January 4th, 2022: Chapman, McNeil, Smith, Santana, Tucker

Happy New Year folks. I’m going to start 2022 with a little self-promotion: I wrote about 2022 being a crucial year for MLB’s future, and not just because of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. You don’t have to read it. Just give me a click. Thanks. Let’s get to the first post of the year the Yankees win their 28th World Series (might as well give it a try, right?).

1. Latest hot stove rumors. The lockout continues unabated but a few hot stove nuggets have trickled in the last two weeks or so. Stuff worth more than a passing mention too. Let’s take a look at the latest and greatest.

Yankees have considered Chapman at short

We’ve reached the “let’s get weird” phase of the offseason/lockout/shortstop search. During a recent appearance on Michael Kay’s radio show (audio link), Buster Olney said the Yankees have kicked around acquiring Matt Chapman and putting him at short. Chapman, of course, is a Platinum Glove winning third baseman with the Athletics. Here is Olney’s full quote:

"If I were to guess, I think they'll end up with one of the Oakland guys. Matt Chapman, for example, maybe you acquire him to be the one-year shortstop. I know he's a third baseman – he's exceptional – but if you added Matt Chapman, you would be improving your defense on the left side of the infield. And I know the Yankees have talked a little bit about this internally. Look, can Matt Chapman play shortstop? I think they wind up with one of those guys. Maybe it's (Matt) Olson and then they hold back and they pay Aaron Judge."

I want to reinforce that Olney said this is something the Yankees have “talked a little bit about … internally.” I’ve seen this misquoted in a few places as the Yankees have talked to the A’s about Chapman, and while that may have happened, that’s not what Olney said. He said the Yankees have discussed this amongst themselves and that’s all.

A few thoughts on this. One, Chapman is a special defender, and although he only has 10 career innings at short, I think he’d handle it just fine. He played short in college and some in the minors, so it wouldn’t be an entirely new experience. Maybe Chapman wouldn’t be a best at the position defender at short like he is at third, but I bet he’d be at least average. Probably better.

Two, Chapman’s bat has gone backwards the last few years. He hit .210/.314/.403 (101 wRC+) last year, and in his four full big league seasons, his wRC+ has gone from 139 to 125 to 116 to 101. Here’s what I wrote when I looked at the A’s as trade partners two months ago:

The under-the-hood numbers are worrisome too. Chapman's average exit velocity went from 93.1 mph in 2018 to 92.7 mph in 2019 to 93.6 mph in 2020 to 89.7 mph in 2021. His hard-hit rate went from 47.8% to 49.0% to 51.7% to 41.7%. That’s the largest 2020-to-2021 exit velocity drop and second largest hard-hit rate drop in baseball. This is bad:

The exit velocity on Chapman’s top 45% of batted balls, the bucket that best correlates to future performance, dipped to 102.1 mph in 2021. It was 104.5 mph in 2020 and 104.3 mph in 2019. That 102.1 mph isn’t bad (that’s Randy Arozarena and Nick Castellanos territory), though it is a step down from the previous two years. Chapman’s not impacting the ball like once did.

The Yankees have an entirely new hitting coach group and are obviously hoping those folks will get DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and others back on track. Buying low on Chapman – I think it’s fair to call him a buy low candidate given his down 2021, though I don’t think you’ll get him for spare parts either – and turning him over to the new hitting coaches would fit the pattern.

Three, Chapman is not what the Yankees need offensively, even when he’s at his best. He’s a high strikeout righty – only Miguel Sano (37.0%) and Joey Gallo (34.7%) struck out more than Chapman (33.1%) the last two years – and the Yankees must diversify the lineup. The last few years have shown building the offense around the same type of hitter can be counterproductive.

The offseason is when you have the luxury of time and can look for exactly what you need, and the Yankees need a lefty bat or two, preferably guys who don’t strike out excessively. We know the Yankees know this. They told us so at the trade deadline. This is a weird offseason because of the lockout, but that shouldn’t change the priorities. Lefty bats, please and thank you.

Four, Chapman has two years of team control remaining, which fits very well with the Yankees’ long-term plan (i.e. hope like crazy Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe work out). They can put Chapman at short for two years, or move him back to third base should Peraza or Volpe arrive before 2024. He’s not a super long-term piece who gums up the roster.

