December 17th, 2021: Conforto, Inciarte, Cordero, Garcia, Perkins, Mailbag

UPDATE: I made two screw ups in the mailbag question about important at-bats and outs. First, the Yankees lost the 1964 World Series to the Cardinals. They didn't win it. That was the end of the Mickey Mantle/Whitey Ford era dynasty. And second, Mariano Rivera got the force out at third on Jay Bell's bunt in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. He didn't take the out at first, so the runners did not advance on the play. My bad. The post has been updated below.

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Lockout, Day 15: Jameson Taillon is playing catch with a wall. Good to know it’s not just me who is going stir-crazy during the lockout. In all seriousness, Taillon has started throwing as part of his ankle surgery rehab, so that’s good. Nothing intense yet, but you have to start somewhere. Let’s get to today’s post. I went heavy on mailbag questions because there’s just nothing going on in this sport right now.

1. Possible free agent target: Michael Conforto. Early on this offseason Brian Cashman said the Yankees will “evaluate” center field, which is something he says about every position every offseason. The only actual center fielder in free agency has signed (Starling Marte) and the top trade candidates will either cost a ton (Cedric Mullins, Bryan Reynolds), are just okay (Ramon Laureano), or play for a division rival (Kevin Kiermaier).

Given that, I am in favor of moving Joey Gallo to center and bringing in a new left fielder. Gallo is a Gold Glove caliber corner outfielder with speed and range, and he’s played center before. Also, he just turned 28 last month, so he’s in his physical prime, and you only need him to do it in 2022. The Yankees can then “evaluate” center field again next offseason, when Gallo becomes a free agent. Kick the can down the road a year, basically.

Moving Gallo to center opens a world of outfield possibilities. More free agents, more trade candidates, etc. Among them: Michael Conforto. The soon-to-be former Mets outfielder is among the free agents who did not sign prior to the lockout, and he’s coming off a down, injury-interrupted season that saw him hit .232/.344/.384 (106 wRC+) with 14 homers in 479 plate appearances.

"There’s no denying that. It hasn't been what I wanted this year,” Conforto told Justin Toscano in August. "... Baseball will humble you. When you feel like you have it all figured out, people adjust, the game gets hard. You’ve just gotta keep grinding, keep working. That’s the one thing that I know is there’s never a time where you can let up on the gas, never a time that you can feel like you’ve got it all figured out. You’ve just gotta keep working."

Conforto turns 29 in March and is one of the youngest free agent position players available, at least among players who qualified for free agency (i.e. not fringy guys who were non-tendered). Carlos Correa is by far the youngest at 27 years and three months. Conforto is four days older than Kyle Schwarber, the next youngest. Does he make sense for the Yankees? Let’s look.

Swing decisions and contact quality

From 2017-20, the lefty swinging Conforto was quietly among the best hitters in baseball, hitting .265/.369/.496 (133 wRC+) in just under 2,000 plate appearances. That includes a .322/.412/.515 (158 wRC+) line during the shortened pandemic season a year ago, so you needn’t look back far to see the last time he was a well-above-average hitter.

The good news is that, despite the dip in performance, Conforto’s underlying numbers were in line with his previous four seasons this year. He’s always walked a ton (career 12.1%) with average-ish strikeout (23.8%) and swinging strike (10.5%) rates, and that was true again in 2021. Conforto didn’t chase more, didn’t lose hard-hit ability, nothing (full-size image):

(Research has shown exit velocity on a player’s top 45% of batted balls correlates much better to future performance than average or max exit velocity, and Derek Rhoads was nice enough to compile the data for the last three seasons. I don’t know what the MLB average is, but that 100.6 mph mark puts Conforto in the same range as guys like Michael Brantley, Wander Franco, and Marcus Semien.)

The plate discipline is very good. Conforto doesn’t chase often and he’ll get the bat on the ball in the zone. He doesn’t strike out excessively but he does walk excessively. The exit velocity is good too. Not elite like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton, but good. Had Conforto started chasing more or whiffing more or lost exit velocity, it would be worrisome. That didn’t happen in 2021 though. The underlying skills are still there even though the results weren’t.

There are two red flags with Conforto offensively and one really isn’t a red flag. He hits righties much better than he hits lefties. Historically, he’s been about average against lefties and much better than average against righties. A platoon split is not the end of the world, and it’s not like Conforto has been useless against lefties either. Aaron Hicks is a switch-hitter who is better against lefties, so he could serve as a natural platoon partner.

The other red flag – the actual red flag – is Conforto has struggled against velocity, even during his very best years from 2017-20. Those four years he hit .216 with a .333 SLG against 95+ mph heaters (.310 xwOBA) while missing with 24.2% of his swings. The MLB averages are a .245 AVG and .399 SLG (.318 xwOBA) with a 22.9% whiffs-per-swing rate against 95+ mph fastballs.

Conforto hits everything else well. Breaking balls, offspeed pitches, spin, sub-95 mph fastballs, you name it. He can handle all that. Run it up there in the upper-90s though, and he is more susceptible than most hitters. In this era of max effort pitchers who throw as hard as they can every pitch, that can be an issue. Not a dealbreaker, but an issue.

