December 21st, 2021: Judge, Cueto

Lockout, Day 19: Has it really only been 19 days? I’ll never take those stray “the Yankees have interest in [random player]” rumors for granted again. A slow offseason is better than whatever this is. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. On a Judge extension. At some point in the next 11 months the Yankees will either sign Aaron Judge to a long-term extension, or he’ll become a free agent and hit the open market. He could re-sign with the Yankees after becoming a free agent the same way DJ LeMahieu did last year, but once Judge can talk to other teams, the chances he returns are reduced.

“If it was up to me, I would be a Yankee for the next 10 years, for sure,” Judge said last month, according to Bryan Hoch. “There’s no other place I really ever want to play, just based on how the fans have brought me in, embraced me, and treated me as one of their own. It’s incredible. Getting a chance to play at Yankee Stadium, that place every night basically being sold out, the fans always having your back. It’s a dream come true.”

February and March are usually extension season, so if the Yankees are going to lock up Judge before free agency, that’s when it would likely happen. Not during the season itself. The lockout will squish the offseason and turn 2-3 months worth of events (arbitration, free agency, etc.) into 2-3 weeks, so there will be more on the to-do list than a Judge extension. Post-lockout and pre-Spring Training will be a busy time.

What number works best for both sides? Does locking Judge up even make sense? The lockout is weeks away from ending, but let’s talk this all out now, because once everyone goes back to work, things are going to happen fast and furious.

What are the Yankees saying?

Judge says he wants to stay with the Yankees and I believe him. It could be he’s just saying that to improve his negotiating position against other teams next offseason (it’s good for business to keep the Yankees involved), but I think Judge is sincere and wants to remain with the Yankees. Is he willing to take a discount to do it? Eh, not necessarily, but I think he wants to stay.

The Yankees are being less forthcoming, as you’d expect. They’re not going to come out and say “yeah, we want to sign him long-term,” because that only helps Judge when the time comes to talk about a contract. The brass has made sure to praise Judge these last few weeks while also tip-toeing around the idea of locking him up for the rest of his career.

“He’s a special player, so it’s definitely a special case,” Brian Cashman told Hoch last month. “I just can’t predict or tell you how it plays out and what happens next, but I just know we’re happy we have him right now. No doubt about it.”

“Look, he’s a great Yankee. He’s one of the faces of the franchise,” Hal Steinbrenner told Ken Davidoff last month. “He’s a great leader, great in the clubhouse. (An extension is) definitely something I’m willing to talk to (Cashman) about. But nothing formal has happened yet.”

I think the most straightforward way to put it is Judge and the Yankees would both like to work out a long-term deal, but neither side is going to bend over backwards to make it happen. The Yankees have shown they will let a core player leave (see: Cano, Robinson) and Judge’s career earnings will clear $35M by the end of 2021. He’s not hurting for cash and can play hardball.

What’s a reasonable contract?

Over the last few months I’ve been saying the George Springer contract (six years and $150M) is a good benchmark for Judge. They’re both very productive all-around outfielders with some injury concerns who hit free agency following their age 30 season. The numbers:

• 2018-20 Springer: .276/.363/.512 (137 wRC+) with 75 HR and +11.5 WAR in 313 G
• 2019-21 Judge: .279/.372/.543 (145 wRC+) with 75 HR and +12.8 WAR in 278 G

Judge’s last three seasons are pretty comparable to Springer’s three seasons prior to free agency, so yes, the Springer contract is a good benchmark. I’m not saying Judge should accept exactly the Springer contract or that the Yankees should offer no more than the Springer contract. I’m just saying the conversation can start there. It puts us in the ballpark.

Marcus Semien’s contract changed the landscape. Semien signed a seven-year, $175M deal that is the Springer contract plus one more year. Semien signed after his age 30 season (like Springer last year) and was third in the AL MVP voting in 2021. Judge was fourth. Judge can point to Semien’s deal and say he’s a comparable player, and thus deserves the seventh year.