And five, the Athletics did nothing prior to the lockout. Based on all the activity around the league, it seems teams focused on free agents, and trades took a backseat. Teams can talk trades during the lockout (they can’t finalize them though) and I imagine the A’s have spent the last few weeks on the phone, especially if they’re planning to cut payroll as reported.

The pre-lockout inactivity means the Athletics figure to be busy post-lockout. Chapman, Olson, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and others are obvious trade candidates, and the A’s might only have 2-3 weeks to move them before the start of Spring Training. The truncated schedule puts pressure on the A’s and could  – could – work to the Yankees’ advantage.

The Yankees are beyond the “just add the best talent” phase of roster building and now need to find the right pieces, if that makes sense. Chapman is really good! Or at least he can be based on what we saw two years ago. Even if he settles in as an average hitter going forward, average offense plus top of the line defense equals a comfortably above-average player.

I like the creativity. The free agent shortstop market is down to Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, and a bunch of mediocre stopgaps. Viable trade candidates include Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and maybe Amed Rosario. The alternatives to Correa and Story aren’t great. Trading for a top defensive third baseman and moving him to shortstop is a creative, outside the box idea.

I don’t worry about Chapman’s ability to handle short. I just don’t like the fit as a high strikeout righty whose offense has gone backwards, especially since the underlying indicators (swing and miss rate, exit velocity, etc.) are slipping. This isn’t a guy who’s still hitting the ball and making contact like he did earlier in his career. His core hitting ability seems to have declined.

Like I said, I like the creativity. Teams can’t do much else right now, so might as well kick around a few crazy ideas. Maybe you’ll run into something that makes sense. Would Chapman make the Yankees better? Yes. I mean, they don’t have a shortstop, so yes. Is he an ideal fit? No, not really, and the offseason is when you should seek out what fits best rather than mash the pieces together and hope it works.

Mets expected to deal McNeil, Smith

According to Mike Puma (subs. req’d), there is “some expectation within the industry” the Mets will trade Jeff McNeil and/or Dominic Smith once the lockout ends. Pitching would be a sensible target given their current bullpen (not great) and the injury concerns with Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco. Here is the Mets’ projected lineup (focus on the names, not the order):

1. RF Brandon Nimmo
2. CF Starling Marte
3. SS Francisco Lindor
4. 1B Pete Alonso
5. 2B Robinson Cano
6. LF Mark Canha
7. 3B Eduardo Escobar
8. C James McCann
9. Pitcher’s spot

That leaves McNeil, Smith, and J.D. Davis on the bench. Assuming the universal DH becomes a thing, two of those three will still be on the bench on any given day. Maybe the Mets will release Cano to further clear the logjam, but I doubt it. They owe him $40.5M the next two years* and I think they’ll give him a chance to show he can contribute before eating that.

* Cano could also get suspended again, which would be a lifetime ban as a third time offender. Another suspension would make the rest of his contract go away.

The Mets have shopped McNeil and Smith around the last few years – McNeil was rumored to be part of the Cano trade at one point, and the Mets tried to use Smith as a sweetener to unload Jed Lowrie’s contract – so other teams expecting them to be available after the lockout isn’t a reach. There’s no reason not to listen if you’re the Mets. Someone might blow you away.

It’s not tough to see McNeil and/or Smith fitting with the Yankees. Smith, 26, is a lefty hitting first baseman with a good glove, and boy do the Yankees need one of those. He hit .244/.304/.363 (86 wRC+) around a wrist injury last year, but did hit .299/.366/.571 (150 wRC+) with a 22.5% strikeout rate in close to 400 plate appearances from 2019-20.

The Mets have stuck Smith in left field in deference to Alonso the last few seasons and it hasn’t gone well defensively. I’d love to see what he could do when you put him at first base full-time, where he’s most comfortable and wouldn’t have to look over his shoulder for playing time. Smith has spent the last few years being platooned and playing out of position.

McNeil, 30 in April, was excellent from 2018-20, hitting .319/.383/.501 (140 wRC+) with a 12.0% strikeout rate in over 1,000 plate appearances. Every team could use a lefty hitter like that, and especially the Yankees. He’s played second, third, left, and right, so getting him into the lineup wouldn’t be hard. McNeil wouldn’t solve the shortstop problem but he’d help somewhere.

Last year though, McNeil slipped down to .251/.319/.360 (93 wRC+) with a still excellent 13.9% strikeout rate around a hamstring issue. Also, McNeil doesn’t have the rosiest reputation within the game. He’s clashed with coaches and teammates (when he was playing well he was labeled as “fiery,” naturally), and he bumped heads with the Mets about having to play the shift.