These days teams position their defenders where the hitter is most likely to hit the ball no matter what type of hitter he is. Conforto is a lefty who pulls most of his ground balls, so teams load up the right side of the infield, and that big shift against lefty batters seems to drive people crazy. Sign Conforto and you’ll see more of it. That said, he’s not a dead pull hitter. This is 2021:

Conforto sprays singles and doubles (and fly balls and line drives) to all fields, and his over-the-fence power is primarily to the pull field. That should make him a good match for Yankee Stadium. He’s adept at serving pitches the other way if that’s what the pitcher gives him. He’ll also yank a mistake out to right field. Just a solid all-around hitter, at least prior to 2021.

The Yankees are a station-to-station team and Conforto would not change that. He’s not a threat to steal bases (18-for-29 in his career) and his extra-base taken rate (first-to-thirds, etc.) is right at the MLB average. The all-encompassing baserunning stats at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs say Conforto is an average baserunner. On this team, average would be an upgrade.

When right, Conforto is a total package hitter with excellent plate discipline and good contact rates, the ability to use the entire field, and pull power that would fit well in a ballpark that rewards lefties who pull the ball. Conforto will ground into the shift, but that’s just baseball these days. The good version of Conforto is very good, and seeing how he’s still young and didn’t show any alarming trends in his swing decisions or contact quality in 2021, I think you’ll see more of the good version of Conforto in the future.

Left field defense

Marte will be the first legitimate center fielder (i.e. a player qualified to play the position defensively on an everyday basis) to play center field for the Mets full-time since Juan Lagares. They’ve spent most of the last decade playing guys out of position, and that includes Conforto in center for a spell. The last two years he’s played right because Dom Smith (a first baseman) and JD Davis (a third baseman) were in left. Yikes.

Conforto has not actually played left field since 2018 because again, he was shoehorned into center field as the Mets tried to hide infielders in left. I don’t think Conforto would have much trouble sliding back over to left and the numbers say he’s a below-average center fielder and about average in a corner. Statcast says his jumps aren’t great but he makes up for it with good routes and a strong arm.

The Yankees prioritize left field defense because left field is pretty big in Yankee Stadium. That’s why Brett Gardner played left and Curtis Granderson played center all those years even though Gardner was the superior defender. I also suspect that’s why they’ve kept Gallo in left rather than put him in center. They want a premium defender in their home ballpark’s most spacious field.

Conforto is an average-ish defender and maybe you don’t want an average defender in left field in Yankee Stadium. Could he play right with Judge in left? What about Conforto in center and Gallo in left? Personally, I think you just keep Judge in right, go with Gallo in center, and put Conforto in left. If you’re that worried about defense, replace him in the late innings. Easy peasy.

Defense is important but the Yankees need to do something about their offense this offseason. They were a league average offense on a rate basis this year (101 wRC+) and they were tenth in runs scored in the American League, and that was with a healthy Judge and Stanton. Hoping new hitting coaches get the underperformers on track can’t be the only solution. The Yankees can’t prioritize just defense this offseason. They need offense too.

Conforto is a bat-first player but he’s not a bat-only player. The defense isn’t great and it is likely to get worse only because defense usually doesn’t age well. He’s on the right side of 30 though, and he’s not a fish out of water in left field. Put him out there and he’s not going to kill you in the short-term. The 2022 Yankees could certainly live with a Conforto-Gallo-Judge outfield.

Injury history

Conforto has been on the injured list six times in parts of seven big league seasons though it’s really more like four times because one was a paper move and another was one big injury that spanned two seasons. Here’s the injured list history:

• 2017: Missed 12 days with a wrist contusion after being hit by a pitch.
• 2017-18: Missed the end of 2017 and the start of 2018 with shoulder surgery.
• 2019: Missed nine days with a concussion after an outfield collision.
• 2020: Missed final four days of the year with a tight hamstring.
• 2021: Missed 37 days with a hamstring strain.

Missing time because you get hit by a pitch is just bad luck. I’d say the same for running into a teammate in the outfield. Kinda dumb, but avoidable and not a common occurrence. The 2020 hamstring issue wasn’t a serious injury. Conforto had some tightness and the Mets were already eliminated, so they just shut him down for the final weekend. They put him on the injured list to free up a roster spot. Whatever.

The shoulder injury is the big injury. Conforto blew out his capsule taking a swing in Aug. 2017 (video) and had surgery, and the recovery carried over into 2018. The good (“good”) news is the injury was to his left shoulder, his back shoulder when hitting. Injuries to the front shoulder, the power shoulder, can really wreck a player. That isn’t the case here. Conforto returned in April 2018 and was productive right away, and he’s had no issues with the shoulder since.

This year’s hamstring strain happened in May, when Conforto was already 140 plate appearances into his disappointing season. It’s not like he got hurt early in the year and never got back on track. He was never on track, then he got hurt. It should also be noted Conforto had COVID right before Spring Training and his start to camp was delayed. That might explain his down year more than the hamstring, though that doesn’t mean it is the reason he had a down year.

The shoulder injury is the biggest concern and Conforto has had no issues since surgery. The rest of his injuries are baseball injuries. Sometimes you pull a hamstring, sometimes you take a pitch to the wrist, etc. I worry most about major structural issues, like Conforto’s shoulder, and chronic injuries. Constant hamstring pulls would be a big red flag. One in parts of seven seasons? Eh, it happens. Conforto is far enough away from the shoulder surgery, and the other injuries are isolated enough, that I don’t consider his injury history a dealbreaker.

Will he take a one-year contract?

I did not realize there was so little news about Conforto prior to the lockout. The latest updates in his MLBTR archive are that he received and rejected the qualifying offer. That’s it. There were no rumors or anything involving Conforto during the pre-lockout free agent frenzy. Huh.