Judge is not a $300M player, he’s too old to get that much, but now that Semien’s deal is in play, his magic number might be $200M. Players in Judge’s position aren’t looking to match that other guy’s contract. They’re looking to beat it and move the salary bar up. I don’t know whether Judge is a hardcore union guy, but there’s no way the MLBPA wants a New York star to take a discount. They'll lean on him to take top dollar.

Judge will be no worse than the second best position player free agent next offseason (behind Trea Turner), so there will be a bidding war. He knows that too. Plus Judge has made good money already (don’t forget about his many endorsement deals) and may not be desperate to lock in that big deal. He has financial security already. Judge is in position to play out the year if the extension offer isn’t to his liking.

As for a $200M deal, only 18 position players have signed a $200M contract, and only six of those 18 signed at Judge’s age (or older). The six:

1. Albert Pujols: 10 years, $240M at age 32
2. Alex Rodriguez: 10 years, $275M at age 31
3. Robinson Cano: 10 years, $240M at age 31
4. Miguel Cabrera: 8 years, $248M at age 31
5. Anthony Rendon: 7 years, $245M at age 30
6. Joey Votto: 10 years, $225M at age 30

Can Judge get Rendon money? Players don’t sign the average contract projection. They sign the outlier deal. The Angels came in with the outlier deal for Rendon just like the Mariners did with Cano. Sign Judge to an extension in Spring Training and you don’t have to worry about a desperate team making a blockbuster offer and gumming up the works.

The more I think about it, the more I think $200M is the magic number. I’m not sure the Yankees could get Judge to sign long-term before free agency for less. He has leverage, and frankly the Yankees need him more than he needs the Yankees. Judge will get paid no matter what, but the Yankees can’t easily replace his near MVP caliber production. He holds the cards.

Add a year to the Semien contract and we’re at eight years and $200M. Like Semien, that deal takes Judge through his age 37 season (assuming he signs it before Opening Day). Maybe they can beef it up to $210M through a signing bonus or an option buyout or whatever. Heck, do the Brett Gardner/Darren O’Day/Justin Wilson player option trick and the Yankees can lower the luxury tax hit with a fake ninth year*.

* The Yankees have taken to tacking an extra year or two on contracts to lower the luxury tax hit. They did it with LeMahieu, they did it with Aaron Hicks, and I’m pretty sure they gave Adam Ottavino the third year for that reason too. Maybe that means eight years and $200M becomes 10 years and $200M.

Here’s where an eight-year, $200M contract would rank historically:

Largest outfielder contracts by total dollars
1. Mike Trout: 12 years, $425M
2. Mookie Betts: 12 years, $365M
3. Bryce Harper: 13 years, $330M
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 13 years, $325M
5. Christian Yelich: 9 years, $215M
6. Aaron Judge: 8 years, $210M

Largest outfielder contracts by average annual value
1. Mike Trout: $35.541M
2. Mookie Betts: $30.417M
3. Yoenis Cespedes: $27.5M
4. Bryce Harper: $25.384M
5. Aaron Judge: $25M (tied with Stanton, Josh Hamilton, and Springer)

In terms of total dollars, our hypothetical $200M deal would be the second largest contract ever given to an outfielder who has not won an MVP. Stanton won his MVP after signing his deal, and his deal carries the same annual salary as our hypothetical contract, but is five years longer because Stanton signed it when he was five years younger than Judge is now. So, it fits?

Point is, the Yankees could offer Judge eight years and $200M after the lockout, and it would be respectable. More than respectable, really. There would be no hometown discount baked in and Judge’s camp should not feel insulted. The Yankees shouldn’t jump right in with that offer. Start a little lower and work your way up, but eight years and $200M should get his attention.

Semien (and the Rangers’ desperation) raised the bar. The seventh year went from something Judge could shoot for to something he’ll expect. The Yankees could let 2021 play out and what, hope Judge plays poorly and lowers his asking price? The time to lock him up was a few years ago. Too late to do that now, and $200M might be what it takes to start the conversation.