Maybe McNeil’s reputation will push the Yankees away – new third base coach Luis Rojas could certainly give a firsthand account of McNeil’s attitude – or maybe they’ll believe Aaron Boone’s clubhouse can smooth things over. Point is, McNeil could be a high-end super utility guy who plays all over and provides a high contact lefty bat. He’s a super interesting buy low candidate.

McNeil and Smith are both three years away from free agency and I don’t know how you value them. They’ve both performed at very high levels in the past, though 2021 was a down year for both (while dealing with injuries), and the Mets have shopped them both around enough times over the years to believe they want to move them. I dunno.

The Yankees have decent rotation depth but I would hesitate to trade from it with Luis Severino entering his first full year back from Tommy John surgery and Jameson Taillon coming off ankle surgery. I’d have no trouble trading from the bullpen though. How much does one year of Chad Green interest the Mets? Two years of Wandy Peralta? Three years of Jonathan Loaisiga?

I don’t want to spend too much time on McNeil and Smith because, even with the Wilpons and their inferior complex out of the picture, I think a significant Mets-Yankees trade is very unlikely. Even if a crosstown trade were possible, how do the Yankees feel about McNeil’s and Smith’s chances to bounce back? Can the two sides match up on a deal? Fun one to think about.

Royals may attempt to move Santana

The Royals may attempt to trade Carlos Santana after the lockout, reports Alec Lewis (subs. req’d). First base prospect Nick Pratto and catcher prospect MJ Melendez had huge breakout years in 2021 and are knocking on the door. With Sal Perez entrenched behind the plate, Pratto and Melendez are coming for first base and DH at-bats very soon, respectively.

Santana, 36 in April, hit a career worst .214/.319/.342 (83 wRC+) with 19 homers last year. He still walked a ton (13.1%) without striking out a ton (15.5%), and he played through a quad injury that required an offseason platelet-rich plasma injection. “Now, I feel 100%. I keep working on my body, but right now I feel 100%,” Santana told Lynn Worthy last month.

The Royals gave Santana a backloaded two-year, $17.5M contract last offseason. He’ll be paid $10.5M in 2022 with an $8.75M luxury tax hit. That’s almost 15% of their projected payroll. The Royals might be willing to attach a sweetener to Santana to clear that money, and open at-bats for Pratto. (To their credit, Kansas City hasn’t manipulated service time under GM Dayton Moore.)

“The Yankees should sign/trade for Santana” was a thing every offseason for a few years there, though that was fans connecting the dots more than substantiated rumors. At his peak, Santana was tremendously productive (122 wRC+ from 2011-19), and even last year his max and top 45% exit velocities were strong. In line with his peak years, unlike, say, Matt Chapman.

Given his age and down 2021 season, there’s a chance Santana is cooked, or will be very soon. He’s a sneaky good defender, but not so good that you’ll live with below average offense to get his glove at first base. The Yankees need a lefty first baseman (Santana’s a switch-hitter) who doesn’t strike out a ton. Santana fits, at least in theory. He was that guy most of his career.

Santana should be what, Plan C at first base? Assuming signing Freddie Freeman to a huge money long-term deal is off the table, then Plan A is trade for Matt Olson and Plan B is re-sign Anthony Rizzo. Sticking with Luke Voit at first base over Santana would be a defensible Plan C, though again that only exacerbates the “righties who strike out a lot” problem.

Are the Royals willing to kick in a sweetener to move Santana’s contract? And how sweet are we talking, exactly? The Yankees gave up a fringe top 30 prospect (Frank German) to move Adam Ottavino’s $8M, though that was a much smaller percentage of their total payroll than Santana is for the Royals. They might be desperate to move his contract.

I totally buy the Royals being open to moving Santana, so file him away as a backup plan (a backup plan for the backup plan?) should Olson and Rizzo and whatever else the Yankees have in mind not come together after the lockout. That said, if winning the World Series is the goal, first base is a spot the Yankees should actively try to upgrade, not plug with a bounceback candidate because he’ll come cheap.

2. Possible trade target: Cole Tucker. Whenever the lockout ends, the Yankees will bring in a new shortstop, and we know that because they literally do not have a shortstop right now. Not even a backup. I don’t know whether they’ll spend big or go cheap or what, but the Yankees adding a shortstop is the one thing I am absolutely certain will happen before Opening Day.