"When players become free agents, they know where they've been, they're getting an opportunity to understand where they can go, and then they have to make that decision,” Scott Boras, Conforto’s agent, told Danny Abriano at the GM Meetings last month. “... He's open to obviously listening to the Mets and a number of other teams. He has a lot of meetings ahead of him, he really does.”

If Boras and Conforto are seeking multiple years, then forget it, the Yankees aren’t going there. I think the only outfielder they’ll sign long-term anytime soon is Judge. Would Conforto take a one-year deal and try to rebuild his stock though? Boras did it last winter with Marcus Semien, and long ago with Adrian Beltre and the Red Sox. Those two were coming off down years and boy, those one-year proven yourself deals worked out very well. Semien and Beltre had huge years and cashed in big the following offseason. Point is, Boras is open to this kinda thing.

I don’t know whether Conforto is willing to take a one-year contract. If he is, it’s tough to think of a better team to join than the Yankees. Consider:

• Yankee Stadium is a pretty great place to hit for a lefty.
• The Yankees will (most likely) give him a chance to win in 2022.
• Conforto wouldn’t even have to move or change cities.
• There’s at least one friendly face in Luis Rojas.

Rojas, the Yankees new third base coach, didn’t just manage Conforto the last two years with the Mets. He managed him during multiple stops in the minors too. Rojas’ roots are in player development and he came up through the Mets system at roughly the same time as Conforto (and also spent a year on the MLB coaching staff before taking over as manager).

I doubt Conforto will say, “oh hey, the Yankees hired Luis? I’m going there!” but having Rojas around can’t hurt (if nothing else, Rojas can give the Yankees added insight into Conforto, and sometimes that insight is a reason to avoid a player). Mostly though, Conforto would get to hit in a lefty hitter friendly ballpark and play for a team that should play meaningful games all season, and he’d stay in a familiar city too. No need to find a new place to live and no New York adjustment period necessary.

The Yankees offered Justin Verlander one year and $25M and I’m not sure it would take even that much to sign Conforto. Semien, for example, signed for less than the qualifying offer last offseason ($18M vs. $18.9M) and maybe the post-lockout market squeezes Conforto into a similar deal. He turned down the $18.4M qualifying offer. Could you get his attention with $18M? $20M?

Like I said earlier, I think the Yankees have to do something to improve the offense this winter. Judge, Stanton, and hoping everyone else gets their act together isn’t enough. My nightmare offseason would be bringing in a glove-only stopgap shortstop, re-signing the declining Anthony Rizzo, and bringing back Brett Gardner. Do that and the Yankees will have done nothing to upgrade the offense while increasing the roster’s downside risk.

I’m not sold on the Yankees giving a long-term contract to Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, or Trevor Story at this point. If Story settles for a one-year deal and they can swing a trade for Matt Olson, then great, do that. If that doesn’t happen, then the outfield is really the only place the Yankees could make a meaningful offensive upgrade, and we know the center field market stinks. The corner outfield market is much stronger.

Given the roster, the Yankees have to prioritize shortstop. They have no answers there. You could do worse than starting 2022 with Luke Voit at first and Hicks in center, but they literally do not have a shortstop. If they miss out on Correa and Story and go the stopgap route, then they have to add offense elsewhere. Conforto, assuming he is willing to take a one-year deal, brings power and plate discipline, and familiarity with the market. He would be my No. 1 corner outfield target if the Yankees are willing to move Gallo to center.

2. Latest minor league signings. The lockout is ongoing but the minor league signings keep trickling in. The Yankees signed catcher Rob Brantly, infielder Jose Peraza, and righties Vinny Nittoli and Emmanuel Ramirez to minor league deals earlier this offseason. Here are the latest signings via the official site.

Yankees sign Inciarte

Brian Cashman said the Yankees will “evaluate” center field this offseason and that evaluation has led them to veteran Ender Inciarte. The just turned 31-year-old was released by the Braves in July (rough timing, huh?) and then spent a few weeks in Triple-A with the Reds before they released him in August. A tale of two careers:

• 2015-17: .300/.347/.400 (98 wRC+) in 1,857 PA
• 2018-21: .248/.317/.363 (82 wRC+) in 1,110 PA

2018-20 was the peak of the rocket ball era, yet Inciarte’s bat went south. He was sneaky good earlier in his career (+11.7 WAR from 2015-17) thanks to average offense and very good center field defense. Not a star but a rock solid bottom of the order guy.

Inciarte still rates as above-average defensive center fielder. Not Gold Glove caliber like earlier in his career, but above-average. He’s a lefty hitter with a history of low strikeout rates and positive baserunning value, but little power. Inciarte is a potential fourth outfielder should Brett Gardner not return in 2022. More likely, he will be the veteran outfielder in Triple-A, like Greg Allen and Ryan LaMarre this past season.

Given his big league time (more than 800 games), Inciarte’s deal surely includes an invite to big league camp, though teams can not officially give those out until the lockout ends. I hereby declare Inciarte the early favorite to be the non-roster guy who has an out-of-nowhere great camp, resulting in at least one “he’s better than Joey Gallo” article.

Yankees sign Cordero

I’m mad at myself for not seeing this one coming. The Yankees have signed former White Sox righty reliever Jimmy Cordero to a minor league deal, presumably with an invite to big league camp. The just turned 30-year-old had Tommy John surgery in March, so he’s still rehabbing. With any luck he’ll be a big league option sometime around the All-Star break.