How will Judge age?

It is impossible to answer. Judge is a monster at 6-foot-7 and 282 lbs, and he is unlike any other player in baseball history. Here is the games played leaderboard among position players age 30 and older, and listed at 6-foot-6 and 240 lbs. or more:

1. Frank Howard: 976 games after turning 30
2. Adam Dunn: 711 games
3. Corey Hart: 252 games
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 162 games (and counting)
5. Val Pascucci: 10 games
6. Brad Eldred: 5 games

That’s the entire list. Perhaps the player most comparable to Judge is Dave Winfield, who was officially listed at 6-foot-6 and 220 lbs. Winfield played a whopping 1,751 games after turning 30. That’s the best case scenario for Judge (including the Hall of Fame part). Otherwise there’s a limited track record of players this size remaining on the field and productive deep into their 30s.

But! But Judge is a unique and special player, and special players age differently than everyone else. Also, training programs and medical treatment are better than they’ve ever been. This isn’t the “run a few laps in the offseason and rub some dirt on it” era. If the Yankees invest in Judge long-term, they will ensure he has the best possible training and treatment.

Judge has had a few injuries, though some were fluky (wrist broken by a pitch, rib broken on a dive), and nothing’s chronic. He is very athletic – freakishly athletic given his size like Winfield – and he’s a hard worker. Judge has made constant adjustments throughout his career to get where he is. If the Yankees sign him and it goes bust, it won’t be because he gets complacent.

Ultimately, we have no idea how Judge will age. That’s true of most players, but Judge is such an outlier at his size. The risk is the Yankees lock up Judge and are later stuck with two huge money first base/DH types with him and Stanton. Hell, LeMahieu might finish his contract at first base too. Is it worth worrying about 2024 or 2025 when you’re trying to win while your core guys are in their primes in 2022? You have to win your first championship before worrying about your second and third.

Is this the best use of that money?

Let’s start with the obvious: Judge is a homegrown star and the Yankees should sign him for the rest of his career, and fans shouldn’t care even a tiny little bit about how much luxury tax they have to pay. The problem is the Yankees haven’t raised payroll since 2005, and I don’t think that is changing. Every dollar they give Judge is a dollar they can’t give someone else.

Objectively, letting the 30-year-old star corner outfielder walk and instead giving the money to a 27-year-old star shortstop is the smart move. I’m not sure the Yankees see it that way, and of course the 27-year-old star shortstop in this scenario is Carlos Correa. Can the Yankees afford to sign Judge and Correa? I’m willing to say yes. Would they do it? I’m pretty sure the answer is no.

Correa is the only free agent this offseason or next who I would say “if you must, let Judge walk and sign the other guy instead.” Corey Seager was in the bucket too, though he’s no longer an option. Basically, I think the Yankees have just one more big contract in them until some of their current deals expire, and for me, it’s Judge or Correa. No one else. I think there’s a strong likelihood the Yankees see it as Judge or no one else.

For a team that fancies itself a perennial World Series contender, the Yankees have a shocking number of roster needs. Not just short-term either. Best case scenario is they re-sign Judge and Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe fills shortstop in 2023. Even then, the Yankees will need at least one outfielder, a catcher, maybe a first baseman, and of course pitching depth after next season. Yeesh.

Re-sign Judge (or sign Correa) and the Yankees would have roughly $110M tied up in only five players through 2025 (Hicks, LeMahieu, Stanton, and Gerrit Cole are the other four), leaving them what, another $100M or so to cover the rest of the roster? Without a bump in payroll – a significant bump at that – you could argue letting Judge leave and spreading that money around is the best way to go. I won’t do it, but you can make that case.

The answer to the “is this the best use of that money?” question is tied to payroll. If the Yankees increase payroll in the coming years, then building a quality roster around Judge will be a piece of cake. If not, it will be a challenge. In that scenario the Yankees would essentially be a $100M or so team with five guys on the wrong side of 30 making pretty big money.