Seven years ago the Yankees needed to replace Derek Jeter, and rather than throw money at the problem and sign a top free agent shortstop (Hanley Ramirez! Jed Lowrie!), they traded for Didi Gregorius. Gregorius was not yet an established big leaguer, but he was young and had a nice skill set, and the Yankees were trying to infuse the team with athleticism and upside.

The Yankees now are in a different place than the Yankees were then – they were transitioning out of the Core Four era and trying to build a new core in 2015, now they’re trying to get over the hump and win a championship – but adding talented young players is never a bad idea, even when they have little to no track record as a productive big leaguer.

If the Yankees go the Gregorius route at shortstop again (I think it’s unlikely, but humor me), one possible target is Pirates shortstop-turned-utility guy Cole Tucker. The 25-year-old has gone up and down the last three years and is a career .217/.272/.330 (60 wRC+) hitter in 406 big league plate appearances. He’s a career .245/.347/.396 (98 wRC+) hitter in 138 Triple-A games.

The Yankees and Pirates are frequent trade partners (10 trades since 2012) and the Jameson Taillon and Clay Holmes trades last year suggest Pittsburgh is familiar with the Yankees’ farm system. That could help expedite any trade talks during the post-lockout time crunch. Does Tucker even make sense for the Yankees though? Let’s break it down.

He made swing changes in 2021

Tucker spent the entire 2020 season on the big league roster, but he did not make the team out of Spring Training last year, and was sent to the alternate site. That was a bit of a reality check – “That’s a humbling thing to do as a baseball player. It gives you a lot of perspective,” Tucker told Kevin Gorman – and Tucker went to the alternate site, and made a few changes to his swing.

“There are things that he really wanted to tighten up in terms of his movement patterns in his swing,” GM Ben Cherington told Gorman. “I think once we got out of big league camp and sort of got out of the competitive situation where you have games and you’re trying to get on base – you’re trying to win a job – once we got past that, we just felt like, in talking to Cole, that it was an opportunity for him to dive back into some work just to tighten that up. To his credit, he really worked hard at it.”

Here are the requisite before and after GIFs. Tucker is a switch-hitter and I’m going to focus on his lefty swing because that’s the side where he’ll get more action. This is 2020 on the left and 2021 on the right, and the GIFs are synced up at the pitcher’s release point (GIF link):

First and foremost, Tucker’s follow through was so much smoother this year. Last year he kinda chopped at the ball and cut off his follow through. This year Tucker drives through the ball and had a classic two-handed follow through. A pretty looking swing, I’d say (Daniel Murphy-esque). Just look where his hands finish:

Also, Tucker’s leg kick was much shorter this year. His foot is already hanging in the air when the 2020 GIF begins, before the pitcher begins to move forward with the pitch! Everything was disjointed last year. This year he was much more fluid.

“That’s what we’ve been working on the whole time,” Tucker told Mike Persak in September. “It’s been a long year for me, if you look back to the end of Spring Training, getting optioned, and staying down in Florida and working on stuff with (Triple-A hitting coach Jon Nunnally) and those guys, it’s been a long work in progress, you know, obviously.”

At 6-foot-3 and 200 lbs., Tucker has long levers and a lot of body to control, and a few years ago Eric Longenhagen wrote Tucker’s “bat path enters the hitting zone in such a way that it causes him to pound the ball into the ground (and if) that gets tweaked, and he also adds strength into his mid-20s, he might suddenly start hitting for power.” Maybe that’s happening now?

• Average exit velocity: 83.1 mph in 2020 to 86.7 mph in 2021
• Max exit velocity: 104.9 mph to 106.7 mph
• Top 45% exit velocity: 95.7 mph to 98.0 mph

We’re not talking Aaron Judge contact quality here, but it’s not bottom of the league either, and the swing changes are a tangible reason to believe this could be more than small sample noise. Gregorius didn’t knock the cover off the ball early in his career either. The Yankees liked the way his swing worked though, and Tucker’s swing seems to be working better now than in the past.

“I was hitting the ball really hard a lot in Triple-A,” Tucker told Gorman. “I had some really good days, some really unlucky days, but I felt really good about how I was seeing the ball and hitting it. Obviously, nothing is a perfect science and hitting is really hard. I didn’t light up the stat sheet or anything, but I definitely felt like pitchers were fearing me and I was getting pitched around. When they did give me stuff to hit in the zone, I was really attacking it and hitting it hard.”

