January 14th, 2022: Future of the Outfield, Banuelos, Minor League Deals, Mailbag

My current offseason binge watch is The Americans (good show, I give it an 8/10) and an episode I watched the other day gave me the perfect screen grab to describe my lockout mood (not a spoiler, don’t worry):

Sick of the lockout, you guys. Anyway, the international signing period opens tomorrow. Actual things are going to happen. The Yankees have a $5.18M bonus pool according to Ben Badler, and most of it is going to Roderick Arias. If nothing else, the kid can pimp a damn dinger based on this video. If the signing period was going to be postponed like the Major League Rule 5 Draft, we would have heard by now, so it looks like the show will go on as scheduled. That’s good. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. The future at each position: outfield. The lockout continues and all the downtime got me thinking about the future of the Yankees. We tackled the infield earlier this week, and next week we’ll get to the pitching staff. Today we’re going to look at the outfield, which is a) inarguably the team’s strength on the position player side, and b) uncertain beyond 2022. Let’s dive in.

Left field

Incumbents: Joey Gallo (free agent after 2022), Aaron Hicks (signed through 2025)
Notable prospects: Elijah Dunham, Ryder Green

Clint Frazier wore the “left fielder of the future” label for 4-5 years, but that didn’t work out, and it’s unclear how the Yankees will proceed after 2022. Gallo is locked into left field this coming season – I’d love to see the Yankees move him to center, though they’ve been hesitant to do that – and what happens after that is a mystery.

Hicks is currently penciled in as the 2022 center fielder even though he’s had injury problems the last few years, and he turns 33 in October. That’s usually the age when center fielders move to a corner. Here is the games played in center leaderboard among players age 32+ the last five seasons:

1. Lorenzo Cain: 349
2. Jarrod Dyson: 269
3. Brett Gardner: 264
4. Starling Marte: 119
5. Denard Span: 119

Rajai Davis (116) and Adam Jones (106) are the only other 32-plus-year-olds over 100 games in center since 2017. Cain is an outlier given how well he’s played the position into his mid-30s. Otherwise center field is a young player’s position and Hicks is no longer a young player. There is no way the Yankees gave Hicks that contract expecting him to play center the entire time, so Gallo in left in 2022 with Hicks in left in 2023 and beyond is plausible.

One long shot: Miguel Andujar. Miggy Missiles has played more left field (63 games) than third and first and DH combined (33 games) the last three years. He’s not a good left fielder (who is with only 63 games of experience?), but the Yankees seem to consider him a left fielder, and it’s not completely impossible Andujar hits his way into the lineup full-time. Do I think it will happen? No, sadly, and I love Miggy. But the chances it happens are not zero.

The good news is there is never a shortage of quality corner outfielders in free agency. The bad news is the Yankees place a premium on left field defense because left field is huge in Yankee Stadium – that’s why Gallo is staying there and why Gardner played there much more than center in his career – which limits their search a bit. A pure bat like, say, Kyle Schwarber, is an unlikely signing.

Next offseason’s free agent class offers the usual mix of good bat/good glove (Gallo, Mitch Haniger, Brandon Nimmo), good bat/bad glove (Michael Brantley, Robbie Grossman), and bad bat/good glove (Kevin Kiermaier, Manny Margot) outfielders. Trade candidates are always plentiful (Max Kepler?). You don’t have to try too hard to find a new corner outfielder.

Finding the right corner outfielder can be easier said than done. Remember all the left fielders the Yankees cycled through during the late-1990s dynasty? Gerald Williams, Tim Raines, Chad Curtis, Ricky Ledee, Chuck Knoblauch, David Justice, etc. Comparatively, the Yankees have had nice stability in left field the last decade or so thanks to Gardner.

On the prospect side, Dunham and Green are the two best true corner outfield prospects in the system. Of course center fielders like Jasson Dominguez and Estevan Florial could wind up in a corner, but for the sake of discussion, let’s stick with corner outfield prospects. Dunham and Green both spent 2021 in Single-A and are unlikely to be MLB ready for Opening Day 2023. They’re good prospects who won’t be able to step in to replace Gallo next year.

Post-2022 outlook: Re-signing Gallo is a possibility. It would likely only happen if the Yankees are unable to re-sign Aaron Judge, but it’s possible. I think the most likely scenario is Gallo in left in 2022, then Hicks with a platoon partner in left in 2023 and beyond. Dunham or Green (or Dominguez or Florial) could be a factor then too. Maybe Andujar hits on that long shot and enters the left field mix as well. Crazier things have happened.