Would the Yankees trade him?

2016 says yes, 2013 says no. In 2013, Brian Cashman tried to sell Hal Steinbrenner on trading Cano at the deadline, but the owner said no. In 2016, Steinbrenner agreed to a deadline sell off. The circumstances in 2013 and 2016 were different though. Trading a star player is not the same as trading a few relievers (albeit excellent relievers) and rentals.

I think the chances the Yankees are even in position to consider trading Judge at the deadline are very small. Even with a crummy stopgap shortstop, they’re good enough to at least hang around the postseason race, and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is likely to expand the postseason. It’ll be easier to get in with those extra spots, and history tells us when the Yankees are plausibly in the race, they won’t sell.

The worst case scenario is the Yankees crash so hard they’re not even in the mix for an expanded postseason spot, and contract extension talks with Judge go irreparably south. The two sides are so far apart that Judge testing free agency is inevitable. In that case, the Yankees would have no choice but to consider trading him (hello Mariners). I don’t think this is a thing we’ll have to worry about though. If things do go horribly wrong, we can revisit this in June and July.

So what’s going to happen?

The Yankees are not overly aggressive with extensions. In the last 20 years they’ve signed six players to extensions during their team control years. The six:

• Aaron Hicks: 7 years, $70M in 2019
• Luis Severino: 4 years, $40M in 2019
• Brett Gardner: 4 years, $52M in 2014
• Robinson Cano: 4 years, $30M in 2008
• Javy Vazquez: 4 years, $45M in 2004
• Derek Jeter: 10 years, $189M in 2001

Severino and Cano signed their deals four years prior to free agency. Everyone else was one year away, so it was now or never. That’s where the Yankees are with Judge. Either sign him before Opening Day, or you have to expect him to play out the season and test free agency.

The Yankees regret three of those six contracts, including the two most recent, though that’s not a good reason to not sign Judge. Sometimes deals don’t work out. You try to learn from your mistakes and not to repeat them. What else can you do? You can’t avoid similar deals entirely. Do that and it won’t be long before you run out of ways to acquire players.

My guess is the Yankees see Judge as a special case and a player worth extending, and will discuss a long-term deal with him before Opening Day. It takes two to tango and maybe they can’t work something out, but my guess is the Yankees will try, which is more than they’ve done with most players the last two decades. At this point you have to at least try, right?

What I don’t think will happen is the Yankees caving to public pressure. My sense is fans are already unhappy with the team. Go out and call it an offseason after, say, re-signing Gardner and Anthony Rizzo, and trading for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and there will be outrage. The Yankees aren’t going to turn around and give Judge a $200M deal to placate fans though. That’s not a thing that will happen. The Yankees won’t let public outcry affect their decision-making.

So, we’ll see whether the Yankees and Judge can get a deal done before Opening Day, or even before he hits free agency. An in-season extension is unlikely only because most players typically want to focus only on baseball during the season, but it’s not impossible. Recent developments (i.e. Semien’s contract) have pushed the contract bar up, and of course the Yankees must consider how they’ll build the rest of their roster in the coming years before locking up Judge.

2. Possible free agent target: Johnny Cueto. Whenever the lockout ends, the Yankees figure to look for rotation depth, because every team looks for more rotation depth. This postseason was a war of pitching attrition. Guys like Tucker Davidson and Dylan Lee started World Series games and several pitchers started on short rest out of necessity. It was grim.

To add rotation help, the Yankees will have to either make a trade, or sign a reclamation project because the top of the free agent market has been picked clean. Among those possible reclamation projects is Reds-turned-Giants righty Johnny Cueto. Cueto, 36 in February, had a 4.08 ERA (4.05 FIP) in 114.2 innings around elbow trouble in 2021.