Tucker had his most productive month as a big leaguer last September (.256/.320/.400 and 94 wRC+), after he made his swing changes and when the Pirates played him just about everyday, and he did make harder contact. The sample sizes are small (80-something batted balls in 2020 and again in 2021), though the data we do have is encouraging.

One thing Sir Didi did that Tucker has not to date is limit swings and misses. Prior to the trade, Gregorius had a 16.9% strikeout rate and 10.3% swinging strike rate. Tucker is at 25.6% and 11.8% in his MLB career, respectively. Also, Gregorius did hit .252/.332/.373 (91 wRC+) in 404 plate appearances in 2013. He showed something at the plate before the trade. Tucker hasn’t.

I don’t want to emphasize the Gregorius comparison too much. I mentioned him earlier only to note the Yankees have passed on free agents and traded for a talented yet unproven shortstop in the past, and could do so again. Even at 25, Tucker is still more potential than production, but he’s making efforts to improve, and if nothing else, his swing looked a lot better in 2021.

A shortstop with versatility

Tucker is a former first round pick (No. 24 overall in 2014) who has been passed on Pittsburgh’s shortstop depth chart by Kevin Newman and top prospect Oneil Cruz. The Pirates have had Tucker play a little outfield to increase his versatility, though he has shortstop skills, similar to Gregorius playing second and third bases with the D’Backs despite being a legitimate shortstop.

“Just trying to take care of each day as it comes,” Tucker told Persak about playing the outfield down the stretch last year. “That’s a terrible answer, but I’m playing all over the place. It sounds like I’m going to get a pretty good chance here to play down the stretch. So just trying to make the most of it every day and do things that encourage (them) to keep putting me in the lineup.”

The versatility is nice, though all indications are Tucker is a legitimate shortstop with the skills to play the position at an above average rate. Neither DRS (-2) nor OAA (-8) love him, though he has yet to play even 450 big league innings at short, so I’m inclined to focus on the scouting reports rather than the numbers. First, here’s Longenhagen:

Rangy and smooth, sure-handed and graceful, he has room to add a few pounds as he ages while still remaining above-average at short. A torn labrum in 2015 cast doubt on Tucker’s ability to stay there if his arm strength weren’t to return but, though it took quite a while, it is not only back but has improved, and he now has a 70 arm.

Now here’s Baseball America (subs. req’d):

Defensively, he's a fluid athlete with above-average range and an above-average arm, making him a prototype shortstop.

Take your pick. Do you believe the stats (bad, but in a limited sample) or the scouting reports (good, but a few years old because it’s been a while since Tucker was prospect eligible) about Tucker’s defense? I lean scouting reports, though I acknowledge defense can deteriorate even from ages 22 to 25. Athleticism and quickness can age, well, quickly.

Normally I would say what we think doesn’t matter, and the Yankees would only trade for Tucker if they believed in his defense at short. That said, they’re willing to live with shaky shortstop defense as long as the offense is there (see: Derek Jeter and Gleyber Torres), so who knows. I know this much: Tucker was considered a gifted defender not too long ago. That’s something.

The other stuff

Two more things to know about Tucker. One, he’s a weapon on the bases. Tucker had multiple 30-steal seasons in the minors and all the other stuff (extra-base taken rate, etc.) has been good in his brief big league career. Tucker is speedy and aggressive (and yes, occasionally reckless). He adds value through the running game, something the Yankees completely lack.

And two, Tucker is a very high energy player with obvious passion for the game. He’s all smiles on the field, he’s invested in the success of his teammates, and he’s very enthusiastic about the game in general. That can rub some people the wrong way (“why is he smiling when he’s hitting .220???”), but the Yankees can be dull at times. A little energy and love of the game won’t hurt anyone.

(Tucker’s younger brother Carson is a Guardians prospect and a former first round pick himself, and supposedly he’s the exact opposite of Cole. Carson is very serious on the field. As someone with two brothers, I can vouch for siblings having polar opposite personalities.)

What would it take?

Just like Gregorius, Tucker has five years of team control remaining and he’ll qualify as a Super Two next offseason, at least under the current rules. It seems likely the arbitration system will change a bit with the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement. Point is, Tucker has five years of control remaining, and one minor league option too, so that’s nice.