Given the plethora of corner outfielders on the trade and free agent markets each year, I’m not too worried about left field long-term. There are always candidates – good candidates – to play this position. Picking the right one isn’t always easy, but it’s not because there’s a shortage of options. For now, it’s Gallo and Hicks. The Yankees will change course once a prospect forces their hand or Gallo/Hicks play their way out of the lineup.

Center field

Incumbents: Aaron Hicks (signed through 2025)
Notable prospects: Jasson Dominguez, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira

Early on in the offseason Brian Cashman said the Yankees will “evaluate” center field, and it’s impossible to know what he meant. Would the Yankees sincerely look at center field alternatives to Hicks, or did he say that because he says that about almost every position every offseason? I think it was the latter. The austerity era Yankees aren’t giving up on Hicks with four years to go on his (affordable) contract without seeing what he looks like post-wrist surgery first.

I am certain the Yankees would love Florial to force the issue and become a center field option in 2023, when Hicks could theoretically move to left to replace Gallo. Florial struggled in Triple-A last year though (.218/.315/.404 and 93 wRC+ with 30.9% strikeouts), partly because the team shortsightedly promoted him after nine Double-A games. That said, 2022 is Florial’s final minor league option year. It’s big leagues or waivers come 2023, so ready or not, I believe he will be at least the fourth outfielder a year from now. The Yankees hope he can be more.

Dominguez and Pereira are years away from the big leagues – Dominguez has already slowed down a bit, which isn’t surprising given his fullback build, so he may be headed for a corner spot long-term – and won’t be 2023 options. They have a chance to be really, really good players though. A year from now “we don’t want to block Dominguez and Pereira” could be the new “we don’t want to block Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe.”

Kiermaier and Margot will be the best free agent center fielders next offseason – actual center fielders, I mean, not corner guys thrust into center – and trade candidates include Ramon Laureano, Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins, and Ketel Marte depending on your opinion about him in center (the Diamondbacks had to move Marte to second late last year because he kept hurting his hamstring in center). They all will cost a pretty penny.

Three names to keep in mind: Cody Bellinger, Cristian Pache, and Victor Robles. Bellinger had a brutal 2021 that seems to get worse every time I look at it (.165/.240/.302 and 48 wRC+!) but he is an elite defensive center fielder. Another bad year in 2022 could lead to a non-tender (he’ll make $17M next year), and I could see the Yankees rolling the dice on 27-year-old Bellinger’s lefty swing in Yankee Stadium in 2023 knowing that, at worst, you’re getting great defense.

Pache and in particular Robles fit the “former top prospect who’s falling out of favor with his current team” mold that led the Yankees to Hicks. Robles is a great defender who just hasn’t hit at all (career 83 wRC+). Pache is even better in center than Robles and he hasn’t played much in the big leagues, though he hasn’t torn up Triple-A and the Braves are always quick to demote him whenever he gets called up. I can see those two as post-hype buy low targets.

And of course, we can’t complete this section without mentioning Gardner. He intends to play in 2022 and, as I’ve said many times, I will believe Gardner won’t be a Yankee on Opening Day when I see it. The Yankees can’t quit the guy. Gardner finished last season well and he might be the best free agent center fielder still available. The Yankees signed him in the days leading up to position players reporting last year. I could see that happening again.

Post-2022 outlook: I don’t think Hicks will be the starting center fielder in 2023 mostly because I expect him to move to a corner by then. He’ll be 33 on Opening Day 2023 and there just aren’t many center fielders that age. Johnny Damon, at age 33, moved to left field halfway through Year 2 of his four-year contract with the Yankees. It is the natural order of things.

As much as I want to believe in Florial, I have a hard time seeing him as a full-time center fielder on a contending team in 2023. I think the best case is he starts that season as a platoon guy who hits his way into more playing time, and I’m not overly optimistic about that either. I hope I’m wrong – the Yankees did some great things with hitter development in the minors last year – it just seems like counting on Florial to take that next step is a losing bet right now.

I think the Yankees will bring in a new center fielder between now and next Opening Day. Given their reluctance to trade top prospects, it’s unlikely to be a Reynolds or Mullins type, and there are no free agent center fielders worth a big contract hitting the market next winter. A short-term stop gap like Kiermaier, who won’t stand in the way should Florial break out and also buys the Yankees time to see what’s what with Dominguez and Pereira, is the path of least resistance.

Right field

Incumbents: Aaron Judge (free agent after 2022)
Notable prospects: Dominguez, Dunham, Green, Florial, Pereira

The Yankees want to sign Judge long-term. Does that mean they will give him a blank check? Goodness no. They want to sign him to a fair value contract (I think $200M is the magic number). If another team blows Judge away with an offer the way the Mariners did Robinson Cano, I think the Yankees would let him go (and re-sign Gallo?), as unpopular as it would be.

