouldn’t hit in high leverage spots until they earn the opportunity. This means three things. One, the Yankees need a viable bench bat. Maybe this is where Luke Voit (or Miguel Andujar?) fits? He can be the designated “pinch-hitter for the catcher” while getting spot starts at first and DH.

Two, Boone has to actually use that viable bench bat. To his credit, he often pinch-hit Sanchez for Higashioka late in close games the last two years, though that was a one-for-one move. Sanchez pinch-hit and remained in the game to catch. We’re talking about a three-player move here. The starting catcher, the pinch-hitter, then the backup catcher. Burning three players in one move shouldn’t be an issue, though Boone isn’t exactly a master tactician.

And three, the Yankees have to be willing to use Kiner-Falefa as their third catcher. He has catching experience! He caught 73 games with Texas. Most managers won’t pinch-hit for their starting catcher because they’re worried the backup will get hurt later in the game and put them in a bind behind the plate. Kiner-Falefa is a highly qualified emergency catcher who should make Boone comfortable pinch-hitting for his starting catcher (and even his backup later in the game!).

“I never caught in my life until Double-A, then I caught the very next year in the big leagues,” Kiner-Falefa told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “They threw me in the fire. I don’t think people give me enough credit for that. It is what it is. I’m here, I’m a shortstop.”

Pinch-hitting is not easy, and I’m not advocating for Kiner-Falefa to do anything more than catch a few innings in an emergency, but the stars are aligned for the Yankees to aggressively pinch-hit for their catchers in high leverage situations. Highashioka and Rortvedt leave a lot to be desired at the plate, the Yankees have an impactful bench bat (in theory, if Voit remains), and they have an actual third catcher for emergencies. They should pinch-hit for their catchers liberally in 2022.

5. Hot stove thoughts. Been another busy week in the hot stove league, and we’re still waiting for Carlos Correa and Trevor Story (and Kenley Jansen) to sign. Let’s dig into the offseason’s latest as we await the first Grapefruit League game.

Blue Jays get Chapman

The Blue Jays have the prospects and payroll room to do something big and it was only a matter of time until they replaced Marcus Semien. They did that something big earlier this week when they sent four prospects to the Athletics for Matt Chapman. Here is the Yankees’ equivalent of the trade package, since I know everyone is wondering:

• RHP Gunner Hoglund: RHP Luis Gil?
• LHP Zach Logue: LHP JP Sears
• IF Kevin Smith: IF Oswaldo Cabrera
• LHP Kirby Snead: RHP Stephen Ridings

The Yankees don’t have a good equivalent to Hoglund, who was a projected top 10 pick in last year’s draft before having Tommy John surgery and falling to the No. 19 pick. The other guys are pretty spot on, I think. It’s a classic “three guys who can be on the MLB roster tomorrow” Oakland trade package, with a high upside lottery ticket in Hoglund.

Chapman has gotten worse each year since 2018 and he strikes out a ton (for what it’s worth, Toronto has had success getting guys to cut down on strikeouts, most notably Teoscar Hernandez), but considering the Blue Jays are going from Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal at third to Chapman, yeah, he’s a big upgrade over what they had penciled in. Defensively, if nothing else.

I was worried Toronto would use their prospects and payroll space to trade for Jose Ramirez (Ken Rosenthal says they’re still after him) or Ketel Marte, so in that sense, Chapman is a “good” outcome for the Yankees because he’s not as good as those two. Still, he’s an upgrade and one of the Yankees’ rivals got better. The Blue Jays smell the blood in the AL East waters and are going for the kill.

Yankees in on Manaea, Montas

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams in on A’s pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. The Athletics are obviously selling and Manaea (a rental) and Montas (two years of control) are their best remaining trade chips. The Red Sox, Royals, Twins, and White Sox have also been connected to those two. I’m certain other teams have checked in as well.

I wrote about Manaea and Montas as trade targets a few weeks back. Manaea’s a tough one. Is he good? I mean, he’s obviously good, but how good? After all these years in the league I feel like we still don’t know the answer definitively. For what it’s worth, Montas fits the Yankees’ preferred profile as a high velocity sinker/changeup (splitter, really) pitcher. Manaea is a sinker/changeup guy too, but is more low-90s than mid-to-upper-90s.