The Yankees gave up six years of a good but not great pitching prospect (Shane Greene) to get Gregorius. The 2021 equivalent of Greene is what, Clarke Schmidt? Also, the Pirates have focused on prospects in all their recent trades, so they may prefer to trade Tucker for a bunch of lower level kids who haven’t broken out yet. That would fit their recent M.O.

More recently, the Rays gave up infield prospect Lucius Fox for four and a half years of center fielder Brett Phillips, who was similar to Tucker as an unproven player with upside while with the Royals. Fox was a $6M international signing back in the day, though he’d settled in as a good but not great prospect at the time of a trade. The Yankees equivalent would be, well, Schmidt. (Or if you must go international, someone like Estevan Florial.)

Young players like Tucker, who have the tools to maybe play everyday right away but haven’t shown much to date, usually don’t fetch an overwhelming return, even with so many years of team control remaining. This wouldn’t be a trade that sets the Yankees back much. A good but not great (and expendable) prospect or two would get it done.

Does he make sense?

Eh, I don’t know. I’m intrigued by the skills and swing changes. There are worse players to gamble on. I also think the Yankees need more of a sure thing at shortstop seeing how they are trying to win a World Series. It was easier to roll the dice on Gregorius in 2015 because it was clear the Yankees were a team in transition. The priority now should be winning.

The thing is, if the Yankees are not going to bring in a big name (i.e. Carlos Correa or Trevor Story) and are willing to settle for a stopgap (i.e. Andrelton Simmons or Isiah Kiner-Falefa), I’d almost rather go with a kid like Tucker. Give me a younger player with upside (or at least the illusion of upside) over known mediocrity, you know? Let me dream a little, at least.

I know the Yankees have looked into all sorts of shortstops this offseason. The big names, the stopgaps, the outside the box ideas (like moving Matt Chapman to short), and also unproven post-hype guys like Tucker. I don’t know if they’ve pursued Tucker specifically, but they have looked into these types of players. Young, talented, out of favor with their current team.

Anyway, we’ve reached the “should the Yankees trade for Cole Tucker?” portion of the lockout, so it needs to end soon. In all seriousness, the Yankees have targeted Tucker types in the not-too-distant past, though the team was in a different situation at the time, and he doesn’t seem like a fit now. Decent enough idea. Just not when you’re trying to win a title.

3. Remembering a random Yankee: Luis Ayala. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a reliever who turned a non-roster invite into an Opening Day roster spot and resurrected his career in pinstripes. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Ayala grew up along the Gulf of California coast in Los Mochis, Mexico, and he started his pro career with the Saraperos de Saltillo in the Mexican League as a 19-year-old in 1997. He signed with the Rockies in 1999, but they sold his contract back to Saltillo a few months later. In four years with Saltillo, Ayala had a 2.04 ERA in 238 relief innings. He was a reliever from the start.

It was not until age 24 in 2002 that Ayala got another chance in affiliated ball. The Expos signed him and he threw 7.2 Triple-A innings around an injury that year. Ayala became a free agent after the season, the Diamondbacks signed him, then the Expos took him in the Rule 5 Draft. I guess whatever they offered Ayala as a free agent wasn’t enough, but they got him back anyway.

Ayala is a Rule 5 Draft success story. He quickly emerged as a trusted late-inning reliever for the Expos/Nationals, throwing 232.1 innings with a 2.75 ERA (3.68 FIP) and a 51.4% ground ball rate from 2003-05. All those innings (11th most relief innings those years) took their toll. Ayala blew out his elbow during the 2006 World Baseball Classic and needed Tommy John surgery.

“The player wanted to play, so he has complicity in this for not listening to what the doctors told him,” Nationals president Tony Tavares told the Washington Times. “And baseball and the players union has complicity in this as well. Everybody that is involved in this decision should be ashamed of themselves.”

Ayala missed 2006 and the start of 2007. He returned with his new elbow ligament in June 2007 and wasn’t as effective as he was before the injury, throwing 42.1 innings with a 3.19 ERA (4.37 FIP) and 39.0% grounders. The journeyman portion of Ayala’s career started in 2008. Here’s how his next few years went:

• Aug. 2008: Traded to Mets for infielder Anderson Hernandez.
• Oct. 2008: Released by Mets.
• Feb. 2009: Signed with Twins.
• July 2009: Released by Twins.
• July 2009: Signed with Marlins.
• Sept. 2009: Released by Marlins.
• Dec. 2009: Signed with Dodgers.
• May 2010: Released by Dodgers.
• May 2010: Signed with D’Backs.
• July 2010: Released by D’Backs.
• Aug. 2010: Signed with Rockies.
• Nov. 2010: Released by Rockies.