A long-term deal for Judge comes with questions. How will he age at that size? How will he and Giancarlo Stanton coexist on the same roster as they get deeper into their 30s? How do the Yankees make it all work financially seeing how they already have four players on the books eating up $86M a year through 2025 (Hicks, Stanton, Gerrit Cole, and DJ LeMahieu)? As with everything else, there are pros and cons with a Judge deal.

As with left field, there is never a shortage of quality corner outfielders on the trade market or in free agency. Judge is an excellent defender, but the Yankees don’t prioritize right field defense as much as left field because it’s (much) smaller in Yankee Stadium. That’s why they stuck late career Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltran, and Gary Sheffield out there. Good bat/bad glove players are more of an option in right field. (Maybe that’s where Andujar fits?)

One player we must discuss: Juan Soto. The Nationals wunderkind is scheduled to become a free agent during the 2024-25 offseason, when he will have just turned 26 (!), and he’s a Scott Boras client. Boras prefers to take his top clients into free agency to set new contract records and Soto has as good a chance as anyone to be the sport’s first $500M player.

Just to put Soto’s career into perspective, here are his ranks among the 79 players to bat at least 1,500 times through their age 22 season (he turned 23 in October):

• AVG: .301 (22nd)
• OBP: .432 (fourth behind Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, and John McGraw)
• SLG: .550 (fifth behind Williams, Foxx, Eddie Mathews, and Mel Ott)
• OPS+: 160 (fourth behind Williams, Mike Trout, and Ty Cobb)

Players who do what Soto has done at a young age don’t just become All-Stars, they become inner circle Hall of Famers. He is closer to a once in a lifetime hitter than a once in a generation hitter. Even with sketchy right field (and left field, for that matter) defense, Soto is a best in the sport kinda hitter, a player who can change the trajectory of a franchise like Barry Bonds and Miguel Cabrera. He’s that good.

You can’t plan for a player who is three years away from free agency, but if the Yankees re-sign Judge, there is no chance ownership will approve a record deal for Soto. Do you re-sign Judge and keep your best player? Or let him go and hope in three years you can sign Soto, whose peak aligns with Peraza’s and Volpe’s and Dominguez’s better than Judge’s? The Yankees once passed on Johan Santana to sign CC Sabathia, though that was only a one-year wait. So much can happen between now and Soto’s free agency that I don’t think you can plan for him.

Post-2020 outlook: The long-term right plan boils down to either sign Judge long-term and not worry about it for another few years, or lose him to free agency and scramble. Re-signing Gallo in that case could make sense, though we’ll have to see what kinda year he has in 2022 before deciding whether that’s a good idea (he’s good, but I’m not sure I’d hitch my wagon to him long-term). Corner outfielders are always available in trades and free agency, but almost none are as good as Judge. He is close to impossible to replace.

(You are forewarned: I will be driving the "the Yankees should sign Brandon Nimmo" train next offseason, even if they re-sign Judge. A 29-year-old with good defense and that on-base ability? And a lefty hitter to boot? Sign me the hell up.)

Other than Florial, who is more likely to play center because he’s a great defender and the Yankees have a need there too, the Yankees don’t have any outfielders who are on the cusp of the big leagues and figure to be able to step into the lineup in 2023. I think the Yankees will re-sign Judge. I’m not saying it’ll happen quickly or painlessly, but I think it will happen. If they lose him though, they’re in trouble. He is their most important player and there’s no way to immediately replace that much production.

Designated hitter

Incumbents: Giancarlo Stanton (signed through 2027)
Notable prospects: Anthony Garcia

I intentionally omitted Stanton from the left and right field sections because he just doesn’t play much outfield these days. He played 26 games in the outfield last year and I’m hopeful he’ll see more time out there this coming season, but the fact of the matter is the Yankees primarily use Stanton at DH because they’re trying to keep him healthy, and players tend to DH more as they get older, not less. Those are two very good reasons to believe Stanton will continue to be a DH first and foremost.

Stanton’s outfield play fits more into the “we want to give Gallo or Judge a day off their feet” bucket rather than “he’s out there because we want him out there” bucket, if that makes sense. Letting Judge and/or Gallo leave next offseason, then plugging Stanton into an outfield spot in 2023, is just not a thing that is going to happen. He’s a DH and the Yankees knew he would finish his contract at DH when they made the trade.

Pure DH prospects exist but they’re uncommon – Garcia is a poor defensive outfielder ticketed for first base, but he’s not a DH yet – and “DH of the future” is not something teams prioritize at all. Unless you have a Stanton or a Nelson Cruz or a J.D. Martinez, a true banger worth tying up the DH spot, teams use rotating DHs, and cycle their regulars through the spot. So, technically, every prospect is a DH prospect. Florial would allow the Yankees to put Judge at DH one day and Hicks the next, for example.