Cordero had an unsightly 6.07 ERA in 2020, but a few bad outings in a 60-game season will do that. From 2019-20, he managed a 3.99 FIP with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate but also a 54.7% ground ball rate and elite contact management. The exit velocity allowed leaderboard from 2019-20 (min. 150 batted balls):

1. Justin Wilson: 83.7 mph
2. Ryan Yarbrough: 83.8 mph
3. Julio Urias: 84.5 mph
4. Kenley Jansen: 84.5 mph
5. Jimmy Cordero: 85.0 mph

Like most Yankees relievers these days, Cordero operated with an upper-90s sinker before his elbow ligament gave out, and he also throws both a slider and a changeup in the upper-80s. He did something with his slider in the middle of 2020 and suddenly got more movement on the pitch, so we’ll see whether he sticks with that, goes back to his old slider, or emphasizes the changeup once he's healthy. Here's video.

Also, when you go see Cordero pitch, you have to buy a ticket to the gun show. The dude is built and not afraid to show it:

(Cordero told James Fegan he hikes up his sleeves because he's more comfortable that way, but White Sox fans liked it and he became a bit of a cult hero, so he kept doing it.)

For all intents and purposes, Jimmy Biceps is the post-Tommy John surgery minor league contract version of Clay Holmes. Overall numbers that make you go meh, but very good power stuff that doesn’t need much refinement. Cordero is already really good at getting grounders and limiting hard contact. If the Yankees can get him to add strikeouts the way they did Holmes, then they’ll really have something. And if it doesn’t work out, oh well. Just a minor league deal.

Cordero, I should note, will remain under team control through 2025 as an arbitration-eligible player should this work out. He also has a minor league option remaining, so that’s one year of being able to shuttle him up and down, if necessary. The White Sox non-tendered Cordero because Jerry Reinsdorf is cheap and they didn’t want to pay an injured reliever a projected $1.2M in 2022. Their loss is potentially the Yankees’ gain. Love this signing, even with the understanding that it’s just a minor league deal for an injured guy.

Garcia returns

Wilkerman, in this case. Garcia, now 23, was part of the ill-fated 2014-15 international class and he had a huge debut season after signing for $1.35M. He hit .299/.414/.362 (140 wRC+) with more walks (15.8%) than strikeouts (12.0%) as a 17-year-old in the old Gulf Coast League in 2015, and that landed him all over top 10 Yankees prospect lists (I ranked him No. 8 in the system in 2016).

Alas, Garcia stopped hitting and stopped developing after that. Good reminder to not fall in love with rookie ball walk rates. Garcia has hit .227/.272/.313 (69 wRC+) since his big debut in 2015 and he has yet to make it out of Single-A. He did not play at all in 2021 due to an unknown injury, though the injury obviously wasn’t severe enough to scare the Yankees away. He’s back in the fold.

The Yankees had several fringy infield prospects break out in 2021 (Oswaldo Cabrera, Diego Castillo, Hoy Jun Park, etc.) and that’s a reason to hope Garcia can revive his career with good health in 2022. Otherwise he hasn’t played in actual games since 2019 and hasn’t played well since 2015, so he’s an organizational guy until further notice. Prospects, eh? They’ll break your heart.

(Dermis Garcia, the other notable Garcia in the 2014-15 international class, signed a minor league deal with the Athletics a few weeks ago. He won’t be coming back like Wilkerman.)

Yankees sign Perkins

Two years ago the Yankees took a shot on outfielder Thomas Milone, a relatively high draft pick (third round in 2013) who had stalled out in another organization. It didn’t work out with Milone, but they’re trying that again with outfielder Blake Perkins, a second round pick in 2015. The Nationals drafted him, traded him to the Royals for Kelvin Herrera at the 2018 deadline, and then he became a minor league free agent this offseason.

Perkins, now 25, spent 2021 at Double-A, hitting .202/.319/.331 (81 wRC+) with seven home runs and nine steals in 72 games. He struck out (28.9%) and walked (14.3%) a lot. It’s been a while since he appeared on any kind of prospect list. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him the No. 26 prospect in Kansas City’s system in 2019. A snippet of their scouting report:

Drawing multiple comparisons to major league outfielder Jon Jay, Perkins best fits the profile of a fourth outfielder if he can make a significant improvement at the plate. He's a glove-first player, a plus defender in center field with mature instincts, excellent routes and an above-average arm. He controls the strike zone well … (He) needs to make more contact in order to take advantage of his above-average speed. He has no power. He also needs to improve his instincts on the bases.

As noted earlier, the Yankees had success getting a few of these fringy long lost prospect types to improve their hitting ability in 2021, and they’ll try to do it again with Perkins. Get him to hit even a little bit, and hey, you might have found a cheap future fourth outfielder. When you’ve had luck teaching guys to hit, scooping up stud defenders makes sense.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Something to put on the radar: Canada will require all international travelers, including professional athletes, to be fully vaccinated to enter the country as of Jan. 15th, according to Shi Davidi. Lots can change between now and Opening Day – MLB has the luxury of time here, the NBA and NHL are having this dropped on them in the middle of their seasons – but it is entirely possible teams will have to go into Toronto to play the Blue Jays next season without key players because they’re not vaccinated and can’t enter the country (Davidi says Toronto’s current roster is fully vaccinated and vaccination status is a consideration in their offseason moves). That could be a pretty significant competitive advantage! Several players around the league have come out and said they’re not vaccinated (like Chris Sale), but no Yankees. Unless Canada changes its requirements again (always possible given how much this stuff changes), we may find out which (if any) Yankees are unvaccinated because they won't be able to play the Blue Jays on the road. As usual, the Yankees will make three trips to Toronto next season: May 2-4, June 17-19, and Sept. 26-28.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Paul asks: I haven't really heard a lot about how negotiations are going. Is that because they aren't happening, or (optimistic view) because they're actually going ok and neither side wants to start sniping through the media?