That’s six organizations in a 27-month span. Ayala did not pitch in the big leagues at all in 2010, instead allowing 35 runs in 47.2 Triple-A innings. Then 32, Ayala’s career was hanging in the balance, so he went home to Mexico to pitch winter ball after the season. He threw 40.2 innings with a 1.99 ERA that winter, which was enough to catch the Yankees’ attention.

On Feb. 9th, 2011, the Yankees signed Ayala to a minor league contract with a $650,000 salary at the MLB level. The signing happened right before pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training and with little fanfare. Ayala pitched well in camp though (11.1 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K), and Pedro Feliciano got hurt at the end of March, opening an Opening Day bullpen spot. Ayala got it over fellow righties Mark Prior and Romulo Sanchez.

“From his first game back, we saw his velocity back, we saw the sink on his fastball, his ability to get ground balls,” Joe Girardi told Dan Martin after announcing Ayala made the team. “... He opened eyes in Spring Training. It was similar to Bartolo (Colon) in a sense. From Day 1, we thought he was a guy who could help us this year and it happened to be now.”

Ayala made his Yankees debut in the second game of the season, allowing two runs in two mop up innings in a win over the Tigers. It was his first MLB action in 19 months. Ayala made two more appearances (three scoreless innings) before going down with a muscle issue in his back. He missed a little more than a month, and the injury gave Hector Noesi his first MLB shot.

Once he returned in May, Ayala went on a three-month tear that saw him allow five runs (four earned) in 36 innings and never more than one run in an appearance. He did that while putting 50 runners on base and allowing a .267/.340/.290 batting line. Ayala allowed zero home runs thanks to a 55.7% ground ball rate. He also had a 90.0% strand rate that was a) lower than I would’ve guessed, and b) unsustainably high (the MLB average is around 72%).

Rafael Soriano, the Yankees’ marquee free agent signing that offseason, went down with an elbow issue in May and Joba Chamberlain underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Given the injuries and all the zeroes he was putting up, you’d think Ayala would get a shot at high leverage work, but nope. David Robertson had his breakout year and took over as Mariano Rivera’s top setup man. Boone Logan and random Yankee Cory Wade were trusted over Ayala too.

Ayala stumbled to the finish the final month of 2011, allowing 10 runs in his final 15 innings. He still finished with a 2.09 ERA (4.19 FIP) in 56 innings. The ground ball rate was solid (50.0%), the walk (8.6%) and strikeout (16.7%) rates not so much, and the strand rate still crazy high (85.7%). Opponents hit .251/.335/.351 against him. Seven Yankees threw at least 30 relief innings in 2011. The leverage index leaderboard:

1. Mariano Rivera: 1.94
2. David Robertson: 1.68
3. Rafael Soriano: 1.46
4. Cory Wade: 1.31
5. Boone Logan: 1.30
6. Hector Noesi: 0.92
7. Luis Ayala: 0.88

Because he put so many runners on base, Girardi limited Ayala to almost entirely low leverage work. That 0.88 Leverage Index was 13th lowest among the 129 relievers to throw at least 50 innings in 2011, and only 22 of his 52 appearances came with the score separated by two runs or fewer (five of those 22 came in extra innings). Ayala was the last guy in the bullpen.

The Yankees won 97 games and the AL East in 2011, and despite the shiny 2.09 ERA, Ayala was not a lock for the postseason roster. A.J. Burnett pitched his way out of the rotation and Phil Hughes returned as a reliever late in the year after getting hurt. Those two would join Logan, Robertson, Rivera, Soriano, and Wade in the postseason bullpen.

The final bullpen spot was down to Ayala, Colon, and lefty Raul Valdes. Valdes impressed as a Sept. call up but would only be on the postseason roster if the Yankees faced the Rangers and had to match up with Josh Hamilton. Once the ALDS matchup with the Tigers was set, they went with Ayala, mostly because Colon hit a wall in the second half of the season.

Because he broke into the league on some bad Expos/Nationals teams, then bounced around a bunch, Ayala had never pitched in the postseason before 2011. Game 1 that year was the rain game. The CC Sabathia vs. Justin Verlander duel was suspended after the top of the second inning, forcing each team to “start” their Game 2 starter (Ivan Nova and Doug Fister) when Game 1 resumed the next day.