Post-2020 outlook: It’s Stanton for the next several years. And if Stanton were to get hurt and miss most of the season like he did in 2019, the Yankees would replace him with a committee rather than one set player. That’s what they did in 2019, when 15 different players started a game at DH, and six started at least 10 games (seven started at least nine). DH is pretty much the last position the Yankees have to worry about right now.

* * *

Gallo’s and Judge’s impending free agencies mean the Yankees have two very big questions to answer in the outfield next offseason, and the likelihood Hicks will move to a corner in the near future means one of those questions is in center, a premium position that is difficult to fill. The Yankees are set at DH. It’s not exactly a priority position, but the Yankees are set there. That’s one less thing to worry about.

Florial is the only outfield prospect in the system who could help the MLB team within the next 12-18 months, so there’s not much immediate help coming from within. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want to re-sign Judge, get a draft pick for Gallo, and be able to go with Hicks in left, Florial in center, and Judge in right until Dominguez or Pereira or whoever pushes Hicks (and Florial?) out of the picture. That is their dream scenario.

If the Yankees are serious about reducing their reliance on Hicks and the “evaluate” center field talk isn’t just talk, it’s entirely possible the entire Opening Day 2023 outfield will be three players not currently with the Yankees. Hicks could be bumped to the bench, Gallo and Judge could walk, and Florial may never hack it. That seems unlikely to me, though the two non-Judge 2023 outfielders not being in the organization right now is not so crazy.

The Yankees are approaching a crossroads with their position player core. Gallo, Judge, and Gary Sanchez are all a year away from free agency, Gio Urshela is two years away from free agency, Luke Voit feels like a goner, Hicks is likely to be moved into something less than a full-time role at some point soon, and they don’t have a shortstop. Second base and DH are pretty well set. Everything else is up in the air. The Yankees are going to have a lot of position player turnover in the next 12-24 months.

2. Minor league signings. The hot stove is frozen solid thanks to the lockout but the Yankees have made a few minor league signings to help keep us warm. They’d previously signed catcher Rob Brantly; infielders Wilkerman Garcia and Jose Peraza; outfielders Ender Inciarte and Blake Perkins; and righties Jimmy Cordero, Vinny Nittoli, and Emmanuel Ramirez. Now here are the latest minor league deals.

LHP Manny Banuelos

The prodigal son has returned. Now the Yankees just need to bring back Dellin Betances and random Yankee Andrew Brackman to complete the set. According to Renso Gomez (translated article), the Yankees have signed Banuelos to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Let’s flash back to what I believe is the most used photo in RAB history (there were only so many photos of prospects in those days, so I used this one over and over):

Banuelos, 31 in March, spent 2008-14 in the farm system and was once one of the top prospects in baseball. Mariano Rivera even called him one of the best young pitchers he’s ever seen. It didn’t work out though, and the Yankees traded Banuelos to the Braves in Jan. 2015. His trade tree is pretty fun. It branches out to Aroldis Chapman, J.A. Happ, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and Adam Warren.

Anyway, Banuelos last pitched in MLB with the White Sox in 2019 (6.93 ERA and 6.57 FIP in 50.2 innings). He spent 2020 in Taiwan and split 2021 between Taiwan and Mexico. Banuelos was pitching in winter ball in Mexico when the Yankees signed him. In 163 innings in various places the last two years, Banuelos has a 2.54 ERA with 198 strikeouts. Here’s 2020 video.

It looks to me like Banuelos has a lower arm slot now than he did back during his prospect days. Here’s the side-by-side(-by-side-by-side) look at his release points (full-size image):

Maybe I’m going crazy and looking for something that isn’t there, but I think his arm slot is lower now than it was the last time he was with the Yankees. I think you can see it better here:

A lower arm slot wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world either. Banuelos is in his 30s now and as the innings and wear and tear build up, the arm doesn’t work exactly the same way as it once did, and veteran pitchers can sometimes see their arms drop. It’s natural.

I wonder if the Yankees see something in the lower arm slot. Lower arm slots are conducive to sweepy sliders, and when the Yankees signed Nittoli a few weeks ago, I noted three of the five pitchers who added the most horizontal movement to their slider in 2021 are Yankees. The list:

1. Mike King, Yankees: +7.2 inches
2. Paolo Espinal, Nationals: +6.4 inches
3. Blake Treinen, Dodgers: +5.7 inches
4. Nestor Cortes, Yankees: +5.2 inches
5. Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees: +5.1 inches

Banuelos was primarily a curveball pitcher back in the day, though the Yankees helped him add a little slider/cutter hybrid not long before the trade, and it looks like he’s throwing both a slider and curveball in the video I linked earlier. Either that or it’s one single breaking ball he’s throwing anywhere from 80-88 mph. I guess it’s possible, but that’s a big velocity range for one pitch.