As I understand it MLB and the MLBPA are doing the bare minimum. The National Labor Relations Board requires the two sides to continue good faith negotiations and apparently that’s all they’re doing. Enough to say “hey look, we’re trying.” There can’t be a strike or a lockout in which negotiations cease. It’s against the law and MLB and MLBPA are doing what they have to do to avoid a fine.

Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) says MLB and the MLBPA will get serious about core economic issues (the most important stuff) sometime after New Years. There’s just no urgency right now. Games aren’t being missed and this wouldn’t even be the busy time of the offseason. These few weeks between the Winter Meetings and January are usually slow. There’s no reason to rush.

Assuming another five-year term, the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement will cover over $50 billion in revenue and you have to get that deal right, so take as long as you need. But also, hurry the hell up, this lockout is unbelievably boring. For now, nothing substantive is going on. It’ll be another few weeks before the two sides really get down to business.

(I heard secondhand that one team’s front office resumed in-person meetings earlier this week, so maybe that’s good news for CBA talks? I dunno.)

Anonymous asks: Do you believe that owners and GMs discuss trade proposals with their peers during the lockout?

Oh sure, and they’re allowed to as well. Teams can not consummate any trades that involve the 40-man roster during the lockout, but they can discuss (and even agree to) trades. One possible hold up is medicals. I don’t know whether teams can exchange player medical information during the lockout, and if not, that could hold up the trade process. Also, teams can’t ask a player (or even reach out to his agent) about waiving his no-trade clause.

Trade discussions between front offices are fair game during the lockout and I’m certain they’re happening. The Athletics didn’t move any of their players before the lockout and they’re probably working the phones now. Maybe we will see a big rush of trades in the first few hours after the lockout ends? That’d be kinda fun. Pre-lockout free agent frenzy then a post-lockout trade frenzy. Maybe the Yankees will even get involved this time.

Jonathan asks: Would you buy low on Christian Yelich with the thought that 2021 was an aberration?  While he hasn't really played CF since 2018, having him with Gallo and Hicks as the 4th OF would provide tremendous roster flexibility and if he returns to his former self, (Ken Singleton: LOOK OUT!).

I will say upfront this question requires more analysis than I’m willing to put into it given how unlikely it is to happen. I’m a big Yelich fan. He was the centerpiece of my 2017-18 Offseason Plan because I believed there was a breakout coming given his plate discipline, the quality of his contact, and his overall hitting acumen and athleticism. I’d be lying if I said I knew he would become this good though. He hit .327/.415/.631 (170 wRC+) with 80 homers from 2018-19.

Over the last two years though, Yelich has dipped to .234/.360/.391 (105 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 722 plate appearances. That includes .248/.362/.373 (101 wRC+) with nine home runs this season. Milwaukee is a pretty good place to hit, and it’s not like he had to face the Brewers pitching staff (Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, etc.) in that mediocre division either. From MVP caliber to nine homers in 475 plate appearances this year. Goodness.

Yelich fouled a pitch into his leg and broke his kneecap in Sept. 2019 and he hasn’t been the same hitter since, either coincidentally or because the injury screwed him up. His exit velocity and plate discipline and all that are still good. He is hitting a ton of ground balls again though (Yelich went from 55% grounders with the Marlins to closer to 45% during his MVP caliber years), and that’s cut into his home run production. Can we blame the uptick in grounders on the injury?

The Brewers signed Yelich to a nine-year, $215M extension in March 2020 and he still has seven years and $188.5M to go. Him being a merely ordinary player going forward is a terrifying proposition for the Brewers, who only three times in their history have had a $100M+ payroll. That deal going bad would cripple the Brewers the way some people think Giancarlo Stanton’s contract cripples the Yankees. Yelich eats up roughly 20% of the team’s payroll.

Two things. First, had Yelich not signed that extension, he would have been going into his free agent year in 2022, and gosh, that would have been fascinating. A rebound to 2018-19 levels would have made him the most coveted free agent on the market next offseason. But another league average-ish season and I’m not sure how we’d view him as a free agent. That’ll go down as one of baseball’s great “what if” scenarios.

And two, are the Brewers scared enough by these last two seasons that they’d move Yelich now to avoid paying out the rest of that contract? Another mediocre season in 2022 and he might be unmovable (no one is truly unmovable, but you know what I mean), so it could be now or never. Would something like this work?

• Yankees get: Yelich
• Brewers get: Aaron Hicks, Zack Britton, prospects

That would actually save the Brewers money in 2022 (Yelich is owed $26M next season while Hicks and Britton are at $24.5M combined), and they would save $133.5M total over the next seven years*. How good would the prospects to fill out the rest of the package have to be when you’re absorbing $133.5M and the other team is apparently desperate to unload the contract? Surely not Anthony Volpe caliber, right?