Nova pitched very well and the Yankees took a 9-1 lead into the ninth inning. Nova got a quick ground out to begin the frame, but two singles and a walk then loaded the bases. Girardi went to Ayala with an eight-run lead and he retired just one of the three batters he faced. Two singles brought in two runs and brought Rivera out of the bullpen to snuff out the rally. Ayala was not charged with a run (they were charged to Nova), though he didn’t do the job either.

The Tigers took a 4-0 lead into the eighth inning in Game 2. Curtis Granderson swatted a solo home run to get the Yankees on the board, and despite having a rested Robertson and Soriano, Girardi went to Ayala for the second straight day, and he allowed an insurance run in the top of the ninth on a hit batter, a bunt, and a single. The Yankees rallied to score two runs in the bottom half. Ayala’s run wasn’t the game winner, but it made the Yankees work harder during a comeback attempt that fell short.

“I could have a very short leash (on Burnett in Game 3),” Girardi told Wally Matthews when asked why he went with Ayala over Robertson or Soriano in Game 2. (The Yankees planned to start Sabathia, Nova, and Freddy Garcia in the ALDS with Sabathia starting Game 4 on short rest and Nova starting Game 5 on normal rest, if necessary. The rain in Game 1 forced both teams to use a fourth starter in Game 3, so Burnett got the start.)

The Game 2 appearance proved to be Ayala’s last appearance as a Yankee. He did not pitch the rest of the series – Ayala faced more batters (eight) than Robertson (seven) in the ALDS – as the Yankees lost in five games. Ayala became a free agent after the season, and even though he was a low leverage guy, the Yankees tried to re-sign him. He eventually signed a one-year deal worth $825,000 with the Orioles.

FanGraphs WAR, which is based on FIP, had Ayala as replacement level in 2011 (-0.1 WAR). Baseball Reference WAR, which is based on runs allowed, had him at +1.3 WAR, which is really good for a low leverage reliever. Here are the best one-year relievers (i.e. just one year with the team) in Yankees history according to Baseball Reference WAR:

1. Kerry Wood, 2010: +1.5 WAR (a random Yankee)
2. Chris Hammond, 2003: +1.5 WAR (another random Yankee)
3. Luis Ayala, 2011: +1.3 WAR
4. Darren Holmes, 1998: +0.9 WAR
5. Clay Rapada, 2012: +0.8 WAR (yet another random Yankee)

(Clay Holmes technically qualifies for that list at +1.3 WAR, though he’ll be on the team in 2022 barring a surprise trade between now and Opening Day.)

Ayala pitched well with the Orioles in 2012 (2.64 ERA and 3.67 FIP with 49.0% grounders) and I remember reading complaints in the RAB comments about the Yankees not re-signing him. He was solid with the Braves early in 2013 (3.27 ERA and 3.68 FIP with 58.9% grounders), though at age 36, he had to settle for a minor league contract with the Nationals in 2014.

That 2013 season with Atlanta proved to be Ayala’s last in the big leagues. Washington cut him in Spring Training and he spent 2014 in Triple-A with the Orioles and Blue Jays. Ayala then spent 2015-18 in the Mexican League. He retired with a career 3.34 ERA (3.96 FIP) and a 48.5% ground ball rate in 554.1 big league innings. Made just under $9M in player contracts too. Not too bad considering his late entry into affiliated ball.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d), MLB is installing four more cameras at each ballpark to give hitters more angles to see their mechanics. The video is sent to the MLB-issued iPads in each dugout. That is meant to keep hitters out of the video room to cut down on sign-stealing, but if the iPads are connected to the internet, you know teams will try to hack them and give players their own video, be it hitting mechanics or signs or whatever. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: I’m in favor of MLB cutting off video access during games. Let players watch whatever they want before and after games, but during the game itself, forget it. You’re on your own. The players would hate – HATE – it. They’ve already shown you can’t trust them with video though, so they have no one to blame but themselves. Do your prep work before and after games. Mid-game adjustments are on you and you alone … And finally, Patrick Brennan did some fine research attempting to quantify player development. Make sure you check out his post, but long story short, he found a) hitters make the biggest developmental gains in the minors between ages 17-21 and pitchers between ages 17-24, and b) the Yankees had the second best player development system in baseball in 2021, behind only the Royals. That also passes the sniff test given how many position players (and under the radar pitchers) broke out. Anyway, good research, even if it is limited by the lack of available minor league data.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)