It could be that with his lower arm slot, the Yankees believe they can help Banuelos improve his slider the way they did King and Cortes last year. He hit 95 mph several times in that video, so the velocity is there. Improve the breaking ball and hey, they might have something here, similar to Cortes last year, when they turned a seemingly nondescript lefty into a viable big leaguer.

Like Cortes, the Yankees know Banuelos well. They had him in the farm system for years. The Yankees know how he takes to coaching and instruction, and whether he’s capable and willing to make adjustments. Coaches can only do so much. It’s ultimately on the player to make the adjustments and execute. The Yankees have a little extra insight into Banuelos’ work habits.

There’s lots of time for trades and injuries and permanent shifts to the bullpen between now and Opening Day, but at the moment, the MLB and Triple-A rotations look something like this (focus on the names, not the order):

MLB
RHP Gerrit Cole
LHP Jordan Montgomery
RHP Luis Severino
LHP Nestor Cortes
RHP Domingo German

Triple-A
RHP Deivi Garcia
RHP Luis Gil
LHP Matt Krook
RHP Luis Medina
RHP Clarke Schmidt
RHP Hayden Wesneski
LHP Ken Waldichuk (wasn’t great in Double-A, could return there)

Like I said, injuries and trades and whatnot could change things, but the Triple-A rotation looks pretty full, so Banuelos may be headed for the bullpen. And that’s fine. Cortes started last year in the Triple-A bullpen working 2-3 inning, 40-pitch stints, and finished it as what, the Yankees’ No. 3 starter? A Triple-A bullpen assignment isn’t the end of the world.

Bringing back a former top prospect is always fun even though it’s not often it pays off like we all hope. Banuelos may be nothing more than a Triple-A innings guy who opts out of his contract in June, but what the Yankees did with Cortes last year is a reason to believe there may be something more to this. I’m irrationally hopeful. This could be neat.

C/1B David Freitas

The Yankees appear to have their No. 4 catcher. They’ve signed journeyman David Freitas to a minor league deal, according to the official site. He has big league time and it’s safe to assume he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player. If nothing else, Freitas will help catch bullpens, though he’ll spend Spring Training getting to know the pitching staff, etc.

Freitas, 33 in March, hit .200/.268/.288 (55 wRC+) in 143 big league plate appearances with the Braves, Mariners, and Brewers from 2017-19. He split 2021 between Korea and Triple-A with the Rays, and is a career .322/.401/.472 hitter in over 1,100 Triple-A plate appearances. That is very Quad-A-like. Catchers who can hit Triple-A pitching will never have trouble finding work.

The catcher stats at Baseball Prospectus are by far the best catcher stats available publicly and they have Freitas as roughly average dating back to 2014. Freitas has played a bunch of first base throughout his career as well and is more of a catcher/first base type than a full-time catcher. Think the Triple-A version of the Angels version of Mike Napoli.

Chris Gittens went to Japan, so the Yankees need a new Triple-A first baseman, though I don’t think Freitas will take that job outright. He’ll catch a little, play first base a little, DH a little, etc. This is what No. 4 catchers tend to look like. If anything, having a veteran dude who’s been around and has big league experience in that role is a nice get.

C Max McDowell

I missed this a few weeks ago. The Yankees have re-signed McDowell to a new minor league contract, he announced on Instagram. This coming season will be his third in the organization. He is a defense-first guy who spent most of last year backing up Brantly with the RailRiders, where he hit .227/.381/.297 (100 wRC+) in 162 plate appearances.

Other than two games at first base in rookie ball in 2015, McDowell has never played a position other than catcher. Seems to me he and Brantly will do the majority of the catching in Scranton, and Freitas will split his time between catcher, first base, and DH. McDowell has no big league time, but he knows much of the pitching staff and is a solid enough deep depth piece.

C Rodolfo Duran

Add another one to the catcher pile. The Yankees have also signed Duran to a minor league deal, according to the official site. He’s barely played above High-A (31 games in Double-A and four games in Triple-A), so a Spring Training invite is not a given, but I bet he got one. You always need catchers in camp and it’s not a big expense or anything.