In his prime, Cueto was a Cy Young contender, and the Yankees usually target pitchers with pedigree as reclamation projects, like two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. They don’t futz around with the Michael Wachas of the world, you know? They bring in dudes who have pitched at a very high level and know what it takes to be great. Does Cueto make sense? Let’s look.

Another changeup master

The Yankees are all about changeups these days and Cueto is a changeup master. It has been his go-to secondary pitch most of his career, and although it sits in the low-80s rather than the upper-80s and low-90s like the power changeups the Yankees prefer, it’s still a quality pitch that fits their preferred profile. It works nicely off his fastball (GIF via Rob Friedman) …

… and Cueto throws both two and four-seamers. He also throws a slider. Cueto has four pitches and command. His 2021 pitch location heat maps are textbook. Four-seamers elevated at the letters, changeups down and away to lefties, sliders down and away to righties, and sinkers in on righties and away from lefties. This is where you want ‘em (full-size image):

Cueto’s fastball is more low-90s than mid-90s these days (he topped out at 95.4 mph in 2021), which is how it goes for a soon-to-be 36-year-old with over 2,000 innings on his arm. He still gets good separation between his fastballs and secondary pitches though, and he has that “he just knows how to pitch” element. Cueto’s a savvy veteran with know-how and guts*. That stuff matters.

* Also, Cueto's spin rates did not dip at all following the foreign substance crackdown. If he's still using sticky stuff, he's really good at hiding it.

Even at his peak, Cueto was never a high strikeout pitcher. His career best is a 25.2% strikeout rate in 2014. This year it was 20.0%. He’s not a big ground ball guy either. It was 38.1% in 2021 and 44.5% for his career. What Cueto does well is avoid walks (6.1% this year and 6.9% career) and avoid the barrel. He’s an exit velocity suppressor, another skill the Yankees value.

1. Ryan Yarbrough: 83.9 mph
2. Julio Urias: 84.6 mph
3. Zack Wheeler: 85.3 mph
4. Brandon Woodruff: 85.6 mph
…
18. Johnny Cueto: 86.7 mph
(MLB average: 88.2 mph)

That’s among the 159 pitchers with at least 500 batted balls since 2019. Cueto is not top of the line elite, but he is comfortably above-average, and in the same range as guys like Corbin Burnes (86.4 mph) and Jacob deGrom (87.1 mph). Limiting hard contact is a skill and he has it.

Cueto doesn’t miss many bats or get many grounders, but he is difficult to square up and he’s had almost no platoon split throughout his career. That’s because he has a deep arsenal and command, and he knows what he’s doing. And also because he’s deceptive as hell. Famously, Cueto alters his delivery to mess with hitters. These are three different pitches from one single at-bat (GIF via Friedman):

If nothing else, Cueto is fun and I am all for fun. There is on-field value in his shimmies though. It’s not a gimmick. Cueto makes it difficult to get comfortable in the box. He commands four pitches and it’s impossible to time his delivery because I’m not sure even he knows what delivery he’ll use from one pitch to the next. Cueto’s very unique and very fun, and by and large it works.

A scary injury history

Once a workhorse who averaged 182 innings a year from 2008-16, Cueto has been limited to only 182.2 innings in the last three 162-game seasons combined. He had Tommy John surgery in July 2018 and was out until Sept. 2019, made every start during the 60-game season a year ago, and then hit the injured list three times in 2021:

• April 15th to May 9th: Lat strain (24 days missed)
• Aug. 9th to Aug. 25th: Flexor strain (16 days missed)
• Sept. 1st to Sept. 30th: Elbow strain (29 days missed)

Cueto returned in time to pitch Game 159 (one run in 2.1 innings while on a 50-pitch limit) and it wasn’t a token “let the impending free agent show he’s healthy” outing. The Giants didn’t clinch the NL West title until the final day of the season. Cueto pitched because he was healthy and because the team felt however many innings he could give them was their best chance to win.