* To be exact, the trade would save the Brewers $1.5M in 2022, $15.5M in 2023, $16.5M in 2024 and 2025, $25M in 2026, $26M in 2027 and 2028, and $6.5M in 2029.

The Yankees aren’t going for this, obviously. If they’re going to commit $100M+ to an outfielder anytime soon, it will be Aaron Judge. Maybe they’re unable to work out an extension with Judge and pivot to Yelich next offseason to replace him? That’s a tough one. The better Yelich plays, the more he’ll cost to acquire and the less the Brewers will want to trade him. And the worse he plays, the less he is a viable replacement for Judge.

Without knowing the exact trade package, I’m going to say no, I would not buy low on Yelich. And heck, I’m not sure we could even call it buying low given that contract. The sudden and drastic decline the last two years is worrisome. Yelich turned only 30 earlier this month and a rebound at that age is certainly possible, but betting over $100M on it? It ain’t my money, but boy, that’s a potential disaster contract there. I’d pass.

Anonymous asks: You know what's worse than strikeouts? Hitting into double plays. And the Yankees hit into an awful lot of them this year. Who were the worst offenders? And what, if anything, can the Yankees do to cut down on these next year?

Double plays are worse than strikeouts both in terms of the on-field result and also the viewing experience. The team puts a guy(s) on base and you’re hoping runs are on the way then BAM, rally killed, just like that. Double plays are the worst. The Yankees did not lead baseball in double plays this past season, but they came close:

1. Nationals: 158
2. Yankees: 154
3. White Sox: 139
4. Astros: 136
5. Cubs: 133

There’s usually a team(s) with 150+ double plays each season, so 154 isn’t historically significant or anything. It’s not even a franchise record. The 2004 Yankees grounded into 157 double plays. That said, the 2017-19 Yankees averaged only 113 double plays per season, so it is a huge uptick for this group of players (they were at a 137.7 pace during the shortened 2020 season).

Raw double play totals are not the best way to evaluate double play susceptibility though. The Astros hit into the fourth most double plays this year, but they also put 179 more runners on base than the Yankees, so they had more opportunities. Here are double plays per opportunity (“opportunity” is defined as an at-bat with a runner at first with less than two outs):

1. Yankees: 13.1%
2. Nationals: 12.8%
3. Cubs: 11.7%
4. Twins: 11.3%
5. White Sox: 11.2%
   (MLB average: 9.8%)

Gah. That 13.1% is the highest double play rate in a 162-game season since the Royals (13.7%) and Blue Jays (13.3%) in 2017. I should note the league average was 11.0% that year as well. The rise in strikeouts and fly balls have reduced the number of double plays in general. The 2021 Yankees found a way though.

Before looking up the numbers, my guess was Giancarlo Stanton was the team’s biggest double play culprit in 2021. Stanton’s awesome, but it felt like he banged into a lot of double plays, and sure enough he led the team with 22 (no one else had more than 16). That was tied for the third most in baseball. Jose Abreu had 28 and Juan Soto had 23. Here are the Yankees’ biggest double play culprits (min. 200 plate appearances):

1. Luke Voit: 23.1%
2. Clint Frazier: 22.2%
3. Giancarlo Stanton: 18.2%
4. Gary Sanchez: 17.1%
5. Gio Urshela: 16.3%

Up the minimum to 400 plate appearances and Voit and Frazier fall off that list, and Gleyber Torres (11.4%) and Aaron Judge (11.0%) join it. Only four players batted at least 200 times for the 2021 Yankees and had a better than league average double play rate: Kyle Higashioka (9.3%), Joey Gallo (8.8%), Rougned Odor (4.3%), and Brett Gardner (3.6%).

The 2021 Yankees were almost designed to hit into double plays. The lineup was predominantly right-handed and slow, so the defense had plenty of time to turn two, and they hit an awful lot of ground balls for some reason. That last part is unusual. Their 43.4% team ground ball rate was north of their 42.1% rate from 2017-19, and it was especially bad with runners on base and less than two outs:

• 2021: 42.1%
• 2020: 39.6% (short season)
• 2019: 40.4%
• 2018: 40.8%
• 2017: 41.1%

The increase from 2019, the last full 162-game season, to 2021 was almost two full percentage points. How do the Yankees fix this? Well, start with some new players, first and foremost. Cut down on the number of lumbering righty hitters and you’ll hit into fewer double plays. The only problem is the Yankees are locked into several of those players. Judge and Stanton (and DJ LeMahieu) aren’t going anywhere and the options to replace Sanchez are limited.

The Yankees blamed the down offensive season (not just the double plays, but the offense in general) on former hitting coaches Marcus Thames and P.J. Pilittere. That’s why they’re being replaced. Changing players would help more, though there’s only so much that can be done there. 2021 was out of character for this group. They didn’t hit into this many double plays the last few years, and it seems the hope is the new hitting coaches will get them back to their pre-2021 ways. Will it work? Eh, better hope so.

George asks: I happen to like Gallo and hope he stays. Do you think Yanks keep him, and if so, is it realistic to think a coach can reduce his strikeouts and improve his pitch recognition, if that is the problem?

Never say never, but there’s no indication the Yankees are looking to move Joey Gallo. They will listen to offers for him because they listen to offers for every player, and that’s it. They traded for him with the idea of having his lefty power and on-base ability and defense in the lineup in 2022, and hopefully picking up a draft pick when he becomes a free agent next offseason.

Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) wrote a good article about Gallo over the summer and he is very aware of who he is as a player. “I think my whole career has been people misunderstanding me as a player. I think a lot of people think I’m just a big donkey, but I care a lot about being a really good baseball player and being intelligent on the field. I just have a pretty weird skill set,” he said.

Gallo told Adler he tried to cut down on strikeouts earlier in his career, especially when he got to Triple-A in 2015. He hit .314/.425/.636 (192 wRC+) at Double-A that year, got moved up to Triple-A, then everyone tried to change him and he hit .195/.289/.450 (90 wRC+). From Adler:

“I tried to change. I tried to move with the trend and I listened to people who would say, ‘It’s embarrassing you’re striking out 40 percent of the time,’ and I thought, ‘I’ve gotta shorten up, I’ve gotta slap the ball on the ground,’ and I ended up getting worse,” Gallo said.

“After I struggled my first two years in the big leagues, I remember just pretty much looking in the mirror, and I couldn’t really stand myself because I didn’t even know what kind of player I was anymore.”

Gallo hit .173/.281/.368 in 153 plate appearances between 2015 and 2016. He hit seven home runs and struck out 76 times.

“In 2017, I just said, ‘I don’t care at this point,’” Gallo said. “If I hit .180, if I never play anything again, I’m going to play the game the way I play the game. I ended up hitting 41 home runs and my OPS stayed near .870 the whole year and it worked. I hit .209, but I ended up being a highly productive player. So I thought, ‘This might work. Maybe I need to make some tweaks here and there, but this is still productive.’ I had to go through a lot of trials and tribulations to get to that point.”

Maybe a few adjustments can get Gallo’s in-zone contact rate up to, say, 75% or 80% rather than a league worst 71% (MLB average is 84.1%), but I don’t think there’s any “fixing” this guy. He is who he is, and that’s a flawed and aesthetically displeasing but also very productive player. To Gallo’s credit, he’s maxed out his skill set. Swing decisions are excellent (he rarely chases out of the zone), top of the line power, fantastic defense, very good baserunning. He gets the most out of his talent.

And Gallo had to max out his skill set to stick in the big leagues as long as he has. You can’t hit .200 or so with a near 40% strikeout rate as a corner outfielder and stay in the league without doing a ton of other things at a very high level, and Gallo does. I get that many fans are down on him after this year, but he’s a .200 hitter who hit .160 for two months. It happens. The difference between his .160 AVG and a .200 AVG was eight hits. One a week, basically.

Given the nature of his game, Gallo will have more haters than fans because he can be a tough watch. It is what it is. He’s tried to change who he is as a player to make more contact and it didn’t work, so he’s embraced what he can do. Maybe the Yankees new hitting coaches can coax more contact out of him. At this point in his career though, it seems like this is the best version of Gallo. It’s not pretty but the overall production is pretty damn good.

Sean asks: Who was the international prospect the Yankees were planning to sign next to Jasson Dominguez in that class, but lost, and how is his early career going?

Jhon Diaz. The Yankees reportedly had a $1.2M deal in place with the Dominican outfielder, but they were unable to trade for enough bonus pool space before the 2019 trade deadline, and the Rays swooped in and signed him with a $1.5M bonus. Baseball America ranked Diaz the No. 28 prospect in Tampa’s system going into 2020. FanGraphs had him at No. 26.

Diaz spent the pandemic season at home and then this year he hit .176/.298/.252 (67 wRC+) with a 30.4% strikeout rate in 45 games in the Dominican Summer League. Considering Diaz was said to be more advanced than the typical international free agent – “Diaz has more present skill than he does physical projection, atypical for the July 2 market,” wrote FanGraphs in 2020 – that’s pretty terrible. It would be terrible even for a prospect who wasn’t considered advanced.

I’m willing to cut guys slack following the lost pandemic season, especially kids who are so early in their careers and have limited experience. Diaz turned only 19 in October and tons – TONS – of guys have rebounded from poor showings in the DSL. He’s talented and he needs time. For now though, Diaz has not appeared on a top 30ish prospects list since last spring.

Jonathan asks: What was the single most important at bat by a Yankee in Yankee history? What was the single most important out recorded by a Yankee pitcher in Yankee history?

Boy, this is tough. The Yankees have been around forever and they’ve won way, way more championships than any other team, so it’s difficult to say which at-bat and which out is most important. For many teams it’s easy. Howie Kendrick’s go-ahead home run off the foul pole in Game 7 of the 2019 World Series is the most important at-bat for the Expos/Nationals. Boom. Piece of cake.

We can use championship probability added to at least get us in the ballpark, right? Here are the biggest hits in Yankees history using CPA (full list):

1. Yogi Berra: +34.3% (go-ahead three-run homer in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series)
2. Bob Meusel: +26.9% (go-ahead three-run single in Game 6 of the 1923 World Series)
3. Elston Howard: +26.3% (go-ahead one-run single in Game 7 of the 1958 World Series)
4. Charlie Keller: +25.1% (go-ahead two-run double in Game 4 of the 1941 World Series)
5. Tom Tresh: +24.2% (game-tying two-run homer in Game 5 of the 1964 World Series)

No. 6 is Scott Brosius’ game-tying two-run homer in Game 5 of the 2001 World Series (+24.1%, video), and No. 7 is Alfonso Soriano’s go-ahead homer in Game 7 of that same series (+23.1%, video). What a tremendous series. Too bad the Yankees lost.