The 23-year-old Duran signed with the Phillies as an international free agent in 2014 ($75,000 bonus) and he’s a weak bat/good glove type. He’s a career .244/.283/.407 (99 wRC+) hitter in over 1,000 minor league plate appearances. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Duran as Philadelphia’s No. 20 prospect as recently as 2019. Their scouting report at the time:

Duran has the skills to develop into an average to plus defensive catcher. With a plus arm and quick transfer, Duran produces pop times in the low-1.9s … Duran is flexible behind the plate, but his throwing is more advanced than his blocking, as he still lets too many balls sneak past him. Solid-average raw power is his offensive carrying tool … Duran doesn't swing and miss excessively, but he needs to improve his breaking ball recognition and would benefit from a more selective approach, with a pull-heavy mentality that leaves him vulnerable on the outer third and hampers his on-base percentage.

In March, Eric Longenhagen wrote “Duran is an athletic, workmanlike catcher with plus raw arm strength ... (His) power output is limited by an epicurean approach, but a very compact swing enables enough contact to support a backup catching profile.” Hey, a 23-year-old with a chance to be a big league backup catcher is a nice get in minor league free agency.

With Duran, it looks like the Yankees potentially replaced Donny Sands with a younger Donny Sands, albeit with fewer walks and better defense. Hopefully Duran breaks out in 2022 like Sands did in 2021. Would be cool. Based on the latest signings, let’s update the catcher depth chart, shall we? This is how I see the catching situation at each level shaking out:

• MLB: Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka
• Triple-A: Rob Brantly, Max McDowell, and David Freitas
• Double-A: Josh Breaux, Austin Wells, and Rodolfo Duran
• High-A: Anthony Seigler and Carlos Narvaez
• Low-A: Antonio Gomez and Alex Guerrero

Freitas can play first base, and Duran allows the Yankees to put Breaux and Wells in the lineup every game (one at catcher and one at DH) while still having a backup catcher on the bench. And you know there will be injuries. That’s the nature of the position. Three Triple-A caliber catchers and three Double-A caliber catchers is not tremendous depth or anything. It’s just what you need to get through the season.

RHP Ryan Weber

And finally, the Yankees have also signed Weber, a sinkerballing righty, to a minor league contract, reports Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Weber has big league time and surely received an invite to big league camp. He, moreso than Banuelos, is likely to be the Triple-A innings guy. There’s a chance Banuelos can contribute in some capacity. Weber is an inventory arm.

You probably remember the 31-year-old Weber from his time with the Red Sox, where he was best known for giving up dingers like this one and this one. He allowed 13 runs in 9.2 innings with the Red Sox, Brewers, and Mariners last year, and owns a 5.28 ERA (4.99 FIP) in 167 career big league innings. That is as close to replacement level as it gets.

Weber is a low slot slinger with an upper-80s sinker who has a 52.8% ground ball rate and a 14.9% strikeout rate in his MLB career, and he’s a league average exit velocity guy. It’s not like there’s some hidden hard contact suppression skill here. In 2020, Weber faced 46 batters before recording his first strikeout of the year. That seems impossible in this era.

The Yankees are all about sinkers and changeups these days and Weber has both, so maybe there’s something here they think they can unlock. I’m not gonna hold my breath but I’m open to looking dumb on this one. I see Weber as a Triple-A innings guy and, if he sees meaningful big league time, it’s more likely things are going very wrong with the Yankees than very right with Weber.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB and the MLBPA held their first core economics discussion of the lockout yesterday (it’s only Day 44 of the lockout, what’s the rush?). The league made a proposal, the union didn’t like it, and now we wait for the union’s counter. Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report in about a month. It's getting tougher and tougher to see Spring Training starting on time, and frankly it wouldn’t surprise me if MLB and Rob Manfred see that as a feature, not a bug … Add random Yankee Eric Hinske to the list of assistant hitting coach candidates. Jon Heyman says Hinske is among those the Yankees are considering for the job, along with Mark Trumbo. Hinske has the playing experience the Yankees want and he’s also an experienced coach now too. He spent seven years as an assistant hitting coach with the Cubs and Diamondbacks (he was part of the 2016 World Series coaching staff in Chicago) and one year as the main hitting coach with the Angels. Hinske seems like as good a candidate as any to be the guy I see in the dugout every so often and say “oh yeah, I forgot the Yankees hired him” … And finally, the Orioles are changing the dimensions of Camden Yards, the AL East’s best ballpark. Nathan Ruiz reports the O’s will raise the left field wall from seven feet to 12 feet (so no more cool home run robberies) from the foul line to somewhere near the bullpens. Also, they’re ripping out seats and pushing the wall back as much as 30 feet (!) in some areas. Here’s a construction photo. Since 2019, O’s pitchers have a 1.92 HR/9 (17.9 HR/FB%) at home and a 1.50 HR/9 (14.1 HR/FB%) on the road. The MLB averages are 1.33 HR/9 (14.5 HR/FB%). Why build a competent pitching staff when you can just change your ballpark to make your crappy pitchers look good? I’ll miss the short left field wall. It was fun. Oh well.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Zed asks: Regarding the upcoming CBA, I feel like I've read a lot about the Yankees waiting to see where the next luxury tax bar is set, but I'm starting to think that it may have more to do with how much the playoffs expand. It seems unlikely that the tax bar will go up dramatically in the near future. On the other hand, if the playoffs grow to 12 (or 14) teams, maybe the Yankees' calculus is that it isn't worth signing a super star, window be damned, since the team is likely good enough to make the playoffs if they are expanded. What do you think, Mike?