The Chris Bassitt trade set the market for Manaea. One top 10 and one top 20 prospect should do the trick. Matt Chapman and Matt Olson were each traded with two years of control and each fetched four prospects. The breakdown of the eight prospects the A’s received:

• Last year’s first rounder: RHP Gunnar Hoglund and RHP Ryan Cusick
• Can play in MLB in 2022: C Shea Langeliers, LHP Zach Logue, OF Cristian Pache, IF Kevin Smith, LHP Kirby Snead
• Low minors long shot: RHP Joey Estes

Like Chapman and Olson, Montas has two years of control remaining, and using those trades as a guideline suggest a Montas trade package could include some combination of these players:

• Last year’s first rounder: SS Trey Sweeney
• Can play in MLB in 2022: IF Oswaldo Cabrera, RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Luis Gil, OF Estevan Florial, OF Brandon Lockridge, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Greg Weissert
• Low minors long shot: RHP Yoendrys Gomez, RHP Matt Sauer, LHP T.J. Sikkema, and many others

Oakland has 38 players on their 40-man roster, so trading them three 40-man guys for Montas wouldn’t require the A’s to release others (not that some of the guys on their 40-man would be difficult to part with). Does Cabrera, Gil, Sweeney, and a reliever like Marinaccio, Ridings, or Weissert get it done? Would it make sense for the Yankees?

I say yes. Sweeney is good prospect, but the Yankees are loaded with high-end shortstops, several of whom are closer to the big leagues. Trade from that shortstop depth to address weaknesses elsewhere. Absolutely. Montas is very likely to be more effective than Gil the next two seasons, two seasons the Yankees should try to maximize given the age of their core. Cabrera and the relievers are nice depth pieces who shouldn’t stand in the way of anything that improves the big league roster meaningfully. Here’s what the Trade Values site says, if you’re curious:

The package is light, at least based on that site’s surplus value calculations, which a) teams don't follow, and b) ignore the “the A’s are cheap and want to dump salary” factor. Montas is really good and would be a two-year addition at a time when a) Domingo German’s shoulder is achy, b) Jameson Taillon is coming off ankle surgery, c) Luis Severino has barely pitched the last three seasons, and d) Taillon and Severino (if his club option is declined) can be free agents after 2022. He fits well.

One more name we have to discuss: Sean Murphy. I did not include the A’s catcher in my trade targets post a few weeks ago because … I don’t know why. I think because I assumed Oakland would keep him and build around him? They still might, but when they’re tearing things down like they are, the Yankees have to ask. Murphy has four years of team control remaining and would be an upgrade over the Kyle Higashioka/Ben Rortvedt platoon this year and moving forward.

Murphy, 27, hit .237/.355/.491 (133 wRC+) from 2019-20, but that was a September call up in 2019 and the shortened season in 2020. In 2021, he hit .216/.306/.405 (99 wRC+) with 17 home runs, and I think that better represents his current talent level. It was Murphy’s first time going through the 162-game grind at the MLB level and it showed in the numbers: 107 wRC+ in the first half and 85 wRC+. It’s a brutal position. Here’s the Statcast profile:

Murphy has some hard-hit ability and he rates very well as a framer (and about average at blocking and throwing), and that’s a good starting point given the current state of catching. If you didn’t like Gary Sanchez, you probably won’t like Murphy, but the bar he has to clear is “better than Higashioka and Rortvedt,” and he clears it. The Yankees are said to have interest in Manaea and Montas. I hope they’ve asked about Murphy too.

Brewers and Pirates sign DHs

Earlier this week the Brewers signed random Yankee Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates signed Dan Vogelbach to one-year contracts to fill their DH vacancies. McCutchen gets $8.5M to lengthen the lineup of the defending NL Central champions. Vogelbach gets $1M guaranteed because the Pirates have to put someone at DH.

I bring this up because the Brewers and Pirates stood out as potential landing spots for Luke Voit and Miguel Andujar. Voit would’ve helped a Brewers team still lacking over the fence power, and Andujar would’ve been a nice “buy low and see what you get” player for Pittsburgh. (Given what they gave Vogelbach and how they've operated in general, I doubt the Pirates had interest in Voit at his projected $5.4M salary.)

So, two fewer potential landing spots for Voit and Andujar. One team I’ve been sleeping on as a Voit possibility: Phillies. They signed Kyle Schwarber earlier this week, but they can put Schwarber in left and Voit at DH. As I understand it, the plan is Schwarber at DH with some combination of Odubel Herrera, Adam Haseley, and Matt Vierling in left and center fielders. They can do better than that. Put Schwarber in left and Voit would improve their lineup and DH outlook, and not by a little either.

Matt Gelb (subs. req’d) says ownership won’t let Dave Dombrowski exceed the $230M luxury tax threshold. FanGraphs estimates Philadelphia’s current luxury tax payroll at $217.2M, so they have wiggle room, but not too much. Voit in a first base/DH timeshare with Rhys Hoskins, who had season-ending abdominal surgery last August, at $5.4M or so could be appealing.