Needless to say, a pitcher having Tommy John surgery and then having continued elbow trouble the following seasons is bad news. Also, the lat strain wasn’t a one time thing either. Cueto missed most of the 2013 season with a series of lat strains, so the injuries he dealt with in 2021 were recurrences of issues he dealt with earlier in his career. They weren’t anything new.

The Yankees signed Kluber after he missed almost the entire shortened 2020 season with a shoulder issue because he trained with Eric Cressey, and Cressey gave them extra insight into his health and recovery. As far as I know, they have no such insight into Cueto. If he trains with Cressey, it isn’t public, and as far as I know no one in the organization has a prior history with him (coach, front office staffer, etc.). That could be a dealbreaker.

Cueto is surely signing a one-year contract at this point in his career, which mitigates the risk. If the Yankees sign him and he blows out, who cares, it’s just money. That said, you don’t want to sign a pitcher at increased risk of blowing out (which it’s fair to say Cueto is given his ongoing elbow trouble) because then you might have to replace him later. The best ability is availability.

What would it take?

As noted, Cueto is definitely getting a one-year deal this offseason as a soon-to-be 36-year-old with injury concerns. MLBTR does not have a contract projection, and FanGraphs has him at one year and $8M. Here are some other veteran starters who signed one-year reclamation project deals in recent years:

• Corey Kluber: $11M
• Drew Smyly: $11M
• Julio Teheran: $9M
• James Paxton: $8.5M
• Homer Bailey: $7M
• Chris Archer: $6.5M

Yeah, one year and $8M or so sounds about right. Maybe Cueto can talk his way up to $12M or maybe his medicals are so bad he has to settle for $4M, but this is what these pitchers get now. Sign Cueto and he won’t (or shouldn’t, anyway) stand in the way of anything else. Not when the Yankees will be over the luxury tax threshold next year. Load up on those one-year deals.

There’s one last thing we must discuss: the hair policy. It’s outdated and the Yankees should get rid of it – what is the benefit, exactly? – and this is a case where it could cost the Yankees a player. Cueto’s had his dreadlocks for a decade now and is he really going to cut them to take a one-year deal with the Yankees? He’s made over $150M in his career and he’s won a World Series (2015 Royals). If he likes his hair that much, saying no to the Yankees would be pretty easy, I reckon. I’m not sure Cueto’s chasing anything other than love of the game right now.

Ultimately, the injury history is worrisome, though Cueto does fit the Yankees as a changeup guy who limits hard contact, and has pedigree as a previously elite pitcher. Expecting him to be the No. 2 behind Cole (like the Yankees did with Kluber this past season) is unrealistic. Cueto can be an inventory arm who allows them to ease Luis Severino and Jameson Taillon into action following their surgeries, and not rely too heavily on Nestor Cortes, Domingo German, and Luis Gil.

Maybe the hair policy gets in the way. If it does, so be it. There are similar pitchers available in free agency. It just seems to me Cueto checks several boxes as far as the Yankees’ preferences go, and he’s a fun pitcher I would enjoy watching. I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Yankees don’t sign him and wouldn’t be ecstatic if they do. I can see the fit though, and at least Cueto would make the team more entertaining every fifth day.

3. Remembering a random Yankee: Mason Williams. This week’s random Yankee comes by request and is an active player, meaning he could conceivably rejoin the Yankees at some point and make himself less random. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Williams was born in Pawtucket and he comes from an athletic family. His great uncle, Walt Williams, was an outfielder who played in parts of 10 MLB seasons from 1964-75, including 125 games with the 1974-75 Yankees. His father, Derwin Williams, was a wide receiver with the Patriots from 1985-87. The family moved to Orlando when Mason was in seventh grade.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Williams the 145th best prospect in the 2010 draft class and the Yankees selected him in the fourth round, with the 145th overall pick. His signing bonus? $1.45M. Nice bit of symmetry there. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

His build evokes Doug Glanville comparisons, and Williams has some strength and a surprising feel for hitting for a high school outfielder. He's shown polish to his approach and makes consistent, hard contact with a fundamentally sound swing. His speed stands out as well, and scouts have seen him consistently above-average and occasionally even better. He has excellent range in center field as well and has above-average potential defensively with solid arm strength. Power is his only true below-average tool.