That sounds completely plausible. And really, it’s both. It’s waiting to see the new luxury tax threshold and the new postseason format. They both matter. The MLBPA proposed a 12-team postseason and MLB proposed 14 teams, so we’re getting at least 12 teams in the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement. Expanded postseason is happening.

And with an expanded postseason, you don’t have to be quite as tall to ride the roller coaster, so why spend that extra $10M or so to turn an 88-win team into a 90-win team? 88 wins is probably going to get you into the postseason. That’s my biggest concern with an expanded postseason. Lowering the bar for entry, which means watered down competition in October, and fewer teams really going for it. Being mediocre will be more rewarding.

Hal Steinbrenner voted in favor of lowering the luxury tax threshold, so the cat is out of the bag. It’s all about money. An expanded postseason would allow teams to spend less on payroll and still call themselves contenders, and the luxury tax is just a convenient excuse to not raise payroll. So, I think the answer is both. The Yankees were inactive prior to the lockout because they want to see the luxury tax threshold and the postseason format, which they will then use to justify not raising payroll in a meaningful way.

John asks: 2 trade targets that I wanted to get your thoughts on. Jazz Chisholm and Zac Gallen (who were both traded for one another in the past). They both are young players on "rebuilding teams" which is always a challenge but they are on teams that have a history of trading with NYY. Jazz adds some speed to the line up and is a lefty bat capable of playing short. He seems to complement the line up nicely and could slide into the 9 hole hitter while playing a capable short. Gallen showed top of the line stuff before being somewhat average in 2021. Both seem to fit holes in this team but would they actually be traded and what would they cost?

Chisholm would be excellent. He’s an exciting player who plays with passion and is easy to root for, and he hit .248/.303/.425 (98 wRC+) with 18 homers and 23 steals in 2021. That’s not great, but for a 23-year-old middle infielder in his first full MLB season, it’s pretty good. The strikeouts (28.6%) and poor shortstop defense (-4 DRS and -10 OAA) are the downside, though he played fewer than 300 innings at short in 2021, so I’m inclined to ignore the defense numbers.

I’d love to get Chisholm’s lefty bat and speed and verve on the Yankees, but I can’t imagine the Marlins are open to trading him. He’s one of their young building block position players, and their pre-lockout moves (extending Sandy Alcantara and bringing in Avisail Garcia, Jacob Stallings, and Joey Wendle*) suggest they’re looking to take a step forward in 2022, not subtract a centerpiece player like Chisholm. Realistically, he’s not going anywhere.

* I applaud the Marlins for improving ... but Garcia, Stallings, and Wendle? Those are their big offseason additions? They need their young position players (Chisholm, Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, etc.) to hit right away to contend. Their pitching is ready to win and at risk of breaking down before the bats are ready (because pitchers tend to break down). Not quite sure the timelines match up with Miami's pitchers and hitters.

What if the Yankees put Gleyber Torres on the table? The Derek Jeter/Gary Denbo Marlins love Yankees and ex-Yankees. Three years of Gleyber for five years of Chisholm? Miami extended Miguel Rojas a few months ago, so they have their shortstop. Torres could step in at second to replace Chisholm, and he brings a greater track record. The Yankees could also kick in, say, one year of Chad Green (and a prospect?) to even things out. Jeter and Denbo may not be able to help themselves.

Like I said though, I don’t think Chisholm is going anywhere. That one seems unrealistic. Gallen is another matter. The D’Backs lost 110 games last season and the 26-year-old Gallen has four years of control remaining, so in theory he could be part of the next contending team in Arizona, but in that division? With the Dodgers and Giants (and Padres)? I’m not sure a quick turnaround is happening, and pitchers break, so move Gallen while you can.

Gallen was great from 2019-20 (2.78 ERA and 3.68 FIP in 152 innings) and just okay around injuries in 2021 (4.30 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 121.1 innings). He tweaked his elbow taking a swing in May, then pulled his hamstring in July. Arizona’s Triple-A affiliate plays in a launching pad in Reno (Reno hit .294/.373/.518 as a team in 2021), so the D’Backs didn’t have Gallen rehab there, and instead brought him back to MLB with limited pitch counts. It was weird.