The Yankees did background work on Philadelphia’s farm system prior to the Donny Sands/Nick Nelson trade in November, which could expedite things. In addition to the Phillies, the suddenly Fernando Tatis Jr.-less Padres could work as a Voit trade partner (if they’re willing to put Wil Myers in the outfield). The Rockies are weird and could get involved. Either way, possible Voit (and Andujar) trade partners are dwindling.

Giants sign Boyd

The Giants signed lefty Matt Boyd to a one-year deal worth $5.2M the other day, and he can earn another $2.3M in incentives. Boyd is a spin rate/whiff rate guy who hasn’t been all that good since the first half of 2019, and he had flexor tendon surgery in September. He’s not expected back until the middle of the season, perhaps after the All-Star break.

I bring this up because, now that Spring Training has begun, you can sign an injured player like Boyd and put him directly on the 60-day injured list. Sign him in the offseason and you have to juggle the 40-man roster. Now that’s not a concern. The Yankees are already over the luxury tax threshold, right? Spend a few million bucks and stash some pitching depth for later in the year.

There are two obvious candidates for such a deal: Danny Duffy and Trevor Rosenthal. Duffy had flexor tendon surgery in October and is expected back in June or July. Rosenthal had hip surgery last summer and is expected back sometime before the All-Star break. Others like Chris Archer (thoracic outlet syndrome) and Julio Teheran (shoulder) are healthy enough that they’ve thrown showcases in recent weeks, so I assume they’re not 60-day injured list candidates.

Duffy is the guy to target. I know sinkers and changeups are the thing now, but he has a four-seamer that grades out insanely well analytically (spin, extension, angle, etc.). He can miss bats with it up in the zone, he has experience starting and relieving, and he’s pitched in the postseason and World Series. Give him a contract in the Boyd range and put him on the 60-day injured list, and see if you can help you later. Sound good? Get on it, Yankees.

LaMarre returns

Welcome back, Ryan LaMarre. The Yankees re-signed the speedy outfielder to a minor league contract and added him (and Ronald Guzman and Phillip Evans) to the non-roster list. In theory, LaMarre will compete with Tim Locastro and Ender Inciarte (and Estevan Florial) for the fourth outfielder’s job, at least until the Yankees get around to re-signing Brett Gardner.

LaMarre, 33, spent some time with the Yankees as a COVID replacement last season and went 4-for-21 (.190) with two homers. He was one of many Triple-A Scranton players to have a career year (why do you think Casey Dykes was promoted from Triple-A hitting coach to MLB assistant hitting coach?), authoring a .277/.379/.447 (125 wRC+) line in 60 games.

If the Yankees don’t re-sign Gardner, I would assume Locastro has a leg up on the backup outfielder’s job seeing how he received a Major League deal and LaMarre and Inciarte did not. Florial needs to go to Triple-A and all signs point to him being flanked by LaMarre, Inciarte, and Michael Beltre in Scranton's outfield. At least until Gardner is re-signed, of course.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB announced the updated regular season schedule earlier this week. The Yankees will make up their four-game Rangers series at the end of the season, during the three extra days being added to the schedule. As for the three-game Astros series, they’ll play one game on June 30th and a doubleheader on July 21st. I mentioned June 30th as a possible makeup date last week. July 21st was supposed to be the final day of the All-Star break, so the Yankees have a short break this year. These are all road games for the Yankees, which is quite inconvenient, but what can you do? Bad schedule luck this season … Daniel Port ran the numbers on batting Joey Gallo leadoff. He goes into the gory math, but the gist is Gallo’s walks are maximized in the leadoff spot and the negative impact of his strikeouts is lessened because he’d hit with fewer men on base. It’s lessened so much that it makes up for turning a bunch of homers into solo shots. I’ll add that Gallo is a great baserunner too. He doesn’t steal bases but he’s excellent at going first-to-third, taking the extra base, etc. That could have heightened value in front of the mashers rather than in front of the bottom half of the lineup. We’ve seen Luke Voit hit leadoff a few times the last few years and Anthony Rizzo hit leadoff in the Wild Card Game, so the Yankees aren’t against unconventional leadoff hitters. My guess is they want Gallo to break up the righties in the middle of the lineup and won’t do it. Fun idea though … The World Baseball Classic is back. MLB announced its international events schedule earlier this week and the WBC will return next spring. As always, the Yankees have several players who will be of interest to their countries. Rizzo has played for Italy in past WBCs, Nicaragua will beg Jonathan Loaisiga to play, etc. Here’s the international schedule:

No word on which teams are going to these events just yet. Every few years MLB sends an All-Star team overseas for a tour after the season (they last did it in 2018) and that’s what those postseason games in Korea, Taiwan, and Latin America are. They’re not going to play actual postseason games in other countries. It’ll be an All-Star tour. Those are neat. I hope the Yankees get to go on a few of these trips. They’re fun and they break up the monotony of the long season … And finally, league names are back in the minors. No more Triple-A East or Low-A Southeast, etc. MLB reinstated the historical league names earlier this week. Here’s where the Yankees’ affiliates play:

• Triple-A Scranton: International League
• Double-A Somerset: Eastern League
• High-A Hudson Valley: South Atlantic League
• Low-A Tampa: Florida State League

Same names as before, though the Sally League and FSL switched levels. I’m honestly surprised MLB didn’t sell the naming rights to the minor leagues. I thought we’d get the Triple-A Pepsi International League presented by Camping World or something. Glad the old names are back. Much better than the charmless league names they used last year.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Steve asks: The Yankees made a bunch of trades last offseason clearing a bunch of players that were going to be Rule 5 eligible. Now that there is no draft this year, and hindsight always being 20/20, any chance the Yankees regret that strategy? Not because the guys they acquired underperformed, but because they gave up decent prospects.

Looking over the names, I don’t think so. The Yankees traded 10 prospects at last year’s trade deadline and six were eligible for either the Rule 5 Draft or minor league free agency this offseason. The six:

• IF Diego Castillo and IF Hoy Jun Park (Clay Holmes trade)
• 2B Ezequiel Duran and RHP Glenn Otto (Joey Gallo and Joely Rodriguez trade)
• RHP Janson Junk and RHP Elvis Peguero (Andrew Heaney trade)

Heaney stunk with the Yankees, but the Yankees have plenty of Junk and Peguero types in the system, so I don’t think they regret trading them. Those are exactly the kinda prospects (swingman/fifth starters and up-and-down relievers) the Yankees should never hesitate to trade. Just trade them for someone better than Heaney next time.

Castillo and Park were non-prospects at this time last year, then they had breakout years as they approached minor league free agency. We have to assume they would’ve looked for a team that offered a better big league opportunity when they hit free agency, and seeing how Pittsburgh put them on the 40-man roster, that opportunity was going to be out there. This isn’t a “the Yankees should have kept them because there was no Rule 5 Draft” situation because they were minor league free agents. There was no keeping them without putting them on the 40-man. (The Yankees could have put them on the 40-man and traded them like Donny Sands. I’d rather have Holmes in July than wait for a trade in November.)

Duran was a top 10-ish prospect in the system at the time of the trade and definitely would have been added to the 40-man after the season. The Yankees didn’t release Chris Gittens until a few days after the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. I think they simply would have released him sooner and added Duran to the 40-man rather than, say, leave Ron Marinaccio exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Otto is in the same swingman/fifth starter bucket as Junk, though he carries more injury risk.

Keeping Duran as a non-40-man prospect for an extra year would have been nice, but the Yankees did trade him for Gallo, and Gallo’s pretty good. Six of my top 14 prospects are middle infielders. It’s a position of depth in the system, so trade some dudes. The Yankees did that with Duran. I don’t think the lack of a Rule 5 Draft changes how they feel about last year’s deadline because the eligible guys they traded weren’t top prospects other than Duran, and they turned him into Gallo. It’s not worth losing sleep over the Junks and Ottos of the world.

Alessandro asks: Looking over this roster, is this going to be one of the least fun teams in recent memory? A lot of the guys with personality are gone (Didi, Gio, soon Voit), and we’re an older team. This team doesn’t *feel* familiar…. Gone are the days of the baby bombers

Winning will make any team real fun, real quick, but yeah I am not overly enthused. Last season Brian Cashman called the Yankees “unwatchable,” so they brought in Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to solve that? And re-signed Anthony Rizzo? You had all lockout to think about this stuff and that’s what you came up with? Really?

Other than winning and super obvious stuff like Giancarlo Stanton hitting 60 homers, here are the top five things that would make this coming season fun to me:

1. Luis Severino staying healthy and having a monster season.
   
   (big gap)
   
2. Miguel Andujar finding a niche and reverting back to Miggy Missiles circa 2018.
3. Nestor Cortes funkballing his way through 30 above-average starts.
4. Gleyber Torres rediscovering his 2019 power strike.
5. Joey Gallo pulling a Russell Branyan and hitting a ball into the fourth deck.

The return of 2017-18 Severino, as unlikely as it may be after all those injuries, would make me very excited every fifth day no matter what happens the other four. Otherwise the 2022 Yankees feel more like the 2005-08 teams that were just trying to stay relevant than the 2018-19 teams that were trying to win a dang World Series.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)