The Yankees had to give Williams an overslot bonus to buy him away from South Carolina, and they were comfortable paying him that much because they knew him better than most teams. Donny Rowland, the Yankees longtime international scouting director, had a son on Williams’ high school team and got to know him over the years.

A dominant showing with Short Season Staten Island (.349/.395/.468 in 68 games en route to being named NY Penn-League MVP) landed Williams on top 100 prospects lists after 2011. He was very good in 2012 as well, hitting .298/.346/.474 in 91 games with Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Williams the No. 32 prospect in the game going into 2013. He was two spots behind Anthony Rendon and five spots ahead of George Springer.

Williams, then 21, had a tough 2013, started with a DUI arrest in Spring Training. He authored a weak .245/.304/.337 batting line with High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton that year, fell off top 100 prospect lists, then slipped down to .223/.290/.304 with Trenton in 2014. The Yankees reportedly also pulled Williams from several games for a lack of effort that year as well.

In 2015, Williams rediscovered his game, hitting .296/.313/.376 in 31 games with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. His power had vanished (zero homers in those 31 games and nine homers total from 2013-14), but he was learning the slash-and-dash game, and he was still an excellent defensive center fielder. Williams was no longer a potential All-Star, but he was no longer a lost cause either.

At the big league level, the Yankees lost Jacoby Ellsbury to a knee injury in mid May, and then they lost Slade Heathcott to a quad strain. Ramon Flores wasn’t cutting it, so the Yankees made the switch on June 11th, sending down Flores and calling up Williams. “I started sweating,” Williams told Ryan Hatch about getting called up for the first time.

“(Williams) has been great,” Brian Cashman told CBS New York about calling Williams up. “He was a force in Double-A and he’s been a force in Triple-A. Patience is a virtue. When you are tooled-up like he is, when the mental and physical come together, you can move through the system very, very fast.”

Williams made his MLB debut at age 23 on June 12th, 2015. He started in center at Camden Yards and struck out in his first at-bat against Ubaldo Jimenez. Next time up, Williams clubbed a two-run home run to right off Ubaldo for his first career MLB hit, run, and RBI. It was also his first homer of 2015, at any level. Here’s the video. His family was in attendance too. That was neat.

“Pretty speechless,” Williams told Billy Witz after the game. “I took it all in today and embraced it. I worked hard for this. I trust the things I do. I trust my game and I trust my game all around.”

Alas, hitting your first career homer wasn’t enough to keep you in the lineup under Joe Girardi. Later that game Williams was pulled to get righty Chris Young an at-bat against the lefty T.J. McFarland with a runner on first, two outs, and the Yankees down three runs. Young did get a single in that at-bat, though the Yankees did not score and went on to lose 11-3.

The home run did earn Williams more starts though. He started six of the next seven games in center field, going 5-for-19 (.263) with three doubles. On June 19th, his season came to a premature end on a fluke play. Similar to fellow random Yankee Dustin Ackley, Williams dove back into first base on a pickoff attempt and wrecked his shoulder. Here’s the video.

"It's happened to me before. It's usually just a couple of days and I'm back to normal,” Williams told Wally Matthews about the injury, calling it a jammed shoulder. “It just feels tired. It feels like I have a heavy arm. Like my arm’s a thousand pounds. Besides that it’s pretty good.”

The Yankees placed Williams on the injured list and he started throwing three weeks after the injury, but had renewed soreness and had to shut it down. Girardi told Chad Jennings surgery was not being considered at the time. “You’re trying to keep your fingers crossed,” Girardi told Mike Zacchio a week later, when Williams was getting ready to ramp up again.