There’s a lot to like about Gallen, at least when he’s healthy. He throws four pitches (four-seamer, cutter, changeup, curveball) at least 15% of the time each and all four had better than average swing and miss rates from 2019-20, leading to a career 27.6% strikeout rate. He was also an above-average exit velocity suppression guy. The pre-2021 version of Gallen was awfully impressive.

The D’Backs have been very bad at developing pitchers and apparently Robbie Ray’s breakout with the Blue Jays sent ownership over the edge, and they cleaned house after last season. They brought in all new player development folks, hired pitching coach Brent Strom away from the Astros, and hired multiple assistant pitching coaches. They’re trying to fix it.

Which is to say Gallen has not been “fixed” yet, so if you’re going to trade for him, trade for him now, before he goes back to 2019-20 Gallen and the price goes up. The changeup is his No. 2 pitch and it’s a hard upper-80s changeup like the changeups the Yankees have targeted. Power changeups like Joely Rodriguez’s and Wandy Peralta’s. Here's Gallen's (GIF via Rob Friedman):

There haven’t been many starting pitchers traded with four years of team control remaining the last few years, so coming up with a trade benchmark is tough. Jose Quintana was traded with 3.5 years of team control for one top 10 prospect (Eloy Jimenez), one top 100 prospect (Dylan Cease), and two others. I can’t see Gallen fetching that (or the Yankees paying that).

The Yankees don’t trade their very best prospects often and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. If the D’Backs are willing to do a Joey Gallo or Jameson Taillon trade package, meaning three or four second tier prospects, the Yankees would be all ears. If they insist on Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe, forget it. I like Gallen as a target though. I’m not sure it’s doable, but I like it. He has ability and seems to have untapped potential.

Jonathan asks: How long until Balkovec (or a different woman) becomes the first MLB manager? What team(s) would likely be first to do it?

The Yankees officially named Rachel Balkovec Low-A Tampa’s manager earlier this week and held an introductory video call, which is unheard of for a minor league manager, but this is a groundbreaking hire. Balkovec is the first female manager in affiliate baseball and whatever “it” is, she has it. Smart, confident, not shy about her goals (she wants to be a GM one day), and she fully embraces being a role model.

“I don’t think you sign your name on the dotted line to do something like this and then say, ‘Well, I don’t want to be a role model.’ I want to be a visible idea for young women. I want to be a visible idea for dads that have daughters. I want to be out there,” she said during the video call (video link). “... It’s the American dream. There’s definitely been some dark times in my career that I’ve been able to overcome, by myself and with the support of those around me. I think that everybody can enjoy a piece of my story.”

Balkovec will be one of 11 women in uniform between the Majors and minors this year, including Giants coach Alyssa Nakken, and last year Kim Ng became the first female GM in MLB history. I’d say as recently as 7-8 years ago, female coaches and GMs still felt pretty far off. Now there’s a few hired every offseason. It’s progress. Not rapid progress, but it is progress, and that’s good.

I couldn’t give you a timetable on a female MLB manager – honestly, I could see it happening tomorrow or not for another 25 years – but you can see how much they have to overcome to get these jobs. Ng spent two decades in front offices before getting a GM job. A man with her resume would have been hired and fired twice before she got hired once. Balkovec spent 10 years coaching before getting a manager’s job. Compare that to, say, David Adams, who retired as a journeyman player in 2016 and was managing in the minors by 2018. Women have to clear a higher bar to get these jobs.

Becky Hammon spent nearly a decade as an assistant coach with the NBA’s San Antonio Spurs, interviewed for several head coaching jobs, and kept getting passed over. She’s as qualified as any man, but sports are a male-dominated industry, and no one has been willing to put a woman in charge of a locker room with a bunch of alpha males at the highest level yet. Managing impressionable 21-year-olds in Low-A is much different than a big league clubhouse.

The Yankees are a good candidate to break that barrier and hire the first female MLB manager. Ng and Jean Afterman were among the first women in a front office when the Yankees hired them as assistant GMs (Afterman might still be the highest ranking woman in a front office, but there’s so much job title ambiguity these days that it’s hard to tell), and they hired Balkovec to be the first female minor league hitting coach, and now the first female minor league manager. The Yankees have been progressive in this area, relative to other MLB teams.

I think we’ll see a female MLB manager in my lifetime. I’ll say that much. You’re going to need a progressive front office and an owner willing to sign off on it, and the right candidate too. I’d like to think the first female manager will be criticized fairly and put under the same microscope as a male manager, but you know that won’t be the case. She will be scrutinized more than any manager in history. The Yankees, the Giants, and the Red Sox have been at the forefront, so if you’re looking for a team likely to make that historic hire, they’re the best bets.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)