Anyway, it's kinda messed up that, at least according to CPA, the biggest hit in Yankees history came in a loss. Game 7 of the 1960 World Series is the Bill Mazeroski game. Yogi’s home run gave the Yankees a 5-4 lead in the sixth inning (video), but the game was tied 9-9 going into the bottom of the ninth when Mazeroski hit his legendary walk-off homer.

The Yankees won the next three World Series on that list, thanks largely to those hits. Meusel’s single turned a 4-3 deficit into a 6-4 lead in the eighth (there was an error on the play that allowed the third run to score), and six outs later the Yankees were champs. Howard’s single gave the Yankees a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning of the series-clincher. Keller’s double turned a 4-3 deficit into a 5-4 lead in the eighth, and the Yankees won the series in the next game. Tresh’s hit tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, but the Cardinals came back to win in the tenth, and later won the series.

This is obviously up for debate, but I would say Meusel’s go-ahead single in 1923 is the most important hit (or at-bat) in franchise history. It gave the Yankees the lead in the series-clinching game and that was the franchise’s first title. They’d lost the previous two World Series and were still a few years away from taking over as the sport’s dominant franchise. That hit got them over the hump.

As for the biggest outs recorded in Yankees history, here’s what CPA says (full list):

1. Ralph Terry: +24.1% (Willie McCovey line out to end Game 7 of 1962 World Series)
2. Mariano Rivera: +18.7% (Jay Bell bunt in Game 7 of 2001 World Series)
3. Jim Coates: +13.9% (Rocky Nelson fly out in Game 7 of 1960 World Series)
4. Bob Kuzava: +13.3% (Jackie Robinson pop up in Game 7 of 1952 World Series)
5. Allie Reynolds: +13.2% (Gil Hodges double play in Game 7 of 1952 World Series)

No. 7 is John Wetteland getting Javy Lopez to hit a ground ball to third base with a runner on third and one out in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the 1996 World Series. Chipper Jones could not score on the play and the Yankees held on to win the game 1-0. Here’s the video.

The No. 1 play is pretty straightforward. The Yankees had a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning of Game 7, the Giants had runners on second and third with two outs, and McCovey lined out to second to end the game and the series. Here’s the video. The No. 2 play, man, that’s a tough one to swallow. Mark Grace started the ninth inning with a single, Rivera threw the ball away on Damian Miller’s bunt attempt, then Bell bunted into a force out at third to keep the runners at first and second with one out. Getting the out without the runners advancing greatly improved the Yankees’ chances of winning, but dice.

The No. 3 play also happened in the Mazeroski game and it’s an important out that was made less important by what happened afterward. The Yankees were up 7-5 in the eighth inning but the Pirates had runners at second and third with one out. Coates got Nelson to fly out for the second out. It was an important out! Then Pittsburgh scored four runs later in the inning anyway. The Yankees tied it in the top of the ninth, then Mazeroski won it in the bottom half.

The Nos. 4 and 5 plays happened in the same game and the No. 5 play happened first. The Yankees had a 3-2 lead in the sixth when Hodges hit into a double play with Roy Campanella at first (video). Then, in the seventh, Kuzava got Duke Snider (video) and Robinson (video) to pop up on the infield with the bases loaded. Some light work there, huh? Kuzava kept two Hall of Famers on the infield with a one-run lead and the bases loaded in Game 7 of a World Series. The Snider pop up is No. 6 on the CPA list (+13.1%), so three of the six biggest outs in Yankees history came in the span of eight batters. Wild.

Which out is the most important? Eh, tough to say. I’ll go off the board with Johnny Murphy striking out Mark Koenig in Game 6 of the 1936 World Series. The Yankees were up 5-4 in the seventh inning, but the Giants had the bases loaded and were threatening. Murphy struck out Koenig to end the inning, the Yankees went on to win the game to clinch the series,. It was the first of four straight World Series titles and six in eight years. That’s when the Yankees took over as the sport’s premier franchise. Koenig gets a hit there and everything changes. This out is No. 20 on the CPA list at +8.5%.

The downside of using CPA for an exercise like this is it removes all the emotion, and that’s the entire point of all this, right? To feel the highs and lows, to experience that elation when the team gets a big hit or a big out. CPA says Chad Green striking out Byron Buxton and Jason Castro with runners on second and third and one out in the first inning of the 2017 Wild Card Game wasn’t that big a deal (+1.1% combined), but it sure as hell was a Big Deal.

I’d say the biggest Yankees hit of my lifetime (I’m an 80s baby) is the Jim Leyritz home run. The Yankees trailed 6-0 early in Game 4 of the 1996 World Series and they were five outs away from a 3-1 series deficit when Leyritz hit his game-tying home run (video). At +11.9%, it checks in at 56th on the CPA leaderboard. It was also the Yankees biggest hit by CPA since 1978 at the time, so it had been a while since we’d seen a hit that dramatic.

As for the biggest out of my lifetime, I think it’s the Flip Play (video)? I feel like not enough context is ever given when that play is discussed or shown on a broadcast or whatever. The Yankees were down 2-0 in the ALDS! They were nursing a 1-0 lead in the seventh inning against a 102-win team! The season was on the line. The Flip Play is about so much more than Jeter being where shortstops usually aren’t. The Yankees didn’t win the World Series that year and maybe that dampens it a bit, but I don't think so. It was a season-saver, yet the CPA is only +0.33%. lol.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)