The rehab didn’t work. On July 22nd, almost exactly one month after suffering the injury, the Yankees announced Williams would undergo season-ending surgery to “clean up” his shoulder. It was not until July 2nd, 2016, that Williams returned to the field. He missed over a full year with the injury. Williams hit .298/.315/.380 in what amounted to 43 minor league rehab games that season before returning to the Yankees as a September call up.

“I’m starting to feel a lot better. I’m just happy to be here,” Williams told Brian Heyman and Dan Martin after being called up in September. “It’s been a while since I’ve been (in the big leagues). It was a long process, so it’s kind of surreal to be back. I just want to play my game and be me. I feel like if I’m myself, good things will happen.”

Williams went 8-for-27 (.296) with a double in 12 big league games the year. He started seven of the team’s final 16 games after they were eliminated from postseason contention. It wasn’t much, but it was better than nothing after missing more than a full year with the injury. Williams turned 25 late in the season and was approaching a career crossroads.

The Yankees sent Williams to Triple-A to begin 2017, his third straight season at the level, and he didn’t play well at all. He hit .243/.289/.275 in his first 59 games, was called up for six games as an emergency injury fill-in in June, then was sent back down after going 4-for-16 (.250) in five games. On June 29th, Williams was designated for assignment to clear a roster spot for Dustin Fowler. He went unclaimed on waivers and returned to Scranton as a non-40-man roster player.

All told, Williams hit .263/.309/.318 in 106 Triple-A games in 2017, then became a minor league free agent after the season. In parts of three seasons with the Yankees he hit .281/.313/.391 (88 OPS+) with the one home run in 25 games and 68 plate appearances. From top 50 prospect to replacement level up-and-down outfielder. We’ll always have that homer though.

Williams signed a minor league deal with the Reds in Nov. 2017 and he’s now, at age 30, a full-fledged journeyman. He gone from the Yankees to the Reds to the Orioles to the Mets and has appeared in the big leagues every year since 2015, including 17 games with the Mets in 2021. Hit a home run too. In Camden Yards, of course. He’s a career .265/.308/.366 (81 OPS+) hitter in 298 MLB plate appearances. Williams is currently a free agent and will surely sign another minor league contract prior to Opening Day.

“Looking for a job, staying in shape, keeping myself occupied and busy, but honestly, it was a little dry,” Williams told Jake Rill about last offseason. “After last season -- I mean, 2020 was just not a great year for a lot of people -- but there wasn’t much happening at the time. I was just staying persistent and working out in the gym.”

4. Rapid fire thoughts. As expected, the Mets named Buck Showalter their new manager over the weekend. They badly needed stability and an adult in the room and they got it with Buck. I’m not even a big Showalter fan, but seeing him and Bob Melvin get hired after the Yankees rushed to re-sign Aaron Boone is just a great big fart noise. The Yankees have the manager they deserve. I’ll leave it at that … And finally, four minor league teams, including the Staten Island Yankees, have filed a lawsuit challenging MLB’s antitrust exemption, according to Maury Brown. Here’s a primer on the antitrust exemption. Long story short, nearly a century ago the Supreme Court ruled MLB is not interstate commerce, allowing the league to act as a monopoly (and thus thwart competition, fix prices, etc.). It’s completely ridiculous and fails every common sense test, but that was the Supreme Court’s ruling. Every so often MLB runs afoul and a senator or two threatens to end the antitrust exemption, but it never happens. And every so often there’s a lawsuit challenging the antitrust exemption, but it never goes anywhere. Given the lockout, it’s possible the MLBPA could decertify and challenge the antitrust exemption (the union can’t do it, the players have to do it individually and claim the antitrust exemption has materially hurt them), and as I understand it the current makeup of the Supreme Court would give such a challenge the best chance to succeed in quite a while. That won’t happen though. The MLBPA knows the antitrust exemption makes players rich too. Anyway, I just thought I’d mention this. There’s another lawsuit challenging the antitrust exemption and I’m sure this will go like all the others before it, meaning nowhere.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)